the study of population introduction to population change

The Study of PopulationThe Study of Population

Introduction to Population ChangeIntroduction to Population Change

What is Human Geography?What is Human Geography?

• Human Geography is a branch of Geography Human Geography is a branch of Geography that combines the study of economic and that combines the study of economic and cultural geography to explore the cultural geography to explore the relationships between humans and their relationships between humans and their natural environment, and to track the broad natural environment, and to track the broad social patterns that shape human societies.social patterns that shape human societies.

ImmigrationImmigration

• Movement from somewhere in the world to Movement from somewhere in the world to Canada (for a period longer than one year).Canada (for a period longer than one year).

– Ex. On an average day, 655 people immigrated to Ex. On an average day, 655 people immigrated to Canada over the course of one year....our rate of Canada over the course of one year....our rate of immigration is roughly 0.7%immigration is roughly 0.7%

EmigrationEmigration

• Movement from Canada to somewhere else Movement from Canada to somewhere else in the world (for a period longer than one in the world (for a period longer than one year).year).

– Ex. On an average day, 107 people emigrated Ex. On an average day, 107 people emigrated from Canada over the course of one year...our from Canada over the course of one year...our emigration rate is roughly 0.2%emigration rate is roughly 0.2%

Birth Rate (BR)Birth Rate (BR)

• The relationship between the number of The relationship between the number of births in Canada and the size of the births in Canada and the size of the population. It gives the number of births per population. It gives the number of births per 1,000 people in Canada.1,000 people in Canada.

– Ex. Canada’s birth rate is roughly 10 births per Ex. Canada’s birth rate is roughly 10 births per 1,000 people.1,000 people.

Canadian and American Birth Rates since 1940Canadian and American Birth Rates since 1940

Number of births per 1,000 people – The darker green, the more births...Number of births per 1,000 people – The darker green, the more births...

Number of births per female – The darker green, the more children per female...Number of births per female – The darker green, the more children per female...

Death Rate (DR)Death Rate (DR)

• The relationship between the number of The relationship between the number of deaths in Canada and the size of the deaths in Canada and the size of the population. It gives the number of deaths population. It gives the number of deaths per 1,000 people in Canada.per 1,000 people in Canada.

– Ex. Canada’s death rate is roughly 7 deaths per Ex. Canada’s death rate is roughly 7 deaths per 1,000 people.1,000 people.

Number of deaths per 1,000 babies born – The darker red, the more deaths...Number of deaths per 1,000 babies born – The darker red, the more deaths...

Natural Increase RateNatural Increase Rate• The Natural Increase Rate (NIR) is the The Natural Increase Rate (NIR) is the

difference between the number of births per difference between the number of births per 1,000 people in Canada and the number of 1,000 people in Canada and the number of deaths per 1,000 people in Canada.deaths per 1,000 people in Canada.

• Natural Increase Rate = Birth rate – Death Natural Increase Rate = Birth rate – Death raterate= 10/1000 – 7/1000= 10/1000 – 7/1000= 3/1000= 3/1000

Therefore the NIR for Canada is 0.3 % Therefore the NIR for Canada is 0.3 %

Population Change in Canada until 2051Population Change in Canada until 2051

Net Migration RateNet Migration Rate

• The Net Migration Rate (NMR) is the The Net Migration Rate (NMR) is the difference between the immigration rate and difference between the immigration rate and the emigration rate.the emigration rate.

• Net Migration Rate = Imm. Rate – Emig. RateNet Migration Rate = Imm. Rate – Emig. Rate= 7/1000 – 2/1000 = 7/1000 – 2/1000 = 5/1000= 5/1000

Therefore the Net Migration Rate is 0.5%Therefore the Net Migration Rate is 0.5%

World Net Migration RateWorld Net Migration Rate

Brown = More EmigrationBrown = More Emigration Green = About EqualGreen = About Equal Blue = More ImmigrationBlue = More Immigration

Population Growth RatePopulation Growth Rate

• The Population Growth Rate (PGR) is the Natural The Population Growth Rate (PGR) is the Natural Increase Rate added together with the Net Increase Rate added together with the Net Migration RateMigration Rate

• Population Growth Rate = NIR + NMRPopulation Growth Rate = NIR + NMR= 3/1000 + 5/1000= 3/1000 + 5/1000= 8/1000= 8/1000

Therefore our Population Growth Rate in Canada is Therefore our Population Growth Rate in Canada is roughly 0.8%roughly 0.8%

World Population Growth RateWorld Population Growth Rate

Blue Blue / Purple = / Purple = Small Growth or Declining PopulationSmall Growth or Declining PopulationLight BlueLight Blue / Green = / Green = Steady GrowthSteady Growth

Yellow = Yellow = Rapidly Increasing PopulationRapidly Increasing Population

Doubling Time and the Rule of 70Doubling Time and the Rule of 70• Doubling time is as simple as the name suggests; Doubling time is as simple as the name suggests;

it is the amount of time is takes a countries it is the amount of time is takes a countries population to double from its existing amount...population to double from its existing amount...

• You can use the Rule of 70 to figure it You can use the Rule of 70 to figure it out...simply divide 70 by the Population Growth out...simply divide 70 by the Population Growth RateRate

• In Canada that is 70/0.8% = 87.5 YearsIn Canada that is 70/0.8% = 87.5 Years– Depending on immigration levels that may go up or Depending on immigration levels that may go up or

down (i.e. It could happen faster than 87.5 yrs)down (i.e. It could happen faster than 87.5 yrs)

World Population: ~6,700,000,000 (Feb. ’08) World Population: ~6,700,000,000 (Feb. ’08)

Population ChangesPopulation Changes• There is the assumption that because young There is the assumption that because young

children and the very elderly do not work on children and the very elderly do not work on a full-time basis that they will require some a full-time basis that they will require some type of public support (for housing, type of public support (for housing, transportation, education and healthcare).transportation, education and healthcare).

• The part of the population who needs this The part of the population who needs this type of support is call the dependency load. type of support is call the dependency load. The Dependency Load is Older Adults (65+) The Dependency Load is Older Adults (65+) and Children (Under 15)and Children (Under 15)

• Our dependency load is around 31%Our dependency load is around 31%

Population PyramidsPopulation Pyramids• Population pyramids are horizontal bar graphs that Population pyramids are horizontal bar graphs that

represent the portion of the population that is represent the portion of the population that is currently a certain age. They are split every five (5) currently a certain age. They are split every five (5) years or so and by male/female characteristics.years or so and by male/female characteristics.

• They show the percentage in the horizontal axis They show the percentage in the horizontal axis and the amount per age on the vertical axis.and the amount per age on the vertical axis.

• Examples of Canada’s population in 1956 and 2004 Examples of Canada’s population in 1956 and 2004 are shown on Pg. 190 (Fig. 16-4) in your text.are shown on Pg. 190 (Fig. 16-4) in your text.

Population PyramidsPopulation Pyramids

Source: United States Census Bureau, International DatabaseSource: United States Census Bureau, International Database

Changes in Population StructureChanges in Population Structure

• Pyramids can explain a number of different Pyramids can explain a number of different characteristics of a population over timecharacteristics of a population over time

– Ex. Post WWII, large number of babies Ex. Post WWII, large number of babies born...today that group is around 49-60 years-oldborn...today that group is around 49-60 years-old

– Ex. Shift from young European immigrants Post Ex. Shift from young European immigrants Post WWII to older Asian and Middle Eastern WWII to older Asian and Middle Eastern ImmigrantsImmigrants

Changes in Population StructureChanges in Population Structure

• The amount of people at certain age brackets The amount of people at certain age brackets determines our needs in societydetermines our needs in society

– Ex. In the 1960s we needed elementary schools Ex. In the 1960s we needed elementary schools for the baby boomersfor the baby boomers

– Ex. In the 2010s we’ll need healthcare facilities to Ex. In the 2010s we’ll need healthcare facilities to take care of those now full grown boomerstake care of those now full grown boomers

Stages of Population ChangeStages of Population Change

• Stage 1Stage 1• Many decades ago a high birth rate and high Many decades ago a high birth rate and high

death rate keeps the population relatively death rate keeps the population relatively stablestable

• Stage 2Stage 2• At some point the death rate drops (better At some point the death rate drops (better

medicine and health care)...that combined medicine and health care)...that combined with a higher birth rate causes growth with a higher birth rate causes growth


• Stage 3Stage 3• Birth rates drop as the COL rises and Birth rates drop as the COL rises and

education becomes more important...people education becomes more important...people begin waiting longer to have kids and they begin waiting longer to have kids and they have less kids than 75 to 100 years ago.have less kids than 75 to 100 years ago.

• Since the end of WWII, the increased number Since the end of WWII, the increased number of women in the workforce has also caused a of women in the workforce has also caused a dip in the birth rate dip in the birth rate


• Stage 4Stage 4• The birth rate drops off as well as gets closer The birth rate drops off as well as gets closer

to the death rate again (the stages go full to the death rate again (the stages go full circle)...in Canada we have not yet reached circle)...in Canada we have not yet reached that point but for many European countries that point but for many European countries this has already happenedthis has already happened

• The impact is a low NIR and a reliance on The impact is a low NIR and a reliance on immigration to get population growth...immigration to get population growth...

What are some reasons for this massive population boom?What are some reasons for this massive population boom?

the study of population introduction to population change

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