Atlanta Regional Commission

For more information, contact:

mcarnathan@atlantaregional.com

Population Estimates for the Atlanta Region:Another Steady Year of Growth

The Highlights

• The 10-county Atlanta region is now home to 4,401,800 persons in 2016, up from 4,332,600 in 2015. From April 1, 2015 to April 1, 2016 the region added 69,200 new residents. This represents the largest single-year increase since 2007-2008. The Atlanta region’s 2016 population is larger than that of 24 states.

• From 2015 to 2016, Gwinnett added 17,300 new residents, the largest single-year growth in the region. Next were Fulton with 15,300 new residents, Cobb with 9,900, and Cherokee with 6,800 new residents.

• The City of Atlanta, too, is experiencing impressive growth. Fueled by a boom in multi-family development, the city added 7,900 new residents between 2015 and 2016, the largest single-year estimated population since the Great Recession.

• In 2015, there were over 22,200 new residential building permits in the 10-county region, which was over 2,000 higher than the number permitted in 2014, and the highest annual performance of the decade. Still, current building permit activity for the 10-county region hasn’t reached pre-recession permit levels.

Population Estimates

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2014 2015 2016

Average Annual

Change 2010-

2016

Average Annual

Change 1990-

2010

Atlanta Region1,500,823 1,896,182 2,557,800 3,429,379 4,107,750 4,272,300 4,332,600 4,401,800

49,008 77,498

Cherokee 31,059 51,699 91,000 141,903 214,346 227,500 233,300 240,100 4,292 6,167

Clayton 98,126 150,357 184,100 236,517 259,424 264,700 266,900 270,600 1,863 3,766

Cobb 196,793 297,718 453,400 607,751 688,078 717,100 727,600 737,500 8,237 11,734

DeKalb 415,387 483,024 553,800 665,865 691,893 712,900 718,400 725,000 5,518 6,905

Douglas 28,659 54,573 71,700 92,174 132,403 136,000 137,400 139,000 1,100 3,035

Fayette 11,364 29,043 62,800 91,263 106,567 109,500 110,700 112,300 956 2,188

Fulton 605,210 589,904 670,800 816,006 920,581 958,100 970,400 985,700 10,853 12,489

Gwinnett 72,349 166,808 356,500 588,448 805,321 844,100 859,800 877,100 11,963 22,441

Henry 23,724 36,309 59,200 119,341 203,922 214,500 218,700 223,600 3,280 7,236

Rockdale 18,152 36,747 54,500 70,111 85,215 87,900 89,400 90,900 948 1,536

City of Atlanta 495,039 424,922 415,200 416,474 420,003 426,900 431,700 439,600 3,266 240

The 10-County Atlanta region has averaged 49,000 new residents each year since 2010, which is much lower than the annual growth experienced between 1990 and 2010. This is still an increase compared to the 2010-2015 period, when the region averaged around 45,000 new residents each year. Over the past year (April 1, 2015 and April 1, 2016), however, the region added 69,200 new residents, compared to 60,300 between 2014 and 2015.

Note: The City of Atlanta totals are included in both DeKalb’s and Fulton’s population estimates

Source: ARC’s 2016 Population Estimates, Census

Population Estimates: Gwinnett Leads the Region in Growth

With the economy improving and job growth accelerating, population growth has rebounded from the recessionary lags early in the decade, but still is below that of the booming years in the 1990s and 2000s. Since 2010, Gwinnett County has led the region in average annual growth, adding almost 12,000 new residents each year. This growth, as in all jurisdictions except the City of Atlanta, is well below the average annual change experienced between 1990 and 2010. As was the case last year, Gwinnett added the most residents, up 17,300, then Fulton (15,300), Cobb (9,900), and Cherokee (6,800).

Source: ARC’s 2016 Population Estimates, Census

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2014 2015 2016

Average Annual

Change 2010-

2016

Average Annual

Change 1990-

2010

Atlanta Region

1,500,823 1,896,182 2,557,800 3,429,37

9

4,107,750 4,272,300 4,332,600 4,401,800

49,008 77,498

Cherokee 31,059 51,699 91,000 141,903 214,346 227,500 233,300 240,100 4,292 6,167

Clayton 98,126 150,357 184,100 236,517 259,424 264,700 266,900 270,600 1,863 3,766

Cobb 196,793 297,718 453,400 607,751 688,078 717,100 727,600 737,500 8,237 11,734

DeKalb 415,387 483,024 553,800 665,865 691,893 712,900 718,400 725,000 5,518 6,905

Douglas 28,659 54,573 71,700 92,174 132,403 136,000 137,400 139,000 1,100 3,035

Fayette 11,364 29,043 62,800 91,263 106,567 109,500 110,700 112,300 956 2,188

Fulton 605,210 589,904 670,800 816,006 920,581 958,100 970,400 985,700 10,853 12,489

Gwinnett 72,349 166,808 356,500 588,448 805,321 844,100 859,800 877,100 11,963 22,441

Henry 23,724 36,309 59,200 119,341 203,922 214,500 218,700 223,600 3,280 7,236

Rockdale 18,152 36,747 54,500 70,111 85,215 87,900 89,400 90,900 948 1,536

City of Atlanta 495,039 424,922 415,200 416,474 420,003 426,900 431,700 439,600 3,266 240

Source: Census Bureau; ARC Research & Analytics

Population Growth Through the Decades

The 1990s were booming, as the 10-county Atlanta region added more than 900,000 new residents during the decade, by far the largest net gain in population when compared to other decades spanning back to the 1930s. On a percentage basis, however, the 1950s had the largest gains, with the region growing by some 38 percent between 1950 and 1960.

Source: ARC’s 2016 Population Estimates, Census

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

1900-1910 1910-1920 1920-1930 1930-1940 1940-1950 1950-1960 1960-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010 2010-2016

Average Annual RAW Change by Decade - ARC 10 County Area

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

3.50%

4.00%

1900-1910 1910-1920 1920-1930 1930-1940 1940-1950 1950-1960 1960-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010 2010-2016

Average Annual PERCENT Change by Decade - ARC 10 County Area

Building Permit Levels Starting to Slowly Recover

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

Residential Building Permits: 1980-2015

While ARC looks at several sources of data in developing our annual population estimates, examining building permit activity is a primary input. The higher building permit activity of the last few years helps explain why population growth has picked up compared to earlier in the current decade. In 2015, there were over 22,000 new building permits in the 10-county region, which was over 2,000 higher than the number permitted in 2014. As building permit activity ticks back up, so has and will population growth. But permitting activity is just now back near 1992 levels.

Source: State of the Cities Data System

Building Permits Building Back Towards Historical Average

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

Residential Building Permits: 1980-201530-Year Average

Building permit activity is recovering from the near-record lows of the late 2000s and early years of this decade. Between 1980 and 2015, the 10-county Atlanta region averaged 32,570 residential permits each year. In 2015, that number was about 22,200, almost 70% of the 35-year average, up from 50% of the average in 2012. So while last year’s population growth of 69,200 new residents was the highest annual increase since the Great Recession, that growth did not approach the annual increases in the region during the late 1990s and early 2000s.

Source: State of the Cities Data System

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

City ofAtlanta

CherokeeCounty

ClaytonCounty

CobbCounty

DeKalbCounty

DouglasCounty

FayetteCounty

FultonCounty

GwinnettCounty

HenryCounty

RockdaleCounty

Multi-Family

Single-Family

Building Permits By Jurisdiction, 2015

In addition to looking at overall residential permit activity, we also look at the type of unit permitted. Multi-family units have smaller household sizes and higher vacancy rates than single-family homes. So, in Fulton County (which includes the City of Atlanta totals), for example, the vast majority (68%) of new units permitted were multi-family. In contrast, the large majority (84%) of new units permitted in Gwinnett were single-family. Thus, even though Fulton permitted well more than twice the number of units last year than did Gwinnett, (9,450 to 3,900), Gwinnett added 2,000 more new residents than did Fulton County. Other factors included Gwinnett’s higher occupancies and increases in school enrollment.

In metro Atlanta, for example, some 45 percent of occupied multi-family units house single-person households, compared to only 20 percent of single-family unit households headed by a single-person.

Source: State of the Cities Data System; Census ACS

The map on the right shows population change per square mile between 2010-2016. Dark blue indicates the largest population increase while light blue and white represent the lowest. On the map to the left, for calendar year 2015, the dark blue shading indicates high densities of single-family permits, with the red dots representing permits for new apartment complexes. These two maps show why tracking building permits is important to understanding population changes, because, in general, the areas with the highest concentrations of building permits (left) correspond to the areas with the highest growth (right).

Population Change per Square Mile, 2010-20162015 New Apartment Complex Permits /Density of Single Family Permits

Where Growth is Going

Source: HB Weekly (permits) and ESRI (small-area population estimates).

Population Change per

Sq. Mile2010-2016

Where Growth Is Going… Since 1980!

Total Population Growth1980-2016

This map shows the “long view” – how the region’s neighborhoods have changed since 1980. As you can see, since 1980, the areas that have added the most population are mostly located in the suburbs, although you do see some darker blues in the northern part of the City of Atlanta. The area that has seen the most growth since 1980 (+22,244 new residents) is in northern Gwinnett, on the county border, right between the I-85 and I-985 split.

Source: ESRI and Geolytics

Where Growth Is Going… Since 1980!

Total Population GrowthPer Square Mile

1980-2016

Source: ESRI and Geolytics

This map looks at population growth per square mile, so this is a measure of population densification. While it still shows a basic suburban growth pattern, many more closer-in areas show strong densification, including the Midtown, Downtown and Lindbergh areas. In fact, an area in Midtown around 10th and Peachtree next to Piedmont Park, densified the most, adding 14,435 people per square mile since 1980.