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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Co-benefits of Low Carbon Transition in India: Aligning Development Perspective and Sector Approach
P.R. ShuklaIndian Institute of ManagementAhmedabad, India
Presented in International Expert Meeting on ‘2nd International Workshop on Sectoral GHG Emission Reduction Potential’, Organized by Ministry of the Environment, Japan, Paris, France, October 22, 2008
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Energy and Carbon: Base Case
From 2005-2050:Annual Economic Growth: 7.2%Annual Population Growth: 0.9%
Increase in 2050 over 2005Economy 23 timesPopulation 1.56 times
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Mto
e
Other RenewablesNuclearHydroGasOilCoalCommercial BiomassNon Com Biomass
Energy
Assumptions
Annual Improvement From 2005-2050:Energy Intensity: 3.14 (%)Carbon Intensity: 3.07 (%)Decarbonization of Energy: -0.07 (%)
Direct Investment in Energy Projects:2010-30: US$ 1.2 Trillion2030-50: US$ 2.3 Trillion
Results: Energy and Carbon Intensity
Carbon Emissions
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Milli
on T
on C
O2
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Alternate Development VisionsAssumptions
1. Global Stabilization Target Assumption:• 550 ppmv CO2e Concentration (OR)• 3.4 W/m2 (OR)• @ 3o centigrade temperature increase
2. Two Development Pathways for India: (with same total CO2 emissions from 2005 to 2050)
1. Vision 1: Conventional Development path2. Vision 2: ‘Sustainability’ scenario
What path shall best deliver national development goals while fulfilling Climate Commitments?
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mill
ion
Ton
CO
2
OthersDevice Efficiency
Renewable Energy
Electricity (Fuel Switch)
CCS
Carbon Tax 7 22 40 67 100$/tCO2
1. Top-down/Supply-side actions
2. High Carbon Price as main instrument
3. Climate Focused Technology Push
Vision I: Managing Climate via Conventional Path
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
1. Low Carbon Price2. Bottom-up/Demand-side Actions3. Behavioural Change4. Diverse Technology Portfolio
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
OthersCCSTransport ModeUrban PlanningConsumptionRecyclingMaterial SubstitutionsAppliance EfficiencyRenewable Energy Building
Electricity (Fuel Switch)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Mill
ion
Ton
CO
2
Renewable Energy Renewable
Vision II: Managing Climate via Sustainable Path
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Energy Technology Mix in 2050
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Mto
e
Base Case
Conventional Dev. + Tax
Sustainability
Share of Renewable
Base 24 %C+T 34 %Sust. 47 %
Total Energy Demand
Base 3004 MtoeC+T 2945 MtoeSust. 2004 Mtoe
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Co-benefits of Climate Actions
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mill
ion
tSO
2
Base Case
Sustainable Development + Low Carbon Tax
Conventional Path + High Carbon Price
Co-benefits: SO2 Emissions
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
CO2 Emissions & Price Trajectories
Base Case
Conventional Society
Sustainable Society
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2010 2020 2030 2040
Pric
e C
O2
(US
$/tC
O2)
2050
CO2 Price
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Broadening Sector Perspective for Low Carbon Development
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Urban - sector?
• Land-use Planning
• Building Choices
• Infrastructures
• Service Networks
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Automobile – sector?Rush Hour Traffic in India
Rising Incomes and Small Cars
Tata Nano: $2500 QQ: $4000
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Transport mode - sector?Bus Rapid Transport System
Public Transport: Metro Rail
Technologies for Train Corridors
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Co-benefits of Regional Infrastructure
CoCo--benefits of Southbenefits of South--Asia Asia Integrated EnergyIntegrated Energy--Water MarketWater Market
Benefit (Saving) Cumulative from 2010 to 2030
$ Billion % GDP
Energy 60 Exa Joule 321 0.87
CO2 Equiv. 5.1 Billion Ton 28 0.08
SO2 50 Million Ton 10 0.03
Total 359 0.98
Spill-over Benefits / Co-Benefits
• More Water for Food Production (MDG1)
• 16 GW additional Hydropower (MDG1&7)
• Flood control (MDG1&7)
• Lower energy prices would enhance competitiveness of regional industries (MDG1)
MDG 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger, MDG 7: Environmental Sustainability
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India
China
Iran
Pakistan
Afghanistan
OmanMyanmar (B urma)
Thailand
Nepal
Turkmenistan
Saudi Arabia
Tajikistan
Yemen
Bang ladesh
Sri Lanka
Bhutan
Uzbekistan
Somalia
United Arab Emirates
Qatar
Laos
Malaysia
Bahrain
IndonesiaMa ld ives
Pune
GayaKota
Guna
Gadag
K ochi
Patna
Del hi
Anand
D adraSuratOlpad
K alol
Panvel
H assan
D ispur
A mbala
N angal
K anpur
Jhansi
Ujj ai nJhabua
Valsad
N adiadRaj kot
Sol apurGuhagarChiptun
Chennai
N el lore
Kolkata
Sangrur
Sonipat
Aurai yaGwalior
Chotil a B haruch
PalmanerChittoor
Kokinada
LudhianaBathinda
Bareilly
Vijaypur
Mahesana
Tutikorin
MangaloreBangalore
Vijaywada
Faridabad
Ratnagi ri
Kayankulam
Coim batore
Jagdishpuri
Shahjahanpur
Vi shakhapattnam
Tiruchchi rappal li
Herat
MultanQuet ta
Khuzdar
Karachi
Delaram
Kandhar
South-ParsIranshaharBandar-e-Abbas
Legend Important PlacesExisting Gas Pipelines
Proposed Gas PipelinesExisting LNG terminalsProposed LNG terminalsExisting Gas Basin
Gas Pipelines under construction
Proposed Gas Basin¨
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
Dematerialization - sector?
0
200
400
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1000
Dem
and
(Mill
ion
Ton)
Conventional Development
Sustainable Society
0
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800
1000
Dem
and
(Mill
ion
Ton)
Conventional Development
Sustainable Society
Cement
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500
100
200
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700
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Dem
and
(Mill
ion
Ton)
Steel
Conventional Development
Sustainable SocietyD
eman
d (M
illio
n To
n)
0
100
200
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600
700
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Steel
Conventional Development
Sustainable Society100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Conventional DevelopmentConventional Development
Sustainable Society
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Conventional Development
Sustainable Society
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5
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35
40
Conventional Development
Sustainable Society
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Dem
and
(Mill
ion
Ton)
Conventional Development
Sustainable Society
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Paper
Dem
and
(Tril
lion
Lum
en h
rs)
0
1000
2000
3000
Conventional Development
Sustainable Society
Lighting
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India
• Developing Countries have opportunities to make choices which can vitally alter future emissions path.
• Sector approach for developing countries should be different. The key sectors could be infrastructure, 3R, urban design etc.
• Sector mitigation strategies should focus on co-benefits
• Sector approach should aim for cooperation rather than competition.
• Important to communicate why sector approach? what sectors?how to implement it in a cooperative framework?
Conclusions
Thank you