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Page 1: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

Practical Fixed Income

Page 2: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

Practical Nominal Fixed Income

Page 3: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

I. Conventions and Curves theories

II. Bonds, Discounting Methods and Forward

III. Durations and Convexity Risk

Page 4: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

I. Conventions and Curves theories

Page 5: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

Base Exact/360 ( “Money Market Basis” )

Numerator : Period defined with exact number of days ( varies

between 28 to 31)

numerator = exact numbers of days

Denominator :360

Base 30/360 ( “Bond Market Basis” )

Numerator : Period defined with as months of 30 days max (varies

between 28 to 30)

formula : (J2-J1) + (30 x (M2-M1) ) + (360 x ( A2-A1))

Denominator :360

Conventions

Page 6: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

Base Exact/365 ( ZC base)

Numerator : Period defined as exact number of days ( varies between

28 to 31)

formula : numerator = exact numbers of days

Denominator :365

Base Exact/Exact

Numerator : Period defined as exact number of days ( varies between

28 to 31)

formula : numerator = exact numbers of days

Denominator :365 or 366 if bissextile

Conventions

Page 7: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

Impact of the different basis

Example : From 09 Jan 2014 to 30 Jun 2014

a) Exact/360 : 0.4777

b) 30/360 : 0.475

c) Exact/365 : 0.47123

d) Exact/Exact : 0.47123

Conventions

Page 8: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

Payment Convention

If the payment date comes on non-working day, few rules

apply

Convention “Previous Business Day” :

o Payment on the previous working day

Convention “Following Business Day” :

o Payment on the following working day

Convention “Modified Business Day” :

o Payment on the following working day except if it changes the

payment months

Conventions

Page 9: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

Standard European Curves EONIA (Euro Overnight Indexed Rate Average)

– Daily average rates weighted by interbank deposits in the euro

zone

– Capitalized EONIA is used in the OIS Swaps for example

– Published by the European Bank Federation

EURIBOR (Euro Interbank Offered Rate)

– Average rate at which a sample of European banks are lending

money

– Fixing every working days at 11am (French time), maturity from 1

to 12 months

– Published by the European Bank Federation

International Standard Curves

– Each important financial place has an interbank average rate that

are used as a reference for Swaps in a given currency ( ex: SONIA,

LIBOR…)

Page 10: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

Definition of the yield curve

– The yield curve is the “term structure” of interest rates

Explanations :

– For a given maturity and a given credit risk, there is a given

interest rate.

– There are many yield curves according to a country, a currency

and of the credit risk

Yield curve

Page 11: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

Bonds

Page 12: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

Market curves

Directly defined by the market quotes of financial instruments

(swaps, bonds).

Ex: Government Bonds

Implied curves

Indirectly defined by the market quotes of financial instruments

(swaps, bonds).

Ex: Forward, zero-coupon bond

Drafting the yield curve

Page 13: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

Standard forms of the yield curvesrate

maturity maturity

maturitymaturity

raterate

rate

Page 14: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

Yield curve theory

The theory of anticipation (increasing curve)

The long term rates are the reflection of the anticipation of the

short term rates in the future => anticipated short term rates are

higher than the actual short term rates.

The theory of the preference for liquidity (increasing

curve)

The financial instruments with longer maturity are less liquid and

more risky => the long term rates must be higher

Page 15: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

Yield curve theory

The theory of the segmentation (random curve)

Each segment of the yield curve (0-5 years, 5-10 years,> 10

years..) represents segments of the market with their own offer

and demand => independency of the segments

The theory of the preferred segment (random curve)

The actors on the market have a preference for certain segments

on the yield curve. Here the actors can intervene on many

segment of the curve ( difference between the theory of

segmentation)

Page 16: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

Yield curve distortions

Parallel distortions

The entire curve is distorted in a uniform way

Ex:

The yield curve increase by 1% on all the maturity

rate

maturity

C0

C1

+1%

Page 17: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

Yield curve distortions

Non Parallel distortions

The entire curve is distorted not in a uniform way

1) Steepening

Various possibilities :

rate

maturity

C1

C0

C1’

Higher long term rates

Lower short term rates

Page 18: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

Yield curve distortions

2) Flattening

Various possibilities :

rate

maturity

C1

C0

C1’

Higher short term rates

Lower long term rates

Page 19: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

Yield curve distortions

3) Modification of the curve

rate

maturity

C0

C1

Higher MT rates Lower ST and LT rates

Page 20: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

Standard European Curves

3) Modification of the curve

rate

maturity

C0

C1

Higher MT rates Lower ST and LT rates

Page 21: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

II. Bonds, Discounting Methods and

Forward

Page 22: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

Bloomberg Print Screen:

Bonds

Page 23: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

Actuarial Yield :

Bonds

– P is the bond price– C is the periodic coupon payment– N is the number of years to maturity– M is the (face value) payment at maturity (100)– y is the yield to maturity or actuarial yield

NN32 1

M

1

C...

1

C

1

C

1

CP

yyyyy

Page 24: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

Actuarial Yield :

Bonds

– Bond price is 99.5– Maturity is 5y– Coupon is 2.9%

What ‘s the value of the yield to maturity ???

55432 1

100

1

2.9

1

2.9

1

2.9

1

2.9

1

2.999.5

yyyyyy

Page 25: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

Spot rates :

Bonds

– P is the bond price– C is the periodic coupon payment– N is the number of years to maturity– M is the (face value) payment at maturity (100)– spot rate rn is the discount rate for a cash flow in year n that

can be locked in today

P C

1 r1

C

1 r2 2 C

1 r3 3 ... C

1 rN N M

1 rN N

Page 26: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

Bonds

Page 27: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

Advantages of the yield to maturity:

• Allows investors to compare different bonds with each

other

• Good sensitivity of the bond proxy

Disadvantages of the yield to maturity measure:

• Considers the curve flat

• Movement only in parallel shift

Bonds

Page 28: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

Maturity from 1day to 12 months:

• We use the money market rates ( Euribor) in order

to get the zc rates.

• No calculation needed as they are all ready zc

rates.

• It is expressed in basis ( exact/360) => we convert

it into exact/365 ( base for zc )

• For one day we use the EONIA rate ( money rate)

that we convert into zc rate base :

Discounting ZC method

1))360

(1(365

nMzc

nTT

Page 29: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

Maturity over 1y :

• We use the “bootstrapping” with the swap rate that is

quoted in the market to get the imply zc rate

Discounting ZC method

100

100

100

)1(

1)1(

1)1(

1

100

100

100

33

22

11

333

22

1

zc

zc

zc

TwTwTw

TwTw

Tw

CBA

CAB 1

Page 30: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

Discounting ZC method

Maturity ZC Rates 0.00 0.100%0.02 0.132%0.08 0.187%0.25 0.260%0.50 0.355%0.75 0.298%1.00 0.531%

2 0.531%3 0.727%4 0.978%5 1.230%6 1.464%7 1.676%8 1.868%9 2.040%

10 2.194%11 2.328%12 2.442%13 2.540%14 2.620%15 2.684%16 2.735%17 2.773%18 2.799%19 2.817%20 2.830%21 2.842%22 2.855%23 2.851%24 2.852%25 2.845%26 2.841%27 2.837%28 2.830%29 2.823%30 2.816%

tickerMarket Rates

EONIA Curncy 0.10%EE0001W Index 0.13%EE0001M Index 0.18%EE0003M Index 0.26%EE0006M Index 0.35%EE0009M Index 0.29%EE0012M Index 0.52%EUSA2 Curncy 0.53%EUSA3 Curncy 0.73%EUSA4 Curncy 0.97%EUSA5 Curncy 1.22%EUSA6 Curncy 1.44%EUSA7 Curncy 1.65%EUSA8 Curncy 1.83%EUSA9 Curncy 1.99%EUSA10 Curncy 2.13%EUSA11 Curncy 2.25%EUSA12 Curncy 2.35%EUSA13 Curncy 2.44%EUSA14 Curncy 2.51%EUSA15 Curncy 2.56%EUSA16 Curncy 2.61%EUSA17 Curncy 2.64%EUSA18 Curncy 2.67%EUSA19 Curncy 2.69%EUSA20 Curncy 2.70%EUSA21 Curncy 2.71%EUSA22 Curncy 2.73%EUSA23 Curncy 2.73%EUSA24 Curncy 2.73%EUSA25 Curncy 2.73%EUSA26 Curncy 2.73%EUSA27 Curncy 2.73%EUSA28 Curncy 2.73%EUSA29 Curncy 2.73%EUSA30 Curncy 2.72%

Page 31: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

Forwards and Futures Definition

– A forward is a OTC contract that allows to fix spot the rates of a

loan in a given period and a defined amount.

– Forward aims at a future loan/ placement

– The operation will actually take place with a redemption of the

notional at the determined rate and for a given maturity (not the

case for a future nor a FRA)

– The forward rate curve is calculated thanks to the spot rate curve :

in is based on the market efficiency principal.

Conclusion : The present value of a spot placement at the 1 year

market rate followed by a placement for a year in a year

Must be equal to

The present value of a spot placement at the 2 year market rate

Page 32: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

Forward:

• As there is no arbitrage, we have the following

formula :

• : investment spot rate for N years

• : Forward rate for 1year in 1year

Forwards and Futures

20,2

11,1

10,1 )T(1)F(1)T(1

N0,T

1,1F

Page 33: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

FRA: Forward Rate Agreement

• Cash settled contract on a short-term loan

• OTC

• The underlying loan is usually for 3 or 6 months, and quotes

generally for 1×4, 1×7, 3×6, 3×9, 6×9 and 6×12

• Buyer of means “payer of fixed rate in x

Months for y Months

• The variable rate is determined at maturity and the

counterparties exchange just the differential with the

fixed rate

Forwards and Futures

yx,FRA

Page 34: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

FRA: Forward Rate Agreement

Value of the FRA formula :

Forwards and Futures

)1),((

),((

1 ),,(F

))

360T1(

360)T(T

(n Value

ref

Fixref

TtDF

TtDFTTtRA

days

days

n : notional amount of the loan

days : number of days the loan

FRA

EURIBOR

:T

:T

ref

Fix

Page 35: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

Futures : Short term ( cash settlement)

• Those futures represent fictive bonds defined with a

nominal, a maturity and a coupon

• It is quoted in price by the yield rate

Forwards and Futures

Yield100Price Future

Page 36: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

Futures : Euribor3m

• Maturity 90 days

• Notional 1m

• K : numbers of contracts

• : Price of the Future at time t

Forwards and Futures

)(1000000&

))360

90((1(Price Future Actual

0

3

FFKLP

TN

f

ME

tF

Page 37: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

Futures : Bund, Bobble, Schatz…

• Those futures represent fictive bonds defined with a

nominal, a maturity and a coupon

• At expiry date, several bonds that exist in the fixed

income market will be deliver at a price that will reply

the future properties

Forwards and Futures

Page 38: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

Futures : Bund Future :

• Notional short-, medium- or long-term debt instruments issued by the Federal Republic of Germany, the Republic of Italy, the Republic of France or the Swiss Confederation with remaining terms and a coupon

Forwards and Futures

FactorConversion

CCfundingCTD_BondCTD_Bond

Future

PricePrice

Page 39: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

Futures : Bund Future :

• The conversion Factor is specific to each cheapest and

is calculate at the issue of the new future ( same YTM

between the future and the cheapest)

• quick approximation :

Forwards and Futures

Future

CTD_Bond

Price

)(PV discountedYTMFactorConversion Future

Page 40: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

Futures : Bund Future :

• Issue 07/06/2014 : Bund Future =143

• CTD Price : YTM = 1.545

Forwards and Futures

Future

CTD_Bond

Price

)(PV discountedYTMFactorConversion Future

Page 41: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

Futures : Bund Future :

• : Price at t0

• : Price at tf ( closing of the trade)

• K : Numbers of Contracts

Forwards and Futures

)(100000& 0FFkLP f

0F

fF

Page 42: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

Futures : Bund Future :

Forwards and Futures

Page 43: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

III. Durations and Convexity Risk

Page 44: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

Durations and Convexity Risk

Taylor-Young Formula

• Formula :

)(xf !

h...)(xf

!2

h)(xfh )f(x h) f(x 0

nn

0''

2

0'

00 n

Page 45: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

Durations and Convexity Risk

Duration : “Macauly Duration”

• It measures of average maturity of the bond’s

expected cash flows

• Formula :

T

t

ttD1 PV(Bond)

)C(PV

NN

NN

yyy

yN

yyD

)1(

C...

)1(C

)1(C

)1(C

...)1(

C2

)1(C

1

22

11

22

11

Page 46: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

Durations and Convexity Risk

Duration : “Macauly Duration”

• Duration is shorter than maturity for all bonds except zero coupon bonds

• Duration of a zero-coupon bond is equal to its maturity

Page 47: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

Durations and Convexity Risk

Modified duration :

• Formula :

• Direct measure of price sensitivity to interest rate changes

y

DurationDm

1

Page 48: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

Durations and Convexity Risk

Modified duration :

• Formula :

Dm measures the sensitivity of the % change in bond price to changes in yield

m

m

N

tt

tN

tt

t

Dy

P

P

PDy

Ct

yy

P

y

CP

1

)1(1

1

)1( 11

Page 49: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

Durations and Convexity Risk

Convexity Risk:

• Formula :

y

P

P

tty

CF

yy

P N

tt

t

2

2

1

222

2

1Convexity

)()1()1(

1

Page 50: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

Durations and Convexity Risk

Convexity Risk:

Page 51: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

Durations and Convexity Risk

Convexity Risk:

• Measures how much a bond’s price-yield curve deviates from a straight line

• Second derivative of price with respect to yield divided by bond price

• improve the duration approximation for bond price changes

Page 52: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

Durations and Convexity Risk

Example : DBR 4.75% 04/07/28

Page 53: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

Futures : Bund Future :

Forwards and Futures

Page 54: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

Durations and Convexity Risk

Example : ( Price : 131.64; yield : 2.171)

DBR 4.75% 04/07/28 • Duration : 11.053

• Modify Duration : 10.817

• Convexity : 1.487

Bund ( Price : 142.95)

• Duration : 8.382

• Modify Duration : 8.254

• Convexity : 0.799

Page 55: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

Durations and Convexity Risk

Future Hedge Ratio : Bund

• In order to cover our rate risk, we use the Modify Duration of our bond vs the Modify Duration of the CTD bond

• Ratio :

Where MD is the modify duration

FactorConversionMD

MD

CTDice

eBondMarketValuatio

CTD

BOND

1000)(Pr

R

Page 56: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

Durations and Convexity Risk

Example :

• Hedge Ratio :

For 25m DBR 4.75% 04/07/28 , we have 302 bund contracts

695531.0254.8

817.10

100054.99

64.131R

atio

Page 57: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

Fixed Income Product : Swap

Swap :

• A swap is an over-the-counter (“OTC”) derivative transaction where the counterparties agree to exchange cash flows linked to specific market rates for a period of time.

• One set of cash flows will typically be known – usually expressed as a fixed rate of interest. The other set of cash flows will be unknown – example : Euribor6m

• the present value of both sets of cash flows is the same at inception.

Periodic exchange of cash flows for life of transaction

Fixed payments

LIBOR payments - unknown

Page 58: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

Fixed Income Product : Asset Swap Par/Par

Asset Swap Par / Par :

• An asset swap is a derivative transaction that results in a change in the form of future cash flows generated by an asset

• In the bond markets, asset swaps typically take fixed cashflows on a bond and exchange them for Euribor + spread (i.e. floatingrate payments)

• At inception the investor and the counterparty exchange the following flows :

Page 59: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

Fixed Income Product : Asset Swap Par/Par

Asset Swap Par / Par :

Page 60: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

Fixed Income Product : Z-Spread

Z- Spread:

• The Z-spread is a purely theoretical concept designed toallow a bond yield to be compared to a swap rate as fairly aspossible

• The Z-spread is defined as the size of the shift in the zerocoupon swap curve such that the present value of a bond’scash flows is equal to the bond’s dirty price

Pure RV indicator

Page 61: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

Practical Inflation Fixed Income

Page 62: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

I. Inflation Market

II. Inflation Products and Inflation Curve

III. RV Strategy

Page 63: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

I. Inflation Market

Page 64: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

Inflation Market

Inflation

Markets

Clients

Regions Instruments

Page 65: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

Inflation Market

HEDGING

* Pension Funds

* Insurance Companies

* Retail

* ALM / Treasury

* Corporates

* Utilities

* Infrastructure Projects

* Real Estate Companies

Clients

BENCHMARKING

* Inflation Funds

* Mutual Funds

RELATIVE VALUE

* Hedge Funds *

* ALM / Treasury *

* Pension Funds

* Insurance Companies

* Retail

* Inflation Funds *

* Asset Swap Investors

ISSUERS

* States

* Agencies

* Corporates

*Receiver *Payer

Page 66: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

Inflation Market

Inflation Payers :

Payers of inflation are entities that receive inflation cashflows in their

natural line of business as their income is linked to inflation. Therefore

they’ll sell it in the inflation market. ( sovereigns will issue inflation

bonds for example)

Inflation Receivers :

Inflation receivers are entities that pays inflation cashflows in their

natural line of business as their liabilities are linked to inflation.

Therefore they’ll buy it in the inflation market. ( PF will be short on their

long term inflation liabilities if they don’t buy inflation securities to

counterbalance their shortfall risk)

Shortfall risk: risk that their assets drop below their liabilities

Page 67: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

Inflation Market

EUROPE

The most sophisticated derivatives market

Big cash market, international interest

More buyers than sellers

Domestic indices

Sale/leaseback Retail demand: more to

structured products

A lot of ASW investors

USA

Biggest cash market

ASW investors

Limited options appetite

Lack of contractual buyer or seller of

inflation

UK

The first market to issue a linker

The longest linkers

Balanced buyers and sellers

Huge corporate issuance

Plenty of contractual buyer and seller of

inflation

LPI vs RPI

Retail demand: linker format

ASW investors

JAPAN &

AUSTRALIA & EMJapan- mainly on

bonds

Deflation is an issue

Australia- similar to the UK

EM- LatAm is growing fast

On shore/off shore

Regions

Page 68: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

Fig. 1:Weights in the US CPI

Source: Deutsche Bank

Fig. 2:Weights in the UK RPI

Source: Deutsche BankFood and cateringAlcohol and tobaccoHousing andhousehold expenditure Personal expenditure Travel and leisure

Food and beveragesHousing Apparel Transportation Medical Care Recreation Education and Communication Other

46 165

2577 88

%

821742

408

Fig. 3:Weights in the EUR

Source: Deutsche Bank Food & beverages

Alcohol & tobaccoClothing & footwearHousing & household services Furniture & household goods HealthTransport Communication Recreation & culture Education Restaurants & hotelsOther goods & services

99 1

4

7 10%

316

167 4

Inflation Market

Page 69: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

May 201

3

CPI

Published every month

Delay between the months and the publication of the figure cannot be used directly for indexation

An indexation lag is then needed (for example 3 months for OATeis)

DRI

In order to calculate accrued interest on inflation, one has developed a daily reference index (DRI)

Daily figure calculated as a linear interpolation between the published CPI with a 2 and 3-month lag

DRI (01 May 2013) = CPI (Feb 2013) = 115.55 DRI (01 June 2013) = CPI (March 2013) = 116.94

DRI (10 May 2013) = linear interpolation between the 2 figures

Inflation Market

Page 70: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

May 201

3

CPI and DRI : calculation

CPI Feb

115.55 CPI Mar

116.94

01-Feb 01-Mar 01- Apr 01-May 01- Jun

5 10 15 20 25

115.55

116.94

115.78

116.01

116.48 116.25

116.71

Publication

20 Mar

Publication

20 Apr

Inflation Products

Page 71: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

Inflation Market

Instruments

REAL YIELD

Inflation-linked bonds

Nominal bonds vs inflation swaps

BREAKEVENInflation swaps

Inflation-linked bonds vs nominal

swaps

VOLATILITY

Caps & Floors

Swaptions

ASW options

Bond options

Real rate vol

ASW

Bond asset swaps

Cash breakeven vs swaps breakeven

Page 72: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

Nominal yield Yield of a conventional government bond (Treasury, Gilt, OAT...)Real yield Yield of an inflation-linked government bond (TIPS, Indexed Gilt, OATi, OATei...)Breakeven inflation (BEI) Inflation implied by the level of real and nominal yields

The Fisher Equation: (1+ Nominal Yield) = (1+ Real Yield)* (1+ Breakeven Inflation)

Real Yield ~ Nominal Yield – Breakeven Inflation

72

-1.00%

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Breakeven inflation

Real yield

Nominal yield

Inflation Market

Page 73: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

73

Yield oat oct23 = be oati23 + Real Yield oati23

Inflation Market

Page 74: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

Inflation Expectation + (Liquidity Premium + Risk Premium)

Break-Even Inflation

Inflation Market

• Break-Even mainly indicates how much inflation the

market expects.

• Liquidity Premium : as inflation bonds are less liquid

than nominal bonds the market price a liquidity

Premium

• Risk Premium : If inflation uncertainty is high than

premium investor demand for holding such bond is

high as they are risk averse

Page 75: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

Real Yield :

– P is the bond price– C is the periodic coupon payment– N is the number of years to maturity– M is the (face value) payment at maturity (100)– y is the yield to maturity or actuarial yield

NN32 1

M

1

C...

1

C

1

C

1

CP

rrrrr yyyyy

Inflation bond – Structure

Inflation Market

Page 76: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

Inflation Market Inflation bond – Structure

The Fisher Equation: (1+ Nominal Yield) = (1+ Real Yield)* (1+ Breakeven Inflation)

Real Yield ~ Nominal Yield – Breakeven Inflation

base

cpi

ybase

cpi

ybase

cpi

ybase

cpi

yN

n

N

nnn

NN

22

1

1

M

1

C...

1

C

1

CP

– C is the periodic coupon payment– N is the number of years to maturity– M is the (face value) payment at maturity (100)– is nominal yield – Base is the cpi at the issue time– : cpi at time t

ny

tcpi

Page 77: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

Inflation Market Inflation bond

Page 78: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

Inflation Market Inflation bond

Page 79: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

II. Inflation Products

Page 80: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

80

0Index

TIndex Cumulative Inflation =

Cumulative Inflation-1

(1+X%) T -1

BUYER

Expected cashflows

SELLER

Inflation Products and Inflation Curve

Zero-coupon (ZC) inflation swap – indicative prices

The Buyer

– Receive Compounded Inflation at Maturity: CPIt/CPI0 -1

– Pay a known Fixed cash-flow at Maturity(1 + X%)^t -1

Page 81: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

81

Inflation Products and Inflation Curve

Zero-coupon (ZC) inflation swap – indicative prices

Page 82: Pratical Fixed Income_EISTI 2015

Region Index Lag (if CPI) SettlementEurope CPI 3 months T+2France DRI T+2

UK DRI T+2US DRI T+2

82

Inflation Products and Inflation Curve

Zero-coupon (ZC) inflation swap –Market Convention

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Inflation Products and Inflation CurveBuilding an inflation curve –Yearly tenor

For every year t:

• is calculated by the following formula :

• Base : CPI of reference for the swap curve ( 3m lag no

interpolate for EUR)

• : zero coupon inflation swap at maturity t

tt

t zcBPI )1()ase()(C t

tCPI

tzc

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Inflation Products and Inflation Curve

Building an inflation curve –Yearly tenor

For every year t:

tt

t zcBPI )1()ase()(C t

• ZC : the inflation ZC swap curve is quoted in the inflation market

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Inflation Products and Inflation Curve

Building an inflation curve –Yearly tenor

For every year t:

tt

t zcBPI )1()ase()(C t

• Base ( nov2013) :116.86

• We are in Fev14 with a 3m lag, the base is in nov13

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Inflation Products and Inflation Curve

Building an inflation curve –seasonality vector

For monthly tenor: we need to incorporate seasonality

))]()([exp()(C)(C0

0t duusufPIPItT

T

Tt

• In year period of time we have

• We use the inflation swap rate f for the period [To;Tt ] :

012

1

i

is

))(exp(0

duuftT

T

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Inflation Products and Inflation CurveBuilding an inflation curve –seasonality vector

For CPI(07/16), we have the following :

)exp(*)12

8exp((11/15) PI(07/16) PI 765432112

3 sssssssszc

CC

We are in Feb 2014 therefore inflation swap curve is base on nov 13 for the

eur inflation curve

is the 3yrs inflation zc swap rate

The seasonality from dec to july we add the item of our seasonality vector

where the base is equale to the cpi on

nov13 and is the 2yrs inflation zc swap rate

3zc

22 )1( base (11/15) PI ZCC 2zc

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Inflation Products and Inflation CurveBuilding an inflation curve –seasonality vector

We define a seasonality vector using Eurostat model : http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/browseTable.do?

ICP_ITEM=X02200&DATASET=0&node=2120778&REF_AREA=308&SERIES_KEY=122.ICP.M.U2.N.X022

00.4.INX&SERIES_KEY=122.ICP.M.U2.S.X02200.3.INX

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Inflation Products and Inflation Curve

Building an inflation curve –seasonality vector

We can realize that the seasonality vector is getting

more and more strong over the years.

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Expected cashflows

Inflation Products and Inflation Curve

Additive inflation swap & Real rate swap– indicative prices

X% + YoY InflationFloored @ 0.00%

Libor +/- margin

Client4.30%4.18%4.07%3.88%

2.77%

-4.90%-4.57%

-4.17%

-3.35%

-2.25%

Inflation Leg

Libor LegBank

YoY Inflation =

1

1tIndex

tIndex

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– More balanced cashflow profile – It is a play on real rates

• Party A pays: YoY Inflation + X% vs Party B pays: Libor

X% is the real rate at the time of the trade• Party A is “receiver” in this real rate swap

– If you believe real rates are going to increase, you want to be Party A– If you believe real rates are going to decrease, you want to be Party B

– Widely traded by• Retail banks• Private banks• Asset managers• Corporates- as payer of

Inflation Products and Inflation CurveAdditive inflation swap & Real rate swap– indicative prices

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Cumulative Inflation t =

0Index

tIndex

(1+X%) t -1

Cumulative Inflation t -1

Client

Expected cashflows

-2.83%

-5.80%-8.55%

-11.49%-14.44%

2.97%

5.89%8.64%

11.23%13.67%Inflation Leg

Fixed Leg

Bank

Inflation Products and Inflation CurveInflation-linked annuity swap– indicative prices

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Combination of zero-coupon swaps with different maturities with additional constraint of having the same fixed rate for each swap

Hedges a periodic string of cashflows that increase with inflation each year – like rental income

Cashflows do not have to be the same

Widely traded by

Project finance linked entities

Insurance companies

Pension funds

Inflation Products and Inflation CurveInflation-linked annuity swap– indicative prices

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At maturity: Inflation Uplift, Floored at 0%

Bond Coupons, paid on inflation-adjusted notional

Libor +/- asw margin

At inception: Dirty Price Adjustment (could be positive or negative)

Issuer

Inflation-linked BOND

Client Bank

Inflation Products and Inflation CurveInflation Asset Swap – Par-Par

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Cumulative Inflation =

0Index

TIndex

At maturity:

100% * Max (Cumulative Inflation-1, 0.00%)

X% * Cumulative Inflation

Libor +/- asw margin

Client

Expected cashflows

-13.38%

-1.80%-1.75%-1.71%-1.68%

4.33%4.18%3.95%3.26%

2.23%

Inflation LegLibor Leg

Bank

Inflation Products and Inflation CurveInflation Asset Swap – Par-Par