Presented by :

Romanov Victor (professor of Russian Plekhanov University of Economics)

Agafonova Yelena (student of Russian Plekhanov University of Economics)

Sandybaeva Saltanat (student of Russian Plekhanov University of Economics)

Innovation process simulation on the base

“Predator and Prey” model

Content

1) Emotion simulation study:

▪ Literature review of an emotional state formal model

2) “Hunger” considered as a feeling:

▪ Hunger in the Feeling and Simulation model

▪ Algorithm of “Satisfying Hunger”

▪ Simulation based on “Predator and Prey” model

Emotion simulation

Nowadays researchers are more and more interested in problems of modeling emotions and feelings, which became important part of general models of social and economic processes.

In our research such emotions were considered:

Anger

Happiness

Hunger

Joy

Hope

FearSadnes

s

According to Meyer&Dastani’s paper an agent is happy only when his goals are achieved.

In other words , in the pursuit of goal all the subgoals must be fulfilled. Everything that was planned also must be done.

HAPPINESS

An agent is intended to do anything in order to achieve its goal. And he also believes, that happiness comes when all the subgoals are done.

SADNESS

Sad agent is disappointed by how his plans regress. He is seeking the way to improve his affairs and is trying to make his goals more realistic.

An agent is intended to follow his plan in order to fulfill the goals. He believes that first steps in performing his plan will have certain effect. An agent will get upset if those first steps fail.

ANGER

Anger is a result of agent’s disappointment. He gets upset , when his plan can not be

realized.

In this particular case, agent is angry when his plan fails. He is trying to make his plan work, but gets angry when everything goes wrong.

HOPE

Hope is a state, when agent is being pleased about the prospect of a desirable event.

An agent hopes to achieve some goal using some plan if and only if it intends to perform the plan for the goal and is committed to the plan.

• Belἰφ : agent ἰ believes in φ;• Goalἰφ: agent ἰ wants φ to be true;• Xφ : means that φ is true.•Possἰφ means that agent ἰ thinks that φ is possible.

Joyἰ φ= Belἰ φ Goal∧ ἰ φ

Agent ἰ feels joy if and only if ἰ believes that φ true and wants φ to be true. JOY

FEAR

An agent fears the failure to achieve some goal using some plan if and only if it hopes the plan will achieve the goal but it believes that it may not.

Fear is a state ,when agent is displeased about the prospect of an undesirable event.

«Hunger» as a feeling is based on “Predator and prey ” model, which is widely spread in economics

In this model, two participants coexist. The first one is a company-predator, big and successful corporation. It absorbs small businesses in order to improve its economic efficiency.The second participant is equally important. It is just a small business, in particular cases it can be a start-up. Let us consider it as a “prey”..

The “predator and prey” model interpretation from economic point of view

company feels “hunger”…

Determination of the branch Step 1 Formation of acquisition

companyStep 2Setting

outcomes of absorption

Step 3 Defining the criteria of the target companyStep 4

The list of potential prey companiesStep 5 Assessing the ability of

the preysStep 6 Completion of a dealStep 7 Assessment of the resultsStep 8

Phases of how “Predator” acquisits “Prey”

Lotka-Volterra model

0,0, RcRaRFRcRRadt

dR

0,0, FcFaFRFcFFadt

dF

F – the population of foxes at time t

R – the population of rabbits at time t

RF – interaction of rabbits and foxes ,where foxes reduce the rabbit population

FR – fox population growth due to the destruction of rabbits

aR – factor determining the rate of population increment due to breeding rabbits

cR – the intensity of the rabbits destruction by foxes

-aF – the rate of decrease of the population of foxes in the result of disappearance of rabbits

cF – intensity of foxes growth due to the acquisition

“Predator and Prey” Concept

Our modification of “Predator and prey” model includes a new operator – taxation of big companies, which lately is given to start-ups as subsidies. Taking into account this modification, the equations in our program look like this :

• If taxes are spent on improving infrastructure:

• If taxes are spent on direct subsidies:

Program results analysis

“Predator and prey ” model in economics

The program allows you to adjust:

, initial population of rabbits and foxes respectively

α, δ fertility rates of rabbits and foxes respectively

γ the mortality rate of foxes

β coefficient of predation

for rabbits and for foxes

coefficients of intraspecific competition

H happiness multiplier (determines the effectiveness of state aid to start-ups)

τ the proportion of foxes shot

T taxes collected for all periods

D the share of taxes, going to the rabbits aid

L part of the tax that is lost from the treasury (i.e. corruption)

The figure shows that wavelike population increase and decrease happen ,as for foxes and rabbits. Note that in the wake of the way the rabbit population reaches the minimum value, the population of foxes starts to extinct. As a result rabbits start to breed

The effect of "foxes" taxation and donating “rabbits” seen in the

gradual increase in the oscillation amplitude.

Experiment № 1

The results of the work

The figure shows that the model is very sensitive to small changes in the parameters and the system (economy) in the case of an incorrect adjustment may lead to stabilization of rabbits at a low level of foxes (large corporations), and then to the spikes and the collapse of both populations (the collapse of the economy)

The results of the work

Experiment № 2

This figure shows that there is a mode with very narrow range of parameters, in which a rapid increase in foxes and rabbits population happens

The results of the work

This is the main result of this study and confirms the hypothesis that the model

of the economy with the taxation of large corporations and subsidies to small

businesses can be extremely efficient in terms of innovation.

Experiment № 3

It should be noted that the deviation from the critical

values of the parameters of taxation may again lead to

economic growth in the presence of oscillatory

processes.

The results of the work

Experiment № 4

Aim of a research:

▪ To show the importance of emotions and feelings modeling in a multi-agent system and demonstrate this with the example of hunger model of the "predator-prey"

Conclusion

The paper presents the main types of emotions and their definitions. It shows how the model of the "predator-prey" can be used to select options and strategies for innovative economic development.

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