presented by: chris rededge.penton.com/documents/109689_rmc4_composites_forecast.pdf · red, c....

4th Annual Aerospace Raw Materials& Manufacturers Supply Chain Conference

March 3, 2014

PRESENTED BY:

CHRIS REDMANAGING PARTNER

ADVANCED COMPOSITES USAGE TRANSITIONING FROM MARKET PENETRATION TO ORGANIC GROWTH

EXPERT INSIGHTS AND RELIABLE INFORMATION FOR THE AVIATION INDUSTRY

Advanced Composites Usage Transitioning from Market Penetration to Organic Growth presented:

March 3, 2014

by Chris Red, principal Composites Forecasts and Consulting, LLC Mesa, Arizona www.compositesforecasts.com

of 18 Red, C. (2014, March 3). “Advanced Composites Usage Transitioning from Market Penetration to Organic Growth”

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Composites Forecasts and Consulting, LLC (CFC) was founded in 2011 to provide our clients with what we believe to be the most expansive and up-to-date information on the advanced composites industry. Our special focus is on the application and use of carbon fiber materials in such industries as: – Aerospace – Defense – Alternative energy – Industrial – Consumer products – and many more

Our products and services are designed to provide individuals and organizations with the information needed to plan their business strategies, investments in one of the strongest growing segments of global manufacturing. CFC continually develops its information databases and market research in an effort to support the growth and understanding of the uses and markets for advanced composite materials. It is our vision to become the preeminent provider of strategic information, market research, and forward looking forecasts.

About CFC

CFC’s founder, Chris Red, has 16 years of experience as a consultant and analyst for carbon fiber and advanced composite materials industries. He has a bachelors of science degree in technical communication from Arizona State University. During his career, he has served as an editor, contributing author for many of the industry’s trade publications, including High Performance Composites, Composites Technology, Manufacturing Engineering, Advanced Composites Monthly, Composites Industry Monthly, Composites Manufacturing, and has served as an information resource for a number of other reports, publications, and government policy statements.

For more information contact:

Composites Forecasts and Consulting, LLC www.compositesforecasts.com Ph: +1 480.225.9026

P.O. Box 31810 Mesa, Arizona 85275 USA

http://www.compositesforecasts.com/


Introduction

• Since the early 1970s the application of carbon composites has grown rapidly, displacing aluminum and alloy constructions in a wide range of applications

• Over the past decade major processing advancements have enabled the adoption of many large structures on virtually all new major aircraft programs.

• As a result, demand for composite raw materials and services are expected to grow to 80 percent of the next five years

• After this time, however, growth will be increasingly dependent upon continued health of aircraft sales and deliveries


Global Air Systems Unit Production Forecast

Market Segment Models in 2013-2022 2013 Total Airframe Forecasts Production Outlook Flyaway Weight (units) (millions of lb) • Comm. and Reg. Transports 35 15,300 72.4 • Business Aircraft 60 14,850 6.6 • General Aviation Aircraft 40 20,150 3.5 • Military Aircraft 44 5,100 6.1 • Jet Engines 62 66,175 29.0 • Rotorcraft 43 21,900 3.0 • UAS 30 172,920 0.3 • Missiles 42 135,400 10.5*

Total 358 ≈ 452,000 ≈ 130 M

* includes solid propellant

0

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20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Unmanned Aircraft Sys.

Missiles & Munitions

Rotorcraft

Jet Engines

General Aviation

Business Aircraft

Military Fixed-Wing

Un

it p

rod

uct

ion


1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

90

80

70

60

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20

10

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% o

f A

irfr

ame

We

igh

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ARJ-21 EMB-120

45 Years of Composites Evolution (commercial transports)

Entry Into Service

A300

A320 A330

A340

A380

A350

B717 B737 B747

B757

B767 B777

B787

ATR42

ATR72

CRJ100 CRJ1000

C-Series

Dash-8 100

Dash-8 400

ERJ-145

ERJ-170/190

SSJ-100

MRJ-70/90


EMB-120 A320 A330

A340

A380

A350

B757

B767 B777

B787

CRJ100 CRJ1000

C-Series

Dash-8 100

Dash-8 400

ERJ-145

ERJ-170/190

MRJ-70/90

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

00

% o

f A

irfr

ame

We

igh

t 45 Years of Composites Evolution

(military fixed-wing)

Entry Into Service

Commercial transports

M-311/345

M-346

MB-339 L-159

C-17

A400M

BAe Hawk

J-20

F/A-18 A-D

F/A-18 E-G

T-45 J-10

C-390

Rafale

T/A-50

EF2000

C-2

PC-9 C-130J

F-35

F/A-22

F-16 MiG-29

ATD-X

F-2

JAS-39 A-D

JAS-39 E-F

SU-27

T-50

IL-214

AMCA

Tejas

IL-112

Mirage 2000


1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

00

% o

f A

irfr

ame

We

igh

t

EMB-120 A320 A330

A340

A380

A350

B757

B767 B777

B787

CRJ100 CRJ1000

C-Series

Dash-8 100

Dash-8 400

ERJ-145

ERJ-170/190

MRJ-70/90

45 Years of Composites Evolution (general aviation)

Entry Into Service


Military Fixed Wing

HK36

Model 182 Skylane

Model 208 Caravan

SR-22

SR-20 SRV A-500

EA500

Model 400 Corvailis

EA400

DA20

DA40 DA42

Epic LT EA300


1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

00

% o

f A

irfr

ame

We

igh

t

EMB-120 A320 A330

A340

A380

A350

B757

B767 B777

B787

CRJ100 CRJ1000

C-Series

Dash-8 100

Dash-8 400

ERJ-145

ERJ-170/190

MRJ-70/90

45 Years of Composites Evolution (business jets)

Entry Into Service


Military Fixed Wing

Learjet 60 Learjet 45

Learjet 85

Challenger 300 Global Express

Citation Mustang

Citation Jet Citation Bravo

Challenger 600 Citation V

General Aviation

Citation Excel Citation X

Citation Longitude

SF 50

Falcon 50

Falcon 900 Falcon 2000

Falcon 7X

Falcon 5X

TBM 700

Eclipse 500

Phenom 100 Phenom 300

Legacy 450

Gulfstream G100

Gulfstream G400

Gulfstream G550

Gulfstream G650

Premier 1

Beechcraft 400XP

Beechcraft 750

Hawker 4000

HondaJet

Avanti

PC-12


EMB-120 A320 A330

A340

A380

A350

B757

B767 B777

B787

CRJ100 CRJ1000

C-Series

Dash-8 100

Dash-8 400

ERJ-145

ERJ-170/190

MRJ-70/90

45 Years of Composites Evolution

Entry Into Service


Military Fixed Wing

General Aviation

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

00

% o

f A

irfr

ame

We

igh

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Bizjets

EH101

AW109

AH-1Z

AW139

Lynx

BA609

Bell 407

Bell 206

Bell 427

Bell 412

Bell 430

Bell 429

AS 332

V-22

AH-64

Tiger

EC120

AS 350

EC 135

OH-1

EC 145

Enstrom 480

Dhruv

BK-117

MD 520

MD 600

UH-60

MD 900

NH90 MH-53K

S-92

UH-60M

S-76


EMB-120 A320 A330

A340

A380

A350

B757

B767 B777

B787

CRJ100 CRJ1000

C-Series

Dash-8 100

Dash-8 400

ERJ-145

ERJ-170/190

MRJ-70/90

45 Years of Composites Evolution

Entry Into Service


Military Fixed Wing

General Aviation

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

00

% o

f A

irfr

ame

We

igh

t

Bizjets

Rotorcraft

UAS

Jet Engines


Aerospace Composites Usage

• Global aerospace composite flyaway market:

Year Vol. (lb) US$ 5-Yr Rolling Avg. Avg $/lb

• 1985: 2.5 M >$1 B 11% ≈200

• 1995: 5.5 M $1.6 B 7% ≈290

• 2005: 10.8 M $3.3 B 7% ≈305

• 2010: 15.0 M $4.9 B 11% ≈326

• 2015: est. 29.8 M $9.4 B 20% ≈315

• 2020: est. 34.7 M $10.8B 1%


Penetration of Composites into Aerostructures

• 2013: Aerospace composite shipments represented about 18.6 M lb of flyaway weight, or 14% of total estimated aerostructures

• By 2019, composites will only account for 18% of the market

• Opportunities for further penetration are relatively small until around 2025.

0

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35,000

40,000

45,000

Total Aerostructures Composites

Un

its

in 1

00

0s

of

Po

un

ds

2013 Total Aerostructures vs. Composites

27%

13%

13% 38% 9%

60% 70% 7%


Is CFRP Stuck?

• For the aerospace composites suppliers to avoid being trapped into organic growth, a number of key issues will need to be addressed, including:

– Cost of component manufacturing

– Processing and curing speed

– Capital costs of new manufacturing capacity

– Assembly cost and integration

– Light weight and durability

• Competition continues to raise the bar


Cost Reduction Opportunities

• Typical autoclaved cured aerostructures for commercial aircraft can have a manufactured cost of between $290 and $360/lb (not including margin, engineering, or other value added services)

• Raw materials: productivity gains may allow for 4-8% drop in CF prices over next 10 years, resin price will go up

• Tooling and Jigs: this is heavily dependent upon fabrication and curing method

• Curing: this includes the cost and operation of an autoclave – getting out of the autoclave could cut costs 60%

• Assembly: should be relatively stable over forecast

• QA & Inspection: new automated NDI technology could improve reliability, improve process throughput by 10X – potential to cut costs in half

Raw Materials

14%

Tooling and Jigs 32% Curing

13%

Assembly 9%

QA & Inspection

32%

Cost Breakdown for CFRP Aerostructures

• Conclusion: 1) using current manufacturing paradigm will lead to stagnation;

2) technology improvements over the next 10-years could allow for CFRP manufacturing costs to be reduced 20-30%, and double productivity


‘OOA’ is the Potential Game Changer

• The next big inflection point for composites will be the eventual successors to the A320 and B737 families – Room for 2-3 programs each @ 400-600 units/year – Likely have all-composite wing, empennage, flight control, secondary… – Composite fuselage not likely, unless 1) 10-20% cost reduction and 2) 2-4X

productivity enhancement achieved

• Out-of-Autoclave (OOA) curing of composites addresses many of the cost centers in manufacturing; however, processes suitable for large structures have traditionally not been able to deliver comparable properties

• OOA secondary structures already make up 10% of aerospace composite deliveries

• By 2020 OOA will account for about 15% of aerospace composite deliveries

• The first primary OOA structures for aerospace are already starting to appear


The Next Inflection Point

• Successor single-aisle aircraft are not feasible until around 2025 or later – OEM investment recoup – Engines driving new design

concepts – Can CFRP displace 3rd gen. Al-Li?

• No: composite airframe content 35-40%

• Yes: composite airframe content 55-65%

– Could double demand for CFRP aerostructures (after A350 XWB intro)

– Potential to reduce program capital outlay by billions of dollars vs. comparable build-up with traditional autoclave processing

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Autoclaved Composites Current & Planned OOA If 60% Composites is achieved on A320/B737 Successor

Co

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(m

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Potential Impact of OOA on Commercial Transport Composite Requirements

40-45% of composite deliveries

6% of composite deliveries

10% of composite deliveries

Potential in-service date of 1st single-aisle successor


Summary

• Composite materials have earned a reputation as the high-tech & green aerospace raw material

• Aerospace composite deliveries grew CAGR 11% between 1970-2012

• Growth in CFRP deliveries are growing @ 20%/year between 2013-2017 – Currently 14% of total aerostructures volumes – New programs will drive CFRP to 18% of volumes within 10 years

• Market penetration stalls in 2018 and could last 7-9 years – New NDI and OOA processing could reduce costs of CFRP primary

structures by 20-30% in time for successor single-aisle – These techs could double demand for CFRP by 2030 – potentially

driving CFRP share from 20% to 30% of global aerostructures market between 2025 and 2030

presented by: chris rededge.penton.com/documents/109689_rmc4_composites_forecast.pdf · red, c....

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