Probabilistic forecast of major arable crops in Serbia and Austria

1Ana Firanj Sremac, 1Branislava Lalić, 2Dušanka Perišić, 3Josef Eitzinger, 4Ružica Stričević, 3Sabina Thaler, 1Ivana Maksimović, 1Milena Daničić and

5Ljiljana Dekić1 Faculty of Agriculture, University of Novi Sad, Dositej Obradovic Sq. 8, 21000 Novi Sad, Serbia 2 Faculty of Sciences, University of Novi Sad, Dositej Obradovic Sq. 4, 21000 Novi Sad, Serbia

3 Institute of Meteorology, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Gregor Mendel Str. 33, A-1180 Vienna, Austria

4 Faculty of Agriculture, University of Belgrade, Nemanjina 6 Zemun, 11080 Belgrade, Serbia 5Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia, Kneza Višeslava 66, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia

MOTIVATION Use of the seasonal weather predictions in crop modelling – look into the future Probabilistic forecast - tool for the measure of the success of the forecast PDF – input data effect

CMO Yield Green Water Footprint

2006-2014 NS GE NS GE

Prob. Dist. Normal Log-NormalWeibull

Normal Log-NormalWeibull

Normal Log-NormalWeibull

Normal Log-NormalWeibull

Maize 9 - 8 LN-1 9 - 9 -

Spring barley 5 LN-3, W-1 9 - 6 LN-3 9 -

Sunflower 7 LN-2 6 LN-3 9 - 7 LN-1, W-1

Wheat 6 W-3 6 W-3 7 LN-2 8 LN-1

Seasonal weather forecast for Novi Sad (Serbia) and Groß-Enzersdorf (Austria)2006-2014 – ensemble

AquaCropMaize, Spring Barley, Sunflower

SIRIUSWinter wheat

Ensemble of crop model output estimates

Ign

ora

nce

sco

re

fits_Yield_SF_GE_2009