ProCost Version 3

Christian Douglass, Ryan Firestone, Charlie Grist

Regional Technical ForumSeptember 22, 2015

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Presentation Outline

• ProCost Overview– What ProCost computes– How ProCost is used in Power Plan and by RTF

• Updates to ProCost– Architecture– Methodology

• Next steps

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ProCost Overview• Unit Energy Savings (UES) Measure – changes in system configuration,

equipment specifications or operating practices• Measure Application – permutation of measure identifiers (e.g., MH homes in

HZ3)• Savings Component – A component of savings that is modeled separately to

capture unique savings, cost, lifetime parameters (e.g., different load shapes for heating and cooling savings)

• Measure Analysis Workbook – workbook containing – Savings, cost, and lifetime analysis – Analysis methodology overview– Results: levelized cost, cost effectiveness– Measure specifications – Delivery verification

• ProCost – VBA algorithm that computes levelized cost and cost effectiveness of measure applications

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ProCost Overview

• ProCost computes UES measure– Levelized cost of savings ($/kWh)– Regional cost effectiveness (Societal Total Resource Cost (TRC))

Benefit/Cost (B/C) ratio– many additional cost, savings, and carbon parameters

• Each ProCost file can model multiple “applications” of a measure– Permutations of measure identifiers

• Each application can have multiple savings components

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Measure Analysis Workbook

ProCost Overview – Existing Architecture

Cost, Savings, and Lifetime analysis

ProCost engine (VBA)

Marginal Costs and Loadshapes Workbook

(“MC_and_Loadshapes”)

Application-level inputs (sheet “Measure_

InputOutput”)

Measure-level inputs (sheet “ProData”)

Application-level outputs (sheet

“Measure_InputOutput”)

“Summary” sheet• measure specs• delivery

verification• methodology

overview

Measure Tableformatted

summary of results

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Measure Analysis Workbook (Excel)

ProCost Overview – New Architecture

Cost, Savings, and Lifetime analysis

ProCost engine and Batch Run Tool (Excel)

Marginal Costs and Loadshapes file (Excel)

(“MC_and_Loadshapes”)

Application-level inputs (sheet “Measure_

InputOutput”)

Measure-level inputs (sheet “ProData”)

Application-level outputs (sheet

“Measure_InputOutput”)

“Summary” sheet• measure specs• delivery

verification• methodology

overview

Measure Tableformatted

summary of results

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ProCost Overview• Inputs (1)

– Measure application-specific data* (Sheet “Measure_InputOutput”)• Annual Savings (kwh/yr) and (therms/yr)• Life (yrs)• Capital Cost• Annual O&M Cost• Load Shape (separate electric and gas)• Non-electric Benefit ($/yr)• Periodic costs throughout lifetime of measure• NEW: Remaining useful life (RUL): time, updated annual savings, salvage value

*Can also be savings-component-specific inputs for a single application (e.g., savings from heatings, savings from cooling)

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ProCost Overview

• Inputs (2)– Measure-level data (Sheet “ProData”)

• Pointers to marginal costs and load shapes• Model options

– How to handle negative costs and benefits– Application of administrative cost adders– Repeat periodic costs

• Program parameters– Program life– Program start date

• Financial Parameters– Discount rate– Regional Act Conservation Credit– Cost of capital, by sponsor (customer, wholesale elec., retail elec., gas)

• Utility System Parameters– Average line loss– Value of avoided capacity– Risk mitigation credit

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ProCost Overview• Inputs (3)

– Marginal Cost and Loadshape file (“MC_and_Loadshape”)• Avoided cost of electricity, gas, and carbon• Load shapes• NEW: definitions of system peak hours

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ProCost Overview

• Engine– Computation of levelized costs and cost-effectiveness– VBA code in Excel file

• Outputs (sheet “Measure_InputOutput”)– Site and busbar savings (kWh, kW, therms)– Carbon savings– Present value costs and benefits to utility, region– Levelized cost– Cost effectiveness

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ProCost Overview

• The Measure Analysis file also houses:– Analysis of savings, cost, and lifetime, including

documentation of sources and supporting documents– Summary sheet, which summarizes

• Measure specifications• Delivery verification details• Savings, cost, and lifetime methodologies and data sources

– Sheet “MeasureTable”, which provides summary data for each instance of the measure

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Updates to ProCost – Interface• Gave ProData tab a new, fresh look with the Council’s

updated logo• Traded radio buttons for drop-down menus in favor of fewer

bugs across versions of Excel– Other code changes to minimize bugs were made as well

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Updates to ProCost - Architecture

• Disaggregation of ProCost engine from analysis file– Previous versions of ProCost housed engine and

measure analysis in same file• Pros – Streamlined use• Cons – Any change to ProCost analysis (VBA) means creating

new measure files for all ~100 UES measures, or living with differences

– Version 3 separates the two• Do not need to update measure analysis when engine

changes – just point new engine to measure analysis• Keeps analysis workbooks simpler – no named ranges, no

embedded VBA code (for most measures)

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Updates to ProCost - Architecture

• Batch run functionality– Engine is now housed in a file that allows for batch runs of

multiple ProCost input files– Facilitates analysis of suites of measures for Power Plan,

complex measures– Fast update of measures after a ProCost update

[Demonstration after slides]

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Updates to ProCost - Architecture

• Changes to MC_and_Loadshape file– Can handle 24 and 48 segment files (previously

had to be 48)– Specify peak hours (previous hard coded in

ProCost)

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Updates to ProCost - Methodology• Load Shapes

– Previously 48 segment (4 segment x 12 months) shapes specified in MC_and_Loadshape

– Now MC_and_Loadshape contains Generalized Load Shapes (GLS)• Hourly load profiles for weekday, holiday, and peak day• Energy analysis: ProCost engines converts this to 24 segment or 48 segment• Demand analysis: ProCost uses GLS

• Demand (coincident peak kW)– Previously based on average demand within several time segments (48

segments per year)• Time segments hard-coded in ProCost engine

– Now based on maximum demand within individual hours (e.g., 6p.m. weekdays in Jan/Feb/Dec)• Hours specified in MC_and_Loadshape file• Load-shapes contain mapping to peak days of each month• >>> these changes results in higher Demand savings

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Updates to ProCost - Methodology• Line losses

– Previously used average marginal line loss factor for all time periods– Now have line loss correlated to coincidence with system loads

• Higher line loss at times of high system load• Lower line loss at time of low system load

• Remaining Useful Life (RUL)– Previously, only a single stream of savings and costs– Now an RUL can be specified

• Time, change in savings, and salvage value of capital

– T&D deferral, risk mitigation based on post-RUL savings

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Updates to ProCost - Methodology• Costs– Periodic O&M – Correction of handling of periodic

O&M costs, simplification of code

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Next Steps• RTF CAT to finalize computation changes in ProCost engine

– Wrap up by mid to late October

• Council to release Draft Seventh Plan in October (anticipated)

• Council staff to present cost effectiveness methodology from Draft Seventh Plan at November RTF meeting

• Bonneville (and RTF) will convert RTF workbooks to new format throughout fall– Mostly stripping files of ProCost engine, named ranges

– RTF CAT will work with Bonneville/contractors

– Will run workbooks with DRAFT 7th Plan parameters

• Council to release Final Seventh Plan in February (anticipated)

• RTF to adopt Final Seventh Plan cost-effectiveness methodology in February

• Once RTF approves, RTF staff will re-run all measures with final methodology and start using ProCost version 3 for all new measure development

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Wish list, other changes• Add Capacity credit (as per 7th Plan)• Option to set program life equal to measure

life– More appropriate for RTF analysis

• Cleaning code• Improving commenting of code• Documentation