propuesta credit suisse pemex septiembre 2010 · upstream exploration strategy: deep waters area...
TRANSCRIPT
PEMEX OutlookSeptember 2010
Forward-Looking StatementsThis presentation contains forward-looking statements. We may also make written or oral forward-lookingThis presentation contains forward looking statements. We may also make written or oral forward lookingstatements in our periodic reports to the Comisión Nacional Bancaria y de Valores (Mexican National Bankingand Securities Commission, or CNBV), and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), in our annualreport, in our offering circulars and prospectuses, in press releases, in other written materials, and in oralstatements made by our officers, directors or employees to third parties.
We may include forward-looking statements that address, among other things, our:• drilling and other exploration activities;• import and export activities;• projected and targeted capital expenditures and other costs and;• commitments revenues and liquidity etccommitments, revenues and liquidity, etc.
Actual results could differ materially from those projected in such forward-looking statements as a result ofvarious factors that may be beyond our control. These factors include, but are not limited to:
• changes in international crude oil and natural gas prices;• effects on us from competition;• effects on us from competition;• limitations on our access to sources of financing on competitive terms;• significant economic or political developments in Mexico;• developments affecting the energy sector; and• changes in our regulatory environment.
Accordingly, you should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. In any event, thesestatements speak only as of their dates, and we undertake no obligation to update or revise any of them,whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. These risks and uncertainties are morefully detailed in PEMEX’s most recent Form 20-F filing with the SEC (www.sec.gov), and the prospectus filedwith the CNBV available through the Mexican Stock Exchange (www bmv com mx) These factors could cause
2
with the CNBV, available through the Mexican Stock Exchange (www.bmv.com.mx). These factors could causeactual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statement.
Cautionary NoteProved reserves estimates as of December 31, 2009 are consistent with the comments received fromthe independent engineering firms during the process of auditing Mexico’s reserves However asthe independent engineering firms during the process of auditing Mexico’s reserves. However, asestablished in the Regulatory Law to Article 27 of the Constitution of the United Mexican StatesConcerning Petroleum Affairs, the National Hydrocarbons Commission is currently reviewing thehydrocarbon reserves evaluation reports. The Energy Ministry will disclose the hydrocarbon reservesof the country once this review is complete. It is possible that differences may arise, particularly withy p p y , p yrespect to the probable and possible reserves associated with the Chicontepec project.
As of January 1, 2010, the SEC changed its rules to permit oil and gas companies, in their filings withthe SEC, to disclose not only proved reserves, but also probable reserves and possible reserves.However, the probable or possible reserves described herein do not necessarily meet thep p yrecoverability thresholds established by the SEC in its new definitions. Investors are urged toconsider closely the disclosure in our Form 20-F “File No. 0-99” and our annual report to the CNBV,available at www.pemex.com.
EBITDA(1) is a non-GAAP measure.
Convenience translations into U.S. dollars of amounts in Mexican pesos from 2002 to 2007 have been made at the following exchange rates for the corresponding years in pesos per U.S.$: 2003, 11.23; 2004, 11.26; 2005, 10.77; 2006, 10.88; and 2007, 10.86. In addition, convenience translations into U.S. dollars of amounts in pesos for the income statement have been made at the following average exchange rates for the corresponding periods in pesos per U.S.$: 2008, 11.18; 2009, 13.52; and 1Q10, 12.79, unless otherwise noted. Finally, convenience translations into U.S. dollars of amounts in pesos for the balance sheet have been made at the established exchange rate at March 31, 2010 of 12.33 pesos per U.S.$. Such translations should not be construed as a representation that the peso amounts have been of could be converted into U S dollars at the foregoing or any other rate
3
amounts have been of could be converted into U.S. dollars at the foregoing or any other rate.
Cumulative or annual variations are computed as compared to the same period of the previous year, unless otherwise specified.
Content
Energy Reform
Upstream
Downstream
Financial HighlightsFinancial Highlights
Key Investment Considerations
4
Energy Reform
PEMEX Value Creation
Corporate Governance Special Contracting Regime Financial Flexibility
d h h Fl ibl I d d • Board with the participation of professional members.
• Flexible procurement and contracting.
• Independent financial program (without affecting our free cash flows).members.
• Incorporation of best corporate practices.
• Contracts with performance incentives.
our free cash flows).
• Financing from external sources.
• Schemes to develop and support suppliers and contractors in
• Citizen bonds.
• Differentiated fiscal
5
order to increase participation of Mexican providers.
regime.
Content
Energy Reform
Upstream
Downstream
Financial HighlightsFinancial Highlights
Key Investment Considerations
6
Total Reserves by Area
Reserves and Prospective Resources
Oil and Gas
Basin Production
as of December 31, 2009MMMboe (billions of barrels of oil equivalent)
Basin 3P(1) 2P(1)
Burgos and Sabinas 0.9 0.6 0.4
1P(1)
Gas
B
Deep-waters 0.6 0.2 0.1
Southeastern 23.4 17.5 12.6Tampico–Misantla (ATG) 18.5 9.7 0.8Veracruz 0.2 0.2 0.2
Tampico-Misantla
Sabinas
19
Tampico-Misantla
BurgosSabinas
Gulf of Mexico
Deep sea exploration
P ti R
Total(2) 43.1 28.2 14.0Equivalent to(years of production)(2) 31.3 20.5 10.2
dd
tla19.20.3
ddVeracruz
Prospective Resources
Basin MMMboe
Burgos 3.1Deep waters in the Gulf of Mexico 29.5
Southeastern
Sabinas 0.3Southeastern 16.7Tampico-Misantla (ATG) 1.7Veracruz 0.7Y tá Pl tf 0 3
7
Yucatán Platform 0.3
Total(2) 52.3
(1) “3P” means the sum of proved, probable and possible reserves; “2P” means the sum of proved and probable reserves; and “1P” means proved reserves. (2) Numbers may not total due to rounding.
MMboe
Historical Trend of the Reserves Replacement Rate
56.9% 59.2% 59.7% 65.7%
102.1%
128.7%
1 000
1,500
2,000MMboe
25.5% 22.7% 26.4%41.0%
50.3%
71.8% 77.1%44.7%56.9%
0
500
1,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20092003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Production 1P reserves replacement rate(1) 3P reserves replacement rate
1 51.9
1 41.7
2.22
2.5
1.5 1.41.2 1.3
0
0.5
1
1.5
8
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009Exploration Investment (U.S.$ billion)
(1) Includes delineations, developments and revisions.
Upstream Exploration Strategy: Deep Waters
AreaGeological
RiskWater depth
(meters)
Prospective resources
(MMboe)1
Perdido
(MMboe)
1. Perdido folded belt Low-Moderate >2000 100-600
2. Oreos Moderate-High 800-2000 40-130
3 Nancan High 500 2500 35 290
2
3Gulf of
Southern Gulf of Mexico
3. Nancan High 500-2500 35-290
4. Jaca-Patini Moderate-High 1000-1500 90-260
5. Lipax Moderate 950-2000 50-200
Low-Moderate (Western) 1500-2000 100-480
8
976
5
4Gulf of
Mexico “B”
6. Holok(Western) Moderate-High(Eastern)
600-1100 65-300
7. Temoa High 850-1950 20-270
8 H Hi h
Heavy oil Gas / Light oilLight oil
8. Han High 450-2250 80-350
9. Nox-Hux Moderate 650-1850 90-250
• These nine areas have been defined as the most important in Mexican deep waters,
9
considering economic value, prospective size, hydrocarbon type, geological risk,proximity to production facilities and environmental restrictions as the most relevantcriteria.
Light Oil Trend with More than 1,100 MMboe of Total Reserves
Xux-Tsimin:
Giant complex with more than 1,170 MMboe of total
CampoTsimin
reserves.
Located close to May field.
Well productivity of Tsimin Well productivity of approximately 6,000 bd(barrels per day) of oil and 20 MMcfd million cubic feet per day of gas.
132147 148 150
158
140
160
180
200 Oil density of 43° API (gas
and condensate).
Located in shallow waters Xux – Tsimin
(1P = 227 MMboe)elds
Size of Discoveries in the Gulf of Mexico*
35
68
119132
98
69
2840
60
80
100
120
140Located in shallow waters and close to the shore.
High expectations for making new discoveries around this
Num
ber
of f
i
10
11 14 101
0
20
< 0.125 < 0.25 < 0.5 < 1 < 2 < 4 < 8 < 16 < 32 < 64 < 128 < 256 < 512 < 1,024 < 2,048
area.
Delineation in progress. Proved reserves, MMboe
* Source: Mineral Management Service, Department of the Interior, U.S. Federal Government.
Heavy Oil Trend with more than 1,200 MMboe of Total Reserves
Producing well
Ayatsil-Tekel:
Giant complex with more than 725 MMboe of total reserves. Pit
Baksha
TunichNab
NumaKayab
Kanche
Bok
Lem
g
Drilling well
Non-productive well
Delineation well
100
500
Platform
Pipe line
Located close to Maloob field.
Well productivity of approximately 5,000 bd using electric submersible pumps (ESP)
n
Maloob
TsonDL 1
DL 1
Yaxiltun Tekel
PP-M-BPP-M-A
Ayatsil
DL 1
PohpDL 1
(ESP).
Oil density of 12° API.
Development plan in progress.
Pit- Baksha:
Zaap
DL3
Bacab
PP M A
PP-Zaap-C
E-Ku-A2 PP-Ku-S
PP-Bacab-ALum-A
PB-Ku-H
PP-Zaap-D
PP-Zaap-A
E-Ku-A2
1
2
3
147 148 150158
160.0
180.0
200.0
Giant complex with more than 510 MMboe of total reserves.
Development based on Ayatsil-Tekel-Pit-Baksha (1P = 387 MMboe)
Size of discoveries in the Gulf of Mexico*
Ku
35
68
119132
98
69
40 0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0connection with Ayatsil-Tekel.
Well productivity of approximately 4,500 bd using ESP.
umbe
r of
fie
lds
( )
11
11 14
35 28
101
0.0
20.0
40.0
< 0.125 < 0.25 < 0.5 < 1 < 2 < 4 < 8 < 16 < 32 < 64 < 128 < 256 < 512 < 1,024 < 2,048
Oil density of 12° API.
Development plan in progress.
N
Proved reserves, MMboe* Source: Mineral Management Service, Department of the Interior, U.S. Federal Government.
PEMEX Production is StabilizingDaily Crude Oil Production (Mbd)
Production in other fields increased by
9.4% in 2009. Cantarell’s share of
d ti h d d t
y ( )
production has decreased over recent
yeats, but increased production in
other fields has offset this decline,
maintaining total production
Actions taken in Cantarell to reduce
maintaining total production.
Akal BlockJan 2006 - Feb 2010
decline rate levels include:
1. Intensive major workovers;
2. Control of water-oil and gas–oil contact; 101
103
105
107
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000Produced gas from the transition zone Total oil production Pressure (@1488mvbmr)
3. Pressure increase in the gas cap through gas
injection, in order to maintain pressure in the
oil column; and 93
95
97
99
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
12
4. Control to facilitate gravity drainage,
resulting in a quasi-constant oil thickness. 87
89
91
0
100
200
300
400
ene/
06
mar
/06
may
/06
jul/0
6
sep/
06
nov/
06
ene/
07
mar
/07
may
/07
jul/0
7
sep/
07
nov/
07
ene/
08
mar
/08
may
/08
jul/0
8
sep/
08
nov/
08
ene/
09
mar
/09
may
/09
jul/0
9
sep/
09
nov/
09
ene/
10
mar
/10
may
/10
jul/1
0
Upstream Production Strategy: ATG (Chicontepec)
VERACRUZ
HIDALGO
• Area: 3,731 km2
• Comprised of 29 fields
Characteristics
CUENCA DECHICONTEPEC
FAJA DE OROTERRESTRE
GULF OFMEXICO
• Comprised of 29 fields
• Oil gravity: 18-45° API
• Reserves (MMMboe) - 1P: 0.8- 2P: 9.7
FAJA DE OROMARINA
TUXPAN
POZA RICA
• Operating wells: 1,070
• Drilling rigs: 78
Current structure (1)- 3P: 18.1
PALEOCANAL DECHICONTEPEC
PUEBLA
Drilling rigs: 78
• Oil production:
29 Mbd as of December 31, 2009
48 Mbd as of September 19 2010 48 Mbd as of September 19 2010
• Current cumulative production represents only one percent of project´s total reserves.
C l i l l d i h l bili i ll d i i
13
• Complex reservoir geology coupled with low permeability impacts well productivity.
• Therefore, exploitation demands an evolving strategy based on rapid assimilation of new technologies and best operating practices.
Technological innovation and implementation of better exploitation approaches can be
Field Labs
Goals F i l
Allocation of 10km2 per contractor to
Technological innovation and implementation of better exploitation approaches can be achieved through the field labs scheme.
Focus investments on value creation.
Increase well productivity through the implementation of best
develop 5 areas.
the implementation of best practices.
Apply technological solutions to performing challenging activities.
Redesign wells and infrastructure works to correspond to the conditions of the applicable field.
Improve contractual terms with contractors to reduce costs.
Develop business models in
14
accordance with the characteristics of Chicontepec, utilizing third parties.
Mature Fields Represent an Opportunity to Generate Value
202 marginal fields
▪ Proved reserves represent 29 percent of total reserves. This implies a great opportunity for reserves reclassification.
Remaining Reserves and Production to be Recovered (MMboe)
139590
228
519786
▪ Furthermore, 57 percent of total reserves are documented for production. Our goal is to document an additional 139 228 451
1P 2P 3P Producción
Reservas Documentada AdicionalReserves Documented Additional
Production
document an additional 139 MMboe.
Benefits
▪ Average production to be recovered in the 2011-2025 period is estimated at 94 Mbdof oil and 162 MMcfd of gas.
▪ Our objective is to produce 75 percent of total remaining reserves.j p p g
▪ With support from third parties, we should be able to recover these additional hydrocarbons, through technological improvements and increased operational efficiency.
15
▪ Increased execution capacity requires drilling wells in addition to those already included in our current project portfolio (an average of 500 wells between 2011-2025) in areas such as Cinco Presidentes, Muspac, Poza Rica and Burgos.
Contracting Alternatives: Capability and Execution In the short term, PEMEX must leverage the use of Performance Contracts and alternative
contracts to develop internal capabilities in core businessescontracts to develop internal capabilities in core businesses.
Each project’s execution strategy is defined as a function of its complexity and PEMEX’s internalcapability. The proposed contracting schemes are: Performance Contracts (PC), Field Labs (FL)and Transactional Service Contracts (TSC).
Low Medium High
Internal Capability
InternalCapability:
High PC PCFL
FLTSC
exit
y
Capability:• Human
Resources• Technology• Cost Efficiency
Medium PC FL
FLTSC TSC
Com
ple
Complexity:•Scale
• Cost Efficiency
Low FLTSC TSC TSC
•Scale•Technological
Challenge•Service Market
16
Deep waters Chicontepec Mature Field (Reactivation)
Exploration & Production Has Redefined Its Strategic Goals
• Reach a replacement rate of 100 percent ofproved reserves by 2012.
• Improve recovery ratios / reduce decline curve.
Production & reserves
• Develop mature fields.• Complete field laboratories and manage
Chicontepec in accordance with new developmentistrategies.
• Develop new fields in shallow waters.
• Reduce gas flaring to levels that comply withinternational standards.
Competitiveness • Utilize Performance Contract for blocks in maturefields, Chicontepec and initial production fromfields in deep waters.
17
• Maintain competitive levels of discovery,development and production costs.
Content
Energy Reform
Upstream
Downstream
Financial HighlightsFinancial Highlights
Key Investment Considerations
18
Downstream Strategies
Refining• Reduce operational gaps
• Eliminate subsidies
• Increase processing infrastructure according to primary production (sweetening, liquefied natural gas (LNG) recovery, liquid fractionation and sulphur recovery)
• Capture the benefits associated with rich non-associated gas production in the Northern Region.
• Increase transport capacity as required by production and demand.
• Encourage private sector participation in transport and storage
Natural gas
Encourage private sector participation in transport and storage.
• Diversify supply sources and analyze participation in LNG projects.
• Focus on most profitable chains and redirecting resources from those Focus on most profitable chains and redirecting resources from those non profitable:
• Encourage participation of private sector in developing new projects and capturing business opportunities in selected chains.
Petrochemicals
19
• Increase efficiency and de-bottlenecking of profitable chains.
• Divest non-profitable and marginally profitable chains.
Content
Energy Reform
Upstream
Downstream
Financial HighlightsFinancial Highlights
Key Investment Considerations
20
5.75
Investments (1)(2)(3)
(Billion pesos)TOTAL 263.4
32.0
170.1201.7
251.9220.0
2.0%Pemex-Petroquímica
Pemex-Gas y
113.7 122.9 127.0150.4
170.1
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 E(7)
12%Pemex-Refinación
2.0%Pemex Gas y PetroquímicaBásica
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 E(7)
Pemex-Exploración y Producción
84%
U.S.$ billion10.7 10.9 10.8 13.8 15.6 18.1(4) 18.6(5) 20.8 E(6)(7)
21
(1) Figures may not total due to rounding(2) Includes upstream maintenance expenditures(3) Nominal figures
(4) Pesos per U.S.$: 11.15 (7) “E” means Estimated(5) Pesos per U.S.$: 13.52(6) Pesos per U.S.$: 12.66
Expected Sources and Uses of Funds, 2010(U.S.$ billion)
15.2 38.0 20.8
Sources Uses
14.8
8.9
8.0 8.4
• PEMEX’s financing program for 2010 amounts to approximately U.S.$15.2 billion.
• To date, we have obtained financing for approximately U.S.$8.2 billion.
• Additionally, we expect to obtain approximately U.S.$2.8 billion from export credit agency financing and contractor financing.
• Also, we expect to raise around U.S.$2.0 billion from bank loans, and between U.S$1.0 billion and US$2.2 billion from the capital markets (local and international). We expect to use a portion of these funds for liability management operations.
22
• In addition, we anticipate having approximately U.S.$3.25 billion in funds available from revolvingfacilities by the end of the year.
(1) Information as of August 31, 2010
26 0
Debt PortfolioMaturity Profile – Consolidated DebtUS$ billion 26.0 US$ billion
Outstanding amount as of June 2010: 48.8 U.S.$ billion
4.2 4.0 5.2 4.9 4.5
Jul.10-Dec. 10 Jan. 11-Jun. 11 Jul.11-Jun. 12 Jul.12-Jun. 13 Jul.13-Jun. 14 Jul.14 throughfollowing years
Debt by InstrumentPercentage
Debt by Currency ExposurePercentage
Other
ECAs
Cebures
ECAs
InternationalBonds
23
BankLoans
Content
Energy Reform
Upstream
Downstream
Financial HighlightsFinancial Highlights
Key Investment Considerations
24
Key Investment Considerations
Thi d l t d f d il i th ld•Third-largest producer of crude oil in the world
•Eleventh-largest integrated oil company in the world
Solid credit profile•Solid credit profile
•Improved regulatory framework
•Proved reserves equivalent to more than 10 years of production•Proved reserves equivalent to more than 10 years of production
•Key supplier of crude oil to the U.S. market
•Sole producer of crude oil, natural gas and refined products in MexicoSole producer of crude oil, natural gas and refined products in Mexico
25
