pt excelcomindo pratama tbk. telecommunication industry

CONFIDENTIAL PT Excelcomindo Pratama -2007 1

PT Excelcomindo Pratama Tbk.

Telecommunication IndustryDecember 2007

This document contains confidential and proprietary information belonging toPT Excelcomindo Pratama Tbk., which information may be used

only in connection with the business of PT Excelcomindo Pratama Tbk.


• Access Network: 2G and 3G• Core Network: Mobile Soft-Switch• Transmission:

– TDM (PDH – for Transmission Access)– (SDH, DWDM – for Backbone)– (VSAT – for access in isolated area, or backup)– IP (MPLS – for IP Backbone)


Agenda

Industry Trend and Technology Evolution2

Telecommunication Industry Overview1

Outline

• Telecommunication network; Mobile or Fixed?

• The Mobile Source Growth; Voice or Data?

• Asia Pacific Mobile Telecoms Market

• Indonesian Market

3 Summary and Feedback


Mobile of Fixed?More mobile consumers than fixed network subscribers

Worldwide

Source: IDATE, 2007

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Mill

ions Fixed Lines (Developed Countries)

Fixed Lines (Developing Countries)

Mobile Customer (Developed Countries)

Mobile Customer (Developing Countries)

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2004 2005 2006F 2007F 2008F 2009F 2010F 2011F

Mill

ions Fixed Line Subs

Mobile Subs

Source: BMI, Q1 2007

Indonesia

■ Worldwide■ Mobile subs growth surpassed

fixed subs growth.■ Mobile traffic is increasing while

fixed traffic is decreasing in all major markets

■ Indonesia■ Mobile subs surpassed fixed line in

2002 and continuously growing■ Growth of fixed line coming from

CDMA-based fixed wireless technologies.

■ Wireless will be preferred media of communications.


Voice or Data?Mobile Voice and Data ARPU trend

Source: Chetan Sharma Consulting, Aug 2007

■ Mobile Voice ARPU slowly declined

■ In opposite, Mobile Data ARPU gradually increased

■ Indonesia will follow in the next few years

Sample Case in US


APAC growth driven by India and IndonesiaAsia Pacific Telecoms - Penetration

Source: Frost & Sullivan, 2007


APAC subscriber growth in 2007 still driven by 2G/2.5GAsia Pacific Telecoms – Mobile Subscribers

Source: Frost & Sullivan, 2007


Mobile and Internet Industry are main drivers of Indonesia telecommunication industry

Indonesia Telecommunication Industry Trends

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

2004 2005 2006e 2007f 2008f 2009f 2010f 2011f

No. of Main Telephone Lines inServices (000)No. of Mobile Phone Subs(000)

No. of 3G Phone Subscribers(000)No. of Internet Users (000)

No. of Broadband Internet Subs(000)

Source: BMI, 2007


Market Net Revenue (RpTn)

Market Net Revenue (RpTn)

Wireless Voice and SMS remain the biggest contribution Indonesian Market Outlook

1. Including FWASource: IDC; Analyst reports; Team analysis

2010

90.0

23.2

9.6 2.8 1.6

2006

44.8

16.5

1.6 1.8 0.4

Wireless (Voice & SMS) PSTN Broadband Corporate services Other (VAS, VoIP, Ads)

Voice and SMS: 71% of total telecom revenue (87% excl PSTN) in 2010Voice and SMS: 71% of total telecom revenue (87% excl PSTN) in 2010


Wireless revenue will have slower growth, but the intense of competition will higher

Indonesia Telecommunication Industry Trends - Wireless

Actual and forecasted wireless revenue growth

58

1825

3445

9081

70

0

20

40

60

80

100

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007F 2008F 2009F 2010F0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%Revenue(Rp Tn)

YOYRevenueGrowth(%)

Rp Tn

CAGR: 34% CAGR: 16%

SIM’s penetration 9% 14% 22% 27% 38% 46% 52% 58%

Actual

Forecast

3-5 Players >11 PlayersNo. of Players

1. Major players onlySource: Analyst report; Team analysis


Agenda


Telecommunication Industry Landscape 1

Outline

• Industry Trend

• Telecommunication Vision

• Technology Roadmap



Future Trend: Driven by Market’s Needs of Communication & Information

Convergence is a trend of telecommunication !!

Customer’s needs :• Multi services : Voice, Text , Image, Video • “Seamless experience” in technology crossover• One number ( profile) for multi access service

• Broadband internet / data• Less Price• Mobility


Future TrendGrowth of Fixed Mobile Convergence

■ Development of Fixed Mobile Substitution■ Fixed network already

been crowded by mobile network

■ Driven by mobile handset functionality

■ Mobile vs. Fixed■ Fixed operators enter

broadband outdoor with BWA technology.

■ Mobile operator enter wireless indoor with BWA technology.Source: Alcatel-Lucent, 2007

■ The trend will continue given the focus on Fixed Mobile Convergence (FMC)■ Offering mobility, flexibility, and all in one product


Network will be all-IP based and converged in the future

■ Network will be all IP-based in the future■ Fixed Network

■Copper (TDM) to xDSL

■ Mobile Network■3G and HSPA

■ Cable Network■ Internet access

in setup box.

■ Converged NGN will be the future network.

Source: FOKUS - Berlin, 2006


Potential Impact of global trend to Indonesia in the future

3G Arena:• Incumbent• New entrant• cdma2000

VoIP Operators:

Broadcast Operators:GaharuEtc.

Digital TVVoice, Data

Voice over IP

BWA Arena (fixed/low mobility):

Media ArenaFixed Line Operators:

PSTNInternet

Media over Internet

IP-based servicesHigh Speed Data

VoIP ServiceFMC

Internet

Video Call

High speed Data

Mobile TVPresence

Video on Demand

Source: Internal Analysus

http://www.telkomsel.com/web/index.php

http://www.mystarone.com/

http://www.cbn.net.id/


MOBILE WIRELESS VISIONTHE VISION

Telco

Vision


Wireless Technology Roadmap

Source: Siemens, Jan 2007


The migration to NGN with IMS will enable integration (convergence) of broadband, video, wireless and wireline services.

Depending on business feasibility

*) Year is the projection launch time, and subject to awarded license. Technology is on mature stage or has been deployed on other countries

Cellu

lar N

etwo

rk(h

igh

mob

ility)

BWA

Netw

ork

(fixe

d/lo

w m

obilit

y)

PAST 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 FUTURE

All

IP N

GN

Net

wor

k

Convergence

PAST 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 FUTURE

Core

Net

work

GPRS

2012

2012

HSDPA

HSUPA

WiFi

WiMAX for fixed application

WiMAX for mobile Application

TDM switchingIP soft switching

IMS

Add On Application Server

Convergent Billing

4G

Slight, but increasing High DecreasingLEGEND

WCDMA

GSM

UMA


ApplicationsApplicationenvironment

SGSN GGSN CSCF

ISUPSIP

TDM

MGCF

EnhancedNetwork Services

PSTN /

PLMNMGW

IPbackbone

IMS

InternetTDM

BTS BSC

BTS

ATM

NodeB RNC

NodeB

IP

RNC RNC

NodeB NodeB

GPRS

EDGE

HSDPA

HSUPA

WLAN

WiMAX

DVB-H

R99

RNC

BSC

From TDM to ATM to ‘All IP’…

SYSTEMS TRANSPORT EVOLUTION


Effort Required

High effort at the beginning and then …


Example of Product & Services roadmap

Circ

uit B

ased

Se

rvic

esPa

cket

Bas

ed

Serv

ices

PAST 2007 2008 2009 2010 FUTURE

Full

IMS

Ser

vice

s (N

GN

)A

ll IP

Net

wor

k (fu

lly c

onve

rgen

ce)

•Com

mon

Pla

tform

•Com

mon

Dev

ices

Convergence

PAST 2007 2008 2009 2010 FUTURE

TDM VoiceSMSVoice MailVoice SMSCLIR, Call ForwardingConferenceCall WaitingVoIP Internationaletc

GPRSWAPData AccessInternet Access

Video CallVideo Conference

EmailHigh Speed Internet GamesMusicSportInfotainmentAudio StreamingVideo Streaming

3G+HSPA IMS

Fixed BWA Low Mobility BWA

*) Depending on the business feasibility

Video Sharing

Mobile TVm-commerce.Information ServicesLocation Based Servicesm-advertising

N/A

VoIP (PC)Large File TransferVideo on DemandHigh Volume InternetMultimedia MessagingInteractive GamesVoice Call Continuity (VCC)

N/A

Unified MessagingDirectoryPresenceReal-time ChatPush to talkVoIP (Handset)Multimedia conferenceVideo mailbox

GSM+GPRSFull Mobility

Low MobilityVoice Data Video Multimedia


Agenda


Telecommunication Industry Landscape 1

Outline

• Summary

• Feedback



SUMMARY

Converging multiple disparate networks into an IP platform makes good business sense for mobile operators. It results in lower operational costs and heightened efficiencies

Despite of significant Data traffic growth, Voice and SMS will still be the major contributors to the Telecommunication Industry Growth at least for the next 5 years

Wireless market in Indonesia has become a very competitive market with many players involvement. This trend will force player to endorse low pricing strategy

The technology development is still driven by equipment manufacturer/vendor

The industry trend is going towards fix and mobile convergence to offer more mobility, higher flexibility and all in one product concept


Feedback

• Industri Telekomunikasi berkembang sangat pesat, teknologinya berrevolusi sangatcepat, memerlukan banyak sumber daya yang siap pakai. Diharapkan lebih banyaklagi pengkayaan dalam kurikulum di universitas yang membahas teknologi yang dipakai di industri, sebagai tambahan dari ilmu dasarnya.

• Menyiapkan sumber daya atau lulusan yang mampu melihat dari berbagai sisi, selaindari sisi teknikal atau teknologi tapi juga aspek regulasi/undang-undang, industri and bisnisnya.

• Universitas mendekati Industri dan sebaliknya untuk mengurangi kondisi sebagai net buyer, melakukan riset untuk area khusus (selected development), misalnya untukOEM (Other Equipment Manufacturer), tidak perlu untuk main equipment. Juga untukmerangsang pengembangan content atau aplikasi yang akan men-drive perkembangan technology oleh vendor, bukan hanya arah sebaliknya.


TERIMA KASIH

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