Public Lands DependenceDeveloping Statewide Indicators for BLM User Group Dependence

GIS Colorado Summer Meeting Presentation7 August 2015

John GioiaWSCU Master in Environmental Management

Phase 1 of BLM Colorado Social Vulnerability Assessment

Overview

Project Overview

What is Social Vulnerability?

Research Questions

ArcGIS Analysis Next Steps

Project OverviewColorado BLM Social Vulnerability Assessment

• What is the current state of knowledge about the vulnerability to climate change of public land-dependent livelihoods in this region?

• What are BLM field offices doing currently in order to consider the vulnerability of public land-dependent livelihoods?

Literature Review for Publication, Document Review for “Grey Literature” Publication

How will land-based livelihoods be affected by climate change in the context of BLM management decisions?

Social Science Research: Case Studies at BLM Field Offices (Gunnison, Little Snake)

What are the characteristics of dependence on public lands across the state?

Spatial Analysis

Project OverviewColorado BLM Social Vulnerability Assessment

EcologySociety

Hydrology Range health Wildlife

Grazing Recreation Tribal / Cultural

Climate change

Climate change

Climate change

Climate change

What is Social Vulnerability?Exposure - The degree to which a system is exposed to climate changes

Sensitivity - The degree to which a system is affected by climate

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Adaptive Capacity - The ability of a system to adjust to climate change

Vulnerability – The degree to which a system is susceptible or unable to cope with adverse effects of climate change.

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Livestock Ranching Outdoor Recreationand Tourism

• Drought• Change in timing of

spring runoff• Increasing temperature• Reduced snowpack• Extreme precipitation

and soil degradation

• Impacts to fisheries• Wildfire and other natural

disasters • Habitat changes that

result in changing species compositions

• Forest loss due to insect infestation

• Decreasing soil moisture

• Increased prevalence of insects and disease

• Temperature extremes

• Increasing pressure from global markets

• Increasing pressure to transfer water rights

• Perceptions of visitors due to extreme weather events

• Water restrictions• Increased visitation

• Shifting land use policies

• Environmental policies (e.g., Endangered Species Act)

Socio-economic and political impacts

Climate-related impacts

Research Questions

What is Public Lands Dependence?

Where are grazers most dependent on

BLM land?

Where are recreation users most dependent

on BLM land?

How can we compare dependence on a statewide basis?

How do we quantify it? How do we show it?

Data SourcesUser Groups

Recreation Grazing

Rangeland Administration System, BLM Website, BLM State Office

Grazing DependenceComparing grazing intensity across Field Offices

• 10 BLM Field Offices in CO• AUM = Animal Unit Months

• Livestock #, % Public Land Grazed, # days

Tukey’s HSD Results

Red = P < 0.05

Land Ownership and Forage Dependence

Special Recreation and Event Permits

Kremmling CO River Valley Tres Rios Gunnison White River Uncompahgre Little Snake Royal Gorge Grand Junction San Luis Valley0

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Rec. Permits Event Permits

Field Office

Spec

ial R

ecre

ation

Per

mits

and

Eve

nt P

erm

its

Special Recreation and Event Permit Dependence

Implications and Next Steps

Conduct Case Studies

Refine GIS Analysis

Circulate for Feedback

Setting the Stage

Quantitative Qualitative

Questions, Comments?

Thank you!!