pulse asia january 2016 pre election survey

MEDIA RELEASE (February 6, 2016)

FROM: Ronald D. Holmes President Pulse Asia Research, Inc.

RE: Pulse Asia Research’s January 2016 Nationwide Survey on the Presidential, Vice-Presidential, and Senatorial Preferences of Filipinos for the May 2016 Elections

Pulse Asia Research, Inc. is pleased to share with you some findings on the Presidential, Vice-Presidential, and Senatorial Preferences of Filipinos for the May 2016 Elections from the January 2016 Pulso ng Bayan Pre-Electoral national survey. We request you to assist us in informing the public by disseminating this information.

The survey fieldwork was conducted from January 24 – 28, 2016 using face-to-face interviews. In the weeks leading up to the fieldwork for this survey and during the actual conduct of the interviews, the following local and international developments dominated the headlines:

In the month of January 2016, the following news developments were among those which preoccupied Filipinos:

1. The start of the official election period on 10 January 2016 which saw, amongothers, the imposition of a gun ban prohibiting the bearing, carrying, ortransporting of firearms and other deadly weapons, both licensed andunlicensed, with only selected government officials and law enforcers beinggiven exemptions;

2. The delay in the printing of ballots for the May 2016 elections to 08 February2016; the Commission on Elections (COMELEC) had originally scheduled thestart of ballot-printing on 26 January 2016 but moved it first to 01 February2016, and again to 08 February 2016; the delay is due in part to the pendingdisqualification cases which have been filed against several candidates,among whom are Senator Grace Poe and Davao City Mayor Rodrigo R.Duterte who are both running for president;

3. The ongoing oral arguments before the Supreme Court (SC) concerning thetwo (2) cases questioning the ruling of the COMELEC disqualifying SenatorPoe from the May 2016 presidential elections on the grounds that she is not anatural-born Filipino and has not met the 10-year residency requirement; theHigh Court had earlier upheld, through a 12-3 vote, the temporary restrainingorder (TRO) issued by Supreme Court Chief Justice Maria Lourdes A. Serenoon 28 December 2015, while the court was in holiday recess, preventing thedisqualification of Senator Poe from the May 2016 elections;

4. The word war between COMELEC Chairperson Andres Bautista and COMELEC Commissioner Rowena Guanzon arising from the latter’s submission to the SC of a comment of the disqualification case against Senator Poe without the concurrence of the other COMELEC commissioners;

5. The reopening of the Senate inquiry into the so-called Mamasapanoencounter, with Senator Juan Ponce Enrile calling on President Benigno S.Aquino III to appear before the legislative body to address lingering questionsconcerning his alleged involvement in the planning and preparation for“Oplan Exodus”; following the hearing, Senator Poe, who chairs the SenateCommittee on Public Order which investigated the matter, said she saw noneed to alter the original committee report which found the President“ultimately responsible” for the loss of lives during the operation;

6. On the occasion of the first anniversary of the Mamasapano encounter,President Aquino posthumously conferred the Medal of Valor and theDistinguished Conduct Medal to the 44 members of the Philippine NationalPolice-Special Action Force (PNP-SAF) who lost their lives on 25 January 2015during the “Oplan Exodus” operation;

7. The conclusion of the Senate Blue Ribbon sub-committee’s investigation intothe allegations of corruption against Vice-President Jejomar C. Binay after 25hearings dating back to 20 August 2014; Senator Antonio Trillanes IV, one ofthose who led the hearings, lamented the fact that the Vice-President neverappeared before the sub-committee to explain his side on the matter; the campof Vice-President Binay maintained that the hearings have all been about“baseless” allegations with the witnesses presented by his accusers failing topresent credible evidence against him;

8. President Aquino’s veto of House Bill 5842 which seeks to extend an increaseof P 2,000 pesos in the monthly pension of Social Security System (SSS)members; the President explained that while his administration understandsthe goal of the legislative measure, approving it in its present form would haveadverse consequences for the financial viability of the SSS as it would mean a“substantial negative income” for the agency; following President Aquino’sveto, Bayan Muna Representative Neri J. Colmenares called on his colleaguesat the House of Representatives to override the presidential veto;

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9. The decision of the Supreme Court, through a vote of 10-4, to uphold theconstitutionality of the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA)between the Philippines and the United States (US); the High Court also saidthat the EDCA does not require ratification by the Senate as it is an executiveagreement and not a treaty; while the Philippine and US governmentswelcome the decision, Bagong Alyansang Makabayan, one of the petitioners,said it plans to file a motion for reconsideration before the SC;

10. The Philippines’ filing of a diplomatic protest against China’s conduct of testflights to Kagitingan Reef on 02 January 2016, an act which the Department ofForeign Affairs (DFA) said violated the informal code of conduct for countrieswith claims over disputed territories in the South China Sea; the Chinesegovernment immediately rejected the diplomatic protest as it asserted its rightto fly over the South China Sea;

11. The appointment of Department of Justice (DOJ) Secretary Alfredo BenjaminCaguiao as the latest member of the High Court following the retirement ofSC Associate Justice Martin Villarama, Jr. and of Department of Trade andIndustry (DTI) Undersecretary Adrian S. Cristobal, Jr. as the new DTISecretary; the resignation of National Economic and Development Authority(NEDA) Director General Arsenio M. Balisacan following his appointment asthe first Chairperson of the Philippine Competition Commission; the askingof Bureau of Immigration (BI) Commissioner Siegfred Mison over the reportedescapes of a South Korean detained at the BI and the appointment of Atty.Ronaldo Geron, Jr. as his replacement; the appointment of LandTransportation Franchising and Regulatory Board (LTFRB) Executive DirectorRoberto Cabrera as the replacement of Land Transportation Office (LTO)Chief Alfonso Tan, Jr.; the removal from office of five retired generals and twoother former military officers as district collectors of the Bureau of Customs,amidst talks that the replacement of these collectors is “election-related”;

12. The arrest on drug charges of Lt. Col. Ferdinand Marcelino, a former head ofthe Special Enforcement Service of the Philippine Drug Enforcement Agency(PDEA), during a raid carried out by drug enforcement agents in Manila on21 January 2016; the latter claimed that he was on an undercover operation forthe Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) when he was arrested; the AFP hasrequested custody over Lt. Col. Marcelino since he is an active military officerand should, therefore, be confined in a military-controlled facility while beinginvestigated for allegedly violating the Comprehensive Dangerous Drugs Actof 2002;

13. The arrest on libel charges of former Iglesia ni Cristo (INC) Minister LowellMenorca II on his way to the Court of Appeals (CA) for a hearing regardinghis petition for lifetime protection against the religious group which he hasaccused of abducting him last year; former DOJ Secretary Leila M. de Limacalled on the PNP to investigate the so-called “irregular manner” by which

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the arrest of the ex-INC Minister was carried out by police officers, one of whom turned out to be an INC member;

14. Reports of injuries and deaths due to the use of fireworks and the illegal firingof guns amidst the New Year’s celebrations across the country and the deathof two (2) devotees during the annual procession marking the Feast of theBlack Nazarene on 09 January 2016 in Manila City;

15. In international developments, the decision of Saudi Arabia to cut diplomaticties with Iran in the aftermath of the 02 January 2016 attack on its embassy inTehran amidst demonstrations against the execution of 47 people accused ofterrorism and the series of explosions in Jakarta, Indonesia on 14 January 2016,reportedly carried out by the Islamic State (IS), which resulted in the death ofeight (8) individuals, including four (4) suspects; and

16. In economic-related news, the depreciation of the local currency vis-a-vis theAmerican dollar as it breached the P 48:US$1 mark; the 50-centavo reductionin jeepney fare as a result of the continued decline in the prices of diesel andother oil products; the lower power rates charged by the Manila Electric Co.(Meralco) as a result of lower generation charges; and the failure of the BOCto meets its 2015 target of P 436.5B in revenues as it was able to collect only P369.9 B last year.

Based on a multistage probability sample of 1,800 registered voters 18 years old and above, Pulse Asia’s nationwide survey has a ± 2% error margin at the 95% confidence level. Subnational estimates for the geographic areas covered in the survey have the following error margins at 95% confidence level: ± 6% for Metro Manila, ± 3% for the rest of Luzon and ± 5% for each of Visayas and Mindanao. Those interested in further technical details concerning the survey's questionnaire and sampling design may request Pulse Asia Research in writing for fuller details.

Pulse Asia Research’s pool of academic fellows takes full responsibility for the design and conduct of the survey, as well as for analyses it makes based on the survey data. In keeping with our academic nature, no religious, political, economic, or partisan group influenced any of these processes. Pulse Asia Research undertakes pre-election surveys on its own without any party singularly commissioning the research effort.

For any clarification or questions, kindly contact Dr. Ana Maria Tabunda, Research Director of Pulse Asia Research, at 09189436816 or Prof. Ronald D. Holmes, Pulse Asia Research President, at 09189335497 or via email ([email protected]).

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Pulso ng Bayan Pre-Electoral Survey: Media Release on the Presidential, Vice-Presidential, and

Senatorial Preferences of Filipinos for the May 2016 Elections

Senator Grace Poe regains the top spot in the May 2016 presidential elections; three other presidential bets share second place

Amidst the still unresolved questions concerning her alleged failure to meet the residency and citizenship requirements for presidential candidates, Senator Grace Poe once again lands in first place in the presidential race. In January 2016, 30% of Filipino registered voters with biometrics would elect the latter to the presidency if the May 2016 elections were held at that time. This overall voter preference puts the lawmaker ahead of Vice-President Jejomar C. Binay (23%), former Department of Interior and Local Government (DILG) Secretary Manuel A. Roxas II (20%), and Davao City Mayor Rodrigo R. Duterte (20%). Four (4) other presidential candidates have voter preferences of at most 4%. Only 3% of registered voters are not inclined to vote for any of these presidential candidates1. (Please refer to Table 1.)

1 The names included in the list are based on the COMELEC list of candidates posted on its website last 20 January 2016 17:48:56.

January 24 - 28, 2016 / Philippines

Of the people on this list, whom would youvote for as PRESIDENT OF THE PHILIPPINESif the 2016 elections were held today andthey were candidates?

POE, GRACE IND 30 33 39 26 16 25 32 26BINAY, JOJO UNA 23 32 28 20 14 21 22 30ROXAS, MAR DAANG MATUWID LP 20 11 16 32 21 20 19 25DUTERTE, RODY PDPLBN 20 16 8 15 48 24 21 15

DEFENSOR SANTIAGO, MIRIAM PRP 4 6 4 4 1 7 4 1MENDOZA, MEL PMP 0.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0SEÑERES, ROY WPPPMM 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0VALENCIA, DANTE IND 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Don’t know/Refused/None 3 2 4 3 1 4 3 2Don’t know 1 1 2 0 0 1 1 1Refused 0.4 0 1 0 0 1 0 1None 1 0 1 2 0 2 1 1

Note: Based on COMELEC certified list of candidates as of 2016-01-20 17:48:56

Q6. Sa mga taong nasa listahang ito, sino ang inyong iboboto bilang PRESIDENTE NG PILIPINAS kung ang eleksyon ng 2016 ay gaganapin ngayon at sila ay mga kandidato? (ONE ANSWER ONLY)

MIN ABC D E

Table 12016 ELECTIONS: PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCE

(In Percent)

Base: Registered voters with biometrics

RP

LOCATION CLASS

NCR BL VIS

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Across geographic areas and socio-economic classes, Senator Poe leads in the rest of Luzon (39%) and Class D (32%). Meanwhile, almost half of Mindanaoans (48%) support the candidacy of Davao City Mayor Duterte. In Metro Manila, Senator Poe and Vice-President Binay share the lead (33% versus 32%) while in the Visayas, the top candidates for president are former DILG Secretary Roxas (32%) and Senator Poe (26%). In Class ABC, almost the same voter preferences are recorded by Senator Poe (25%), Davao City Mayor Duterte (24%), Vice-President Binay (21%), and former DILG Secretary Roxas (20%). As for those in Class E, their most preferred candidates are Vice-President Binay (30%), Senator Poe (26%), and former DILG Secretary Roxas (25%).

Only Senator Poe and Vice-President Binay experience marked movements in their presidential voter preferences between December 2015 and January 2016

Electoral support for Senator Poe becomes more pronounced (+9 percentage points) while that for Vice-President Binay eases (-10 percentage points) during the period December 2015 to January 2016. Senator Poe enjoys gains in voter preference in the rest of Luzon (+10 percentage points), the Visayas (+11 percentage points), and Class D (+10 percentage points). As for Vice-President Binay, levels of support for his candidacy decline in the Visayas (-14 percentage points), Mindanao (-16 percentage points), and Class E (-12 percentage points). There are no marked movements in the voter preferences of former DILG Secretary Roxas, Davao City Mayor Duterte, and Senator Miriam Defensor-Santiago at this time. (Please refer to Table 2.)

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Senator Francis Escudero continues to lead in the vice-presidential race; three other vice-presidential bets have double-digit voter preferences; electoral support for these candidates remains constant between December 2015 and January 2016

Filipino registered voters’ top choice for vice-president is Senator Francis Escudero (33%). In second place is Senator Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. (23%) while Camarines Sur Representative Maria Leonor G. Robredo and Senator Alan Peter S. Cayetano share third place (18% and 14%, respectively). Two other candidates post single-digit voter preferences – Senator Gregorio Honasan (5%) and Senator Antonio Trillanes IV (4%)2. The rest of Filipino registered voters (3%) do not have any preferred candidate for vice-president (Please refer to Table 3.)

2 The names included in the list are based on the COMELEC list of candidates posted on its website last 20 January 2016 17:50:04.

December 2015 and January 2016 / Philippines

Of the people on this list, whom would youvote for as PRESIDENT OF THE PHILIPPINESif the 2016 elections were held today andthey were candidates?

POE, GRACE IND Jan '16b 30 33 39 26 16 25 32 26Dec'15c 21 21 29 15 11 19 22 19Changea + 9 +12 +10 +11 + 5 + 6 +10 + 7

BINAY, JOJO UNA Jan '16b 23 32 28 20 14 21 22 30Dec'15c 33 30 34 34 30 20 30 42Changea - 10 + 2 - 6 - 14 - 16 + 1 - 8 - 12

ROXAS, MAR DAANG MATUWID LP Jan '16b 20 11 16 32 21 20 19 25Dec'15c 17 11 16 27 13 22 17 15Changea + 3 0 0 + 5 + 8 - 2 + 2 +10

DUTERTE, RODY PDPLBN Jan '16b 20 16 8 15 48 24 21 15Dec'15c 23 27 13 18 43 28 23 20Changea - 3 - 11 - 5 - 3 + 5 - 4 - 2 - 5

DEFENSOR SANTIAGO, MIRIAM PRP Jan '16b 4 6 4 4 1 7 4 1Dec'15c 4 10 5 4 1 9 5 2Changea 0 - 4 - 1 0 0 - 2 - 1 - 1

Don't know/Refused/None Jan '16b 3 2 4 3 1 4 3 2Dec'15c 2 0 3 3 1 2 2 1Changea + 1 + 2 + 1 0 0 + 2 + 1 + 1

Notes: (1) Other presidential candidates listed are M ENDOZA, M EL (PM P), SEÑERES ROY (WPPPM M ) AND VALENCIA DANTE (IND) who each got less than 1% of votes. (2) aChange = Figures of January 2016 minus Figures of December 2015. (3) bBase for PB January 2016 = Registered voters with biometrics (4) cBase for UB December 2015 = Registered Voters

ABC D E

Table 2COMPARATIVE PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCE

(In Percent)

RP

LOCATION CLASS

NCR BL VIS MIN

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In the different geographic areas and socio-economic classes, Senator Escudero has the lead in the rest of Luzon (37%) and Classes D and E (both at 34%). Metro Manilans are most inclined to vote for either Senator Marcos (36%) or Senator Escudero (33%). In the Visayas, the lead is shared by Senator Escudero (32%) and Camarines Sur Representative Robredo (25%) while in Mindanao, the top candidates are Senator Escudero (29%) and Senator Cayetano (22%). As for those in Class ABC, their most favored vice-presidential bets are Senator Marcos (28%), Senator Escudero (24%), Camarines Sur Representative Robredo (21%), and Senator Cayetano (17%).

Levels of support for these six vice-presidential candidates do not move significantly during the period December 2015 to January 2016. This observation holds true at the national level and across geographic areas and socio-economic groupings. (Please refer to Table 4.)


Of the people on this list, whom would youvote for as VICE-PRESIDENT OF THE PHILIPPINESif the 2016 elections were held today and they were candidates?

ESCUDERO, CHIZ IND 33 33 37 32 29 24 34 34MARCOS, BONGBONG IND 23 36 26 13 19 28 23 20ROBREDO, LENI DAANG MATUWID LP 18 11 16 25 19 21 18 16

CAYETANO, ALAN PETER IND 14 10 10 16 22 17 13 16HONASAN, GRINGO UNA 5 5 5 6 3 2 5 7TRILLANES, ANTONIO IV IND 4 4 3 5 6 4 4 4

Don't know/Refused/None 3 0 3 5 3 4 3 5Don't know 1 0 2 1 2 2 1 2Refused 0.3 0 0 1 0 1 0 1None 2 0 1 3 1 1 2 2

Note: Based on COM ELEC certified list of candidates as of 2016-01-20 17:50:04

Q23. Sa mga taong nasa listahang ito, sino ang inyong iboboto bilang BISE-PRESIDENTE NG PILIPINAS kung ang eleksyon ng 2016 ay gaganapin ngayon at sila ay mga kandidato? (ONE ANSWER ONLY)

MIN ABC D E

Table 32016 ELECTIONS: VICE-PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCE

(In Percent)


RP

LOCATION CLASS

NCR BL VIS

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On average, Filipinos have 10 preferred candidates for the Senate while more than half (56%) already have a complete senatorial slate; 13 out of 52 senatorial bets have a statistical chance of winning in May 2016

Filipinos are naming a mean of 10 and a median of 12 (out of a maximum of 12) of their favored senatorial bets in the May 2016 elections. Across geographic areas and socio-economic classes, mean figures range from nine (9) to 10 while median figures vary from 11 to 12. On the whole, 56% of registered voters have already chosen 12 senatorial candidates. Majorities in most geographic areas (61% to 63%) and socio-economic classes (56% to 61%) already have a complete slate for the May 2016 senatorial elections. The exceptions are the rest of Luzon (49%) and Class ABC (50%). (Please refer to Table 5.)

December 2015 and January 2016 / Philippines

Of the people on this list, whom would youvote for as VICE-PRESIDENT OF THE PHILIPPINESif the 2016 elections were held today and they were candidates?

ESCUDERO, CHIZ IND Jan '16b 33 33 37 32 29 24 34 34Dec '15c 29 30 33 27 21 26 29 29Changea + 4 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 8 - 2 + 5 + 5

MARCOS, BONGBONG IND Jan '16b 23 36 26 13 19 28 23 20Dec '15c 23 28 26 17 19 20 23 20Changea 0 + 8 0 - 4 0 + 8 0 0

ROBREDO, LENI DAANG MATUWID LP Jan '16b 18 11 16 25 19 21 18 16Dec '15c 14 9 14 21 10 18 14 12Changea + 4 + 2 + 2 + 4 + 9 + 3 + 4 + 4

CAYETANO, ALAN PETER IND Jan '16b 14 10 10 16 22 17 13 16Dec '15c 18 17 13 18 27 17 18 18Changea - 4 - 7 - 3 - 2 - 5 0 - 5 - 2

HONASAN, GRINGO UNA Jan '16b 5 5 5 6 3 2 5 7Dec '15c 9 12 8 8 12 11 8 12Changea - 4 - 7 - 3 - 2 - 9 - 9 - 3 - 5

TRILLANES, ANTONIO IV IND Jan '16b 4 4 3 5 6 4 4 4Dec '15c 4 4 3 5 5 5 4 4Changea 0 0 0 0 + 1 - 1 0 0

Don't know/Refused/None Jan '16b 3 0 3 5 3 4 3 5Dec '15c 3 0 3 3 3 2 3 2Changea 0 0 0 + 2 0 + 2 0 + 3

Notes: (1) aChange = Figures of January 2016 minus Figures of December 2015. (2) b Base for PB January 2016 = Registered voters with biometrics (3) c Base for UB December 2015 = Registered Voters

ABC D E

Table 4COMPARATIVE VICE-PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCE

(In Percent)

RP

LOCATION CLASS

NCR BL VIS MIN

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Of the 52 senatorial candidates3 included in the electoral probe, 13 have a statistical chance of winning if the May 2016 elections were held at the time of the conduct of this survey. With the exception of former Department of Justice (DOJ) Secretary Leila M. de Lima, all of these probable winners are either former or incumbent members of Congress. Sharing the top two spots are Senator Vicente Sotto III (68.8%, 1st to 2nd places) and former Senator Francis Pangilinan (65.6%, 1st to 3rd

places). (Please refer to Table 6.)

The other probable winners are former Senator Panfilo M. Lacson (63.3%, 2nd to 5th places), Senator Ralph Recto (59.9%, 3rd to 5th places), Senate President Franklin M. Drilon (58.8%, 3rd to 7th places), former Senator Juan Miguel Zubiri (54.9%, 5th to 7th places), Senator Sergio R. Osmeña III (54.8%, 5th to 7th places), former Senator Richard Gordon (48.6%, 8th to 10th places), former DOJ Secretary de Lima (48.2%, 8th to 10th places), Saranggani Representative Emmanuel Pacquiao (46.9%, 8th to 10th places), Senator Teofisto Guingona III (41.4%, 11th to 13th places), former Akbayan Party List Representative Risa Hontiveros (41.1%, 11th to 13th places), and

3 The list is based on the roster of Senatorial candidates included in the COMELEC website as of 20 January 2016 18:35:37.


SENATORIAL FILL-UP RATES

MEAN 10 10 9 10 10 9 10 10MEDIAN 12 12 11 12 12 11 12 12

NUMBER OF SENATORIAL PREFERENCES0 1 0 1 3 1 1 1 11 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 22 1 2 2 0 1 1 1 13 3 3 4 1 2 3 3 24 4 3 6 2 1 8 4 25 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 56 4 6 4 4 3 4 4 47 6 5 7 6 6 9 6 68 5 5 6 6 3 7 5 49 6 6 7 5 5 4 6 510 5 1 6 4 7 2 5 711 2 1 2 3 3 5 3 112 56 62 49 61 63 50 56 61

Table 52016 ELECTIONS: SENATORIAL FILL-UP RATES AND

NUMBER OF SENATORIAL PREFERENCES

(In Percent)


RP

LOCATION CLASS

NCR BL VIS MIN ABC D E

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Valenzuela City Representative Sherwin T. Gatchalian (37.7%, 11th to 13th places). Only 1.1% of registered voters do not support any of the candidates included in this electoral probe.

Table 62016 ELECTIONS: SENATORIAL PREFERENCES

January 24 - 28, 2016 / Philippines(Multiple Responses, up to 12 names allowed)

SOTTO, VICENTE NPC 96 68.8 1-2PANGILINAN, KIKO LP 96 65.6 1-3LACSON, PANFILO IND 96 63.3 2-5RECTO, RALPH LP 94 59.9 3-5DRILON, FRANK LP 96 58.8 3-7

ZUBIRI, MIGZ IND 95 54.9 5-7OSMEÑA , SERGIO Ill IND 94 54.8 5-7GORDON, DICK IND 92 48.6 8-10DE LIMA, LEILA LP 94 48.2 8-10PACQUIAO, MANNY UNA 97 46.9 8-10

GUINGONA, TG LP 88 41.4 11-13HONTIVEROS, RISA AKBYN 85 41.1 11-13GATCHALIAN, WIN NPC 76 37.7 11-13VILLANUEVA , JOEL TESDAMAN LP 80 31.1 14-15LAPID, MARK AKSYON 86 27.2 14-18

DOMAGOSO, ISKO MORENO PMP 88 24.5 15-18MANZANO, EDU IND 94 24.5 15-18TOLENTINO, FRANCIS IND 82 23.7 15-18ROMUALDEZ , MARTIN LAKAS 66 19.1 19-20COLMENARES, NERI MKBYN 65 17.8 19-20

LACSAMANA, ALMA MORENO UNA 87 11.8 21-22OPLE, SUSAN NP 30 9.1 21-27AQUINO, TONYBOY IND 21 8.6 22-27CHAVEZ, MEL WPPPMM 18 7.5 22-30PETILLA, CARLOS JERICHO LP 44 7.4 22-30


Q30. Kung ang eleksyon ng 2016 ay isasagawa ngayon, sinu-sino sa mga sumusunod na personalidad ang inyong iboboto kung sakaling sila ay kakandidato sa pagka-SENADOR? Puwede kayong pumili ng hanggang 12 pangalan.Q31. May narinig, nabasa o napanood na ba kayong kahit na ano tungkol sa mga sumusunod o wala pa? (SHUFFLE CARDS)

page 1 of 2


Aware Voting for Rank

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Table 62016 ELECTIONS: SENATORIAL PREFERENCES

January 24 - 28, 2016 / Philippines(Multiple Responses, up to 12 names allowed)

ROMULO, ROMAN IND 33 7.4 22-30LANGIT, REY UNA 63 7.0 22-30MONTANO, ALLAN UNA 20 5.8 24-31KAPUNAN, ATTY.LORNA AKSYON 34 5.7 24-31SANTIAGO, DIONISIO IND 12 5.7 24-31

PALPARAN, JOVITO JR. IND 37 4.2 28-33MAGANTO, ROMEO LAKAS 18 3.0 31-39KIRAM, PRINCESS JACEL UNA 7 2.6 31-41NAPEÑAS, GETULIO UNA 21 2.5 32-41ALUNAN, RAFFY IND 12 2.5 32-41

GADON, LARRY KBL 7 2.4 32-41RODRIGUEZ , ROGER IND 9 2.3 32-42AMBOLODTO , INA LP 4 2.1 32-43MONTAÑO, MON IND 11 1.6 32-49PAGDILAO, SAMUEL IND 15 1.4 33-51

CAM, SANDRA PMP 9 1.3 33-52LIBAN, DANTE IND 11 1.1 37-52CATMON, JOEL PGRP 3 0.9 38-52KABALU, EID IND 6 0.9 39-52BELLO, WALDEN IND 7 0.9 39-52

BALIGOD, LEVITO IND 5 0.8 39-52OROZCO, EMMA IND 3 0.7 39-52ARQUIZA, GODOFREDO IND 4 0.7 39-52BELGICA, GRECO IND 6 0.6 39-52JAAFAR , PRINCESS ANGEL IND 3 0.6 40-52

LAGARE, MR. JUROR IND 3 0.5 40-52PAEZ, MR. COOP IND 3 0.4 41-52

Don’t know --- 0.3 ---Refused --- 0.2 ---None --- 0.6 ---


Q30. Kung ang eleksyon ng 2016 ay isasagawa ngayon, sinu-sino sa mga sumusunod na personalidad ang inyong iboboto kung sakaling sila ay kakandidato sa pagka-SENADOR? Puwede kayong pumili ng hanggang 12 pangalan.Q31. May narinig, nabasa o napanood na ba kayong kahit na ano tungkol sa mga sumusunod o wala pa? (SHUFFLE CARDS)

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Aware Voting for Rank

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Only five (5) of the probable winners in the May 2016 senatorial race experience movements in their voter preferences between December 2015 and January 2016 Among those with a statistical chance of winning a senatorial seat in May 2016, only five (5) experience significant changes – positive or negative – in their senatorial voter preferences between December 2015 and January 2016. Electoral support for four (4) of them becomes more manifest – Senator Osmeña (+5 percentage points), former Akbayan Party List Representative Hontiveros (+5.4 percentage points), Saranggani Representative Pacquiao (+6.9 percentage points), and former Senator Pangilinan (+11.1 percentage points). On the other hand, voter preference for former Senator Gordon eases during this period (-8.4 percentage points). (Please refer to Table 7.)

As for those who are not yet making it to the winners’ circle, three (3) of them enjoy gains in electoral support between December 2015 and January 2016 – Manila City Vice-Mayor Francisco Domagoso (+5.3 percentage points), former Tourism Infrastructure and Enterprise Zone Authority (TIEZA) Chief Operating Officer (COO) Mark T. Lapid (+6.3 percentage points), and Bayan Muna Party List Representative Neri J. Colmenares (+7.5 percentage points).

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Table 7COMPARATIVE SENATORIAL PREFERENCES

December 2015 and January 2016 / Philippines(Multiple Responses, up to 12 names allowed)

Page 1 of 2

Dec Jan Dec Jan'15 '16 '15 '16

[No. of names listed]

SOTTO, VICENTE NPC 67.9 68.8 +0.9 1 1-2PANGILINAN, KIKO LP 54.5 65.6 +11.1 2-8 1-3LACSON, PANFILO IND 58.5 63.3 +4.8 2-7 2-5RECTO, RALPH LP 58.9 59.9 +1.0 2-7 3-5DRILON, FRANK LP 55.1 58.8 +3.7 2-7 3-7

ZUBIRI, MIGZ IND 55.9 54.9 -1.0 2-7 5-7OSMEÑA , SERGIO Ill IND 49.8 54.8 +5.0 7-9 5-7GORDON, DICK IND 57.0 48.6 -8.4 2-7 8-10DE LIMA, LEILA LP 46.8 48.2 +1.4 8-9 8-10PACQUIAO, MANNY UNA 40.0 46.9 +6.9 10-13 8-10

GUINGONA, TG LP 38.6 41.4 +2.8 10-13 11-13HONTIVEROS, RISA AKBYN 35.7 41.1 +5.4 10-13 11-13GATCHALIAN, WIN NPC 36.0 37.7 +1.7 10-13 11-13VILLANUEVA , JOEL TESDAMAN LP 29.4 31.1 +1.7 14 14-15LAPID, MARK AKSYON 20.9 27.2 +6.3 15-19 14-18

DOMAGOSO, ISKO MORENO PMP 19.2 24.5 +5.3 16-20 15-18MANZANO, EDU IND 22.4 24.5 +2.1 15-19 15-18TOLENTINO, FRANCIS IND 23.5 23.7 +0.2 15-18 15-18ROMUALDEZ , MARTIN LAKAS 21.6 19.1 -2.5 15-19 19-20COLMENARES, NERI MKBYN 10.3 17.8 +7.5 21-24 19-20

LACSAMANA, ALMA MORENO UNA 11.4 11.8 +0.4 21-23 21-22OPLE, SUSAN NP 8.0 9.1 +1.1 22-28 21-27AQUINO, TONYBOY IND 7.0 8.6 +1.6 23-28 22-27CHAVEZ, MEL WPPPMM 6.4 7.5 +1.1 24-32 22-30PETILLA, CARLOS JERICHO LP 9.6 7.4 -2.2 21-25 22-30


minusDec15

[89] [52]

Senatorial Preferences Voting For (%) Changea RankUBc PBb Jan16 UBc PBb

14 of 15

Table 7COMPARATIVE SENATORIAL PREFERENCES

December 2015 and January 2016 / Philippines(Multiple Responses, up to 12 names allowed)

Page 2 of 2

Dec Jan Dec Jan'15 '16 '15 '16

[No. of names listed]

ROMULO, ROMAN IND 6.5 7.4 +0.9 24-32 22-30LANGIT, REY UNA 6.1 7.0 +0.9 24-32 22-30MONTANO, ALLAN UNA 3.6 5.8 +2.2 29-39 24-31KAPUNAN, ATTY.LORNA AKSYON 4.7 5.7 +1.0 26-34 24-31SANTIAGO, DIONISIO IND 4.6 5.7 +1.1 26-34 24-31

PALPARAN, JOVITO JR. IND 4.6 4.2 -0.4 26-34 28-33MAGANTO, ROMEO LAKAS 2.5 3.0 +0.5 33-49 31-39KIRAM, PRINCESS JACEL UNA 1.7 2.6 +0.9 35-68 31-41NAPEÑAS, GETULIO UNA 2.5 2.5 0 33-49 32-41ALUNAN, RAFFY IND 4.0 2.5 -1.5 29-39 32-41

GADON, LARRY KBL 1.0 2.4 +1.4 40-85 32-41RODRIGUEZ , ROGER IND --- 2.3 --- --- 32-42AMBOLODTO , INA LP 1.2 2.1 +0.9 39-81 32-43MONTAÑO, MON IND 2.7 1.6 -1.1 33-47 32-49PAGDILAO, SAMUEL IND 1.5 1.4 -0.1 35-70 33-51

CAM, SANDRA PMP 1.1 1.3 +0.2 40-84 33-52LIBAN, DANTE IND 1.3 1.1 -0.2 38-77 37-52CATMON, JOEL PGRP 0.7 0.9 +0.2 43-89 38-52KABALU, EID IND --- 0.9 --- --- 39-52BELLO, WALDEN IND 2.7 0.9 -1.8 33-47 39-52

BALIGOD, LEVITO IND 0.6 0.8 +0.2 47-89 39-52OROZCO, EMMA IND 0.7 0.7 0 41-89 39-52ARQUIZA, GODOFREDO IND 0.9 0.7 -0.2 40-88 39-52BELGICA, GRECO IND 1.5 0.6 -0.9 35-70 39-52JAAFAR , PRINCESS ANGEL IND --- 0.6 --- --- 40-52

LAGARE, MR. JUROR IND --- 0.5 --- --- 40-52PAEZ, MR. COOP IND 0.9 0.4 -0.5 40-88 41-52

Don't know 0.9 0.3 -0.6 -- --Refused 0.3 0.2 -0.1 -- --None 1.1 0.6 -0.5 -- --


minusDec15

[89] [52]

Senatorial Preferences Voting For (%) Changea RankUBc PBb Jan16 UBc PBb

15 of 15

pulse asia january 2016 pre election survey

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