Putting a finger on urban

Yves Bourgeois, PhDDirector, Urban and community studies institute

University of New Brunswick

Saint John, 3 October 2013

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1983

2013

PIB / hab $ cour rang PIB / hab $ cour rang

Suisse 16420 1 80473 3

USA 15089 2 51248 9

Norvège 14701 3 105478 2

Canada 13175 4 52364 7

Luxembourg 12309 5 112135 1

Suède 11648 6 60020 6

Danemark 11571 7 58668 5

Australie 11553 8 64156 4

Islande 11430 9 44120

Finlande 10335 10 48707

Autriche 9311 49255 10

Singapour 6564 52179 8

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Is this a village, town or city ?

Main argument

Never take scale for granted in your research or projects.

Existing boundaries may be the wrong scale in understanding the problem or finding solutions.

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1. Urban vs rural… a false dichotomy Is NB a rural province ? In 2011, 47% of NB’s population lived in rural

areas (<1000; <400 sqkm)

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The idyllic nirvana of rural NB ?

No, rural growth in NB occurred as employment shifted to post-industrial economy

Population, urban and rural, by province and territory (New Brunswick)

Population Urban Rural Employment %% % Ag Fish Forest PSTS Health

N.B.1851 193,800 14 861861 252,047 13 871871 285,594 18 821881 321,233 18 821891 321,263 15 851901 331,120 23 771911 351,889 28 721921 387,876 32 681931 408,219 32 681941 457,401 31 691951 515,697 42 581956 554,616 46 541961 597,936 46 54 7.0 2.1 5.9 0.7 5.31966 616,788 51 491971 634,560 57 43 3.0 1.1 3.0 1.4 6.11976 677,250 52 481981 696,403 51 49 2.3 x x 1.9 8.21986 709,445 49 511991 723,900 48 52 2.0 1.5 1.6 2.7 10.91996 738,133 49 512001 729,498 50 50 1.8 0.9 2.0 3.7 11.42006 729,997 51 492011 751,171 53 48 1.6 0.9 1.1 4.3 13.3

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What is really at play in NB is that urban-(post)industrial growth has been extending onto suburbs and countryside

Saint John’s population has been in decline, but CMA steady

…Quispamsis tripled in size 1981-2011

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• NB has been urbanizing 100 years +

• NBers have been following jobs (Mass, TO, Alberta)

• Low density communities are being urbanized from within

• While 53% urban where they sleep, but 63% in 8 cities (MIZs)

• Work and play (?)http://users.humboldt.edu/mstephens/hate/hate_map.html#

Why should I care ? (Will this be on the exam?)

Where do we locate schools, hospitals, arenas? Who pays for amenities and roads to get there?

Free riders? (water treatment? roads? aquatic centre?) …funding formula

We underinvest in amenity quality and overinvest on quantity and roads

Tim’s, McDonald’s, Costco

Do municipal boundaries reflect optimal level of planning and provision? Finance & HR capacity

Regional service commissions (RSC) solution or another layer of government?

Real issue is connected vs remote (…MIZs)

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Results – Adoption Firms in rural areas use internet-based technologies significantly less

10Twitter

Linkedin

Website

Market research

Techno seek

marketing

Prospecting

Purchasing

Sales

Software downloads

Training

Recruit

Product updates

Employee collaborations

client feedback

52.4%

66.7%

93.7%

90.5%

84.1%

77.0%

65.1%

80.2%

38.1%

73.0%

51.6%

49.2%

58.7%

50.0%

43.7%

30.2%

39.6%

95.8%

77.4%

72.6%

64.9%

53.6%

68.5%

32.7%

60.1%

46.4%

33.3%

44.6%

33.9%

25.6%

20.3%

25.3%

77.9%

68.2%

58.9%

51.9%

41.9%

55.8%

23.3%

50.4%

39.5%

26.4%

43.4%

20.9%

20.2%

Rural

Urban

Metro

% of firms using internet-based technologies

2. Urban systems RSCs an attempt to create critical mass and better

plan and provide local services among connected communities, urban core and rural hinterland

When it comes to economic opportunities, scale can be global (not just markets, but networks)

DERN: where we fit in global production networks Export activities we want: http://www.gnb.ca/inb/en/index-e.html

Export activities we have…

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NB adds very little value to its exports

Top 12 exports by HS2 codes (2011) ($1000 Cdn)

NB Que

27 - Mineral Fuels, Mineral Oils, Bituminous Substances and Mineral Waxes 10688996.80 76 - Aluminum and Articles Thereof 7172960.53

03 - Fish, Crustaceans, Molluscs and Other Aquatic Invertebrates 648674.80 88 - Aircrafts and Spacecrafts 6445340.38

47 - Pulp of Wood and The Like; Waste and Scrap of Paper or Paperboard 587780.52 84 - Nuclear Reactors, Boilers, Machinery and Mechanical Appliances 5696133.23

48 - Paper, Paperboard and Articles Made From These Materials 558080.27 48 - Paper, Paperboard and Articles Made From These Materials 4808008.75

44 - Wood and Articles of Wood (Incl. Wood Charcoal) 367314.4427 - Mineral Fuels, Mineral Oils, Bituminous Substances and Mineral Waxes 3530309.52

31 - Fertilizers 319912.27 85 - Electrical or Electronic Machinery and Equipment 2873929.40

20 - Preparations of Vegetables, Fruit, Nuts or Other Parts of Plants 304569.09 26 - Ores, Slag and Ash 2447381.73

16 - Meat, Fish and Seafood Preparations 171773.61 74 - Copper and Articles Thereof 2422253.51

78 - Lead and Articles Thereof 169829.4387 - Motor Vehicles, Trailers, Bicycles, Motorcycles and Other Similar Vehicles 2250096.14

26 - Ores, Slag and Ash 157451.69 39 - Plastics and Articles Thereof 1793827.33

72 - Iron and Steel 101170.14 72 - Iron and Steel 1684099.06

07 - Edible Vegetables and Certain Roots and Tubers 67710.17 02 - Meat and Edible Meat Offal 1567309.6312

Sometimes biggers is better

NB small-town north vs bigger-city south debate disconnected from broader global reality

Canada’s demographic and economic growth driven by cities, and very large cities in particular. 2009-2012 CMAs 100-350k grew 2.1%, which is lower than for all of Canada 3.4%, and compared to 3.3% for 350-1M and 5.1% for cities 1M+

Global phenomenon Why? ISRN hypotheses… innovation

infrastructure? creative workers?

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Critical mass matters Small-city penalty? Immigration, air connections, VC

…are scale-dependent

NB individual CMAs don’t have much size (94-140k), but can borrow size off each other

Polycentric regions: NB, Sask, NC, Randstadt… No dominant centre can create duplication but

can also inhibit critical mass Kumbayah ? All’s fun til someone loses an xport NFPs are doing it, so why aren’t cities ?

Parochialism, tax base How do we plan economic infrastructure beyond

municipal boundaries? 5-yr Development grant

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Summary

Need to do a better job understanding how “urban-rural” connects how city-regions connect in urban system

Or we’ll keep fighting over shrinking pie

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