puzzle report march 2021… · 2021. 3. 2. · disney wonderful worlds by ludia app details •...
TRANSCRIPT
Competitive Research and Actionable Product Recommendations
PUZZLE REPORT
TABLE OF CONTENTS
MARCH
2021
IMPACT DRIVER 3
Custom Design Event Mini-Games Hammer Time, Surprise for Santa, and Movie Night in Township Product Insights
IMPACT ANALYSIS 8
Event Market Share Impact Most Impactful Custom Design Events
LEVEL DESIGN 11
New Level Designs
MARKET WATCH 13
Soft-Launch & Breakout Apps Notable Releases
APPENDIX 18
Township Release Schedule Endnotes L&G Puzzle Personas Premium Partnerships Puzzle Mechanics Taxonomy
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IMPACT DRIVERFeatures and events that boost revenue, retention, or downloads
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PUZZLE > EVENTS > CUSTOM DESIGN
Custom Design Event Mini-Games Hammer Time, Surprise for Santa, and Movie Night in Township
WoW = Week over week. Graph data is iOS, U.S. only. See the Appendix for a full release schedule.
Township
Dai
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3K
6K
9K
12K
15K
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$100K
$200K
$300K
$400K
$500K
10/14/20 10/28/20 11/11/20 11/25/20 12/9/20 12/23/20 1/6/21 1/20/21 2/3/21 2/17/21
Revenue Downloads
Hammer Time Surprise for Santa Movie Night
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Township's revenue grew an average of +32% WoW during the Hammer Time, Surprise for Santa, and Movie Night events, while downloads shrank an average of -1.4% WoW.
REVENUE ANALYSIS
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Feature Details • Mini-game tokens are awarded every 5 minutes in Surprise for Santa and every 20 minutes in Hammer
Time and Movie Night. • Players can also purchase tokens with primary currency. • Each token grants one mini-game attempt. • Completing a mini-game level awards event tickets. • Tickets are used to purchase custom decorations for an event room (1). • Purchased decorations fill a meter with rewards at milestones (2). • Completing the meter permanently unlocks the room.
Mini-Game Details1 • Movie Night and Hammer Time offer a match-3 mini-game (3 and video). • Match-3 levels include boosts and special abilities. • Players pick boosts for each level and can buy more boosts with primary currency during play (4). • When players run out of moves, they can spend primary currency to buy more (5).
• Surprise for Santa offers an action snowboarding mini-game (6 and video). • Players tap the screen to change lanes, jump over obstacles, and collect tickets and boosts. • Hitting an obstacle ends the mini-game unless players spend primary currency.
Additional Information • See the Hammer Time, Surprise for Santa, and Movie Night libraries for more images and videos. • View all custom design and mini-game impact drivers in our Wiki.
FEATURE TEARDOWN
A series of custom design events involve different mini-games that award tickets. Players spend tickets to decorate areas, and completed areas are permanently unlocked.
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Note: Footnotes have moved to the Appendix to provide more information about our sources and suggestions for further reading.
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Add deeper mechanics to mini-games to increase spend. Movie Night and Hammer Time provide unusually complex mini-game mechanics, complete with boosts and special abilities (1). These additional mechanics let Township offer purchasable boosts, creating another way to drive spend. Township achieves this depth by reusing gameplay from Playrix's other popular apps, Homescapes and Gardenscapes.
Mini-games based on other apps in your network serve as subtle cross-promotions. Playrix's decision to reskin gameplay from its other apps does more than just reduce costs—it can also be used to introduce new players to those apps. A light spender we interviewed said he had never played a custom design-focused app before but, after sampling the mechanic in the mini-game, would "most definitely" play other apps like it.2
Use other popular features to layer progressions onto mini-games. Mini-games, reskinned or not, are expensive to build. You can increase your mini-games' longevity and ensure a positive ROI by adding mini-progressions with meaningful final rewards.
The ability to permanently unlock completed rooms is highly motivating for Township players. In the words of one light-spending player, "If I'm gonna get something at the end, I'll bust my a**."3 While Township used custom design areas as the progression layer for its mini-games, other popular progression features could work, too—like mission passes, collections, or leveling features.
Keeping your players motivated with progressions and permanent rewards also increases your ability to influence their behavior. In this case, Township shows players what they'll lose if they give up during a level to take advantage of their loss aversion (2).4 Consider going one step further by offering accelerator purchases toward the end of an event.
PRODUCT INSIGHTS
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Note: Footnotes have moved to the Appendix to provide more information about our sources and suggestions for further reading.
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IMPACT ANALYSISInvestment and revenue trends for feature and event releases
Tracked puzzle apps: Angry Birds 2, Best Fiends, Bubble Witch 3 Saga, Candy Crush Jelly Saga, Candy Crush Saga, Candy Crush Soda Saga, Cookie Jam, Disney Emoji Blitz, Farm Heroes Saga, Fishdom, Gardenscapes, Gummy Drop!, Home Design Makeover, Homescapes, June's Journey, Lily's Garden, Lost Island: Blast Adventure, Matchington Mansion, Panda Pop!, Pet Rescue Saga, Solitaire Grand Harvest, Solitaire TriPeaks, Toon Blast, Toy Blast, and Wizard of Oz Magic Match
Tracked simulation apps: Animal Crossing: Pocket Camp, Cooking Fever, Cooking Madness-Kitchen Frenzy, Diner DASH Adventures, Disney Magic Kingdoms, FarmVille 2: Country Escape, Hay Day, Klondike Adventures, SimCity BuildIt, The Sims Mobile, and Township
Tracked lifestyle apps: Chapters: Interactive Stories, Choices: Stories You Play, Covet Fashion, Episode - Choose Your Story, Kim Kardashian: Hollywood, Love Nikki-Dress UP Queen, and My Story: Choose Your Own Path
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CUSTOM DESIGN EVENTS AVERAGE A LOW IMPACT
Despite being the most released event type in tracked casual apps, custom design events had the fourth smallest average impact on revenue market share WoW in the past 12 months.5
Impact models are made by Liquid & Grit by combining our data with revenue data from Sensor Tower. Only event types with 10 or more standalone releases are shown. WoW = Week over week.
Revenue Market Share WoW (Past 12 Months)
Competitions
Mini-Games
Collections
Missions
Quests
Challenges
Clubs
Levels
Custom Design
Purchases
Rewards
Accelerators
-6% 0% 6% 12%
Event Releases (Past 12 Months)
Competitions
Mini-Games
Collections
Missions
Quests
Challenges
Clubs
Levels
Custom Design
Purchases
Rewards
Accelerators
0 50 100 150 200
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TOWNSHIP'S CUSTOM DESIGN EVENTS STAND OUT
Hammer Time and Surprise for Santa had the second and third biggest WoW market share impacts of all standalone custom design events in the past 12 months.5 However, Home Design Makeover dominated the rest of the list, accounting for 15 of the top 25 (only the top 10 are shown below).
Top 10 Most Impactful Custom Design Event Releases (Past 12 Months)
App Event Release Date Revenue Market Share (WoW)
Animal Crossing: Pocket Camp Enchanted Costume Collection 9/29/20 +50%
Township Hammer Time 10/22/20 +40%
Township Surprise for Santa 12/17/20 +39%
Animal Crossing: Pocket Camp Chief's Fall Feels Cookie 9/30/20 +34%
Home Design Makeover Valentine's Day Date 2/13/20 +27%
Gardenscapes The Big Top 3/13/20 +25%
Home Design Makeover A Swivel Shake Up 1/11/21 +24%
Home Design Makeover Fit for a Queen 5/18/20 +22%
Home Design Makeover New Orleans Home 9/10/20 +21%
Home Design Makeover Dressing Up Dingy 3/2/20 +21%
NEW INNOVATIONSLEVEL DESIGN
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New obstacles, boosts, and level requirements
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NEW LEVEL DESIGNS
Clouds — Fishdom • Clouds cover pieces on the board (1). • Players cannot make matches with pieces covered by clouds. • Making an adjacent match moves the cloud to another space with a cloud outline.6
Suitcase and Hats — Homescapes • Suitcases contain colored hats. • Hitting a suitcase with boosts clears it and releases the hats (2). • Suitcases with straps require more boosts. • Players clear hats by using them in matches or hitting them with boosts (video).
Trellis Shrub — Matchington Mansion • Trellis spaces contain pieces covered by up to three layers: flowers, shrubs, and baskets. • Layers are cleared by making adjacent matches or hitting them with boosts (3). • Flowers must be cleared from baskets before clearing baskets. • Uncleared baskets cause shrubs to appear on nearby trellises.
• Cleared shrubs and baskets reveal game pieces. • Matches or boosts above uncovered trellises clear them (video).
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Level Design Is Moving!
Beginning next month, we'll be including innovative level design items in the Market Watch section.
MARKET WATCH
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New apps and notable releases from established competitors
Disney Wonderful Worlds by Ludia App Details • Match-3 levels award bonus coins for using certain boosts and piece combinations (1). • Coins are used to build park attractions. • Players can click on Disney characters to bring them to the park for 15 minutes at a time (2). • Each character has tasks to accomplish while at the park (3). • Completing all their tasks awards gems and a boost. • Task progress is saved between characters' visits.
• Completed attractions and character tasks fill a meter. • Completing the meter levels up the park and awards boosts, coins, and a key. • Keys allow players to expand the park and unlock new attractions and characters (4).
Launch Information • Soft-launched on 11/4/20 in Australia, Indonesia, New Zealand, and the Philippines • Average daily revenue since launch: $9 • Average daily downloads since launch: 45 • View Disney Wonderful Worlds on the App Store
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SOFT-LAUNCH APP
Liquid & Grit's Take
Disney Wonderful Worlds' theme park concept is a fresh take on match-3 custom design that directly impacts gameplay via the character visits. But although Disney is an IP powerhouse, Wonderful Worlds is off to a slow start. The app has barely cracked the top 200 highest-grossing puzzle apps in Australia, and its rank in Indonesia has trended steadily downward since launch.
Still, developer Ludia has had success with IP park-builders in the past: Their Jurassic World reliably hovers around the 50th highest-grossing simulation apps in the U.S. If Wonderful Worlds can tailor its systems to a more casual match-3 audience, it may be able to find similar success.
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Redecor - Home Design Makeover by Reworks App Details • Players design limited-time rooms with custom decorations (1). • Decorations cost gold or soft currency and include five of each item per purchase (2). • Once the timer is up, players rate each other's room designs (3). • Players earn soft currency for voting and star tokens based on the ratings they receive. • Star tokens and completed levels unlock new items (4).
• Challenges award gold and soft currency (5). • A duel mode offers head-to-head design battles with random players. • Leaderboards rank players based on wins, five-star designs, and the amount of currency spent on designs. • A $4.99 season pass unlocks unique decorations and resource rewards as players level up (6).
Launch Information • Released worldwide on 4/10/20 • 6th highest-grossing sim app as of 2/1/21 • Average daily U.S. revenue (90 days): $76,456 • Average daily U.S. downloads (90 days): 14,531 • View Redecor - Home Design Makeover on the App Store
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BREAKOUT APP 1 2
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App Release Description
Cookie JamFiFi's Baking Challenge
challenge event
• Consecutive first-try wins add layers to a cake. • Each layer is decorated based on the number of stars earned from that level (1).
• Stars fill a meter for a bonus prize (video). • Losing a level resets players' cake and meter progress. • Beating five consecutive levels on the first try completes the cake and awards a prize.
Cooking Madness-Kitchen
Frenzy
Ski Race competition
event
• Levels award gloves. • Each failed attempt reduces the number of gloves awarded by that level.
• Gloves advance players in a ski race against four other players (2). • Gloves also fill a meter for rewards at milestones (video). • The player with the most gloves at the end of the event wins a prize.
Gardenscapes
Prize-in-the-Box mini-game event
• In each round of a pick'em mini-game, players pick one of four reward boxes (3). • Players can leave with their current rewards or continue playing for up to 30 rounds. • Picking a jester forfeits all rewards unless players spend coins to continue playing (video). • Completing all 30 rounds awards the grand prize.
Romantic Sale purchase event
• A sale offers 60% off of an IAP bundle that includes a season pass for a mission feature. • The season pass unlocks bonuses and a second set of rewards for each reward tier.
June's Journey Detective League club feature
• Players complete challenges and club competition rounds to earn points for their clubs (video). • A leaderboard ranks clubs in six divisions based on points earned (4). • At the end of each week, the top three clubs in each division advance to a higher division and
clubs' earned points move to a bank. • The top division adds clubs' bank points to their total scores. • Rank rewards include boosts, avatars, exclusive decorations, and a new soft currency. • Only contributing players receive rewards.
NOTABLE RELEASES I
SIM
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App Release Description
June's JourneyStyle Picker expansion
feature
• Players earn gold rewards in the Detective Lounge and Detective League club events. • Gold is used to purchase custom styles for certain fully upgraded buildings (1). • Gold can also be used to buy building-specific bundles that include all styles, an exclusive
golden style, and more (video). • Players can change buildings' styles at any time.
Solitaire Grand Harvest
Carrie's Carrots challenge event
• Each consecutive win adds a carrot to a meter, up to five carrots (video). • The carrot meter adds incremental bonuses to the next level (2). • Losing or leaving a level resets the meter.
Gem Boost accelerator
feature
• Before each level, players choose between three tiers of rewards for that level (video). • Higher tiers increase the cost of playing and using boosts (3).
Township Need for Seeds collection event
• Players dodge traffic to move trucks across intersections in an action mini-game. • Each mini-game attempt requires fuel, which replenishes on a timer. • Colliding with traffic ends the mini-game unless players spend currency to continue. • Collectable power-ups can be used to automatically cross an intersection safely.
• Moving trucks across intersections and bringing them to a final destination awards points (4). • Players collect additional trucks for their convoy from the game map (video). • Moving multiple trucks across an intersection at once grants extra points.
• Points fill a meter for a prize wheel spin. • Each subsequent spin requires more points and offers better prizes.
• A leaderboard ranks and rewards players based on points earned.
Quickly review all features and events
Filter the Library Tool by month and year to see all new releases.
NOTABLE RELEASES II
SIM
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APPENDIX
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Township
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9K
12K
15K
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$100K
$200K
$300K
$400K
$500K
10/14/20 10/28/20 11/11/20 11/25/20 12/9/20 12/23/20 1/6/21 1/20/21 2/3/21 2/17/21
Revenue Downloads
Hammer Time Surprise for Santa Movie Night
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TOWNSHIP RELEASE SCHEDULE
Releases
10/15–10/16: Scary Awesome Deal! purchase event 10/16: $6.99 Standard Bundle IAP moved +1 to #5 10/19: $9.99 Medium Cash Pack IAP moved to #10 (NPL*) 10/22–10/27: Hammer Time custom design event 12/17–12/26: Surprise for Santa custom design event 12/21: $4.99 Small Cash Pack IAP moved +1 to #7
12/23: $9.99 Medium Cash Pack IAP moved to #10 (NPL) 1/28/21–2/6: Movie Night custom design event 1/28–2/1: Renovation Bundle purchase event 1/29: App update • $4.99 Bundles of Cash IAP moved +1 to #4
2/1: $6.99 Standard Bundle moved +1 to #5*NPL = Not previously listed
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ENDNOTES1 Two previous versions of this event from April and July 2020 predate our tracking for this app. These events offered a bridge-building mini-game similar to that seen in the Jungle Quest event from August 2019. 2 Subject A; Age 28 male, $5–$10/month spend, 4 hours/week playtime 3 Subject B; Age 47 female, $10/month spend, 10 hours/week playtime 4 Loss aversion is a long-standing economic and psychological theory that has been repeatedly demonstrated through behavioral and neurological studies. It even appears in non-human primates. However, some recent research has suggested that loss aversion may not be as universal as it is sometimes represented. These studies argue that loss aversion is most relevant for risks and rewards over a certain magnitude or within the context of competitions.
Further Reading on Loss Aversion • How Basic Are Behavioral Biases? Evidence from Capuchin Monkey Trading Behavior, Chen et al. (2006) • A Structural Analysis of Disappointment Aversion in a Real Effort Competition, Gill & Prowse (2012) • Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk, Kahneman & Tversky (1979) • Is loss-aversion magnitude-dependent? Measuring prospective affective judgments regarding gains and losses, Mukherjee et al. (2017) • The Neural Basis of Loss Aversion in Decision-Making Under Risk, Tom et al. (2007)
5 Market share impact is the average percentage change in an app's revenue market share for a given time period following a new release. This analysis helps isolate the impact of individual releases from external forces that affect large segments of the market at once, like holidays or COVID social distancing measures.
When calculating market share impact, we generally use only standalone releases—i.e., releases that did not overlap with other event or feature releases on the same day—to provide the most accurate assessment of each event or feature type's impact.
The casual genre includes puzzle, simulation, and lifestyle apps. 6 We were unable to find gameplay showing clouds in action. This is our best understanding of the mechanic based on the images and description provided by the publisher.
Table: Player personas by demographics, monetization, engagement, and motivational buckets
Gamer Gary Escapist Emily Trainer Tracy Challenger Chris Casual Carol
Demographics
Size (N) 24% 15% 22% 18% 21%
Female (%) 53% 68% 73% 59% 66%
Age (mean) 35 36 42 40 34
Monetization
Propensity to spend across all platforms 15.0 7.0 4.8 7.0 4.3
Propensity to spend on F2P games 1.8 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.7
Engagement
Weekly play hours 6.6 7.4 7.6 7.8 6.7
Puzzle motivation 3.1 2.9 2.6 2.7 2.4
Motivational Buckets
Engrossment 0.7 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2
Escape 0.0 0.6 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1
Utility -0.2 -0.3 0.7 0.0 -0.3
Challenge -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.7 -0.3
Boredom -0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 0.9
Survey data from 1,513 puzzle players produced five personas with distinct motivations: Gamer Gary, Escapist Emily, Trainer Tracy, Challenger Chris, and Casual Carol.
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L&G PUZZLE PERSONAS
Liquid & Grit partners with these premier market research and analytics companies to infuse our reports with the most relevant and detailed gaming user personas, data, and statistics available.
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PREMIUM PARTNERSHIPS
Quadrant Strategies Kinrate Analytics Sensor Tower
Market Research Quadrant Strategies
Player Personas Kinrate Analytics
Mobile App Store Intelligence Sensor Tower
Quadrant Strategies is a market research consultancy that uses research to help the world's most prominent technology, gaming, and entertainment companies develop strategies for building their user base, increasing user engagement and spend, and strengthening their marketing and brand plans.
We do that using a range of quantitative and qualitative methodologies, including gamer segmentation and persona development, feature testing, message creation, and loyalty and engagement modeling. The work of our senior leadership goes back many years, and includes long-term engagements for console and gaming-PC hardware-makers, individual games in a range of genres, and across consoles, PCs, and mobile, and for some of the top game franchises.
Kinrate Analytics offers game developers, consultants, publishers, and cloud gaming operators the best cross-platform game recommendation engine for targeted marketing, as well as a novel profiling-as-a-service solution for intelligent market segmentation and social networking.
Other services include advanced market prediction analyses for identifying emergent gaming trends and access to unique AI-enhanced data of 140 thousand game titles and 48 million game players.
The products of Kinrate Analytics have been developed in university-led research projects in collaboration with economists, psychologists, game scholars, and data scientists.
Sensor Tower is relied upon by financial analysts, VCs, and publishers who need to leverage data to identify the fastest-growing apps, emerging markets, and more.
Clients harness Sensor Tower's suite of app intelligence tools to:
‣ Evaluate app economies and app vitality. ‣ Drive organic growth with the leading App Store
Optimization platform. ‣ Get the best global download and revenue
estimates for the App Store and Google Play. ‣ Discover top creatives and better shape user
acquisition strategy.
Family Definition
Accelerators Increases in the power, impact, or efficiency of play
Banks Features that save a % of spend to be unlocked later
Bonuses Free bonuses given to players (e.g., retention or W2E)
Challenges Goal-oriented tasks for players to complete
Clubs Groups that accomplish goals or compete with other groups
Collections Sets of items that players collect (often for a completion prize)
Competitions Features where players compete against other players
Cosmetics Improvements or updates to the app or features
Currencies Changes to currencies, economies, stores, and items
Custom Design Options for cosmetic customization
Expansions Additional rooms, worlds, play modes, VIP lounges, etc.
Flows Specific flows, like the NUX, ratings, and surveys
Family Definition
Hazards Level elements/blockers that increase difficulty
Interactions Social features with direct or indirect interaction
Leaderboards Stand-alone leaderboards
Levels Anything to do with leveling
Mini-Games Smaller, shorter games within games (e.g., scratch cards)
Missions Linear sets of tasks that players must accomplish
Notices Feature or product announcements
Other Miscellaneous features and outliers
Profiles Features related to a player's settings, profile, and controls
Purchases Anything to do with purchases
Quests Tasks that advance players along a map-like feature
Rewards Rewards players receive for engagement or spend
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PUZZLE MECHANICS TAXONOMY
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