raven’s rock and the tanawha trail sarah dochow andrew may callie safley
TRANSCRIPT
Raven’s Rock and the Raven’s Rock and the Tanawha TrailTanawha Trail
Sarah DochowSarah Dochow
Andrew MayAndrew May
Callie SafleyCallie Safley
PurposePurpose
• Estimate Value
• Determine Demand for the Environmental Resources
• Investigate Factors– Permit– Ranger Presence– Maintenance
TheoryTheory
• Demand Curve – Created by putting trips on the horizontal axis
and the travel cost on the vertical axis
• Consumer surplus – Region below the demand curve and above
the average price level
MethodMethod
• Random Interviews– At or near Tanawha Trail and Raven’s Rock– Hypothetical questions used to establish shifts
in the demand curve
• Demand curve– Derived from interview responses
• Confirmed confidentiality – Made results available if requested
DataData
• Sample size = 38 people
• Average Number of Trips to Tanawha Trail– 3.13 ± 0.67
• Average Number of Trips to Raven’s Rock– 1.907 ± 0.464
Data (cont.)Data (cont.)
• Average Willingness to Pay for hiking permit – $7.59 – SD = $10.81
• Average Travel Cost (.36*roundtrip distance)– $79.08 – SD = $113.76
Data (cont.)Data (cont.)
• 63% were male participants
• Average Education level was 3.5 years of college
• Average age was 34
• 74% were willing to pay for a permit
Statistical ResultsStatistical Results
• We took the natural log of RP-trips and add one to get the values for the horizontal axis: ln(trips+1)
• We had travel cost on the vertical axis calculated by: (.36*roundtrip distance)
• We had three possible demand shifters but only one was statistically significant at the 92% level: (1-pvalue)= (1-.08)=.92
Demand ModelDemand Model
CoefficientStandard
Error t Stat
Intercept 0.85 0.131 6.53
Demand Slope -0.0015 0.00062 -2.40
Park Ranger 0.028 0.171 0.165
Trail Maintenance 0.313 0.171 1.83
Consumer SurplusConsumer Surplus
• Consumer Surplus • Semi-log: –x/b; where x = Number of
Trips, b = travel cost coefficient• b = -.0015• Number of trips to Ravens Rock: x =
1.908; CS = 1.908/.0015 = $1272• Number of trips to Ravens Rock with the
quality improvement: Δx = 1.36; ΔCS = 1.36/.0015 = $908
Aggregate CSAggregate CS
• Individual ΔCS = $908
• Population of 5 counties = 903,568
• We assume that 5% are hikers (Outdoor Recreation Participation Study)
• Aggregate ΔCS = 41,021,987.2