ray arritt, dave flory, bill gutowski, and gene takle

Ray Arritt, Dave Flory, Bill Gutowski, and Gene TakleNARCCAP: Status Report and Some Preliminary Results

North America Regional Climate Change Assessment Program: ParticipantsRaymond Arritt, David Flory, William Gutowski, Gene Takle, Iowa State University, USARichard Jones, W. Moufouma-Okia, Hadley Centre, UKDaniel Caya, Sbastien Biner, OURANOS, CanadaPhil Duffy, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories, USAFilippo Giorgi, Abdus Salam ICTP, ItalyIsaac Held, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USARen Laprise, Univ. de Qubec Montral, CanadaRuby Leung, Y. Qian, Pacific Northwest National Laboratories, USALinda Mearns, Don Middleton, Doug Nychka, Phil Rasch, Tom Wigley, National Center for Atmospheric Research, USAAna Nunes, John Roads, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, USASteve Sain, Univ. of Colorado at Denver, USALisa Sloan, Mark Snyder, Univ. of California at Santa Cruz, USA

Current statusWorking data sets: UC - Santa Cruz (RCM3 designation)Longitude variable differs other models with negative longitudes for western hemisphere. Precip and 500 mb heights through 1991.PNL (mm5p and wrfp designation)Two files incomplete when transferred (Ruby has been contacted).Precip and 500 mb heights through 1985. Error in interpolation for 500 mb height from WRF.OURANOS (MRCC designation)All files checked via checksums and are working fine. Precip and 500 mb height through full period.

Current statusNot Working data sets:

Hadley Centre (PRECIS) Files provided as monthly mean values. Not usable as submitted but able to processes after using ncdump | ncgen. Monthly output rather than 3-hour. Scripps (ECPC) Individual netCDF files provided for every output time step. No internal timestamp. Variable and dimension names, etc. differ from specs. Output through 1987. (All this is straightforward to fix, except timestamp.)

NARCCAP PlansPhase I: 1979-2004 driven by Reanalysis 2establish uncertainty in RCMsPhase IIa: RCMs driven by AOGCM 20th century climate (nominally 1971-2000)Phase IIb: RCMs driven by AOGCM SRES A2 scenario 2041-2070

The MatrixAny changes?

GFDL

CGCM3

HADCM3

CCSM

MM5

X

X

RegCM3

X

X

MRCC

X

X

PRECIS

X

X

X

X

RSM

X

X

WRF

X

X

X

Some data issuesTime coordinate: Days versus hours.Recommendation: Hours would be simple integer; days may be easier for end users.Bounds for coordinate variables (space and time)Recommendation: Drop bounds for spatial coordinates. Keep bounds for time.Include projection information in metadata (following ENSEMBLES)?Recommendation: Yes. See example sent by Hadley Centre.

Some data issuesReporting domain: Send the entire domain to the archive or only the region inside the forcing frame (aka sponge zone)? There does not appear to be any straightforward way of subsetting for users. Recommendation: Exclude forcing frameOutput transmittal to archive: ftp vs. mailing external hard drives (FedEX Net)?Recommendation: External hard drives. (Hadley Centre may prefer DLT cartridges.)

Meetings"Downscaling to local and regional scales" (IAMAS session MS016) at the IUGG Conference in Perugia, Italy 2-13 July 2007.Designate a regular professional conference for NARCCAP meetings? Would help to save travel time and funds.Recommendation: Fall AGU (consistent location; easy to reach). Propose a regional modeling session at each meeting; maybe a NARCCAP session at later stages.

Some preliminary resultsResults are shown here for 1979-1985 from three RCMs.Observed precip is from the CRU 0.5o data set.probably underestimates precip in high terrain need to look at other precip data sets

Analysis RegionsNorthern Plains: flat terrain, early summer precip maximumPacific Northwest: mountainous terrain, winter precip maximum

Precipitation, 1979-1985

Chart2

1.22263437420.8148692471.08147400450.58

1.18768499530.9540712291.25141609450.74

2.10177171782.13641680232.04023359211.78

2.57917589012.07406383132.98241046781.65

3.10452807223.60320385892.56263361392.15

3.24995583942.44061021933.01090339722.51

2.54632366013.24727357262.73110933312.56

2.71790315272.43419671213.79647947742.69

1.13233267821.32901925061.38813006261.36

0.98493985082.08341006922.21544898372

0.5918432421.22080801411.60146677850.94

1.08857030620.67067828330.99057736390.44

1.38167214581.19400564131.53074280650.81

1.00020253410.60454175191.03285912260.62

2.09665961361.14262615732.10607399810.86

1.06030829170.99159566831.47487121770.52

2.30909691842.0993182544.28840550811.22

2.7659533212.707807183.25403386852.55

2.84670652922.27758189553.70292317121.91

4.05553998273.09283443184.40740234684.21

1.47813442751.50974179682.28492632732.57

1.2312510291.28493680081.91685354921.38

0.88658130310.94821275151.06745805570.53

1.24309086420.95214608481.24029881980.59

0.68426334990.42621608060.80771655870.26

1.001897940.64875359431.06454856240.68

1.34276608940.90945393931.75052065080.75

2.03110254651.71043544432.45385294331.38

3.67159171162.66300557893.8387628871.52

3.91893869512.84687361084.73334759543.57

2.96227268992.44933742963.699052752.84

1.3700616251.36040547531.92313219822.87

0.84477255290.91701985381.168568062.14

0.70178966511.65787860142.01531896741.95

0.63683287550.74692534541.145358750.82

1.01598038320.61319785331.08901094270.67

1.38276900220.74567389370.99851972720.9

1.02570912570.57632031380.87329032240.44

1.88875135021.23748887231.59368638881.23

1.46680189811.79973491041.44483635051.08

2.2692924923.64683089494.9274488533.45

2.79240597722.38083265724.03619095162.35

2.40167111082.58967893042.79422662673.45

2.08179032221.83918043053.51195036812.46

0.85422921511.64852925251.59229755662.19

1.30408672471.67811464651.61307004392.81

0.97643344751.06373219651.60111946241.07

1.29864768511.42165949771.64279587881.14

0.58381842080.70421358150.87704807470.61

0.40365054910.63426117330.77966318750.59

2.52733799761.71814383032.96380789891.63

2.1802020262.18710856253.00316919461.05

3.6236715392.25225807823.33156110332.22

3.11764816013.49956383994.73876293013.36

2.47348146831.79922927593.08631042162.82

1.69322191341.34434262891.96793563821.99

1.71461625041.38891623742.38424197932.5

1.82925499851.08999515812.72964965671.38

1.37375878571.68802486622.54151123432.05

1.1192510750.69454176681.19870636930.63

0.98366167380.70388121131.08180510660.56

0.96592176940.75869594951.0020359930.68

2.11115448241.15633288932.35203140710.81

2.59331215462.25108675093.29645673962.47

2.72722717651.73170586862.97978107621.93

3.45202180813.18615732353.99124380224.17

1.94128562161.78214487512.99932486922.08

1.56932989291.12556689851.84980508061.58

1.81811767561.62030165592.92863835681.88

1.05031907831.8195576992.16203149563.2

1.60913724251.06964851341.57208823451.04

1.08139738430.73426086540.97453650330.93

0.79853272470.46162414380.89318939840.56

0.85073735390.63894794260.88350042710.52

0.97901230391.05110422320.92699441381.06

2.26246750111.65971174862.62914159431.53

2.86341352052.18399196473.53742453252.57

2.83841081332.10722949073.10858225973.08

1.97743976031.66568114312.17863632741.94

2.21997496852.30530963522.55769126653.5

2.30678548021.70485105313.10953548462.98

0.73209755781.54869977711.6893641531.36

1.79889506151.52269852131.68398196921.37

1.15291206740.71813586221.15493422220.74

PNLMM5

MRCC

REGCM3

CRU

Precipitation (mm/day)

Northern Great Plains

ne_mrcc

LatitudeBounds:4050

LongitudeBounds:275290corrmean ann cyc

19791932.2443557666273.88435148241.8121012789

19792496.988041936272.0707835081.8614092611

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19794933.7002906546273.89041787772.6688898028

19795714.6571384126272.97773807672.9006709309

19796638.6488988366272.66103707853.0266391863

19797791.1451409996273.29643808752.8092349769

19798840.2563269936273.50106802912.7275228091

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197910593.3110810816272.47212950452.0847608717

197911728.5644743346273.03568530972.408091206

197912449.5634700336271.87318112512.1106690015

19801462.2373961166271.9259891505

19802186.8854046856270.7786891862

19803683.471476776272.8477978199

19804619.1205759066272.5796690663

19805592.2774925546272.4678228856

19806960.1150052926274.0004791887

19807770.8470938686273.2118628911

19808807.8989002446273.3662454177

19809845.7255826866273.5238565945

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198011429.3659198056271.7890246659

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19819548.529895726272.2855412322

198110545.0273557096272.2709473155

198111337.0630942996271.4044295596

198112416.423332836271.7350972201

19821498.2399274246272.0759996976

19822557.2640483176272.3219335347

19823589.2123103736272.4550512932

19824549.3758675276272.2890661147

19825461.4505819356271.9227107581

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19827598.6439544666272.4943498103

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198210404.3521749836271.6848007291

198211638.6099756066272.6608748984

198212588.1527848696272.4506366036

19831325.5819316146271.3565913817

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19839556.1632545956272.3173468941

198310497.1036746586272.0712653111

198311681.3398303396272.8389159597

198312640.530288976272.668876204

19841383.3265068266271.5971937784

19842509.1291230256272.1213713459

19843484.1141168846272.0171421537

19844580.9543677786272.4206431991

19845933.5008068786273.8895866953

19846680.21281546272.8342200642

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19848518.9884074646272.1624516978

19849488.2907695836272.0345448733

198410426.5689721536271.7773707173

198411502.2677978076272.0927824909

198412537.266212816272.23860922

19851234.9929185016270.9791371604

19852423.7636571626271.7656819048

19853669.8823846272.7911766

19854473.2312456426271.9717968568

19855582.7125572726272.4279689886

19856625.7208436756272.607170182

19857815.707955496273.3987831479

19858682.4568790846272.8435703295

19859477.6588119446271.9902450498

198510350.8091590746271.4617048295

198511728.3821338346273.0349255576

198512488.6410964216272.0360045684

19861486.5015267776272.0270896949

19862457.4150192846271.9058959137

19863616.4417836196272.5685074317

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19869908.3595622746273.7848315095

198610474.9947646526271.9791448527

198611580.7274725256272.4196978022

198612417.7691243926271.740704685

19871460.0013622376271.9166723427

19872140.1515025046270.5839645938

19873447.0273666496271.8626140277

19874560.0711931086272.3336299713

19875583.6072763826272.4316969849

19876617.0111713216272.5708798805

19877735.0106835676273.0625445149

19878602.503341096272.5104305879

19879688.6233775636272.8692640732

198710543.8084954486272.265868731

198711507.6818219526272.1153409248

198712612.8897146416272.5537071443

19881470.8022122316271.9616758843

19882469.5445886256271.9564357859

19883475.4624651926271.981093605

19884531.7438218446272.2155992577

19885748.7060824126273.1196086767

19886313.6595916136271.3069149651

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19888928.9316175766273.8705484066

19889463.7314370436271.932214321

198810441.5686811626271.8398695048

198811759.6740127266273.1653083864

198812452.5180292316271.8854917885

19891471.6755422186271.9653147592

19892380.3005143516271.5845854765

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ne_rcm3

LatitudeBounds:4050

LongitudeBounds:-85-70corr

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19792659.7936513575242.7491402142.4745600738

19793836.9711416055243.48737975673.154885339

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PNLMM5

MRCC

REGCM3

mean_annual_cycle

LatitudeBounds:nw

LongitudeBounds:mrccrcm3

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19835

19836

19837

19838

19839

198310

198311

198312

19841

19842

19843

19844

19845

19846

19847

19848

19849

198410

198411

198412

19851

19852

19853

19854

19855

19856

19857

19858

19859

198510

198511

198512

nplains_CRU

Fileheaderinformation

TyndallCentregrimfilecreatedon13.01.2004at14:28byDr.TimMitchell

.pre=precipitation(mm)

CRUTS2.1

[Long=-180.00,180.00][Lati=-90.00,90.00][GridX,Y=720,360]

[Boxes=67420][Years=1901-2002][Multi=0.1000][Missing=-999]

Resultsfromaveragingover

Latituderange:40-55degN

Longituderange:-102.5--90degE

Correspondingtoindexranges

261-290inlatitude

156-180inlongitude

Processed22year(s):1979-2000

Domaingives750gridpoints,with16500samplesinthetimeandspaceaverage

AveragePrecipitation

YearMonth-->

123456789101112

19790.580.741.781.652.152.512.562.691.3620.940.44

19800.810.620.860.521.222.551.914.212.571.380.530.59

19810.260.680.751.381.523.572.842.872.141.950.820.67

19820.90.441.231.083.452.353.452.462.192.811.071.14

19830.610.591.631.052.223.362.821.992.51.382.050.63

19840.560.680.812.471.934.172.081.581.883.21.040.93

19850.560.521.061.532.573.081.943.52.981.361.370.74

19860.510.661.013.142.142.883.512.313.751.191.050.46

19870.370.851.470.532.272.073.492.811.580.780.880.7

19880.680.41.120.842.041.752.322.582.570.731.380.82

19890.80.410.811.071.792.831.822.752.091.040.810.45

19900.730.531.581.571.884.072.72.091.371.240.970.82

19910.490.491.142.393.033.442.681.613.181.721.730.68

19920.660.721.011.451.472.623.492.652.820.861.360.88

19930.630.410.761.562.374.065.023.572.030.920.920.57

19940.630.570.461.321.423.013.082.362.22.091.330.63

19950.830.541.321.72.822.043.023.011.781.91.140.71

19960.840.690.830.982.552.452.782.362.671.931.90.86

19970.820.540.811.541.722.573.161.892.192.20.710.41

19980.831.021.081.152.723.92.232.481.632.991.290.46

19990.70.590.882.043.553.243.282.442.530.720.430.5

20000.480.871.021.32.383.342.62.331.781.5220.73

mean ann cyc

1979-19850.61142857140.611.161.38285714292.15142857143.08428571432.51428571432.75714285712.23142857142.01142857141.11714285710.7342857143

nw_CRU




CRUTS2.1

[Long=-180.00,180.00][Lati=-90.00,90.00][GridX,Y=720,360]




Longituderange:-122.5--115degE


257-290inlatitude

116-130inlongitude




YearMonth-->

123456789101112

19791.673.561.431.471.1810.991.160.951.831.332.93

19802.642.761.871.212.132.471.161.261.750.782.243.66

19811.342.251.641.592.061.991.350.551.272.092.733.57

19823.452.922.21.520.961.552.231.431.932.012.032.58

19832.783.063.211.680.952.221.991.191.31.353.823.19

19842.031.742.011.442.022.210.731.151.521.913.612.26

19850.561.881.311.121.041.460.491.122.252.262.11.06

19862.633.952.131.491.511.061.870.412.320.832.611.18

19871.961.672.441.161.771.171.830.910.380.471.632.86

19882.091.461.722.081.541.931.060.961.220.763.421.94

19892.161.2931.231.641.461.062.251.071.522.561.37

19903.042.161.221.472.352.041.171.340.382.043.382.28

19911.321.92.411.611.941.850.981.30.51.22.91.76

19922.221.820.881.740.851.691.420.81.431.382.062.8

19932.641.1922.041.72.521.811.310.451.251.212.13

19942.072.561.181.421.551.730.730.920.881.712.922.4

19952.931.562.981.661.562.261.681.410.941.653.633.18

19963.033.081.562.062.61.20.990.91.52.153.14.55

19973.271.32.481.541.522.471.841.11.912.192.031.47

19983.512.592.481.362.411.841.070.351.111.553.582.74

19992.582.711.470.931.132.061.320.850.451.182.271.4

20002.62.751.711.341.861.41.350.731.31.860.981.35

2.06714285712.59571428571.95285714291.43285714291.47714285711.84285714291.27714285711.12285714291.56714285711.74714285712.55142857142.75

ne_CRU




CRUTS2.1

[Long=-180.00,180.00][Lati=-90.00,90.00][GridX,Y=720,360]




Longituderange:-85--70degE


261-280inlatitude

191-220inlongitude




YearMonth-->

123456789101112

19793.291.422.623.093.022.922.783.533.113.282.811.94

19801.440.842.662.791.83.13.683.253.582.912.12.02

19810.943.431.323.042.594.062.472.833.643.291.932.25

19822.61.492.072.251.93.92.832.83.382.063.292.58

19831.761.852.493.544.472.022.312.633.2233.763.52

19841.42.291.92.424.033.433.382.952.552.032.582.85

19851.752.452.521.952.452.663.872.913.062.483.812.33

19862.221.72.252.12.773.633.543.244.12.632.462.29

19871.920.721.842.052.173.353.073.183.432.712.362.31

19881.912.621.752.342.12.012.894.332.943.373.661.93

19891.911.582.421.613.633.732.13.032.783.083.741.6

19902.562.51.532.383.463.733.183.043.324.112.963.35

19911.881.332.922.762.541.672.633.22.993.412.292.17

19922.111.922.322.52.072.34.613.543.842.183.342.29

19932.231.611.863.242.553.212.912.783.763.152.691.91

19942.431.572.142.752.513.953.873.932.521.363.081.73

19952.731.791.782.332.791.843.512.522.624.393.832.14

19962.922.061.53.952.543.424.571.734.313.12.523.42

19973.242.282.691.652.852.542.693.363.041.862.731.61

19982.921.763.012.092.23.952.892.622.752.152.221.64

19993.371.561.721.532.462.673.112.264.262.912.161.73

20002.071.81.832.553.483.942.83.012.811.822.12.45

PLOTS

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

PLOTS

3.3695823253.55239262412.8244482078

6.12570532715.98174645534.7377118399

2.68227134373.1357880612.1605996828

2.81187916592.88740008392.1478832854

1.88207961792.36153605961.9876283069

1.03110341711.28133028841.4302554884

0.71173625470.82382854471.5607778057

1.09707611661.51448216551.7497196103

0.88623793581.21105996020.8533027527

1.99001762242.84790415812.1461196598

2.06665894751.69642316541.4776918964

5.40373316.07676568894.8178002008

3.58257479163.84626972973.1257351525

3.71307224874.34439249783.8360373985

3.07563227463.72283065312.3863359792

2.38669752122.65815972191.920824496

3.11788547253.32459970632.8476876436

2.42905444362.74678797052.4922020977

0.73118710350.95270661281.5549657302

1.18982788321.0969882731.5416770185

1.74658116712.5565056771.8712115565

1.05909448451.50332394850.9701967332

3.4687444074.11320149933.6301444685

5.81127232085.87268813125.1422842413

2.58593715923.1031646741.985105546

3.52823375083.85809330482.6028788772

2.2060801462.72769594251.8840104627

3.38414096593.97282208841.9164798468

2.14744585042.15993233362.1214099932

1.87169193572.64094274342.0852868806

0.85416476881.34066104371.2509491194

0.37086585370.70786091660.676105153

0.73094371480.96862753991.174788702

1.75695059112.53971623492.0964825648

4.23164416744.57456294963.2239197198

6.0450218865.97929787134.6369122321

5.30766375655.63848791583.8362813061

4.94566956125.08240372553.4671875077

3.330300033.35990427612.1096036353

2.84589733662.94883989392.0025730751

1.42827105131.7111675861.2740701297

2.13760569921.89911457191.9301923208

1.35042785841.81461332431.8602364386

0.56759109710.83340571270.9974962896

0.88070976191.11562678961.2366455132

2.3646416013.12822826782.3928753444

3.79090930923.98210832052.5784828707

4.22706527494.58705330393.3839975578

4.92382241445.15762887123.6518221177

3.98341804625.01208497253.7724398507

3.74280752444.05784382553.3757392592

2.46899711882.30872550121.7121555792

1.32516150231.93413307951.183367446

2.38827264292.42780428452.1305605086

1.37651556541.89192865712.0655014151

0.50844015030.7628065831.2996890217

0.88366528271.45649480351.0490799409

1.86864919372.57546682951.458358058

5.24540262475.14192965094.1868668969

5.12625708875.28353187973.9552954552

4.38981002764.25107519262.8585370985

3.72739107044.07030006172.7068776913

3.15071067723.5605372392.5240552894

2.54711086593.11306940261.606384002

2.85755967633.6435051582.36116211

1.87325003982.12205299571.9914557381

0.67190837381.03206006860.9769271714

1.05008260921.16490488711.3927971265

1.21922526831.56000140211.2639068007

2.60842747523.43939471462.4547602013

5.94617932397.02007022754.1472262134

3.50338872573.49014909662.3075640498

1.70354264341.76669274571.1737375291

4.54336975794.3103276942.325970026

3.08169237442.97824173671.6534159179

2.18276955182.36669518931.478574252

2.02191154182.26207213741.4715486096

1.14805737791.3490596311.3657640048

0.5662028550.45936028480.8659400791

0.84986746061.1480362841.0303137124

1.87730276722.29176487311.4567905718

3.82584758555.0897223642.4642257339

3.31928931463.63006409232.1540369763

2.197851072.46197771441.5799284419

PNLMM5

REGCM3

MRCC

Precipitation (mm/day)

Pacific Northwest

3.98137391963.88435148244.01818565243.29

2.96339927442.0707835082.7491402141.42

2.49209160872.69028953233.48737975672.62

4.22343599793.89041787773.78959096143.09

2.60240604382.97773807674.1929768173.02

3.09011758872.66103707854.30523675132.92

2.14602625373.29643808754.25377477782.78

3.05918798293.50106802914.00816870513.53

2.14599831011.94803513672.4399499523.11

2.85127354892.47212950452.99816421313.28

2.55296817623.03568530972.61642210562.81

2.22380687831.87318112512.23762688671.94

2.80379770541.92598915

ray arritt, dave flory, bill gutowski, and gene takle

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