recent market developments and short-term outlook follow-up to the guidelines for national and...
TRANSCRIPT
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Follow-up to the Guidelines for National and International Action on Rice
2001-2003
Joint Meeting of the 30th Session of the IGG on Grains and the 41st
Session of the IGG on Rice
Rome 10-11 February 2004
CCP: GR-RI 04/CRS.4
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What are the Guidelines?
… a voluntary code of action to:
• Achieve a balance between production consumption and trade in rice
• Prevent distortions and restrictions on world
markets
• Foster the development of the rice sector in developing countries through multilateral cooperation
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Review of Rice policies2001-2003
IGG Documents
• CCP: GR-RI 04/3-Supp.1: Legal text of the Guidelines and Statistical annexes
• CCP: GR-RI 04/3: Synopsis of major policy developments and recommendations for special consideration by the IGG
Food Policy Review - 2002
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Context to policies
• Launching of a new Round of MTN
• International rice prices still low
FAO Rice Export Price Index
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
1998-2000=100
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Rice Production Policies
• General production policies – by region
• Market stabilization measures and producer price support
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General Production Policies
In Asia
• Self-sufficiency objectives
• Yield enhancement through hybrid seeds and biotechnology
• Diversification out of marginal lands
• Move from quantity to quality objectives
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General Production Policies
In Africa
• Promotion of in-valley, low land production • Diffusion of Nerica varieties and of short-cycle varieties• Rehabilitation of irrigation schemes and transfer of their management to farmers
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Production Yields
million tonnes, paddy tonnes/ha.
est.
Egypt: Rice Production and Yields
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General Production Policies
In Latin America and the Caribbean
• Policies based on consultations with the private sector
• Limited interference from governments
• Yield enhancement through research in new rainfed and irrigated varieties
• Solving land tenure problems
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General Production Policies
In the Chinese Prov. of Taiwan, Japan, the Rep. of Korea and Malaysia
• Restructuring and consolidation of farms to improve competitiveness
• Cuts to production, principally through
land diversion programmes
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General Production Policies
In the European Union
New policy regime as of 2004/05
• 50% cut in Intervention prices • 75 000 tonnes ceiling on intervention• Much higher “decoupled” payments per
hectare• 8% reduction in rice base areas
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General Production Policies
In the United States • The 2002 Farm Act reintroduces target prices for the calculation of counter-cyclical payments
• Direct payments down but loan benefits up.
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1200
1400
1600
91/9
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92/9
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Direct Payments Loan Benefits Total Transfers
million US$
Unites States : Transfer to rice under Direct Payments and Loan Benefits
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Market stabilization
Support prices….
• Widely used in Asia, but very little in LAC or Africa• In general stable, but some were raised• Price support remains very high in a number of countries
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Market stabilization
• Large government procurement purchases especially in India and Thailand
'000 tonnes
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Thailand: Paddy pledged under the Paddy Mortgage scheme (Main crop)
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Market stabilization
• Large releases from stocks in China
China: Rice Production and Estimated Opening Stocks
80
100
120
140
160
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20030
20
40
60
80
100
120
Production Opening Stocks
million tonnes million tonnes
(milled eq.)
est.
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Alternatives Instruments for Market / Prices Stabilization
• Market insurance
• Futures (India, Thailand)
• Contract between producers and millers/traders (Vietnam, Russian Fed.)
• Crop absorption schemes (Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, etc.)
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Consumption and Marketing Policies
• Retail price controls diminished
• Subsidized rice sales better targeted to the needy
• Programmes to raise consumption (Japan, the Rep. of Korea, EU)
• Liberalization of domestic marketing (India, Myanmar, China)
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Rice Trade Policies
Major developments
• New WTO members (China, Chinese Prov. of Taiwan, Cambodia, Nepal) important for rice
• Reforms of State trading enterprises
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Export Measures
• Council for Rice Trade Cooperation • Governments active in finding new
markets • Tightening of export quality standards
and minimum export prices• Relaxation of export restrictions • Growing use of subsidies by some
developing countries
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Subsidies boost exports by India
India: Rice Exports and Opening Public Stocks
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20040
5
10
15
20
25
Exports Opening Public Stocks
million tonnes million tonnes
f.cast
(milled eq.)
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Import measures
• New WTO members opened tariff quota
• Relaxation of import monopolies
• Ample use of tariff and non-tariff barriers
• Recourse to safeguards, anti-dumping clauses and to phytosanitary measures
• Tighter controls to halt smuggling
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Food aid shipments
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
'000 tonnes
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Rice Reserves
• Large stock draw-downs, especially in India and China, to reduce the burden on public finances
• China largely internalized the adjustments by reducing production
• India transmitted the burden of its adjustment on world markets, by subsidizing exports
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Issues for special consideration by the Group
• Areas of progress – para 47 • Areas of concern – para 48
• Secretariat recommendations – para 49
…should governments be urged to raise production?
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THANK YOU
Concepción CalpeBasic Foodstuffs Service
Commodities and Trade DivisionEconomic and Social Department
FAO (Room D-823)Viale delle Terme di Caracalla - 00100 Rome, ItalyTel. 39-06570554136 - Fax 39-0657054495E-mail: [email protected]