Regional Climate Change Regional Climate Change Scenarios for India and Scenarios for India and

Implications for Water Availability Implications for Water Availability IssuesIssues

K. Krishna KumarK. Krishna KumarCIRES Visiting Fellow, University of Colorado, CIRES Visiting Fellow, University of Colorado,

BoulderBoulder

K. Rupa Kumar, N.R. Deshpande, V. K. Rupa Kumar, N.R. Deshpande, V. Prasanna and S.K. PatwardhanPrasanna and S.K. Patwardhan

Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, IndiaIndian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India

Indian Summer Monsoon FlowIndian Summer Monsoon Flow

Mean Rainfall PatternsMean Rainfall PatternsData Source: CMAP (1979-2000)Data Source: CMAP (1979-2000)

Summer Monsoon(mm/season)

Annual(mm/year)

Mean Annual Cycle of Mean Annual Cycle of All-India Mean Monthly RainfallAll-India Mean Monthly Rainfall

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All-India Summer Monsoon Rainfall (1871-2001)All-India Summer Monsoon Rainfall (1871-2001)(Based on IITM Homogeneous Monthly Rainfall Data Set)(Based on IITM Homogeneous Monthly Rainfall Data Set)

Agriculture Agriculture FactsFacts

India lives mainly in its villages, 600,000 of themIndia lives mainly in its villages, 600,000 of them Roughly 65% of the population is ruralRoughly 65% of the population is rural India’s growth in per capita food production during 1979-92 was India’s growth in per capita food production during 1979-92 was

about 1.6% per annum – the highest in the world during this periodabout 1.6% per annum – the highest in the world during this period Agriculture provides livelihood to about 65% of the labor forceAgriculture provides livelihood to about 65% of the labor force Agriculture contributes nearly 29% to the GDPAgriculture contributes nearly 29% to the GDP In terms of fertilizer consumption, India ranks 4In terms of fertilizer consumption, India ranks 4 thth in the world in the world About 43% of India’s geographical area is used for agricultureAbout 43% of India’s geographical area is used for agriculture

IRRIGATIONIRRIGATION Crop

Area under crop (mn.

hec)

Irrigated area under crop (mn. hec.)

Irrigated area as % of

total area under crops

Foodgrains 121 45 37

Rice 43 19 45

Wheat 23 19 84

Non-foodgrains 61 19 31

Groundnut 9 2 20

Cotton 7 3 33

Sugarcane 4 3 86

Total 183 64 35

Total Total Foodgrain Foodgrain Production in Production in India and its India and its Relation to Relation to Indian Indian RainfallRainfall

India’s Water SituationIndia’s Water Situation

Proposed River LinkagesProposed River Linkages

Development of Climate Change Development of Climate Change Scenarios of Rainfall and Scenarios of Rainfall and Temperature over the Indian Temperature over the Indian regionregion

Potential Impacts:Potential Impacts:

• Water ResourcesWater Resources• AgricultureAgriculture• Sea Level RiseSea Level Rise

and many more sectors…and many more sectors…

Development of Future Development of Future Scenarios of Rainfall & Scenarios of Rainfall & Temperature over IndiaTemperature over India

• IS92a (8 Coupled Atmos.-Ocean GCMs)IS92a (8 Coupled Atmos.-Ocean GCMs)• SRES A2 (5 AOGCMs)SRES A2 (5 AOGCMs)• SRES B2 (5 AOGCMs)SRES B2 (5 AOGCMs)

Simulations are generally available for about 200 Simulations are generally available for about 200 years (~1870s till 2100)years (~1870s till 2100)

A1: A world of rapid economic growth and rapid introductions of new and more efficient technologies

A2: A very heterogeneous world with an emphasis on family values and local traditions

B1: A world of ‘dematerialization’ and introduction of clean technologies

B2: A world with an emphasis on local solutions to economic and environmental sustainability

IPCC 2001 climate change scenarios

5 state-of-the-art climate models rununtil 2100 with various emission scenarios

AOGCM simulations used from IPCC-DDCAOGCM simulations used from IPCC-DDC

Using greenhouse gas forced (following IS92A, SRES (A2/B2) scenarios) simulations of 8 different coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models, the rainfall and temperature scenarios for 2021-40; 2041-60; 2061-80; 2081-2100 compared to the baseline period of 1961-90 are generated for the Indian region. The models used are:

1. Canadian Center for Climate modeling (CCC) model.2. Center for Climate Research studies (CCSR) model.3. Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) model.4. Deutsches Klima Rechen Zentrum (DKRZ) model. 5. Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) model.6. Hadley Centered model.(HadCM3)7. Max-planck Institute(MPI) model. 8. National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) model.

Indian Summer Monsoon Patterns as simulated by 8 Indian Summer Monsoon Patterns as simulated by 8 coupled AOGCMscoupled AOGCMs

Annual Cycles of All-India mean rainfall in the Annual Cycles of All-India mean rainfall in the control simulations of coupled AOGCMscontrol simulations of coupled AOGCMs

Annual Surface Air Temperature Patterns over India Annual Surface Air Temperature Patterns over India simulated by 8 coupled AOGCMssimulated by 8 coupled AOGCMs

AOGCM AOGCM Scenarios of Scenarios of all-India all-India summer summer monsoon monsoon rainfall and rainfall and mean annual mean annual surface surface temperaturetemperature

AOGCM AOGCM Projected Projected change in change in summer summer monsoon monsoon rainfall, relative rainfall, relative to 1961-90to 1961-90

2041-602041-60 2061-802061-80

AOGCM AOGCM Projected Projected change in mean change in mean annual surface annual surface air temperature, air temperature, relative to 1961-relative to 1961-9090

2041-602041-60 2061-802061-80

Future Change in Monsoon Rainfall Variability Future Change in Monsoon Rainfall Variability (IS92a)(IS92a)

High-resolution Climate High-resolution Climate Change Scenarios using Change Scenarios using Regional Climate Model Regional Climate Model 　　　　　　 (( ＨａｄＲＭ２／ＨａｄＲＭ２／

HadRM3)HadRM3)

GCMs to GCMs to Regional Regional Adaptive Adaptive Responses : Responses : Modelling PathModelling Path

The Hadley Centre Regional Climate The Hadley Centre Regional Climate ModelsModels

(HadRM2/HadRM3H/PRECIS)(HadRM2/HadRM3H/PRECIS)

High-resolution limited area model driven at its lateral and High-resolution limited area model driven at its lateral and sea-surface boundaries by output from HadCMsea-surface boundaries by output from HadCM

Formulation identical to HadAMFormulation identical to HadAM

Grid : 0.44° x 0.44°Grid : 0.44° x 0.44°

One-way nestingOne-way nesting

Climate change simulations performed by the Hadley Climate change simulations performed by the Hadley Centre using HadRM2 for the Indian regionCentre using HadRM2 for the Indian region

HadRM3H as well as PRECIS installed at IITM; Climate HadRM3H as well as PRECIS installed at IITM; Climate change simulations and scenario development at an change simulations and scenario development at an advanced stage by using PRECIS at IITMadvanced stage by using PRECIS at IITM

Model OrographyModel OrographyGCMGCM RCMRCM

HadRM2 scenariosHadRM2 scenarios

Two experiments : Control (1990 GHG Two experiments : Control (1990 GHG Forcing) and IS92a scenario (2041-60)Forcing) and IS92a scenario (2041-60)

Each experiment has 20 years dataEach experiment has 20 years data Monthly and Daily data on various Monthly and Daily data on various

parametersparameters Regridded data with uniform horizontal Regridded data with uniform horizontal

grid spacinggrid spacing Spatial means for administrative units Spatial means for administrative units

(states)(states)

Indian Indian Summer Summer Monsoon Monsoon Simulations Simulations by HadRM2by HadRM2

All-India Mean Monthly All-India Mean Monthly RainfallRainfall

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GHG (2041-60)

State-wise mean monsoon State-wise mean monsoon precipitation change scenarios : precipitation change scenarios :

HadRM2HadRM2

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Indian Annual Indian Annual Surface Surface Temperature Temperature Simulations by Simulations by HadRM2HadRM2

State-wise Mean Annual Temperature State-wise Mean Annual Temperature Change Scenarios : HadRM2Change Scenarios : HadRM2

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Simulation of Monsoon Simulation of Monsoon Depressions/Cyclonic Storms in Depressions/Cyclonic Storms in HadRM2 and Likely Future HadRM2 and Likely Future ChangesChanges

• Changes in Monsoon Changes in Monsoon Depression/Cyclonic Storm Tracks in Depression/Cyclonic Storm Tracks in GHG Scenarios.GHG Scenarios.

• Frequency of Depressions/Cyclones.Frequency of Depressions/Cyclones.• Intensity of Storms.Intensity of Storms.

Criteria adopted for the identification of cyclonic storms

(this includes severe storms and monsoon depressions)

At least 2 At least 2 daysdays

DurationDuration

> 15 m/s> 15 m/sMax. Wind Max. Wind SpeedSpeed

< -5hPa< -5hPaSLP SLP DepartureDeparture

Local Local MinimumMinimum

Sea level Sea level Pressure Pressure (SLP)(SLP)

A typical Monsoon Depression as simulated in the regional modelA typical Monsoon Depression as simulated in the regional model

Monsoon Monsoon Depression Depression Tracks as Tracks as simulated in simulated in HadRM2 control HadRM2 control and GHG and GHG ExperimentsExperiments

Pre and Post-Pre and Post-Monsoon Monsoon Cyclonic Storms Cyclonic Storms and likely and likely Changes in GHG Changes in GHG RunsRuns

Frequency of monthly cyclonic disturbances (Max intensity in m/s) as simulated by HadRM2 for 2041-60

NATCOM Workshop, IIM NATCOM Workshop, IIM Ahmedabad, 22.7.2003Ahmedabad, 22.7.2003

Likely Changes in Extreme Rainfall and TMAX/TMIN

Temperatures in India

HadRM2 Projections (2041-60) of Rainfall HadRM2 Projections (2041-60) of Rainfall IntensityIntensity

Change in Annual number of rainy daysChange in Annual number of rainy days Change in rainfall per rainy dayChange in rainfall per rainy day

Impact of Climate Change

on the daily Extreme Rainfall (cm) amounts in

India

Location of Stations

Considered in Extreme

Temperature Analysis

HadRM2 Projections (2041-60) of Temperature HadRM2 Projections (2041-60) of Temperature ExtremesExtremes

Change in extreme Maximum TemperatureChange in extreme Maximum Temperature Change in extreme Minimum TemperatureChange in extreme Minimum Temperature

River Basins under StudyRiver Basins under Study

Change in Monthly Rainfall in GHG Change in Monthly Rainfall in GHG ScenariosScenarios