ucl energy institute implications of wider availability of unconventional gas on china energy system...
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UCL Energy Institute
IMPLICATIONS OF WIDER AVAILABILITY OF UNCONVENTIONAL GAS ON CHINA
ENERGY SYSTEM UNDER CLIMATE CONSTRAINT SCENARIOS.
Dr Gabrial Anandarajah
UCL Energy Institute, University College [email protected]
www.ucl.ac.uk/energy
Content
• Introduction• TIAM-UCL Global Energy System Model• Scenario definitions• Results• Conclusions
Introduction
• This study develops scenarios under two different state of the world to analyze implications of unconventional gas on China energy system– With wider availability of unconventional gas. – With limited availability of unconventional
• A multi-region global energy system model (TIAM-UCL) has been used to develop the scenarios
16 Region TIAM-UCL Global Model: Overview
• TMES Integrated Assessment Model (TIAM) • Dynamic partial equilibrium model approach with objective
function minimising global welfare costs (consumer surplus + producer surplus)• Annualised capital costs, O&M costs, fuel costs, taxes/subsidies,
salvage values
• Technologically detailed bottom-up whole energy system model
• 16 regions, including explicit China region• Flexible time horizon through to 2100• Multi-emissions, plus reduced-form climate module
Reference energy system – Example
Domestic Demands
Lighting
Space Heat
Cooking
End-useDevices
Elec
Gas
Coal
Oil
ConversionandProcesstechnologyoptions
Coal
Nuclear
Gas
Renew.
Primary Supply
IND
US
TR
YT
RA
NS
PO
RT
Primary Sources
Production/Extraction Treatment/ Transport Energy Conversion Technologies
Fuels and Energy Carriers DistributionCO2, Pollutants and Waste Treatment
NUCLEARD-lithium
magnetic inertial
LWR III
HTGR III
LWR III+
HTGR IV FBR IV
run of river
mini hydro
pumping
onshore
offshore
hydro
wind
GTCC
dam
wave plant
ethanol
reforming
hydroth. liquef.
tidal
PFBCPCST SCST AFBC IGFCUCST
syngas
synfuels
COALcoal
fischer tropsch
DME product.
ethanol prod.
geo
wave
otec
solar
extract.
IGCC
H2O thermolysis
photolysis
H2 bioprod.
thermolysis
RENEWABLES
gasification
Energy End Use
CAR dme+20%eff 2 dst+10-20%eff 3 elc e95 ethdme fc gas+10-20%eff 3 hH2fc MeH2 storhH2fc gas stor hH2 ICE liq storH2/gsl/dsl/hybr 3lpg/nga 23w dst/eth/gas 3m.cycle eth/gas 2
AIRCRAFTgas/H2/ker 10km 3 ker 11kmint. ker/H2 10km 3 int. ker 11kmTRAIN freight dst/elc 2 passeng dst/elc 2SHIP dst/gas/eth 3 int. dst/fc//hfo 3BUS dst/gas/eth/met 4 elc/H2fc/lpg/nga 4 hybr dst/nga/H2 3mini dst/gas/eth 3 mini lpg/nga 3
TRUCKdme/dst/gas/eth 4 lpg/met/nga 3 mid dst/gas/eth 3 mid lpg/nga/H2 3mid H2fc gas stor mid dst hybrid SUV +LCV dme+20%eff 2dst+10-20%eff 3e95 eth dme fcgas+10-20%eff 3 H2fc MeH2 stor H2fc gas stor H2 comb liq storH2/dsl/gsl hybr 3 nga/lpg 2
BLAST FURNACEBlast furnace 2 Bl furn. coal CCS 2Basic O2 furnace Bl. furn slagFURNACESElc arc driElc arc scrapDri midrex H2Dri midrex gas CCS2Ppen hearth COKE OVENSBeehive Dry quenchingConventional Non-recov BIO IND PROCESS BagasseInd waste prodMunicipal biomBiom to biofuelsFuelwoodWastes&residuesStrawForest biom recovPlantation 2Cellul biomassProcess heat 6Other final use 8PROCESS HEAT 6ELECTROLYSIS 4
Fuel decarbon 2
Fluegas sep 3
CO2 transp 2
Fluegas treatm 6
On/off EOR/EGR
On/offs aquifer
CO2 storage
Waste treatm 3
Waste treatm 8
Waste recycl 5
Waste disp 3
CTL fischer tropsch
CHPDGen
HYDROGEN DISTRIBUTIONSTORAGE
electrolysis 4
ENERGYSTORAGE
Waste treatm
heat
Partic. control 3
DeNOx 4
DeSOx 3
CO2 capture
HEAT DISTRIBUTIONNETWORK
ELECTRICITY DISTRIBUTIONGRID
electricity
ALUMINIUM Hall-Heroult cell Inert anode cell Soderberg cellSecondary AlAluminaAMMONIACoal/oil pox CCS4Nga reform CCS2CEMENTBlast furnace Fly ash prod Portl dry kiln CCS2Portl wet kilnPortl clink, v kilnPortl preparationProcess heat kiln 6CHEMICAL Eth to ethyl dehydrDme to olefinsEthane crackerNaft/hfo/lpg crack 3Meth. to olefinsPropyl to ethyl CHLORINEDiaphr. cellMembrane cellHg cellIRON&STEELCold rol steelHot roll steelSteel cont cast Steel ingot castPelletiz. iron oreSinter. iron ore
IND MACH. DRIVENon-Fe met 5Chem ind 7Food&beverage 7Textile 7Machinery 5Non met mineral 5Pulp&paper 5Iron&steel 5Other energy use ElectrificationPULPChem cont digestChem batch digestMechan prodOther prodChem pulp&paperWaste paper to pulpPAPERConv prodCond belt dryImpulse dryingSteam boiler 4IND BOILERS5/100MW 6BOILER SAVINGInsulation 7 Steam trap 7Excess air reduc 7 Econ preheating 7 Return condens. 7 Blowdown 7 Vap recompr. 7Vent condenser 7 Coal loss reduc 7
RE
SID
. C
OM
ME
RC
IAL
COOLINGChiller 4Heat pump 7Central 4Room 2Solar absorpt.Cooking 11HEATINGBoiler 7Burner 4Heat pump 3Heat exchang 2Insulation 4Stove 3Heater 5Solar heater
WATER HEATINGWater heater 11Solar water heaterHeat pump 2LIGHTINGFluo compact FluorescentHalogenIncandescentKer lampLight diode
ELC APPLIANCES Copy print fax 5PCs server 5Refrigerator 5Fans 5Cloth driers 5Cloth washer 6Dish washer 6Freezer 5Home entert 5Home office 5Elc equipment 5RESID CHP 11
INT
ER
SE
CT
OR
AL
ELC DEVICESMotorsTransformers Generators AlternatorsInverters ConvertersSwitchs TH. DEVICESBoilers BurnersHeaters Heat exchanger Driers
Steam generatorsHeat pumps Ovens FurnacesSolar panelsFLUID DEVICESPumpsCompressorsVentilationsGas turbines Steam turbinesHydro turbinesReversible turbines
COMB ENGINESGasol engines Diesel engines Gas engines Turbo engines Stirling engines STORAGE DEVICES Batteries
light endsgas
naphtha
mid dist
VDR
fuel gas
coke
H2
jet fuel
diesel
heavy gas-oil
visbreakerer
hydrocracker
reformer
alkylation
fuel oil
deasphalterlube oil
olefins
hydrotreater
H2
debutanizer
vac. distillation
del. cocker
cat. cracker
dewaxer
del. cocker
hydrotreaterhydrotreater
Refinery
tert. prod. EOR
production
production
production
prim. production
sec. production
e. heavy oil
oil/tar sand
oil shale
conventional on/offshoreoil & NGL
OIL
lpg
gasolineblender
asphalt
solar th.
PV
PV th. film
PV conc.
CSP dish
CSP tower
CSP throug
manure
msw
On/off depl.field
ECBM
Recycle/use
Mineralisat.
NAT GAS DISTRIBUTIONPIPELINE
coalbed gas
stranded gas
natural gas
gas hydrates
production
production
production
NATURAL GASGTCC A-GTCC
GTL fischer tropsch
methanol production
CHPDG
reforming
nat gas
methanol
production
natural gas EGR
distillationcurrent av. refineryshipping
pipeline
adv. best practice refinery
obsolete av. refinery
brown coal
lignite
hard coal extraction
extraction
extraction shipping
rail open mining extraction
peat extraction
CHP
FUEL DISTRIBUTIONNETWORKS
FC 2
liquefact.
pipeline
LNG ship Rigasific.
thorium
enrichment.extractionuranium transport manufacturing
LWR IV
HWR II
LWR II
enrichment.extraction transport manufacturing
CH4 reforming hydrogen
industry w.
sugar-starch
product.ligno-cellul.
wet biom
sol. biom forest/agr w.
collect.
product.oil extract.
ferment.
gasific.
anaer. dig
pyrolysis
biogas
ferment.hydrol.
bioethanoldistillat.
bio-oil
esterif.oil crops
direct comb. coal cofiring
methanol prod.
biodiesel
biodiesel
st turb
steam turb
TIAM Model
Reg. 1 Reg. 16
Reg. ...
Reg. 2Reg. ....
Resource1Resource 2Resource 3
Module: Market for emission trading
Module: New Technologies
OPEC
Climate Module
Endogenous technology learning
Multi-region modelEach region has its own energy system
TIAM Model
Resource supply and Upstream Sector
• For each region, split into three subsectors:– Mining (characterising basic resources)– Primary energy production (extraction and basic processing)– Secondary transformation (coke production, oil refining)
• Conventional and unconventional oil and gas resources resources are modelled
• Biomass resources are modelled• Key to this sector is the trade module covering:
– Oil crude– Oil products – DST, GSL, HFO, NAP– Natural gas / LNG– Coal– Uranium– Biomass (energy crops and solid biomass)
Global supply cost curves for all natural gas by category of gas and region in 2005
Scenarios
• Two Reference Scenarios– with low gas availability (LG-REF): no climate policy is applied and
the availability of unconventional gases is limited;– with high gas availability (HG-REF): no climate policy is applied.
Unconventional gas availability is increased and production costs of some gas types slightly reduced with an exogenous learning rate;
• Two respective Low Carbon Scenarios: a global cumulative GHG emission constraint is applied in order to restrict the global temperature increase to 2oC– with low gas availability (LG-LCS): – with high has availability (HG-LCS):
Primary energy consumption in China
LG-LCS HG-LCS
• Share of coal decreases from 65% in 2005:– to 44% in LG-LCS in 2050– to 16% in HG-LCS in 2050
• Share of gas increases from 2% in 2005– to 12% in LG-LCS in 2050– to 34% in HG-LCS in 2050
• Wider availability of unconventional gas less has less impact on biomass, nuclear, wind and solar primary energy consumptions.
• Primary energy in HG-LCS is less compared to LG-LCS (why?)
Electricity generation mix
• LG Scenario– More generation
• Low carbon electricity decarbonizes end-use sectors
– Less bio-CCS• Biomass directly used in
industry sector for heating
• HG Scenario– Less generation
• Gas partly decarbonizes end-use sectors (industry)
– More bio-CCS
Sectoral emissions
• Net emissions is higher in LG-LCS– Wider availability of unconventional gas slightly increases
China’s GHG mitigation potential
• CCS captures more CO2 emissions in LG-LCS– CCS is relatively more important in LG-LCS
LG-LCS HG-LCS
Conclusions
• Wider availability of unconventional gas:– reduces coal use especially in the power sector– reduces total electricity generations– reduces primary energy use as gas is directly used
in end-use sectors– Increases bio-CCS generations– reduces CCS capacity requirements– slightly increases China’s GHG mitigation potential