regional technical forum july 15, 2014

Applying SEEM Updates, Calibration, and Measure Interaction Decisions to:

Single Family Weatherization and HVAC UES Measures

Regional Technical ForumJuly 15, 2014

Presentation Outline

• Measure Overview• Staff Highlighted Areas• Looking Ahead – Staff Recommendations• Measure Analysis• Results

• Proposed Decision

2

Measure Overview

3

Measure Measure Specifications Heating System Measure IdentifiersStarting Point Ending Point

Attic: R0-R38 < R-7 R-38 or fill cavity

Electric Forced AirElectric Zonal

Air Source Heat PumpDuctless Heat Pump

Attic: R0-R49 < R-7 R-49

Attic: R11-R38* ≥ R-7, ≤ R-11 R-38 or fill cavity

Attic: R11-R49* ≥ R-7, ≤ R-11 R-49

Attic: R19-R38 > R-11, ≤ R-19 R-38 or fill cavity

Attic: R19-R49 > R-11, ≤ R-19 R-49

Attic: R30-R49 > R-19, ≤ R-30 R-49

Attic: R38-R49 ≤ R-38 R-49

Wall: R0-R11 No insulation Fill cavity

Floor: R0-R19 < R-11 ≥ R-19

Floor: R0-R25 < R-11 ≥ R-25

Floor: R0-R30 < R-11 ≥ R-30

Measure Overview - 4

Missing, but will add: Attic R30-R38; Floor R19-R30Intentionally removed: Attic R0-R19 (Attic R0-38 is required by specs)* This is a new measure

Measure Measure Specifications Heating System Measure IdentifiersStarting Point Ending Point

Window: Single-u30 Single Pane ≤ u-30

Electric Forced AirElectric Zonal

Air Source Heat PumpDuctless Heat Pump

Window: Double-u30 Double Pane Metal Frame

≤ u-30

Window: u35-u30 Std. Practice ≤ u-30Window: Single-u22 Single Pane ≤ u-22Window: Double-u22 Double Pane

Metal Frame≤ u-22

Window: u35-u22 Std. Practice ≤ u-22Infiltration Reduction* Pre-blower door Post-blower door

ASHP Upgrade Std. Practice HSPF ≥ 9.0 ASHPFAF to ASHP Conversion Electric FAF Std. Practice ASHP eFAFZonal to DHP Conversion Electric Zonal DHP in main area eZonalASHP PTCS CC&S Std. Practice PTCS CC&S ASHPDuct Tightness Std. Practice PTCS Ducts eFAF & ASHP

Measure Overview - 5

Missing, but will add: Zonal to ASHP conversion; FAF to DHP conversion (after BPA/Ecotope proposal)

* Changed from kWh/0.1ΔACHn/ft2 to kWh/ΔCFM50

Staff Highlighted Areas• Results may not be intuitive

– It’s difficult to conceptualize the compounding effects on savings of the new version of SEEM, calibration (Phases I and II), and Option 3. These paths, chosen by the RTF over the last few years, make sense, but the results may not (at first).

• Calibration is intended to mimic results of an impact evaluation• Option 3 is intended to make savings additive and correct long-

term– Staff has investigated many of these non-intuitive results.

This has been useful QC. • Cooling Savings

– Still uncalibrated, but now cooling savings make up a large percentage of most of the measures with heat pump heating systems.

Staff Highlights - 6

Our JourneyStaff Highlights - 7

SEEM Calibration

Phase IPhase II“Option 3”

More Data?Option 3

Uo-based

Are we there yet?

LMI, Old Calibration, Old SEEM

RTF Staff RecommendationsConclusion• Many results look reasonable, but there are some weird ones, too (e.g. very

low/negative floor insulation savings). What should be done about the weird results, if anything?– We think we’ve followed the previous decisions correctly.

Recommendations• Heating Savings – Staff recommends either

A. Accepting the proposed values as is, even though they’re weird, because they are an outcome of the decisions the RTF has already made (and because we’ve acknowledged things aren’t perfect, but close on average)

– We would still need a solution to the cooling savings issue for heat pump housesB. Pursuing a reasonable, and well-thought out solution to fix the “weird” values

– See next slide for a possible solution

• Cooling Savings – Staff is still looking for ideas…• Measure Category – These measures should be moved to provisional or planning:

• PTCS Duct Sealing– BPA evaluation still not finished, but preliminary results cause us to question current savings.

• PTCS Commissioning, Controls, and Sizing– Need to research baseline and efficient-case (see earlier agenda item)

Recommendations - 8

Possible Solution:Tweak How Option 3 Divvies Savings

• This mostly fixes the low/negative floor insulation savings issue.– The Phase I calibration is causing much of this issue. – The calibration is a broad tool, and it looks like we’ve tried to use it

too finely.

Tweak How Option 3 Divvies Savings:

– is currently LMI savings, calibrated using Phase I and Phase II.– Instead, if we use uncalibrated values for , we’ll avoid negative values.

Recommendations - 9

Recommendations - 10

Proposed Solution:Tweak How Option 3 Divvies Savings

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

0.10 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.18 0.20 0.22 0.24

Heati

ng E

nerg

y U

se E

stim

ate

(kw

h/yr

)

Uo (both)

2200c Prototype; HZ1; Heat Pump

Floor SEEMAttic SEEMWall SEEMInfiltration SEEMFloor Phase IAttic Phase IWall Phase IInfiltration Phase I

Recommendations - 11

• Part “I” on its own, may cause heat pump conversion savings to dominate the “divvying up” (uncalibrated SEEM 69/64 heat pump conversion savings can be huge)

• Staff will double-check that this is not an issue.

Proposed Solution:Tweak How Option 3 Divvies Savings

Measure UES Analysis and Results

12

WorkbooksAnalysis - 13

Savings Analysis Workbook:

“SEEMruns_SingleFamilyExistingHVACandWeatherization_all.xlsm”

Wx UES Measure Workbook:

“ResSFWx_v3_Proposed.xlsm”

HVAC UES Measure Workbook:

“ResSFHVAC_v1_Proposed.xlsm”

PTCS Ducts SF Measure Workbook (provisional):

“tbd.xlsm”

PTCS CC&S Measure Workbook (provisional):

“tbd.xlsm”

Key Drivers of Savings Calculations• SEEM

– Updated with improved infiltration modeling• Phase I Calibration

– Aligns SEEM heating energy use output with RBSA houses with well-known heating energy use

• Phase II Calibration– Aligns SEEM heating energy use with program-eligible houses,

making adjustments for partially occupied and unoccupied houses, non-electric fuels, etc.

• Measure Interactions: Option 3– Modifies the “last-measure-in” method to take into account

starting point of RBSA houses. This allows measures to be additive.

• Heating system type is a measure identifier

Analysis - 14

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35

Adju

stm

ent F

acto

r

Uo (both)

SEEM Phase 1 Calibration Factors

eFAF or Zonal Heating Zone 1



HP or Gas FAF Heating Zone 1



DHP Heating Zone 1

DHP Heating Zone 2

DHP Heating Zone 3

Analysis - 15

Adjustment factors are to be applied to the heating energy use output of RTF standard SEEM runs (69F/64F).

Phase II Adjustments

• These adjustment factors are applied to the Phase I-adjusted heating energy use to determine a) heating energy use, and b) non-electric heat consumption (in kWh/yr).

Analysis - 16

1 75% 15%2 72% 13%3 72% 13%1 76% 13%2 72% 13%3 85% 0%

Electric Heating Adjustment

Non-Electric Heat Adjustment

eFAF, Zonal, HP, or Gas FAF

DHP

EquipmentHeating

Zone

Measure Interactions - Option 3

• Methodology– Do the following for each characteristic scenario* in the RBSA, then weight

measure results:• Calculate “Total Actual Savings” where baseline = characteristic scenario, efficient-

case = full measure package.• For each individual measure in the characteristic scenario, calculate “LMI Savings”

where baseline = full measure package without the measure, efficient-case = full measure package.

• Then, calculate the characteristic scenario savings for the measure (example: attics):

* Houses in the RBSA were binned into ~100 unique “characteristic scenarios”. Each characteristic scenario represents the efficiency of the house (Attic, Wall, and Floor insulation, Window efficiency, and Heating system). Many houses in the RBSA share the same characteristic scenario definition, this simplifies the analysis.

Analysis - 17

Measure Interactions - Option 3

Full Measure Package(Defining efficiency levels)Attic: R-38Walls: R-11Floors: R-25Windows: u-0.30Infiltration: 0.35 ACHnDuct Tightness: PTCSDuct Insulation: ExistingHeat Pump HSPF: 9.0HP CC&S: PTCS

Analysis - 18

Limit on Full Measure Package(Maximum efficiency of starting point)

Attic: R-19Walls: R-0Floors: R-0Windows: Double Pane Metal FrameInfiltration: 0.35 ACHnDuct Tightness: n/aDuct Insulation: n/aHeat Pump HSPF: n/aHP CC&S: n/a

The analysis stopped short of bringing all RBSA houses up to the full measure package level – houses with moderate existing levels of insulation did not receive the full measure package levels (example: Existing R30 in the attics remained).

Heating System as Identifier – Savings LogicAnalysis - 19

• Heat Pump Logic, Example using fake numbersFAF (without HP in package)

LMI LMI * RatioAtttic 2700 2500Wall 1800 1667Floor 900 833Actual Total Savings 5000Ratio: Actual/sum(LMI) 0.93

HPLMI LMI * Ratio

Atttic 1500 1250Wall 1000 833Floor 500 417Actual Total Savings 2500Ratio: Actual/sum(LMI) 0.83

FAF (with HP in package)LMI LMI * Ratio

Atttic 1500 2100Wall 1000 1400Floor 500 700HP conversion 2000 2800Actual Total Savings 7000Ratio: Actual/sum(LMI) 1.4

Measure Heating System SavingsAttic FAF 2500Wall FAF 1667Floor FAF 833HP Conv FAF 2800Attic ASHP 1250Wall ASHP 833Floor ASHP 417

Savings Table

Other Things to Note

• Measures with DHP heating systems use characteristic scenarios for zonal houses.– This is because there aren’t enough DHP houses

in the RBSA to determine characteristic scenarios.

• Analysis excludes electronic t-stats (zonal houses) and GSHP’s.

Analysis - 20

Results

21

Heating Savings:Attic Insulation

22

-

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

Attic:

R0-R

38Atti

c:R0

-R49

Attic:

R11-

R38

Attic:

R11-

R49

Attic:

R19-

R38

Attic:

R19-

R49

Attic:

R30-

R49

Attic:

R38-

R49

Attic:

R0-R

38Atti

c:R0

-R49

Attic:

R11-

R38

Attic:

R11-

R49

Attic:

R19-

R38

Attic:

R19-

R49

Attic:

R30-

R49

Attic:

R38-

R49

Attic:

R0-R

38Atti

c:R0

-R49

Attic:

R11-

R38

Attic:

R11-

R49

Attic:

R19-

R38

Attic:

R19-

R49

Attic:

R30-

R49

Attic:

R38-

R49

Attic:

R0-R

38Atti

c:R0

-R49

Attic:

R11-

R38

Attic:

R11-

R49

Attic:

R19-

R38

Attic:

R19-

R49

Attic:

R30-

R49

Attic:

R38-

R49

Electric FAF Electric Zonal Heat Pump DHP

Savi

ngs p

er U

nit (

kWh/

sq.ft

. per

yea

r)Attic Insulation - Heating Zone 1 Phase 1

Phase 1 & 2Phase 1 & 2 and Option 3 (Proposed)Existing Values

23

-

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

Attic:

R0-R

38Atti

c:R0

-R49

Attic:

R11-

R38

Attic:

R11-

R49

Attic:

R19-

R38

Attic:

R19-

R49

Attic:

R30-

R49

Attic:

R38-

R49

Attic:

R0-R

38Atti

c:R0

-R49

Attic:

R11-

R38

Attic:

R11-

R49

Attic:

R19-

R38

Attic:

R19-

R49

Attic:

R30-

R49

Attic:

R38-

R49

Attic:

R0-R

38Atti

c:R0

-R49

Attic:

R11-

R38

Attic:

R11-

R49

Attic:

R19-

R38

Attic:

R19-

R49

Attic:

R30-

R49

Attic:

R38-

R49

Attic:

R0-R

38Atti

c:R0

-R49

Attic:

R11-

R38

Attic:

R11-

R49

Attic:

R19-

R38

Attic:

R19-

R49

Attic:

R30-

R49

Attic:

R38-

R49


Savi

ngs p

er U

nit (

kWh/

sq.ft

. per

yea



24

-

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

Attic:

R0-R

38Atti

c:R0

-R49

Attic:

R11-

R38

Attic:

R11-

R49

Attic:

R19-

R38

Attic:

R19-

R49

Attic:

R30-

R49

Attic:

R38-

R49

Attic:

R0-R

38Atti

c:R0

-R49

Attic:

R11-

R38

Attic:

R11-

R49

Attic:

R19-

R38

Attic:

R19-

R49

Attic:

R30-

R49

Attic:

R38-

R49

Attic:

R0-R

38Atti

c:R0

-R49

Attic:

R11-

R38

Attic:

R11-

R49

Attic:

R19-

R38

Attic:

R19-

R49

Attic:

R30-

R49

Attic:

R38-

R49

Attic:

R0-R

38Atti

c:R0

-R49

Attic:

R11-

R38

Attic:

R11-

R49

Attic:

R19-

R38

Attic:

R19-

R49

Attic:

R30-

R49

Attic:

R38-

R49


Savi

ngs p

er U

nit (

kWh/

sq.ft

. per

yea



25

Heating Savings:Wall & Floor Insulation

26

-

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

Wal

l:R0-

R11

Floo

r:R0-

R19

Floo

r:R0-

R25

Floo

r:R0-

R30

Wal

l:R0-

R11

Floo

r:R0-

R19

Floo

r:R0-

R25

Floo

r:R0-

R30

Wal

l:R0-

R11

Floo

r:R0-

R19

Floo

r:R0-

R25

Floo

r:R0-

R30

Wal

l:R0-

R11

Floo

r:R0-

R19

Floo

r:R0-

R25

Floo

r:R0-

R30


Savi

ngs p

er U

nit (

kWh/

sq.ft

. per

yea

r)Wall & Floor Insulation- Heating Zone 1 Phase 1


27

28

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

0.10 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.18 0.20 0.22 0.24

Heati

ng E

nerg

y U

se E

stim

ate

(kw

h/yr

)

Uo (both)



(0.50)

-

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

Wal

l:R0-

R11

Floo

r:R0-

R19

Floo

r:R0-

R25

Floo

r:R0-

R30

Wal

l:R0-

R11

Floo

r:R0-

R19

Floo

r:R0-

R25

Floo

r:R0-

R30

Wal

l:R0-

R11

Floo

r:R0-

R19

Floo

r:R0-

R25

Floo

r:R0-

R30

Wal

l:R0-

R11

Floo

r:R0-

R19

Floo

r:R0-

R25

Floo

r:R0-

R30


Savi

ngs p

er U

nit (

kWh/

sq.ft

. per

yea



29

(0.50)

-

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

Wal

l:R0-

R11

Floo

r:R0-

R19

Floo

r:R0-

R25

Floo

r:R0-

R30

Wal

l:R0-

R11

Floo

r:R0-

R19

Floo

r:R0-

R25

Floo

r:R0-

R30

Wal

l:R0-

R11

Floo

r:R0-

R19

Floo

r:R0-

R25

Floo

r:R0-

R30

Wal

l:R0-

R11

Floo

r:R0-

R19

Floo

r:R0-

R25

Floo

r:R0-

R30


Savi

ngs p

er U

nit (

kWh/

sq.ft

. per

yea



30

Heating Savings:Windows

31

-

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

45.00

Win

dow

:Sin

gle-

u30

Win

dow

:Dou

ble-

u30

Win

dow

:u35

-u30

Win

dow

:Sin

gle-

u22

Win

dow

:Dou

ble-

u22

Win

dow

:u35

-u22

Win

dow

:Sin

gle-

u30

Win

dow

:Dou

ble-

u30

Win

dow

:u35

-u30

Win

dow

:Sin

gle-

u22

Win

dow

:Dou

ble-

u22

Win

dow

:u35

-u22

Win

dow

:Sin

gle-

u30

Win

dow

:Dou

ble-

u30

Win

dow

:u35

-u30

Win

dow

:Sin

gle-

u22

Win

dow

:Dou

ble-

u22

Win

dow

:u35

-u22

Win

dow

:Sin

gle-

u30

Win

dow

:Dou

ble-

u30

Win

dow

:u35

-u30

Win

dow

:Sin

gle-

u22

Win

dow

:Dou

ble-

u22

Win

dow

:u35

-u22


Savi

ngs p

er U

nit (

kWh/

sq.ft

. per

yea

r)Windows - Heating Zone 1 Phase 1


32

-

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

45.00

Win

dow

:Sin

gle-

u30

Win

dow

:Dou

ble-

u30

Win

dow

:u35

-u30

Win

dow

:Sin

gle-

u22

Win

dow

:Dou

ble-

u22

Win

dow

:u35

-u22

Win

dow

:Sin

gle-

u30

Win

dow

:Dou

ble-

u30

Win

dow

:u35

-u30

Win

dow

:Sin

gle-

u22

Win

dow

:Dou

ble-

u22

Win

dow

:u35

-u22

Win

dow

:Sin

gle-

u30

Win

dow

:Dou

ble-

u30

Win

dow

:u35

-u30

Win

dow

:Sin

gle-

u22

Win

dow

:Dou

ble-

u22

Win

dow

:u35

-u22

Win

dow

:Sin

gle-

u30

Win

dow

:Dou

ble-

u30

Win

dow

:u35

-u30

Win

dow

:Sin

gle-

u22

Win

dow

:Dou

ble-

u22

Win

dow

:u35

-u22


Savi

ngs p

er U

nit (

kWh/

sq.ft

. per

yea



33

-

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

45.00

Win

dow

:Sin

gle-

u30

Win

dow

:Dou

ble-

u30

Win

dow

:u35

-u30

Win

dow

:Sin

gle-

u22

Win

dow

:Dou

ble-

u22

Win

dow

:u35

-u22

Win

dow

:Sin

gle-

u30

Win

dow

:Dou

ble-

u30

Win

dow

:u35

-u30

Win

dow

:Sin

gle-

u22

Win

dow

:Dou

ble-

u22

Win

dow

:u35

-u22

Win

dow

:Sin

gle-

u30

Win

dow

:Dou

ble-

u30

Win

dow

:u35

-u30

Win

dow

:Sin

gle-

u22

Win

dow

:Dou

ble-

u22

Win

dow

:u35

-u22

Win

dow

:Sin

gle-

u30

Win

dow

:Dou

ble-

u30

Win

dow

:u35

-u30

Win

dow

:Sin

gle-

u22

Win

dow

:Dou

ble-

u22

Win

dow

:u35

-u22


Savi

ngs p

er U

nit (

kWh/

sq.ft

. per

yea



34

Heating Savings:Infiltration and Heat Pumps

35

-

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

ElectricFAF

ElectricZonal

HeatPump

DHP ElectricFAF

ElectricZonal

HeatPump

DHP ElectricFAF

ElectricZonal

HeatPump

DHP

Heating Zone 1 Heating Zone 2 Heating Zone 3

Savi

ngs p

er U

nit (

kWh/

ΔCFM

50pe

r yea

r)Infiltration Reduction Phase 1


36

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Heat

Pum

p:FA

F-8.

5HSP

F

Heat

Pum

p:Zo

nal-D

HP

HP C

C&S:

Stan

dard

Prac

tice-

PTCS

Heat

Pum

p:8.

5HSP

F-9.

0HSP

F

PTCS

Duc

t Sea

ling

(FAF

)

PTCS

Duc

t Sea

ling

(HP)

Heat

Pum

p:FA

F-8.

5HSP

F

Heat

Pum

p:Zo

nal-D

HP

HP C

C&S:

Stan

dard

Prac

tice-

PTCS

Heat

Pum

p:8.

5HSP

F-9.

0HSP

F

PTCS

Duc

t Sea

ling

(FAF

)

PTCS

Duc

t Sea

ling

(HP)

Heat

Pum

p:FA

F-8.

5HSP

F

Heat

Pum

p:Zo

nal-D

HP

HP C

C&S:

Stan

dard

Prac

tice-

PTCS

Heat

Pum

p:8.

5HSP

F-9.

0HSP

F

PTCS

Duc

t Sea

ling

(FAF

)

PTCS

Duc

t Sea

ling

(HP)


Savi

ngs p

er H

ouse

(kW

h/pe

r yea

r)Duct Sealing & Heat Pump Measures Phase 1


37

Cooling Savings

• Historically, cooling savings have been– Uncalibrated– A small fraction of heating savings

• Now, cooling savings are– Still uncalibrated– Still a small fraction of heating savings

• EXCEPT: Heat pumps• The adjustments that caused heat pump savings to fall

brought them closer to the unadjusted cooling savings.

38

39Cooling Savings as Percentage of total (heating + cooling) savings

MeasureElec. FAF

Elec. Zonal

Heat Pump DHP

Elec. FAF

Elec. Zonal

Heat Pump DHP

Elec. FAF

Elec. Zonal

Heat Pump DHP

Attic:R0-R38 5% 3% 52% 12% 4% 2% 36% 10% 2% 1% 18% 4%Attic:R0-R49 5% 3% 51% 12% 4% 2% 36% 10% 2% 1% 18% 4%Attic:R11-R38 2% 2% 34% 9% 3% 2% 35% 10% 2% 1% 22% 4%Attic:R11-R49 2% 2% 34% 9% 3% 2% 35% 10% 2% 1% 22% 4%Attic:R19-R38 2% 1% 32% 8% 3% 2% 34% 9% 2% 1% 22% 4%Attic:R19-R49 2% 1% 31% 8% 3% 2% 34% 9% 1% 1% 21% 4%Attic:R30-R49 2% 1% 29% 7% 2% 1% 32% 8% 1% 1% 19% 4%Attic:R38-R49 2% 1% 30% 7% 2% 1% 33% 8% 1% 1% 20% 3%Wall:R0-R11 1% 0% 12% 2% 1% 0% 12% 2% 0% 0% 3% 0%Floor:R0-R19 -2% -1% 260% -6% -4% -2% 54% -8% -2% -1% 132% -4%Floor:R0-R25 -2% -1% 491% -6% -3% -1% 64% -7% -2% -1% 201% -4%Floor:R0-R30 -2% -1% 981% -6% -3% -1% 72% -7% -2% -1% 292% -4%Window:Single-u30 2% 1% 21% 6% 2% 1% 21% 6% 1% 1% 11% 2%Window:Double-u30 5% 3% 39% 13% 5% 3% 35% 14% 3% 2% 21% 7%Window:u35-u30 1% 0% 12% 3% 1% 1% 12% 3% 0% 0% 4% 1%Window:Single-u22 2% 1% 20% 6% 2% 1% 20% 6% 1% 0% 10% 2%Window:Double-u22 4% 2% 36% 12% 4% 3% 32% 13% 2% 1% 19% 6%Window:u35-u22 1% 1% 16% 4% 1% 1% 17% 4% 1% 0% 7% 1%Infiltration:cfm50 reduction 0% 0% 6% 0% 1% 0% 9% 1% 0% 0% -1% -1%Heat Pump:8.5HSPF-9.0HSPF 27% 39% 26%Heat Pump:FAF-8.5HSPF -30% -54% -24%Heat Pump:Zonal-DHP -13% -17% -22%HP CC&S:StandardPractice-PTCS 0% 0% 0%DuctTightness:StandardPractice-PTCS2% 14% 2% 12% 1% 4%


Measure Costs

40

41

$-

$0.20

$0.40

$0.60

$0.80

$1.00

$1.20

$1.40

$1.60

ATTICR0 -R38

ATTICR0 -R49

ATTICR11 -R38

ATTICR11 -R49

ATTICR19 -R38

ATTICR19 -R49

ATTICR30 -R49

ATTICR38 -R49

WALLR0 -R11

FLOORR0 -R19

FLOORR0 -R25

FLOORR0 -R30

Mea

sure

Cos

t per

Squ

are

Foot

Measure Cost - Attic, Wall, FloorProposed Existing

The cost for infiltration reduction remains unchanged: $0.073/CFM50.

42

$-

$5.00

$10.00

$15.00

$20.00

$25.00

$30.00

Window:Single -

u30

Window:Double -

u30

Window:u35 - u30

Window:Single -

u22

Window:Double -

u22

Window:u35 - u22

Mea

sure

Cos

t per

Squ

are

Foot

Measure Cost - WindowsProposed Existing

$81 $51 $-

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

$4,000

$4,500

Heat Pump:8.5 to 9 HSPF

Heat Pump:FAF w/CAC to

HP

Heat Pump:FAF w/o CAC

to HP

HP CC&S -PTCS

Duct Sealing -PTCS

Heat Pump:Zonal - DHP(no change)

Mea

sure

Cos

tMeasure Cost - Heat Pumps and Ducts

Proposed Cost Existing Cost

43

Measure Cost-Effectiveness

44

45Proposed Measure Cost-EffectivenessGreen=Cost-effective; Red=Not Cost-effective (Values are TRC B/C Ratio’s)

Elec. FAF

Elec. Zonal

Heat Pump DHP

Elec. FAF

Elec. Zonal

Heat Pump DHP

Elec. FAF

Elec. Zonal

Heat Pump DHP

ATTIC R0 - R38 4.1 2.9 2 4.3 5.9 4.6 3.3 6.2 7.8 6.3 4.6 8.3ATTIC R0 - R49 3.7 2.6 1.8 3.9 5.3 4.1 2.9 5.5 7 5.6 4.1 7.4ATTIC R11 - R38 1.5 1 0.5 1 1.4 1 0.6 1.1 1.4 1 0.6 1.2ATTIC R11 - R49 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.9 1.3 0.9 0.6 1 1.3 1 0.6 1.2ATTIC R19 - R38 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.6ATTIC R19 - R49 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.6ATTIC R30 - R49 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.3ATTIC R38 - R49 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1WALL R0 - R11 2.7 1.9 0.9 1.9 2.7 2 1.1 2.2 2.8 2.4 1.6 2.7FLOOR R0 - R19 1.1 1.2 0 1.1 0.7 0.9 0 1 1 1.2 0 1.5FLOOR R0 - R25 1.3 1.3 0 1.2 0.8 1 0 1.1 1.2 1.4 0 1.6FLOOR R0 - R30 1.4 1.4 0 1.3 0.9 1.1 0 1.2 1.3 1.5 0 1.7Window : Single - u30 1.3 0.7 0.5 0.8 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.9 1.4 1 0.7 1.2Window : Double - u30 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.6Window : u35 - u30 1 0.7 0.4 0.6 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.8 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.9Window : Single - u22 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.7 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.8 1.2 0.9 0.6 1.1Window : Double - u22 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6Window : u35 - u22 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.6CFM 50 Reduction 11.2 10.2 3.7 8.9 11.8 11.3 4.5 10.5 10.8 11 4.6 11.7Heat Pump: 8.5 to 9 HSPF NA NA 2.3 NA NA NA 1.7 NA NA NA 1.4 NAHeat Pump: FAF w /CAC to HP 2 NA NA NA 1.7 NA NA NA 1.4 NA NA NAHP CC&S - PTCS NA NA 2.8 NA NA NA 4.4 NA NA NA 5.4 NADuct Sealing - PTCS 2.1 NA 1.4 NA 2.8 NA 2.3 NA 3.2 NA 2.8 NA

MeasureHeating Zone 1 Heating Zone 2 Heating Zone 3

46

Measure HZ1 HZ2 HZ3Heat Pump: FAF w /o CAC to HP (CZ1) 1 0.8 0.7Heat Pump: FAF w /o CAC to HP (CZ2) 0.9 0.7 0.5Heat Pump: FAF w /o CAC to HP (CZ3) 0.7 0.5 0.3

Heat Pump: Zonal - DHP (CZ1) 0.9 0.9 0.7Heat Pump: Zonal - DHP (CZ2) 1 1 0.8Heat Pump: Zonal - DHP (CZ3) 1.1 1.1 0.9

Proposed Measure Cost-EffectivenessGreen=Cost-effective; Red=Not Cost-effective (Values are TRC B/C Ratio’s)

“Heat Pump: FAF w/o CAC to HP” measures are currently run in ProCost as “retrofit” measures. However, their costs make them look more like a “lost opportunity measure”:

Measure Cost (w/o CAC) = Heat Pump Installation Cost – FAF Replacement CostMeasure Cost (w/CAC) = Heat Pump Installation Cost – FAF Replacement Cost–CAC Cost

Should they be run as a “lost-opportunity” measure with the current cost structure?

Or, should they be run as a “retrofit” with an estimated lifetime cost structure (full capital cost today, avoided FAF and CAC replacement cost at some time in the future)?

47Changes to Cost-effectivenessMeasure

Elec. FAF

Elec. Zonal

Heat Pump

Elec. FAF

Elec. Zonal

Heat Pump

Elec. FAF

Elec. Zonal

Heat Pump

ATTIC R0 - R38 Same Same Same Same Same Same Same Same SameATTIC R0 - R49 Same Same Same Same Same Same Same Same SameATTIC R11 - R38 New New New New New New New New NewATTIC R11 - R49 New New New New New New New New NewATTIC R19 - R38 Dow n Dow n Dow n Dow n Dow n Dow n Dow n Dow n Dow nATTIC R19 - R49 Dow n Dow n Dow n Dow n Dow n Dow n Dow n Dow n Dow nATTIC R30 - R49 Dow n Dow n Same Dow n Dow n Dow n Dow n Dow n Dow nATTIC R38 - R49 Dow n Dow n Same Dow n Dow n Dow n Dow n Dow n Dow nWALL R0 - R11 Same Same Dow n Same Same Same Same Same SameFLOOR R0 - R19 Same Same Dow n Dow n Dow n Dow n Same Same Dow nFLOOR R0 - R25 New New New New New New New New NewFLOOR R0 - R30 Same Same Dow n Dow n Same Dow n Same Same Dow nWindow: Single - u30 Same Dow n Dow n Same Dow n Dow n Same Same Dow nWindow: Double - u30 Dow n Dow n Same Dow n Dow n Dow n Dow n Dow n Dow nWindow: u35 - u30 Same Dow n Dow n Same Dow n Dow n Same Dow n Dow nWindow: Single - u22 Same Dow n Dow n Same Dow n Dow n Same Dow n Dow nWindow: Double - u22 Dow n Dow n Same Dow n Dow n Dow n Dow n Dow n Dow nWindow: u35 - u22 Dow n Dow n Dow n Dow n Dow n Dow n Dow n Dow n Dow nCFM 50 Reduction Same Same Same Same Same Same Same Same SameHeat Pump: 8.5 to 9 HSPF New New Same New New Same New New SameHeat Pump: FAF to 9 HSPF Same New New Same New New Same New NewHP CC&S - PTCS New New Same New New Same New New SameDuct Sealing - PTCS Same New Same Same New Same Same New Same


48Changes to TRC B/C Ratio’s

Measure HZ1 HZ2 HZ3Heat Pump: FAF w /o CAC to HP (CZ1) Same Dow n Dow nHeat Pump: FAF w /o CAC to HP (CZ2) Dow n Dow n Dow nHeat Pump: FAF w /o CAC to HP (CZ3) Dow n Dow n Dow nHeat Pump: Zonal - DHP (CZ1) Dow n Dow n SameHeat Pump: Zonal - DHP (CZ2) Same Same SameHeat Pump: Zonal - DHP (CZ3) Same Same Dow n

49

Discussion on Cooling

• Issue: The uncalibrated cooling savings are a significant portion of measure savings for measures with heat pumps.

• Ideas?

Decision“I ____ move the RTF, for the Single Family Weatherization and HVAC measures,

• For heating savings (Pick One): • Adopt as proposed,• Pursue the tweak to Option 3 using uncalibrated LMI savings, OR• Pursue the following alternative path ____.

• Do the following for cooling savings _______, • For ASHP conversion measures (Pick One):

– Set costs and avoided electric costs using “lost opportunity” assumptions, – Set costs and avoided electric costs using “retrofit” assumptions, OR– Continue using “lost opportunity” costs and “retrofit” avoided electric costs.

• Change PTCS Duct sealing measures’ status to Under Review.

50

51

Additional Slides For Reference

52

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

0.10 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.18 0.20 0.22 0.24

Heati

ng E

nerg

y U

se E

stim

ate

(kw

h/yr

)

Uo (both)



53

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45

Adju

stm

ent F

acto

r Val

ue

Heati

ng E

nerg

y U

se (k

Wh/

yr)

House Uo (includes infiltration)

Zonal vs. DHP 1344 prototype in HZ1 Measures: R-0 to fully insulated Attics, Walls, Floors. Single to U-30 Windows. Infiiltration Reduction

DHP SEEM

DHP Phase 1

Zonal SEEM

Zonal Phase 1

Zonal Factor

DHP Factor

regional technical forum july 15, 2014

Documents

r0r19 r

r0r38 r

r0r49 r

r0r30 r

r19r38 r

r19r49 r

r38r49 r

r0r25 r