remote sensing based drought tolerant maize targeting in ssa
DESCRIPTION
Remote sensing –Beyond images Mexico 14-15 December 2013 The workshop was organized by CIMMYT Global Conservation Agriculture Program (GCAP) and funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF), the Mexican Secretariat of Agriculture, Livestock, Rural Development, Fisheries and Food (SAGARPA), the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), CGIAR Research Program on Maize, the Cereal System Initiative for South Asia (CSISA) and the Sustainable Modernization of the Traditional Agriculture (MasAgro)TRANSCRIPT
Remote sensing based drought tolerant maize targeting in SSA
Remote sensing – Beyond Images
Kai Sonder, Jill Cairns, Olaf Erenstein, Girma Tesfahun, Kindie Tesfaye, Victor Hernandez, Dave HodsonMexico City, 14-15.12.2013
DTMA project: Drought tolerant maize for Africa
• Funded by Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation• 3rd phase currently• CIMMYT and IITA and many partners • 13 countries in West, East and Southern Africa• Develop drought tolerant maize germplasm• Strengthen small seed companies• Make DT materials available to farmers
Mali
Ghana
Benin
EthiopiaNigeria
Angola Mozambique
Kenya
Zimbabwe
Zambia
Tanzania
Malawi
Uganda
WHY do this?•Ex ante impact assessment•Recommendations on areas for upscaling•Fit breeding program to areas not currently covered
HOW to target the areas where DT material would be most useful to farmers?
• Ideally use high res daily rainfall data but not really available in SSA • Failed seasons probability• Drought indices based on monthly data• Remote sensed data
Probability of failed seasons
Developed by Peter JonesBased on a climate generator (MARKSIM)
No time seriesDoesn’t cover short or mild droughts
Thornton et al. 2006 Mapping Climate Vulnerability and Poverty in Africa.
Based on rainfall onlyCan be calculated at different time scalesMcKee et al., 1993
•Calculated for one month and three month droughts for all of SSA•Mild, Moderate, Severe, Extreme droughts classified•Using monthly CRU 3.1 data 1950-2010 (in theory 1900-2012)•Doesn’t capture fully cover short droughts•WMO recommended•Widely used
Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)
DSI (Drought Severity Index)
•Satellite image (MODIS) based (Mu et al., 2013)•Mix of MODIS based NDVI and MODIS based ET/PET•MOD16 ET/PET MOD13 NDVI •Annual and monthly and 8 day calculations possible •Time series available currently 2000 – 2011•Time series can be expanded
Mu et al. 2013
DSI Classes
DSI annual time series
Frequencies of moderate and milder droughts in Eastern Africa• Applied to SPAM 2000 maize• production areas• Redo with SPAM 2005• Calculate maize areas exposed
to different types of drought• Estimation of number of rural
population in those areas• Estimation of poor in the areas
Next steps
•Evaluate 8 day product for short term events•Validate with ground data from CIMMYT sites•Relate DTMA on farm trials to drought events •Compare performance of DT materials in different sites•Evaluate for climate risk exposure studies with socio economists
Future possibilities
•Evaluate more remote sensing sources•TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission)•New generation GPM (Global precipitation Measurement) •Soil moisture (eg ERS/MetOp, Vienna) Soil Water Index (SWI) •Combine with crop models
http://www.ipf.tuwien.ac.at/radar/index.php?go=home
THANK YOU