replacing 111 flow forecasting models with flood …€¢ each model uses own naming convention and...

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Replacing 111 flow forecasting models with Flood Modeller Pro by developing and

adapting a global templateFlood Modeller Conference 19 October 2017

About this talk

• Why replace the models?! A background to model conversion.

• Study area and key objectives

• Our approach – A global template

• Model performance

• Benefits of the approach and potential future uses

Thursday 19 October 2017

What are the models and why replace them?A background to model convergence

Why replace the models?

• What are the models?– Environment Agency models– Used for flood forecasting and warning

• Why replace them?– For use in the Future Flood Forecasting System (FFFS)– Model convergence strategy

• What are the benefits– Consistency, streamlining and cost efficiency– Flexibility and resilience– Increased opportunity for knowledge transfer and development


What are the model types?

• Three types of models are now available for use:– PDM (rainfall runoff modelling)– Flood Modeller Pro (flow routing and hydrodynamic river modelling)– Triton (Coastal modelling)

• There are seven types of non compliant models


Rainfall runoff modelling

Flow routing river modelling

Hydrodynamic river modelling

Non compliant models

MCRMNAMPRTFTCM

DODOKW MIKE11

Non compliant models

• Over 750 models require replacement


Solihull model convergenceA background to the study

Solihull model convergence

• Largest model convergence project

• River Severn and River Trent networks

• Over 150 non-compliant rainfall runoff models (MCRM)

• Over 100 non-compliant flow routing models (DODO)

• Current software built in-house


Key considerations

• Many of the models are long standing and proven to work well

• The new models need to (where possible):– Perform as well as the legacy models

– Meet the EA criteria

• Information used by duty officers requires updating


A novel approach for improving flood forecasting modelsAn overview of the global template

Previous approach

• Individual models for each reach

• Each model uses own naming convention and model structure

• Custom number of model inputs and outputs

• Summary: A complex network to replace!

• Q: Could we devise a simpler approach that uses Flood ModellerPro in a novel way?


Our new approach

• Developed a global template in Flood Modeller Pro

• Template consists of VPMC units

• Inputs fed in at QTBDYs (Observed, Ungauged PDMs)


Our new approach

• Model calibrated to observed flows at the d/s gauge

• Parameters such as reach length, attenuation and wavespeedadjusted

• Floodplain storage represented using a series of abstractions and returns


Model performance

A case study of model replacement

Trent – Model performance

• Overall performance is good

• Results are similar to or improve upon the existing routing models


New modelObservedDODO

Derwent – Model performance


• New models replicate or improve upon existing model performance



Teme – Model performance


• New models replicate or outperform the existing routing models



Benefits of this approach

Benefits of the approach (1)

• Novel and efficient use of Flood Modeller Pro

• Time efficiencies:– Run time– Development– Calibration

• Increased reliability and stability – two fundamentals for real time flood forecasting

• Consistent naming of inputs, outputs and reaches


Benefits of the approach (2)

• Standardises configuration into the new forecasting system

• Templates can be combined to represent multiple reaches in one model or tributaries entering a single reach

• Improves model understanding / conceptualisation– Understanding the concept of one model = understanding the concept of all

• Fundamentally, reduced costs and increased reliability – a double benefit


Constraints of the approach

• Unlikely to work well in isolation for complex reaches:

– Gate operations

– Backwater effects

– Reservoir catchments


Potential for future use

• Template can be applied to other catchments across the UK and wider afield

• Replacement of other non-convergent river models

• Extend coverage to new areas where forecasts are currently unavailable

– It has already been utilised to extend coverage of forecast networks on the Rea and Anker (Solihull forecasting centre) and Esk (Leeds forecasting centre)


Summary

A recap of this talk

Summary

• Replaced over 100 existing DODO flow routing models with Flood Modeller Pro

• Innovative use of Flood Modeller Pro to maximise efficiencies and enhance forecast reliability

• Ensured performance of the new models is as least as good as the legacy models

• Identified future opportunities for use of the template


Thanks for listening!

Any Questions?


For further information contact:

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replacing 111 flow forecasting models with flood …€¢ each model uses own naming convention and...

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