Research Paper: Population Growth and the Invalidity of Malthus

Advanced Placement Human Geography

Jacob L. North

Kings Valley Charter School

Reverend Thomas Malthus (1766-1834)[1] famously presented his theory of Population

growth in 1798, in his book; An Essay on the Principle of Population, predicting that in the

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POPULATION GROWTH AND THE INVALIDITY OF THOMAS MALTHUS pg.centuries following, the world’s population would grow so exponentially that the world’s

agricultural production and natural resources would be insufficient to support the world’s

population needs. The first theory of its kind at the time to hold such a claim, this issue, as

Malthus stated, would result in a rapid population decrease from famines and wars resulting from

lack of resources, and disease from overcrowded living conditions; in every country of the world.

He warned his audience to show “moral restraint” concerning having children to slow crude birth

rate, in an effort to prevent overpopulation and the factors that come with it, such as disease,

famine, war, or other disasters, that raise the crude death rate.

A scholar and economist, Malthus was educated on the processes and methods of

population dynamics. However, his theory presented in the graph on the right[1] is quite overly

pessimistic, and does not account for

several factors that can and have

disproved his theory: One is the fact

that resource production and

availability are increasing at a faster

rate than Malthus predicted, due to

tremendous advancements in

agricultural technologies and

methods that are applied to increase the physiological density of a region, since his times; The

second is the fact that the countries in Malthus’s times that were experiencing the observed up-

and-down trends of crude birth and death rate, or the Demographic Transition, shown on a graph

below[2], were in stage 2 of the transition. (Falling death rates were unheard of for the vast

majority of the world’s countries, except for some European countries, which were looking

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POPULATION GROWTH AND THE INVALIDITY OF THOMAS MALTHUS pg.forward at late stage 2 or towards stage 3 at that time). Malthus predicted that when many

countries entered and progressed through stage 2 of the Transition and beyond, where population

birth rates more greatly exceeded death rates than they had before, the world would all at once be

overwhelmed by its population.

Though population growth has been an exponential curve since the early 19th century, as

Malthus predicted, world food supplies have increased exponentially as well, greater than

population has, overall, and population growth is beginning to slow down, both of which

Malthus did not foresee. The distribution of these food supplies differs from country to country,

but sufficient supplies do exist. The reason for this is the advancement of technology during the

industrial and agricultural revolutions, new innovations improving these inventions, and the

diffusion of these ideas across the world where new ideas are integrated into the self-critical

process. Because almost every country on earth either has access to advanced agricultural

technologies and an economy based mainly on their agricultural sector (most Less-Developed

Countries), or can import the food

that they do not produce

themselves(most More-Developed

Countries), few countries in the world

today experiences negative

population growth from an idea set

out by Malthus’ theory. For these

reasons, Malthus’ theory cannot

logically be applied to modern global population trends.

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POPULATION GROWTH AND THE INVALIDITY OF THOMAS MALTHUS pg.There are some case studies that show a trend similar to what Malthus predicted,

however, such as some impoverished states in Sub-Saharan Africa. Mali, with high population

growth, very limited resources and low arable land, is home to many impoverished people that

often eat little to no food daily; over 800,000 Malians face a food crisis currently[3]. Fuel is a

hard resource to come by and process, and what little trees Mali has are quickly being stripped

from the land and burned down to for heat to cook what food they have. Deforestation and

desertification are two environmental issues resulting from this transaction. As a response to

worsening climatic conditions, families are driven to have more and more children to work on a

farm that is slowly becoming less and less productive. This positive feedback loop is threatening

Mali with the serious danger of a major drop in population from famine, which could catalyze

numerous wars and conflicts, as is the case in Kenya, another African country. Mali is one of

many isolated examples that prove that Malthus’s theory is applicable on a national or regional

scale.

Though the world is experiencing exponential growth now as many previously early

stage 2 countries move through stage 2 to early stage 3 of the DTM and high growth rates, the

natural increase rate will decrease, and the growth rate will level out over a period of time.

Malthus did not predict this decrease in the growth rate, since few countries at that time had

advanced even to late stage 2 of the DTM, so there was no common trend to observe or study at

that time.

Critics of the Theory:

Ester Boserup(1910-1999)[5] a Danish Economist, in her book, The Conditions of

Agricultural Growth, proposed the theory that agricultural production, instead of growing

arithmetically, increased when technological innovations occurred, and slightly increased at a

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POPULATION GROWTH AND THE INVALIDITY OF THOMAS MALTHUS pg.constant rate less than population as more land was made available for growing food. Her theory

showed a more accurate representation, accounting for the many advances of agricultural

technology in her time as opposed to Malthus’s. The inset

graph[5] describes agricultural innovation to increase at a

comparable rate to population, yet always above population

generously. Quoted Boserup from a letter to T.S. Houston;

“The power of ingenuity would always outmatch that of

demand”.

Other critics have developed theories that support Boserup’s, saying that a higher world

population, and consequently a larger world economy and more flow of capital, would mean

production of more food and more brains to invent new technologies that increase food

production capacity at a similar rate to population growth. Julian Simon(1932-1998) argued that

population growth directly influences economic growth, which directly influences agricultural

innovation.

Conclusion

Many people have tried to predict the direction of population dynamics, and few have

succeeded. There are many factors that influence population growth, and a majority of these

cannot be predicted with any accuracy. Boserup’s theory has a modern viewpoint, including the

demographic transition model and knowledge of improving agricultural technology, whereas

Malthus’ work is a speculative, however educated, hypothesis. Malthus’ theory is outdated, and

does not correctly depict the direction of the world population and resource availability in the

years to come. On a national scale, one can draw a parallel to some country’s situations, but only

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POPULATION GROWTH AND THE INVALIDITY OF THOMAS MALTHUS pg.when the country is geographically or economically isolated, and in other specialized situations.

For its original intents and purposes, Malthus’ theory does not correctly depict the relationship

between population growth versus resource availability.

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