RESILIENT AGRICULTURAL HOUSEHOLDS THROUGH ADAPTATION OF CLIMATE SMART AGRICULTURE PRACTICES

Dakshina Murthy Kadiyala Innovation Systems for the Drylands

Methodology - Structural Approach

Shahnila et al., 2016

Physiological Agronomic

Crop Simulation models

(process based)

Economic models

(IAT, TOAMD)

Climate Stresses

GCMsTechnology adoption

Yields, farm income, cash

flows

Climate Analysis

Number of Grids : 350Base line period : 1980-2009Mid- century period : 2040-2069RCP : 8.5Number of GCMs : 29

Indicator Weight (%)

Annual Maximum Temperature 2

Annual Minimum Temperature 4

Heat wave occurrences (days) 3

Cold wave occurrences (days) 3

Severe Heat wave occurrences (days) 5

Severe Cold wave occurrences (days) 2

CV in June rainfall(%) 5

CV in July rainfall(%) 12

Annual Precipitation 1

Monsoon rainfall 6

CV Monsoon rainfall(%) 12

Very heavy rainfall (days) 5

Dry days 5

More than 14 days of dry in monsoon 10

Wet days 5

More than 14 days of dry in monsoon 5

Number of annual rainy days 5

95th percentile rainfall 5

Hot day frequency 5

Construction of climate exposure index

Climate Analysis-Climate Exposure Index

Mandal wise climate exposure index for Baseline & Mid-century period (2040-69)under RCP 8.5

Hot -dryBaseline (1980-2009)

Mandal wise climate exposure index for baseline climate along with major crop type mapping and command areas (2015-16)

Climate Analysis-Climate Exposure Index

Farm size category Extreme High Moderate Resilient Grand Total

Labour 1575 295 32 1 1903

Large (> 7.5 ac) 9 39 172 353 573

Medium (2.6 -7.5 ac) 113 620 1580 835 3148

Small (< 2.5 ac) 303 1270 1025 178 2776

Grand Total 2000 2224 2809 1367 8400

Household Vulnerability Analysis

Adaptation Interventions

Agronomic Measures-promotion of pulses & millets, farming

systems approach, energy smart irrigation

practices, nutriment smart practices

Soil and Water Conservation-Farm ponds with micro irrigation, bore well

recharge structures etc.,

Integrated Farming Systems-back yard poultry, small ruminants, fodder

crops/ fodder tress on bunds, vermicomposting

etc.,

1 Value addition- Millet & pulses

processing units (Dall Mills)

Community Interventions-Custom hiring centers, climate information

centers

Capacity Building-household

mentoring, Market linkages , climate

smart practices, Business plan and

sustainability strategy

2

3

4

5

6

Intelligent Agricultural Systems Advisory Tool (ISAT) - Taking small-holder farming to next level

Maharashtra Farmers fear loss of kharif harvest, blame Met Department

(http://www.huffingtonpost.in/village-square/maharashtra-farmers-fear-loss-of-kharif-harvest-blame-met-depar_a_23041487/)

• Rainfall forecast from the met services not specific to their location

• Contingency planning from the Dept. of Agriculture that rarely considers market information

• Crop management recommendations that are mostly generalized for all soils and seasons

Rainfall probability- Anantapur

Dry spells >300 mm years

Dry spells <300 mm years

Decision tree – Rainfed groundnut system, Anantapur

Timeline Conditions Decision

April&MayKharif

Avg Rain=352 mm

SCF/LRF

El Nino

Limited GN with high proportion of drought tolerant

crops

Prepare for planting a mix of crops

Plant GN with PP as intercrop

BN

Message

• Plant early maturing GN at the earliest opportunity

• Consider using a mix of crops

• Plant GN at the earliest opportunity after 2nd week of June

• Plant early maturing GN at the earliest opportunity

• Consider allocating about 25-50% of the land to drought tolerant crops

<35

0 m

m

JuneAvg

Rain=50 mm

P for>20 mm=0.73

Last week Rain

Timeline Conditions Message

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3

Week 4

Next week

forecast

2week outlook

Last week Rain Next

week forecast

Last week Rain

Next week

forecast

Last week Rain

Next week

forecast

Next week

forecast

Next week

forecast

Next week

forecast

Next week

forecast

2week outlook

2week outlook

2week outlook

2week outlook

2week outlook

2week outlook

2week outlook

2week outlook

2week outlook

2week outlook

2week outlook

2week outlook

2week outlook

2week outlook

2week outlook

Wait

Prepare land

Plant GN

Wait

Plant GN

Wait

Plant GN

Wait

Plant GN

Wait

Prepare the land or Plant GN

Prepare land

Get ready for planting

Prepare the land

Wait

Prepare the land

AN

AN

AN

AN

AN

AN

AN

AN

Last week Rain

Next week

forecast

Last week Rain

Last week Rain

Next week

forecast

Next week

forecast

Timeline Conditions Message

Wait

Last week Rain

Week 1

Next week

forecast

2week outlookNext

week forecast

2week outlook

2week outlook

2week outlook

Prepare the land

Wait

Prepare the land

BN

AN

BN

AN

Intelligent Agricultural Systems Advisory Tool (ISAT)

AgMIP Sentinel Sites

Next steps

• Use of big data analytics for identification of key farm decisions and drivers

• Developing decision trees/decision making structures with appropriate triggers/ thresholds for several crops

• Linking the program with an information dissemination system

Thank You