rethinking the public interest: a canada 2020 presentation

8/11/2019 Rethinking the Public Interest: A Canada 2020 Presentation

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Copyright 2014. No reproduction without permission.

Evolving Trends in Values and Attitudes

#Can2020 Conference

October 2, 2014 www.ekos.com

Rethinking the Public Interest:

By Frank Graves

Ottawa, Ontario


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Democracy, Public Institutions, and

Role of Government3.

Values and Ideology:Big Sift! Progressive "ave

#.

$conomy and Social %lass&.&.

%onclusions'.


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Why Values?

(ltimate yardstic)s of societal *reference+ normativeindicators of rigt-rong, goodbad

Glacial, not mercurial

/o monolitic consensus *ossible in increasingly *luralisticsociety

Progressive values -ic dominate and en0oy momentumsocietally are given sort srift by current government

Gro-ing ga* a source of tension -it *ublic interest

1inally, values *roduce emotional engagement 2emotions-in elections

Progressives ave not *layed teir value cards -ell


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57

60

65

66

69

77

77

7778

83

83

85

86

87

0 20 40 60 80 100

Q. If you were to direct Canadian society, how important would you say each of thefollowing goals and values should be?

A clean environment

Freedom

Integrity and ethics

A healthy population

Collective human rights

Security and safetyTolerance

Social equality

Hard work

Sharing of wealth

Prosperity and wealth

Respect for authority

Traditional family values

Minimal gov. intrusions

89

79

7580

83

80

86

81

77

66

79

79

72

72

BASE: Canadians; November 20-29, 2012 (n=1,181), MOE +/- 2.9%, 19 times out of 20

NOVEMBER 2012(mean)

1998(mean)

= Moderate drop since 1998

= Significant drop since 1998

= Small (but statisticallysignificant) drop since 1998

Most Important Goals and Values


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Attitudes on Key Social Issues (ii)

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Disagree Agree

44

46

36

42

22 22

30

1410

20

30

40

50

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Prevention Punishment

BASE (right): Canadians; September 21-25, 2014 (n=1,549), MOE +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20

Additional Powers for Law EnforcementTo what extent do you agree or disagree with the followingstatement: police and intelligence agencies should have morepowers to ensure security even if it means Canadians have togive up some personal privacy safeguards?

Purpose of Criminal Justice SystemWhich of the following four possibilities should be the main goalof the criminal justice system? 1.) Prevention; 2.) Rehabilitation;3.) Deterrence; or 4.) Punishment

BASE (left): Canadians July 16-23, 2013 (n=2,620), MOE +/- 1.9%, 19 times out of 20


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13

BASE (left): Canadians; September 21-25, 2014 (n=1,549), MOE +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20

Attitudes on Key Social Issues (iii)

Legalization

Marijuana should be legalized

Remain illegalMarijuana should remain illegal

DecriminalizationMarijuana should remain illegal, but possession ofsmall amounts should only carry a fine, not jail time

Legalization of MarijuanaWhich of the following statements comes closets to yourown point of view about the use of marijuana by adults?

Tracking Decriminalization of MarijuanaPlease rate the extent to which you agree or disagree with thefollowing statement: Possession of small amounts of marijuana forpersonal use SHOULD NOT BE A CRIME.

37

30

21

45

50

68

20

30

40

50

60

70

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Oppose Support

BASE (right): Canadians; January 22-27, 2014 (n=1,501), MOE +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20


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Rethinking Canadas Place in the World

Public 0udgement of bot %anadian and "estern decade ofinterventions is largely negative

Strong *reference for traditional model of soft *o-er a**roac over ne-

attem*ts at militarism

7e *ublic are drifting a-ay from a focus on security to oter *riorities

7

9

57

44

17

22

19

25

DK/NR Negative (1-2) Neither (3) Positive (4-5)

Impact of Western / Canadian Interventions in the Middle EastThinking about Canadian/Western interventions in the Greater Middle East since 2000, do you think the net impact hasbeen mostly negative or mostly positive?

Canadian

Western

Preferred Focus of Canadas Foreign PolicyIn discussions about Canadas foreign policy, what do you think should be the most important consideration?

7 16 37 40

DK/NR Defence Diplomacy Development and aidBASE: Canadians; September 21-25, 2014 (n=1,549), MOE +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20


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Political Ideology: Recent Movements (i)

%anadians istorically less entrenced tan 8mericans and

less small 5c6 conservative

7ree moments of ideological evolution:

i. 4istorical *attern of *lurality small 5l6 liberal, close minorityof small 5c6, large 5neiter6 2stable in latter *art of &9t

century

ii. $nd of ideology *ase -ere 5neiter6 d-arfs leftrigt

iii. /e- moment sees te dominance of *rogressive andnadir for 5neiter6

Dialectical res*onse to un*recedented government from

te rigt!

%olla*se of 5neiter6 *osition reflects a regrettable sift from

te *olitics of consensus to a divided and fragmented

electorate


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27

24

25

2221

25

23

28 28

30

3231

2625

27

41 41

29

33

25

22 22 22

37

3031

28

30

35

37

35

41

46

2827

33

35

39

42

47

4443

39

35

4748

24

27

34

34

34

20

30

40

50

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Small 'c' conservative Neither Small 'l' liberalBASE: Canadians; September 21-25, 2014 (n=1,549), MOE +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20

Political Ideology: Recent Movements (ii)

I. Stable HistoricalResult

III. New ProgressiveWave

II. End ofIdeology?

Q. Forgetting about your current party choice, do you consider yourself a small "l"liberal or a small "c" conservative?


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Conclusions: Values

Values matter

Gro-ing mismatc bet-een *artisan and overall *ublic

values and tra0ectories

8ll evidence *oints to a *rofound *rogressive -ave2attitudes, values, and ideology

Progressive values must also be central to recovery of*ublic interest 2and *olitical success

%anadians value bot conservative and *rogressivevalues, but current s)e- is increasingly unreflective ofsifting %anadian centre


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%onclusions'.


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57

26

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Worse offAbout the sameBetter off

BASE (left): Canadians; September 21-25, 2014 (n=774), MOE +/- 3.5%, 19 times out of 20

Generational Outlook and Social Class

Generational OutlookThinking about your overall quality of life do you thinkthe next generation will be better off, worse off, or aboutthe same as you are 25 years from now?

Self-Rated Social ClassWould you describe you and your household as poor, working class,middle class, or upper class?

6261

46

67

6263

60

48 47

40

50

60

70

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

US Canada

BASE (right): Canadians; December 12-15, 2013 (n=3,468), MOE +/- 1.7%, 19 times out of 20

% who say MIDDLE CLASS

1ears are igest -en turned to te future, *articularly concerns aboutretirement

7e grey outloo) on te *resent turns almost blac) as te *ublic *onder tefate of future generations

It a**ears tat -e ave at least tem*orarily reaced te end of *rogress, te

defining acievement of liberal ca*italism


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11

9

7

10

15

34

44

34

20

17

17

17

54

40

32

39

NA/DK/NR Less (1-3) About the same (4) More (5-7)

All respondents

45-64

65+

25-44

Q. hin#ing about your current annual income and comparing that to what your father earned atthe same age as you are now, would you say that, using inflation$ad%usted dollars, you earn more,less, or about the same as your father?

BASE: Canadians; December 12-20, 2013 (n=1,531), MOE +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20

Income Relative to Father*

7y*ical yout o*timism muted

%urrent generation sees itself falling bac)-ard and sees an even stee*erdecline in future

Do-n-ard intergenerational mobility as trebled from seniors to under '?

& 'ower female labour force participation rate and historical gender ine(uality confound mother comparison


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72

61

27

5

2

17

21

35

20

5

9

14

34

71

90

Fallen Behind Stayed the same Moved ahead

CEOs of large companies

Banking/financial services employees

Manual and blue collar workers

Middle class households

Public sector employees

Q. )o you believe the following groups have moved ahead,

fallen behind, or stayed the same over the last *+ years?

Incentives and Long-Term Winners

15

64 16 Disagree

NeitherAgree

Our incentive systems arebroken and hard work is nolonger producing the same

rewards that it used to

Q. Please rate the etent to which you

agree or disagree with the followingstatement!

%anadians no longer convinced tat te economy is *roviding tebalance of incentives and fairness -ic *ermit economic and societal*rogress

>iddle class sees itself as te *rimary loser over longer term

BASE: Canadians; September 21-25, 2014 (n=1,549), MOE +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20


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Consequences of Inequality

7oo little gro-t is going to an increasingly slender coortand te rest are left -it a simmering sense of betrayal anddes*air

>ost foresee serious generational strains as tese *ressures

gro- dramatically as -e unbundle te data from older toyounger citi@ens

Soc)ingly, te ma0ority sees tis tra0ectory leading to te

*ossibility of !iol"nt class con#licts if tese trends continue

-ge .ather than /ender 0ecoming the 1ew Income )ivide2

$%onference Board of %anada 2Se*t &9#'


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%onclusions'.


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20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1958 1966 1974 1982 1990 1998 2006 2014

Direction of Country and Government


Public confidence in direction of country and trust in governmentreacing ne- lo-s

20

30

40

50

60

70

1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014

Government Country

Q. -ll things considered, would you say thecountry 3 /overnment of Canada is movingin the right direction or the wrong direction?

% who say WRONG DIRECTION % who say MOST/ALL THE TIME

Q. 4ow much do you trust the government inOttawa35ashington to do what is right?


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65

61

57

54

50

45

49

40

50

60

70

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014


Size of Government

% who say SMALLER GOVERNMENT

Q. /enerally spea#ing, which of the following would you say thatyou favour?

67 a larger governmentwith higher taes and more services8*7 asmaller governmentwith lower taes and fewer services

%anadians are rece*tive to a more effective and activegovernment

Averall trend is away from for lo-er ta;es and smaller government

Value of minimal government as declined significantly since #C

Q. 5hich of the following do youthin# would be the best optionfor moving Canada forward?

44 57

Increasing the role of governmentto invest in new areas such as job creation, publicinfrastructure, and stronger social security

Reducing the size of governmentand providing targeted tax relief in order to allow

the private sector to propel growth and jobs


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3

3

10

2

13

6

75

89

DK/NR Disagree (1-3) Neither (4) Agree (5-7)

5I -ould *ersonally feel better about government decisionma)ing ifgovernments -ere mor" transpar"nt6

Q. Please rate the etent to which you agree or disagree with the followingstatements!


5I -ould *ersonally feel better about government decisionma)ing if I )ne- tatgovernment so$%&t in#orm"' inp$t #rom a!"ra%" citi("ns on a regular basis6

8s trust and legitimacy furter decline, tere may be t-o boo)ends-ic can el*:

#. 7ransform government from blac) bo; to glass bo;

&. Re*resentative, reflective, and informed citi@en in*ut as a routine

*art of governance bet-een elections

Need for Transparency/Citizen Engagement


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32

31

13

11

52

56

Oppose (1-3) Neither (4) Support (5-7)

2013

2014


Q.- number of countries such as -ustralia and 0ra9il have implementedcompulsory voting, where citi9ens are re(uired to vote in elections: 5ould you

oppose or support introducing compulsory voting in Canada?

Support for Compulsory Voting

>andatory voting migt reset democracy, return young%anada to te electorate, and cause *arties to sift from

getouttevote and retail narro-casting to te overall*ublic interest


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#.


%onclusions'.


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Conclusions (i)

Beneat an a**arently *lacid surface, *rofound canges aretransforming %anada

7e tree most im*ortant may be:

i. 8 clear *rogressive -ave -ic sees mounting unsustainable tensionbet-een *olitical status uo and evolving values and ideologicalorientations.

ii. 8n end to te traditional *atterns of *rogress and a srin)ing and

*essimistic middle class. (ncorrected, tese trends im*eril te future ofliberal ca*italism in /ort 8merica.

iii. 8n un*recedented colla*se of trust in democracy and *ublicinstitutions -ic is a**roacing a legitimacy crisis. "idening fault linesacross generations and social class.

7ese *rofound *roblems are relatively recent and interde*endent. 7eyare also correctable but -ill not selfcorrect.

"indo- closing for dealing -it tis!


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Conclusions (ii)

8 gro-ing failure of our incentive system

%anadians are rece*tive to a bold ne- vision -ic incor*orates afres blue*rint for restarting *rogress and restoring legitimacy

7e role of state and *ublic institutions -ill be te critical contestedterrain.

Values are also a crucial ingredient

"e need a real commitment to trans*arency and a citi@en

focussed government -ic routinely engages te *ublic

>oreover, -e need a ne-, more active, agile state -ic acts as

a strategic bro)er, not a large *arental bureaucracy

7e rise of te *ermanent cam*aign occurs against a sar*ly erodingfait in democracy in general and *olitics in *articular

=ess dar) o*s and more focus on *ublic interest

7is starts -it listening to %anadians, not mani*ulating tem


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Fran) *ra!"s+,- ."s"arc& Associat"s

#%ra!"s/")oscom

613 2357215

www.ekos.com

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