Devotion

Chapter 10 Risk and Opportunities Management

Mamahit AgathaKaparang ChrystoLiusito ReinaMaramis JeanetteWahongan Jessica

‘. . . as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don’t know we don’t know.’

(Donald Rumsfeld)

Principle Resiko dan ketidakpastian adalah dasar-

dasar dari proyek. Ada pendekatan yang berkembang dengan

baik dapat di aplikasikan dalam pengelolaan resiko.

Sementara selalu ada potensi proyek yang buruk, selalu ada juga terbalik. Kesempatan sama pentingnya dengan resiko.

Learning objectives Mengakui sifat dari resiko. Menerapkan dasar peralatan kuantitatif dan

kualitatif untuk mengelola resiko. Mengakui betapa pentingnya mempertimbangkan

kesempatan yang ada yang disajikan sebuah proyek.

Introduction

KAPARANG, CHRYSTO

10.1 The Nature of Risk and Risk Management

KAPARANG, CHRYSTO

DefinitionPengertian dari risiko: kemungkinan mengalami kerusakan atau

kerugian (pmi 2004) Ketidakpastian yang melekat dalam rencana

dan kemungkinan terjadinya sesuatu (yaitu kontingensi) yang dapat mempengaruhi prospek untuk mencapai tujuan bisnis atau proyek. (BS 6079)

KAPARANG, CHRYSTO

Kerangka untuk manajemen risiko - Tiga bidang utama dari Project Risk Management: identifikasi, kuantifikasi dan kontrol respon atau mitigasi(see Figure 10.1)

Elemen pertama dari kerangka kerja ini adalah identifikasi risiko, proses memprediksi hasil risiko utama - indikator bahwa ada sesuatu yang tidak beres dalam proyek

KAPARANG, CHRYSTO

LIUSITO, REINA

Kategori Analisa Risiko Analisa TCQ1. Time2. Cost3. Quality further risk categories added1. Health and safety2. Legal

LIUSITO, REINA

Asumsi-asumsi

LIUSITO, REINA

Response Control/Mitigation Setelah mengidentifikasi elemen resiko yang

harus dikelola, diperlukan beberapa prosedur untuk memastikan bahwa kemungkinan untuk berkurangnya resiko atau efek yang akan terjadi dapat menggunakan beberapa cara. Sebagai contoh, resiko aktivitas berjalan kritis dapat dikurangi melalui pengurangan skala kegiatan atau dengan memastikan bahwa ada cara lain untuk menangani proyek tersebut dengan hasil yang baik seperti proyek yang tertunda. Kedua pendekatan tersebut mencakup dalam Gambar 10.1 yaitu tindakan korektif dan kontingensi dan cadangan.

LIUSITO, REINA

Selain itu, beberapa organisasi tidak ingin menerima resiko tersebut yaitu adanya ketidakpastian dalam sebuah proyek. Ini sering terjadi meskipun hal seperti ini akan dibahas dalam bab 14, sering dianggap seperti keberhasilan yang terbatas. Hal seperti ini dapat menjadi sasaran subyek asuransi sebagai salah satu cara sebuah organisasi ingin membatasi resiko dalam setiap satu proyek.

Penggunaan Formal teknik analisis risiko mungkin diperlukan oleh :● kebijakan perusahaan ;● klien ( terutama untuk kontrak pertahanan ) .

Manfaat yang dianggap akan terjadi:● menyediakan sarana untuk meningkatkan rencana proyek dan mencerminkan realitas dengan lebih baik;● menyoroti area untuk perhatian dan perencanaan kontinjensi pada tahap perencanaan ;

LIUSITO, REINA

● mencoba untuk memanfaatkan banyak ' gut-feel element' dalam penilaian risiko dan menggunakan intuisi penting ini sebagai titik awal untuk analisis lebih lanjut ;● memungkinkan kuantifikasi risiko untuk membangun pengalaman dalam cara yang terstruktur dan memungkinkan faktor ini untuk ditelusuri secara historis untuk kepentingan masa depan dalam proyek-proyek lain .

Proses resiko mendasar lainnya

Pengelolaan risiko tidak berhenti pada titik ini. Banyak organisasi mengklaim manfaat dari pengelolaan risiko menjadi proses yang berkelanjutan di seluruh proyek . Dokumentasi khusus membantu untuk mendukung proses ini berlangsung meliputi penggunaan risk register atau log risiko.

LIUSITO, REINA

10.2 Qualitative and Quantitative ApproachesDua pendekatan yang sama: 1. Menilai berapa besar kemungkinan suatu even terlaksana

disuatu tempat yang kemungkinan terlaksana begitu mustahil 2 .Menentukan besarnya pengaruh even tersebut – contohnya

pengaruh yang mungkin ada

Critical – apakah akan menimbulkan kegagalan secara total di satu bagian atau banyak dari kegiatan proyek?

Major – apakah akan meningkatkan cost di satu atau banyak area? Minor – apakah akan menyebabkan ketidaknyamanan tapi tidak

membuat proyek itu di set kembali secara financial ataupun waktu.

MARAMIS JEANETTE

Qualitative Approaches

MARAMIS JEANETTE

(likelihood) x (severity) x (hideability)

MARAMIS JEANETTE

Quantitative approaches As for planning, risk analysis is an attempt to

provide a mathematical model of the scenario in an attempt to allow the brain to comprehend the effect of a large number of variables on the outcome.

Risk quantification techniques that will be discussed here are:

● Expected value;● Sensitivity analysis;● Monte Carlo simulation;● PERT.

MARAMIS JEANETTE

Expected Value The expected value of an event is the possible

outcome times the probability of its occurrence

e.g. if a project has a 50 per cent chance of yielding a profit of £30 million, the expected value is 0.5 × £30 million = £15 million.

MARAMIS JEANETTE

Sensitivity analysis This works similarly to PERT analysis – an

expected value for the main inputs (e.g. costs) to the project is put into the calculations of the outcome as well as an optimistic (in this case +n per cent) and pessimistic (−n per cent) value (value of n is often 10).

This will show the effect on the outcome of a change in the variable considered and can show where management control attention should be focused.

MARAMIS JEANETTE

MARAMIS JEANETTE

MARAMIS JEANETTE

Monte Carlo Simulation Requires the use of a computer to be

practicable and uses a range of values of distribution, rather than single values, for time, cost and other estimates.

Monte Carlo simulation is available as an extension to most popular spreadsheet packages (including Excel).

MARAMIS JEANETTE

PERT The technique is intended to deal with the

likelihood that the single value given as the estimated time for completion of activities is going to have a degree of error associated with it. Instead of taking a single time, three time estimates for each activity are required:

● optimistic time – how long the activity would take if the conditions were ideal;

● most probable time – time if conditions were ‘normal’;

● pessimistic time – how long the activity would take if a significant proportion of the things that could go wrong did go wrong.

WAHONGAN, JESSICA

There are an infinite number of possibilities as to how this range is distributed,

e.g. optimistic and most probable times may be close together with the pessimistic time considerably different from the other two, or all three may be very close together.

This flexibility in the distribution that is applied is one of the major appeals of the technique.

WAHONGAN, JESSICA

expected time = [o + 4m + p]/6 In the case of activity A,

the expected time = [3 + [4 × 5] + 7]/6 = 5 For activity B,

the expected time = [2 + [4 × 3] + 10]/6 = 4

WAHONGAN JESSICA

The distribution activity B can be represented by Figure 10.5.

WAHONGAN JESSICA

Wahongan Jessica

The example is now completed using the expected times shown in Table 10.3.

Original Analysis (CPA)Critical path ACFH = 24 days

PERTCritical path ADGH = 25 days

variance of activity time = [[p − o]/6]2

Explanation 1 Calculate the variance for each activity. 2 Calculate the variance for each path (a sequence of activities that will take

you from the first event to the last – there are generally many paths through networks) in the network diagram.

3 Calculate the standard deviation for that path:

ópath = square root of the variance 4 Identify the time within which you wish to complete the activities. Calculate

the value for z determined by:

z = [specified time − expected time]/ópath 5 Refer to the Appendix at the end of this chapter – the value of z corresponds

to a probability (expressed between 0 and 1). This is the probability that the activity path will be completed within the time identified in 4.

6 The probability that all the paths that have been considered will be finished in the given time is found by multiplying the probabilities for each of the paths together.

Wahongan Jessica

This method is best illustrated by an example.1 Calculate the variance for each activity (shown in Table 10.4).2 Now it is necessary to identify the paths. There are several

rules regarding the selection of paths for this process:– Each activity must be on only one path – where activities are shared

between severalpaths, the one that is the critical path should be used;– Activities on different paths need to be independent – there should

be no unwrittenlogic relationship between activities on different paths.With these in mind the three paths that need to be considered here

are: B–E C–F D–GThe following steps are calculated in Table 10.5. The variances are

then summed for each path.

Wahongan Jessica

3 The standard deviations are then calculated.

4 The time required for completion is arbitrarily 11 days.

5 The z values are added.6 The probabilities are derived from Table

10.4.7 The probability of each of these times

being achieved is clearly highest where the expected time was less than the time required for completion (path B–E).

Wahongan Jessica

0.7673 × 0.5000 × 0.2981 = 0.1144i.e. there is less than a 12 per cent chance that this part of the project will be completed in 11 days.

Wahongan Jessica

The use of PERT in practice PERT provides an in-built level of risk

assessment, considering as it does three values for time estimates (optimistic, most likely and pessimistic).

The objective of the risk analysis is to enable the project manager to include contingencies, that is, having identified the most risky elements of the project, to put some actions in place to make sure that the risk is minimised.

MAMAHIT, AGATHA

PERT was very popular in the 1960s. One project demanded by a senior manager

was thought to be ‘difficult’ and ‘challenging’. The designated project manager was unhappy about what he was being asked to take on, believing that the failure of the project was a high risk and could be ‘career limiting’

MAMAHIT, AGATHA

A basic analysis of the chance of success through PERT demonstrated that with the level of resources allocated, he had less than a 5 per cent chance of succeeding in making the delivery date for the project.

Communicating this level of risk and requiring senior management acceptance of this level of risk resulted in the opportunity to re-scope the project and a much higher chance of success that was acceptable to both the project manager and the firm.

MAMAHIT, AGATHA

10.3 Opportunities management‘On a recent multi-million pound project, my

team spent two days trying to reduce a £50000 risk. I would much rather they had

spent that time looking to see how the project could yield an extra £50 000 of business

benefit.’(Project Director, Rolls-Royce)

MAMAHIT, AGATHA

One of 3M’s most successful and enduring projects has been the Post-it note.

many people who specialise in the management of innovation that it is rare that great products are the result of a development process that started out with that objective in mind.

It is worth reconsidering the issue, as it is essential that there is a route not only for threats to the project (as is the negative side of risks) but also for the exploitation of opportunities.

MAMAHIT, AGATHA

There are many approaches to assessing the opportunities. One framework is: Negative to positive Opportunities of response Random good fortune

MAMAHIT, AGATHA

Thank You