role of ocean in the extended range prediction of …€¦ · 1.2 broader impact of proposed work:...

ROLE OF OCEAN IN THE EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION

OF MONSOON'S ACTIVE BREAK CYCLE-IMPROVING

HINDCAST SKILL OF THE NECP-CFS MODELLING

SYSTEM

A project Proposal

Under National Monsoon Mission Programme of

Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES)

Ministry of Earth Sciences

Government of India

New Delhi 110 003

Submitted by

Baby Chakrapani & Dr. P.V.Joseph

Department of Atmospheric Sciences,

Cochin University of Science & Technology

Cochin – 682 016.

&

Dr. M.R.Ramesh Kumar,

Head, hysical Oceanography Division,

National Institute of Oceanography,

Dona Paula, Goa-403004

1. Title of the Proposed Project:

ROLE OF OCEAN IN THE EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION OF

MONSOON’S ACTIVE BREAK CYCLE IMPROVING HINDCAST

SKILL OF THE NCEP-CFS MODELING SYSTEM

2. Brief information about Principal Investigator (PI) and Co-PI(s) :

Principal Investigator:

Name : BABY CHAKRAPANI

Date of birth : 25/7/1963

Institution : Department of Atmospheric Sciences,

Cochin University of Science

&Technology, Kochi -682016

Qualification : M.Sc.

Co - Principal Investigator (1):

Name : Prof P.V.JOSEPH



Cochin University of Science &

Technology, Kochi-682016.

Qualification : MA, PhD

Co - Principal Investigator (2):

Name : Dr M.R.RAMESH KUMAR


Institution : National Institute of Oceanography, Goa

Qualification : M.Sc. PhD

3. Project Summary (1 page):

(a) Intellectual merits of the proposed work:

Monsoon is a coupled ocean-atmosphere system. Coupling is very important in the Active –

Break cycle of the monsoon as shown by Sengupta et al (2001) and Joseph and Sabin (2008).

For Extended Range Prediction, IITM is currently using the NCEP-CFS coupled model. Net

heat flux variations and wind stress at the ocean surface have to be correctly produced by the

atmospheric model. Ocean’s SST response depends on how well the ocean model is able to

simulate the Mixed Layer Depth. The sensitive areas are the zones of thin mixed layer of

thickness less than 30 m in the north Indian and west Pacific Oceans. A recent study by

Joseph and Jayakumar (2012) has shown that El Ninos induce seasonal scale areas of thin

mixed layer in the west Pacific Ocean. Monsoon Convection in the Active phase shifts to this

area from the north Indian Ocean lengthening the Active – Break cycle, producing long breaks

and generating drought Indian monsoons. It has to be examined in a hind cast mode whether

the NCEP-CFS model now functioning at IITM is able to reproduce the changes in the

oceanic Mixed Layer and correctly reproduce the Active – Break cycle of monsoon.

(b) Broader impacts of the proposed work:

One of the drivers of the Active-Break cycle is the SST variations over the thin mixed layer

zone between latitudes 15N and 25N in the north Indian Ocean and West Pacific Ocean, west

of longitude 120E. This thin Mixed Layer zone extends eastwards up to the date line in El

Nino years. The proposed hindcast study will tell us whether the ocean model used reproduces

the mixed layer depth properly in normal and El Nino years. If not the ocean model has to be

modified suitably. One of the impacts of the proposed study is the development of our

capability to forecast long breaks and thereby correctly forecast monsoon droughts. Long

breaks are the main cause of monsoon droughts (Joseph Susmitha et al, 2009).

©Project Description:

1. Research Objectives-

(a) To perform hindcast experiments with the NCEP-CFS system in use at IITM to see

whether the Mixed Layer depth is reproduced correctly and thereby reproduce the

Active-Break cycle correctly in normal and El Nino years.

(b) To suggest modification in the model, if the mixed layer depth and Active-Break

cycle are not reproduced correctly.

(c) To study the role of air sea fluxes over the tropical Indian ocean in relation to Intra

seasonal oscillations(ISO) as well as the active break phases of the Indian Summer

Monsoon

1.1 Intellectual merit of the proposed work - :

Understanding of the physical processes in the atmosphere and ocean in the Active –

Break cycle of the monsoon and the changes in El Nino years.

1.2 Broader impact of proposed work:

Develop capability to do realistic extended range prediction of monsoon Active- Break

cycle and indirectly help to develop techniques for prediction of monsoon droughts.

1.3 Technical Section:

Study of the CFS coupled Ocean Atmospheric Model to undertake modifications work

if needed.

2 Statement of Work (methodology to be adopted)

It is proposed to study the output of the CFS coupled model runs made at IITM for the

monsoons of the following years,

(a) Elnino years 2002, 2004 and 2009

(b) Lanina years of 1998, 2003 and 2007 to examine how well the mixed layer depths are

reproduced by the CFS model both in the Elnino and lanina years. The available ARGO

float data (eg.2007 &2009) can be used for the model verification. For the other years

we will examine whether the mixed layer depth between longitudes 120 E and 180 E

and latitudes 10 N and 30 N in the Pacific ocean is thick in lanina (about 80m) years

and thin in Elnino years (about 40 m).If mixed layer depth and active break cycle are

not well reproduced by the model, then we will explore the possibility of modifying the

model.

(c) It is also proposed to study the role of air sea fluxes over the tropical Indian Ocean in

relation to Intra seasonal oscillations (ISO) as well as the active break phases of the

Indian summer monsoon making use of the available observations and the CFS

stimulations

2.1 Schedule (Year wise)

Year Expected Outcome Deliverables

Year - 1

Analysis of the CFS model

output for the years 1998, 2002,

2003, 2004, 2007 and 2009 and

air sea flux computations

Assessment of the performance of the

model in reproducing the MLD and the

air sea fluxes of active break cycle.

Year - 2

Flux computations of the model

deficiencies and carrying out

necessary modifications

Carrying out the required modifications

of the Model

Year - 3 Run the CFS model in IITM in

the modified form

Improved forecasting of MLD and

active break cycle

2.2 Team Composition and expertise

Investigator Qualification Expertise

PI M.Sc. Atmospheric Modelling, Numerical weather prediction

Co-PI (1) MA ,PhD Tropical Meteorology, Monsoon Meteorology

Co-PI (2) M.Sc. PhD Ocean - Atmosphere Interaction, Remote Sensing,

Antarctic Studies, Monsoons, Climate Change

2.3 Connections to Operational forecast and Human resource development: This

proposal aims to improve the prediction of mixed layer depth of CFS model which in

turn can improve the skill of the model in predicting the active break cycle of the South

West monsoon. This can also train the Research Fellows in the field of coupled ocean

atmosphere models and thus cater the human resources requirement in this promising

field.

4. Related works:

4.1 National status:

India has very little experience in coupled models and only isolated studies in this area have

been carried out by different groups in India. But no work exclusively for the CFS model has

been carried out.

4.2 International status:

It was found that around the location of the southern hemi-sphere ITCZ in the Indian ocean,

the observed Mixed Layer Depth (MLD) was shallow (less than 30 meters) during January

and February. In this connection please see the study by Duvel et al (2004). They found SST

perturbations in Madden Julian Oscillation of up to 3 degree (TMI data) in the area of shallow

MLD (Indian Ocean), although the Net Heat Flux variations covered a much larger area. The

Model they used could not produce this large SST variability as it could not produce a shallow

mixed layer in the Indian Ocean. On discussion with international scientists who have done

coupled modelling, it was noted that current ocean models are not able to produce realistic

MLD variations in space and time.

5. Results from prior MoES support (if any)

[Describe any prior MoES funded work by the PI, Co-PI(s)]

Investigator MoES grant no. Title Year Description

PI

Co-PI

6. Facilities available at the workspace:

(e.g., existing computer facilities)

The Department of Atmospheric Sciences at CUSAT has moderate computing facilities. Apart

from a few workstations we have a 8 node cluster server which can cater medium level

computations. The Physical Oceanography Division of the National Institute of Oceanography

has moderate computing facilities.

7. Budget requirements (with justifications)

(a) Emoluments for research personnel, technical and administrative support

7.1 Budget requirement for Key personnel:

Two Research Fellows one each placed at NIO Goa and Department of Atmospheric Sciences,

Cochin University of Science &Technology @ Rs.16000 plus 15% HRA per month for the first

two years and Rs.18000 plus 15% HRA for the 3rd year.

(Rupees in Lakhs)

1st

year

2nd

Year

3rd

Year Total

4.416 4.416 4.968 13.8

7.2 Budget requirement for other personnel (e.g. Research Assistants):

Nil

7.3 Budget for Technical and administrative support:

Because of the acute shortage of administrative staff in the University, the entire financial and

administrative management of the project cannot be fully supported by the permanent

employees of the University. For effective management of the project, part time administrative

support can be hired @ Rs. 5000 per month.

(Rupees in Lakhs)

1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year Total

0.6 0.6 0.6 1.8

(b) Budget requirement for Travel

7.4 Budget for Domestic Travel:

(Rupees in Lakhs)


1.4 1.4 1.4 4.2

7.5 Budget for Material & Supplies:

(Rupees in Lakhs)


Consumables 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.5

Contingencies 1.0 1.0 1.0 3.0

Total 1.5 1.5 1.5 4.5

7.6 Budget for Computer Services:

Nil

7.7 Budget for Equipment’s:

Even though major computational resources are not to be procured for this project, a

state of the art desktop computer and 2 laptops are required to carry out the work

related to this project.

(Rupees in Lakhs)


2.0 - 2.0

(d) Budget for Indirect Costs

7.8 Budget for Facilities & Administrative Costs:

Institutional Overhead charges @ 15% of the recurring portion of the budget

Rupees in Lakhs


1.5 1.5 1.3 4.3

GRAND TOTAL= Rs. 30.6 lakhs

8. Bio-data (CV) of the Investigators:

8.1 PI Biography (Person A)

Name

:Baby Chakrapani

Date of Birth

:25/7/1963


Cochin University of Science

&Technology.

Address

:(Residence)

Sri Nilayam,EdakunniWarriam,

Warriam Lane, Thrissur-680001.

Tel. No.:0487-2428620

Address : (Office)

Associate Professor,

Department of Atmospheric Sciences,

Cochin University of Science & Technology,

Fine Arts Avenue,

Kochi-682016, Kerala

Tel.No.0484-2353662

FAX: 0484-2353662

Educational Qualification:

School/College/University Degree Year Main subjects Division/Class

Calicut University B.Sc. 1983 Mathematics, Physics

&, Chemistry First Class

Cochin University of

Science & Technology M.Sc. 1986 Meteorology First Class

Appointments (Professional experience/employment record):

Organization Designation / Position Duration ( Year / date)


Science & Technology Lecturer 1990 to 1996


Science & Technology Senior Lecturer 1996-2001


Science & Technology Lecturer selection Grade/Reader 2001 to 2006


Science & Technology Associate Professor 2006 to date

List of important and relevant Research Publications:

1. S.K.Dash and B.Chakrapani (1989).Simulation of a winter circulation over India using a

global spectral model, Proc.IndianAcad.Sci.(Earth Planet Sci.) 98, 189-205.

2. A.J.Litta, B.Chakrapani and K.Mohankumar (2007).Mesoscale simulation of an extreme

rainfall event over Mumbai,India, using a high-resolution MM5 model,Meteorological

Applications ,14 : 291-295 .

Participation in Conference/Seminar/Workshop/ Summer Schools:

Participated in several national and international Seminars/Summer Schools/ Workshops in

the last 20 years.

Recent collaborations:

Collaboration with Kerala Agricultural University in issuing location specific Agro advisory

bulletins by delivering them high resolution numerical weather forecast over Kerala using

WRF model.

Research Guidance: Nil

No. of Ph.D. students enrolled/ completed: Nil

No. of Graduate/Postgraduate students enrolled/ completed: About 20 M.Sc.

Dissertations/Projects enrolled and successfully completed in the last 10 years.

8.2 Co-PI Biography (Person B)

Name

: Dr. P.V.Joseph

Date of birth

: 29/12/1932

Institution

: Department of Atmospheric Sciences, CUSAT,Kochi

Address

: (Residence)

Porathur House,2091,Satellite Township,

Kakkanad- Kochi-682030.

Tel. No. : 0484-2422108

Address : (Office)

Emeritus Professor,

Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Cochin

University of Science & Technology, Fine Arts

Avenue, Kochi-682016.

Tel. No. : 0484-2353662

FAX: 0484-2353662



University of Madras MA 1953 Physics First Class

University of Poona PhD 1983 Atmospheric

Physics

Awards / Honors / Fellowship etc:

Vikram Sarabhai Award 1978


Organization Designation/ Position Duration

(Year / date)

IMD Director 1979-1989

Colorado University Research Associate 1989-1991

Cochin University of Science & Technology Visiting/Emeritus

Professor 1996 to date

List of important and relevant researchpublications:

1. Joseph PV and J Srinivasan (1999) Rossby wave in May and the Indian summer monsoon

rainfall. Tellus51A:854-864

2. Sathiyamoorthy V, Mohankumar K and PV Joseph (2002) Interannual variability of total ozone

and its relation with Asia Pacific wave. Tellus54B:269-277

3. Babu CA and PV Joseph (2002) Post Monsoon Sea Surface Temperature and convection

anomalies over Indian and Pacific Oceans. International Journal of Climatology22: 559567

4. Gadgil S and PV Joseph (2003) On breaks of the Indian monsoon. Proceedings of Indian

Academy of Sciences (Earth and Planetary Sciences)112:529–558

5. Joseph PV and S Sijikumar (2004) Intra seasonal variability of the Low Level Jet stream of the

Asian summer monsoon. Journal of Climate17:1449– 458

6. Joseph PV, Simon A, Nair VG and A Thomas (2004) Intra-Seasonal Oscillation (ISO) of south

Kerala rainfall during the summer monsoons of 1901-1995. Proceedings of Indian Academy of

Sciences (Earth and Planetary Sciences) 113:139-150

7. Joseph PV, Sooraj KP, Babu CA and TP Sabin (2005) A Cold Pool in the Bay of Bengal and

its interaction with the active–break cycles of monsoon. CLIVAR Exchanges34,10,3:10– 12

8. Joseph PV and A Simon (2005) Weakening trend of the southwest monsoon current through

peninsular India from 1950 to the present. Current Science, 89, 687-694

9. Joseph PV, Sooraj KP and CK Rajan (2006) The summer monsoon onset process over south

Asia and an objective method for the date of monsoon onset over Kerala. International Journal

of Climatology26:1871–1893

10. Shankar D, Shetye SR and PV Joseph (2007) Link between convection and meridional gradient

of sea surface temperature in the Bay of Bengal. Proceedings of Indian Academy of Sciences

(Earth and Planetary Sciences) 116:385-406

11. Joseph PV and TP Sabin (2008) An Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction Mechanism for the Active

Break Cycle of the Asian Summer Monsoon, Climate Dynamics 30: 553-566

12. Joseph PV and TP Sabin (2008) Trends in SST and reanalysis 850 & 200 hPa wind data of

Asian summer monsoon season during the recent six decades. Proceedings of 3rd WCRP

International Conference on Reanalysis –Tokyo, Japan.

13. Wang B., Ding Q. and Joseph P.V. (2009): Objective definition of the Indian summer monsoon

onset, Journal of Climate, DOI: 10.1175/2008JCL12675.1

14. Krishnamohan K.S, K. Mohankumar and P.V.Joseph (2012): The influence of Madden- Julian

Oscillation in the genesis of North Indian ocean Tropical Cyclones, Theoretical and Applied

Climatology, DOI 10.1007/s00704-011-0582-x

15. Sabin TP, Babu CA andP.V Joseph(2012): SST-Convection relation over tropical oceans,

International Journal of Climatology .Published online in Wiley Online Library (wiley online

library.com) DOI: 10.1002/joc.3522


Participated in several National/International Seminars/Workshops/Summer Schools during

the last 50 years. Also participated in several field experiments both national and International

.Was Chairman of working group which produced Science Plan for the field experiment on the

severe thunder storms of N E India.


1) With NERSC Norway on multidecadal variations of Indian Monsoon and Atlantic Ocean

through Nansen Environmental Research Center, India

2) With European Union on Monsoon variability through Nansen Environmental Research

Center, India

3) Had long collaboration with IISc. Bangalore on monsoon related problems

Research Guidance:

As Emeritus professor guided the research work of seven PhD students of CUSAT

No. of Ph.D. students completed: 7

No. of Graduate/Postgraduate students enrolled/ completed : Nil

8.3 Co-PI Biography (Person B)

Name: Dr. M.R.Ramesh Kumar

Date of birth :31/5/1959

Institution : National Institute of Oceanography,Goa

Address : (Residence)

A/S-2, T.R.Mansion A,

Above Expert Chemists & Druggists,

Near Caculo Ford Showroom, St.Inez,

Caranzalem P.O.

PIN 403002. Goa

Tel. No.:08322424529

Address :(Office)

Scientist G

Physical Oceanography Division,

National Institute of Oceanography,

Dona Paula, Goa – 403004.

Tel. No.:08322450304

FAX: 08322450602



Calicut University

B.Sc 1979

Physics,

Chemistry,

Mathematics

First Class


Sci.& Technology M.Sc 1981 Meteorology

First class and

First rank

Goa University Ph.D 1991 Meteorology

Awards / Honors / Fellowship etc.:

• Awarded Dr. N. K. Pannikar Memorial Award for obtaining First Rank in M.Sc. Meteorology

from Cochin University of Science and Technology, Kochi in 1981.

• Awarded Prof. P. R. Pisharoty Memorial Award for the year 2003 for work in the field of

Remote Sensing (this award was previously known as National Remote Sensing Award) and

is being given by the Indian Society of Remote Sensing, Dehradun, India.


Organization Designation / Position Duration ( Year / date)

NIO Goa Scientist B 16-2-1983 to 15-2-1988

NIO Goa Scientist C 16-2-1988 to 15-2-1993

NIO Goa Scientist EI 16-2-1993 to 15-2-1998

NIO Goa Scientist EII 16-2-1998 to 15-2-2004

NIO Goa Scientist F 16-2-2004 to 15-2-2009

NIO Goa Scientist G 16-2-2009 till now

List of important and relevant researchpublications:

1. M R Ramesh Kumar, S.Sankar and Chris Reason, 2012: Is an Onset Vortex Important for

monsoon Onset over Kerala? Theoretical and Applied Climatology, DOI

10.1007/s00704-012-0598-x. Published online on 20 March, 2012.

2. M.R.Ramesh Kumar, A.Devasthale, G.Levy, S.Sankar, S.Bakan, and H.Grassl, 2012. A

multi-sensor climatological view of double ITCZs over the Indian Ocean. International

Journal of Remote Sensing, 33(9), 2925-2936.

3. A.S.Unnikrishnan, M.R.Ramesh Kumar, and Sindhu B., 2011. Tropical Cyclones in the

Bay of Bengal and extreme sea level projections along the east coast of India in a future

climate scenario. Current Science, 101(3), 327-331.

4. S.Sankar, M.R.Ramesh Kumar and Chris Reason, 2011: On the relative roles of El Nino

and Indian Ocean Dipole events on the Monsoon Onset over Kerala. Theoretical and

Applied Climatology, 103, 359-374..

5. M.R.Ramesh Kumar and SyamSankar, 2010. Impact of global warming on cyclonic

storms over north Indian Ocean. Indian Journal of Marine Sciences, 39(4), pp.516-520.

6. M.R.Ramesh Kumar and P.Byju, 2010: A Multi Sensor study of conditions leading to

formnation of a cyclone over the Arabian Sea during 5-9 May, 2004. International Journal

of Remote Sensing, 31, 4683-4697..

7. M.R.Ramesh Kumar, Anu K Babu and Chris Reason, 2009. On the Role of Convective

Systems over the Northwest Pacific and MonsoonActivity over the Indian subcontinent.

Meteorological Applications. 16, 353-360.

8. M.R.Ramesh Kumar, R. Krishnan, S. Sankar ,A.S.Unnikrishnan , and D.S.Pai, 2009.

Increasing trend of “break-monsoon” conditionsover India - Role of ocean-atmosphere

processes in the Indian Ocean, IEEE Geoscience and Remote Sensing Letters, 6, 2,

332336.

9. M.R. Ramesh Kumar, S Sankar, Chris Reason, 2009: An Investigation into the Conditions

Leading to Monsoon Onset over Kerala. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 95, 69-82.

10. K.Satheesan, A.Sarkar, A.Parekh, M.R.Ramesh Kumar, Y.Kuroda, 2007: Comparison of

wind data from Quikscat and buoys in the Indian Ocean, International Journal of Remote

Sensing, 28 (10), 2375-2382.

11. M.R.Ramesh Kumar, S.M.Pednekar, M.Katsumata, M.K.Antony, Y.Kuroda,

A.S.Unnikrishnan, 2005: Seasonal variation of diurnal cycle of rainfall in the eastern

equatorial Indian Ocean, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 85(1-2), 2006, 117-122.

12. M.R.Ramesh Kumar, S.S.C.Shenoi and J.Schulz, 2005: Role of convection over

equatorialtrough on the summer monsoon activity over India International Journal of

Remote Sensing, 26(1), 4747-4762.

13. M.R.Ramesh Kumar, S. Sankar, K. Fennig, D.S.Pai and J. Schulz, 2005: Air Sea

Interaction over the Indian Ocean during the Contrasting Monsoon Years 2002 and 2003,

Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L14821, doi: 10.1029/2005GL022587.

14. M.R.Ramesh Kumar and O.P.Sreejith, 2005: On Some Aspects of Precipitation over

Tropical Indian Ocean Using Satellite Data, International Journal of Remote Sensing, 26,

8, 1717-1728.

15. M.R.Ramesh Kumar and Uma Prabhu Desai, 2004: A new criterion for identifying breaks

in monsoon conditions over the Indian subcontinent, Geo Physical Research Letters, 31,

L18201, doi: 10.1029/2004GL020562.

16. M.R.Ramesh Kumar, 2004: Forecasting of Onset of southwest Monsoon Over Kerala

coast using satellite data, IEEE Geosciences and Remote Sensing Letters, Vol.1.

No.4.October, 265-267.

17. Swapna P. and M.R.Ramesh Kumar, 2002: Role of low level flow on the summer

monsoon rainfall over the Indian subcontinent during two contrasting monsoon years,

Journal of Indian Geophysical Union, Vol6, No.3, 123-137.

18. M.R.Ramesh Kumar and J.Schulz, 2002: Analysis of freshwater Flux Climatology over

the Indian Ocean Using the HOAPS Data. RemoteSensing of Environment, 80(3), 363372.

19. H. Grassl, V. Jost, M.R.Ramesh Kumar, J.Schulz, Peter Bauer and Peter Schlussel, 2000:

The Hamburg Ocean-Atmosphere Parameters and Fluxes from Satellite Data (HOAPS):

A Climatological Atlas of Satellite-Derived Air-Sea-Interaction Parameters over the

Oceans, Report No. 312, Max-Planck-Instut fur Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany, pp.

132.

20. M.R.Ramesh Kumar, S.S.C.Shenoi and P.Schluessel, 1999: On the role of cross equatorial

flow on the summer monsoon rainfall over India using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data.

Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 70,201-213.

21. M.R.Ramesh Kumar, P.M.Muraleedharan and P.V.Sathe, 1999: On the role sea surface

temperature variability over the tropical Indian Ocean in relation summer monsoon using

satellite data. Remote Sensing of Environment, 70, 238-244

22. P.Divakar Naidu, M.R.Ramesh Kumar and V.RameshBabu, 1999: Time Space variations

of monsoonal upwelling along the west and east coasts of India. Continental Shelf

Research, 19(4), 559-572.

23. M.R.Ramesh Kumar and P.Schluessel, 1998: Air-sea interaction over the Indian Ocean

during two contrasting monsoon years 1987 and 1988 studied with satellite data.

Theoretical and Applied climatology, 60, 219-231.

24. M.R. Ramesh Kumar and T.G. Prasad, 1997: Annual and Interannual variation of

Precipitation over the tropical Indian Ocean using satellite data, Journal of Geophysical

Research, Oceans, 102, C8, 18,519-18,527.

25. M.R. Ramesh Kumar and J.S. Sastry, 1996: On the role of surface heat budget parameters

over the tropical Indian Ocean in relation to the summer monsoon. IAPSO Publication

Scientifique No. 36, pp 54-62.

26. P.M. Muraleedharan, M.R. Ramesh Kumar and L.V. GangadharaRao, 1995: A Note on

poleward undercurrent along the southwest coast of India, Continental Shelf Research, 15,

no. 2/3, pp 165-14.

27. M.R. Ramesh Kumar and A.A. Fernandes, 1994: On some statistical properties of surface

meteorological parameters in the Arabian Sea, Indian Journal of Marine Sciences, 23, pp

8-13.

28. M.R. Ramesh Kumar, P.M. Muraleedharan and P.V. Sathe, 1993: Precipitable water over

the tropical Indian Ocean using satellite data - A case study, Boundary Layer Meteorology,

54, 325-331.

29. M.R. Ramesh Kumar, 1993: Air-sea interaction during summer monsoon period 1979.

Satellite Remote Sensing of Oceanic Environment, Jones, Sugimori and Stewart (Eds), pp

258-263.

30. M.R. Ramesh Kumar and J.S. Sastry, 1990: Relationship between sea surface

temperature, southern oscillation, position of the 500 mb ridge along 75°E and the

Indian monsoon rainfall, Journal of Meteorological Society of Japan, 68(6), pp 741-745.

31. M.R. Ramesh Kumar and J.S. Sastry, 1990: Air-sea interaction over the tropical Indian

Ocean during several contrasting monsoon seasons, Proceedings of Indian Academy of

Sciences (Earth and Planetary Sciences), 99(3), pp 393-404.

32. M.R. Ramesh Kumar, Y. Sadhuram, G.S. Michael and L.V. Gangadhara Rao, 1990:

Structure of the marine boundary layer over north western Indian Ocean during 1983

summer monsoon, Boundary Layer Meteorology, 52(1-2), pp 177-191.

33. M.R. Ramesh Kumar and L.V. Gangadhara Rao, 1990: Annual means statistics of the

surface fluxes of the tropical Indian Ocean, Boundary Layer Meteorology, 51(3), pp 299-

312.

34. P.N. Vinayachandran and M.R. Ramesh Kumar, 1990: Water Vapour flux divergence over

the Arabian Sea using satellite data, Boundary Layer Meteorology, 51(1-2), pp 199-209.


Participated in 60 National/International Seminars/Workshops/Summer Schools during the

last 25 years. Also participated in several field experiments both national and International

and Scientific Cruises.


I am actively involved in collaboration with scientists from the Indian Institute of Tropical

Meteorology, India Meteorology Department as well with the Faculty from the Department

of Atmospheric Sciences and Physical Oceanography, of CUSAT, Kochi. I am also involved

in collaboration with scientists from MPI, Hamburg, Germane and Department of

Oceanography, University of Cape Town, South Africa.

Research Guidance:

No. of Ph.D. students enrolled/ completed: 3 students enrolled .One completed.

No. of Graduate/Postgraduate students enrolled/ completed:

Guided 5 students for their graduate Dissertations, 10 students for their M.Sc. Dissertations

and 3 for their M.Tech. Projects.

9. List of supplementary documents:

(e.g., Authorization letter from the Head of the organization, endorsements etc.)

Endorsement from the participating Institutes namely Cochin University of Science &

Technology and National Institute of Oceanography appended.

10. References Cited:

1. Duvel J.P., Remy Roca and Vialard J. (2004) Ocean Mixed Layer Temperature variations

induced by intraseasonal convective perturbations over the Indian Ocean, J. of Atmospheric

Science, 61, 1004-1023

2. P.V. and Sabin T.P. (2008): An ocean-atmosphere interaction mechanism for the active break

cycle of the Asian summer monsoon, Climate Dynamics, 30, 553-556, DOI

10.1007/s00382-007-0305-2

3. Joseph P.V. and Jayakumar A. (2012): Role of ocean-atmosphere interaction on

predictabilityof the monsoon intra-seasonal oscillation, Invited lecture IITM Pune Golden

Jubilee Conference on “Opportunities and challenges in monsoon prediction in a changing

climate (OCHAMP),”, 21-25 Feb 2012, in Volume of Extended Abstracts.

4. Joseph Susmitha, A.K.Sahai and B.N.Goswami (2009): Eastward propagating MJO during

boreal summer and Indian monsoon droughts, Climate Dynamics, 32, 1139-1153, DOI

10.1007/s00382-008-0412-8

5. Sengupta D., Goswami B.N. and Senan R. (2001): Coherent intraseasonal oscillations of

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Declaration from the Head of the collaborating Institution

It is certified that

1. The institution agrees to participate in this collaborative project

2. The institution shall provide infrastructure and necessary facility for

implementing the collaborative project.

3. The institution assumes to undertake the financial and other management

responsibility for part of the project work to be carried at their institution.

Signature & Seal of the Head of the Institution.

Declaration and Attestation

We certify that all the details declared here are correct and complete. We hereby agree to abide by the rules and regulations of MoES research grants and accept to be governed by all the terms and conditions laid down for this purpose. We also certify that we have not submitted this or a similar Project Proposal elsewhere for any financial support.

1. Signature of PI :

Baby Chakrapani

2. Signature of Co-PIs :

Dr. P.V.Joesph Dr. M.R.Ramesh Kumar

Date:

Certificate of the Heads of the Department and Institution

We certify that the necessary institutional facilities are available and will be provided for the implementation of this research proposal being submitted to the MoES for funding. Full account of expenditure will be rendered by the institution yearly.

Dr.C.A.Babu, Dr.A.Ramachandran,

Head of the Department Registrar

Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Cochin University of Science & Technology

Cochin University of Sci. &Tech. Kochi-682 022

Kochi-682016.

role of ocean in the extended range prediction of …€¦ · 1.2 broader impact of proposed work:...

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