sandy’s fury david a. robinson professor, department of geography & new jersey state...
TRANSCRIPT
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Sandy’s Fury
David A. RobinsonProfessor, Department of Geography &
New Jersey State ClimatologistRutgers University
June 5, 2013
DIMACS/CCICADA Workshop on S&T
Innovations in Hurricane Sandy Research
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Wind field: October 29
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Satellite image Tuesday, Oct. 30, 2012 (AP Photo/NOAA)
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Greene, C.H., J.A. Francis, and B.C. Monger. 2013. Superstorm Sandy: A series of unfortunate events? Oceanography 26(1):8–9, http://dx.doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2013.11.
A unique recipe for disaster
Ingredients
1. Sandy2. Wavy jet stream3. Blocking high4. Deep trough
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Greene, C.H., J.A. Francis, and B.C. Monger. 2013.
Additional ingredients……adding insult to injury
a. Warmer than average sea surface temperaturesb. Landfall close to high tidec. Astronomical high tided. Higher sea level than 50-100 years ago
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• Record low pressure: 946 mb (27.94”)
• 12.71” of rain at Stone Harbor
• Peak gust of 90 mph at Seaside Heights
• Record tidal surge at Sandy Hook 4.3 feet above previous record (14.4 feet above mean low low water)
• Resulting in approximately 40 deaths, coastal devastation, tens of thousands of downed trees with associated damage, and unprecedented disruptions to power, transportation and communication networks
Sandy pummels New Jersey
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Monitoring Sandy • NJ Weather & Climate Network (including 5 minute updates from 50 stations)
• Special web dashboard: 30,000 unique visitors during storm• Over 200 Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network storm obs.
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SandyMinimumPressure
Oct 29, 2012
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SandyTotal
PrecipitationOct 29-31, 2012
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SandyMaximum
Wind GustsOct 29-30, 2012
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Sandy Hook, NJoff line at 13.5 feet, estimated surge 14.4 feet
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Hoboken
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Union Beach
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Keansburg
Sonia Szczesna
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Seaside Heights
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Holgate, LBIPhoto: Will Randall-Goodwin
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Wildwood
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Looking north
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A location on LBI where the dune was established and survived
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Bradley Beach: reestablishing the dune
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Hundreds of thousands of trees down……
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Impacts on transportation
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How well was Sandy forecasted?
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Forecast October 26: 00:00Z
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10/23 10/24
10/25 10/26
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Future Sandys?
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Rising temperatures
New Jersey's changing and future climate
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Steady or increasing precipitation
New Jersey's changing and future climate
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Increasing variability and extremes
- storms, flood, drought, heat…….
New Jersey's changing and future climate
September 17, 1999 April 16, 2007
March 14, 2010 August 28, 2011
Manville
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Atmospheric circulation
- influences from distant locations
New Jersey's changing and future climate
Francis and Vavrus, 2012
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Rising sea level
New Jersey's changing and future climate
Courtesy of Ken Miller
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So…. future destructive coastal stormsare to be expected……
……..with the atmosphere and ocean becoming primed for a greater frequencyof such events.
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Thanks [email protected]
http://njclimate.org
May 31, 2012 in North Middletownhttp://www.flickr.com/photos/mjs242/