save the planet: eliminate co2 and destroy nuclear wastevandyke.mynetgear.com/nuclear.pdf ·...

22
Save the Planet: Eliminate CO 2 and Destroy Nuclear Waste Introduction Patrick Moore, cofounder of Greenpeace, wrote “nuclear energy may just be the energy source that can save our planet from another possible disaster: catastrophic climate change.... Nuclear energy is the only large-scale, cost-effective energy source that can reduce these emissions [of CO 2 ] while continuing to satisfy a growing demand for power.” a Alternatives are far more expensive, and even with conservation none but solar, alone or together, can do the whole job, — and they don’t do anything about the vexing problem of nuclear waste. Essentially everything you’ve been told about civilian nuclear electric power is wrong. There are solutions to the problems of safety, waste, weapons proliferation, uranium supply, reliability, and cost. The solutions are all embodied in one system, the brainchild of Leonard Koch and his colleagues at Argonne National Laboratory in 1964. A project to demonstrate it completely at realistic scale, leaving absolutely no loose ends, called the Integral Fast Reactor, or IFR [1][2], was funded by the Reagan administration in 1984. Hans Bethe said IFR was “the best fast reactor project that has ever been pursued.” It was canceled by the Clinton administration in 1994, when it was an inch from completion [3], at more cost than finishing it. A single complete and permanent solution to all energy, pollution, nuclear waste, and CO 2 emission problems is within our grasp. All obstacles to that solution are political, abetted and perpetuated by ignorance, intentional falsehoods, hysteria, and opportunistic demagoguery, not scientific, technological or engineering problems. Competition for energy resources is frequently blamed for wars. IFR would eliminate that excuse. There is no time to waste. We really ought to get started. What is IFR IFR is an advanced liquid metal-cooled breeder reactor (ALMR), together with a fuel reprocessing system. The intent of the demonstration project was to “close the fuel cycle,” so that actinides b go into a power plant, and the only waste that comes out is fission products. Actinides only come out to start a new IFR. IFR is inherently safe because of a negative temperature coefficient [4]. Above the design temperature, the hotter the reactor, the slower the reaction, reaching a safe equilibrium even in the absence of control, coolant circulation, or heat sink. IFR is simpler than light-water reactors (LWR), so construction and operating costs are lower. IFR can be fueled with 5%-used LWR fuel and waste from weapons production, thereby consuming a substance of which we are desperately eager to be rid: No need for Yucca Mountain. IFR uses 99% of the energy in the mined uranium instead of 0.6%. It creates its own fuel from abundant non-fissile actinides. There is enough uranium to power the entire world for at least one million years, or five million years if thorium is used in reactors of slightly different design. IFR produces 5% as much waste as LWR. The waste consists entirely of fission products, 80% of which are stable, have half-lives less than one year, or can be destroyed or used in the reactor, and the remainder are less radiotoxic than uranium in nature before only 200–300 years, instead of 300,000 years. IFR fuel is reprocessed on-site, reducing the opportunities for accidents and theft. a http:// www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/04/14/AR2006041401209.html b Actinides are elements from actinium to lawrencium. In a reactor they are thorium (in some reactors), uranium, neptunium, plutonium, americium and curium. Those from neptunium onward are called transuranics. 27 July 2017 Copyright © 2017 [email protected]; all rights reserved Page 1

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Save the Planet Eliminate CO2 and Destroy Nuclear Waste

Introduction

Patrick Moore cofounder of Greenpeace wrote ldquonuclear energy may just be the energy source that cansave our planet from another possible disaster catastrophic climate change Nuclear energy is the onlylarge-scale cost-effective energy source that can reduce these emissions [of CO2] while continuing to satisfya growing demand for powerrdquoa Alternatives are far more expensive and even with conservation none butsolar alone or together can do the whole job mdash and they donrsquot do anything about the vexing problem ofnuclear waste

Essentially everything yoursquove been told about civilian nuclear electric power is wrong There are solutionsto the problems of safety waste weapons proliferation uranium supply reliability and cost

The solutions are all embodied in one system the brainchild of Leonard Koch and his colleagues at ArgonneNational Laboratory in 1964 A project to demonstrate it completely at realistic scale leaving absolutelyno loose ends called the Integral Fast Reactor or IFR [1][2] was funded by the Reagan administration in1984 Hans Bethe said IFR was ldquothe best fast reactor project that has ever been pursuedrdquo It was canceledby the Clinton administration in 1994 when it was an inch from completion [3] at more cost than finishingit

A single complete and permanent solution to all energy pollution nuclear waste and CO2 emission problemsis within our grasp All obstacles to that solution are political abetted and perpetuated by ignoranceintentional falsehoods hysteria and opportunistic demagoguery not scientific technological or engineeringproblems Competition for energy resources is frequently blamed for wars IFR would eliminate that excuse

There is no time to waste We really ought to get started

What is IFR

IFR is an advanced liquid metal-cooled breeder reactor (ALMR) together with a fuel reprocessing systemThe intent of the demonstration project was to ldquoclose the fuel cyclerdquo so that actinidesb go into a powerplant and the only waste that comes out is fission products Actinides only come out to start a new IFR

bull IFR is inherently safe because of a negative temperature coefficient [4] Above the design temperaturethe hotter the reactor the slower the reaction reaching a safe equilibrium even in the absence ofcontrol coolant circulation or heat sink

bull IFR is simpler than light-water reactors (LWR) so construction and operating costs are lower

bull IFR can be fueled with 5-used LWR fuel and waste from weapons production thereby consuming asubstance of which we are desperately eager to be rid No need for Yucca Mountain

bull IFR uses 99 of the energy in the mined uranium instead of 06 It creates its own fuel from abundantnon-fissile actinides There is enough uranium to power the entire world for at least one million yearsor five million years if thorium is used in reactors of slightly different design

bull IFR produces 5 as much waste as LWR The waste consists entirely of fission products 80 of whichare stable have half-lives less than one year or can be destroyed or used in the reactor and theremainder are less radiotoxic than uranium in nature before only 200ndash300 years instead of 300000years

bull IFR fuel is reprocessed on-site reducing the opportunities for accidents and theft

ahttp wwwwashingtonpostcomwp-dyncontentarticle20060414AR2006041401209htmlbActinides are elements from actinium to lawrencium In a reactor they are thorium (in some reactors) uranium neptunium

plutonium americium and curium Those from neptunium onward are called transuranics

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 1

bull Used IFR fuel is just about the most difficult substance from which to make weapons ndash more difficultthan LWR waste No nuclear state makes weapons from used civilian LWR fuel

Electric power production

In 2006 the US produced 787219 gigawatt hours (GWh)a or roughly 90 gigawatt-electric years (GWe-years) of electric energy (roughly 20 of total energy demand) from light-water nuclear reactors using about2000 tons (1818 metric tons or tonnes) of nuclear fuel (mostly enriched uranium) yielding 433000 watthours per gram (Whgm) or 005 GWe-years per tonne

Roughly 1990511 GWh or 227 GWe-years (about 50 of total energy demand) were produced from1053783000 tons of coal yielding 208 Whgm or 237times 10minus7 GWe-years per tonne

Approximately 64000 GWh (an irrelevant 164 of total electricity demand) were produced from 110634000barrels of petroleum (1 2 4 5 6 C converted coke waste oil) yielding 393 Whgm or 448times10minus7

GWe-years per tonne

About 816441 GWh or 93 GWe-years (21 of total energy demand) were produced from 6461615 millionstandard cubic feet of natural gas yielding 487 Whgm or 555times 10minus7 GWe-years per tonne

To produce the same amount of electricity as 1 gram (0001 kg) of LWR fuel which is used with less than5 efficiency requires 208 kg of coal 110 kg of petroleum or 89 kg of natural gas

About 54 GWe-years (lt 12 of demand) were produced from renewable sources primarily hydro

Total US electric energy production was about 450 GWe-years so average electric power demand was about450 GW Peak demand is about twice as much

Total power demand

Total yearly-averaged US power demand (electric and non-electric) is 375 terawatts (TW) Using the ruleof thumb that it takes 3 GW thermal (GWth) to generate 1 GWe current 450 GWe demand is equivalentto 1350 GWth Thus the non-electric demand is 3 750minus 1 350 = 2 400 GWth

Roughly 19 of non-electric demand or 450 GWth arises from the residential and commercial sectorsb

Much of this demand is for space and water heating which could be satisfied directly by electricity Heatpumps would be between two and eight times more efficient than electrical resistance heating or using heatfrom fossil fuels directlyc Using Mitsubishirsquos rating of 46 for its EcoDanBRE model those sectors wouldthus need about 45046 asymp 100 GWe additional electric power if converted completely to electricity

Roughly one third of non-electric demand or 800 GWth arises from the industrial sector Some of that canonly be used in the form of higher-temperature heat than heat pumps can produce (for example in cementmanufacture) Guessing that 500 GWth must remain as heat supplied by resistance or arc at about 100efficiency and the remaining 300 GWth could be replaced by 100 GWe the industrial sector would needabout 500 + 3003 = 600 GWe additional electric power

Many industries need heat at temperatures that can be provided directly from reactors (up to about 1000For 550C) without intermediate conversion to electricity Examples include papermaking food processingplastic processing To the extent these facilities can be co-located with reactors three times higherefficiency can be gained thereby reducing required capacity below 800 GWth

Roughly 48 of non-electric demand or 1150 GWth arises from the transportation sector About 85 ofenergy use in the transportation sector or about 975 GWth is for road rail or pipeline transportd Railand pipeline transport could be immediately converted to electric supply and work is in progress to convert

ahttpwwweiadoegovcneafelectricityepaepateshtmlbhttpwwweiadoegovenergyexplainedindexcfmpage=us_energy_homechttpwwwfuelcellsbhamacukdocumentsreview_of_domestic_heat_pump_coppdfdhttpwwwifpcomcontentdownload575161274819fileIFP-Panorama052009-ConsommationVApdf

Page 2 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

road transport to electric supply The remaining 15 is mostly for airplanes ships and heavy constructionand farm equipment

The efficiency of an electric vehicle starting from the power plant is about 73 (95 transmission efficien-cy times 88 battery charge efficiency times 88 battery discharge efficiency) while the efficiency of an internal-combustion engine is about 15a (but in a series hybrid automobile it approaches 30) Thus the efficiency ofroad transport would be increased by a factor of 49 (7315) by conversion to electricity while efficiencyof rail and pipeline transport would be increased by a factor of 63 (9515) because they donrsquot needbatteries Thus the 975 GWth demand for road rail and pipeline transport would be replaced by anincreased electric power demand of about 97549 asymp 200 GWe This leaves about 175 GWth supplied byliquid hydrocarbon fuels primarily for airplanes ships and heavy construction and farm equipment Liquidhydrocarbon fuels could ultimately be manufactured from energy + CO2 + water using the Fischer-Tropschprocess An especially interesting possibility is to extract carbonates from seawater using the PARC process[5] direct reactor heat at 530 to produce hydrogen using the Cu-Cl process and the Fischer-Tropsch processto produce alkanes

Taking 450 GWe current demand together with 900 GWe new demands for electric power shows that wewould have to expand our electric generating capacity by a factor of about 1350450 = 3 to cover all but 175GWth of our power needs Guessing 50 efficiency of converting electricity to liquid hydrocarbon fuelsb

about 350 GWe would be required to displace the remaining 175 GWth transportation demand for liquidhydrocarbon fuels for a total electric demand of 1700 GWe or about 375 times current capacity

CO2

About 2344 billion tonnes of CO2 were produced in 2006 by US fossil-fueled power plants (1938 from coal0319 from natural gas) Total US emissions were 5894 billion tonnes (1186 from residential 1035 fromcommercial 1658 from industrial 2014 from transportation)c

No CO2 is produced from operation of nuclear reactors although some CO2 is produced by the miningmilling refining fabrication and transportation of uranium fuel and in the construction (and eventualdestruction) of a power plant (mostly from cement manufacture)

Nuclear is a lower carbon emitting option than wind solar or hydroelectric primarily because of the hugeamounts of concrete steel aluminum and plastic needed for those technologiesd

The net of nuclear energy produced less fossil fuel energy consumed is so large that life cycle emissions ofCO2 for the current generation of LWRs are only 3-6 grams of carbon per kilowatt hour (gCkWh) As willbe shown below we have enough uranium already mined and refined to fuel IFR replacements for our LWRfleet for 10000 years to fuel IFR replacements for our entire electric generating capacity for 2000 years orto fuel IFR replacements for our entire energy economy for 530 years Averaged over this time scale withmined uranium used to 100 efficiency instead of 06 life cycle CO2 emissions for nuclear power plantsare only 001-002 gCkWh or about 300000 tonnes per year a reduction of a factor of 50000 from allsources in 2006 Once uranium mining milling and refining start again they would presumably be poweredby electricity from IFR so the CO2 emission rate would be even less

For wind turbines itrsquos 3ndash10 gCkWh For natural gas itrsquos 105ndash163 gCkWh For coal itrsquos 228ndash262 gCkWhde

ahttpwwwelectroautocominfopollmythshtmlbOther fuels such as boron [3] might have higher total system efficiencychttpwwweiadoegovoiaf1605ggrptcarbonhtmldldquoThe Energy Challengerdquo page 117 published by DTI (now BERR httphttpwwwberrgovukfilesfile31890pdf)

in 2007ehttpwwweiagovcneafelectricitypageco2_reportco2emisspdf

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 3

Wind

According to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory [6] the average total land use power density ofwind projects is 3 MWkm2 Utilities observe on average a 21 capacity factor for wind installations [3]giving an effective average wind project power density of 06 MWkm2 Capacity factors will surely decreasebecause high-potential sites are used first

To supply 17 TWe would require 33 of the nationrsquos land area (Alaska excluded) for wind farm projects

W Timothy Liu recognized world wide as an expert on wind says however that wind can never supplymore than 15 of the worldrsquos current total energy needs Professor Frank Shu of the University of Californiaat San Diego estimates worldwide potential is 18 TWea

Solar photovoltaic

The global mean average peak power output of solar panels as of 2014 is about 175 watts per square meter(Wm2) ndash more at the equator less at the poles more in sunny locales less in cloudy ones Assuming a15 capacity factor [3] leaves an effective power flux of 2625 Wm2 or 02625 GWe-yrkm2 per year So togenerate all 4064702 gigawatt hours produced in the US in 2007 would require asymp 17 700 square kilometersof cells To provide 1700 GWe-yr per year would require over 64800 square kilometers of cells plus perhaps10 more for spaces between the racks of collectors No problem Just put solar panels on the roofs ofhomes At 1000 ft2 (90 m2) per home thatrsquos only 721 million homes

By way of comparison the San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station occupied 84 acres (034 km2) andproduced 23 GWe-yr per year or 677 GWe-yrkm2 per year To produce 1700 GWe-yr per year wouldrequire 251 km2

Human activity already uses 25 of the biological output of the land area of the earth exclusive of Antarcticaand Greenland In parts of central and eastern Europe and India it is as high as 60 Converting moreland to solar power and biofuels would effectively increase this fraction thereby depriving the non-humanbiosphere the use of this land

Current photovoltaic cells have to produce energy for over four years to pay back the energy invested inproducing and deploying them As of 2013 photovoltaic and solar thermal sources contribute about 25 ofour total electric power Therefore we would need exponential increase of 25 per year for 17 years to bringthis to 100 of our electric power requirements or 23 years to provide all of our power requirements bywhich time photovoltaic cells would not have added one watt hour to our energy supply The current annualgrowth rate is 57 [3] at which rate we could build enough capacity to supply all of our power needs in 92years but even more time would be needed to repay the energy investment

Since the sun only shines during the day energy would have to be stored for use at night or transmittedfrom halfway around the world At some latitudes it doesnrsquot shine at all during winter so long-distancedistribution would be necessary

Storage is a significant problem to which insufficient attention has been given If all the batteries everproduced were fully charged at sundown (which is impossible because most have been recycled) they wouldnot supply current demand for one night An all-electric automobile fleet would use about 20 of energyoutput An electric automobile can operate for about five hours at full power If the entire electric automobilefleet were fully charged and connected to the grid at sundown it could supply 20 of demand for five hoursThen nobody could drive to work because the batteries would be discharged

Biofuels

The US currently gets 1 of road transportation fuels or about 9 GWth from biofuels using 10 ofcurrently-harvested cropland or about 13 of the nationrsquos land area

ahttpwwwphysicsucsdedu~tmurphyphys239shu_energypdf

Page 4 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

To supply all road rail pipeline ship airplane and heavy equipment fuels would require 1270 of currently-harvested cropland area or 130 of the nationrsquos total land area

Even providing only all ship airplane and heavy equipment fuels from biofuels would require 190 ofcurrently-harvested cropland area or about 18 of the nationrsquos total land area (Alaska included) Whatwould we eat

Currently-harvested cropland area is about 75 of total farmland area It is not possible to harvest 100of farmland Some must remain fallow each year to avoid depletion and some is pasture

Irrational hysteria about nuclear power regretted

Patrick Moore a cofounder of Greenpeace realizes that his view in the 1970rsquos that nuclear power and nuclearweapons are the same thing was naıve He now advocates nuclear power as ldquothe energy source that cansave our planet from another possible disaster catastrophic climate change rdquo ldquoNuclear energy is the onlylarge-scale cost-effective energy source that can reduce these emissions [of CO2] while continuing to satisfya growing demand for power rdquo For his honesty Greenpeace has kicked him outa on page 1

Hersquos not alone James Lovelock father of the Gaia theory Stewart Brand founder of the Whole EarthCatalog the late Bishop Hugh Montefiore founder and director of Friends of the Eartha James Hansenthe outspoken NASA climate scientist Mark Lynas an outspoken critic of nuclear power before learning ofIFR and many other former critics of nuclear power are now nuclear power advocates

Safety of nuclear power in OECD countries

According to the Paul Scherrer Institute Nuclear Energy and Safety Research Divisionbc nobody has diedin any OECD or EU-27 country as a result of the operation of a civilian nuclear electric power generator

Impressive as is the current perfect safety record IFR is a more modern design that incorporates additionalsafety features In particular above the designed operating temperature it has a negative temperaturecoefficient meaning that the hotter the reaction gets the slower it goes ultimately settling down at anequilibrium temperature far below the ldquomeltdownrdquo temperature This depends upon immutable laws ofphysics not upon skill of operators computers pumps or indeed on any moving parts at all other thanthermal expansion of the reactor core

Seven years after the Three Mile Island ac-

800

1000

1200

1400

-100 0 100 200 300 400 500

Time after loss of power (seconds)

Tem

per

atu

re (

oF

)

Maximum fuel claddingtemperature

Figure 1 Core temperature after loss of cooling

cident the prototype of IFR called EBR-IIwas compromised in the same way that theThree Mile Island reactor was compromised(loss of coolant flow) It shut down with-out any damage to the reactor harm to theoperators or release of radioactive materi-als A few hours earlier it had been com-promised in the other known way (loss ofheat sink) Again it shut down gracefully[3] One month later the Chernobyl reactorwas compromised in the second way Ac-cording to Pete Planchon [7] who ran thetests for an invited international audienceldquoBack in 1986 we actually gave a small [20MWe] prototype advanced fast reactor a couple of chances to melt down It politely refused both timesrdquo

aFriends of the Earth forced Bishop Montefiore to resign after he published a pro-nuclear article in a church magazinebhttpswwwpsichneschttpswwwpsichtaRiskENSECURE_Deliverable_D5_7_2_Severe_Accident_Riskspdf page 43

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 5

Three Mile Island

Notwithstanding the hysteria of Jack Lemmon Jane Fonda and Michael Douglas in the movie ldquoThe ChinaSyndromerdquo nobody that is NOBODY was injured by the Three Mile Island accident It was a brilliantsuccess story of careful designa which has since been improved by lessons learned Insurers paid out only$70 million The owners spent a further $973 million on cleanup Nobody has died of a radiation-relatedaccident in the history of the US civilian nuclear electric power reactor programf or civilian nuclear electricpower reactor programs in any OECD or EU-27 country

Chernobyl

Chernobyl was an accident waiting to happen The reactor had an inadequate containment structure it wasan inherently unsafe designb (nobody plans to build another 3 GWth reactor out of charcoal and surround itwith a tin-foil containment shed) and the operators literally (but unintentionally) blew it up by bypassingsafety interlocks and already-inadequate shutdown mechanisms ironically in a rush to get a safety checkdone The 173-page report of the United Nations Scientific Committee for the Effects of Atomic Radiation(UNSCEAR)cd[8] concludes that

bull 134 plant workers and emergency workers suffered Acute Radiation Syndrome (ARS) from high dosesof radiation Two workers were killed by falling debris One died from coronary thrombosis

bull In the first few months after the accident 28 ARS victims died

bull Although another 19 ARS sufferers had died by 2006 those deaths had different causes not usuallyassociated with radiation exposure

bull Skin injuries and cataracts were among the most common consequences in ARS survivors

bull Although several hundred thousand people as well as the emergency workers were involved in recoveryoperations there is no consistent evidence of health effects that can be attributed to radiation exposureapart from indications of increased incidence of leukemia and of cataracts among those who receivedhigher doses

bull 6000 cases of thyroid cancer were reported between 1991 and 2005 in affected areas It is not possibleto state scientifically that radiation caused a particular cancer in a particular individual By 2005only fifteen of those cases had been fatal

bull Radiation doses to the general public in the three most affected countries (Ukraine Belarus Russia)were relatively low and most residents ldquoneed not live in fear of serious health consequencesrdquo In themost affected areas the average additional dose over the period 1986-2005 is approximately equivalentto that of one computed tomography scan

bull There is no ongoing increased risk of solid tumors or blood cancers

The World Nuclear Association attributes 30 deaths to the accidente ldquoTragic as those deaths were theypale in comparison to the more than 5000 coal-mining deaths worldwide every yearrdquo says Mooref

ahttpwwwworld-nuclearorginfoinf36htmlbThe Soviet RBMK reactor design is based upon the design of a military reactor which was in turn based upon de-

sign documents for the US Hanford reactors stolen from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory before the Hanford reactorswere built optimized for production of plutonium for weapons purposes scaled up for civilian nuclear power production(httpwwwworld-nuclearorginfoinf31html)

chttpwwwunscearorgunscearenchernobylhtmldhttpwwwunisunviennaorgunisenpressrels2011unisinf398htmlehttpwwwworld-nuclearorginfoSafety-and-SecuritySafety-of-PlantsChernobyl-Accident ndash see Appendix 1

Sequence of eventsfhttpwwwwashingtonpostcomwp-dyncontentarticle20060414AR2006041401209html

Page 6 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

More to the point Chernobyl was a steam explosion followed by a hydrogen explosiona followed by agraphite fire Although a test reactor at Idaho National Laboratory was intentionally destroyed by promptcriticalityb it is impossible for a municipal nuclear reactor licensed in an OECD or EU-27 country to generatea nuclear explosion IFR being liquid-metal cooled has no water in the core and is not graphite moderatedA steam explosion a hydrogen explosion or a graphite fire is impossible in the core of an IFR

Fukushima

Despite widespread hysteria a reportc from the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of AtomicRadiation (UNSCEAR) presented to the UN General Assembly in October 2013 [9] shows that nobody waskilled injured or made ill by the destruction of the reactors at Fukushima by the earthquake and tsunamiand nobody will be

From Page 9 section 2 ldquoDose Assessmentrdquo para 29 ldquoThe Japanese people receive an effective dose of radiationfrom naturally occurring sources of on average about 21 millisieverts (mSv) annually and a total of about170 mSv over their lifetimesrdquo

From page 11 section 3 ldquoHealth Implicationsrdquo para 38 ldquoNo radiation-related deaths or acute diseases have beenobserved among the workers and general public exposed to radiation from the accidentrdquo

para 40 ldquoFor adults in Fukushima Prefecture the Committee estimates [the increase in] average lifetime effectivedoses to be of the order of 10 mSv or less a discernible increase in cancer incidence in this populationthat could be attributed to radiation exposure from the accident is not expectedrdquo

For comparison the dose from an abdominal and pelvic CT scan repeated with and without contrast wouldbe about 30 mSv or about ten yearsrsquo worth of average normal background radiation This increases lifetimecancer risk from 1 in 5 to 1005 in 5 Yearly dose on the Tibetan plateau is 13-20 mSv In areas of monazitedeposits in Brazil and India doses exceed 36 mSvyear

Nuclear power reactor waste

Foremost among the benefits of IFR beyond enhanced inherent safety the amount of waste is a factor of 20less than the amount produced by LWRs Most IFR waste is dangerously radioactive for five years and theremainder for a few hundred years instead of a few hundred thousand years [1]

The 2000 tons of used fuel removed from US LWRs per year are currently considered waste but are actuallya valuable resource because only 5 of their energy content has been extracted

Used fuel has a density of about 11 gramscm3 or about 8 tonsyd3 As of 2006 total US commercial fueldischarges amounted to about 59160 tonnesd or about 7400 cubic yards of accumulated ldquowasterdquo This isalready enough for 8ndash10 Yucca Mountains If piled on a 3000 square yard football field it would be 74feet deep (but it would melt) The 100000000 tons of eternally-toxic solid wastee from operation of UScoal-fired power plants in 2006 alone would be about 74000 feet or about 14 miles deepf amounting to 740miles in fifty years

aSteam reacted with zirconium fuel pin cladding to produce hydrogenbNuclear fission produces two populations of neutrons those emitted within about ten nanoseconds (prompt neutrons) and

those emitted up to several seconds later (delayed neutrons) If critical neutron flux arises from prompt neutrons it is notpossible to control the reaction

chttpwwwunscearorgdocsGAreportsA-68-46_e_V1385727pdfdhttpwwweiadoegovcneafnuclearspent_fuelussnfdatahtml reports LWR waste of 42750 tonnes through 2002

httpwwweiadoegovemeuaertxtstb0902xls reports 631 GWe-yr nuclear production 2003ndash2009 and 16 TWe-yr from1957ndash2002 Assuming the same 26718 tonnesTWe-yr 1957ndash2002 rate for 2003ndash2009 gives 16860 additional tonnes

eAccording to httpwwwornlgovinfoornlreviewrev26-34textcolmainhtml there is 163 times more energy inthe waste from coal-fired power plants than in the coal that was burned 47 tonnes of uranium and 116 tonnes of thorium perGWe-yr about 0036 of a coal-fired power plantrsquos solid waste Power plants account for only 74 of coal combustion

fAccording to httpwwwtfhrcgovhnr20recyclewastecbabs1htm density is 10125ndash135 tonsyd3

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 7

In addition to the 5-used-fuel ldquowasterdquo there are about 900000 tons of depleted-uranium ldquowasterdquo left overfrom the enrichment process containing more than 90 of the energy in the uranium that was mined

The rate at which waste generates heat is a more important factor than its volume With transuranicspresent ndash as in what we currently call ldquowasterdquo ndash the long-term capacity of a repository is determined by theheat those transuranics will generate millennia hence With them removed the primary determining factorbecomes heat generated by 137Cs and 90Sr With transuranics removed but 137Cs and 90Sr remaining thecapacity of a repository is increased by a factor of about five compared to the current technology With only137Cs and 90Sr remaining the capacity is enormously increased [1]

A reactor (IFR or otherwise) produces about 1 tonne of fission products per GWe-year The current USLWR fleet produces about 90 GWe-year per year thereby generating about 90 tonnes of fission productsper year about 5 of the total ldquowasterdquo or about 300 milligrams per American Radioactive 137Cs and90Sr amount to about 39 kg per GWe-year Not all isotopes of caesium and strontium are radioactive andisotopic separation is costly so it makes more sense to consider total caesium and strontium fission productswhich amount to 92 kgGWe-year about 83 Tonnesyr or about 24 milligrams per American per year Ifall those fission products within the 59160 tonnes of ldquowasterdquo accumulated from 1957 until 2006 were spreadon a football field the pile would be about 044 inches deep A pile of all fission products including thosethat are nonradioactive or have very short half lives would be 48 inches deep (but it would melt)

If the current American supply of LWRs were replaced by IFRs the stream of ldquowasterdquo would be reduced from1818 to 90 tonnes per year and if left mixed instead of separated those 90 tonnes would be less radiotoxicthan mined uranium before 200ndash300 years instead of 300000 years as for LWR ldquowasterdquo

The nonradioactive short-lived and long-lived fission products could be separated Strontium and caesiumconstitute 9 of fission products 6 of fission products (99Tc and 129I) have very long half lives but canbe transmuted to short-lived isotopes (1546 seconds and 1236 hours) by neutron absorption within thereactor thereby effectively destroying them 93Zr another 2 of fission products can be recycled into fuelpin cladding or alloying (where it doesnrsquot matter that itrsquos radioactive and the radioactivity is low-energybeta ndash electron ndash emission anyway) The remaining 89 are less radiotoxic than mined uranium before five toten years The stream requiring long-term storage (strontium and caesium) would thereby be substantiallyreduced to about 92 kgGWe-yr The specific activity (heat generation per kilogram) of the remainderwould be reduced Other fission products (primarily 137Cs and 90Sr) could in principle be destroyed byneutron transmutation but it takes longer than their normal decay Even if they are simply stored howevertheir specific activity is so low that storage is not a significant problem At an average of $16 milliontonne(some much higher) the appreciable commercial value of many fission productsa reduces the storage problemeven further

If all current US electric power generating capacity were replaced with IFR the stream of fission productswould amount to 450 tonnes per year of which 41 tonnes require long-term custody This is less than onequarter the quantity of 5-used fuel that is generated by the LWRs that supply about 20 of our presentelectric power needs

A 17 TWe energy economy powered by IFRs would produce 1700 tonnes of fission products per year orabout 65 less than the 1818 tonnes of 5-used fuel removed from the LWRs that currently supply onlyabout 53 of our energy needs Long-lived fission products (mostly 93Zr and 135Cs) amount to about 131kg per GWe-year or 223 tonnes (730 milligrams per American) altogether per year 93Zr could be recycledinto fuel-pins so it neednrsquot be stored 93Zr and 135Cs would occupy about 121 yd3 or about 14 inch ifspread on a football field They have such low specific activity that they are not considered to be dangerousIf 133Cs (stable) 134Cs (2065y) and 137Cs (3008y) are not removed the amount is 269 yd3 per year

Fission products with half-lives less than thirty years are less radiotoxic than mined natural uranium before200ndash300 years so custody is simple for them Production and radioactive decay offset each other expo-nentially approaching an asymptote of about 584 tonnes of radioactive material per GWe (not GWe-year)If stable decay products are continuously removed a constant capacity is needed for radioactive materialstorage preferably co-located with each IFR

That is storage and disposal are not problems and therefore IFR waste is not a problem

ahttpbrcgove-mailsAugust10Commercial Value of 1 Metric ton of used fuelpdf

Page 8 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

Refer to the appendices for more details

Availability of nuclear fuel

For LWRs the concentration of 235U the fissile isotope is typically enriched from the natural 071 toabout 42 leaving behind a supply of uranium depleted in 235U that is about 57 times the amount ofldquoreactor graderdquo enriched uranium Combining this and the 4-5 fuel efficiency of LWR we extract lessthan 06 of the energy in mined uranium In a reactor some of the 238U is transmuted into 239Pu andother transuranics which are directly usable as IFR fuel In an IFR energy economy once started thosetransuranics rather than 235U provide much of the fission energy and the neutrons needed to transmute 238Uinto more transuranics That is (a) enrichment is not necessary and (b) the currently left-behind depleteduranium is valuable as future fuel

Using a rule of thumb that fissioning 09 kg of actinides yields 1 GWth-day of energy and generating 1 GWerequires 3 GWth to be expended 1 GWe-yr requires 36525 times 3 times 09 = 981 kg asymp 1 tonne of actinides tobe converted to fission products If mined uranium were used to 100 capacity instead of 06 total USpower demand of about 1700 GWe would require about 1700 tonnes of new uranium per year

IFRs could use the current US supply of LWR ldquowasterdquo a substance of which we are desperately eager tobe rid as fuel If nothing is done other than to build an IFR to replace each LWR as it reaches the endof its useful lifea about 50 tonnes of start-up fuel per IFR plus one tonne per year of make-up uraniumthereafterb would be needed That is assuming there are 900000 tonnes of LWR ldquowasterdquo on hand (usedfuel plus depleted uranium) there is enough fuel from that alone for about 10000 years without miningmilling refining or enriching any new uranium

If all current US electric generating capacity were replaced with IFRs about 450 tonnes of makeup fuelwould be needed per year that is there is enough fuel for about 2000 years If the entire energy economywere powered by IFR about 1700 tonnes per year would be needed that is there is enough fuel from currentLWR ldquowasterdquo alone for almost 530 years Is it really ldquowasterdquo

Uranium is four times more common than tin and ten times more common than silver Currently knownreserves of uranium in ore of current commercial grade contain about five million tonnes of the metalc Thatis enough for about 4300 years if used in 90 GWe capacity of US LWRs or about 4800 years if all 1700GWe US power demand were supplied by IFRs Current total worldwide energy demand is about fourtimes US energy demand so if the entire world were to be powered by IFRs at current demand there isenough uranium counting only known reserves profitably recoverable at $138kgU for about 1200 years

The picture isnrsquot so bleak however because the efficiency of use of uranium by IFRs means the fuel costper kWh would be the same as for LWRs at $1380006 asymp $23000kgU or about 0001centkWh This makesit economically feasible to use lower grade ores or more importantly to extract uranium from seawaterwhere there is estimated to be about 45 billion tonnes this is enough for more than a million years ofcurrent worldwide energy demand Even this however is a substantial under-estimate because uraniumis continuously flowing into the oceans from rivers That is uranium alone is an essentially inexhaustibleresource Thorium which could in principle serve as fertile future fuel is four times more common thanuranium so even without river inflow all current worldwide power needs could be supplied for about fivemillion years using nuclear fission Nuclear fission is an effectively inexhaustible energy resource

Weapons proliferation

The ldquoIntegralrdquo in IFR means that the entire system including fuel reprocessing is integrated in one facilityActinides go into an IFR none come out except to start a new IFR Opportunities for theft of partly-used

aWe wouldnrsquot replace LWRs prematurely because the IFR system functions symbiotically with the current fuel cyclebIFR fuel has to be asymp 20 fissile (mainly PU-239) and 80 fertile (U-238) Once an IFR has been loaded it can generate its

own fissile material from fertile material so all it would need to keep running is one tonne of unenriched uranium per GWe-yearc httpwwwworld-nuclearorginfoinf75html

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 9

fuel would be reduced because it would not be transported to a separate facility for processing

Unlike LWRs an IFR power economy once started does not need its uranium fuel to be enriched in 235UThis means that it is not necessary to have any facility to enrich uranium for other than military purposesA reactor owner does need however either ironclad international guarantees of assured fuel supply or theability to reprocess partly used fuel

The ability to reprocess fuel implies the presence of a cadre of professionals who are familiar with most of thetechniques for making weapons-grade materials The mixture of actinides taken out of IFR for reprocessingpresents more difficult radiation thermal chemical and metallurgical problems to would-be weaponeersthan those taken from LWR It is unsuitable for direct use in weapons primarily because of the presenceof 243Am 241Pu and non-fissionable 238Pu 240Pu and 242Pu but is admirably suited as IFR fuel 241Puemits 50 times more heat 5000 times more neutrons and 100 times more gamma radiation than 239PuThis could damage a weapon or cause predetonation and makes maintenance of fine mechanical tolerancesdifficult Expensive remote assembly is mandatory Separating 239Pu from nearby isotopes is more difficultthan separating 238U from 235U first because the mass difference is smaller and second because synthesizingthe gaseous compound PuF6 needed for centrifugal or gas diffusion isotope separation is difficult Eventhough the problem of extracting weapons-grade materials from LWR is easier than for IFR nobody hasdone so Every nuclear weapons program has depended upon enriched uranium or upon purpose-builtreactors optimized to produce 239Pu and these have been nation-scale projects not backyard garage-scaleprojects that a terrorist cell might successfully undertake The simple conclusion is that used LWR fuel isjust about the most difficult material from which to produce nuclear weapons [3] A Lawrence LivermoreNational Laboratory study [10] concluded that spent IFR fuel cannot be used to make a nuclear weaponwithout significant further processing

Even if the difficulties of producing weapons from used reactor fuel could be overcome IFR presents nonew problems of weapons proliferation because reprocessing and enrichment are not substantially differentfrom the standpoint of international oversight No countryrsquos desire or ability to produce nuclear weaponshas ever been affected by any other countryrsquos decision to reprocess or not to reprocess used municipalreactor fuel Every advanced industrial country could in principle produce nuclear weapons independentlyof any other countryrsquos decision to reprocess or not to reprocess used municipal reactor fuel If a countrycannot be trusted with this technology do not sell reactors or fuel reprocessing systems to them The samelong-distance transmission that would be required for solar power would serve their needs

Costs

GE estimates their version of IFR known as S-PRISMa can be built for about $15-2W or $22W after a90 capacity factor is incorporated [11] A GEHitachi consortium estimates they could produce IFR for$12-14W [3] The Diablo Canyon generating station produces electricity for 5cent per kWh The Palo Verdestation was constructed for $179W and produces electricity for 43cent per kWh

T Boone Pickens proposed to build a 4 GWe wind farm The estimated cost ballooned to $3W or $15Wafter incorporating a 21 capacity factor [3] The project was abandoned The Sacramento Municipal UtilityDistrict (SMUD) reports a 15 capacity factor for solar photovoltaic ldquoNo system with capacity factors thislow is a viable energy producing systemrdquo [11] After incorporating these capacity factors the effectiveconstruction costs increase to $4000-$8500kWe for wind and $16000-$60000kWe for solar SMUDestimates a 69-year financial payback for solar photovoltaicb Because wind and solar are diffuse sources$11-13 trillion would be needed for grid upgrades [3] adding another $750kWe to the construction costBecause they are diffuse and erratic sources additional costs for storage would be necessary

In 2017 the lowest-price solar cells cost $180 per peak watt With 15 capacity factor this is $12 peraverage watt Amortized over 25 years at 5 and deducting the four-plus year energy payback capital costalone is 117cent per kWh (181cent at 10) The GVEA 40 battery in Fairbanks Alaska is the largest utility-scale

aSuper Power Reactor Inherently Safe ModularbLifetime is only 30ndash40 years See httpwwwostigovbridgeservletspurl755637-oDWEJRwebviewable755637pdf

or httpwwwglobalspeccomLearnMoreOptics_Optical_ComponentsOptoelectronicsPhotovoltaic_Cells

Page 10 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

storage battery It weighs 1200 tonnes provides 10 MWh storage and cost $350Wh Amortized over fiveyears this is 57centkWha To have constant output the panel capacity needs to be twice the demand ndash halffor immediate use and half to charge batteries so the capital cost for cells plus storage is 291cent per kWhThis does not include mounting transportation operation maintenance land recycling or grid upgradesThe equation used to calculate amortized cost is

A(n) = rA(nminus 1)minus p

where A(0) is the initial cost per watt and A(n) is the amount remaining to be paid after n payments ofp dollars at an interest rate of 100(r minus 1) per payment period Solving this equation for A(n) settingA(n) = 0 and solving for p gives

p = A(0) rnr minus 1

rn minus 1

The cost per watt hour is pH where H is hours per payment period If the payment period is one yearand power is provided continuously H is 8766 (36525times24) Because solar panels have a 45 year energypayback period the final value needs to be multiplied by n(nminus 45) where n is years

The following table compares construction costs for eight renewable sources [3] Costs are per peak kWenot average kWe The capacity factor is not included

Cost Cost Cost CostSource $kWe Source $kWe Source $kWe Source $kWeWind (onshore) 800 Wind (offshore) 1700 Hydro 2000 Geothermal 2100Biomass 2300 Solar (thermal) 2400 Tidal 2800 Solar (PV) 5900

The following table compares operating and construction costs for six electric power technologies [3] [12][13] External grid upgrade and storage costs are not included Since 1981 nuclear power utilities havebeen paying 01centkWh into the Federal Nuclear Waste Fund so LWR decommissioning and ldquowasterdquo handlingcosts are included as internal costs

Operating Average Effective FederalCost Construction Capacity Construction Life Delivered Subsidy

Fuel centkWh Cost $kWe Factor Cost $kWedagger (yrs) centkWhDagger centkWhlowast

LWR Nuclear 49 1000-2000 gt 90 1111-2222 50 515ndash541 0210Coal 60-63 1000-1500 gt 90 1111-1667 50 625ndash668 0056Hydro 40-80 2000 asymp 33 6000 100 469ndash869 0136Gas 76-92 400-800 gt 90 444-888 30 777ndash954 0060Wind 49-100 1000-2000 asymp 21 4762-9524 20 762ndash1543 3533Solar PV 150-300 6000-9000 asymp 15 40000-60000 30 3021ndash5282 23131daggerConstruction cost capacity factorDaggerOperating cost + construction cost ( capacity factor times lifetime ) Amortization not includedlowasthttpwwweiagovanalysisrequestssubsidy tables ES4 and ES5 for 2013

Particulate emissions alone from coal-fired power plants cost $165 billion [3] and cause 30100 prematuredeaths 603000 asthma attacks and 5130000 lost work days per year in the United States alone [14]

Nuclear power has the lowest delivered costs in ten of twelve countries studied [15] (India China and Russiawere not included) The two that did not have the lowest costs were the United States and Korea Thereport did not address the significant costs in the United States of protracted litigation and continuouslyrevised regulations and slow licensing of individual reactors It would be helpful if the Nuclear RegulatoryCommission were to adopt the French system of licensing reactor designs instead of individual reactors IFRs

aProf Nate Lewis in a private seminar Where will we get our energy at Caltech Jet Propulsion Laboratory estimated40-50centkWh

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 11

would be less expensive to build and operate than current technology because they are simpler standardizeddesigns instead of complicated one-off designs [3] The system is further substantially simplified because thecoolant operates at atmospheric pressure instead of 160 atmospheres and it absorbs essentially all neutronsthat escape the core so special alloys and over-designing are not needed to compensate for containmentvessel embrittlement caused by neutron damage and there are much fewer radioactive structural neutronactivation products

When external costs are included nuclear costs are estimated [16] to be about one tenth as much as coalCO2 emissions are explicitly excluded from costs of fossil-fuel systems Nuclear utilities have been paying01centkWh into the Federal Waste Disposal Fund since 1981 for used nuclear fuel disposal and reactor decom-missioning these costs are included as internal costs for LWR The radiological cost of mining is includedbut for IFR that would be irrelevant since there is already enough uranium above ground for several cen-turies For IFR fuel would be cheaper than free for a few hundred years because it would consume the LWRldquowasterdquo of which we are desperately eager to be rid and disposal of IFR waste would be far less expensivethan disposal of 5-used LWR fuel so IFR must have much lower than one tenth the operating cost of coal

The United States has already invested $8 Billion in the Yucca Mountain repository It is estimated to cost$436 Billion to complete [3] and current waste would require about 8-10 times more capacity than YuccaMountain would have at completion IFR would make Yucca Mountain irrelevant and is even more importantnow that the Obama administration has canceled Yucca Mountain Why is the Nevada Congressionaldelegation not insisting that the IFR demonstration project be restarted

Tony Blairrsquos government commissioned a study by Sir Nicholas Stern former vice president and chiefeconomist for the World Bank He recommended committing 1 of global GDP to reduce CO2 emissions to25-70 below current levels by mid century and that increased extreme weather costs alone could reach1 of GDP [3] For the United States that amount of todayrsquos GDP would be $290 billion per year In thenext section we estimate that producing an energy economy entirely powered by IFR could be accomplishedin fewer than 65 years Spending $290 billion per year on CO2 remediation during that interval would cost$188 trillion (in todayrsquos dollars) At $22BGWe for IFR 17 TWe would cost $374 trilliona ndash 20 asmuch ndash and would essentially eliminate CO2 emissions not reduce them by 25-70

What can be done

As admirable as they are conservation biofuels wind geothermal tides waves ocean currents and hydroalone or together cannot power any economy nor can they destroy the 59160 tonnes of ldquowasterdquo from thefirst 53 years of US LWR operations and more accumulated since 2006 Wind and solar are much moreexpensive than IFR There are no good hydro sites that have been exploited A 2017 study [17] concludedthat a 100 renewable-electricity system might not be physically feasible let alone economically viableCoal is terrible (and more expensive as well) Natural gas is more benign than coal but still produces CO2Oil produces CO2 and importing it and protecting access to overseas sources is expensive in both blood andnational treasure Solar is much more expensive than IFR and wouldnrsquot destroy waste That leaves IFR asthe only alternative that is both sufficient and economically viable

There are no serious plans for electric airplanes ships or heavy construction or farm equipment so someliquid hydrocarbon fuels will be needed for the foreseeable future Hydrogen is at present a nonstarterbecause of the storage problem Fortunately we know how to make hydrocarbon fuels from energy + water+ CO2b Using such fuels or hydrogen if the storage problem is solved (or maybe boron [3]) it is possibletherefore to convert the entire US energy economy to electricity provided mostly by IFR with hydrowind solar geothermal or biofuels where appropriate

The current US economy could be powered by about 17 TWe Each 1 GWe reactor needs 8ndash10 tonnesof startup fissile material which would at first largely be actinides from used LWR fuel and plutoniumand enriched uranium from decommissioned weapons The current US inventory of fissionable actinides is

aGEHitachi estimates $21-24 trillion ndash 11-13 of $188 trillionbThe Fischer-Tropsch process

Page 12 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

about 900 tonnes plus about 225 tonnes of weapons-grade 235Ua or enough to start up only about 110-140GWe of capacity using IFR With breeding that IFR fleet could have a sustained growth rate of 5 per yearor maybe more After startup the deployment rate would gradually accelerate from 5ndash7 per year helpedalong by actinides from still-operating LWRs and reach the desired 17 TWe goal within about 40ndash50 yearsor sooner to the extent renewable sources are appropriate or if uranium enrichment is continued

A single complete and permanent solution to all energy pollution nuclear waste and CO2 emission problemsis within our grasp All obstacles to that solution are political abetted and perpetuated by ignoranceintentional falsehoods irrational hysteria and opportunistic demagoguery not scientific technological orengineering problems Competition for energy resources is frequently blamed for wars IFR would eliminatethat excuse

Fast breeder reactors with fuel recycling will be developed There is no credible alternative There is an 800MWe reactor in service in Russiab and a 1200 MWe reactor is under development China has contractedto buy a BN-800 reactor from Russia South Korea has announced a 400 GWe fast-neutron reactor will beavailable for sale in 2020 India is building a prototype fast-neutron reactor to exploit their vast reservesof thorium China and Japan are making progress on their own designs American experts are retiring ordying far faster then younger ones are being prepared The United States will soon be a third-world countryin energy technology

Should the United States spend $188 trillion on CO2 reduction and mitigation $1075 trillion on coal sootdamage $68ndash102 trillion on solar cells $25 trillion on wind turbines $475 trillion on grid upgrades ndash about$130minus170 trillion altogether (and none of those would destroy one gram of nuclear waste) and suffer 2million unnecessary deaths due to coal emissions or spend $24 trillion on IFR (and render all nuclear wasteharmless)

For me the answer is obvious There is no time to waste We really ought to get started

Acknowledgment

This work benefited substantially from constructive criticism by the late Dr George S Stanford

Further reading

[1] Charles E Till and Yoon Il Chang Plentiful energy (2011) ISBN 978-1466384606

[2] William H Hannum Gerald E Marsh and George S Stanford Smarter use of nuclear waste ScientificAmerican (December 2005)httpswwwscientificamericancomarticlesmarter-use-of-nuclear-waste

[3] Tom Blees Prescription For The Planet The painless remedy for our energy and environmental crises(2008) ISBN 1-4196-5582-5 Impressive technical content plus off-putting gratuitous political insultsand nutty ideas about UN control of world energy

[4] D C Wade and Y I Chang The Integral Fast Reactor Physics of operation and safety NuclearScience and Engineering 100 4 (December 1988) 507ndash524

[5] Matthew D Eisaman Keshav Parajuly Alexander Tuganov Craig Eldershaw Noring Chang andKarl A Littau CO2 extraction from seawater using bipolar membrane electrodialysis Energy amp En-vironmental Science 5 6 (May 2012)

[6] National Renewable Energy Laboratory Land-use requirements of modern wind power plants in theUnited States httpwwwnrelgovdocsfy09osti45834pdf (2009)

a141 of LWR waste (httpwwwwhatisnuclearcomarticleswastehtmlcomposition) plus military inventory of 45tonnes 239Pu and 225 tonnes 235U (httpdsp-psdpwgscgccaCollection-RLoPBdPBPbp461-ehtm)

bhttpsenwikipediaorgwikiBN-800_reactor

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 13

[7] David Baurac Passively safe reactors rely on nature to keep them coolhttpwwwneanlgovAbouthnlogos-winter02-psrshtml (Winter 2002)

[8] United Nations Scientific Committee for the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) Scientific AnnexD Health effects due to radiation from the Chernobyl accident in Sources and Effects of IonizingRadiation 2008 Report to the General Assembly Volume II ISBN-13 978-92-1-142280-1 (2011)

[9] United Nations Scientific Committee for the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) Chapter IIIScientific Findings Part A Levels and effects of radiation exposure due to the nuclear accident afterthe great east-Japan earthquake and tsunami in Sources and Effects of Ionizing Radiation 2013 Reportto the General Assembly Volume I ISBN 978-92-1-142291-7 e-ISBN 978-92-1-056501-1 (2014)

[10] D L Goldman Some Implications of Using IFR High-Transuranic Plutonium in a Prolifer-ant Nuclear Weapon Program Technical Report CONDU-94-0199 Lawrence Livermore NationalLaboratory (March 1994)

[11] P E Donald E Lutz PGampE solar plants in the desert Truth about energy (2007)

[12] Nuclear Energy Agency Projected costs of generating electricityhttpwwwieaorgtextbasenppdffree2005ElecCostPDF (2005)

[13] Nuclear Energy Agency Projected costs of generating electricityhttpwwwieaorgTextbasenpsumElecCost2010SUMpdf (2010)

[14] Mark Fischetti The human cost of energy Scientific American (September 2011)

[15] Uranium Information Center (UIC) The Economics of Nuclear Power Technical report AustralianUranium Association Melbourne (March 2008)

[16] European Commission Research team of the ExternE project serieshttpwwwexterneinfoteamhtml (2007)

[17] B W Heard B W Brook T M L Wigley and C J A Bradshaw Burden of proof A comprehensivereview of the feasibility of 100 renewable-electricity systems Renewable and Sustainable EnergyReviews 76 (2017) 1122ndash1133

[18] William H Hannum The technology of the integral fast reactor and its associated fuel cycle Progressin Nuclear Energy 31 1ndash2 (1997)

[19] George S Stanford Integral fast reactors Source of safe abundant non-polluting powerhttpwwwnationalcenterorgNPA378html

[20] Gerald E Marsh and George S Stanford Bombs reprocessing and reactor grade plutonium Forumon Physics amp Society of the American Physical Society Newsletter 35 2 (April 2006)httphttpwwwthesciencecouncilcomindexphpgeorge-stanford

[21] Charles Till Plentiful energy and the IFR story The Republic News and Issues Magazine (June-September 2005) httpwwwsustainablenuclearorgPADspad0509tillhtml

[22] The Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP) httpwwwgnepenergygov

[23] Vic Reis Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP) in American Nuclear Society meetingReno NV American Nuclear Society (5 June 2006)httpwwwsustainablenuclearorgPADspad0606reispdf

[24] Doug Lightfoot Wallace Manheimer Dan Meneley Duane Pendergast and George S Stanford NuclearFission Fuel Is Inexhaustible in Climate Change Technology Conference (10ndash12 May 2006)Ottawa Ontario Canada

Page 14 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

[25] George S Stanford LWR Recycle Necessity or Impediment in ldquoGlobal 2003rdquo ANS WinterMeeting New Orleans American Nuclear Society (16ndash20 November 2003)httpwwwnationalcenterorgLWRStanfordpdf

[26] Senators Richard Lugar and Even Bayh A nuclear fuel bank advocated Chicago Tribune (22 October2006)

[27] Gerald E Marsh and George S Stanford Yucca Mountain The Right DecisionhttpwwwnationalcenterorgNPA415html (June 2002)

[28] Steve Kirsch httpskirschcompoliticsglobalwarmingifrhtm Summary blog

[29] Janne Wallenius Ateranvandning av langlivat avfall och sluten branslecykel mojlig i nya reaktortyper(Reuse of long-lived waste and a closed fuel cycle possible in new reactor types) Nucleus (April 2007)15ndash19

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 15

Appendix ndash Fission product yields from light-water reactors

See httpenwikipediaorgwikiFission_product_yield Sorted by half life

Number Isotope decay path Mass per

fractiondagger and half life GWe-year Comment

28336 131I802dminusrarr 131Xe 3150 kg Reduced by 195times10minus14 per year ndash 06 ng after one year

554478 Various lt 1y 5411 kglowast Decay to stable products

03912 106Ru3736dminusrarr 106Rh 3519 kg

asymp 035 134Cs2065yminusrarr 134Ba 3980 kg Created in the reactor from 133Cs by neutron capture

22713 147Pm262yminusrarr 147Sm 2833 kg

00297 125Sb276yminusrarr 125Te 315 g

lt00330 155Eu476yminusrarr 155Gd 434 g Mostly destroyed by neutron capture in the reactor

02717 85Kr1078yminusrarr 85Rb 1960 kg Currently released to the atmosphere

lt00003 113mCd141yminusrarr 113mIn 288 g Mostly destroyed by neutron capture in the reactor

57518 90Sr289yminusrarr 90Y 4393 kg Principal medium-term radiation and heat source319hminusrarr 90Zr

60899 137Cs3008yminusrarr 137Ba 7080 kg Principal medium-term radiation and heat source

lt04203 151Sm90yminusrarr 151Eu 5385 kg Mostly destroyed by neutron capture in the reactor

1e18yminusrarr 147Pm 151Eu is essentially stable262yminusrarr 147Sm1e11yminusrarr 143Nd

60507 99Tc211kyminusrarr 99Ru 5083 kg Dominant radiation source among fission products in the

range of 104 rarr 106 years candidate for transmutation

to 100Tc1546sminusrarr 100Ru

00236 126Sn230kyminusrarr 126Sb 252 g1235dminusrarr 126Te

00508 79Se295kyminusrarr 79Br 341 g

62856 93Zr153myminusrarr 93Nb 4960 kg

lt63333 135Cs23myminusrarr 135Ba 7255 kg

01629 107Pd65myminusrarr 107Ag 1479 kg

06576 129I157myminusrarr 129Xe 7198 kg Candidate for transmutation to 130I

1236hminusrarr 130Xe

asymp 644 133Cs stable 7268 kg A few percent converted by neutron capture to 134Cs

lt10888 149Sm stable 1377 kg

lt00065 157Gd stable 8659 gdaggerThe number fraction is the fraction of the atoms of fission products that are the specified isotope notthe mass fraction The mass is computed by multiplying the number fraction by the atomic mass andnormalizing the total to one tonne per GWe-yearlowastAssumes average mass number of 115

Thermal neutron transmutation of 90Sr 137Cs 126Sn 79Se 93Zr 135Cs and 107Pd is not practical due tolow neutron absorption cross section at the neutron temperature in LWRs

Page 16 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

The amount of an isotope at a particular time can be calculated by solving the differential equation

dN(t)

dt= k minus ln 2

τN(t)

where N(t) is the amount at time t in years k is the production rate per year and τ is the half-life in yearsThe solution (assuming N(0) = 0) is

N(t) =τk

ln 2

(1minus 2minustτ

)

From this when t gtgt τ the amount of each radioactive fission product is exponentially asymptotic toa constant approximately τk ln 2 decay compensates for production The amount of these materials isproportional to the power capacity not the total amount of energy produced If stable decay products arecontinuously removed the size of the repository is roughly constant

The following table shows asymptotic fractions and asymptotic masses per GWe (not GWe-year) of shortand medium half-life fission products The fraction is measured in terms of the annual number of fissionproduct atoms which is twice the number of actinide atoms consumed

Asymptotic number fraction and mass per GWe

Isotope Fraction Mass kg Isotope Fraction Mass kg

137Cs3008yminusrarr 137Ba 2643 3072lowast 90Sr

289yminusrarr 90Y2671dminusrarr 90Zr 2398 1831

Various τ lt 1y 7999 lt7806dagger 147Pm262yminusrarr 147Sm 85852 1071

85Kr1078yminusrarr 85Rb 4226 3048Dagger 134Cs

2065yminusrarr 134Ba 1043 1185lowast

106Ru3736dminusrarr 106Rh 05773 5192 155Eu

476yminusrarr 155Gd 02266 2981125Sb

276yminusrarr 125Te 01183 1254 131I802dminusrarr 131Xe 00898 0998

lowastAssumes isotope separation of 133Cs 134Cs 135Cs and 137Cs Total caesium

accumulates at 220 kgGWe-yrdaggerThe unclassified components are assumed to have an average mass number of

115 and to have a one year half life Since they are a mixture of products with

half lives under one year the true asymptotic fraction and mass are lessDagger 85Kr is currently vented to the atmosphere

The total mass of these products exponentially approaches an asymptote of less than 5844 kg per GWeor 9934 tonnes for a 17 TWe economy If their decay products are continuously removed storage isnot a problem If not reprocessed they are diluted by their decay products and therefore their specificactivity declines sufficiently that they are not radioactively dangerous after 200ndash300 years but the volumeis proportional to kt not k In 200 years of a 17 TWe economy the amount is less than 250000 tonnes lessthan 130000 cubic yards or less than 44 feet deep on a football field Separating the streams according tohalf life reduces the 200-year stream by 85

For long-lived isotopes ie t ltlt τ on a human time scale decay does not compensate for productionApproximating 2minustτ = exp(minust ln 2τ) asymp 1minus t ln 2τ the solution is N(t) asymp kt as expected The amount ofthese fission products is in proportion to the total amount of energy produced not the power capacity

Long-lived isotopes accumulate at the rate of about 182 kg per GWe-year or about 309 tonnes per year fora 17 TWe economy 99Tc and 129I can be destroyed by transmutation but the others amounting to about124 kg per GWe-year are impractical to destroy by transmutation If other isotopes of caesium (about 147kg per GWe-year) are not separated from 135Cs the total long-term disposal stream increases to 271 kg perGWe-year (but its specific activity decreases) If stored for about 30 years before disposal about 35 kg perGWe-year of 137Cs will decay leaving about 235 kg per GWe-year or about 400 tonnes per year for a 17TWe economy if the resulting stable 137Ba were removed Surely disposal of 400 tonnes per year of theseisotopes would not be a problem

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 17

Value of one tonne of used LWR fuelseparated and reduced to metal

Value Radioactivity

Value $tonne (MevBq-s) Half life Heat

Substance Mass (gr) $gr of waste α β γ (years) Wgr238U 944100 0143 135006 42 0496 447times109

236U 3971 0143 568 45 0494 234times107

235U 7974 0143 1140 44 0657 704234U 225 0143 32 48 00532 245times105

237Np 503 0143 72 47 00294 214times106

242Pu 454 0143 65 48 00449 376times105

241Pu 111 0143 16 49 01485 1435240Pu 2302 0143 329 52 05424 656times103

239Pu 5025 0143 719 52 00516 241times104

238Pu 95 0143 14 55 00435 8774 156241Am 1084 0143 155 55 00595 432243Am 85 0143 12 53 00747 737244Cm 4 0143 1 58 00428 1811 244

Actinides 965933 0143 13812996Zr 798 305 2434 Stable94Zr 741 305 2260 Stable93Zr 718 305 2190 0010 00305 161times106

92Zr 639 305 1948 Stable91Zr 590 305 1799 Stable90Zr 391 305 1192 Stable

Fuel cladding 3877 305 1182299Tc for alloys 771 1000 7710 00846 weak 2111times105

90Sr 391 200 782 01958 29 09388Sr 350 200 700 Stable137Cs 377 200 754 0187 0479 3017 042135Cs 300 200 600 00757 0662 23times106

133Cs 1125 200 2250 Stable

Heat sources 2543 200 5086

Br 22 100 22 Stable

Mo 3345 0257 860 Stable

Ru 2177 4578 99663 Stable

Ag 76 200 152 Stable

Cd 108 200 216 Stable

Ba 2311 0560 1295 Stable

Tb 26 3000 78 Stable

Dy 14 500 7 Stable

Rh 467 50000 233500 Stable87Rb 365 1178 4300 00817 481times1010

123Te 485 139 675 gt 92times 1016

138La 1215 180 2187 00329 144 102times1011

144Nd 3488 220 7673 190 229times1015

115In 26 1000 26 01532 441times1014

(cont)

Page 18 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

Value of one tonne of used LWR fuelseparated and reduced to metal (cont)

Value Radioactivity

Value $tonne (MevBq-s) Half life Heat

Substance Mass (gr) $gr of waste α β γ (years) Wgr142Ce 2355 028 662 15 gt 50times 1016

152Gd 142 548 778 215 14times1015

147Sm 200 200 400 225 106times1011

148Sm 167 200 334 19323 70times1015

149Sm 24 200 5 Stable151Sm 88 200 17 00196 00216 90152Sm + 154Sm 419 200 838 Stable107Pd 1371 8294 113710 00093 01476 65times106

90Y 456 1000 4560 09336 weak 64 hr152Eu 035 6000 21 00831 0122 134154Eu 1095 6000 6570 0221 0123 8601155Eu 016 6000 9 0047 0087 4753

Other solid 19297 4785583H 00034 294117 1000 00156 1254He 289 173 5 Stable85Kr 308 200 616 0687 0514 1072

Xe 5332 170 9050 Stable

Gases 5643 10671

Total fission 32131 1600 513937

products

Not counted 1936

Total 1000000 065 652066

httpbrcgove-mailsAugust10Commercial Value of 1 Metric ton of used fuelpdf with radioac-tivity data from httpwwwnndcbnlgovchart

Actinides can be recycled as fuel

Zirconium from fuel pin alloys and cladding and fission products can be recycled into new fuel pin claddingand alloys

Some radioactive elements produce sufficient heat to be usable as energy sources for example in radioisotopethermal generators for space applications These would not be isotopically separated 90Sr is 53 of thetotal strontium in fission products so heat production for all strontium is 049 Wgr 137Cs is 21 of thetotal caesium in fission products so heat production for all caesium is 0088 Wgr

Technetium is valuable for alloying with rhenium and has medical applications

Gases would be separated first then actinides then highly radioactive products This would reduce the costof separating and reducing the stable and less radioactive products

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 19

Appendix ndash Fuel and waste cycles

Actinides

IFRReprocessing

PrimaryProcessing

Disposaland sale

NonradioactiveLong half lifemostly 135Cs and 93Zr30 kg per GWe-yr665 kg per GWe-yearwith all cesium

ContinuousReprocessing

584 tonnes per GWe

Medium andshort half life

1 Tonneper GWe-year

99Tc 13 kg129I 177 kg

per GWe-yr

Usedfuel

Usedfuel

Sale

Nonradioactive

20 tonnes per GWe-yr

Enrichment

Sale

Disposaland sale

Enrichment LWR andLWR reprocessing

eventually phased out

LWRLWR

Reprocessing

Depleted uraniumstorage

Plutonium

8-10 tonnesper GWestartup

IFR

Enriched uranium

Fis

sion

pro

duct

s1

Ton

ne p

er G

We-

yr

MinedUranium

Acceleratortransmutation

Unused fuel and fissionproducts for transmutation

1 tonneper GWe-yr

Page 20 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

Appendix ndash Partitioning and Transmutation

Medium- and long-lived fission products could in principle be destroyed by transmuting them to isotopesthat are stable or have short half lives which decay to stable isotopes

The following tablea shows that 99Tc 129I 93Zr 107Pd and 135Cs can be transmuted much faster thantheir natural decay (ie T Jtrans ltlt T J12) The radiotoxicity of 107Pd and 135Cs is so small it is not worth

the bother to transmute them 93Zr can be recycled into fuel pin cladding or fuel alloying If 99Tc and129I were destroyed there could be very few remaining objections to nuclear power For 90Sr and 137CsT Jtrans gtgt T J12 so transmuting them is not interesting They are biologically active but can simply be

stored for about six half lives (180 years) after which the remaining amounts (069 and 11 kgGWe-yr) canbe discarded or sold If they are initially deposited in ldquodeep geologicalrdquo storage the containment durationrequirement for the repositories is significantly shorter by a factor of 1500 than for used LWR fuel For 79Seand 126Sn T Jtrans ltlt T J12 but T Jtrans is not sufficiently small to be interesting Although the radiotoxicity

per gram of 126Sn and 79Se is large they are produced in such small amounts that their total radiotoxicityper GWe-yr is comparable to that of the others

Isotope J decay Radiotoxicity σJ(nγ) (barns) T Jtrans (years) Mass per Transmuted

mode and T J12 Svg SvGWe-yr Thermal Fast Thermal Fast GWe-yr decay mode

90Sr289yminusrarr 90Y 1411k 1664M 014 001 1600 2200 1179 kg 91Sr

963hminusrarr 91Y137Cs

3008yminusrarr 137Ba 4187k 1152M 002 001 11000 2200 2752 kg 138Cs3341mminusrarr 138Ba

99Tc211kyminusrarr 99Ru 04 8708 43 02 51 110 2177 kg 100Tc

1546sminusrarr 100Ru126Sn

230kyminusrarr 126Sb 4936 4019 005 0005 4400 4400 0814 kg 127Sn21hminusrarr 127Sb

79Se295kyminusrarr 79Br 7478 1271 01 003 2200 7300 0170 kg 80Se is stable

93Zr153myminusrarr 93Nb 0102 2097 028 003 790 730 2056 kg 94Zr is stable

135Cs23myminusrarr 135Ba 0085 1009 13 007 170 310 1187 kg 136Cs

1304dminusrarr 136Ba107Pd

65myminusrarr 107Ag 00007 8309 03 05 730 44 6922 kg 108Pd is stable129I

157myminusrarr 129Xe 0718 4921 43 014 51 160 8853 kg 130I1236hminusrarr 130Xe

T Jtrans is the transmutation half-time for isotope J

Amounts and radioactivity from ORIGEN 22 Radiotoxicity dose factors from ICRP publication 119

This graph from the Swedish Radiation Safety Authorityb[29]

0001

001

01

1

10

100Radiotoxic inventory [Svg]

102 103 104 105 106101

TRU

FP

Uranium in nature

t[y]

shows that most of the radiotoxicity of used nuclear fuel arisesfrom the transuranics which IFR would consume and thatthe radiotoxicity of fission products is below the radiotoxic-ity of uranium ore within 200-300 years Transmuting 99Tcand 129I would reduce the long-term tail of the fission productradiotoxicity from 300 years onward by 60 The ordinateis radiotoxicity per gram of the original fission products notthe remaining fission products at the time specified by the ab-scissa Fission products are stored together stable ones arenot continuously separated from radioactive ones

aData from httpusersictpit˜pub_offlectureslns005Number_2Slessarev_1pdfbhttpwwwstralsakerhetsmyndighetenseGlobalPublikationerTidskriftNucleus2007Nucleus-4-2007pdf

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 21

Appendix ndash Worldwide limitations of alternative energy sources

Details in httpwwwphysicsucsdedu~tmurphyphys239shu_energypdf by Dr Frank Shu

Solar photovoltaic

Solar photovoltaic could in principle supply 15 TWe enough to power the Earthrsquos entire current energyeconomy using about 02 of the land area of the Earth below 60 latitude

Wind

Land-based wind cannot supply more than about 18 TWe or about 12 of the current energy economy

Ocean currents

The Kuroshio current which flows northward in the western Pacific past Taiwan and Japan has a powerof about 100 GW Assuming 50 efficiency of extraction allows about 50 GWe to be extracted The gulfstream flows twice as fast producing eight times as much power allowing about 400 GWe to be extractedExtracting significant power from ocean currents anywhere in the world would have profound effects onclimate

Coastal ocean waves

Assuming 50 efficiency of energy extraction ocean waves impinging on all the shorelines of the Earth couldprovide about 024 TWe or about 16 of the current energy economy

Geothermal

Geothermal sources cannot provide more than about 04 TWe or about 27 of the current energy economy

Tides

Energy extractable from tidal sources amounts to about 3 GWe worldwide or about 002 of the currentenergy economy It is only economically feasible in bays such as the Bay of Fundy which concentrate tidesto heights of as much as 5 meters Damming such bays has effects on the resonant frequency of nearby baysand estuaries profoundly altering currents and tides in nearby areas

Hydroelectric

The Earthrsquos land area is 148times 1012 m2 Average rainfall is 12 meters per year Water density is 103 kgm3

Total rainfall is thus about 18times 1017 kg Dropping 100 meters releases 18times 1017 kgtimes 98 ms2 times 100 m =

176times 1020 joule Spread out over a year 315times 107 s gives 56 TW Assuming 90 efficiency yields 5 TWeThe total available is less perhaps 35 TWe if polar regions are excluded Hydroelectric installations observeabout 30 capacity factor yielding total worldwide availability of about 1 TWe-yryr or about 67 of thecurrent energy economy

Total

Excluding solar photovoltaic and ocean currents alternative electricity sources could yield about 3443 TWeworldwide or about 23 of the current energy economy

Page 22 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

bull Used IFR fuel is just about the most difficult substance from which to make weapons ndash more difficultthan LWR waste No nuclear state makes weapons from used civilian LWR fuel

Electric power production

In 2006 the US produced 787219 gigawatt hours (GWh)a or roughly 90 gigawatt-electric years (GWe-years) of electric energy (roughly 20 of total energy demand) from light-water nuclear reactors using about2000 tons (1818 metric tons or tonnes) of nuclear fuel (mostly enriched uranium) yielding 433000 watthours per gram (Whgm) or 005 GWe-years per tonne

Roughly 1990511 GWh or 227 GWe-years (about 50 of total energy demand) were produced from1053783000 tons of coal yielding 208 Whgm or 237times 10minus7 GWe-years per tonne

Approximately 64000 GWh (an irrelevant 164 of total electricity demand) were produced from 110634000barrels of petroleum (1 2 4 5 6 C converted coke waste oil) yielding 393 Whgm or 448times10minus7

GWe-years per tonne

About 816441 GWh or 93 GWe-years (21 of total energy demand) were produced from 6461615 millionstandard cubic feet of natural gas yielding 487 Whgm or 555times 10minus7 GWe-years per tonne

To produce the same amount of electricity as 1 gram (0001 kg) of LWR fuel which is used with less than5 efficiency requires 208 kg of coal 110 kg of petroleum or 89 kg of natural gas

About 54 GWe-years (lt 12 of demand) were produced from renewable sources primarily hydro

Total US electric energy production was about 450 GWe-years so average electric power demand was about450 GW Peak demand is about twice as much

Total power demand

Total yearly-averaged US power demand (electric and non-electric) is 375 terawatts (TW) Using the ruleof thumb that it takes 3 GW thermal (GWth) to generate 1 GWe current 450 GWe demand is equivalentto 1350 GWth Thus the non-electric demand is 3 750minus 1 350 = 2 400 GWth

Roughly 19 of non-electric demand or 450 GWth arises from the residential and commercial sectorsb

Much of this demand is for space and water heating which could be satisfied directly by electricity Heatpumps would be between two and eight times more efficient than electrical resistance heating or using heatfrom fossil fuels directlyc Using Mitsubishirsquos rating of 46 for its EcoDanBRE model those sectors wouldthus need about 45046 asymp 100 GWe additional electric power if converted completely to electricity

Roughly one third of non-electric demand or 800 GWth arises from the industrial sector Some of that canonly be used in the form of higher-temperature heat than heat pumps can produce (for example in cementmanufacture) Guessing that 500 GWth must remain as heat supplied by resistance or arc at about 100efficiency and the remaining 300 GWth could be replaced by 100 GWe the industrial sector would needabout 500 + 3003 = 600 GWe additional electric power

Many industries need heat at temperatures that can be provided directly from reactors (up to about 1000For 550C) without intermediate conversion to electricity Examples include papermaking food processingplastic processing To the extent these facilities can be co-located with reactors three times higherefficiency can be gained thereby reducing required capacity below 800 GWth

Roughly 48 of non-electric demand or 1150 GWth arises from the transportation sector About 85 ofenergy use in the transportation sector or about 975 GWth is for road rail or pipeline transportd Railand pipeline transport could be immediately converted to electric supply and work is in progress to convert

ahttpwwweiadoegovcneafelectricityepaepateshtmlbhttpwwweiadoegovenergyexplainedindexcfmpage=us_energy_homechttpwwwfuelcellsbhamacukdocumentsreview_of_domestic_heat_pump_coppdfdhttpwwwifpcomcontentdownload575161274819fileIFP-Panorama052009-ConsommationVApdf

Page 2 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

road transport to electric supply The remaining 15 is mostly for airplanes ships and heavy constructionand farm equipment

The efficiency of an electric vehicle starting from the power plant is about 73 (95 transmission efficien-cy times 88 battery charge efficiency times 88 battery discharge efficiency) while the efficiency of an internal-combustion engine is about 15a (but in a series hybrid automobile it approaches 30) Thus the efficiency ofroad transport would be increased by a factor of 49 (7315) by conversion to electricity while efficiencyof rail and pipeline transport would be increased by a factor of 63 (9515) because they donrsquot needbatteries Thus the 975 GWth demand for road rail and pipeline transport would be replaced by anincreased electric power demand of about 97549 asymp 200 GWe This leaves about 175 GWth supplied byliquid hydrocarbon fuels primarily for airplanes ships and heavy construction and farm equipment Liquidhydrocarbon fuels could ultimately be manufactured from energy + CO2 + water using the Fischer-Tropschprocess An especially interesting possibility is to extract carbonates from seawater using the PARC process[5] direct reactor heat at 530 to produce hydrogen using the Cu-Cl process and the Fischer-Tropsch processto produce alkanes

Taking 450 GWe current demand together with 900 GWe new demands for electric power shows that wewould have to expand our electric generating capacity by a factor of about 1350450 = 3 to cover all but 175GWth of our power needs Guessing 50 efficiency of converting electricity to liquid hydrocarbon fuelsb

about 350 GWe would be required to displace the remaining 175 GWth transportation demand for liquidhydrocarbon fuels for a total electric demand of 1700 GWe or about 375 times current capacity

CO2

About 2344 billion tonnes of CO2 were produced in 2006 by US fossil-fueled power plants (1938 from coal0319 from natural gas) Total US emissions were 5894 billion tonnes (1186 from residential 1035 fromcommercial 1658 from industrial 2014 from transportation)c

No CO2 is produced from operation of nuclear reactors although some CO2 is produced by the miningmilling refining fabrication and transportation of uranium fuel and in the construction (and eventualdestruction) of a power plant (mostly from cement manufacture)

Nuclear is a lower carbon emitting option than wind solar or hydroelectric primarily because of the hugeamounts of concrete steel aluminum and plastic needed for those technologiesd

The net of nuclear energy produced less fossil fuel energy consumed is so large that life cycle emissions ofCO2 for the current generation of LWRs are only 3-6 grams of carbon per kilowatt hour (gCkWh) As willbe shown below we have enough uranium already mined and refined to fuel IFR replacements for our LWRfleet for 10000 years to fuel IFR replacements for our entire electric generating capacity for 2000 years orto fuel IFR replacements for our entire energy economy for 530 years Averaged over this time scale withmined uranium used to 100 efficiency instead of 06 life cycle CO2 emissions for nuclear power plantsare only 001-002 gCkWh or about 300000 tonnes per year a reduction of a factor of 50000 from allsources in 2006 Once uranium mining milling and refining start again they would presumably be poweredby electricity from IFR so the CO2 emission rate would be even less

For wind turbines itrsquos 3ndash10 gCkWh For natural gas itrsquos 105ndash163 gCkWh For coal itrsquos 228ndash262 gCkWhde

ahttpwwwelectroautocominfopollmythshtmlbOther fuels such as boron [3] might have higher total system efficiencychttpwwweiadoegovoiaf1605ggrptcarbonhtmldldquoThe Energy Challengerdquo page 117 published by DTI (now BERR httphttpwwwberrgovukfilesfile31890pdf)

in 2007ehttpwwweiagovcneafelectricitypageco2_reportco2emisspdf

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 3

Wind

According to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory [6] the average total land use power density ofwind projects is 3 MWkm2 Utilities observe on average a 21 capacity factor for wind installations [3]giving an effective average wind project power density of 06 MWkm2 Capacity factors will surely decreasebecause high-potential sites are used first

To supply 17 TWe would require 33 of the nationrsquos land area (Alaska excluded) for wind farm projects

W Timothy Liu recognized world wide as an expert on wind says however that wind can never supplymore than 15 of the worldrsquos current total energy needs Professor Frank Shu of the University of Californiaat San Diego estimates worldwide potential is 18 TWea

Solar photovoltaic

The global mean average peak power output of solar panels as of 2014 is about 175 watts per square meter(Wm2) ndash more at the equator less at the poles more in sunny locales less in cloudy ones Assuming a15 capacity factor [3] leaves an effective power flux of 2625 Wm2 or 02625 GWe-yrkm2 per year So togenerate all 4064702 gigawatt hours produced in the US in 2007 would require asymp 17 700 square kilometersof cells To provide 1700 GWe-yr per year would require over 64800 square kilometers of cells plus perhaps10 more for spaces between the racks of collectors No problem Just put solar panels on the roofs ofhomes At 1000 ft2 (90 m2) per home thatrsquos only 721 million homes

By way of comparison the San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station occupied 84 acres (034 km2) andproduced 23 GWe-yr per year or 677 GWe-yrkm2 per year To produce 1700 GWe-yr per year wouldrequire 251 km2

Human activity already uses 25 of the biological output of the land area of the earth exclusive of Antarcticaand Greenland In parts of central and eastern Europe and India it is as high as 60 Converting moreland to solar power and biofuels would effectively increase this fraction thereby depriving the non-humanbiosphere the use of this land

Current photovoltaic cells have to produce energy for over four years to pay back the energy invested inproducing and deploying them As of 2013 photovoltaic and solar thermal sources contribute about 25 ofour total electric power Therefore we would need exponential increase of 25 per year for 17 years to bringthis to 100 of our electric power requirements or 23 years to provide all of our power requirements bywhich time photovoltaic cells would not have added one watt hour to our energy supply The current annualgrowth rate is 57 [3] at which rate we could build enough capacity to supply all of our power needs in 92years but even more time would be needed to repay the energy investment

Since the sun only shines during the day energy would have to be stored for use at night or transmittedfrom halfway around the world At some latitudes it doesnrsquot shine at all during winter so long-distancedistribution would be necessary

Storage is a significant problem to which insufficient attention has been given If all the batteries everproduced were fully charged at sundown (which is impossible because most have been recycled) they wouldnot supply current demand for one night An all-electric automobile fleet would use about 20 of energyoutput An electric automobile can operate for about five hours at full power If the entire electric automobilefleet were fully charged and connected to the grid at sundown it could supply 20 of demand for five hoursThen nobody could drive to work because the batteries would be discharged

Biofuels

The US currently gets 1 of road transportation fuels or about 9 GWth from biofuels using 10 ofcurrently-harvested cropland or about 13 of the nationrsquos land area

ahttpwwwphysicsucsdedu~tmurphyphys239shu_energypdf

Page 4 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

To supply all road rail pipeline ship airplane and heavy equipment fuels would require 1270 of currently-harvested cropland area or 130 of the nationrsquos total land area

Even providing only all ship airplane and heavy equipment fuels from biofuels would require 190 ofcurrently-harvested cropland area or about 18 of the nationrsquos total land area (Alaska included) Whatwould we eat

Currently-harvested cropland area is about 75 of total farmland area It is not possible to harvest 100of farmland Some must remain fallow each year to avoid depletion and some is pasture

Irrational hysteria about nuclear power regretted

Patrick Moore a cofounder of Greenpeace realizes that his view in the 1970rsquos that nuclear power and nuclearweapons are the same thing was naıve He now advocates nuclear power as ldquothe energy source that cansave our planet from another possible disaster catastrophic climate change rdquo ldquoNuclear energy is the onlylarge-scale cost-effective energy source that can reduce these emissions [of CO2] while continuing to satisfya growing demand for power rdquo For his honesty Greenpeace has kicked him outa on page 1

Hersquos not alone James Lovelock father of the Gaia theory Stewart Brand founder of the Whole EarthCatalog the late Bishop Hugh Montefiore founder and director of Friends of the Eartha James Hansenthe outspoken NASA climate scientist Mark Lynas an outspoken critic of nuclear power before learning ofIFR and many other former critics of nuclear power are now nuclear power advocates

Safety of nuclear power in OECD countries

According to the Paul Scherrer Institute Nuclear Energy and Safety Research Divisionbc nobody has diedin any OECD or EU-27 country as a result of the operation of a civilian nuclear electric power generator

Impressive as is the current perfect safety record IFR is a more modern design that incorporates additionalsafety features In particular above the designed operating temperature it has a negative temperaturecoefficient meaning that the hotter the reaction gets the slower it goes ultimately settling down at anequilibrium temperature far below the ldquomeltdownrdquo temperature This depends upon immutable laws ofphysics not upon skill of operators computers pumps or indeed on any moving parts at all other thanthermal expansion of the reactor core

Seven years after the Three Mile Island ac-

800

1000

1200

1400

-100 0 100 200 300 400 500

Time after loss of power (seconds)

Tem

per

atu

re (

oF

)

Maximum fuel claddingtemperature

Figure 1 Core temperature after loss of cooling

cident the prototype of IFR called EBR-IIwas compromised in the same way that theThree Mile Island reactor was compromised(loss of coolant flow) It shut down with-out any damage to the reactor harm to theoperators or release of radioactive materi-als A few hours earlier it had been com-promised in the other known way (loss ofheat sink) Again it shut down gracefully[3] One month later the Chernobyl reactorwas compromised in the second way Ac-cording to Pete Planchon [7] who ran thetests for an invited international audienceldquoBack in 1986 we actually gave a small [20MWe] prototype advanced fast reactor a couple of chances to melt down It politely refused both timesrdquo

aFriends of the Earth forced Bishop Montefiore to resign after he published a pro-nuclear article in a church magazinebhttpswwwpsichneschttpswwwpsichtaRiskENSECURE_Deliverable_D5_7_2_Severe_Accident_Riskspdf page 43

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 5

Three Mile Island

Notwithstanding the hysteria of Jack Lemmon Jane Fonda and Michael Douglas in the movie ldquoThe ChinaSyndromerdquo nobody that is NOBODY was injured by the Three Mile Island accident It was a brilliantsuccess story of careful designa which has since been improved by lessons learned Insurers paid out only$70 million The owners spent a further $973 million on cleanup Nobody has died of a radiation-relatedaccident in the history of the US civilian nuclear electric power reactor programf or civilian nuclear electricpower reactor programs in any OECD or EU-27 country

Chernobyl

Chernobyl was an accident waiting to happen The reactor had an inadequate containment structure it wasan inherently unsafe designb (nobody plans to build another 3 GWth reactor out of charcoal and surround itwith a tin-foil containment shed) and the operators literally (but unintentionally) blew it up by bypassingsafety interlocks and already-inadequate shutdown mechanisms ironically in a rush to get a safety checkdone The 173-page report of the United Nations Scientific Committee for the Effects of Atomic Radiation(UNSCEAR)cd[8] concludes that

bull 134 plant workers and emergency workers suffered Acute Radiation Syndrome (ARS) from high dosesof radiation Two workers were killed by falling debris One died from coronary thrombosis

bull In the first few months after the accident 28 ARS victims died

bull Although another 19 ARS sufferers had died by 2006 those deaths had different causes not usuallyassociated with radiation exposure

bull Skin injuries and cataracts were among the most common consequences in ARS survivors

bull Although several hundred thousand people as well as the emergency workers were involved in recoveryoperations there is no consistent evidence of health effects that can be attributed to radiation exposureapart from indications of increased incidence of leukemia and of cataracts among those who receivedhigher doses

bull 6000 cases of thyroid cancer were reported between 1991 and 2005 in affected areas It is not possibleto state scientifically that radiation caused a particular cancer in a particular individual By 2005only fifteen of those cases had been fatal

bull Radiation doses to the general public in the three most affected countries (Ukraine Belarus Russia)were relatively low and most residents ldquoneed not live in fear of serious health consequencesrdquo In themost affected areas the average additional dose over the period 1986-2005 is approximately equivalentto that of one computed tomography scan

bull There is no ongoing increased risk of solid tumors or blood cancers

The World Nuclear Association attributes 30 deaths to the accidente ldquoTragic as those deaths were theypale in comparison to the more than 5000 coal-mining deaths worldwide every yearrdquo says Mooref

ahttpwwwworld-nuclearorginfoinf36htmlbThe Soviet RBMK reactor design is based upon the design of a military reactor which was in turn based upon de-

sign documents for the US Hanford reactors stolen from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory before the Hanford reactorswere built optimized for production of plutonium for weapons purposes scaled up for civilian nuclear power production(httpwwwworld-nuclearorginfoinf31html)

chttpwwwunscearorgunscearenchernobylhtmldhttpwwwunisunviennaorgunisenpressrels2011unisinf398htmlehttpwwwworld-nuclearorginfoSafety-and-SecuritySafety-of-PlantsChernobyl-Accident ndash see Appendix 1

Sequence of eventsfhttpwwwwashingtonpostcomwp-dyncontentarticle20060414AR2006041401209html

Page 6 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

More to the point Chernobyl was a steam explosion followed by a hydrogen explosiona followed by agraphite fire Although a test reactor at Idaho National Laboratory was intentionally destroyed by promptcriticalityb it is impossible for a municipal nuclear reactor licensed in an OECD or EU-27 country to generatea nuclear explosion IFR being liquid-metal cooled has no water in the core and is not graphite moderatedA steam explosion a hydrogen explosion or a graphite fire is impossible in the core of an IFR

Fukushima

Despite widespread hysteria a reportc from the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of AtomicRadiation (UNSCEAR) presented to the UN General Assembly in October 2013 [9] shows that nobody waskilled injured or made ill by the destruction of the reactors at Fukushima by the earthquake and tsunamiand nobody will be

From Page 9 section 2 ldquoDose Assessmentrdquo para 29 ldquoThe Japanese people receive an effective dose of radiationfrom naturally occurring sources of on average about 21 millisieverts (mSv) annually and a total of about170 mSv over their lifetimesrdquo

From page 11 section 3 ldquoHealth Implicationsrdquo para 38 ldquoNo radiation-related deaths or acute diseases have beenobserved among the workers and general public exposed to radiation from the accidentrdquo

para 40 ldquoFor adults in Fukushima Prefecture the Committee estimates [the increase in] average lifetime effectivedoses to be of the order of 10 mSv or less a discernible increase in cancer incidence in this populationthat could be attributed to radiation exposure from the accident is not expectedrdquo

For comparison the dose from an abdominal and pelvic CT scan repeated with and without contrast wouldbe about 30 mSv or about ten yearsrsquo worth of average normal background radiation This increases lifetimecancer risk from 1 in 5 to 1005 in 5 Yearly dose on the Tibetan plateau is 13-20 mSv In areas of monazitedeposits in Brazil and India doses exceed 36 mSvyear

Nuclear power reactor waste

Foremost among the benefits of IFR beyond enhanced inherent safety the amount of waste is a factor of 20less than the amount produced by LWRs Most IFR waste is dangerously radioactive for five years and theremainder for a few hundred years instead of a few hundred thousand years [1]

The 2000 tons of used fuel removed from US LWRs per year are currently considered waste but are actuallya valuable resource because only 5 of their energy content has been extracted

Used fuel has a density of about 11 gramscm3 or about 8 tonsyd3 As of 2006 total US commercial fueldischarges amounted to about 59160 tonnesd or about 7400 cubic yards of accumulated ldquowasterdquo This isalready enough for 8ndash10 Yucca Mountains If piled on a 3000 square yard football field it would be 74feet deep (but it would melt) The 100000000 tons of eternally-toxic solid wastee from operation of UScoal-fired power plants in 2006 alone would be about 74000 feet or about 14 miles deepf amounting to 740miles in fifty years

aSteam reacted with zirconium fuel pin cladding to produce hydrogenbNuclear fission produces two populations of neutrons those emitted within about ten nanoseconds (prompt neutrons) and

those emitted up to several seconds later (delayed neutrons) If critical neutron flux arises from prompt neutrons it is notpossible to control the reaction

chttpwwwunscearorgdocsGAreportsA-68-46_e_V1385727pdfdhttpwwweiadoegovcneafnuclearspent_fuelussnfdatahtml reports LWR waste of 42750 tonnes through 2002

httpwwweiadoegovemeuaertxtstb0902xls reports 631 GWe-yr nuclear production 2003ndash2009 and 16 TWe-yr from1957ndash2002 Assuming the same 26718 tonnesTWe-yr 1957ndash2002 rate for 2003ndash2009 gives 16860 additional tonnes

eAccording to httpwwwornlgovinfoornlreviewrev26-34textcolmainhtml there is 163 times more energy inthe waste from coal-fired power plants than in the coal that was burned 47 tonnes of uranium and 116 tonnes of thorium perGWe-yr about 0036 of a coal-fired power plantrsquos solid waste Power plants account for only 74 of coal combustion

fAccording to httpwwwtfhrcgovhnr20recyclewastecbabs1htm density is 10125ndash135 tonsyd3

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 7

In addition to the 5-used-fuel ldquowasterdquo there are about 900000 tons of depleted-uranium ldquowasterdquo left overfrom the enrichment process containing more than 90 of the energy in the uranium that was mined

The rate at which waste generates heat is a more important factor than its volume With transuranicspresent ndash as in what we currently call ldquowasterdquo ndash the long-term capacity of a repository is determined by theheat those transuranics will generate millennia hence With them removed the primary determining factorbecomes heat generated by 137Cs and 90Sr With transuranics removed but 137Cs and 90Sr remaining thecapacity of a repository is increased by a factor of about five compared to the current technology With only137Cs and 90Sr remaining the capacity is enormously increased [1]

A reactor (IFR or otherwise) produces about 1 tonne of fission products per GWe-year The current USLWR fleet produces about 90 GWe-year per year thereby generating about 90 tonnes of fission productsper year about 5 of the total ldquowasterdquo or about 300 milligrams per American Radioactive 137Cs and90Sr amount to about 39 kg per GWe-year Not all isotopes of caesium and strontium are radioactive andisotopic separation is costly so it makes more sense to consider total caesium and strontium fission productswhich amount to 92 kgGWe-year about 83 Tonnesyr or about 24 milligrams per American per year Ifall those fission products within the 59160 tonnes of ldquowasterdquo accumulated from 1957 until 2006 were spreadon a football field the pile would be about 044 inches deep A pile of all fission products including thosethat are nonradioactive or have very short half lives would be 48 inches deep (but it would melt)

If the current American supply of LWRs were replaced by IFRs the stream of ldquowasterdquo would be reduced from1818 to 90 tonnes per year and if left mixed instead of separated those 90 tonnes would be less radiotoxicthan mined uranium before 200ndash300 years instead of 300000 years as for LWR ldquowasterdquo

The nonradioactive short-lived and long-lived fission products could be separated Strontium and caesiumconstitute 9 of fission products 6 of fission products (99Tc and 129I) have very long half lives but canbe transmuted to short-lived isotopes (1546 seconds and 1236 hours) by neutron absorption within thereactor thereby effectively destroying them 93Zr another 2 of fission products can be recycled into fuelpin cladding or alloying (where it doesnrsquot matter that itrsquos radioactive and the radioactivity is low-energybeta ndash electron ndash emission anyway) The remaining 89 are less radiotoxic than mined uranium before five toten years The stream requiring long-term storage (strontium and caesium) would thereby be substantiallyreduced to about 92 kgGWe-yr The specific activity (heat generation per kilogram) of the remainderwould be reduced Other fission products (primarily 137Cs and 90Sr) could in principle be destroyed byneutron transmutation but it takes longer than their normal decay Even if they are simply stored howevertheir specific activity is so low that storage is not a significant problem At an average of $16 milliontonne(some much higher) the appreciable commercial value of many fission productsa reduces the storage problemeven further

If all current US electric power generating capacity were replaced with IFR the stream of fission productswould amount to 450 tonnes per year of which 41 tonnes require long-term custody This is less than onequarter the quantity of 5-used fuel that is generated by the LWRs that supply about 20 of our presentelectric power needs

A 17 TWe energy economy powered by IFRs would produce 1700 tonnes of fission products per year orabout 65 less than the 1818 tonnes of 5-used fuel removed from the LWRs that currently supply onlyabout 53 of our energy needs Long-lived fission products (mostly 93Zr and 135Cs) amount to about 131kg per GWe-year or 223 tonnes (730 milligrams per American) altogether per year 93Zr could be recycledinto fuel-pins so it neednrsquot be stored 93Zr and 135Cs would occupy about 121 yd3 or about 14 inch ifspread on a football field They have such low specific activity that they are not considered to be dangerousIf 133Cs (stable) 134Cs (2065y) and 137Cs (3008y) are not removed the amount is 269 yd3 per year

Fission products with half-lives less than thirty years are less radiotoxic than mined natural uranium before200ndash300 years so custody is simple for them Production and radioactive decay offset each other expo-nentially approaching an asymptote of about 584 tonnes of radioactive material per GWe (not GWe-year)If stable decay products are continuously removed a constant capacity is needed for radioactive materialstorage preferably co-located with each IFR

That is storage and disposal are not problems and therefore IFR waste is not a problem

ahttpbrcgove-mailsAugust10Commercial Value of 1 Metric ton of used fuelpdf

Page 8 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

Refer to the appendices for more details

Availability of nuclear fuel

For LWRs the concentration of 235U the fissile isotope is typically enriched from the natural 071 toabout 42 leaving behind a supply of uranium depleted in 235U that is about 57 times the amount ofldquoreactor graderdquo enriched uranium Combining this and the 4-5 fuel efficiency of LWR we extract lessthan 06 of the energy in mined uranium In a reactor some of the 238U is transmuted into 239Pu andother transuranics which are directly usable as IFR fuel In an IFR energy economy once started thosetransuranics rather than 235U provide much of the fission energy and the neutrons needed to transmute 238Uinto more transuranics That is (a) enrichment is not necessary and (b) the currently left-behind depleteduranium is valuable as future fuel

Using a rule of thumb that fissioning 09 kg of actinides yields 1 GWth-day of energy and generating 1 GWerequires 3 GWth to be expended 1 GWe-yr requires 36525 times 3 times 09 = 981 kg asymp 1 tonne of actinides tobe converted to fission products If mined uranium were used to 100 capacity instead of 06 total USpower demand of about 1700 GWe would require about 1700 tonnes of new uranium per year

IFRs could use the current US supply of LWR ldquowasterdquo a substance of which we are desperately eager tobe rid as fuel If nothing is done other than to build an IFR to replace each LWR as it reaches the endof its useful lifea about 50 tonnes of start-up fuel per IFR plus one tonne per year of make-up uraniumthereafterb would be needed That is assuming there are 900000 tonnes of LWR ldquowasterdquo on hand (usedfuel plus depleted uranium) there is enough fuel from that alone for about 10000 years without miningmilling refining or enriching any new uranium

If all current US electric generating capacity were replaced with IFRs about 450 tonnes of makeup fuelwould be needed per year that is there is enough fuel for about 2000 years If the entire energy economywere powered by IFR about 1700 tonnes per year would be needed that is there is enough fuel from currentLWR ldquowasterdquo alone for almost 530 years Is it really ldquowasterdquo

Uranium is four times more common than tin and ten times more common than silver Currently knownreserves of uranium in ore of current commercial grade contain about five million tonnes of the metalc Thatis enough for about 4300 years if used in 90 GWe capacity of US LWRs or about 4800 years if all 1700GWe US power demand were supplied by IFRs Current total worldwide energy demand is about fourtimes US energy demand so if the entire world were to be powered by IFRs at current demand there isenough uranium counting only known reserves profitably recoverable at $138kgU for about 1200 years

The picture isnrsquot so bleak however because the efficiency of use of uranium by IFRs means the fuel costper kWh would be the same as for LWRs at $1380006 asymp $23000kgU or about 0001centkWh This makesit economically feasible to use lower grade ores or more importantly to extract uranium from seawaterwhere there is estimated to be about 45 billion tonnes this is enough for more than a million years ofcurrent worldwide energy demand Even this however is a substantial under-estimate because uraniumis continuously flowing into the oceans from rivers That is uranium alone is an essentially inexhaustibleresource Thorium which could in principle serve as fertile future fuel is four times more common thanuranium so even without river inflow all current worldwide power needs could be supplied for about fivemillion years using nuclear fission Nuclear fission is an effectively inexhaustible energy resource

Weapons proliferation

The ldquoIntegralrdquo in IFR means that the entire system including fuel reprocessing is integrated in one facilityActinides go into an IFR none come out except to start a new IFR Opportunities for theft of partly-used

aWe wouldnrsquot replace LWRs prematurely because the IFR system functions symbiotically with the current fuel cyclebIFR fuel has to be asymp 20 fissile (mainly PU-239) and 80 fertile (U-238) Once an IFR has been loaded it can generate its

own fissile material from fertile material so all it would need to keep running is one tonne of unenriched uranium per GWe-yearc httpwwwworld-nuclearorginfoinf75html

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 9

fuel would be reduced because it would not be transported to a separate facility for processing

Unlike LWRs an IFR power economy once started does not need its uranium fuel to be enriched in 235UThis means that it is not necessary to have any facility to enrich uranium for other than military purposesA reactor owner does need however either ironclad international guarantees of assured fuel supply or theability to reprocess partly used fuel

The ability to reprocess fuel implies the presence of a cadre of professionals who are familiar with most of thetechniques for making weapons-grade materials The mixture of actinides taken out of IFR for reprocessingpresents more difficult radiation thermal chemical and metallurgical problems to would-be weaponeersthan those taken from LWR It is unsuitable for direct use in weapons primarily because of the presenceof 243Am 241Pu and non-fissionable 238Pu 240Pu and 242Pu but is admirably suited as IFR fuel 241Puemits 50 times more heat 5000 times more neutrons and 100 times more gamma radiation than 239PuThis could damage a weapon or cause predetonation and makes maintenance of fine mechanical tolerancesdifficult Expensive remote assembly is mandatory Separating 239Pu from nearby isotopes is more difficultthan separating 238U from 235U first because the mass difference is smaller and second because synthesizingthe gaseous compound PuF6 needed for centrifugal or gas diffusion isotope separation is difficult Eventhough the problem of extracting weapons-grade materials from LWR is easier than for IFR nobody hasdone so Every nuclear weapons program has depended upon enriched uranium or upon purpose-builtreactors optimized to produce 239Pu and these have been nation-scale projects not backyard garage-scaleprojects that a terrorist cell might successfully undertake The simple conclusion is that used LWR fuel isjust about the most difficult material from which to produce nuclear weapons [3] A Lawrence LivermoreNational Laboratory study [10] concluded that spent IFR fuel cannot be used to make a nuclear weaponwithout significant further processing

Even if the difficulties of producing weapons from used reactor fuel could be overcome IFR presents nonew problems of weapons proliferation because reprocessing and enrichment are not substantially differentfrom the standpoint of international oversight No countryrsquos desire or ability to produce nuclear weaponshas ever been affected by any other countryrsquos decision to reprocess or not to reprocess used municipalreactor fuel Every advanced industrial country could in principle produce nuclear weapons independentlyof any other countryrsquos decision to reprocess or not to reprocess used municipal reactor fuel If a countrycannot be trusted with this technology do not sell reactors or fuel reprocessing systems to them The samelong-distance transmission that would be required for solar power would serve their needs

Costs

GE estimates their version of IFR known as S-PRISMa can be built for about $15-2W or $22W after a90 capacity factor is incorporated [11] A GEHitachi consortium estimates they could produce IFR for$12-14W [3] The Diablo Canyon generating station produces electricity for 5cent per kWh The Palo Verdestation was constructed for $179W and produces electricity for 43cent per kWh

T Boone Pickens proposed to build a 4 GWe wind farm The estimated cost ballooned to $3W or $15Wafter incorporating a 21 capacity factor [3] The project was abandoned The Sacramento Municipal UtilityDistrict (SMUD) reports a 15 capacity factor for solar photovoltaic ldquoNo system with capacity factors thislow is a viable energy producing systemrdquo [11] After incorporating these capacity factors the effectiveconstruction costs increase to $4000-$8500kWe for wind and $16000-$60000kWe for solar SMUDestimates a 69-year financial payback for solar photovoltaicb Because wind and solar are diffuse sources$11-13 trillion would be needed for grid upgrades [3] adding another $750kWe to the construction costBecause they are diffuse and erratic sources additional costs for storage would be necessary

In 2017 the lowest-price solar cells cost $180 per peak watt With 15 capacity factor this is $12 peraverage watt Amortized over 25 years at 5 and deducting the four-plus year energy payback capital costalone is 117cent per kWh (181cent at 10) The GVEA 40 battery in Fairbanks Alaska is the largest utility-scale

aSuper Power Reactor Inherently Safe ModularbLifetime is only 30ndash40 years See httpwwwostigovbridgeservletspurl755637-oDWEJRwebviewable755637pdf

or httpwwwglobalspeccomLearnMoreOptics_Optical_ComponentsOptoelectronicsPhotovoltaic_Cells

Page 10 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

storage battery It weighs 1200 tonnes provides 10 MWh storage and cost $350Wh Amortized over fiveyears this is 57centkWha To have constant output the panel capacity needs to be twice the demand ndash halffor immediate use and half to charge batteries so the capital cost for cells plus storage is 291cent per kWhThis does not include mounting transportation operation maintenance land recycling or grid upgradesThe equation used to calculate amortized cost is

A(n) = rA(nminus 1)minus p

where A(0) is the initial cost per watt and A(n) is the amount remaining to be paid after n payments ofp dollars at an interest rate of 100(r minus 1) per payment period Solving this equation for A(n) settingA(n) = 0 and solving for p gives

p = A(0) rnr minus 1

rn minus 1

The cost per watt hour is pH where H is hours per payment period If the payment period is one yearand power is provided continuously H is 8766 (36525times24) Because solar panels have a 45 year energypayback period the final value needs to be multiplied by n(nminus 45) where n is years

The following table compares construction costs for eight renewable sources [3] Costs are per peak kWenot average kWe The capacity factor is not included

Cost Cost Cost CostSource $kWe Source $kWe Source $kWe Source $kWeWind (onshore) 800 Wind (offshore) 1700 Hydro 2000 Geothermal 2100Biomass 2300 Solar (thermal) 2400 Tidal 2800 Solar (PV) 5900

The following table compares operating and construction costs for six electric power technologies [3] [12][13] External grid upgrade and storage costs are not included Since 1981 nuclear power utilities havebeen paying 01centkWh into the Federal Nuclear Waste Fund so LWR decommissioning and ldquowasterdquo handlingcosts are included as internal costs

Operating Average Effective FederalCost Construction Capacity Construction Life Delivered Subsidy

Fuel centkWh Cost $kWe Factor Cost $kWedagger (yrs) centkWhDagger centkWhlowast

LWR Nuclear 49 1000-2000 gt 90 1111-2222 50 515ndash541 0210Coal 60-63 1000-1500 gt 90 1111-1667 50 625ndash668 0056Hydro 40-80 2000 asymp 33 6000 100 469ndash869 0136Gas 76-92 400-800 gt 90 444-888 30 777ndash954 0060Wind 49-100 1000-2000 asymp 21 4762-9524 20 762ndash1543 3533Solar PV 150-300 6000-9000 asymp 15 40000-60000 30 3021ndash5282 23131daggerConstruction cost capacity factorDaggerOperating cost + construction cost ( capacity factor times lifetime ) Amortization not includedlowasthttpwwweiagovanalysisrequestssubsidy tables ES4 and ES5 for 2013

Particulate emissions alone from coal-fired power plants cost $165 billion [3] and cause 30100 prematuredeaths 603000 asthma attacks and 5130000 lost work days per year in the United States alone [14]

Nuclear power has the lowest delivered costs in ten of twelve countries studied [15] (India China and Russiawere not included) The two that did not have the lowest costs were the United States and Korea Thereport did not address the significant costs in the United States of protracted litigation and continuouslyrevised regulations and slow licensing of individual reactors It would be helpful if the Nuclear RegulatoryCommission were to adopt the French system of licensing reactor designs instead of individual reactors IFRs

aProf Nate Lewis in a private seminar Where will we get our energy at Caltech Jet Propulsion Laboratory estimated40-50centkWh

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 11

would be less expensive to build and operate than current technology because they are simpler standardizeddesigns instead of complicated one-off designs [3] The system is further substantially simplified because thecoolant operates at atmospheric pressure instead of 160 atmospheres and it absorbs essentially all neutronsthat escape the core so special alloys and over-designing are not needed to compensate for containmentvessel embrittlement caused by neutron damage and there are much fewer radioactive structural neutronactivation products

When external costs are included nuclear costs are estimated [16] to be about one tenth as much as coalCO2 emissions are explicitly excluded from costs of fossil-fuel systems Nuclear utilities have been paying01centkWh into the Federal Waste Disposal Fund since 1981 for used nuclear fuel disposal and reactor decom-missioning these costs are included as internal costs for LWR The radiological cost of mining is includedbut for IFR that would be irrelevant since there is already enough uranium above ground for several cen-turies For IFR fuel would be cheaper than free for a few hundred years because it would consume the LWRldquowasterdquo of which we are desperately eager to be rid and disposal of IFR waste would be far less expensivethan disposal of 5-used LWR fuel so IFR must have much lower than one tenth the operating cost of coal

The United States has already invested $8 Billion in the Yucca Mountain repository It is estimated to cost$436 Billion to complete [3] and current waste would require about 8-10 times more capacity than YuccaMountain would have at completion IFR would make Yucca Mountain irrelevant and is even more importantnow that the Obama administration has canceled Yucca Mountain Why is the Nevada Congressionaldelegation not insisting that the IFR demonstration project be restarted

Tony Blairrsquos government commissioned a study by Sir Nicholas Stern former vice president and chiefeconomist for the World Bank He recommended committing 1 of global GDP to reduce CO2 emissions to25-70 below current levels by mid century and that increased extreme weather costs alone could reach1 of GDP [3] For the United States that amount of todayrsquos GDP would be $290 billion per year In thenext section we estimate that producing an energy economy entirely powered by IFR could be accomplishedin fewer than 65 years Spending $290 billion per year on CO2 remediation during that interval would cost$188 trillion (in todayrsquos dollars) At $22BGWe for IFR 17 TWe would cost $374 trilliona ndash 20 asmuch ndash and would essentially eliminate CO2 emissions not reduce them by 25-70

What can be done

As admirable as they are conservation biofuels wind geothermal tides waves ocean currents and hydroalone or together cannot power any economy nor can they destroy the 59160 tonnes of ldquowasterdquo from thefirst 53 years of US LWR operations and more accumulated since 2006 Wind and solar are much moreexpensive than IFR There are no good hydro sites that have been exploited A 2017 study [17] concludedthat a 100 renewable-electricity system might not be physically feasible let alone economically viableCoal is terrible (and more expensive as well) Natural gas is more benign than coal but still produces CO2Oil produces CO2 and importing it and protecting access to overseas sources is expensive in both blood andnational treasure Solar is much more expensive than IFR and wouldnrsquot destroy waste That leaves IFR asthe only alternative that is both sufficient and economically viable

There are no serious plans for electric airplanes ships or heavy construction or farm equipment so someliquid hydrocarbon fuels will be needed for the foreseeable future Hydrogen is at present a nonstarterbecause of the storage problem Fortunately we know how to make hydrocarbon fuels from energy + water+ CO2b Using such fuels or hydrogen if the storage problem is solved (or maybe boron [3]) it is possibletherefore to convert the entire US energy economy to electricity provided mostly by IFR with hydrowind solar geothermal or biofuels where appropriate

The current US economy could be powered by about 17 TWe Each 1 GWe reactor needs 8ndash10 tonnesof startup fissile material which would at first largely be actinides from used LWR fuel and plutoniumand enriched uranium from decommissioned weapons The current US inventory of fissionable actinides is

aGEHitachi estimates $21-24 trillion ndash 11-13 of $188 trillionbThe Fischer-Tropsch process

Page 12 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

about 900 tonnes plus about 225 tonnes of weapons-grade 235Ua or enough to start up only about 110-140GWe of capacity using IFR With breeding that IFR fleet could have a sustained growth rate of 5 per yearor maybe more After startup the deployment rate would gradually accelerate from 5ndash7 per year helpedalong by actinides from still-operating LWRs and reach the desired 17 TWe goal within about 40ndash50 yearsor sooner to the extent renewable sources are appropriate or if uranium enrichment is continued

A single complete and permanent solution to all energy pollution nuclear waste and CO2 emission problemsis within our grasp All obstacles to that solution are political abetted and perpetuated by ignoranceintentional falsehoods irrational hysteria and opportunistic demagoguery not scientific technological orengineering problems Competition for energy resources is frequently blamed for wars IFR would eliminatethat excuse

Fast breeder reactors with fuel recycling will be developed There is no credible alternative There is an 800MWe reactor in service in Russiab and a 1200 MWe reactor is under development China has contractedto buy a BN-800 reactor from Russia South Korea has announced a 400 GWe fast-neutron reactor will beavailable for sale in 2020 India is building a prototype fast-neutron reactor to exploit their vast reservesof thorium China and Japan are making progress on their own designs American experts are retiring ordying far faster then younger ones are being prepared The United States will soon be a third-world countryin energy technology

Should the United States spend $188 trillion on CO2 reduction and mitigation $1075 trillion on coal sootdamage $68ndash102 trillion on solar cells $25 trillion on wind turbines $475 trillion on grid upgrades ndash about$130minus170 trillion altogether (and none of those would destroy one gram of nuclear waste) and suffer 2million unnecessary deaths due to coal emissions or spend $24 trillion on IFR (and render all nuclear wasteharmless)

For me the answer is obvious There is no time to waste We really ought to get started

Acknowledgment

This work benefited substantially from constructive criticism by the late Dr George S Stanford

Further reading

[1] Charles E Till and Yoon Il Chang Plentiful energy (2011) ISBN 978-1466384606

[2] William H Hannum Gerald E Marsh and George S Stanford Smarter use of nuclear waste ScientificAmerican (December 2005)httpswwwscientificamericancomarticlesmarter-use-of-nuclear-waste

[3] Tom Blees Prescription For The Planet The painless remedy for our energy and environmental crises(2008) ISBN 1-4196-5582-5 Impressive technical content plus off-putting gratuitous political insultsand nutty ideas about UN control of world energy

[4] D C Wade and Y I Chang The Integral Fast Reactor Physics of operation and safety NuclearScience and Engineering 100 4 (December 1988) 507ndash524

[5] Matthew D Eisaman Keshav Parajuly Alexander Tuganov Craig Eldershaw Noring Chang andKarl A Littau CO2 extraction from seawater using bipolar membrane electrodialysis Energy amp En-vironmental Science 5 6 (May 2012)

[6] National Renewable Energy Laboratory Land-use requirements of modern wind power plants in theUnited States httpwwwnrelgovdocsfy09osti45834pdf (2009)

a141 of LWR waste (httpwwwwhatisnuclearcomarticleswastehtmlcomposition) plus military inventory of 45tonnes 239Pu and 225 tonnes 235U (httpdsp-psdpwgscgccaCollection-RLoPBdPBPbp461-ehtm)

bhttpsenwikipediaorgwikiBN-800_reactor

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 13

[7] David Baurac Passively safe reactors rely on nature to keep them coolhttpwwwneanlgovAbouthnlogos-winter02-psrshtml (Winter 2002)

[8] United Nations Scientific Committee for the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) Scientific AnnexD Health effects due to radiation from the Chernobyl accident in Sources and Effects of IonizingRadiation 2008 Report to the General Assembly Volume II ISBN-13 978-92-1-142280-1 (2011)

[9] United Nations Scientific Committee for the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) Chapter IIIScientific Findings Part A Levels and effects of radiation exposure due to the nuclear accident afterthe great east-Japan earthquake and tsunami in Sources and Effects of Ionizing Radiation 2013 Reportto the General Assembly Volume I ISBN 978-92-1-142291-7 e-ISBN 978-92-1-056501-1 (2014)

[10] D L Goldman Some Implications of Using IFR High-Transuranic Plutonium in a Prolifer-ant Nuclear Weapon Program Technical Report CONDU-94-0199 Lawrence Livermore NationalLaboratory (March 1994)

[11] P E Donald E Lutz PGampE solar plants in the desert Truth about energy (2007)

[12] Nuclear Energy Agency Projected costs of generating electricityhttpwwwieaorgtextbasenppdffree2005ElecCostPDF (2005)

[13] Nuclear Energy Agency Projected costs of generating electricityhttpwwwieaorgTextbasenpsumElecCost2010SUMpdf (2010)

[14] Mark Fischetti The human cost of energy Scientific American (September 2011)

[15] Uranium Information Center (UIC) The Economics of Nuclear Power Technical report AustralianUranium Association Melbourne (March 2008)

[16] European Commission Research team of the ExternE project serieshttpwwwexterneinfoteamhtml (2007)

[17] B W Heard B W Brook T M L Wigley and C J A Bradshaw Burden of proof A comprehensivereview of the feasibility of 100 renewable-electricity systems Renewable and Sustainable EnergyReviews 76 (2017) 1122ndash1133

[18] William H Hannum The technology of the integral fast reactor and its associated fuel cycle Progressin Nuclear Energy 31 1ndash2 (1997)

[19] George S Stanford Integral fast reactors Source of safe abundant non-polluting powerhttpwwwnationalcenterorgNPA378html

[20] Gerald E Marsh and George S Stanford Bombs reprocessing and reactor grade plutonium Forumon Physics amp Society of the American Physical Society Newsletter 35 2 (April 2006)httphttpwwwthesciencecouncilcomindexphpgeorge-stanford

[21] Charles Till Plentiful energy and the IFR story The Republic News and Issues Magazine (June-September 2005) httpwwwsustainablenuclearorgPADspad0509tillhtml

[22] The Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP) httpwwwgnepenergygov

[23] Vic Reis Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP) in American Nuclear Society meetingReno NV American Nuclear Society (5 June 2006)httpwwwsustainablenuclearorgPADspad0606reispdf

[24] Doug Lightfoot Wallace Manheimer Dan Meneley Duane Pendergast and George S Stanford NuclearFission Fuel Is Inexhaustible in Climate Change Technology Conference (10ndash12 May 2006)Ottawa Ontario Canada

Page 14 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

[25] George S Stanford LWR Recycle Necessity or Impediment in ldquoGlobal 2003rdquo ANS WinterMeeting New Orleans American Nuclear Society (16ndash20 November 2003)httpwwwnationalcenterorgLWRStanfordpdf

[26] Senators Richard Lugar and Even Bayh A nuclear fuel bank advocated Chicago Tribune (22 October2006)

[27] Gerald E Marsh and George S Stanford Yucca Mountain The Right DecisionhttpwwwnationalcenterorgNPA415html (June 2002)

[28] Steve Kirsch httpskirschcompoliticsglobalwarmingifrhtm Summary blog

[29] Janne Wallenius Ateranvandning av langlivat avfall och sluten branslecykel mojlig i nya reaktortyper(Reuse of long-lived waste and a closed fuel cycle possible in new reactor types) Nucleus (April 2007)15ndash19

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 15

Appendix ndash Fission product yields from light-water reactors

See httpenwikipediaorgwikiFission_product_yield Sorted by half life

Number Isotope decay path Mass per

fractiondagger and half life GWe-year Comment

28336 131I802dminusrarr 131Xe 3150 kg Reduced by 195times10minus14 per year ndash 06 ng after one year

554478 Various lt 1y 5411 kglowast Decay to stable products

03912 106Ru3736dminusrarr 106Rh 3519 kg

asymp 035 134Cs2065yminusrarr 134Ba 3980 kg Created in the reactor from 133Cs by neutron capture

22713 147Pm262yminusrarr 147Sm 2833 kg

00297 125Sb276yminusrarr 125Te 315 g

lt00330 155Eu476yminusrarr 155Gd 434 g Mostly destroyed by neutron capture in the reactor

02717 85Kr1078yminusrarr 85Rb 1960 kg Currently released to the atmosphere

lt00003 113mCd141yminusrarr 113mIn 288 g Mostly destroyed by neutron capture in the reactor

57518 90Sr289yminusrarr 90Y 4393 kg Principal medium-term radiation and heat source319hminusrarr 90Zr

60899 137Cs3008yminusrarr 137Ba 7080 kg Principal medium-term radiation and heat source

lt04203 151Sm90yminusrarr 151Eu 5385 kg Mostly destroyed by neutron capture in the reactor

1e18yminusrarr 147Pm 151Eu is essentially stable262yminusrarr 147Sm1e11yminusrarr 143Nd

60507 99Tc211kyminusrarr 99Ru 5083 kg Dominant radiation source among fission products in the

range of 104 rarr 106 years candidate for transmutation

to 100Tc1546sminusrarr 100Ru

00236 126Sn230kyminusrarr 126Sb 252 g1235dminusrarr 126Te

00508 79Se295kyminusrarr 79Br 341 g

62856 93Zr153myminusrarr 93Nb 4960 kg

lt63333 135Cs23myminusrarr 135Ba 7255 kg

01629 107Pd65myminusrarr 107Ag 1479 kg

06576 129I157myminusrarr 129Xe 7198 kg Candidate for transmutation to 130I

1236hminusrarr 130Xe

asymp 644 133Cs stable 7268 kg A few percent converted by neutron capture to 134Cs

lt10888 149Sm stable 1377 kg

lt00065 157Gd stable 8659 gdaggerThe number fraction is the fraction of the atoms of fission products that are the specified isotope notthe mass fraction The mass is computed by multiplying the number fraction by the atomic mass andnormalizing the total to one tonne per GWe-yearlowastAssumes average mass number of 115

Thermal neutron transmutation of 90Sr 137Cs 126Sn 79Se 93Zr 135Cs and 107Pd is not practical due tolow neutron absorption cross section at the neutron temperature in LWRs

Page 16 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

The amount of an isotope at a particular time can be calculated by solving the differential equation

dN(t)

dt= k minus ln 2

τN(t)

where N(t) is the amount at time t in years k is the production rate per year and τ is the half-life in yearsThe solution (assuming N(0) = 0) is

N(t) =τk

ln 2

(1minus 2minustτ

)

From this when t gtgt τ the amount of each radioactive fission product is exponentially asymptotic toa constant approximately τk ln 2 decay compensates for production The amount of these materials isproportional to the power capacity not the total amount of energy produced If stable decay products arecontinuously removed the size of the repository is roughly constant

The following table shows asymptotic fractions and asymptotic masses per GWe (not GWe-year) of shortand medium half-life fission products The fraction is measured in terms of the annual number of fissionproduct atoms which is twice the number of actinide atoms consumed

Asymptotic number fraction and mass per GWe

Isotope Fraction Mass kg Isotope Fraction Mass kg

137Cs3008yminusrarr 137Ba 2643 3072lowast 90Sr

289yminusrarr 90Y2671dminusrarr 90Zr 2398 1831

Various τ lt 1y 7999 lt7806dagger 147Pm262yminusrarr 147Sm 85852 1071

85Kr1078yminusrarr 85Rb 4226 3048Dagger 134Cs

2065yminusrarr 134Ba 1043 1185lowast

106Ru3736dminusrarr 106Rh 05773 5192 155Eu

476yminusrarr 155Gd 02266 2981125Sb

276yminusrarr 125Te 01183 1254 131I802dminusrarr 131Xe 00898 0998

lowastAssumes isotope separation of 133Cs 134Cs 135Cs and 137Cs Total caesium

accumulates at 220 kgGWe-yrdaggerThe unclassified components are assumed to have an average mass number of

115 and to have a one year half life Since they are a mixture of products with

half lives under one year the true asymptotic fraction and mass are lessDagger 85Kr is currently vented to the atmosphere

The total mass of these products exponentially approaches an asymptote of less than 5844 kg per GWeor 9934 tonnes for a 17 TWe economy If their decay products are continuously removed storage isnot a problem If not reprocessed they are diluted by their decay products and therefore their specificactivity declines sufficiently that they are not radioactively dangerous after 200ndash300 years but the volumeis proportional to kt not k In 200 years of a 17 TWe economy the amount is less than 250000 tonnes lessthan 130000 cubic yards or less than 44 feet deep on a football field Separating the streams according tohalf life reduces the 200-year stream by 85

For long-lived isotopes ie t ltlt τ on a human time scale decay does not compensate for productionApproximating 2minustτ = exp(minust ln 2τ) asymp 1minus t ln 2τ the solution is N(t) asymp kt as expected The amount ofthese fission products is in proportion to the total amount of energy produced not the power capacity

Long-lived isotopes accumulate at the rate of about 182 kg per GWe-year or about 309 tonnes per year fora 17 TWe economy 99Tc and 129I can be destroyed by transmutation but the others amounting to about124 kg per GWe-year are impractical to destroy by transmutation If other isotopes of caesium (about 147kg per GWe-year) are not separated from 135Cs the total long-term disposal stream increases to 271 kg perGWe-year (but its specific activity decreases) If stored for about 30 years before disposal about 35 kg perGWe-year of 137Cs will decay leaving about 235 kg per GWe-year or about 400 tonnes per year for a 17TWe economy if the resulting stable 137Ba were removed Surely disposal of 400 tonnes per year of theseisotopes would not be a problem

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 17

Value of one tonne of used LWR fuelseparated and reduced to metal

Value Radioactivity

Value $tonne (MevBq-s) Half life Heat

Substance Mass (gr) $gr of waste α β γ (years) Wgr238U 944100 0143 135006 42 0496 447times109

236U 3971 0143 568 45 0494 234times107

235U 7974 0143 1140 44 0657 704234U 225 0143 32 48 00532 245times105

237Np 503 0143 72 47 00294 214times106

242Pu 454 0143 65 48 00449 376times105

241Pu 111 0143 16 49 01485 1435240Pu 2302 0143 329 52 05424 656times103

239Pu 5025 0143 719 52 00516 241times104

238Pu 95 0143 14 55 00435 8774 156241Am 1084 0143 155 55 00595 432243Am 85 0143 12 53 00747 737244Cm 4 0143 1 58 00428 1811 244

Actinides 965933 0143 13812996Zr 798 305 2434 Stable94Zr 741 305 2260 Stable93Zr 718 305 2190 0010 00305 161times106

92Zr 639 305 1948 Stable91Zr 590 305 1799 Stable90Zr 391 305 1192 Stable

Fuel cladding 3877 305 1182299Tc for alloys 771 1000 7710 00846 weak 2111times105

90Sr 391 200 782 01958 29 09388Sr 350 200 700 Stable137Cs 377 200 754 0187 0479 3017 042135Cs 300 200 600 00757 0662 23times106

133Cs 1125 200 2250 Stable

Heat sources 2543 200 5086

Br 22 100 22 Stable

Mo 3345 0257 860 Stable

Ru 2177 4578 99663 Stable

Ag 76 200 152 Stable

Cd 108 200 216 Stable

Ba 2311 0560 1295 Stable

Tb 26 3000 78 Stable

Dy 14 500 7 Stable

Rh 467 50000 233500 Stable87Rb 365 1178 4300 00817 481times1010

123Te 485 139 675 gt 92times 1016

138La 1215 180 2187 00329 144 102times1011

144Nd 3488 220 7673 190 229times1015

115In 26 1000 26 01532 441times1014

(cont)

Page 18 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

Value of one tonne of used LWR fuelseparated and reduced to metal (cont)

Value Radioactivity

Value $tonne (MevBq-s) Half life Heat

Substance Mass (gr) $gr of waste α β γ (years) Wgr142Ce 2355 028 662 15 gt 50times 1016

152Gd 142 548 778 215 14times1015

147Sm 200 200 400 225 106times1011

148Sm 167 200 334 19323 70times1015

149Sm 24 200 5 Stable151Sm 88 200 17 00196 00216 90152Sm + 154Sm 419 200 838 Stable107Pd 1371 8294 113710 00093 01476 65times106

90Y 456 1000 4560 09336 weak 64 hr152Eu 035 6000 21 00831 0122 134154Eu 1095 6000 6570 0221 0123 8601155Eu 016 6000 9 0047 0087 4753

Other solid 19297 4785583H 00034 294117 1000 00156 1254He 289 173 5 Stable85Kr 308 200 616 0687 0514 1072

Xe 5332 170 9050 Stable

Gases 5643 10671

Total fission 32131 1600 513937

products

Not counted 1936

Total 1000000 065 652066

httpbrcgove-mailsAugust10Commercial Value of 1 Metric ton of used fuelpdf with radioac-tivity data from httpwwwnndcbnlgovchart

Actinides can be recycled as fuel

Zirconium from fuel pin alloys and cladding and fission products can be recycled into new fuel pin claddingand alloys

Some radioactive elements produce sufficient heat to be usable as energy sources for example in radioisotopethermal generators for space applications These would not be isotopically separated 90Sr is 53 of thetotal strontium in fission products so heat production for all strontium is 049 Wgr 137Cs is 21 of thetotal caesium in fission products so heat production for all caesium is 0088 Wgr

Technetium is valuable for alloying with rhenium and has medical applications

Gases would be separated first then actinides then highly radioactive products This would reduce the costof separating and reducing the stable and less radioactive products

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 19

Appendix ndash Fuel and waste cycles

Actinides

IFRReprocessing

PrimaryProcessing

Disposaland sale

NonradioactiveLong half lifemostly 135Cs and 93Zr30 kg per GWe-yr665 kg per GWe-yearwith all cesium

ContinuousReprocessing

584 tonnes per GWe

Medium andshort half life

1 Tonneper GWe-year

99Tc 13 kg129I 177 kg

per GWe-yr

Usedfuel

Usedfuel

Sale

Nonradioactive

20 tonnes per GWe-yr

Enrichment

Sale

Disposaland sale

Enrichment LWR andLWR reprocessing

eventually phased out

LWRLWR

Reprocessing

Depleted uraniumstorage

Plutonium

8-10 tonnesper GWestartup

IFR

Enriched uranium

Fis

sion

pro

duct

s1

Ton

ne p

er G

We-

yr

MinedUranium

Acceleratortransmutation

Unused fuel and fissionproducts for transmutation

1 tonneper GWe-yr

Page 20 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

Appendix ndash Partitioning and Transmutation

Medium- and long-lived fission products could in principle be destroyed by transmuting them to isotopesthat are stable or have short half lives which decay to stable isotopes

The following tablea shows that 99Tc 129I 93Zr 107Pd and 135Cs can be transmuted much faster thantheir natural decay (ie T Jtrans ltlt T J12) The radiotoxicity of 107Pd and 135Cs is so small it is not worth

the bother to transmute them 93Zr can be recycled into fuel pin cladding or fuel alloying If 99Tc and129I were destroyed there could be very few remaining objections to nuclear power For 90Sr and 137CsT Jtrans gtgt T J12 so transmuting them is not interesting They are biologically active but can simply be

stored for about six half lives (180 years) after which the remaining amounts (069 and 11 kgGWe-yr) canbe discarded or sold If they are initially deposited in ldquodeep geologicalrdquo storage the containment durationrequirement for the repositories is significantly shorter by a factor of 1500 than for used LWR fuel For 79Seand 126Sn T Jtrans ltlt T J12 but T Jtrans is not sufficiently small to be interesting Although the radiotoxicity

per gram of 126Sn and 79Se is large they are produced in such small amounts that their total radiotoxicityper GWe-yr is comparable to that of the others

Isotope J decay Radiotoxicity σJ(nγ) (barns) T Jtrans (years) Mass per Transmuted

mode and T J12 Svg SvGWe-yr Thermal Fast Thermal Fast GWe-yr decay mode

90Sr289yminusrarr 90Y 1411k 1664M 014 001 1600 2200 1179 kg 91Sr

963hminusrarr 91Y137Cs

3008yminusrarr 137Ba 4187k 1152M 002 001 11000 2200 2752 kg 138Cs3341mminusrarr 138Ba

99Tc211kyminusrarr 99Ru 04 8708 43 02 51 110 2177 kg 100Tc

1546sminusrarr 100Ru126Sn

230kyminusrarr 126Sb 4936 4019 005 0005 4400 4400 0814 kg 127Sn21hminusrarr 127Sb

79Se295kyminusrarr 79Br 7478 1271 01 003 2200 7300 0170 kg 80Se is stable

93Zr153myminusrarr 93Nb 0102 2097 028 003 790 730 2056 kg 94Zr is stable

135Cs23myminusrarr 135Ba 0085 1009 13 007 170 310 1187 kg 136Cs

1304dminusrarr 136Ba107Pd

65myminusrarr 107Ag 00007 8309 03 05 730 44 6922 kg 108Pd is stable129I

157myminusrarr 129Xe 0718 4921 43 014 51 160 8853 kg 130I1236hminusrarr 130Xe

T Jtrans is the transmutation half-time for isotope J

Amounts and radioactivity from ORIGEN 22 Radiotoxicity dose factors from ICRP publication 119

This graph from the Swedish Radiation Safety Authorityb[29]

0001

001

01

1

10

100Radiotoxic inventory [Svg]

102 103 104 105 106101

TRU

FP

Uranium in nature

t[y]

shows that most of the radiotoxicity of used nuclear fuel arisesfrom the transuranics which IFR would consume and thatthe radiotoxicity of fission products is below the radiotoxic-ity of uranium ore within 200-300 years Transmuting 99Tcand 129I would reduce the long-term tail of the fission productradiotoxicity from 300 years onward by 60 The ordinateis radiotoxicity per gram of the original fission products notthe remaining fission products at the time specified by the ab-scissa Fission products are stored together stable ones arenot continuously separated from radioactive ones

aData from httpusersictpit˜pub_offlectureslns005Number_2Slessarev_1pdfbhttpwwwstralsakerhetsmyndighetenseGlobalPublikationerTidskriftNucleus2007Nucleus-4-2007pdf

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 21

Appendix ndash Worldwide limitations of alternative energy sources

Details in httpwwwphysicsucsdedu~tmurphyphys239shu_energypdf by Dr Frank Shu

Solar photovoltaic

Solar photovoltaic could in principle supply 15 TWe enough to power the Earthrsquos entire current energyeconomy using about 02 of the land area of the Earth below 60 latitude

Wind

Land-based wind cannot supply more than about 18 TWe or about 12 of the current energy economy

Ocean currents

The Kuroshio current which flows northward in the western Pacific past Taiwan and Japan has a powerof about 100 GW Assuming 50 efficiency of extraction allows about 50 GWe to be extracted The gulfstream flows twice as fast producing eight times as much power allowing about 400 GWe to be extractedExtracting significant power from ocean currents anywhere in the world would have profound effects onclimate

Coastal ocean waves

Assuming 50 efficiency of energy extraction ocean waves impinging on all the shorelines of the Earth couldprovide about 024 TWe or about 16 of the current energy economy

Geothermal

Geothermal sources cannot provide more than about 04 TWe or about 27 of the current energy economy

Tides

Energy extractable from tidal sources amounts to about 3 GWe worldwide or about 002 of the currentenergy economy It is only economically feasible in bays such as the Bay of Fundy which concentrate tidesto heights of as much as 5 meters Damming such bays has effects on the resonant frequency of nearby baysand estuaries profoundly altering currents and tides in nearby areas

Hydroelectric

The Earthrsquos land area is 148times 1012 m2 Average rainfall is 12 meters per year Water density is 103 kgm3

Total rainfall is thus about 18times 1017 kg Dropping 100 meters releases 18times 1017 kgtimes 98 ms2 times 100 m =

176times 1020 joule Spread out over a year 315times 107 s gives 56 TW Assuming 90 efficiency yields 5 TWeThe total available is less perhaps 35 TWe if polar regions are excluded Hydroelectric installations observeabout 30 capacity factor yielding total worldwide availability of about 1 TWe-yryr or about 67 of thecurrent energy economy

Total

Excluding solar photovoltaic and ocean currents alternative electricity sources could yield about 3443 TWeworldwide or about 23 of the current energy economy

Page 22 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

road transport to electric supply The remaining 15 is mostly for airplanes ships and heavy constructionand farm equipment

The efficiency of an electric vehicle starting from the power plant is about 73 (95 transmission efficien-cy times 88 battery charge efficiency times 88 battery discharge efficiency) while the efficiency of an internal-combustion engine is about 15a (but in a series hybrid automobile it approaches 30) Thus the efficiency ofroad transport would be increased by a factor of 49 (7315) by conversion to electricity while efficiencyof rail and pipeline transport would be increased by a factor of 63 (9515) because they donrsquot needbatteries Thus the 975 GWth demand for road rail and pipeline transport would be replaced by anincreased electric power demand of about 97549 asymp 200 GWe This leaves about 175 GWth supplied byliquid hydrocarbon fuels primarily for airplanes ships and heavy construction and farm equipment Liquidhydrocarbon fuels could ultimately be manufactured from energy + CO2 + water using the Fischer-Tropschprocess An especially interesting possibility is to extract carbonates from seawater using the PARC process[5] direct reactor heat at 530 to produce hydrogen using the Cu-Cl process and the Fischer-Tropsch processto produce alkanes

Taking 450 GWe current demand together with 900 GWe new demands for electric power shows that wewould have to expand our electric generating capacity by a factor of about 1350450 = 3 to cover all but 175GWth of our power needs Guessing 50 efficiency of converting electricity to liquid hydrocarbon fuelsb

about 350 GWe would be required to displace the remaining 175 GWth transportation demand for liquidhydrocarbon fuels for a total electric demand of 1700 GWe or about 375 times current capacity

CO2

About 2344 billion tonnes of CO2 were produced in 2006 by US fossil-fueled power plants (1938 from coal0319 from natural gas) Total US emissions were 5894 billion tonnes (1186 from residential 1035 fromcommercial 1658 from industrial 2014 from transportation)c

No CO2 is produced from operation of nuclear reactors although some CO2 is produced by the miningmilling refining fabrication and transportation of uranium fuel and in the construction (and eventualdestruction) of a power plant (mostly from cement manufacture)

Nuclear is a lower carbon emitting option than wind solar or hydroelectric primarily because of the hugeamounts of concrete steel aluminum and plastic needed for those technologiesd

The net of nuclear energy produced less fossil fuel energy consumed is so large that life cycle emissions ofCO2 for the current generation of LWRs are only 3-6 grams of carbon per kilowatt hour (gCkWh) As willbe shown below we have enough uranium already mined and refined to fuel IFR replacements for our LWRfleet for 10000 years to fuel IFR replacements for our entire electric generating capacity for 2000 years orto fuel IFR replacements for our entire energy economy for 530 years Averaged over this time scale withmined uranium used to 100 efficiency instead of 06 life cycle CO2 emissions for nuclear power plantsare only 001-002 gCkWh or about 300000 tonnes per year a reduction of a factor of 50000 from allsources in 2006 Once uranium mining milling and refining start again they would presumably be poweredby electricity from IFR so the CO2 emission rate would be even less

For wind turbines itrsquos 3ndash10 gCkWh For natural gas itrsquos 105ndash163 gCkWh For coal itrsquos 228ndash262 gCkWhde

ahttpwwwelectroautocominfopollmythshtmlbOther fuels such as boron [3] might have higher total system efficiencychttpwwweiadoegovoiaf1605ggrptcarbonhtmldldquoThe Energy Challengerdquo page 117 published by DTI (now BERR httphttpwwwberrgovukfilesfile31890pdf)

in 2007ehttpwwweiagovcneafelectricitypageco2_reportco2emisspdf

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 3

Wind

According to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory [6] the average total land use power density ofwind projects is 3 MWkm2 Utilities observe on average a 21 capacity factor for wind installations [3]giving an effective average wind project power density of 06 MWkm2 Capacity factors will surely decreasebecause high-potential sites are used first

To supply 17 TWe would require 33 of the nationrsquos land area (Alaska excluded) for wind farm projects

W Timothy Liu recognized world wide as an expert on wind says however that wind can never supplymore than 15 of the worldrsquos current total energy needs Professor Frank Shu of the University of Californiaat San Diego estimates worldwide potential is 18 TWea

Solar photovoltaic

The global mean average peak power output of solar panels as of 2014 is about 175 watts per square meter(Wm2) ndash more at the equator less at the poles more in sunny locales less in cloudy ones Assuming a15 capacity factor [3] leaves an effective power flux of 2625 Wm2 or 02625 GWe-yrkm2 per year So togenerate all 4064702 gigawatt hours produced in the US in 2007 would require asymp 17 700 square kilometersof cells To provide 1700 GWe-yr per year would require over 64800 square kilometers of cells plus perhaps10 more for spaces between the racks of collectors No problem Just put solar panels on the roofs ofhomes At 1000 ft2 (90 m2) per home thatrsquos only 721 million homes

By way of comparison the San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station occupied 84 acres (034 km2) andproduced 23 GWe-yr per year or 677 GWe-yrkm2 per year To produce 1700 GWe-yr per year wouldrequire 251 km2

Human activity already uses 25 of the biological output of the land area of the earth exclusive of Antarcticaand Greenland In parts of central and eastern Europe and India it is as high as 60 Converting moreland to solar power and biofuels would effectively increase this fraction thereby depriving the non-humanbiosphere the use of this land

Current photovoltaic cells have to produce energy for over four years to pay back the energy invested inproducing and deploying them As of 2013 photovoltaic and solar thermal sources contribute about 25 ofour total electric power Therefore we would need exponential increase of 25 per year for 17 years to bringthis to 100 of our electric power requirements or 23 years to provide all of our power requirements bywhich time photovoltaic cells would not have added one watt hour to our energy supply The current annualgrowth rate is 57 [3] at which rate we could build enough capacity to supply all of our power needs in 92years but even more time would be needed to repay the energy investment

Since the sun only shines during the day energy would have to be stored for use at night or transmittedfrom halfway around the world At some latitudes it doesnrsquot shine at all during winter so long-distancedistribution would be necessary

Storage is a significant problem to which insufficient attention has been given If all the batteries everproduced were fully charged at sundown (which is impossible because most have been recycled) they wouldnot supply current demand for one night An all-electric automobile fleet would use about 20 of energyoutput An electric automobile can operate for about five hours at full power If the entire electric automobilefleet were fully charged and connected to the grid at sundown it could supply 20 of demand for five hoursThen nobody could drive to work because the batteries would be discharged

Biofuels

The US currently gets 1 of road transportation fuels or about 9 GWth from biofuels using 10 ofcurrently-harvested cropland or about 13 of the nationrsquos land area

ahttpwwwphysicsucsdedu~tmurphyphys239shu_energypdf

Page 4 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

To supply all road rail pipeline ship airplane and heavy equipment fuels would require 1270 of currently-harvested cropland area or 130 of the nationrsquos total land area

Even providing only all ship airplane and heavy equipment fuels from biofuels would require 190 ofcurrently-harvested cropland area or about 18 of the nationrsquos total land area (Alaska included) Whatwould we eat

Currently-harvested cropland area is about 75 of total farmland area It is not possible to harvest 100of farmland Some must remain fallow each year to avoid depletion and some is pasture

Irrational hysteria about nuclear power regretted

Patrick Moore a cofounder of Greenpeace realizes that his view in the 1970rsquos that nuclear power and nuclearweapons are the same thing was naıve He now advocates nuclear power as ldquothe energy source that cansave our planet from another possible disaster catastrophic climate change rdquo ldquoNuclear energy is the onlylarge-scale cost-effective energy source that can reduce these emissions [of CO2] while continuing to satisfya growing demand for power rdquo For his honesty Greenpeace has kicked him outa on page 1

Hersquos not alone James Lovelock father of the Gaia theory Stewart Brand founder of the Whole EarthCatalog the late Bishop Hugh Montefiore founder and director of Friends of the Eartha James Hansenthe outspoken NASA climate scientist Mark Lynas an outspoken critic of nuclear power before learning ofIFR and many other former critics of nuclear power are now nuclear power advocates

Safety of nuclear power in OECD countries

According to the Paul Scherrer Institute Nuclear Energy and Safety Research Divisionbc nobody has diedin any OECD or EU-27 country as a result of the operation of a civilian nuclear electric power generator

Impressive as is the current perfect safety record IFR is a more modern design that incorporates additionalsafety features In particular above the designed operating temperature it has a negative temperaturecoefficient meaning that the hotter the reaction gets the slower it goes ultimately settling down at anequilibrium temperature far below the ldquomeltdownrdquo temperature This depends upon immutable laws ofphysics not upon skill of operators computers pumps or indeed on any moving parts at all other thanthermal expansion of the reactor core

Seven years after the Three Mile Island ac-

800

1000

1200

1400

-100 0 100 200 300 400 500

Time after loss of power (seconds)

Tem

per

atu

re (

oF

)

Maximum fuel claddingtemperature

Figure 1 Core temperature after loss of cooling

cident the prototype of IFR called EBR-IIwas compromised in the same way that theThree Mile Island reactor was compromised(loss of coolant flow) It shut down with-out any damage to the reactor harm to theoperators or release of radioactive materi-als A few hours earlier it had been com-promised in the other known way (loss ofheat sink) Again it shut down gracefully[3] One month later the Chernobyl reactorwas compromised in the second way Ac-cording to Pete Planchon [7] who ran thetests for an invited international audienceldquoBack in 1986 we actually gave a small [20MWe] prototype advanced fast reactor a couple of chances to melt down It politely refused both timesrdquo

aFriends of the Earth forced Bishop Montefiore to resign after he published a pro-nuclear article in a church magazinebhttpswwwpsichneschttpswwwpsichtaRiskENSECURE_Deliverable_D5_7_2_Severe_Accident_Riskspdf page 43

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 5

Three Mile Island

Notwithstanding the hysteria of Jack Lemmon Jane Fonda and Michael Douglas in the movie ldquoThe ChinaSyndromerdquo nobody that is NOBODY was injured by the Three Mile Island accident It was a brilliantsuccess story of careful designa which has since been improved by lessons learned Insurers paid out only$70 million The owners spent a further $973 million on cleanup Nobody has died of a radiation-relatedaccident in the history of the US civilian nuclear electric power reactor programf or civilian nuclear electricpower reactor programs in any OECD or EU-27 country

Chernobyl

Chernobyl was an accident waiting to happen The reactor had an inadequate containment structure it wasan inherently unsafe designb (nobody plans to build another 3 GWth reactor out of charcoal and surround itwith a tin-foil containment shed) and the operators literally (but unintentionally) blew it up by bypassingsafety interlocks and already-inadequate shutdown mechanisms ironically in a rush to get a safety checkdone The 173-page report of the United Nations Scientific Committee for the Effects of Atomic Radiation(UNSCEAR)cd[8] concludes that

bull 134 plant workers and emergency workers suffered Acute Radiation Syndrome (ARS) from high dosesof radiation Two workers were killed by falling debris One died from coronary thrombosis

bull In the first few months after the accident 28 ARS victims died

bull Although another 19 ARS sufferers had died by 2006 those deaths had different causes not usuallyassociated with radiation exposure

bull Skin injuries and cataracts were among the most common consequences in ARS survivors

bull Although several hundred thousand people as well as the emergency workers were involved in recoveryoperations there is no consistent evidence of health effects that can be attributed to radiation exposureapart from indications of increased incidence of leukemia and of cataracts among those who receivedhigher doses

bull 6000 cases of thyroid cancer were reported between 1991 and 2005 in affected areas It is not possibleto state scientifically that radiation caused a particular cancer in a particular individual By 2005only fifteen of those cases had been fatal

bull Radiation doses to the general public in the three most affected countries (Ukraine Belarus Russia)were relatively low and most residents ldquoneed not live in fear of serious health consequencesrdquo In themost affected areas the average additional dose over the period 1986-2005 is approximately equivalentto that of one computed tomography scan

bull There is no ongoing increased risk of solid tumors or blood cancers

The World Nuclear Association attributes 30 deaths to the accidente ldquoTragic as those deaths were theypale in comparison to the more than 5000 coal-mining deaths worldwide every yearrdquo says Mooref

ahttpwwwworld-nuclearorginfoinf36htmlbThe Soviet RBMK reactor design is based upon the design of a military reactor which was in turn based upon de-

sign documents for the US Hanford reactors stolen from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory before the Hanford reactorswere built optimized for production of plutonium for weapons purposes scaled up for civilian nuclear power production(httpwwwworld-nuclearorginfoinf31html)

chttpwwwunscearorgunscearenchernobylhtmldhttpwwwunisunviennaorgunisenpressrels2011unisinf398htmlehttpwwwworld-nuclearorginfoSafety-and-SecuritySafety-of-PlantsChernobyl-Accident ndash see Appendix 1

Sequence of eventsfhttpwwwwashingtonpostcomwp-dyncontentarticle20060414AR2006041401209html

Page 6 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

More to the point Chernobyl was a steam explosion followed by a hydrogen explosiona followed by agraphite fire Although a test reactor at Idaho National Laboratory was intentionally destroyed by promptcriticalityb it is impossible for a municipal nuclear reactor licensed in an OECD or EU-27 country to generatea nuclear explosion IFR being liquid-metal cooled has no water in the core and is not graphite moderatedA steam explosion a hydrogen explosion or a graphite fire is impossible in the core of an IFR

Fukushima

Despite widespread hysteria a reportc from the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of AtomicRadiation (UNSCEAR) presented to the UN General Assembly in October 2013 [9] shows that nobody waskilled injured or made ill by the destruction of the reactors at Fukushima by the earthquake and tsunamiand nobody will be

From Page 9 section 2 ldquoDose Assessmentrdquo para 29 ldquoThe Japanese people receive an effective dose of radiationfrom naturally occurring sources of on average about 21 millisieverts (mSv) annually and a total of about170 mSv over their lifetimesrdquo

From page 11 section 3 ldquoHealth Implicationsrdquo para 38 ldquoNo radiation-related deaths or acute diseases have beenobserved among the workers and general public exposed to radiation from the accidentrdquo

para 40 ldquoFor adults in Fukushima Prefecture the Committee estimates [the increase in] average lifetime effectivedoses to be of the order of 10 mSv or less a discernible increase in cancer incidence in this populationthat could be attributed to radiation exposure from the accident is not expectedrdquo

For comparison the dose from an abdominal and pelvic CT scan repeated with and without contrast wouldbe about 30 mSv or about ten yearsrsquo worth of average normal background radiation This increases lifetimecancer risk from 1 in 5 to 1005 in 5 Yearly dose on the Tibetan plateau is 13-20 mSv In areas of monazitedeposits in Brazil and India doses exceed 36 mSvyear

Nuclear power reactor waste

Foremost among the benefits of IFR beyond enhanced inherent safety the amount of waste is a factor of 20less than the amount produced by LWRs Most IFR waste is dangerously radioactive for five years and theremainder for a few hundred years instead of a few hundred thousand years [1]

The 2000 tons of used fuel removed from US LWRs per year are currently considered waste but are actuallya valuable resource because only 5 of their energy content has been extracted

Used fuel has a density of about 11 gramscm3 or about 8 tonsyd3 As of 2006 total US commercial fueldischarges amounted to about 59160 tonnesd or about 7400 cubic yards of accumulated ldquowasterdquo This isalready enough for 8ndash10 Yucca Mountains If piled on a 3000 square yard football field it would be 74feet deep (but it would melt) The 100000000 tons of eternally-toxic solid wastee from operation of UScoal-fired power plants in 2006 alone would be about 74000 feet or about 14 miles deepf amounting to 740miles in fifty years

aSteam reacted with zirconium fuel pin cladding to produce hydrogenbNuclear fission produces two populations of neutrons those emitted within about ten nanoseconds (prompt neutrons) and

those emitted up to several seconds later (delayed neutrons) If critical neutron flux arises from prompt neutrons it is notpossible to control the reaction

chttpwwwunscearorgdocsGAreportsA-68-46_e_V1385727pdfdhttpwwweiadoegovcneafnuclearspent_fuelussnfdatahtml reports LWR waste of 42750 tonnes through 2002

httpwwweiadoegovemeuaertxtstb0902xls reports 631 GWe-yr nuclear production 2003ndash2009 and 16 TWe-yr from1957ndash2002 Assuming the same 26718 tonnesTWe-yr 1957ndash2002 rate for 2003ndash2009 gives 16860 additional tonnes

eAccording to httpwwwornlgovinfoornlreviewrev26-34textcolmainhtml there is 163 times more energy inthe waste from coal-fired power plants than in the coal that was burned 47 tonnes of uranium and 116 tonnes of thorium perGWe-yr about 0036 of a coal-fired power plantrsquos solid waste Power plants account for only 74 of coal combustion

fAccording to httpwwwtfhrcgovhnr20recyclewastecbabs1htm density is 10125ndash135 tonsyd3

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 7

In addition to the 5-used-fuel ldquowasterdquo there are about 900000 tons of depleted-uranium ldquowasterdquo left overfrom the enrichment process containing more than 90 of the energy in the uranium that was mined

The rate at which waste generates heat is a more important factor than its volume With transuranicspresent ndash as in what we currently call ldquowasterdquo ndash the long-term capacity of a repository is determined by theheat those transuranics will generate millennia hence With them removed the primary determining factorbecomes heat generated by 137Cs and 90Sr With transuranics removed but 137Cs and 90Sr remaining thecapacity of a repository is increased by a factor of about five compared to the current technology With only137Cs and 90Sr remaining the capacity is enormously increased [1]

A reactor (IFR or otherwise) produces about 1 tonne of fission products per GWe-year The current USLWR fleet produces about 90 GWe-year per year thereby generating about 90 tonnes of fission productsper year about 5 of the total ldquowasterdquo or about 300 milligrams per American Radioactive 137Cs and90Sr amount to about 39 kg per GWe-year Not all isotopes of caesium and strontium are radioactive andisotopic separation is costly so it makes more sense to consider total caesium and strontium fission productswhich amount to 92 kgGWe-year about 83 Tonnesyr or about 24 milligrams per American per year Ifall those fission products within the 59160 tonnes of ldquowasterdquo accumulated from 1957 until 2006 were spreadon a football field the pile would be about 044 inches deep A pile of all fission products including thosethat are nonradioactive or have very short half lives would be 48 inches deep (but it would melt)

If the current American supply of LWRs were replaced by IFRs the stream of ldquowasterdquo would be reduced from1818 to 90 tonnes per year and if left mixed instead of separated those 90 tonnes would be less radiotoxicthan mined uranium before 200ndash300 years instead of 300000 years as for LWR ldquowasterdquo

The nonradioactive short-lived and long-lived fission products could be separated Strontium and caesiumconstitute 9 of fission products 6 of fission products (99Tc and 129I) have very long half lives but canbe transmuted to short-lived isotopes (1546 seconds and 1236 hours) by neutron absorption within thereactor thereby effectively destroying them 93Zr another 2 of fission products can be recycled into fuelpin cladding or alloying (where it doesnrsquot matter that itrsquos radioactive and the radioactivity is low-energybeta ndash electron ndash emission anyway) The remaining 89 are less radiotoxic than mined uranium before five toten years The stream requiring long-term storage (strontium and caesium) would thereby be substantiallyreduced to about 92 kgGWe-yr The specific activity (heat generation per kilogram) of the remainderwould be reduced Other fission products (primarily 137Cs and 90Sr) could in principle be destroyed byneutron transmutation but it takes longer than their normal decay Even if they are simply stored howevertheir specific activity is so low that storage is not a significant problem At an average of $16 milliontonne(some much higher) the appreciable commercial value of many fission productsa reduces the storage problemeven further

If all current US electric power generating capacity were replaced with IFR the stream of fission productswould amount to 450 tonnes per year of which 41 tonnes require long-term custody This is less than onequarter the quantity of 5-used fuel that is generated by the LWRs that supply about 20 of our presentelectric power needs

A 17 TWe energy economy powered by IFRs would produce 1700 tonnes of fission products per year orabout 65 less than the 1818 tonnes of 5-used fuel removed from the LWRs that currently supply onlyabout 53 of our energy needs Long-lived fission products (mostly 93Zr and 135Cs) amount to about 131kg per GWe-year or 223 tonnes (730 milligrams per American) altogether per year 93Zr could be recycledinto fuel-pins so it neednrsquot be stored 93Zr and 135Cs would occupy about 121 yd3 or about 14 inch ifspread on a football field They have such low specific activity that they are not considered to be dangerousIf 133Cs (stable) 134Cs (2065y) and 137Cs (3008y) are not removed the amount is 269 yd3 per year

Fission products with half-lives less than thirty years are less radiotoxic than mined natural uranium before200ndash300 years so custody is simple for them Production and radioactive decay offset each other expo-nentially approaching an asymptote of about 584 tonnes of radioactive material per GWe (not GWe-year)If stable decay products are continuously removed a constant capacity is needed for radioactive materialstorage preferably co-located with each IFR

That is storage and disposal are not problems and therefore IFR waste is not a problem

ahttpbrcgove-mailsAugust10Commercial Value of 1 Metric ton of used fuelpdf

Page 8 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

Refer to the appendices for more details

Availability of nuclear fuel

For LWRs the concentration of 235U the fissile isotope is typically enriched from the natural 071 toabout 42 leaving behind a supply of uranium depleted in 235U that is about 57 times the amount ofldquoreactor graderdquo enriched uranium Combining this and the 4-5 fuel efficiency of LWR we extract lessthan 06 of the energy in mined uranium In a reactor some of the 238U is transmuted into 239Pu andother transuranics which are directly usable as IFR fuel In an IFR energy economy once started thosetransuranics rather than 235U provide much of the fission energy and the neutrons needed to transmute 238Uinto more transuranics That is (a) enrichment is not necessary and (b) the currently left-behind depleteduranium is valuable as future fuel

Using a rule of thumb that fissioning 09 kg of actinides yields 1 GWth-day of energy and generating 1 GWerequires 3 GWth to be expended 1 GWe-yr requires 36525 times 3 times 09 = 981 kg asymp 1 tonne of actinides tobe converted to fission products If mined uranium were used to 100 capacity instead of 06 total USpower demand of about 1700 GWe would require about 1700 tonnes of new uranium per year

IFRs could use the current US supply of LWR ldquowasterdquo a substance of which we are desperately eager tobe rid as fuel If nothing is done other than to build an IFR to replace each LWR as it reaches the endof its useful lifea about 50 tonnes of start-up fuel per IFR plus one tonne per year of make-up uraniumthereafterb would be needed That is assuming there are 900000 tonnes of LWR ldquowasterdquo on hand (usedfuel plus depleted uranium) there is enough fuel from that alone for about 10000 years without miningmilling refining or enriching any new uranium

If all current US electric generating capacity were replaced with IFRs about 450 tonnes of makeup fuelwould be needed per year that is there is enough fuel for about 2000 years If the entire energy economywere powered by IFR about 1700 tonnes per year would be needed that is there is enough fuel from currentLWR ldquowasterdquo alone for almost 530 years Is it really ldquowasterdquo

Uranium is four times more common than tin and ten times more common than silver Currently knownreserves of uranium in ore of current commercial grade contain about five million tonnes of the metalc Thatis enough for about 4300 years if used in 90 GWe capacity of US LWRs or about 4800 years if all 1700GWe US power demand were supplied by IFRs Current total worldwide energy demand is about fourtimes US energy demand so if the entire world were to be powered by IFRs at current demand there isenough uranium counting only known reserves profitably recoverable at $138kgU for about 1200 years

The picture isnrsquot so bleak however because the efficiency of use of uranium by IFRs means the fuel costper kWh would be the same as for LWRs at $1380006 asymp $23000kgU or about 0001centkWh This makesit economically feasible to use lower grade ores or more importantly to extract uranium from seawaterwhere there is estimated to be about 45 billion tonnes this is enough for more than a million years ofcurrent worldwide energy demand Even this however is a substantial under-estimate because uraniumis continuously flowing into the oceans from rivers That is uranium alone is an essentially inexhaustibleresource Thorium which could in principle serve as fertile future fuel is four times more common thanuranium so even without river inflow all current worldwide power needs could be supplied for about fivemillion years using nuclear fission Nuclear fission is an effectively inexhaustible energy resource

Weapons proliferation

The ldquoIntegralrdquo in IFR means that the entire system including fuel reprocessing is integrated in one facilityActinides go into an IFR none come out except to start a new IFR Opportunities for theft of partly-used

aWe wouldnrsquot replace LWRs prematurely because the IFR system functions symbiotically with the current fuel cyclebIFR fuel has to be asymp 20 fissile (mainly PU-239) and 80 fertile (U-238) Once an IFR has been loaded it can generate its

own fissile material from fertile material so all it would need to keep running is one tonne of unenriched uranium per GWe-yearc httpwwwworld-nuclearorginfoinf75html

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 9

fuel would be reduced because it would not be transported to a separate facility for processing

Unlike LWRs an IFR power economy once started does not need its uranium fuel to be enriched in 235UThis means that it is not necessary to have any facility to enrich uranium for other than military purposesA reactor owner does need however either ironclad international guarantees of assured fuel supply or theability to reprocess partly used fuel

The ability to reprocess fuel implies the presence of a cadre of professionals who are familiar with most of thetechniques for making weapons-grade materials The mixture of actinides taken out of IFR for reprocessingpresents more difficult radiation thermal chemical and metallurgical problems to would-be weaponeersthan those taken from LWR It is unsuitable for direct use in weapons primarily because of the presenceof 243Am 241Pu and non-fissionable 238Pu 240Pu and 242Pu but is admirably suited as IFR fuel 241Puemits 50 times more heat 5000 times more neutrons and 100 times more gamma radiation than 239PuThis could damage a weapon or cause predetonation and makes maintenance of fine mechanical tolerancesdifficult Expensive remote assembly is mandatory Separating 239Pu from nearby isotopes is more difficultthan separating 238U from 235U first because the mass difference is smaller and second because synthesizingthe gaseous compound PuF6 needed for centrifugal or gas diffusion isotope separation is difficult Eventhough the problem of extracting weapons-grade materials from LWR is easier than for IFR nobody hasdone so Every nuclear weapons program has depended upon enriched uranium or upon purpose-builtreactors optimized to produce 239Pu and these have been nation-scale projects not backyard garage-scaleprojects that a terrorist cell might successfully undertake The simple conclusion is that used LWR fuel isjust about the most difficult material from which to produce nuclear weapons [3] A Lawrence LivermoreNational Laboratory study [10] concluded that spent IFR fuel cannot be used to make a nuclear weaponwithout significant further processing

Even if the difficulties of producing weapons from used reactor fuel could be overcome IFR presents nonew problems of weapons proliferation because reprocessing and enrichment are not substantially differentfrom the standpoint of international oversight No countryrsquos desire or ability to produce nuclear weaponshas ever been affected by any other countryrsquos decision to reprocess or not to reprocess used municipalreactor fuel Every advanced industrial country could in principle produce nuclear weapons independentlyof any other countryrsquos decision to reprocess or not to reprocess used municipal reactor fuel If a countrycannot be trusted with this technology do not sell reactors or fuel reprocessing systems to them The samelong-distance transmission that would be required for solar power would serve their needs

Costs

GE estimates their version of IFR known as S-PRISMa can be built for about $15-2W or $22W after a90 capacity factor is incorporated [11] A GEHitachi consortium estimates they could produce IFR for$12-14W [3] The Diablo Canyon generating station produces electricity for 5cent per kWh The Palo Verdestation was constructed for $179W and produces electricity for 43cent per kWh

T Boone Pickens proposed to build a 4 GWe wind farm The estimated cost ballooned to $3W or $15Wafter incorporating a 21 capacity factor [3] The project was abandoned The Sacramento Municipal UtilityDistrict (SMUD) reports a 15 capacity factor for solar photovoltaic ldquoNo system with capacity factors thislow is a viable energy producing systemrdquo [11] After incorporating these capacity factors the effectiveconstruction costs increase to $4000-$8500kWe for wind and $16000-$60000kWe for solar SMUDestimates a 69-year financial payback for solar photovoltaicb Because wind and solar are diffuse sources$11-13 trillion would be needed for grid upgrades [3] adding another $750kWe to the construction costBecause they are diffuse and erratic sources additional costs for storage would be necessary

In 2017 the lowest-price solar cells cost $180 per peak watt With 15 capacity factor this is $12 peraverage watt Amortized over 25 years at 5 and deducting the four-plus year energy payback capital costalone is 117cent per kWh (181cent at 10) The GVEA 40 battery in Fairbanks Alaska is the largest utility-scale

aSuper Power Reactor Inherently Safe ModularbLifetime is only 30ndash40 years See httpwwwostigovbridgeservletspurl755637-oDWEJRwebviewable755637pdf

or httpwwwglobalspeccomLearnMoreOptics_Optical_ComponentsOptoelectronicsPhotovoltaic_Cells

Page 10 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

storage battery It weighs 1200 tonnes provides 10 MWh storage and cost $350Wh Amortized over fiveyears this is 57centkWha To have constant output the panel capacity needs to be twice the demand ndash halffor immediate use and half to charge batteries so the capital cost for cells plus storage is 291cent per kWhThis does not include mounting transportation operation maintenance land recycling or grid upgradesThe equation used to calculate amortized cost is

A(n) = rA(nminus 1)minus p

where A(0) is the initial cost per watt and A(n) is the amount remaining to be paid after n payments ofp dollars at an interest rate of 100(r minus 1) per payment period Solving this equation for A(n) settingA(n) = 0 and solving for p gives

p = A(0) rnr minus 1

rn minus 1

The cost per watt hour is pH where H is hours per payment period If the payment period is one yearand power is provided continuously H is 8766 (36525times24) Because solar panels have a 45 year energypayback period the final value needs to be multiplied by n(nminus 45) where n is years

The following table compares construction costs for eight renewable sources [3] Costs are per peak kWenot average kWe The capacity factor is not included

Cost Cost Cost CostSource $kWe Source $kWe Source $kWe Source $kWeWind (onshore) 800 Wind (offshore) 1700 Hydro 2000 Geothermal 2100Biomass 2300 Solar (thermal) 2400 Tidal 2800 Solar (PV) 5900

The following table compares operating and construction costs for six electric power technologies [3] [12][13] External grid upgrade and storage costs are not included Since 1981 nuclear power utilities havebeen paying 01centkWh into the Federal Nuclear Waste Fund so LWR decommissioning and ldquowasterdquo handlingcosts are included as internal costs

Operating Average Effective FederalCost Construction Capacity Construction Life Delivered Subsidy

Fuel centkWh Cost $kWe Factor Cost $kWedagger (yrs) centkWhDagger centkWhlowast

LWR Nuclear 49 1000-2000 gt 90 1111-2222 50 515ndash541 0210Coal 60-63 1000-1500 gt 90 1111-1667 50 625ndash668 0056Hydro 40-80 2000 asymp 33 6000 100 469ndash869 0136Gas 76-92 400-800 gt 90 444-888 30 777ndash954 0060Wind 49-100 1000-2000 asymp 21 4762-9524 20 762ndash1543 3533Solar PV 150-300 6000-9000 asymp 15 40000-60000 30 3021ndash5282 23131daggerConstruction cost capacity factorDaggerOperating cost + construction cost ( capacity factor times lifetime ) Amortization not includedlowasthttpwwweiagovanalysisrequestssubsidy tables ES4 and ES5 for 2013

Particulate emissions alone from coal-fired power plants cost $165 billion [3] and cause 30100 prematuredeaths 603000 asthma attacks and 5130000 lost work days per year in the United States alone [14]

Nuclear power has the lowest delivered costs in ten of twelve countries studied [15] (India China and Russiawere not included) The two that did not have the lowest costs were the United States and Korea Thereport did not address the significant costs in the United States of protracted litigation and continuouslyrevised regulations and slow licensing of individual reactors It would be helpful if the Nuclear RegulatoryCommission were to adopt the French system of licensing reactor designs instead of individual reactors IFRs

aProf Nate Lewis in a private seminar Where will we get our energy at Caltech Jet Propulsion Laboratory estimated40-50centkWh

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 11

would be less expensive to build and operate than current technology because they are simpler standardizeddesigns instead of complicated one-off designs [3] The system is further substantially simplified because thecoolant operates at atmospheric pressure instead of 160 atmospheres and it absorbs essentially all neutronsthat escape the core so special alloys and over-designing are not needed to compensate for containmentvessel embrittlement caused by neutron damage and there are much fewer radioactive structural neutronactivation products

When external costs are included nuclear costs are estimated [16] to be about one tenth as much as coalCO2 emissions are explicitly excluded from costs of fossil-fuel systems Nuclear utilities have been paying01centkWh into the Federal Waste Disposal Fund since 1981 for used nuclear fuel disposal and reactor decom-missioning these costs are included as internal costs for LWR The radiological cost of mining is includedbut for IFR that would be irrelevant since there is already enough uranium above ground for several cen-turies For IFR fuel would be cheaper than free for a few hundred years because it would consume the LWRldquowasterdquo of which we are desperately eager to be rid and disposal of IFR waste would be far less expensivethan disposal of 5-used LWR fuel so IFR must have much lower than one tenth the operating cost of coal

The United States has already invested $8 Billion in the Yucca Mountain repository It is estimated to cost$436 Billion to complete [3] and current waste would require about 8-10 times more capacity than YuccaMountain would have at completion IFR would make Yucca Mountain irrelevant and is even more importantnow that the Obama administration has canceled Yucca Mountain Why is the Nevada Congressionaldelegation not insisting that the IFR demonstration project be restarted

Tony Blairrsquos government commissioned a study by Sir Nicholas Stern former vice president and chiefeconomist for the World Bank He recommended committing 1 of global GDP to reduce CO2 emissions to25-70 below current levels by mid century and that increased extreme weather costs alone could reach1 of GDP [3] For the United States that amount of todayrsquos GDP would be $290 billion per year In thenext section we estimate that producing an energy economy entirely powered by IFR could be accomplishedin fewer than 65 years Spending $290 billion per year on CO2 remediation during that interval would cost$188 trillion (in todayrsquos dollars) At $22BGWe for IFR 17 TWe would cost $374 trilliona ndash 20 asmuch ndash and would essentially eliminate CO2 emissions not reduce them by 25-70

What can be done

As admirable as they are conservation biofuels wind geothermal tides waves ocean currents and hydroalone or together cannot power any economy nor can they destroy the 59160 tonnes of ldquowasterdquo from thefirst 53 years of US LWR operations and more accumulated since 2006 Wind and solar are much moreexpensive than IFR There are no good hydro sites that have been exploited A 2017 study [17] concludedthat a 100 renewable-electricity system might not be physically feasible let alone economically viableCoal is terrible (and more expensive as well) Natural gas is more benign than coal but still produces CO2Oil produces CO2 and importing it and protecting access to overseas sources is expensive in both blood andnational treasure Solar is much more expensive than IFR and wouldnrsquot destroy waste That leaves IFR asthe only alternative that is both sufficient and economically viable

There are no serious plans for electric airplanes ships or heavy construction or farm equipment so someliquid hydrocarbon fuels will be needed for the foreseeable future Hydrogen is at present a nonstarterbecause of the storage problem Fortunately we know how to make hydrocarbon fuels from energy + water+ CO2b Using such fuels or hydrogen if the storage problem is solved (or maybe boron [3]) it is possibletherefore to convert the entire US energy economy to electricity provided mostly by IFR with hydrowind solar geothermal or biofuels where appropriate

The current US economy could be powered by about 17 TWe Each 1 GWe reactor needs 8ndash10 tonnesof startup fissile material which would at first largely be actinides from used LWR fuel and plutoniumand enriched uranium from decommissioned weapons The current US inventory of fissionable actinides is

aGEHitachi estimates $21-24 trillion ndash 11-13 of $188 trillionbThe Fischer-Tropsch process

Page 12 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

about 900 tonnes plus about 225 tonnes of weapons-grade 235Ua or enough to start up only about 110-140GWe of capacity using IFR With breeding that IFR fleet could have a sustained growth rate of 5 per yearor maybe more After startup the deployment rate would gradually accelerate from 5ndash7 per year helpedalong by actinides from still-operating LWRs and reach the desired 17 TWe goal within about 40ndash50 yearsor sooner to the extent renewable sources are appropriate or if uranium enrichment is continued

A single complete and permanent solution to all energy pollution nuclear waste and CO2 emission problemsis within our grasp All obstacles to that solution are political abetted and perpetuated by ignoranceintentional falsehoods irrational hysteria and opportunistic demagoguery not scientific technological orengineering problems Competition for energy resources is frequently blamed for wars IFR would eliminatethat excuse

Fast breeder reactors with fuel recycling will be developed There is no credible alternative There is an 800MWe reactor in service in Russiab and a 1200 MWe reactor is under development China has contractedto buy a BN-800 reactor from Russia South Korea has announced a 400 GWe fast-neutron reactor will beavailable for sale in 2020 India is building a prototype fast-neutron reactor to exploit their vast reservesof thorium China and Japan are making progress on their own designs American experts are retiring ordying far faster then younger ones are being prepared The United States will soon be a third-world countryin energy technology

Should the United States spend $188 trillion on CO2 reduction and mitigation $1075 trillion on coal sootdamage $68ndash102 trillion on solar cells $25 trillion on wind turbines $475 trillion on grid upgrades ndash about$130minus170 trillion altogether (and none of those would destroy one gram of nuclear waste) and suffer 2million unnecessary deaths due to coal emissions or spend $24 trillion on IFR (and render all nuclear wasteharmless)

For me the answer is obvious There is no time to waste We really ought to get started

Acknowledgment

This work benefited substantially from constructive criticism by the late Dr George S Stanford

Further reading

[1] Charles E Till and Yoon Il Chang Plentiful energy (2011) ISBN 978-1466384606

[2] William H Hannum Gerald E Marsh and George S Stanford Smarter use of nuclear waste ScientificAmerican (December 2005)httpswwwscientificamericancomarticlesmarter-use-of-nuclear-waste

[3] Tom Blees Prescription For The Planet The painless remedy for our energy and environmental crises(2008) ISBN 1-4196-5582-5 Impressive technical content plus off-putting gratuitous political insultsand nutty ideas about UN control of world energy

[4] D C Wade and Y I Chang The Integral Fast Reactor Physics of operation and safety NuclearScience and Engineering 100 4 (December 1988) 507ndash524

[5] Matthew D Eisaman Keshav Parajuly Alexander Tuganov Craig Eldershaw Noring Chang andKarl A Littau CO2 extraction from seawater using bipolar membrane electrodialysis Energy amp En-vironmental Science 5 6 (May 2012)

[6] National Renewable Energy Laboratory Land-use requirements of modern wind power plants in theUnited States httpwwwnrelgovdocsfy09osti45834pdf (2009)

a141 of LWR waste (httpwwwwhatisnuclearcomarticleswastehtmlcomposition) plus military inventory of 45tonnes 239Pu and 225 tonnes 235U (httpdsp-psdpwgscgccaCollection-RLoPBdPBPbp461-ehtm)

bhttpsenwikipediaorgwikiBN-800_reactor

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 13

[7] David Baurac Passively safe reactors rely on nature to keep them coolhttpwwwneanlgovAbouthnlogos-winter02-psrshtml (Winter 2002)

[8] United Nations Scientific Committee for the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) Scientific AnnexD Health effects due to radiation from the Chernobyl accident in Sources and Effects of IonizingRadiation 2008 Report to the General Assembly Volume II ISBN-13 978-92-1-142280-1 (2011)

[9] United Nations Scientific Committee for the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) Chapter IIIScientific Findings Part A Levels and effects of radiation exposure due to the nuclear accident afterthe great east-Japan earthquake and tsunami in Sources and Effects of Ionizing Radiation 2013 Reportto the General Assembly Volume I ISBN 978-92-1-142291-7 e-ISBN 978-92-1-056501-1 (2014)

[10] D L Goldman Some Implications of Using IFR High-Transuranic Plutonium in a Prolifer-ant Nuclear Weapon Program Technical Report CONDU-94-0199 Lawrence Livermore NationalLaboratory (March 1994)

[11] P E Donald E Lutz PGampE solar plants in the desert Truth about energy (2007)

[12] Nuclear Energy Agency Projected costs of generating electricityhttpwwwieaorgtextbasenppdffree2005ElecCostPDF (2005)

[13] Nuclear Energy Agency Projected costs of generating electricityhttpwwwieaorgTextbasenpsumElecCost2010SUMpdf (2010)

[14] Mark Fischetti The human cost of energy Scientific American (September 2011)

[15] Uranium Information Center (UIC) The Economics of Nuclear Power Technical report AustralianUranium Association Melbourne (March 2008)

[16] European Commission Research team of the ExternE project serieshttpwwwexterneinfoteamhtml (2007)

[17] B W Heard B W Brook T M L Wigley and C J A Bradshaw Burden of proof A comprehensivereview of the feasibility of 100 renewable-electricity systems Renewable and Sustainable EnergyReviews 76 (2017) 1122ndash1133

[18] William H Hannum The technology of the integral fast reactor and its associated fuel cycle Progressin Nuclear Energy 31 1ndash2 (1997)

[19] George S Stanford Integral fast reactors Source of safe abundant non-polluting powerhttpwwwnationalcenterorgNPA378html

[20] Gerald E Marsh and George S Stanford Bombs reprocessing and reactor grade plutonium Forumon Physics amp Society of the American Physical Society Newsletter 35 2 (April 2006)httphttpwwwthesciencecouncilcomindexphpgeorge-stanford

[21] Charles Till Plentiful energy and the IFR story The Republic News and Issues Magazine (June-September 2005) httpwwwsustainablenuclearorgPADspad0509tillhtml

[22] The Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP) httpwwwgnepenergygov

[23] Vic Reis Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP) in American Nuclear Society meetingReno NV American Nuclear Society (5 June 2006)httpwwwsustainablenuclearorgPADspad0606reispdf

[24] Doug Lightfoot Wallace Manheimer Dan Meneley Duane Pendergast and George S Stanford NuclearFission Fuel Is Inexhaustible in Climate Change Technology Conference (10ndash12 May 2006)Ottawa Ontario Canada

Page 14 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

[25] George S Stanford LWR Recycle Necessity or Impediment in ldquoGlobal 2003rdquo ANS WinterMeeting New Orleans American Nuclear Society (16ndash20 November 2003)httpwwwnationalcenterorgLWRStanfordpdf

[26] Senators Richard Lugar and Even Bayh A nuclear fuel bank advocated Chicago Tribune (22 October2006)

[27] Gerald E Marsh and George S Stanford Yucca Mountain The Right DecisionhttpwwwnationalcenterorgNPA415html (June 2002)

[28] Steve Kirsch httpskirschcompoliticsglobalwarmingifrhtm Summary blog

[29] Janne Wallenius Ateranvandning av langlivat avfall och sluten branslecykel mojlig i nya reaktortyper(Reuse of long-lived waste and a closed fuel cycle possible in new reactor types) Nucleus (April 2007)15ndash19

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 15

Appendix ndash Fission product yields from light-water reactors

See httpenwikipediaorgwikiFission_product_yield Sorted by half life

Number Isotope decay path Mass per

fractiondagger and half life GWe-year Comment

28336 131I802dminusrarr 131Xe 3150 kg Reduced by 195times10minus14 per year ndash 06 ng after one year

554478 Various lt 1y 5411 kglowast Decay to stable products

03912 106Ru3736dminusrarr 106Rh 3519 kg

asymp 035 134Cs2065yminusrarr 134Ba 3980 kg Created in the reactor from 133Cs by neutron capture

22713 147Pm262yminusrarr 147Sm 2833 kg

00297 125Sb276yminusrarr 125Te 315 g

lt00330 155Eu476yminusrarr 155Gd 434 g Mostly destroyed by neutron capture in the reactor

02717 85Kr1078yminusrarr 85Rb 1960 kg Currently released to the atmosphere

lt00003 113mCd141yminusrarr 113mIn 288 g Mostly destroyed by neutron capture in the reactor

57518 90Sr289yminusrarr 90Y 4393 kg Principal medium-term radiation and heat source319hminusrarr 90Zr

60899 137Cs3008yminusrarr 137Ba 7080 kg Principal medium-term radiation and heat source

lt04203 151Sm90yminusrarr 151Eu 5385 kg Mostly destroyed by neutron capture in the reactor

1e18yminusrarr 147Pm 151Eu is essentially stable262yminusrarr 147Sm1e11yminusrarr 143Nd

60507 99Tc211kyminusrarr 99Ru 5083 kg Dominant radiation source among fission products in the

range of 104 rarr 106 years candidate for transmutation

to 100Tc1546sminusrarr 100Ru

00236 126Sn230kyminusrarr 126Sb 252 g1235dminusrarr 126Te

00508 79Se295kyminusrarr 79Br 341 g

62856 93Zr153myminusrarr 93Nb 4960 kg

lt63333 135Cs23myminusrarr 135Ba 7255 kg

01629 107Pd65myminusrarr 107Ag 1479 kg

06576 129I157myminusrarr 129Xe 7198 kg Candidate for transmutation to 130I

1236hminusrarr 130Xe

asymp 644 133Cs stable 7268 kg A few percent converted by neutron capture to 134Cs

lt10888 149Sm stable 1377 kg

lt00065 157Gd stable 8659 gdaggerThe number fraction is the fraction of the atoms of fission products that are the specified isotope notthe mass fraction The mass is computed by multiplying the number fraction by the atomic mass andnormalizing the total to one tonne per GWe-yearlowastAssumes average mass number of 115

Thermal neutron transmutation of 90Sr 137Cs 126Sn 79Se 93Zr 135Cs and 107Pd is not practical due tolow neutron absorption cross section at the neutron temperature in LWRs

Page 16 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

The amount of an isotope at a particular time can be calculated by solving the differential equation

dN(t)

dt= k minus ln 2

τN(t)

where N(t) is the amount at time t in years k is the production rate per year and τ is the half-life in yearsThe solution (assuming N(0) = 0) is

N(t) =τk

ln 2

(1minus 2minustτ

)

From this when t gtgt τ the amount of each radioactive fission product is exponentially asymptotic toa constant approximately τk ln 2 decay compensates for production The amount of these materials isproportional to the power capacity not the total amount of energy produced If stable decay products arecontinuously removed the size of the repository is roughly constant

The following table shows asymptotic fractions and asymptotic masses per GWe (not GWe-year) of shortand medium half-life fission products The fraction is measured in terms of the annual number of fissionproduct atoms which is twice the number of actinide atoms consumed

Asymptotic number fraction and mass per GWe

Isotope Fraction Mass kg Isotope Fraction Mass kg

137Cs3008yminusrarr 137Ba 2643 3072lowast 90Sr

289yminusrarr 90Y2671dminusrarr 90Zr 2398 1831

Various τ lt 1y 7999 lt7806dagger 147Pm262yminusrarr 147Sm 85852 1071

85Kr1078yminusrarr 85Rb 4226 3048Dagger 134Cs

2065yminusrarr 134Ba 1043 1185lowast

106Ru3736dminusrarr 106Rh 05773 5192 155Eu

476yminusrarr 155Gd 02266 2981125Sb

276yminusrarr 125Te 01183 1254 131I802dminusrarr 131Xe 00898 0998

lowastAssumes isotope separation of 133Cs 134Cs 135Cs and 137Cs Total caesium

accumulates at 220 kgGWe-yrdaggerThe unclassified components are assumed to have an average mass number of

115 and to have a one year half life Since they are a mixture of products with

half lives under one year the true asymptotic fraction and mass are lessDagger 85Kr is currently vented to the atmosphere

The total mass of these products exponentially approaches an asymptote of less than 5844 kg per GWeor 9934 tonnes for a 17 TWe economy If their decay products are continuously removed storage isnot a problem If not reprocessed they are diluted by their decay products and therefore their specificactivity declines sufficiently that they are not radioactively dangerous after 200ndash300 years but the volumeis proportional to kt not k In 200 years of a 17 TWe economy the amount is less than 250000 tonnes lessthan 130000 cubic yards or less than 44 feet deep on a football field Separating the streams according tohalf life reduces the 200-year stream by 85

For long-lived isotopes ie t ltlt τ on a human time scale decay does not compensate for productionApproximating 2minustτ = exp(minust ln 2τ) asymp 1minus t ln 2τ the solution is N(t) asymp kt as expected The amount ofthese fission products is in proportion to the total amount of energy produced not the power capacity

Long-lived isotopes accumulate at the rate of about 182 kg per GWe-year or about 309 tonnes per year fora 17 TWe economy 99Tc and 129I can be destroyed by transmutation but the others amounting to about124 kg per GWe-year are impractical to destroy by transmutation If other isotopes of caesium (about 147kg per GWe-year) are not separated from 135Cs the total long-term disposal stream increases to 271 kg perGWe-year (but its specific activity decreases) If stored for about 30 years before disposal about 35 kg perGWe-year of 137Cs will decay leaving about 235 kg per GWe-year or about 400 tonnes per year for a 17TWe economy if the resulting stable 137Ba were removed Surely disposal of 400 tonnes per year of theseisotopes would not be a problem

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 17

Value of one tonne of used LWR fuelseparated and reduced to metal

Value Radioactivity

Value $tonne (MevBq-s) Half life Heat

Substance Mass (gr) $gr of waste α β γ (years) Wgr238U 944100 0143 135006 42 0496 447times109

236U 3971 0143 568 45 0494 234times107

235U 7974 0143 1140 44 0657 704234U 225 0143 32 48 00532 245times105

237Np 503 0143 72 47 00294 214times106

242Pu 454 0143 65 48 00449 376times105

241Pu 111 0143 16 49 01485 1435240Pu 2302 0143 329 52 05424 656times103

239Pu 5025 0143 719 52 00516 241times104

238Pu 95 0143 14 55 00435 8774 156241Am 1084 0143 155 55 00595 432243Am 85 0143 12 53 00747 737244Cm 4 0143 1 58 00428 1811 244

Actinides 965933 0143 13812996Zr 798 305 2434 Stable94Zr 741 305 2260 Stable93Zr 718 305 2190 0010 00305 161times106

92Zr 639 305 1948 Stable91Zr 590 305 1799 Stable90Zr 391 305 1192 Stable

Fuel cladding 3877 305 1182299Tc for alloys 771 1000 7710 00846 weak 2111times105

90Sr 391 200 782 01958 29 09388Sr 350 200 700 Stable137Cs 377 200 754 0187 0479 3017 042135Cs 300 200 600 00757 0662 23times106

133Cs 1125 200 2250 Stable

Heat sources 2543 200 5086

Br 22 100 22 Stable

Mo 3345 0257 860 Stable

Ru 2177 4578 99663 Stable

Ag 76 200 152 Stable

Cd 108 200 216 Stable

Ba 2311 0560 1295 Stable

Tb 26 3000 78 Stable

Dy 14 500 7 Stable

Rh 467 50000 233500 Stable87Rb 365 1178 4300 00817 481times1010

123Te 485 139 675 gt 92times 1016

138La 1215 180 2187 00329 144 102times1011

144Nd 3488 220 7673 190 229times1015

115In 26 1000 26 01532 441times1014

(cont)

Page 18 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

Value of one tonne of used LWR fuelseparated and reduced to metal (cont)

Value Radioactivity

Value $tonne (MevBq-s) Half life Heat

Substance Mass (gr) $gr of waste α β γ (years) Wgr142Ce 2355 028 662 15 gt 50times 1016

152Gd 142 548 778 215 14times1015

147Sm 200 200 400 225 106times1011

148Sm 167 200 334 19323 70times1015

149Sm 24 200 5 Stable151Sm 88 200 17 00196 00216 90152Sm + 154Sm 419 200 838 Stable107Pd 1371 8294 113710 00093 01476 65times106

90Y 456 1000 4560 09336 weak 64 hr152Eu 035 6000 21 00831 0122 134154Eu 1095 6000 6570 0221 0123 8601155Eu 016 6000 9 0047 0087 4753

Other solid 19297 4785583H 00034 294117 1000 00156 1254He 289 173 5 Stable85Kr 308 200 616 0687 0514 1072

Xe 5332 170 9050 Stable

Gases 5643 10671

Total fission 32131 1600 513937

products

Not counted 1936

Total 1000000 065 652066

httpbrcgove-mailsAugust10Commercial Value of 1 Metric ton of used fuelpdf with radioac-tivity data from httpwwwnndcbnlgovchart

Actinides can be recycled as fuel

Zirconium from fuel pin alloys and cladding and fission products can be recycled into new fuel pin claddingand alloys

Some radioactive elements produce sufficient heat to be usable as energy sources for example in radioisotopethermal generators for space applications These would not be isotopically separated 90Sr is 53 of thetotal strontium in fission products so heat production for all strontium is 049 Wgr 137Cs is 21 of thetotal caesium in fission products so heat production for all caesium is 0088 Wgr

Technetium is valuable for alloying with rhenium and has medical applications

Gases would be separated first then actinides then highly radioactive products This would reduce the costof separating and reducing the stable and less radioactive products

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 19

Appendix ndash Fuel and waste cycles

Actinides

IFRReprocessing

PrimaryProcessing

Disposaland sale

NonradioactiveLong half lifemostly 135Cs and 93Zr30 kg per GWe-yr665 kg per GWe-yearwith all cesium

ContinuousReprocessing

584 tonnes per GWe

Medium andshort half life

1 Tonneper GWe-year

99Tc 13 kg129I 177 kg

per GWe-yr

Usedfuel

Usedfuel

Sale

Nonradioactive

20 tonnes per GWe-yr

Enrichment

Sale

Disposaland sale

Enrichment LWR andLWR reprocessing

eventually phased out

LWRLWR

Reprocessing

Depleted uraniumstorage

Plutonium

8-10 tonnesper GWestartup

IFR

Enriched uranium

Fis

sion

pro

duct

s1

Ton

ne p

er G

We-

yr

MinedUranium

Acceleratortransmutation

Unused fuel and fissionproducts for transmutation

1 tonneper GWe-yr

Page 20 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

Appendix ndash Partitioning and Transmutation

Medium- and long-lived fission products could in principle be destroyed by transmuting them to isotopesthat are stable or have short half lives which decay to stable isotopes

The following tablea shows that 99Tc 129I 93Zr 107Pd and 135Cs can be transmuted much faster thantheir natural decay (ie T Jtrans ltlt T J12) The radiotoxicity of 107Pd and 135Cs is so small it is not worth

the bother to transmute them 93Zr can be recycled into fuel pin cladding or fuel alloying If 99Tc and129I were destroyed there could be very few remaining objections to nuclear power For 90Sr and 137CsT Jtrans gtgt T J12 so transmuting them is not interesting They are biologically active but can simply be

stored for about six half lives (180 years) after which the remaining amounts (069 and 11 kgGWe-yr) canbe discarded or sold If they are initially deposited in ldquodeep geologicalrdquo storage the containment durationrequirement for the repositories is significantly shorter by a factor of 1500 than for used LWR fuel For 79Seand 126Sn T Jtrans ltlt T J12 but T Jtrans is not sufficiently small to be interesting Although the radiotoxicity

per gram of 126Sn and 79Se is large they are produced in such small amounts that their total radiotoxicityper GWe-yr is comparable to that of the others

Isotope J decay Radiotoxicity σJ(nγ) (barns) T Jtrans (years) Mass per Transmuted

mode and T J12 Svg SvGWe-yr Thermal Fast Thermal Fast GWe-yr decay mode

90Sr289yminusrarr 90Y 1411k 1664M 014 001 1600 2200 1179 kg 91Sr

963hminusrarr 91Y137Cs

3008yminusrarr 137Ba 4187k 1152M 002 001 11000 2200 2752 kg 138Cs3341mminusrarr 138Ba

99Tc211kyminusrarr 99Ru 04 8708 43 02 51 110 2177 kg 100Tc

1546sminusrarr 100Ru126Sn

230kyminusrarr 126Sb 4936 4019 005 0005 4400 4400 0814 kg 127Sn21hminusrarr 127Sb

79Se295kyminusrarr 79Br 7478 1271 01 003 2200 7300 0170 kg 80Se is stable

93Zr153myminusrarr 93Nb 0102 2097 028 003 790 730 2056 kg 94Zr is stable

135Cs23myminusrarr 135Ba 0085 1009 13 007 170 310 1187 kg 136Cs

1304dminusrarr 136Ba107Pd

65myminusrarr 107Ag 00007 8309 03 05 730 44 6922 kg 108Pd is stable129I

157myminusrarr 129Xe 0718 4921 43 014 51 160 8853 kg 130I1236hminusrarr 130Xe

T Jtrans is the transmutation half-time for isotope J

Amounts and radioactivity from ORIGEN 22 Radiotoxicity dose factors from ICRP publication 119

This graph from the Swedish Radiation Safety Authorityb[29]

0001

001

01

1

10

100Radiotoxic inventory [Svg]

102 103 104 105 106101

TRU

FP

Uranium in nature

t[y]

shows that most of the radiotoxicity of used nuclear fuel arisesfrom the transuranics which IFR would consume and thatthe radiotoxicity of fission products is below the radiotoxic-ity of uranium ore within 200-300 years Transmuting 99Tcand 129I would reduce the long-term tail of the fission productradiotoxicity from 300 years onward by 60 The ordinateis radiotoxicity per gram of the original fission products notthe remaining fission products at the time specified by the ab-scissa Fission products are stored together stable ones arenot continuously separated from radioactive ones

aData from httpusersictpit˜pub_offlectureslns005Number_2Slessarev_1pdfbhttpwwwstralsakerhetsmyndighetenseGlobalPublikationerTidskriftNucleus2007Nucleus-4-2007pdf

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 21

Appendix ndash Worldwide limitations of alternative energy sources

Details in httpwwwphysicsucsdedu~tmurphyphys239shu_energypdf by Dr Frank Shu

Solar photovoltaic

Solar photovoltaic could in principle supply 15 TWe enough to power the Earthrsquos entire current energyeconomy using about 02 of the land area of the Earth below 60 latitude

Wind

Land-based wind cannot supply more than about 18 TWe or about 12 of the current energy economy

Ocean currents

The Kuroshio current which flows northward in the western Pacific past Taiwan and Japan has a powerof about 100 GW Assuming 50 efficiency of extraction allows about 50 GWe to be extracted The gulfstream flows twice as fast producing eight times as much power allowing about 400 GWe to be extractedExtracting significant power from ocean currents anywhere in the world would have profound effects onclimate

Coastal ocean waves

Assuming 50 efficiency of energy extraction ocean waves impinging on all the shorelines of the Earth couldprovide about 024 TWe or about 16 of the current energy economy

Geothermal

Geothermal sources cannot provide more than about 04 TWe or about 27 of the current energy economy

Tides

Energy extractable from tidal sources amounts to about 3 GWe worldwide or about 002 of the currentenergy economy It is only economically feasible in bays such as the Bay of Fundy which concentrate tidesto heights of as much as 5 meters Damming such bays has effects on the resonant frequency of nearby baysand estuaries profoundly altering currents and tides in nearby areas

Hydroelectric

The Earthrsquos land area is 148times 1012 m2 Average rainfall is 12 meters per year Water density is 103 kgm3

Total rainfall is thus about 18times 1017 kg Dropping 100 meters releases 18times 1017 kgtimes 98 ms2 times 100 m =

176times 1020 joule Spread out over a year 315times 107 s gives 56 TW Assuming 90 efficiency yields 5 TWeThe total available is less perhaps 35 TWe if polar regions are excluded Hydroelectric installations observeabout 30 capacity factor yielding total worldwide availability of about 1 TWe-yryr or about 67 of thecurrent energy economy

Total

Excluding solar photovoltaic and ocean currents alternative electricity sources could yield about 3443 TWeworldwide or about 23 of the current energy economy

Page 22 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

Wind

According to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory [6] the average total land use power density ofwind projects is 3 MWkm2 Utilities observe on average a 21 capacity factor for wind installations [3]giving an effective average wind project power density of 06 MWkm2 Capacity factors will surely decreasebecause high-potential sites are used first

To supply 17 TWe would require 33 of the nationrsquos land area (Alaska excluded) for wind farm projects

W Timothy Liu recognized world wide as an expert on wind says however that wind can never supplymore than 15 of the worldrsquos current total energy needs Professor Frank Shu of the University of Californiaat San Diego estimates worldwide potential is 18 TWea

Solar photovoltaic

The global mean average peak power output of solar panels as of 2014 is about 175 watts per square meter(Wm2) ndash more at the equator less at the poles more in sunny locales less in cloudy ones Assuming a15 capacity factor [3] leaves an effective power flux of 2625 Wm2 or 02625 GWe-yrkm2 per year So togenerate all 4064702 gigawatt hours produced in the US in 2007 would require asymp 17 700 square kilometersof cells To provide 1700 GWe-yr per year would require over 64800 square kilometers of cells plus perhaps10 more for spaces between the racks of collectors No problem Just put solar panels on the roofs ofhomes At 1000 ft2 (90 m2) per home thatrsquos only 721 million homes

By way of comparison the San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station occupied 84 acres (034 km2) andproduced 23 GWe-yr per year or 677 GWe-yrkm2 per year To produce 1700 GWe-yr per year wouldrequire 251 km2

Human activity already uses 25 of the biological output of the land area of the earth exclusive of Antarcticaand Greenland In parts of central and eastern Europe and India it is as high as 60 Converting moreland to solar power and biofuels would effectively increase this fraction thereby depriving the non-humanbiosphere the use of this land

Current photovoltaic cells have to produce energy for over four years to pay back the energy invested inproducing and deploying them As of 2013 photovoltaic and solar thermal sources contribute about 25 ofour total electric power Therefore we would need exponential increase of 25 per year for 17 years to bringthis to 100 of our electric power requirements or 23 years to provide all of our power requirements bywhich time photovoltaic cells would not have added one watt hour to our energy supply The current annualgrowth rate is 57 [3] at which rate we could build enough capacity to supply all of our power needs in 92years but even more time would be needed to repay the energy investment

Since the sun only shines during the day energy would have to be stored for use at night or transmittedfrom halfway around the world At some latitudes it doesnrsquot shine at all during winter so long-distancedistribution would be necessary

Storage is a significant problem to which insufficient attention has been given If all the batteries everproduced were fully charged at sundown (which is impossible because most have been recycled) they wouldnot supply current demand for one night An all-electric automobile fleet would use about 20 of energyoutput An electric automobile can operate for about five hours at full power If the entire electric automobilefleet were fully charged and connected to the grid at sundown it could supply 20 of demand for five hoursThen nobody could drive to work because the batteries would be discharged

Biofuels

The US currently gets 1 of road transportation fuels or about 9 GWth from biofuels using 10 ofcurrently-harvested cropland or about 13 of the nationrsquos land area

ahttpwwwphysicsucsdedu~tmurphyphys239shu_energypdf

Page 4 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

To supply all road rail pipeline ship airplane and heavy equipment fuels would require 1270 of currently-harvested cropland area or 130 of the nationrsquos total land area

Even providing only all ship airplane and heavy equipment fuels from biofuels would require 190 ofcurrently-harvested cropland area or about 18 of the nationrsquos total land area (Alaska included) Whatwould we eat

Currently-harvested cropland area is about 75 of total farmland area It is not possible to harvest 100of farmland Some must remain fallow each year to avoid depletion and some is pasture

Irrational hysteria about nuclear power regretted

Patrick Moore a cofounder of Greenpeace realizes that his view in the 1970rsquos that nuclear power and nuclearweapons are the same thing was naıve He now advocates nuclear power as ldquothe energy source that cansave our planet from another possible disaster catastrophic climate change rdquo ldquoNuclear energy is the onlylarge-scale cost-effective energy source that can reduce these emissions [of CO2] while continuing to satisfya growing demand for power rdquo For his honesty Greenpeace has kicked him outa on page 1

Hersquos not alone James Lovelock father of the Gaia theory Stewart Brand founder of the Whole EarthCatalog the late Bishop Hugh Montefiore founder and director of Friends of the Eartha James Hansenthe outspoken NASA climate scientist Mark Lynas an outspoken critic of nuclear power before learning ofIFR and many other former critics of nuclear power are now nuclear power advocates

Safety of nuclear power in OECD countries

According to the Paul Scherrer Institute Nuclear Energy and Safety Research Divisionbc nobody has diedin any OECD or EU-27 country as a result of the operation of a civilian nuclear electric power generator

Impressive as is the current perfect safety record IFR is a more modern design that incorporates additionalsafety features In particular above the designed operating temperature it has a negative temperaturecoefficient meaning that the hotter the reaction gets the slower it goes ultimately settling down at anequilibrium temperature far below the ldquomeltdownrdquo temperature This depends upon immutable laws ofphysics not upon skill of operators computers pumps or indeed on any moving parts at all other thanthermal expansion of the reactor core

Seven years after the Three Mile Island ac-

800

1000

1200

1400

-100 0 100 200 300 400 500

Time after loss of power (seconds)

Tem

per

atu

re (

oF

)

Maximum fuel claddingtemperature

Figure 1 Core temperature after loss of cooling

cident the prototype of IFR called EBR-IIwas compromised in the same way that theThree Mile Island reactor was compromised(loss of coolant flow) It shut down with-out any damage to the reactor harm to theoperators or release of radioactive materi-als A few hours earlier it had been com-promised in the other known way (loss ofheat sink) Again it shut down gracefully[3] One month later the Chernobyl reactorwas compromised in the second way Ac-cording to Pete Planchon [7] who ran thetests for an invited international audienceldquoBack in 1986 we actually gave a small [20MWe] prototype advanced fast reactor a couple of chances to melt down It politely refused both timesrdquo

aFriends of the Earth forced Bishop Montefiore to resign after he published a pro-nuclear article in a church magazinebhttpswwwpsichneschttpswwwpsichtaRiskENSECURE_Deliverable_D5_7_2_Severe_Accident_Riskspdf page 43

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 5

Three Mile Island

Notwithstanding the hysteria of Jack Lemmon Jane Fonda and Michael Douglas in the movie ldquoThe ChinaSyndromerdquo nobody that is NOBODY was injured by the Three Mile Island accident It was a brilliantsuccess story of careful designa which has since been improved by lessons learned Insurers paid out only$70 million The owners spent a further $973 million on cleanup Nobody has died of a radiation-relatedaccident in the history of the US civilian nuclear electric power reactor programf or civilian nuclear electricpower reactor programs in any OECD or EU-27 country

Chernobyl

Chernobyl was an accident waiting to happen The reactor had an inadequate containment structure it wasan inherently unsafe designb (nobody plans to build another 3 GWth reactor out of charcoal and surround itwith a tin-foil containment shed) and the operators literally (but unintentionally) blew it up by bypassingsafety interlocks and already-inadequate shutdown mechanisms ironically in a rush to get a safety checkdone The 173-page report of the United Nations Scientific Committee for the Effects of Atomic Radiation(UNSCEAR)cd[8] concludes that

bull 134 plant workers and emergency workers suffered Acute Radiation Syndrome (ARS) from high dosesof radiation Two workers were killed by falling debris One died from coronary thrombosis

bull In the first few months after the accident 28 ARS victims died

bull Although another 19 ARS sufferers had died by 2006 those deaths had different causes not usuallyassociated with radiation exposure

bull Skin injuries and cataracts were among the most common consequences in ARS survivors

bull Although several hundred thousand people as well as the emergency workers were involved in recoveryoperations there is no consistent evidence of health effects that can be attributed to radiation exposureapart from indications of increased incidence of leukemia and of cataracts among those who receivedhigher doses

bull 6000 cases of thyroid cancer were reported between 1991 and 2005 in affected areas It is not possibleto state scientifically that radiation caused a particular cancer in a particular individual By 2005only fifteen of those cases had been fatal

bull Radiation doses to the general public in the three most affected countries (Ukraine Belarus Russia)were relatively low and most residents ldquoneed not live in fear of serious health consequencesrdquo In themost affected areas the average additional dose over the period 1986-2005 is approximately equivalentto that of one computed tomography scan

bull There is no ongoing increased risk of solid tumors or blood cancers

The World Nuclear Association attributes 30 deaths to the accidente ldquoTragic as those deaths were theypale in comparison to the more than 5000 coal-mining deaths worldwide every yearrdquo says Mooref

ahttpwwwworld-nuclearorginfoinf36htmlbThe Soviet RBMK reactor design is based upon the design of a military reactor which was in turn based upon de-

sign documents for the US Hanford reactors stolen from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory before the Hanford reactorswere built optimized for production of plutonium for weapons purposes scaled up for civilian nuclear power production(httpwwwworld-nuclearorginfoinf31html)

chttpwwwunscearorgunscearenchernobylhtmldhttpwwwunisunviennaorgunisenpressrels2011unisinf398htmlehttpwwwworld-nuclearorginfoSafety-and-SecuritySafety-of-PlantsChernobyl-Accident ndash see Appendix 1

Sequence of eventsfhttpwwwwashingtonpostcomwp-dyncontentarticle20060414AR2006041401209html

Page 6 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

More to the point Chernobyl was a steam explosion followed by a hydrogen explosiona followed by agraphite fire Although a test reactor at Idaho National Laboratory was intentionally destroyed by promptcriticalityb it is impossible for a municipal nuclear reactor licensed in an OECD or EU-27 country to generatea nuclear explosion IFR being liquid-metal cooled has no water in the core and is not graphite moderatedA steam explosion a hydrogen explosion or a graphite fire is impossible in the core of an IFR

Fukushima

Despite widespread hysteria a reportc from the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of AtomicRadiation (UNSCEAR) presented to the UN General Assembly in October 2013 [9] shows that nobody waskilled injured or made ill by the destruction of the reactors at Fukushima by the earthquake and tsunamiand nobody will be

From Page 9 section 2 ldquoDose Assessmentrdquo para 29 ldquoThe Japanese people receive an effective dose of radiationfrom naturally occurring sources of on average about 21 millisieverts (mSv) annually and a total of about170 mSv over their lifetimesrdquo

From page 11 section 3 ldquoHealth Implicationsrdquo para 38 ldquoNo radiation-related deaths or acute diseases have beenobserved among the workers and general public exposed to radiation from the accidentrdquo

para 40 ldquoFor adults in Fukushima Prefecture the Committee estimates [the increase in] average lifetime effectivedoses to be of the order of 10 mSv or less a discernible increase in cancer incidence in this populationthat could be attributed to radiation exposure from the accident is not expectedrdquo

For comparison the dose from an abdominal and pelvic CT scan repeated with and without contrast wouldbe about 30 mSv or about ten yearsrsquo worth of average normal background radiation This increases lifetimecancer risk from 1 in 5 to 1005 in 5 Yearly dose on the Tibetan plateau is 13-20 mSv In areas of monazitedeposits in Brazil and India doses exceed 36 mSvyear

Nuclear power reactor waste

Foremost among the benefits of IFR beyond enhanced inherent safety the amount of waste is a factor of 20less than the amount produced by LWRs Most IFR waste is dangerously radioactive for five years and theremainder for a few hundred years instead of a few hundred thousand years [1]

The 2000 tons of used fuel removed from US LWRs per year are currently considered waste but are actuallya valuable resource because only 5 of their energy content has been extracted

Used fuel has a density of about 11 gramscm3 or about 8 tonsyd3 As of 2006 total US commercial fueldischarges amounted to about 59160 tonnesd or about 7400 cubic yards of accumulated ldquowasterdquo This isalready enough for 8ndash10 Yucca Mountains If piled on a 3000 square yard football field it would be 74feet deep (but it would melt) The 100000000 tons of eternally-toxic solid wastee from operation of UScoal-fired power plants in 2006 alone would be about 74000 feet or about 14 miles deepf amounting to 740miles in fifty years

aSteam reacted with zirconium fuel pin cladding to produce hydrogenbNuclear fission produces two populations of neutrons those emitted within about ten nanoseconds (prompt neutrons) and

those emitted up to several seconds later (delayed neutrons) If critical neutron flux arises from prompt neutrons it is notpossible to control the reaction

chttpwwwunscearorgdocsGAreportsA-68-46_e_V1385727pdfdhttpwwweiadoegovcneafnuclearspent_fuelussnfdatahtml reports LWR waste of 42750 tonnes through 2002

httpwwweiadoegovemeuaertxtstb0902xls reports 631 GWe-yr nuclear production 2003ndash2009 and 16 TWe-yr from1957ndash2002 Assuming the same 26718 tonnesTWe-yr 1957ndash2002 rate for 2003ndash2009 gives 16860 additional tonnes

eAccording to httpwwwornlgovinfoornlreviewrev26-34textcolmainhtml there is 163 times more energy inthe waste from coal-fired power plants than in the coal that was burned 47 tonnes of uranium and 116 tonnes of thorium perGWe-yr about 0036 of a coal-fired power plantrsquos solid waste Power plants account for only 74 of coal combustion

fAccording to httpwwwtfhrcgovhnr20recyclewastecbabs1htm density is 10125ndash135 tonsyd3

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 7

In addition to the 5-used-fuel ldquowasterdquo there are about 900000 tons of depleted-uranium ldquowasterdquo left overfrom the enrichment process containing more than 90 of the energy in the uranium that was mined

The rate at which waste generates heat is a more important factor than its volume With transuranicspresent ndash as in what we currently call ldquowasterdquo ndash the long-term capacity of a repository is determined by theheat those transuranics will generate millennia hence With them removed the primary determining factorbecomes heat generated by 137Cs and 90Sr With transuranics removed but 137Cs and 90Sr remaining thecapacity of a repository is increased by a factor of about five compared to the current technology With only137Cs and 90Sr remaining the capacity is enormously increased [1]

A reactor (IFR or otherwise) produces about 1 tonne of fission products per GWe-year The current USLWR fleet produces about 90 GWe-year per year thereby generating about 90 tonnes of fission productsper year about 5 of the total ldquowasterdquo or about 300 milligrams per American Radioactive 137Cs and90Sr amount to about 39 kg per GWe-year Not all isotopes of caesium and strontium are radioactive andisotopic separation is costly so it makes more sense to consider total caesium and strontium fission productswhich amount to 92 kgGWe-year about 83 Tonnesyr or about 24 milligrams per American per year Ifall those fission products within the 59160 tonnes of ldquowasterdquo accumulated from 1957 until 2006 were spreadon a football field the pile would be about 044 inches deep A pile of all fission products including thosethat are nonradioactive or have very short half lives would be 48 inches deep (but it would melt)

If the current American supply of LWRs were replaced by IFRs the stream of ldquowasterdquo would be reduced from1818 to 90 tonnes per year and if left mixed instead of separated those 90 tonnes would be less radiotoxicthan mined uranium before 200ndash300 years instead of 300000 years as for LWR ldquowasterdquo

The nonradioactive short-lived and long-lived fission products could be separated Strontium and caesiumconstitute 9 of fission products 6 of fission products (99Tc and 129I) have very long half lives but canbe transmuted to short-lived isotopes (1546 seconds and 1236 hours) by neutron absorption within thereactor thereby effectively destroying them 93Zr another 2 of fission products can be recycled into fuelpin cladding or alloying (where it doesnrsquot matter that itrsquos radioactive and the radioactivity is low-energybeta ndash electron ndash emission anyway) The remaining 89 are less radiotoxic than mined uranium before five toten years The stream requiring long-term storage (strontium and caesium) would thereby be substantiallyreduced to about 92 kgGWe-yr The specific activity (heat generation per kilogram) of the remainderwould be reduced Other fission products (primarily 137Cs and 90Sr) could in principle be destroyed byneutron transmutation but it takes longer than their normal decay Even if they are simply stored howevertheir specific activity is so low that storage is not a significant problem At an average of $16 milliontonne(some much higher) the appreciable commercial value of many fission productsa reduces the storage problemeven further

If all current US electric power generating capacity were replaced with IFR the stream of fission productswould amount to 450 tonnes per year of which 41 tonnes require long-term custody This is less than onequarter the quantity of 5-used fuel that is generated by the LWRs that supply about 20 of our presentelectric power needs

A 17 TWe energy economy powered by IFRs would produce 1700 tonnes of fission products per year orabout 65 less than the 1818 tonnes of 5-used fuel removed from the LWRs that currently supply onlyabout 53 of our energy needs Long-lived fission products (mostly 93Zr and 135Cs) amount to about 131kg per GWe-year or 223 tonnes (730 milligrams per American) altogether per year 93Zr could be recycledinto fuel-pins so it neednrsquot be stored 93Zr and 135Cs would occupy about 121 yd3 or about 14 inch ifspread on a football field They have such low specific activity that they are not considered to be dangerousIf 133Cs (stable) 134Cs (2065y) and 137Cs (3008y) are not removed the amount is 269 yd3 per year

Fission products with half-lives less than thirty years are less radiotoxic than mined natural uranium before200ndash300 years so custody is simple for them Production and radioactive decay offset each other expo-nentially approaching an asymptote of about 584 tonnes of radioactive material per GWe (not GWe-year)If stable decay products are continuously removed a constant capacity is needed for radioactive materialstorage preferably co-located with each IFR

That is storage and disposal are not problems and therefore IFR waste is not a problem

ahttpbrcgove-mailsAugust10Commercial Value of 1 Metric ton of used fuelpdf

Page 8 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

Refer to the appendices for more details

Availability of nuclear fuel

For LWRs the concentration of 235U the fissile isotope is typically enriched from the natural 071 toabout 42 leaving behind a supply of uranium depleted in 235U that is about 57 times the amount ofldquoreactor graderdquo enriched uranium Combining this and the 4-5 fuel efficiency of LWR we extract lessthan 06 of the energy in mined uranium In a reactor some of the 238U is transmuted into 239Pu andother transuranics which are directly usable as IFR fuel In an IFR energy economy once started thosetransuranics rather than 235U provide much of the fission energy and the neutrons needed to transmute 238Uinto more transuranics That is (a) enrichment is not necessary and (b) the currently left-behind depleteduranium is valuable as future fuel

Using a rule of thumb that fissioning 09 kg of actinides yields 1 GWth-day of energy and generating 1 GWerequires 3 GWth to be expended 1 GWe-yr requires 36525 times 3 times 09 = 981 kg asymp 1 tonne of actinides tobe converted to fission products If mined uranium were used to 100 capacity instead of 06 total USpower demand of about 1700 GWe would require about 1700 tonnes of new uranium per year

IFRs could use the current US supply of LWR ldquowasterdquo a substance of which we are desperately eager tobe rid as fuel If nothing is done other than to build an IFR to replace each LWR as it reaches the endof its useful lifea about 50 tonnes of start-up fuel per IFR plus one tonne per year of make-up uraniumthereafterb would be needed That is assuming there are 900000 tonnes of LWR ldquowasterdquo on hand (usedfuel plus depleted uranium) there is enough fuel from that alone for about 10000 years without miningmilling refining or enriching any new uranium

If all current US electric generating capacity were replaced with IFRs about 450 tonnes of makeup fuelwould be needed per year that is there is enough fuel for about 2000 years If the entire energy economywere powered by IFR about 1700 tonnes per year would be needed that is there is enough fuel from currentLWR ldquowasterdquo alone for almost 530 years Is it really ldquowasterdquo

Uranium is four times more common than tin and ten times more common than silver Currently knownreserves of uranium in ore of current commercial grade contain about five million tonnes of the metalc Thatis enough for about 4300 years if used in 90 GWe capacity of US LWRs or about 4800 years if all 1700GWe US power demand were supplied by IFRs Current total worldwide energy demand is about fourtimes US energy demand so if the entire world were to be powered by IFRs at current demand there isenough uranium counting only known reserves profitably recoverable at $138kgU for about 1200 years

The picture isnrsquot so bleak however because the efficiency of use of uranium by IFRs means the fuel costper kWh would be the same as for LWRs at $1380006 asymp $23000kgU or about 0001centkWh This makesit economically feasible to use lower grade ores or more importantly to extract uranium from seawaterwhere there is estimated to be about 45 billion tonnes this is enough for more than a million years ofcurrent worldwide energy demand Even this however is a substantial under-estimate because uraniumis continuously flowing into the oceans from rivers That is uranium alone is an essentially inexhaustibleresource Thorium which could in principle serve as fertile future fuel is four times more common thanuranium so even without river inflow all current worldwide power needs could be supplied for about fivemillion years using nuclear fission Nuclear fission is an effectively inexhaustible energy resource

Weapons proliferation

The ldquoIntegralrdquo in IFR means that the entire system including fuel reprocessing is integrated in one facilityActinides go into an IFR none come out except to start a new IFR Opportunities for theft of partly-used

aWe wouldnrsquot replace LWRs prematurely because the IFR system functions symbiotically with the current fuel cyclebIFR fuel has to be asymp 20 fissile (mainly PU-239) and 80 fertile (U-238) Once an IFR has been loaded it can generate its

own fissile material from fertile material so all it would need to keep running is one tonne of unenriched uranium per GWe-yearc httpwwwworld-nuclearorginfoinf75html

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 9

fuel would be reduced because it would not be transported to a separate facility for processing

Unlike LWRs an IFR power economy once started does not need its uranium fuel to be enriched in 235UThis means that it is not necessary to have any facility to enrich uranium for other than military purposesA reactor owner does need however either ironclad international guarantees of assured fuel supply or theability to reprocess partly used fuel

The ability to reprocess fuel implies the presence of a cadre of professionals who are familiar with most of thetechniques for making weapons-grade materials The mixture of actinides taken out of IFR for reprocessingpresents more difficult radiation thermal chemical and metallurgical problems to would-be weaponeersthan those taken from LWR It is unsuitable for direct use in weapons primarily because of the presenceof 243Am 241Pu and non-fissionable 238Pu 240Pu and 242Pu but is admirably suited as IFR fuel 241Puemits 50 times more heat 5000 times more neutrons and 100 times more gamma radiation than 239PuThis could damage a weapon or cause predetonation and makes maintenance of fine mechanical tolerancesdifficult Expensive remote assembly is mandatory Separating 239Pu from nearby isotopes is more difficultthan separating 238U from 235U first because the mass difference is smaller and second because synthesizingthe gaseous compound PuF6 needed for centrifugal or gas diffusion isotope separation is difficult Eventhough the problem of extracting weapons-grade materials from LWR is easier than for IFR nobody hasdone so Every nuclear weapons program has depended upon enriched uranium or upon purpose-builtreactors optimized to produce 239Pu and these have been nation-scale projects not backyard garage-scaleprojects that a terrorist cell might successfully undertake The simple conclusion is that used LWR fuel isjust about the most difficult material from which to produce nuclear weapons [3] A Lawrence LivermoreNational Laboratory study [10] concluded that spent IFR fuel cannot be used to make a nuclear weaponwithout significant further processing

Even if the difficulties of producing weapons from used reactor fuel could be overcome IFR presents nonew problems of weapons proliferation because reprocessing and enrichment are not substantially differentfrom the standpoint of international oversight No countryrsquos desire or ability to produce nuclear weaponshas ever been affected by any other countryrsquos decision to reprocess or not to reprocess used municipalreactor fuel Every advanced industrial country could in principle produce nuclear weapons independentlyof any other countryrsquos decision to reprocess or not to reprocess used municipal reactor fuel If a countrycannot be trusted with this technology do not sell reactors or fuel reprocessing systems to them The samelong-distance transmission that would be required for solar power would serve their needs

Costs

GE estimates their version of IFR known as S-PRISMa can be built for about $15-2W or $22W after a90 capacity factor is incorporated [11] A GEHitachi consortium estimates they could produce IFR for$12-14W [3] The Diablo Canyon generating station produces electricity for 5cent per kWh The Palo Verdestation was constructed for $179W and produces electricity for 43cent per kWh

T Boone Pickens proposed to build a 4 GWe wind farm The estimated cost ballooned to $3W or $15Wafter incorporating a 21 capacity factor [3] The project was abandoned The Sacramento Municipal UtilityDistrict (SMUD) reports a 15 capacity factor for solar photovoltaic ldquoNo system with capacity factors thislow is a viable energy producing systemrdquo [11] After incorporating these capacity factors the effectiveconstruction costs increase to $4000-$8500kWe for wind and $16000-$60000kWe for solar SMUDestimates a 69-year financial payback for solar photovoltaicb Because wind and solar are diffuse sources$11-13 trillion would be needed for grid upgrades [3] adding another $750kWe to the construction costBecause they are diffuse and erratic sources additional costs for storage would be necessary

In 2017 the lowest-price solar cells cost $180 per peak watt With 15 capacity factor this is $12 peraverage watt Amortized over 25 years at 5 and deducting the four-plus year energy payback capital costalone is 117cent per kWh (181cent at 10) The GVEA 40 battery in Fairbanks Alaska is the largest utility-scale

aSuper Power Reactor Inherently Safe ModularbLifetime is only 30ndash40 years See httpwwwostigovbridgeservletspurl755637-oDWEJRwebviewable755637pdf

or httpwwwglobalspeccomLearnMoreOptics_Optical_ComponentsOptoelectronicsPhotovoltaic_Cells

Page 10 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

storage battery It weighs 1200 tonnes provides 10 MWh storage and cost $350Wh Amortized over fiveyears this is 57centkWha To have constant output the panel capacity needs to be twice the demand ndash halffor immediate use and half to charge batteries so the capital cost for cells plus storage is 291cent per kWhThis does not include mounting transportation operation maintenance land recycling or grid upgradesThe equation used to calculate amortized cost is

A(n) = rA(nminus 1)minus p

where A(0) is the initial cost per watt and A(n) is the amount remaining to be paid after n payments ofp dollars at an interest rate of 100(r minus 1) per payment period Solving this equation for A(n) settingA(n) = 0 and solving for p gives

p = A(0) rnr minus 1

rn minus 1

The cost per watt hour is pH where H is hours per payment period If the payment period is one yearand power is provided continuously H is 8766 (36525times24) Because solar panels have a 45 year energypayback period the final value needs to be multiplied by n(nminus 45) where n is years

The following table compares construction costs for eight renewable sources [3] Costs are per peak kWenot average kWe The capacity factor is not included

Cost Cost Cost CostSource $kWe Source $kWe Source $kWe Source $kWeWind (onshore) 800 Wind (offshore) 1700 Hydro 2000 Geothermal 2100Biomass 2300 Solar (thermal) 2400 Tidal 2800 Solar (PV) 5900

The following table compares operating and construction costs for six electric power technologies [3] [12][13] External grid upgrade and storage costs are not included Since 1981 nuclear power utilities havebeen paying 01centkWh into the Federal Nuclear Waste Fund so LWR decommissioning and ldquowasterdquo handlingcosts are included as internal costs

Operating Average Effective FederalCost Construction Capacity Construction Life Delivered Subsidy

Fuel centkWh Cost $kWe Factor Cost $kWedagger (yrs) centkWhDagger centkWhlowast

LWR Nuclear 49 1000-2000 gt 90 1111-2222 50 515ndash541 0210Coal 60-63 1000-1500 gt 90 1111-1667 50 625ndash668 0056Hydro 40-80 2000 asymp 33 6000 100 469ndash869 0136Gas 76-92 400-800 gt 90 444-888 30 777ndash954 0060Wind 49-100 1000-2000 asymp 21 4762-9524 20 762ndash1543 3533Solar PV 150-300 6000-9000 asymp 15 40000-60000 30 3021ndash5282 23131daggerConstruction cost capacity factorDaggerOperating cost + construction cost ( capacity factor times lifetime ) Amortization not includedlowasthttpwwweiagovanalysisrequestssubsidy tables ES4 and ES5 for 2013

Particulate emissions alone from coal-fired power plants cost $165 billion [3] and cause 30100 prematuredeaths 603000 asthma attacks and 5130000 lost work days per year in the United States alone [14]

Nuclear power has the lowest delivered costs in ten of twelve countries studied [15] (India China and Russiawere not included) The two that did not have the lowest costs were the United States and Korea Thereport did not address the significant costs in the United States of protracted litigation and continuouslyrevised regulations and slow licensing of individual reactors It would be helpful if the Nuclear RegulatoryCommission were to adopt the French system of licensing reactor designs instead of individual reactors IFRs

aProf Nate Lewis in a private seminar Where will we get our energy at Caltech Jet Propulsion Laboratory estimated40-50centkWh

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 11

would be less expensive to build and operate than current technology because they are simpler standardizeddesigns instead of complicated one-off designs [3] The system is further substantially simplified because thecoolant operates at atmospheric pressure instead of 160 atmospheres and it absorbs essentially all neutronsthat escape the core so special alloys and over-designing are not needed to compensate for containmentvessel embrittlement caused by neutron damage and there are much fewer radioactive structural neutronactivation products

When external costs are included nuclear costs are estimated [16] to be about one tenth as much as coalCO2 emissions are explicitly excluded from costs of fossil-fuel systems Nuclear utilities have been paying01centkWh into the Federal Waste Disposal Fund since 1981 for used nuclear fuel disposal and reactor decom-missioning these costs are included as internal costs for LWR The radiological cost of mining is includedbut for IFR that would be irrelevant since there is already enough uranium above ground for several cen-turies For IFR fuel would be cheaper than free for a few hundred years because it would consume the LWRldquowasterdquo of which we are desperately eager to be rid and disposal of IFR waste would be far less expensivethan disposal of 5-used LWR fuel so IFR must have much lower than one tenth the operating cost of coal

The United States has already invested $8 Billion in the Yucca Mountain repository It is estimated to cost$436 Billion to complete [3] and current waste would require about 8-10 times more capacity than YuccaMountain would have at completion IFR would make Yucca Mountain irrelevant and is even more importantnow that the Obama administration has canceled Yucca Mountain Why is the Nevada Congressionaldelegation not insisting that the IFR demonstration project be restarted

Tony Blairrsquos government commissioned a study by Sir Nicholas Stern former vice president and chiefeconomist for the World Bank He recommended committing 1 of global GDP to reduce CO2 emissions to25-70 below current levels by mid century and that increased extreme weather costs alone could reach1 of GDP [3] For the United States that amount of todayrsquos GDP would be $290 billion per year In thenext section we estimate that producing an energy economy entirely powered by IFR could be accomplishedin fewer than 65 years Spending $290 billion per year on CO2 remediation during that interval would cost$188 trillion (in todayrsquos dollars) At $22BGWe for IFR 17 TWe would cost $374 trilliona ndash 20 asmuch ndash and would essentially eliminate CO2 emissions not reduce them by 25-70

What can be done

As admirable as they are conservation biofuels wind geothermal tides waves ocean currents and hydroalone or together cannot power any economy nor can they destroy the 59160 tonnes of ldquowasterdquo from thefirst 53 years of US LWR operations and more accumulated since 2006 Wind and solar are much moreexpensive than IFR There are no good hydro sites that have been exploited A 2017 study [17] concludedthat a 100 renewable-electricity system might not be physically feasible let alone economically viableCoal is terrible (and more expensive as well) Natural gas is more benign than coal but still produces CO2Oil produces CO2 and importing it and protecting access to overseas sources is expensive in both blood andnational treasure Solar is much more expensive than IFR and wouldnrsquot destroy waste That leaves IFR asthe only alternative that is both sufficient and economically viable

There are no serious plans for electric airplanes ships or heavy construction or farm equipment so someliquid hydrocarbon fuels will be needed for the foreseeable future Hydrogen is at present a nonstarterbecause of the storage problem Fortunately we know how to make hydrocarbon fuels from energy + water+ CO2b Using such fuels or hydrogen if the storage problem is solved (or maybe boron [3]) it is possibletherefore to convert the entire US energy economy to electricity provided mostly by IFR with hydrowind solar geothermal or biofuels where appropriate

The current US economy could be powered by about 17 TWe Each 1 GWe reactor needs 8ndash10 tonnesof startup fissile material which would at first largely be actinides from used LWR fuel and plutoniumand enriched uranium from decommissioned weapons The current US inventory of fissionable actinides is

aGEHitachi estimates $21-24 trillion ndash 11-13 of $188 trillionbThe Fischer-Tropsch process

Page 12 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

about 900 tonnes plus about 225 tonnes of weapons-grade 235Ua or enough to start up only about 110-140GWe of capacity using IFR With breeding that IFR fleet could have a sustained growth rate of 5 per yearor maybe more After startup the deployment rate would gradually accelerate from 5ndash7 per year helpedalong by actinides from still-operating LWRs and reach the desired 17 TWe goal within about 40ndash50 yearsor sooner to the extent renewable sources are appropriate or if uranium enrichment is continued

A single complete and permanent solution to all energy pollution nuclear waste and CO2 emission problemsis within our grasp All obstacles to that solution are political abetted and perpetuated by ignoranceintentional falsehoods irrational hysteria and opportunistic demagoguery not scientific technological orengineering problems Competition for energy resources is frequently blamed for wars IFR would eliminatethat excuse

Fast breeder reactors with fuel recycling will be developed There is no credible alternative There is an 800MWe reactor in service in Russiab and a 1200 MWe reactor is under development China has contractedto buy a BN-800 reactor from Russia South Korea has announced a 400 GWe fast-neutron reactor will beavailable for sale in 2020 India is building a prototype fast-neutron reactor to exploit their vast reservesof thorium China and Japan are making progress on their own designs American experts are retiring ordying far faster then younger ones are being prepared The United States will soon be a third-world countryin energy technology

Should the United States spend $188 trillion on CO2 reduction and mitigation $1075 trillion on coal sootdamage $68ndash102 trillion on solar cells $25 trillion on wind turbines $475 trillion on grid upgrades ndash about$130minus170 trillion altogether (and none of those would destroy one gram of nuclear waste) and suffer 2million unnecessary deaths due to coal emissions or spend $24 trillion on IFR (and render all nuclear wasteharmless)

For me the answer is obvious There is no time to waste We really ought to get started

Acknowledgment

This work benefited substantially from constructive criticism by the late Dr George S Stanford

Further reading

[1] Charles E Till and Yoon Il Chang Plentiful energy (2011) ISBN 978-1466384606

[2] William H Hannum Gerald E Marsh and George S Stanford Smarter use of nuclear waste ScientificAmerican (December 2005)httpswwwscientificamericancomarticlesmarter-use-of-nuclear-waste

[3] Tom Blees Prescription For The Planet The painless remedy for our energy and environmental crises(2008) ISBN 1-4196-5582-5 Impressive technical content plus off-putting gratuitous political insultsand nutty ideas about UN control of world energy

[4] D C Wade and Y I Chang The Integral Fast Reactor Physics of operation and safety NuclearScience and Engineering 100 4 (December 1988) 507ndash524

[5] Matthew D Eisaman Keshav Parajuly Alexander Tuganov Craig Eldershaw Noring Chang andKarl A Littau CO2 extraction from seawater using bipolar membrane electrodialysis Energy amp En-vironmental Science 5 6 (May 2012)

[6] National Renewable Energy Laboratory Land-use requirements of modern wind power plants in theUnited States httpwwwnrelgovdocsfy09osti45834pdf (2009)

a141 of LWR waste (httpwwwwhatisnuclearcomarticleswastehtmlcomposition) plus military inventory of 45tonnes 239Pu and 225 tonnes 235U (httpdsp-psdpwgscgccaCollection-RLoPBdPBPbp461-ehtm)

bhttpsenwikipediaorgwikiBN-800_reactor

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 13

[7] David Baurac Passively safe reactors rely on nature to keep them coolhttpwwwneanlgovAbouthnlogos-winter02-psrshtml (Winter 2002)

[8] United Nations Scientific Committee for the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) Scientific AnnexD Health effects due to radiation from the Chernobyl accident in Sources and Effects of IonizingRadiation 2008 Report to the General Assembly Volume II ISBN-13 978-92-1-142280-1 (2011)

[9] United Nations Scientific Committee for the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) Chapter IIIScientific Findings Part A Levels and effects of radiation exposure due to the nuclear accident afterthe great east-Japan earthquake and tsunami in Sources and Effects of Ionizing Radiation 2013 Reportto the General Assembly Volume I ISBN 978-92-1-142291-7 e-ISBN 978-92-1-056501-1 (2014)

[10] D L Goldman Some Implications of Using IFR High-Transuranic Plutonium in a Prolifer-ant Nuclear Weapon Program Technical Report CONDU-94-0199 Lawrence Livermore NationalLaboratory (March 1994)

[11] P E Donald E Lutz PGampE solar plants in the desert Truth about energy (2007)

[12] Nuclear Energy Agency Projected costs of generating electricityhttpwwwieaorgtextbasenppdffree2005ElecCostPDF (2005)

[13] Nuclear Energy Agency Projected costs of generating electricityhttpwwwieaorgTextbasenpsumElecCost2010SUMpdf (2010)

[14] Mark Fischetti The human cost of energy Scientific American (September 2011)

[15] Uranium Information Center (UIC) The Economics of Nuclear Power Technical report AustralianUranium Association Melbourne (March 2008)

[16] European Commission Research team of the ExternE project serieshttpwwwexterneinfoteamhtml (2007)

[17] B W Heard B W Brook T M L Wigley and C J A Bradshaw Burden of proof A comprehensivereview of the feasibility of 100 renewable-electricity systems Renewable and Sustainable EnergyReviews 76 (2017) 1122ndash1133

[18] William H Hannum The technology of the integral fast reactor and its associated fuel cycle Progressin Nuclear Energy 31 1ndash2 (1997)

[19] George S Stanford Integral fast reactors Source of safe abundant non-polluting powerhttpwwwnationalcenterorgNPA378html

[20] Gerald E Marsh and George S Stanford Bombs reprocessing and reactor grade plutonium Forumon Physics amp Society of the American Physical Society Newsletter 35 2 (April 2006)httphttpwwwthesciencecouncilcomindexphpgeorge-stanford

[21] Charles Till Plentiful energy and the IFR story The Republic News and Issues Magazine (June-September 2005) httpwwwsustainablenuclearorgPADspad0509tillhtml

[22] The Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP) httpwwwgnepenergygov

[23] Vic Reis Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP) in American Nuclear Society meetingReno NV American Nuclear Society (5 June 2006)httpwwwsustainablenuclearorgPADspad0606reispdf

[24] Doug Lightfoot Wallace Manheimer Dan Meneley Duane Pendergast and George S Stanford NuclearFission Fuel Is Inexhaustible in Climate Change Technology Conference (10ndash12 May 2006)Ottawa Ontario Canada

Page 14 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

[25] George S Stanford LWR Recycle Necessity or Impediment in ldquoGlobal 2003rdquo ANS WinterMeeting New Orleans American Nuclear Society (16ndash20 November 2003)httpwwwnationalcenterorgLWRStanfordpdf

[26] Senators Richard Lugar and Even Bayh A nuclear fuel bank advocated Chicago Tribune (22 October2006)

[27] Gerald E Marsh and George S Stanford Yucca Mountain The Right DecisionhttpwwwnationalcenterorgNPA415html (June 2002)

[28] Steve Kirsch httpskirschcompoliticsglobalwarmingifrhtm Summary blog

[29] Janne Wallenius Ateranvandning av langlivat avfall och sluten branslecykel mojlig i nya reaktortyper(Reuse of long-lived waste and a closed fuel cycle possible in new reactor types) Nucleus (April 2007)15ndash19

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 15

Appendix ndash Fission product yields from light-water reactors

See httpenwikipediaorgwikiFission_product_yield Sorted by half life

Number Isotope decay path Mass per

fractiondagger and half life GWe-year Comment

28336 131I802dminusrarr 131Xe 3150 kg Reduced by 195times10minus14 per year ndash 06 ng after one year

554478 Various lt 1y 5411 kglowast Decay to stable products

03912 106Ru3736dminusrarr 106Rh 3519 kg

asymp 035 134Cs2065yminusrarr 134Ba 3980 kg Created in the reactor from 133Cs by neutron capture

22713 147Pm262yminusrarr 147Sm 2833 kg

00297 125Sb276yminusrarr 125Te 315 g

lt00330 155Eu476yminusrarr 155Gd 434 g Mostly destroyed by neutron capture in the reactor

02717 85Kr1078yminusrarr 85Rb 1960 kg Currently released to the atmosphere

lt00003 113mCd141yminusrarr 113mIn 288 g Mostly destroyed by neutron capture in the reactor

57518 90Sr289yminusrarr 90Y 4393 kg Principal medium-term radiation and heat source319hminusrarr 90Zr

60899 137Cs3008yminusrarr 137Ba 7080 kg Principal medium-term radiation and heat source

lt04203 151Sm90yminusrarr 151Eu 5385 kg Mostly destroyed by neutron capture in the reactor

1e18yminusrarr 147Pm 151Eu is essentially stable262yminusrarr 147Sm1e11yminusrarr 143Nd

60507 99Tc211kyminusrarr 99Ru 5083 kg Dominant radiation source among fission products in the

range of 104 rarr 106 years candidate for transmutation

to 100Tc1546sminusrarr 100Ru

00236 126Sn230kyminusrarr 126Sb 252 g1235dminusrarr 126Te

00508 79Se295kyminusrarr 79Br 341 g

62856 93Zr153myminusrarr 93Nb 4960 kg

lt63333 135Cs23myminusrarr 135Ba 7255 kg

01629 107Pd65myminusrarr 107Ag 1479 kg

06576 129I157myminusrarr 129Xe 7198 kg Candidate for transmutation to 130I

1236hminusrarr 130Xe

asymp 644 133Cs stable 7268 kg A few percent converted by neutron capture to 134Cs

lt10888 149Sm stable 1377 kg

lt00065 157Gd stable 8659 gdaggerThe number fraction is the fraction of the atoms of fission products that are the specified isotope notthe mass fraction The mass is computed by multiplying the number fraction by the atomic mass andnormalizing the total to one tonne per GWe-yearlowastAssumes average mass number of 115

Thermal neutron transmutation of 90Sr 137Cs 126Sn 79Se 93Zr 135Cs and 107Pd is not practical due tolow neutron absorption cross section at the neutron temperature in LWRs

Page 16 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

The amount of an isotope at a particular time can be calculated by solving the differential equation

dN(t)

dt= k minus ln 2

τN(t)

where N(t) is the amount at time t in years k is the production rate per year and τ is the half-life in yearsThe solution (assuming N(0) = 0) is

N(t) =τk

ln 2

(1minus 2minustτ

)

From this when t gtgt τ the amount of each radioactive fission product is exponentially asymptotic toa constant approximately τk ln 2 decay compensates for production The amount of these materials isproportional to the power capacity not the total amount of energy produced If stable decay products arecontinuously removed the size of the repository is roughly constant

The following table shows asymptotic fractions and asymptotic masses per GWe (not GWe-year) of shortand medium half-life fission products The fraction is measured in terms of the annual number of fissionproduct atoms which is twice the number of actinide atoms consumed

Asymptotic number fraction and mass per GWe

Isotope Fraction Mass kg Isotope Fraction Mass kg

137Cs3008yminusrarr 137Ba 2643 3072lowast 90Sr

289yminusrarr 90Y2671dminusrarr 90Zr 2398 1831

Various τ lt 1y 7999 lt7806dagger 147Pm262yminusrarr 147Sm 85852 1071

85Kr1078yminusrarr 85Rb 4226 3048Dagger 134Cs

2065yminusrarr 134Ba 1043 1185lowast

106Ru3736dminusrarr 106Rh 05773 5192 155Eu

476yminusrarr 155Gd 02266 2981125Sb

276yminusrarr 125Te 01183 1254 131I802dminusrarr 131Xe 00898 0998

lowastAssumes isotope separation of 133Cs 134Cs 135Cs and 137Cs Total caesium

accumulates at 220 kgGWe-yrdaggerThe unclassified components are assumed to have an average mass number of

115 and to have a one year half life Since they are a mixture of products with

half lives under one year the true asymptotic fraction and mass are lessDagger 85Kr is currently vented to the atmosphere

The total mass of these products exponentially approaches an asymptote of less than 5844 kg per GWeor 9934 tonnes for a 17 TWe economy If their decay products are continuously removed storage isnot a problem If not reprocessed they are diluted by their decay products and therefore their specificactivity declines sufficiently that they are not radioactively dangerous after 200ndash300 years but the volumeis proportional to kt not k In 200 years of a 17 TWe economy the amount is less than 250000 tonnes lessthan 130000 cubic yards or less than 44 feet deep on a football field Separating the streams according tohalf life reduces the 200-year stream by 85

For long-lived isotopes ie t ltlt τ on a human time scale decay does not compensate for productionApproximating 2minustτ = exp(minust ln 2τ) asymp 1minus t ln 2τ the solution is N(t) asymp kt as expected The amount ofthese fission products is in proportion to the total amount of energy produced not the power capacity

Long-lived isotopes accumulate at the rate of about 182 kg per GWe-year or about 309 tonnes per year fora 17 TWe economy 99Tc and 129I can be destroyed by transmutation but the others amounting to about124 kg per GWe-year are impractical to destroy by transmutation If other isotopes of caesium (about 147kg per GWe-year) are not separated from 135Cs the total long-term disposal stream increases to 271 kg perGWe-year (but its specific activity decreases) If stored for about 30 years before disposal about 35 kg perGWe-year of 137Cs will decay leaving about 235 kg per GWe-year or about 400 tonnes per year for a 17TWe economy if the resulting stable 137Ba were removed Surely disposal of 400 tonnes per year of theseisotopes would not be a problem

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 17

Value of one tonne of used LWR fuelseparated and reduced to metal

Value Radioactivity

Value $tonne (MevBq-s) Half life Heat

Substance Mass (gr) $gr of waste α β γ (years) Wgr238U 944100 0143 135006 42 0496 447times109

236U 3971 0143 568 45 0494 234times107

235U 7974 0143 1140 44 0657 704234U 225 0143 32 48 00532 245times105

237Np 503 0143 72 47 00294 214times106

242Pu 454 0143 65 48 00449 376times105

241Pu 111 0143 16 49 01485 1435240Pu 2302 0143 329 52 05424 656times103

239Pu 5025 0143 719 52 00516 241times104

238Pu 95 0143 14 55 00435 8774 156241Am 1084 0143 155 55 00595 432243Am 85 0143 12 53 00747 737244Cm 4 0143 1 58 00428 1811 244

Actinides 965933 0143 13812996Zr 798 305 2434 Stable94Zr 741 305 2260 Stable93Zr 718 305 2190 0010 00305 161times106

92Zr 639 305 1948 Stable91Zr 590 305 1799 Stable90Zr 391 305 1192 Stable

Fuel cladding 3877 305 1182299Tc for alloys 771 1000 7710 00846 weak 2111times105

90Sr 391 200 782 01958 29 09388Sr 350 200 700 Stable137Cs 377 200 754 0187 0479 3017 042135Cs 300 200 600 00757 0662 23times106

133Cs 1125 200 2250 Stable

Heat sources 2543 200 5086

Br 22 100 22 Stable

Mo 3345 0257 860 Stable

Ru 2177 4578 99663 Stable

Ag 76 200 152 Stable

Cd 108 200 216 Stable

Ba 2311 0560 1295 Stable

Tb 26 3000 78 Stable

Dy 14 500 7 Stable

Rh 467 50000 233500 Stable87Rb 365 1178 4300 00817 481times1010

123Te 485 139 675 gt 92times 1016

138La 1215 180 2187 00329 144 102times1011

144Nd 3488 220 7673 190 229times1015

115In 26 1000 26 01532 441times1014

(cont)

Page 18 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

Value of one tonne of used LWR fuelseparated and reduced to metal (cont)

Value Radioactivity

Value $tonne (MevBq-s) Half life Heat

Substance Mass (gr) $gr of waste α β γ (years) Wgr142Ce 2355 028 662 15 gt 50times 1016

152Gd 142 548 778 215 14times1015

147Sm 200 200 400 225 106times1011

148Sm 167 200 334 19323 70times1015

149Sm 24 200 5 Stable151Sm 88 200 17 00196 00216 90152Sm + 154Sm 419 200 838 Stable107Pd 1371 8294 113710 00093 01476 65times106

90Y 456 1000 4560 09336 weak 64 hr152Eu 035 6000 21 00831 0122 134154Eu 1095 6000 6570 0221 0123 8601155Eu 016 6000 9 0047 0087 4753

Other solid 19297 4785583H 00034 294117 1000 00156 1254He 289 173 5 Stable85Kr 308 200 616 0687 0514 1072

Xe 5332 170 9050 Stable

Gases 5643 10671

Total fission 32131 1600 513937

products

Not counted 1936

Total 1000000 065 652066

httpbrcgove-mailsAugust10Commercial Value of 1 Metric ton of used fuelpdf with radioac-tivity data from httpwwwnndcbnlgovchart

Actinides can be recycled as fuel

Zirconium from fuel pin alloys and cladding and fission products can be recycled into new fuel pin claddingand alloys

Some radioactive elements produce sufficient heat to be usable as energy sources for example in radioisotopethermal generators for space applications These would not be isotopically separated 90Sr is 53 of thetotal strontium in fission products so heat production for all strontium is 049 Wgr 137Cs is 21 of thetotal caesium in fission products so heat production for all caesium is 0088 Wgr

Technetium is valuable for alloying with rhenium and has medical applications

Gases would be separated first then actinides then highly radioactive products This would reduce the costof separating and reducing the stable and less radioactive products

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 19

Appendix ndash Fuel and waste cycles

Actinides

IFRReprocessing

PrimaryProcessing

Disposaland sale

NonradioactiveLong half lifemostly 135Cs and 93Zr30 kg per GWe-yr665 kg per GWe-yearwith all cesium

ContinuousReprocessing

584 tonnes per GWe

Medium andshort half life

1 Tonneper GWe-year

99Tc 13 kg129I 177 kg

per GWe-yr

Usedfuel

Usedfuel

Sale

Nonradioactive

20 tonnes per GWe-yr

Enrichment

Sale

Disposaland sale

Enrichment LWR andLWR reprocessing

eventually phased out

LWRLWR

Reprocessing

Depleted uraniumstorage

Plutonium

8-10 tonnesper GWestartup

IFR

Enriched uranium

Fis

sion

pro

duct

s1

Ton

ne p

er G

We-

yr

MinedUranium

Acceleratortransmutation

Unused fuel and fissionproducts for transmutation

1 tonneper GWe-yr

Page 20 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

Appendix ndash Partitioning and Transmutation

Medium- and long-lived fission products could in principle be destroyed by transmuting them to isotopesthat are stable or have short half lives which decay to stable isotopes

The following tablea shows that 99Tc 129I 93Zr 107Pd and 135Cs can be transmuted much faster thantheir natural decay (ie T Jtrans ltlt T J12) The radiotoxicity of 107Pd and 135Cs is so small it is not worth

the bother to transmute them 93Zr can be recycled into fuel pin cladding or fuel alloying If 99Tc and129I were destroyed there could be very few remaining objections to nuclear power For 90Sr and 137CsT Jtrans gtgt T J12 so transmuting them is not interesting They are biologically active but can simply be

stored for about six half lives (180 years) after which the remaining amounts (069 and 11 kgGWe-yr) canbe discarded or sold If they are initially deposited in ldquodeep geologicalrdquo storage the containment durationrequirement for the repositories is significantly shorter by a factor of 1500 than for used LWR fuel For 79Seand 126Sn T Jtrans ltlt T J12 but T Jtrans is not sufficiently small to be interesting Although the radiotoxicity

per gram of 126Sn and 79Se is large they are produced in such small amounts that their total radiotoxicityper GWe-yr is comparable to that of the others

Isotope J decay Radiotoxicity σJ(nγ) (barns) T Jtrans (years) Mass per Transmuted

mode and T J12 Svg SvGWe-yr Thermal Fast Thermal Fast GWe-yr decay mode

90Sr289yminusrarr 90Y 1411k 1664M 014 001 1600 2200 1179 kg 91Sr

963hminusrarr 91Y137Cs

3008yminusrarr 137Ba 4187k 1152M 002 001 11000 2200 2752 kg 138Cs3341mminusrarr 138Ba

99Tc211kyminusrarr 99Ru 04 8708 43 02 51 110 2177 kg 100Tc

1546sminusrarr 100Ru126Sn

230kyminusrarr 126Sb 4936 4019 005 0005 4400 4400 0814 kg 127Sn21hminusrarr 127Sb

79Se295kyminusrarr 79Br 7478 1271 01 003 2200 7300 0170 kg 80Se is stable

93Zr153myminusrarr 93Nb 0102 2097 028 003 790 730 2056 kg 94Zr is stable

135Cs23myminusrarr 135Ba 0085 1009 13 007 170 310 1187 kg 136Cs

1304dminusrarr 136Ba107Pd

65myminusrarr 107Ag 00007 8309 03 05 730 44 6922 kg 108Pd is stable129I

157myminusrarr 129Xe 0718 4921 43 014 51 160 8853 kg 130I1236hminusrarr 130Xe

T Jtrans is the transmutation half-time for isotope J

Amounts and radioactivity from ORIGEN 22 Radiotoxicity dose factors from ICRP publication 119

This graph from the Swedish Radiation Safety Authorityb[29]

0001

001

01

1

10

100Radiotoxic inventory [Svg]

102 103 104 105 106101

TRU

FP

Uranium in nature

t[y]

shows that most of the radiotoxicity of used nuclear fuel arisesfrom the transuranics which IFR would consume and thatthe radiotoxicity of fission products is below the radiotoxic-ity of uranium ore within 200-300 years Transmuting 99Tcand 129I would reduce the long-term tail of the fission productradiotoxicity from 300 years onward by 60 The ordinateis radiotoxicity per gram of the original fission products notthe remaining fission products at the time specified by the ab-scissa Fission products are stored together stable ones arenot continuously separated from radioactive ones

aData from httpusersictpit˜pub_offlectureslns005Number_2Slessarev_1pdfbhttpwwwstralsakerhetsmyndighetenseGlobalPublikationerTidskriftNucleus2007Nucleus-4-2007pdf

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 21

Appendix ndash Worldwide limitations of alternative energy sources

Details in httpwwwphysicsucsdedu~tmurphyphys239shu_energypdf by Dr Frank Shu

Solar photovoltaic

Solar photovoltaic could in principle supply 15 TWe enough to power the Earthrsquos entire current energyeconomy using about 02 of the land area of the Earth below 60 latitude

Wind

Land-based wind cannot supply more than about 18 TWe or about 12 of the current energy economy

Ocean currents

The Kuroshio current which flows northward in the western Pacific past Taiwan and Japan has a powerof about 100 GW Assuming 50 efficiency of extraction allows about 50 GWe to be extracted The gulfstream flows twice as fast producing eight times as much power allowing about 400 GWe to be extractedExtracting significant power from ocean currents anywhere in the world would have profound effects onclimate

Coastal ocean waves

Assuming 50 efficiency of energy extraction ocean waves impinging on all the shorelines of the Earth couldprovide about 024 TWe or about 16 of the current energy economy

Geothermal

Geothermal sources cannot provide more than about 04 TWe or about 27 of the current energy economy

Tides

Energy extractable from tidal sources amounts to about 3 GWe worldwide or about 002 of the currentenergy economy It is only economically feasible in bays such as the Bay of Fundy which concentrate tidesto heights of as much as 5 meters Damming such bays has effects on the resonant frequency of nearby baysand estuaries profoundly altering currents and tides in nearby areas

Hydroelectric

The Earthrsquos land area is 148times 1012 m2 Average rainfall is 12 meters per year Water density is 103 kgm3

Total rainfall is thus about 18times 1017 kg Dropping 100 meters releases 18times 1017 kgtimes 98 ms2 times 100 m =

176times 1020 joule Spread out over a year 315times 107 s gives 56 TW Assuming 90 efficiency yields 5 TWeThe total available is less perhaps 35 TWe if polar regions are excluded Hydroelectric installations observeabout 30 capacity factor yielding total worldwide availability of about 1 TWe-yryr or about 67 of thecurrent energy economy

Total

Excluding solar photovoltaic and ocean currents alternative electricity sources could yield about 3443 TWeworldwide or about 23 of the current energy economy

Page 22 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

To supply all road rail pipeline ship airplane and heavy equipment fuels would require 1270 of currently-harvested cropland area or 130 of the nationrsquos total land area

Even providing only all ship airplane and heavy equipment fuels from biofuels would require 190 ofcurrently-harvested cropland area or about 18 of the nationrsquos total land area (Alaska included) Whatwould we eat

Currently-harvested cropland area is about 75 of total farmland area It is not possible to harvest 100of farmland Some must remain fallow each year to avoid depletion and some is pasture

Irrational hysteria about nuclear power regretted

Patrick Moore a cofounder of Greenpeace realizes that his view in the 1970rsquos that nuclear power and nuclearweapons are the same thing was naıve He now advocates nuclear power as ldquothe energy source that cansave our planet from another possible disaster catastrophic climate change rdquo ldquoNuclear energy is the onlylarge-scale cost-effective energy source that can reduce these emissions [of CO2] while continuing to satisfya growing demand for power rdquo For his honesty Greenpeace has kicked him outa on page 1

Hersquos not alone James Lovelock father of the Gaia theory Stewart Brand founder of the Whole EarthCatalog the late Bishop Hugh Montefiore founder and director of Friends of the Eartha James Hansenthe outspoken NASA climate scientist Mark Lynas an outspoken critic of nuclear power before learning ofIFR and many other former critics of nuclear power are now nuclear power advocates

Safety of nuclear power in OECD countries

According to the Paul Scherrer Institute Nuclear Energy and Safety Research Divisionbc nobody has diedin any OECD or EU-27 country as a result of the operation of a civilian nuclear electric power generator

Impressive as is the current perfect safety record IFR is a more modern design that incorporates additionalsafety features In particular above the designed operating temperature it has a negative temperaturecoefficient meaning that the hotter the reaction gets the slower it goes ultimately settling down at anequilibrium temperature far below the ldquomeltdownrdquo temperature This depends upon immutable laws ofphysics not upon skill of operators computers pumps or indeed on any moving parts at all other thanthermal expansion of the reactor core

Seven years after the Three Mile Island ac-

800

1000

1200

1400

-100 0 100 200 300 400 500

Time after loss of power (seconds)

Tem

per

atu

re (

oF

)

Maximum fuel claddingtemperature

Figure 1 Core temperature after loss of cooling

cident the prototype of IFR called EBR-IIwas compromised in the same way that theThree Mile Island reactor was compromised(loss of coolant flow) It shut down with-out any damage to the reactor harm to theoperators or release of radioactive materi-als A few hours earlier it had been com-promised in the other known way (loss ofheat sink) Again it shut down gracefully[3] One month later the Chernobyl reactorwas compromised in the second way Ac-cording to Pete Planchon [7] who ran thetests for an invited international audienceldquoBack in 1986 we actually gave a small [20MWe] prototype advanced fast reactor a couple of chances to melt down It politely refused both timesrdquo

aFriends of the Earth forced Bishop Montefiore to resign after he published a pro-nuclear article in a church magazinebhttpswwwpsichneschttpswwwpsichtaRiskENSECURE_Deliverable_D5_7_2_Severe_Accident_Riskspdf page 43

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 5

Three Mile Island

Notwithstanding the hysteria of Jack Lemmon Jane Fonda and Michael Douglas in the movie ldquoThe ChinaSyndromerdquo nobody that is NOBODY was injured by the Three Mile Island accident It was a brilliantsuccess story of careful designa which has since been improved by lessons learned Insurers paid out only$70 million The owners spent a further $973 million on cleanup Nobody has died of a radiation-relatedaccident in the history of the US civilian nuclear electric power reactor programf or civilian nuclear electricpower reactor programs in any OECD or EU-27 country

Chernobyl

Chernobyl was an accident waiting to happen The reactor had an inadequate containment structure it wasan inherently unsafe designb (nobody plans to build another 3 GWth reactor out of charcoal and surround itwith a tin-foil containment shed) and the operators literally (but unintentionally) blew it up by bypassingsafety interlocks and already-inadequate shutdown mechanisms ironically in a rush to get a safety checkdone The 173-page report of the United Nations Scientific Committee for the Effects of Atomic Radiation(UNSCEAR)cd[8] concludes that

bull 134 plant workers and emergency workers suffered Acute Radiation Syndrome (ARS) from high dosesof radiation Two workers were killed by falling debris One died from coronary thrombosis

bull In the first few months after the accident 28 ARS victims died

bull Although another 19 ARS sufferers had died by 2006 those deaths had different causes not usuallyassociated with radiation exposure

bull Skin injuries and cataracts were among the most common consequences in ARS survivors

bull Although several hundred thousand people as well as the emergency workers were involved in recoveryoperations there is no consistent evidence of health effects that can be attributed to radiation exposureapart from indications of increased incidence of leukemia and of cataracts among those who receivedhigher doses

bull 6000 cases of thyroid cancer were reported between 1991 and 2005 in affected areas It is not possibleto state scientifically that radiation caused a particular cancer in a particular individual By 2005only fifteen of those cases had been fatal

bull Radiation doses to the general public in the three most affected countries (Ukraine Belarus Russia)were relatively low and most residents ldquoneed not live in fear of serious health consequencesrdquo In themost affected areas the average additional dose over the period 1986-2005 is approximately equivalentto that of one computed tomography scan

bull There is no ongoing increased risk of solid tumors or blood cancers

The World Nuclear Association attributes 30 deaths to the accidente ldquoTragic as those deaths were theypale in comparison to the more than 5000 coal-mining deaths worldwide every yearrdquo says Mooref

ahttpwwwworld-nuclearorginfoinf36htmlbThe Soviet RBMK reactor design is based upon the design of a military reactor which was in turn based upon de-

sign documents for the US Hanford reactors stolen from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory before the Hanford reactorswere built optimized for production of plutonium for weapons purposes scaled up for civilian nuclear power production(httpwwwworld-nuclearorginfoinf31html)

chttpwwwunscearorgunscearenchernobylhtmldhttpwwwunisunviennaorgunisenpressrels2011unisinf398htmlehttpwwwworld-nuclearorginfoSafety-and-SecuritySafety-of-PlantsChernobyl-Accident ndash see Appendix 1

Sequence of eventsfhttpwwwwashingtonpostcomwp-dyncontentarticle20060414AR2006041401209html

Page 6 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

More to the point Chernobyl was a steam explosion followed by a hydrogen explosiona followed by agraphite fire Although a test reactor at Idaho National Laboratory was intentionally destroyed by promptcriticalityb it is impossible for a municipal nuclear reactor licensed in an OECD or EU-27 country to generatea nuclear explosion IFR being liquid-metal cooled has no water in the core and is not graphite moderatedA steam explosion a hydrogen explosion or a graphite fire is impossible in the core of an IFR

Fukushima

Despite widespread hysteria a reportc from the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of AtomicRadiation (UNSCEAR) presented to the UN General Assembly in October 2013 [9] shows that nobody waskilled injured or made ill by the destruction of the reactors at Fukushima by the earthquake and tsunamiand nobody will be

From Page 9 section 2 ldquoDose Assessmentrdquo para 29 ldquoThe Japanese people receive an effective dose of radiationfrom naturally occurring sources of on average about 21 millisieverts (mSv) annually and a total of about170 mSv over their lifetimesrdquo

From page 11 section 3 ldquoHealth Implicationsrdquo para 38 ldquoNo radiation-related deaths or acute diseases have beenobserved among the workers and general public exposed to radiation from the accidentrdquo

para 40 ldquoFor adults in Fukushima Prefecture the Committee estimates [the increase in] average lifetime effectivedoses to be of the order of 10 mSv or less a discernible increase in cancer incidence in this populationthat could be attributed to radiation exposure from the accident is not expectedrdquo

For comparison the dose from an abdominal and pelvic CT scan repeated with and without contrast wouldbe about 30 mSv or about ten yearsrsquo worth of average normal background radiation This increases lifetimecancer risk from 1 in 5 to 1005 in 5 Yearly dose on the Tibetan plateau is 13-20 mSv In areas of monazitedeposits in Brazil and India doses exceed 36 mSvyear

Nuclear power reactor waste

Foremost among the benefits of IFR beyond enhanced inherent safety the amount of waste is a factor of 20less than the amount produced by LWRs Most IFR waste is dangerously radioactive for five years and theremainder for a few hundred years instead of a few hundred thousand years [1]

The 2000 tons of used fuel removed from US LWRs per year are currently considered waste but are actuallya valuable resource because only 5 of their energy content has been extracted

Used fuel has a density of about 11 gramscm3 or about 8 tonsyd3 As of 2006 total US commercial fueldischarges amounted to about 59160 tonnesd or about 7400 cubic yards of accumulated ldquowasterdquo This isalready enough for 8ndash10 Yucca Mountains If piled on a 3000 square yard football field it would be 74feet deep (but it would melt) The 100000000 tons of eternally-toxic solid wastee from operation of UScoal-fired power plants in 2006 alone would be about 74000 feet or about 14 miles deepf amounting to 740miles in fifty years

aSteam reacted with zirconium fuel pin cladding to produce hydrogenbNuclear fission produces two populations of neutrons those emitted within about ten nanoseconds (prompt neutrons) and

those emitted up to several seconds later (delayed neutrons) If critical neutron flux arises from prompt neutrons it is notpossible to control the reaction

chttpwwwunscearorgdocsGAreportsA-68-46_e_V1385727pdfdhttpwwweiadoegovcneafnuclearspent_fuelussnfdatahtml reports LWR waste of 42750 tonnes through 2002

httpwwweiadoegovemeuaertxtstb0902xls reports 631 GWe-yr nuclear production 2003ndash2009 and 16 TWe-yr from1957ndash2002 Assuming the same 26718 tonnesTWe-yr 1957ndash2002 rate for 2003ndash2009 gives 16860 additional tonnes

eAccording to httpwwwornlgovinfoornlreviewrev26-34textcolmainhtml there is 163 times more energy inthe waste from coal-fired power plants than in the coal that was burned 47 tonnes of uranium and 116 tonnes of thorium perGWe-yr about 0036 of a coal-fired power plantrsquos solid waste Power plants account for only 74 of coal combustion

fAccording to httpwwwtfhrcgovhnr20recyclewastecbabs1htm density is 10125ndash135 tonsyd3

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 7

In addition to the 5-used-fuel ldquowasterdquo there are about 900000 tons of depleted-uranium ldquowasterdquo left overfrom the enrichment process containing more than 90 of the energy in the uranium that was mined

The rate at which waste generates heat is a more important factor than its volume With transuranicspresent ndash as in what we currently call ldquowasterdquo ndash the long-term capacity of a repository is determined by theheat those transuranics will generate millennia hence With them removed the primary determining factorbecomes heat generated by 137Cs and 90Sr With transuranics removed but 137Cs and 90Sr remaining thecapacity of a repository is increased by a factor of about five compared to the current technology With only137Cs and 90Sr remaining the capacity is enormously increased [1]

A reactor (IFR or otherwise) produces about 1 tonne of fission products per GWe-year The current USLWR fleet produces about 90 GWe-year per year thereby generating about 90 tonnes of fission productsper year about 5 of the total ldquowasterdquo or about 300 milligrams per American Radioactive 137Cs and90Sr amount to about 39 kg per GWe-year Not all isotopes of caesium and strontium are radioactive andisotopic separation is costly so it makes more sense to consider total caesium and strontium fission productswhich amount to 92 kgGWe-year about 83 Tonnesyr or about 24 milligrams per American per year Ifall those fission products within the 59160 tonnes of ldquowasterdquo accumulated from 1957 until 2006 were spreadon a football field the pile would be about 044 inches deep A pile of all fission products including thosethat are nonradioactive or have very short half lives would be 48 inches deep (but it would melt)

If the current American supply of LWRs were replaced by IFRs the stream of ldquowasterdquo would be reduced from1818 to 90 tonnes per year and if left mixed instead of separated those 90 tonnes would be less radiotoxicthan mined uranium before 200ndash300 years instead of 300000 years as for LWR ldquowasterdquo

The nonradioactive short-lived and long-lived fission products could be separated Strontium and caesiumconstitute 9 of fission products 6 of fission products (99Tc and 129I) have very long half lives but canbe transmuted to short-lived isotopes (1546 seconds and 1236 hours) by neutron absorption within thereactor thereby effectively destroying them 93Zr another 2 of fission products can be recycled into fuelpin cladding or alloying (where it doesnrsquot matter that itrsquos radioactive and the radioactivity is low-energybeta ndash electron ndash emission anyway) The remaining 89 are less radiotoxic than mined uranium before five toten years The stream requiring long-term storage (strontium and caesium) would thereby be substantiallyreduced to about 92 kgGWe-yr The specific activity (heat generation per kilogram) of the remainderwould be reduced Other fission products (primarily 137Cs and 90Sr) could in principle be destroyed byneutron transmutation but it takes longer than their normal decay Even if they are simply stored howevertheir specific activity is so low that storage is not a significant problem At an average of $16 milliontonne(some much higher) the appreciable commercial value of many fission productsa reduces the storage problemeven further

If all current US electric power generating capacity were replaced with IFR the stream of fission productswould amount to 450 tonnes per year of which 41 tonnes require long-term custody This is less than onequarter the quantity of 5-used fuel that is generated by the LWRs that supply about 20 of our presentelectric power needs

A 17 TWe energy economy powered by IFRs would produce 1700 tonnes of fission products per year orabout 65 less than the 1818 tonnes of 5-used fuel removed from the LWRs that currently supply onlyabout 53 of our energy needs Long-lived fission products (mostly 93Zr and 135Cs) amount to about 131kg per GWe-year or 223 tonnes (730 milligrams per American) altogether per year 93Zr could be recycledinto fuel-pins so it neednrsquot be stored 93Zr and 135Cs would occupy about 121 yd3 or about 14 inch ifspread on a football field They have such low specific activity that they are not considered to be dangerousIf 133Cs (stable) 134Cs (2065y) and 137Cs (3008y) are not removed the amount is 269 yd3 per year

Fission products with half-lives less than thirty years are less radiotoxic than mined natural uranium before200ndash300 years so custody is simple for them Production and radioactive decay offset each other expo-nentially approaching an asymptote of about 584 tonnes of radioactive material per GWe (not GWe-year)If stable decay products are continuously removed a constant capacity is needed for radioactive materialstorage preferably co-located with each IFR

That is storage and disposal are not problems and therefore IFR waste is not a problem

ahttpbrcgove-mailsAugust10Commercial Value of 1 Metric ton of used fuelpdf

Page 8 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

Refer to the appendices for more details

Availability of nuclear fuel

For LWRs the concentration of 235U the fissile isotope is typically enriched from the natural 071 toabout 42 leaving behind a supply of uranium depleted in 235U that is about 57 times the amount ofldquoreactor graderdquo enriched uranium Combining this and the 4-5 fuel efficiency of LWR we extract lessthan 06 of the energy in mined uranium In a reactor some of the 238U is transmuted into 239Pu andother transuranics which are directly usable as IFR fuel In an IFR energy economy once started thosetransuranics rather than 235U provide much of the fission energy and the neutrons needed to transmute 238Uinto more transuranics That is (a) enrichment is not necessary and (b) the currently left-behind depleteduranium is valuable as future fuel

Using a rule of thumb that fissioning 09 kg of actinides yields 1 GWth-day of energy and generating 1 GWerequires 3 GWth to be expended 1 GWe-yr requires 36525 times 3 times 09 = 981 kg asymp 1 tonne of actinides tobe converted to fission products If mined uranium were used to 100 capacity instead of 06 total USpower demand of about 1700 GWe would require about 1700 tonnes of new uranium per year

IFRs could use the current US supply of LWR ldquowasterdquo a substance of which we are desperately eager tobe rid as fuel If nothing is done other than to build an IFR to replace each LWR as it reaches the endof its useful lifea about 50 tonnes of start-up fuel per IFR plus one tonne per year of make-up uraniumthereafterb would be needed That is assuming there are 900000 tonnes of LWR ldquowasterdquo on hand (usedfuel plus depleted uranium) there is enough fuel from that alone for about 10000 years without miningmilling refining or enriching any new uranium

If all current US electric generating capacity were replaced with IFRs about 450 tonnes of makeup fuelwould be needed per year that is there is enough fuel for about 2000 years If the entire energy economywere powered by IFR about 1700 tonnes per year would be needed that is there is enough fuel from currentLWR ldquowasterdquo alone for almost 530 years Is it really ldquowasterdquo

Uranium is four times more common than tin and ten times more common than silver Currently knownreserves of uranium in ore of current commercial grade contain about five million tonnes of the metalc Thatis enough for about 4300 years if used in 90 GWe capacity of US LWRs or about 4800 years if all 1700GWe US power demand were supplied by IFRs Current total worldwide energy demand is about fourtimes US energy demand so if the entire world were to be powered by IFRs at current demand there isenough uranium counting only known reserves profitably recoverable at $138kgU for about 1200 years

The picture isnrsquot so bleak however because the efficiency of use of uranium by IFRs means the fuel costper kWh would be the same as for LWRs at $1380006 asymp $23000kgU or about 0001centkWh This makesit economically feasible to use lower grade ores or more importantly to extract uranium from seawaterwhere there is estimated to be about 45 billion tonnes this is enough for more than a million years ofcurrent worldwide energy demand Even this however is a substantial under-estimate because uraniumis continuously flowing into the oceans from rivers That is uranium alone is an essentially inexhaustibleresource Thorium which could in principle serve as fertile future fuel is four times more common thanuranium so even without river inflow all current worldwide power needs could be supplied for about fivemillion years using nuclear fission Nuclear fission is an effectively inexhaustible energy resource

Weapons proliferation

The ldquoIntegralrdquo in IFR means that the entire system including fuel reprocessing is integrated in one facilityActinides go into an IFR none come out except to start a new IFR Opportunities for theft of partly-used

aWe wouldnrsquot replace LWRs prematurely because the IFR system functions symbiotically with the current fuel cyclebIFR fuel has to be asymp 20 fissile (mainly PU-239) and 80 fertile (U-238) Once an IFR has been loaded it can generate its

own fissile material from fertile material so all it would need to keep running is one tonne of unenriched uranium per GWe-yearc httpwwwworld-nuclearorginfoinf75html

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 9

fuel would be reduced because it would not be transported to a separate facility for processing

Unlike LWRs an IFR power economy once started does not need its uranium fuel to be enriched in 235UThis means that it is not necessary to have any facility to enrich uranium for other than military purposesA reactor owner does need however either ironclad international guarantees of assured fuel supply or theability to reprocess partly used fuel

The ability to reprocess fuel implies the presence of a cadre of professionals who are familiar with most of thetechniques for making weapons-grade materials The mixture of actinides taken out of IFR for reprocessingpresents more difficult radiation thermal chemical and metallurgical problems to would-be weaponeersthan those taken from LWR It is unsuitable for direct use in weapons primarily because of the presenceof 243Am 241Pu and non-fissionable 238Pu 240Pu and 242Pu but is admirably suited as IFR fuel 241Puemits 50 times more heat 5000 times more neutrons and 100 times more gamma radiation than 239PuThis could damage a weapon or cause predetonation and makes maintenance of fine mechanical tolerancesdifficult Expensive remote assembly is mandatory Separating 239Pu from nearby isotopes is more difficultthan separating 238U from 235U first because the mass difference is smaller and second because synthesizingthe gaseous compound PuF6 needed for centrifugal or gas diffusion isotope separation is difficult Eventhough the problem of extracting weapons-grade materials from LWR is easier than for IFR nobody hasdone so Every nuclear weapons program has depended upon enriched uranium or upon purpose-builtreactors optimized to produce 239Pu and these have been nation-scale projects not backyard garage-scaleprojects that a terrorist cell might successfully undertake The simple conclusion is that used LWR fuel isjust about the most difficult material from which to produce nuclear weapons [3] A Lawrence LivermoreNational Laboratory study [10] concluded that spent IFR fuel cannot be used to make a nuclear weaponwithout significant further processing

Even if the difficulties of producing weapons from used reactor fuel could be overcome IFR presents nonew problems of weapons proliferation because reprocessing and enrichment are not substantially differentfrom the standpoint of international oversight No countryrsquos desire or ability to produce nuclear weaponshas ever been affected by any other countryrsquos decision to reprocess or not to reprocess used municipalreactor fuel Every advanced industrial country could in principle produce nuclear weapons independentlyof any other countryrsquos decision to reprocess or not to reprocess used municipal reactor fuel If a countrycannot be trusted with this technology do not sell reactors or fuel reprocessing systems to them The samelong-distance transmission that would be required for solar power would serve their needs

Costs

GE estimates their version of IFR known as S-PRISMa can be built for about $15-2W or $22W after a90 capacity factor is incorporated [11] A GEHitachi consortium estimates they could produce IFR for$12-14W [3] The Diablo Canyon generating station produces electricity for 5cent per kWh The Palo Verdestation was constructed for $179W and produces electricity for 43cent per kWh

T Boone Pickens proposed to build a 4 GWe wind farm The estimated cost ballooned to $3W or $15Wafter incorporating a 21 capacity factor [3] The project was abandoned The Sacramento Municipal UtilityDistrict (SMUD) reports a 15 capacity factor for solar photovoltaic ldquoNo system with capacity factors thislow is a viable energy producing systemrdquo [11] After incorporating these capacity factors the effectiveconstruction costs increase to $4000-$8500kWe for wind and $16000-$60000kWe for solar SMUDestimates a 69-year financial payback for solar photovoltaicb Because wind and solar are diffuse sources$11-13 trillion would be needed for grid upgrades [3] adding another $750kWe to the construction costBecause they are diffuse and erratic sources additional costs for storage would be necessary

In 2017 the lowest-price solar cells cost $180 per peak watt With 15 capacity factor this is $12 peraverage watt Amortized over 25 years at 5 and deducting the four-plus year energy payback capital costalone is 117cent per kWh (181cent at 10) The GVEA 40 battery in Fairbanks Alaska is the largest utility-scale

aSuper Power Reactor Inherently Safe ModularbLifetime is only 30ndash40 years See httpwwwostigovbridgeservletspurl755637-oDWEJRwebviewable755637pdf

or httpwwwglobalspeccomLearnMoreOptics_Optical_ComponentsOptoelectronicsPhotovoltaic_Cells

Page 10 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

storage battery It weighs 1200 tonnes provides 10 MWh storage and cost $350Wh Amortized over fiveyears this is 57centkWha To have constant output the panel capacity needs to be twice the demand ndash halffor immediate use and half to charge batteries so the capital cost for cells plus storage is 291cent per kWhThis does not include mounting transportation operation maintenance land recycling or grid upgradesThe equation used to calculate amortized cost is

A(n) = rA(nminus 1)minus p

where A(0) is the initial cost per watt and A(n) is the amount remaining to be paid after n payments ofp dollars at an interest rate of 100(r minus 1) per payment period Solving this equation for A(n) settingA(n) = 0 and solving for p gives

p = A(0) rnr minus 1

rn minus 1

The cost per watt hour is pH where H is hours per payment period If the payment period is one yearand power is provided continuously H is 8766 (36525times24) Because solar panels have a 45 year energypayback period the final value needs to be multiplied by n(nminus 45) where n is years

The following table compares construction costs for eight renewable sources [3] Costs are per peak kWenot average kWe The capacity factor is not included

Cost Cost Cost CostSource $kWe Source $kWe Source $kWe Source $kWeWind (onshore) 800 Wind (offshore) 1700 Hydro 2000 Geothermal 2100Biomass 2300 Solar (thermal) 2400 Tidal 2800 Solar (PV) 5900

The following table compares operating and construction costs for six electric power technologies [3] [12][13] External grid upgrade and storage costs are not included Since 1981 nuclear power utilities havebeen paying 01centkWh into the Federal Nuclear Waste Fund so LWR decommissioning and ldquowasterdquo handlingcosts are included as internal costs

Operating Average Effective FederalCost Construction Capacity Construction Life Delivered Subsidy

Fuel centkWh Cost $kWe Factor Cost $kWedagger (yrs) centkWhDagger centkWhlowast

LWR Nuclear 49 1000-2000 gt 90 1111-2222 50 515ndash541 0210Coal 60-63 1000-1500 gt 90 1111-1667 50 625ndash668 0056Hydro 40-80 2000 asymp 33 6000 100 469ndash869 0136Gas 76-92 400-800 gt 90 444-888 30 777ndash954 0060Wind 49-100 1000-2000 asymp 21 4762-9524 20 762ndash1543 3533Solar PV 150-300 6000-9000 asymp 15 40000-60000 30 3021ndash5282 23131daggerConstruction cost capacity factorDaggerOperating cost + construction cost ( capacity factor times lifetime ) Amortization not includedlowasthttpwwweiagovanalysisrequestssubsidy tables ES4 and ES5 for 2013

Particulate emissions alone from coal-fired power plants cost $165 billion [3] and cause 30100 prematuredeaths 603000 asthma attacks and 5130000 lost work days per year in the United States alone [14]

Nuclear power has the lowest delivered costs in ten of twelve countries studied [15] (India China and Russiawere not included) The two that did not have the lowest costs were the United States and Korea Thereport did not address the significant costs in the United States of protracted litigation and continuouslyrevised regulations and slow licensing of individual reactors It would be helpful if the Nuclear RegulatoryCommission were to adopt the French system of licensing reactor designs instead of individual reactors IFRs

aProf Nate Lewis in a private seminar Where will we get our energy at Caltech Jet Propulsion Laboratory estimated40-50centkWh

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 11

would be less expensive to build and operate than current technology because they are simpler standardizeddesigns instead of complicated one-off designs [3] The system is further substantially simplified because thecoolant operates at atmospheric pressure instead of 160 atmospheres and it absorbs essentially all neutronsthat escape the core so special alloys and over-designing are not needed to compensate for containmentvessel embrittlement caused by neutron damage and there are much fewer radioactive structural neutronactivation products

When external costs are included nuclear costs are estimated [16] to be about one tenth as much as coalCO2 emissions are explicitly excluded from costs of fossil-fuel systems Nuclear utilities have been paying01centkWh into the Federal Waste Disposal Fund since 1981 for used nuclear fuel disposal and reactor decom-missioning these costs are included as internal costs for LWR The radiological cost of mining is includedbut for IFR that would be irrelevant since there is already enough uranium above ground for several cen-turies For IFR fuel would be cheaper than free for a few hundred years because it would consume the LWRldquowasterdquo of which we are desperately eager to be rid and disposal of IFR waste would be far less expensivethan disposal of 5-used LWR fuel so IFR must have much lower than one tenth the operating cost of coal

The United States has already invested $8 Billion in the Yucca Mountain repository It is estimated to cost$436 Billion to complete [3] and current waste would require about 8-10 times more capacity than YuccaMountain would have at completion IFR would make Yucca Mountain irrelevant and is even more importantnow that the Obama administration has canceled Yucca Mountain Why is the Nevada Congressionaldelegation not insisting that the IFR demonstration project be restarted

Tony Blairrsquos government commissioned a study by Sir Nicholas Stern former vice president and chiefeconomist for the World Bank He recommended committing 1 of global GDP to reduce CO2 emissions to25-70 below current levels by mid century and that increased extreme weather costs alone could reach1 of GDP [3] For the United States that amount of todayrsquos GDP would be $290 billion per year In thenext section we estimate that producing an energy economy entirely powered by IFR could be accomplishedin fewer than 65 years Spending $290 billion per year on CO2 remediation during that interval would cost$188 trillion (in todayrsquos dollars) At $22BGWe for IFR 17 TWe would cost $374 trilliona ndash 20 asmuch ndash and would essentially eliminate CO2 emissions not reduce them by 25-70

What can be done

As admirable as they are conservation biofuels wind geothermal tides waves ocean currents and hydroalone or together cannot power any economy nor can they destroy the 59160 tonnes of ldquowasterdquo from thefirst 53 years of US LWR operations and more accumulated since 2006 Wind and solar are much moreexpensive than IFR There are no good hydro sites that have been exploited A 2017 study [17] concludedthat a 100 renewable-electricity system might not be physically feasible let alone economically viableCoal is terrible (and more expensive as well) Natural gas is more benign than coal but still produces CO2Oil produces CO2 and importing it and protecting access to overseas sources is expensive in both blood andnational treasure Solar is much more expensive than IFR and wouldnrsquot destroy waste That leaves IFR asthe only alternative that is both sufficient and economically viable

There are no serious plans for electric airplanes ships or heavy construction or farm equipment so someliquid hydrocarbon fuels will be needed for the foreseeable future Hydrogen is at present a nonstarterbecause of the storage problem Fortunately we know how to make hydrocarbon fuels from energy + water+ CO2b Using such fuels or hydrogen if the storage problem is solved (or maybe boron [3]) it is possibletherefore to convert the entire US energy economy to electricity provided mostly by IFR with hydrowind solar geothermal or biofuels where appropriate

The current US economy could be powered by about 17 TWe Each 1 GWe reactor needs 8ndash10 tonnesof startup fissile material which would at first largely be actinides from used LWR fuel and plutoniumand enriched uranium from decommissioned weapons The current US inventory of fissionable actinides is

aGEHitachi estimates $21-24 trillion ndash 11-13 of $188 trillionbThe Fischer-Tropsch process

Page 12 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

about 900 tonnes plus about 225 tonnes of weapons-grade 235Ua or enough to start up only about 110-140GWe of capacity using IFR With breeding that IFR fleet could have a sustained growth rate of 5 per yearor maybe more After startup the deployment rate would gradually accelerate from 5ndash7 per year helpedalong by actinides from still-operating LWRs and reach the desired 17 TWe goal within about 40ndash50 yearsor sooner to the extent renewable sources are appropriate or if uranium enrichment is continued

A single complete and permanent solution to all energy pollution nuclear waste and CO2 emission problemsis within our grasp All obstacles to that solution are political abetted and perpetuated by ignoranceintentional falsehoods irrational hysteria and opportunistic demagoguery not scientific technological orengineering problems Competition for energy resources is frequently blamed for wars IFR would eliminatethat excuse

Fast breeder reactors with fuel recycling will be developed There is no credible alternative There is an 800MWe reactor in service in Russiab and a 1200 MWe reactor is under development China has contractedto buy a BN-800 reactor from Russia South Korea has announced a 400 GWe fast-neutron reactor will beavailable for sale in 2020 India is building a prototype fast-neutron reactor to exploit their vast reservesof thorium China and Japan are making progress on their own designs American experts are retiring ordying far faster then younger ones are being prepared The United States will soon be a third-world countryin energy technology

Should the United States spend $188 trillion on CO2 reduction and mitigation $1075 trillion on coal sootdamage $68ndash102 trillion on solar cells $25 trillion on wind turbines $475 trillion on grid upgrades ndash about$130minus170 trillion altogether (and none of those would destroy one gram of nuclear waste) and suffer 2million unnecessary deaths due to coal emissions or spend $24 trillion on IFR (and render all nuclear wasteharmless)

For me the answer is obvious There is no time to waste We really ought to get started

Acknowledgment

This work benefited substantially from constructive criticism by the late Dr George S Stanford

Further reading

[1] Charles E Till and Yoon Il Chang Plentiful energy (2011) ISBN 978-1466384606

[2] William H Hannum Gerald E Marsh and George S Stanford Smarter use of nuclear waste ScientificAmerican (December 2005)httpswwwscientificamericancomarticlesmarter-use-of-nuclear-waste

[3] Tom Blees Prescription For The Planet The painless remedy for our energy and environmental crises(2008) ISBN 1-4196-5582-5 Impressive technical content plus off-putting gratuitous political insultsand nutty ideas about UN control of world energy

[4] D C Wade and Y I Chang The Integral Fast Reactor Physics of operation and safety NuclearScience and Engineering 100 4 (December 1988) 507ndash524

[5] Matthew D Eisaman Keshav Parajuly Alexander Tuganov Craig Eldershaw Noring Chang andKarl A Littau CO2 extraction from seawater using bipolar membrane electrodialysis Energy amp En-vironmental Science 5 6 (May 2012)

[6] National Renewable Energy Laboratory Land-use requirements of modern wind power plants in theUnited States httpwwwnrelgovdocsfy09osti45834pdf (2009)

a141 of LWR waste (httpwwwwhatisnuclearcomarticleswastehtmlcomposition) plus military inventory of 45tonnes 239Pu and 225 tonnes 235U (httpdsp-psdpwgscgccaCollection-RLoPBdPBPbp461-ehtm)

bhttpsenwikipediaorgwikiBN-800_reactor

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 13

[7] David Baurac Passively safe reactors rely on nature to keep them coolhttpwwwneanlgovAbouthnlogos-winter02-psrshtml (Winter 2002)

[8] United Nations Scientific Committee for the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) Scientific AnnexD Health effects due to radiation from the Chernobyl accident in Sources and Effects of IonizingRadiation 2008 Report to the General Assembly Volume II ISBN-13 978-92-1-142280-1 (2011)

[9] United Nations Scientific Committee for the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) Chapter IIIScientific Findings Part A Levels and effects of radiation exposure due to the nuclear accident afterthe great east-Japan earthquake and tsunami in Sources and Effects of Ionizing Radiation 2013 Reportto the General Assembly Volume I ISBN 978-92-1-142291-7 e-ISBN 978-92-1-056501-1 (2014)

[10] D L Goldman Some Implications of Using IFR High-Transuranic Plutonium in a Prolifer-ant Nuclear Weapon Program Technical Report CONDU-94-0199 Lawrence Livermore NationalLaboratory (March 1994)

[11] P E Donald E Lutz PGampE solar plants in the desert Truth about energy (2007)

[12] Nuclear Energy Agency Projected costs of generating electricityhttpwwwieaorgtextbasenppdffree2005ElecCostPDF (2005)

[13] Nuclear Energy Agency Projected costs of generating electricityhttpwwwieaorgTextbasenpsumElecCost2010SUMpdf (2010)

[14] Mark Fischetti The human cost of energy Scientific American (September 2011)

[15] Uranium Information Center (UIC) The Economics of Nuclear Power Technical report AustralianUranium Association Melbourne (March 2008)

[16] European Commission Research team of the ExternE project serieshttpwwwexterneinfoteamhtml (2007)

[17] B W Heard B W Brook T M L Wigley and C J A Bradshaw Burden of proof A comprehensivereview of the feasibility of 100 renewable-electricity systems Renewable and Sustainable EnergyReviews 76 (2017) 1122ndash1133

[18] William H Hannum The technology of the integral fast reactor and its associated fuel cycle Progressin Nuclear Energy 31 1ndash2 (1997)

[19] George S Stanford Integral fast reactors Source of safe abundant non-polluting powerhttpwwwnationalcenterorgNPA378html

[20] Gerald E Marsh and George S Stanford Bombs reprocessing and reactor grade plutonium Forumon Physics amp Society of the American Physical Society Newsletter 35 2 (April 2006)httphttpwwwthesciencecouncilcomindexphpgeorge-stanford

[21] Charles Till Plentiful energy and the IFR story The Republic News and Issues Magazine (June-September 2005) httpwwwsustainablenuclearorgPADspad0509tillhtml

[22] The Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP) httpwwwgnepenergygov

[23] Vic Reis Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP) in American Nuclear Society meetingReno NV American Nuclear Society (5 June 2006)httpwwwsustainablenuclearorgPADspad0606reispdf

[24] Doug Lightfoot Wallace Manheimer Dan Meneley Duane Pendergast and George S Stanford NuclearFission Fuel Is Inexhaustible in Climate Change Technology Conference (10ndash12 May 2006)Ottawa Ontario Canada

Page 14 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

[25] George S Stanford LWR Recycle Necessity or Impediment in ldquoGlobal 2003rdquo ANS WinterMeeting New Orleans American Nuclear Society (16ndash20 November 2003)httpwwwnationalcenterorgLWRStanfordpdf

[26] Senators Richard Lugar and Even Bayh A nuclear fuel bank advocated Chicago Tribune (22 October2006)

[27] Gerald E Marsh and George S Stanford Yucca Mountain The Right DecisionhttpwwwnationalcenterorgNPA415html (June 2002)

[28] Steve Kirsch httpskirschcompoliticsglobalwarmingifrhtm Summary blog

[29] Janne Wallenius Ateranvandning av langlivat avfall och sluten branslecykel mojlig i nya reaktortyper(Reuse of long-lived waste and a closed fuel cycle possible in new reactor types) Nucleus (April 2007)15ndash19

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 15

Appendix ndash Fission product yields from light-water reactors

See httpenwikipediaorgwikiFission_product_yield Sorted by half life

Number Isotope decay path Mass per

fractiondagger and half life GWe-year Comment

28336 131I802dminusrarr 131Xe 3150 kg Reduced by 195times10minus14 per year ndash 06 ng after one year

554478 Various lt 1y 5411 kglowast Decay to stable products

03912 106Ru3736dminusrarr 106Rh 3519 kg

asymp 035 134Cs2065yminusrarr 134Ba 3980 kg Created in the reactor from 133Cs by neutron capture

22713 147Pm262yminusrarr 147Sm 2833 kg

00297 125Sb276yminusrarr 125Te 315 g

lt00330 155Eu476yminusrarr 155Gd 434 g Mostly destroyed by neutron capture in the reactor

02717 85Kr1078yminusrarr 85Rb 1960 kg Currently released to the atmosphere

lt00003 113mCd141yminusrarr 113mIn 288 g Mostly destroyed by neutron capture in the reactor

57518 90Sr289yminusrarr 90Y 4393 kg Principal medium-term radiation and heat source319hminusrarr 90Zr

60899 137Cs3008yminusrarr 137Ba 7080 kg Principal medium-term radiation and heat source

lt04203 151Sm90yminusrarr 151Eu 5385 kg Mostly destroyed by neutron capture in the reactor

1e18yminusrarr 147Pm 151Eu is essentially stable262yminusrarr 147Sm1e11yminusrarr 143Nd

60507 99Tc211kyminusrarr 99Ru 5083 kg Dominant radiation source among fission products in the

range of 104 rarr 106 years candidate for transmutation

to 100Tc1546sminusrarr 100Ru

00236 126Sn230kyminusrarr 126Sb 252 g1235dminusrarr 126Te

00508 79Se295kyminusrarr 79Br 341 g

62856 93Zr153myminusrarr 93Nb 4960 kg

lt63333 135Cs23myminusrarr 135Ba 7255 kg

01629 107Pd65myminusrarr 107Ag 1479 kg

06576 129I157myminusrarr 129Xe 7198 kg Candidate for transmutation to 130I

1236hminusrarr 130Xe

asymp 644 133Cs stable 7268 kg A few percent converted by neutron capture to 134Cs

lt10888 149Sm stable 1377 kg

lt00065 157Gd stable 8659 gdaggerThe number fraction is the fraction of the atoms of fission products that are the specified isotope notthe mass fraction The mass is computed by multiplying the number fraction by the atomic mass andnormalizing the total to one tonne per GWe-yearlowastAssumes average mass number of 115

Thermal neutron transmutation of 90Sr 137Cs 126Sn 79Se 93Zr 135Cs and 107Pd is not practical due tolow neutron absorption cross section at the neutron temperature in LWRs

Page 16 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

The amount of an isotope at a particular time can be calculated by solving the differential equation

dN(t)

dt= k minus ln 2

τN(t)

where N(t) is the amount at time t in years k is the production rate per year and τ is the half-life in yearsThe solution (assuming N(0) = 0) is

N(t) =τk

ln 2

(1minus 2minustτ

)

From this when t gtgt τ the amount of each radioactive fission product is exponentially asymptotic toa constant approximately τk ln 2 decay compensates for production The amount of these materials isproportional to the power capacity not the total amount of energy produced If stable decay products arecontinuously removed the size of the repository is roughly constant

The following table shows asymptotic fractions and asymptotic masses per GWe (not GWe-year) of shortand medium half-life fission products The fraction is measured in terms of the annual number of fissionproduct atoms which is twice the number of actinide atoms consumed

Asymptotic number fraction and mass per GWe

Isotope Fraction Mass kg Isotope Fraction Mass kg

137Cs3008yminusrarr 137Ba 2643 3072lowast 90Sr

289yminusrarr 90Y2671dminusrarr 90Zr 2398 1831

Various τ lt 1y 7999 lt7806dagger 147Pm262yminusrarr 147Sm 85852 1071

85Kr1078yminusrarr 85Rb 4226 3048Dagger 134Cs

2065yminusrarr 134Ba 1043 1185lowast

106Ru3736dminusrarr 106Rh 05773 5192 155Eu

476yminusrarr 155Gd 02266 2981125Sb

276yminusrarr 125Te 01183 1254 131I802dminusrarr 131Xe 00898 0998

lowastAssumes isotope separation of 133Cs 134Cs 135Cs and 137Cs Total caesium

accumulates at 220 kgGWe-yrdaggerThe unclassified components are assumed to have an average mass number of

115 and to have a one year half life Since they are a mixture of products with

half lives under one year the true asymptotic fraction and mass are lessDagger 85Kr is currently vented to the atmosphere

The total mass of these products exponentially approaches an asymptote of less than 5844 kg per GWeor 9934 tonnes for a 17 TWe economy If their decay products are continuously removed storage isnot a problem If not reprocessed they are diluted by their decay products and therefore their specificactivity declines sufficiently that they are not radioactively dangerous after 200ndash300 years but the volumeis proportional to kt not k In 200 years of a 17 TWe economy the amount is less than 250000 tonnes lessthan 130000 cubic yards or less than 44 feet deep on a football field Separating the streams according tohalf life reduces the 200-year stream by 85

For long-lived isotopes ie t ltlt τ on a human time scale decay does not compensate for productionApproximating 2minustτ = exp(minust ln 2τ) asymp 1minus t ln 2τ the solution is N(t) asymp kt as expected The amount ofthese fission products is in proportion to the total amount of energy produced not the power capacity

Long-lived isotopes accumulate at the rate of about 182 kg per GWe-year or about 309 tonnes per year fora 17 TWe economy 99Tc and 129I can be destroyed by transmutation but the others amounting to about124 kg per GWe-year are impractical to destroy by transmutation If other isotopes of caesium (about 147kg per GWe-year) are not separated from 135Cs the total long-term disposal stream increases to 271 kg perGWe-year (but its specific activity decreases) If stored for about 30 years before disposal about 35 kg perGWe-year of 137Cs will decay leaving about 235 kg per GWe-year or about 400 tonnes per year for a 17TWe economy if the resulting stable 137Ba were removed Surely disposal of 400 tonnes per year of theseisotopes would not be a problem

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 17

Value of one tonne of used LWR fuelseparated and reduced to metal

Value Radioactivity

Value $tonne (MevBq-s) Half life Heat

Substance Mass (gr) $gr of waste α β γ (years) Wgr238U 944100 0143 135006 42 0496 447times109

236U 3971 0143 568 45 0494 234times107

235U 7974 0143 1140 44 0657 704234U 225 0143 32 48 00532 245times105

237Np 503 0143 72 47 00294 214times106

242Pu 454 0143 65 48 00449 376times105

241Pu 111 0143 16 49 01485 1435240Pu 2302 0143 329 52 05424 656times103

239Pu 5025 0143 719 52 00516 241times104

238Pu 95 0143 14 55 00435 8774 156241Am 1084 0143 155 55 00595 432243Am 85 0143 12 53 00747 737244Cm 4 0143 1 58 00428 1811 244

Actinides 965933 0143 13812996Zr 798 305 2434 Stable94Zr 741 305 2260 Stable93Zr 718 305 2190 0010 00305 161times106

92Zr 639 305 1948 Stable91Zr 590 305 1799 Stable90Zr 391 305 1192 Stable

Fuel cladding 3877 305 1182299Tc for alloys 771 1000 7710 00846 weak 2111times105

90Sr 391 200 782 01958 29 09388Sr 350 200 700 Stable137Cs 377 200 754 0187 0479 3017 042135Cs 300 200 600 00757 0662 23times106

133Cs 1125 200 2250 Stable

Heat sources 2543 200 5086

Br 22 100 22 Stable

Mo 3345 0257 860 Stable

Ru 2177 4578 99663 Stable

Ag 76 200 152 Stable

Cd 108 200 216 Stable

Ba 2311 0560 1295 Stable

Tb 26 3000 78 Stable

Dy 14 500 7 Stable

Rh 467 50000 233500 Stable87Rb 365 1178 4300 00817 481times1010

123Te 485 139 675 gt 92times 1016

138La 1215 180 2187 00329 144 102times1011

144Nd 3488 220 7673 190 229times1015

115In 26 1000 26 01532 441times1014

(cont)

Page 18 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

Value of one tonne of used LWR fuelseparated and reduced to metal (cont)

Value Radioactivity

Value $tonne (MevBq-s) Half life Heat

Substance Mass (gr) $gr of waste α β γ (years) Wgr142Ce 2355 028 662 15 gt 50times 1016

152Gd 142 548 778 215 14times1015

147Sm 200 200 400 225 106times1011

148Sm 167 200 334 19323 70times1015

149Sm 24 200 5 Stable151Sm 88 200 17 00196 00216 90152Sm + 154Sm 419 200 838 Stable107Pd 1371 8294 113710 00093 01476 65times106

90Y 456 1000 4560 09336 weak 64 hr152Eu 035 6000 21 00831 0122 134154Eu 1095 6000 6570 0221 0123 8601155Eu 016 6000 9 0047 0087 4753

Other solid 19297 4785583H 00034 294117 1000 00156 1254He 289 173 5 Stable85Kr 308 200 616 0687 0514 1072

Xe 5332 170 9050 Stable

Gases 5643 10671

Total fission 32131 1600 513937

products

Not counted 1936

Total 1000000 065 652066

httpbrcgove-mailsAugust10Commercial Value of 1 Metric ton of used fuelpdf with radioac-tivity data from httpwwwnndcbnlgovchart

Actinides can be recycled as fuel

Zirconium from fuel pin alloys and cladding and fission products can be recycled into new fuel pin claddingand alloys

Some radioactive elements produce sufficient heat to be usable as energy sources for example in radioisotopethermal generators for space applications These would not be isotopically separated 90Sr is 53 of thetotal strontium in fission products so heat production for all strontium is 049 Wgr 137Cs is 21 of thetotal caesium in fission products so heat production for all caesium is 0088 Wgr

Technetium is valuable for alloying with rhenium and has medical applications

Gases would be separated first then actinides then highly radioactive products This would reduce the costof separating and reducing the stable and less radioactive products

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 19

Appendix ndash Fuel and waste cycles

Actinides

IFRReprocessing

PrimaryProcessing

Disposaland sale

NonradioactiveLong half lifemostly 135Cs and 93Zr30 kg per GWe-yr665 kg per GWe-yearwith all cesium

ContinuousReprocessing

584 tonnes per GWe

Medium andshort half life

1 Tonneper GWe-year

99Tc 13 kg129I 177 kg

per GWe-yr

Usedfuel

Usedfuel

Sale

Nonradioactive

20 tonnes per GWe-yr

Enrichment

Sale

Disposaland sale

Enrichment LWR andLWR reprocessing

eventually phased out

LWRLWR

Reprocessing

Depleted uraniumstorage

Plutonium

8-10 tonnesper GWestartup

IFR

Enriched uranium

Fis

sion

pro

duct

s1

Ton

ne p

er G

We-

yr

MinedUranium

Acceleratortransmutation

Unused fuel and fissionproducts for transmutation

1 tonneper GWe-yr

Page 20 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

Appendix ndash Partitioning and Transmutation

Medium- and long-lived fission products could in principle be destroyed by transmuting them to isotopesthat are stable or have short half lives which decay to stable isotopes

The following tablea shows that 99Tc 129I 93Zr 107Pd and 135Cs can be transmuted much faster thantheir natural decay (ie T Jtrans ltlt T J12) The radiotoxicity of 107Pd and 135Cs is so small it is not worth

the bother to transmute them 93Zr can be recycled into fuel pin cladding or fuel alloying If 99Tc and129I were destroyed there could be very few remaining objections to nuclear power For 90Sr and 137CsT Jtrans gtgt T J12 so transmuting them is not interesting They are biologically active but can simply be

stored for about six half lives (180 years) after which the remaining amounts (069 and 11 kgGWe-yr) canbe discarded or sold If they are initially deposited in ldquodeep geologicalrdquo storage the containment durationrequirement for the repositories is significantly shorter by a factor of 1500 than for used LWR fuel For 79Seand 126Sn T Jtrans ltlt T J12 but T Jtrans is not sufficiently small to be interesting Although the radiotoxicity

per gram of 126Sn and 79Se is large they are produced in such small amounts that their total radiotoxicityper GWe-yr is comparable to that of the others

Isotope J decay Radiotoxicity σJ(nγ) (barns) T Jtrans (years) Mass per Transmuted

mode and T J12 Svg SvGWe-yr Thermal Fast Thermal Fast GWe-yr decay mode

90Sr289yminusrarr 90Y 1411k 1664M 014 001 1600 2200 1179 kg 91Sr

963hminusrarr 91Y137Cs

3008yminusrarr 137Ba 4187k 1152M 002 001 11000 2200 2752 kg 138Cs3341mminusrarr 138Ba

99Tc211kyminusrarr 99Ru 04 8708 43 02 51 110 2177 kg 100Tc

1546sminusrarr 100Ru126Sn

230kyminusrarr 126Sb 4936 4019 005 0005 4400 4400 0814 kg 127Sn21hminusrarr 127Sb

79Se295kyminusrarr 79Br 7478 1271 01 003 2200 7300 0170 kg 80Se is stable

93Zr153myminusrarr 93Nb 0102 2097 028 003 790 730 2056 kg 94Zr is stable

135Cs23myminusrarr 135Ba 0085 1009 13 007 170 310 1187 kg 136Cs

1304dminusrarr 136Ba107Pd

65myminusrarr 107Ag 00007 8309 03 05 730 44 6922 kg 108Pd is stable129I

157myminusrarr 129Xe 0718 4921 43 014 51 160 8853 kg 130I1236hminusrarr 130Xe

T Jtrans is the transmutation half-time for isotope J

Amounts and radioactivity from ORIGEN 22 Radiotoxicity dose factors from ICRP publication 119

This graph from the Swedish Radiation Safety Authorityb[29]

0001

001

01

1

10

100Radiotoxic inventory [Svg]

102 103 104 105 106101

TRU

FP

Uranium in nature

t[y]

shows that most of the radiotoxicity of used nuclear fuel arisesfrom the transuranics which IFR would consume and thatthe radiotoxicity of fission products is below the radiotoxic-ity of uranium ore within 200-300 years Transmuting 99Tcand 129I would reduce the long-term tail of the fission productradiotoxicity from 300 years onward by 60 The ordinateis radiotoxicity per gram of the original fission products notthe remaining fission products at the time specified by the ab-scissa Fission products are stored together stable ones arenot continuously separated from radioactive ones

aData from httpusersictpit˜pub_offlectureslns005Number_2Slessarev_1pdfbhttpwwwstralsakerhetsmyndighetenseGlobalPublikationerTidskriftNucleus2007Nucleus-4-2007pdf

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 21

Appendix ndash Worldwide limitations of alternative energy sources

Details in httpwwwphysicsucsdedu~tmurphyphys239shu_energypdf by Dr Frank Shu

Solar photovoltaic

Solar photovoltaic could in principle supply 15 TWe enough to power the Earthrsquos entire current energyeconomy using about 02 of the land area of the Earth below 60 latitude

Wind

Land-based wind cannot supply more than about 18 TWe or about 12 of the current energy economy

Ocean currents

The Kuroshio current which flows northward in the western Pacific past Taiwan and Japan has a powerof about 100 GW Assuming 50 efficiency of extraction allows about 50 GWe to be extracted The gulfstream flows twice as fast producing eight times as much power allowing about 400 GWe to be extractedExtracting significant power from ocean currents anywhere in the world would have profound effects onclimate

Coastal ocean waves

Assuming 50 efficiency of energy extraction ocean waves impinging on all the shorelines of the Earth couldprovide about 024 TWe or about 16 of the current energy economy

Geothermal

Geothermal sources cannot provide more than about 04 TWe or about 27 of the current energy economy

Tides

Energy extractable from tidal sources amounts to about 3 GWe worldwide or about 002 of the currentenergy economy It is only economically feasible in bays such as the Bay of Fundy which concentrate tidesto heights of as much as 5 meters Damming such bays has effects on the resonant frequency of nearby baysand estuaries profoundly altering currents and tides in nearby areas

Hydroelectric

The Earthrsquos land area is 148times 1012 m2 Average rainfall is 12 meters per year Water density is 103 kgm3

Total rainfall is thus about 18times 1017 kg Dropping 100 meters releases 18times 1017 kgtimes 98 ms2 times 100 m =

176times 1020 joule Spread out over a year 315times 107 s gives 56 TW Assuming 90 efficiency yields 5 TWeThe total available is less perhaps 35 TWe if polar regions are excluded Hydroelectric installations observeabout 30 capacity factor yielding total worldwide availability of about 1 TWe-yryr or about 67 of thecurrent energy economy

Total

Excluding solar photovoltaic and ocean currents alternative electricity sources could yield about 3443 TWeworldwide or about 23 of the current energy economy

Page 22 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

Three Mile Island

Notwithstanding the hysteria of Jack Lemmon Jane Fonda and Michael Douglas in the movie ldquoThe ChinaSyndromerdquo nobody that is NOBODY was injured by the Three Mile Island accident It was a brilliantsuccess story of careful designa which has since been improved by lessons learned Insurers paid out only$70 million The owners spent a further $973 million on cleanup Nobody has died of a radiation-relatedaccident in the history of the US civilian nuclear electric power reactor programf or civilian nuclear electricpower reactor programs in any OECD or EU-27 country

Chernobyl

Chernobyl was an accident waiting to happen The reactor had an inadequate containment structure it wasan inherently unsafe designb (nobody plans to build another 3 GWth reactor out of charcoal and surround itwith a tin-foil containment shed) and the operators literally (but unintentionally) blew it up by bypassingsafety interlocks and already-inadequate shutdown mechanisms ironically in a rush to get a safety checkdone The 173-page report of the United Nations Scientific Committee for the Effects of Atomic Radiation(UNSCEAR)cd[8] concludes that

bull 134 plant workers and emergency workers suffered Acute Radiation Syndrome (ARS) from high dosesof radiation Two workers were killed by falling debris One died from coronary thrombosis

bull In the first few months after the accident 28 ARS victims died

bull Although another 19 ARS sufferers had died by 2006 those deaths had different causes not usuallyassociated with radiation exposure

bull Skin injuries and cataracts were among the most common consequences in ARS survivors

bull Although several hundred thousand people as well as the emergency workers were involved in recoveryoperations there is no consistent evidence of health effects that can be attributed to radiation exposureapart from indications of increased incidence of leukemia and of cataracts among those who receivedhigher doses

bull 6000 cases of thyroid cancer were reported between 1991 and 2005 in affected areas It is not possibleto state scientifically that radiation caused a particular cancer in a particular individual By 2005only fifteen of those cases had been fatal

bull Radiation doses to the general public in the three most affected countries (Ukraine Belarus Russia)were relatively low and most residents ldquoneed not live in fear of serious health consequencesrdquo In themost affected areas the average additional dose over the period 1986-2005 is approximately equivalentto that of one computed tomography scan

bull There is no ongoing increased risk of solid tumors or blood cancers

The World Nuclear Association attributes 30 deaths to the accidente ldquoTragic as those deaths were theypale in comparison to the more than 5000 coal-mining deaths worldwide every yearrdquo says Mooref

ahttpwwwworld-nuclearorginfoinf36htmlbThe Soviet RBMK reactor design is based upon the design of a military reactor which was in turn based upon de-

sign documents for the US Hanford reactors stolen from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory before the Hanford reactorswere built optimized for production of plutonium for weapons purposes scaled up for civilian nuclear power production(httpwwwworld-nuclearorginfoinf31html)

chttpwwwunscearorgunscearenchernobylhtmldhttpwwwunisunviennaorgunisenpressrels2011unisinf398htmlehttpwwwworld-nuclearorginfoSafety-and-SecuritySafety-of-PlantsChernobyl-Accident ndash see Appendix 1

Sequence of eventsfhttpwwwwashingtonpostcomwp-dyncontentarticle20060414AR2006041401209html

Page 6 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

More to the point Chernobyl was a steam explosion followed by a hydrogen explosiona followed by agraphite fire Although a test reactor at Idaho National Laboratory was intentionally destroyed by promptcriticalityb it is impossible for a municipal nuclear reactor licensed in an OECD or EU-27 country to generatea nuclear explosion IFR being liquid-metal cooled has no water in the core and is not graphite moderatedA steam explosion a hydrogen explosion or a graphite fire is impossible in the core of an IFR

Fukushima

Despite widespread hysteria a reportc from the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of AtomicRadiation (UNSCEAR) presented to the UN General Assembly in October 2013 [9] shows that nobody waskilled injured or made ill by the destruction of the reactors at Fukushima by the earthquake and tsunamiand nobody will be

From Page 9 section 2 ldquoDose Assessmentrdquo para 29 ldquoThe Japanese people receive an effective dose of radiationfrom naturally occurring sources of on average about 21 millisieverts (mSv) annually and a total of about170 mSv over their lifetimesrdquo

From page 11 section 3 ldquoHealth Implicationsrdquo para 38 ldquoNo radiation-related deaths or acute diseases have beenobserved among the workers and general public exposed to radiation from the accidentrdquo

para 40 ldquoFor adults in Fukushima Prefecture the Committee estimates [the increase in] average lifetime effectivedoses to be of the order of 10 mSv or less a discernible increase in cancer incidence in this populationthat could be attributed to radiation exposure from the accident is not expectedrdquo

For comparison the dose from an abdominal and pelvic CT scan repeated with and without contrast wouldbe about 30 mSv or about ten yearsrsquo worth of average normal background radiation This increases lifetimecancer risk from 1 in 5 to 1005 in 5 Yearly dose on the Tibetan plateau is 13-20 mSv In areas of monazitedeposits in Brazil and India doses exceed 36 mSvyear

Nuclear power reactor waste

Foremost among the benefits of IFR beyond enhanced inherent safety the amount of waste is a factor of 20less than the amount produced by LWRs Most IFR waste is dangerously radioactive for five years and theremainder for a few hundred years instead of a few hundred thousand years [1]

The 2000 tons of used fuel removed from US LWRs per year are currently considered waste but are actuallya valuable resource because only 5 of their energy content has been extracted

Used fuel has a density of about 11 gramscm3 or about 8 tonsyd3 As of 2006 total US commercial fueldischarges amounted to about 59160 tonnesd or about 7400 cubic yards of accumulated ldquowasterdquo This isalready enough for 8ndash10 Yucca Mountains If piled on a 3000 square yard football field it would be 74feet deep (but it would melt) The 100000000 tons of eternally-toxic solid wastee from operation of UScoal-fired power plants in 2006 alone would be about 74000 feet or about 14 miles deepf amounting to 740miles in fifty years

aSteam reacted with zirconium fuel pin cladding to produce hydrogenbNuclear fission produces two populations of neutrons those emitted within about ten nanoseconds (prompt neutrons) and

those emitted up to several seconds later (delayed neutrons) If critical neutron flux arises from prompt neutrons it is notpossible to control the reaction

chttpwwwunscearorgdocsGAreportsA-68-46_e_V1385727pdfdhttpwwweiadoegovcneafnuclearspent_fuelussnfdatahtml reports LWR waste of 42750 tonnes through 2002

httpwwweiadoegovemeuaertxtstb0902xls reports 631 GWe-yr nuclear production 2003ndash2009 and 16 TWe-yr from1957ndash2002 Assuming the same 26718 tonnesTWe-yr 1957ndash2002 rate for 2003ndash2009 gives 16860 additional tonnes

eAccording to httpwwwornlgovinfoornlreviewrev26-34textcolmainhtml there is 163 times more energy inthe waste from coal-fired power plants than in the coal that was burned 47 tonnes of uranium and 116 tonnes of thorium perGWe-yr about 0036 of a coal-fired power plantrsquos solid waste Power plants account for only 74 of coal combustion

fAccording to httpwwwtfhrcgovhnr20recyclewastecbabs1htm density is 10125ndash135 tonsyd3

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 7

In addition to the 5-used-fuel ldquowasterdquo there are about 900000 tons of depleted-uranium ldquowasterdquo left overfrom the enrichment process containing more than 90 of the energy in the uranium that was mined

The rate at which waste generates heat is a more important factor than its volume With transuranicspresent ndash as in what we currently call ldquowasterdquo ndash the long-term capacity of a repository is determined by theheat those transuranics will generate millennia hence With them removed the primary determining factorbecomes heat generated by 137Cs and 90Sr With transuranics removed but 137Cs and 90Sr remaining thecapacity of a repository is increased by a factor of about five compared to the current technology With only137Cs and 90Sr remaining the capacity is enormously increased [1]

A reactor (IFR or otherwise) produces about 1 tonne of fission products per GWe-year The current USLWR fleet produces about 90 GWe-year per year thereby generating about 90 tonnes of fission productsper year about 5 of the total ldquowasterdquo or about 300 milligrams per American Radioactive 137Cs and90Sr amount to about 39 kg per GWe-year Not all isotopes of caesium and strontium are radioactive andisotopic separation is costly so it makes more sense to consider total caesium and strontium fission productswhich amount to 92 kgGWe-year about 83 Tonnesyr or about 24 milligrams per American per year Ifall those fission products within the 59160 tonnes of ldquowasterdquo accumulated from 1957 until 2006 were spreadon a football field the pile would be about 044 inches deep A pile of all fission products including thosethat are nonradioactive or have very short half lives would be 48 inches deep (but it would melt)

If the current American supply of LWRs were replaced by IFRs the stream of ldquowasterdquo would be reduced from1818 to 90 tonnes per year and if left mixed instead of separated those 90 tonnes would be less radiotoxicthan mined uranium before 200ndash300 years instead of 300000 years as for LWR ldquowasterdquo

The nonradioactive short-lived and long-lived fission products could be separated Strontium and caesiumconstitute 9 of fission products 6 of fission products (99Tc and 129I) have very long half lives but canbe transmuted to short-lived isotopes (1546 seconds and 1236 hours) by neutron absorption within thereactor thereby effectively destroying them 93Zr another 2 of fission products can be recycled into fuelpin cladding or alloying (where it doesnrsquot matter that itrsquos radioactive and the radioactivity is low-energybeta ndash electron ndash emission anyway) The remaining 89 are less radiotoxic than mined uranium before five toten years The stream requiring long-term storage (strontium and caesium) would thereby be substantiallyreduced to about 92 kgGWe-yr The specific activity (heat generation per kilogram) of the remainderwould be reduced Other fission products (primarily 137Cs and 90Sr) could in principle be destroyed byneutron transmutation but it takes longer than their normal decay Even if they are simply stored howevertheir specific activity is so low that storage is not a significant problem At an average of $16 milliontonne(some much higher) the appreciable commercial value of many fission productsa reduces the storage problemeven further

If all current US electric power generating capacity were replaced with IFR the stream of fission productswould amount to 450 tonnes per year of which 41 tonnes require long-term custody This is less than onequarter the quantity of 5-used fuel that is generated by the LWRs that supply about 20 of our presentelectric power needs

A 17 TWe energy economy powered by IFRs would produce 1700 tonnes of fission products per year orabout 65 less than the 1818 tonnes of 5-used fuel removed from the LWRs that currently supply onlyabout 53 of our energy needs Long-lived fission products (mostly 93Zr and 135Cs) amount to about 131kg per GWe-year or 223 tonnes (730 milligrams per American) altogether per year 93Zr could be recycledinto fuel-pins so it neednrsquot be stored 93Zr and 135Cs would occupy about 121 yd3 or about 14 inch ifspread on a football field They have such low specific activity that they are not considered to be dangerousIf 133Cs (stable) 134Cs (2065y) and 137Cs (3008y) are not removed the amount is 269 yd3 per year

Fission products with half-lives less than thirty years are less radiotoxic than mined natural uranium before200ndash300 years so custody is simple for them Production and radioactive decay offset each other expo-nentially approaching an asymptote of about 584 tonnes of radioactive material per GWe (not GWe-year)If stable decay products are continuously removed a constant capacity is needed for radioactive materialstorage preferably co-located with each IFR

That is storage and disposal are not problems and therefore IFR waste is not a problem

ahttpbrcgove-mailsAugust10Commercial Value of 1 Metric ton of used fuelpdf

Page 8 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

Refer to the appendices for more details

Availability of nuclear fuel

For LWRs the concentration of 235U the fissile isotope is typically enriched from the natural 071 toabout 42 leaving behind a supply of uranium depleted in 235U that is about 57 times the amount ofldquoreactor graderdquo enriched uranium Combining this and the 4-5 fuel efficiency of LWR we extract lessthan 06 of the energy in mined uranium In a reactor some of the 238U is transmuted into 239Pu andother transuranics which are directly usable as IFR fuel In an IFR energy economy once started thosetransuranics rather than 235U provide much of the fission energy and the neutrons needed to transmute 238Uinto more transuranics That is (a) enrichment is not necessary and (b) the currently left-behind depleteduranium is valuable as future fuel

Using a rule of thumb that fissioning 09 kg of actinides yields 1 GWth-day of energy and generating 1 GWerequires 3 GWth to be expended 1 GWe-yr requires 36525 times 3 times 09 = 981 kg asymp 1 tonne of actinides tobe converted to fission products If mined uranium were used to 100 capacity instead of 06 total USpower demand of about 1700 GWe would require about 1700 tonnes of new uranium per year

IFRs could use the current US supply of LWR ldquowasterdquo a substance of which we are desperately eager tobe rid as fuel If nothing is done other than to build an IFR to replace each LWR as it reaches the endof its useful lifea about 50 tonnes of start-up fuel per IFR plus one tonne per year of make-up uraniumthereafterb would be needed That is assuming there are 900000 tonnes of LWR ldquowasterdquo on hand (usedfuel plus depleted uranium) there is enough fuel from that alone for about 10000 years without miningmilling refining or enriching any new uranium

If all current US electric generating capacity were replaced with IFRs about 450 tonnes of makeup fuelwould be needed per year that is there is enough fuel for about 2000 years If the entire energy economywere powered by IFR about 1700 tonnes per year would be needed that is there is enough fuel from currentLWR ldquowasterdquo alone for almost 530 years Is it really ldquowasterdquo

Uranium is four times more common than tin and ten times more common than silver Currently knownreserves of uranium in ore of current commercial grade contain about five million tonnes of the metalc Thatis enough for about 4300 years if used in 90 GWe capacity of US LWRs or about 4800 years if all 1700GWe US power demand were supplied by IFRs Current total worldwide energy demand is about fourtimes US energy demand so if the entire world were to be powered by IFRs at current demand there isenough uranium counting only known reserves profitably recoverable at $138kgU for about 1200 years

The picture isnrsquot so bleak however because the efficiency of use of uranium by IFRs means the fuel costper kWh would be the same as for LWRs at $1380006 asymp $23000kgU or about 0001centkWh This makesit economically feasible to use lower grade ores or more importantly to extract uranium from seawaterwhere there is estimated to be about 45 billion tonnes this is enough for more than a million years ofcurrent worldwide energy demand Even this however is a substantial under-estimate because uraniumis continuously flowing into the oceans from rivers That is uranium alone is an essentially inexhaustibleresource Thorium which could in principle serve as fertile future fuel is four times more common thanuranium so even without river inflow all current worldwide power needs could be supplied for about fivemillion years using nuclear fission Nuclear fission is an effectively inexhaustible energy resource

Weapons proliferation

The ldquoIntegralrdquo in IFR means that the entire system including fuel reprocessing is integrated in one facilityActinides go into an IFR none come out except to start a new IFR Opportunities for theft of partly-used

aWe wouldnrsquot replace LWRs prematurely because the IFR system functions symbiotically with the current fuel cyclebIFR fuel has to be asymp 20 fissile (mainly PU-239) and 80 fertile (U-238) Once an IFR has been loaded it can generate its

own fissile material from fertile material so all it would need to keep running is one tonne of unenriched uranium per GWe-yearc httpwwwworld-nuclearorginfoinf75html

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 9

fuel would be reduced because it would not be transported to a separate facility for processing

Unlike LWRs an IFR power economy once started does not need its uranium fuel to be enriched in 235UThis means that it is not necessary to have any facility to enrich uranium for other than military purposesA reactor owner does need however either ironclad international guarantees of assured fuel supply or theability to reprocess partly used fuel

The ability to reprocess fuel implies the presence of a cadre of professionals who are familiar with most of thetechniques for making weapons-grade materials The mixture of actinides taken out of IFR for reprocessingpresents more difficult radiation thermal chemical and metallurgical problems to would-be weaponeersthan those taken from LWR It is unsuitable for direct use in weapons primarily because of the presenceof 243Am 241Pu and non-fissionable 238Pu 240Pu and 242Pu but is admirably suited as IFR fuel 241Puemits 50 times more heat 5000 times more neutrons and 100 times more gamma radiation than 239PuThis could damage a weapon or cause predetonation and makes maintenance of fine mechanical tolerancesdifficult Expensive remote assembly is mandatory Separating 239Pu from nearby isotopes is more difficultthan separating 238U from 235U first because the mass difference is smaller and second because synthesizingthe gaseous compound PuF6 needed for centrifugal or gas diffusion isotope separation is difficult Eventhough the problem of extracting weapons-grade materials from LWR is easier than for IFR nobody hasdone so Every nuclear weapons program has depended upon enriched uranium or upon purpose-builtreactors optimized to produce 239Pu and these have been nation-scale projects not backyard garage-scaleprojects that a terrorist cell might successfully undertake The simple conclusion is that used LWR fuel isjust about the most difficult material from which to produce nuclear weapons [3] A Lawrence LivermoreNational Laboratory study [10] concluded that spent IFR fuel cannot be used to make a nuclear weaponwithout significant further processing

Even if the difficulties of producing weapons from used reactor fuel could be overcome IFR presents nonew problems of weapons proliferation because reprocessing and enrichment are not substantially differentfrom the standpoint of international oversight No countryrsquos desire or ability to produce nuclear weaponshas ever been affected by any other countryrsquos decision to reprocess or not to reprocess used municipalreactor fuel Every advanced industrial country could in principle produce nuclear weapons independentlyof any other countryrsquos decision to reprocess or not to reprocess used municipal reactor fuel If a countrycannot be trusted with this technology do not sell reactors or fuel reprocessing systems to them The samelong-distance transmission that would be required for solar power would serve their needs

Costs

GE estimates their version of IFR known as S-PRISMa can be built for about $15-2W or $22W after a90 capacity factor is incorporated [11] A GEHitachi consortium estimates they could produce IFR for$12-14W [3] The Diablo Canyon generating station produces electricity for 5cent per kWh The Palo Verdestation was constructed for $179W and produces electricity for 43cent per kWh

T Boone Pickens proposed to build a 4 GWe wind farm The estimated cost ballooned to $3W or $15Wafter incorporating a 21 capacity factor [3] The project was abandoned The Sacramento Municipal UtilityDistrict (SMUD) reports a 15 capacity factor for solar photovoltaic ldquoNo system with capacity factors thislow is a viable energy producing systemrdquo [11] After incorporating these capacity factors the effectiveconstruction costs increase to $4000-$8500kWe for wind and $16000-$60000kWe for solar SMUDestimates a 69-year financial payback for solar photovoltaicb Because wind and solar are diffuse sources$11-13 trillion would be needed for grid upgrades [3] adding another $750kWe to the construction costBecause they are diffuse and erratic sources additional costs for storage would be necessary

In 2017 the lowest-price solar cells cost $180 per peak watt With 15 capacity factor this is $12 peraverage watt Amortized over 25 years at 5 and deducting the four-plus year energy payback capital costalone is 117cent per kWh (181cent at 10) The GVEA 40 battery in Fairbanks Alaska is the largest utility-scale

aSuper Power Reactor Inherently Safe ModularbLifetime is only 30ndash40 years See httpwwwostigovbridgeservletspurl755637-oDWEJRwebviewable755637pdf

or httpwwwglobalspeccomLearnMoreOptics_Optical_ComponentsOptoelectronicsPhotovoltaic_Cells

Page 10 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

storage battery It weighs 1200 tonnes provides 10 MWh storage and cost $350Wh Amortized over fiveyears this is 57centkWha To have constant output the panel capacity needs to be twice the demand ndash halffor immediate use and half to charge batteries so the capital cost for cells plus storage is 291cent per kWhThis does not include mounting transportation operation maintenance land recycling or grid upgradesThe equation used to calculate amortized cost is

A(n) = rA(nminus 1)minus p

where A(0) is the initial cost per watt and A(n) is the amount remaining to be paid after n payments ofp dollars at an interest rate of 100(r minus 1) per payment period Solving this equation for A(n) settingA(n) = 0 and solving for p gives

p = A(0) rnr minus 1

rn minus 1

The cost per watt hour is pH where H is hours per payment period If the payment period is one yearand power is provided continuously H is 8766 (36525times24) Because solar panels have a 45 year energypayback period the final value needs to be multiplied by n(nminus 45) where n is years

The following table compares construction costs for eight renewable sources [3] Costs are per peak kWenot average kWe The capacity factor is not included

Cost Cost Cost CostSource $kWe Source $kWe Source $kWe Source $kWeWind (onshore) 800 Wind (offshore) 1700 Hydro 2000 Geothermal 2100Biomass 2300 Solar (thermal) 2400 Tidal 2800 Solar (PV) 5900

The following table compares operating and construction costs for six electric power technologies [3] [12][13] External grid upgrade and storage costs are not included Since 1981 nuclear power utilities havebeen paying 01centkWh into the Federal Nuclear Waste Fund so LWR decommissioning and ldquowasterdquo handlingcosts are included as internal costs

Operating Average Effective FederalCost Construction Capacity Construction Life Delivered Subsidy

Fuel centkWh Cost $kWe Factor Cost $kWedagger (yrs) centkWhDagger centkWhlowast

LWR Nuclear 49 1000-2000 gt 90 1111-2222 50 515ndash541 0210Coal 60-63 1000-1500 gt 90 1111-1667 50 625ndash668 0056Hydro 40-80 2000 asymp 33 6000 100 469ndash869 0136Gas 76-92 400-800 gt 90 444-888 30 777ndash954 0060Wind 49-100 1000-2000 asymp 21 4762-9524 20 762ndash1543 3533Solar PV 150-300 6000-9000 asymp 15 40000-60000 30 3021ndash5282 23131daggerConstruction cost capacity factorDaggerOperating cost + construction cost ( capacity factor times lifetime ) Amortization not includedlowasthttpwwweiagovanalysisrequestssubsidy tables ES4 and ES5 for 2013

Particulate emissions alone from coal-fired power plants cost $165 billion [3] and cause 30100 prematuredeaths 603000 asthma attacks and 5130000 lost work days per year in the United States alone [14]

Nuclear power has the lowest delivered costs in ten of twelve countries studied [15] (India China and Russiawere not included) The two that did not have the lowest costs were the United States and Korea Thereport did not address the significant costs in the United States of protracted litigation and continuouslyrevised regulations and slow licensing of individual reactors It would be helpful if the Nuclear RegulatoryCommission were to adopt the French system of licensing reactor designs instead of individual reactors IFRs

aProf Nate Lewis in a private seminar Where will we get our energy at Caltech Jet Propulsion Laboratory estimated40-50centkWh

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 11

would be less expensive to build and operate than current technology because they are simpler standardizeddesigns instead of complicated one-off designs [3] The system is further substantially simplified because thecoolant operates at atmospheric pressure instead of 160 atmospheres and it absorbs essentially all neutronsthat escape the core so special alloys and over-designing are not needed to compensate for containmentvessel embrittlement caused by neutron damage and there are much fewer radioactive structural neutronactivation products

When external costs are included nuclear costs are estimated [16] to be about one tenth as much as coalCO2 emissions are explicitly excluded from costs of fossil-fuel systems Nuclear utilities have been paying01centkWh into the Federal Waste Disposal Fund since 1981 for used nuclear fuel disposal and reactor decom-missioning these costs are included as internal costs for LWR The radiological cost of mining is includedbut for IFR that would be irrelevant since there is already enough uranium above ground for several cen-turies For IFR fuel would be cheaper than free for a few hundred years because it would consume the LWRldquowasterdquo of which we are desperately eager to be rid and disposal of IFR waste would be far less expensivethan disposal of 5-used LWR fuel so IFR must have much lower than one tenth the operating cost of coal

The United States has already invested $8 Billion in the Yucca Mountain repository It is estimated to cost$436 Billion to complete [3] and current waste would require about 8-10 times more capacity than YuccaMountain would have at completion IFR would make Yucca Mountain irrelevant and is even more importantnow that the Obama administration has canceled Yucca Mountain Why is the Nevada Congressionaldelegation not insisting that the IFR demonstration project be restarted

Tony Blairrsquos government commissioned a study by Sir Nicholas Stern former vice president and chiefeconomist for the World Bank He recommended committing 1 of global GDP to reduce CO2 emissions to25-70 below current levels by mid century and that increased extreme weather costs alone could reach1 of GDP [3] For the United States that amount of todayrsquos GDP would be $290 billion per year In thenext section we estimate that producing an energy economy entirely powered by IFR could be accomplishedin fewer than 65 years Spending $290 billion per year on CO2 remediation during that interval would cost$188 trillion (in todayrsquos dollars) At $22BGWe for IFR 17 TWe would cost $374 trilliona ndash 20 asmuch ndash and would essentially eliminate CO2 emissions not reduce them by 25-70

What can be done

As admirable as they are conservation biofuels wind geothermal tides waves ocean currents and hydroalone or together cannot power any economy nor can they destroy the 59160 tonnes of ldquowasterdquo from thefirst 53 years of US LWR operations and more accumulated since 2006 Wind and solar are much moreexpensive than IFR There are no good hydro sites that have been exploited A 2017 study [17] concludedthat a 100 renewable-electricity system might not be physically feasible let alone economically viableCoal is terrible (and more expensive as well) Natural gas is more benign than coal but still produces CO2Oil produces CO2 and importing it and protecting access to overseas sources is expensive in both blood andnational treasure Solar is much more expensive than IFR and wouldnrsquot destroy waste That leaves IFR asthe only alternative that is both sufficient and economically viable

There are no serious plans for electric airplanes ships or heavy construction or farm equipment so someliquid hydrocarbon fuels will be needed for the foreseeable future Hydrogen is at present a nonstarterbecause of the storage problem Fortunately we know how to make hydrocarbon fuels from energy + water+ CO2b Using such fuels or hydrogen if the storage problem is solved (or maybe boron [3]) it is possibletherefore to convert the entire US energy economy to electricity provided mostly by IFR with hydrowind solar geothermal or biofuels where appropriate

The current US economy could be powered by about 17 TWe Each 1 GWe reactor needs 8ndash10 tonnesof startup fissile material which would at first largely be actinides from used LWR fuel and plutoniumand enriched uranium from decommissioned weapons The current US inventory of fissionable actinides is

aGEHitachi estimates $21-24 trillion ndash 11-13 of $188 trillionbThe Fischer-Tropsch process

Page 12 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

about 900 tonnes plus about 225 tonnes of weapons-grade 235Ua or enough to start up only about 110-140GWe of capacity using IFR With breeding that IFR fleet could have a sustained growth rate of 5 per yearor maybe more After startup the deployment rate would gradually accelerate from 5ndash7 per year helpedalong by actinides from still-operating LWRs and reach the desired 17 TWe goal within about 40ndash50 yearsor sooner to the extent renewable sources are appropriate or if uranium enrichment is continued

A single complete and permanent solution to all energy pollution nuclear waste and CO2 emission problemsis within our grasp All obstacles to that solution are political abetted and perpetuated by ignoranceintentional falsehoods irrational hysteria and opportunistic demagoguery not scientific technological orengineering problems Competition for energy resources is frequently blamed for wars IFR would eliminatethat excuse

Fast breeder reactors with fuel recycling will be developed There is no credible alternative There is an 800MWe reactor in service in Russiab and a 1200 MWe reactor is under development China has contractedto buy a BN-800 reactor from Russia South Korea has announced a 400 GWe fast-neutron reactor will beavailable for sale in 2020 India is building a prototype fast-neutron reactor to exploit their vast reservesof thorium China and Japan are making progress on their own designs American experts are retiring ordying far faster then younger ones are being prepared The United States will soon be a third-world countryin energy technology

Should the United States spend $188 trillion on CO2 reduction and mitigation $1075 trillion on coal sootdamage $68ndash102 trillion on solar cells $25 trillion on wind turbines $475 trillion on grid upgrades ndash about$130minus170 trillion altogether (and none of those would destroy one gram of nuclear waste) and suffer 2million unnecessary deaths due to coal emissions or spend $24 trillion on IFR (and render all nuclear wasteharmless)

For me the answer is obvious There is no time to waste We really ought to get started

Acknowledgment

This work benefited substantially from constructive criticism by the late Dr George S Stanford

Further reading

[1] Charles E Till and Yoon Il Chang Plentiful energy (2011) ISBN 978-1466384606

[2] William H Hannum Gerald E Marsh and George S Stanford Smarter use of nuclear waste ScientificAmerican (December 2005)httpswwwscientificamericancomarticlesmarter-use-of-nuclear-waste

[3] Tom Blees Prescription For The Planet The painless remedy for our energy and environmental crises(2008) ISBN 1-4196-5582-5 Impressive technical content plus off-putting gratuitous political insultsand nutty ideas about UN control of world energy

[4] D C Wade and Y I Chang The Integral Fast Reactor Physics of operation and safety NuclearScience and Engineering 100 4 (December 1988) 507ndash524

[5] Matthew D Eisaman Keshav Parajuly Alexander Tuganov Craig Eldershaw Noring Chang andKarl A Littau CO2 extraction from seawater using bipolar membrane electrodialysis Energy amp En-vironmental Science 5 6 (May 2012)

[6] National Renewable Energy Laboratory Land-use requirements of modern wind power plants in theUnited States httpwwwnrelgovdocsfy09osti45834pdf (2009)

a141 of LWR waste (httpwwwwhatisnuclearcomarticleswastehtmlcomposition) plus military inventory of 45tonnes 239Pu and 225 tonnes 235U (httpdsp-psdpwgscgccaCollection-RLoPBdPBPbp461-ehtm)

bhttpsenwikipediaorgwikiBN-800_reactor

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 13

[7] David Baurac Passively safe reactors rely on nature to keep them coolhttpwwwneanlgovAbouthnlogos-winter02-psrshtml (Winter 2002)

[8] United Nations Scientific Committee for the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) Scientific AnnexD Health effects due to radiation from the Chernobyl accident in Sources and Effects of IonizingRadiation 2008 Report to the General Assembly Volume II ISBN-13 978-92-1-142280-1 (2011)

[9] United Nations Scientific Committee for the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) Chapter IIIScientific Findings Part A Levels and effects of radiation exposure due to the nuclear accident afterthe great east-Japan earthquake and tsunami in Sources and Effects of Ionizing Radiation 2013 Reportto the General Assembly Volume I ISBN 978-92-1-142291-7 e-ISBN 978-92-1-056501-1 (2014)

[10] D L Goldman Some Implications of Using IFR High-Transuranic Plutonium in a Prolifer-ant Nuclear Weapon Program Technical Report CONDU-94-0199 Lawrence Livermore NationalLaboratory (March 1994)

[11] P E Donald E Lutz PGampE solar plants in the desert Truth about energy (2007)

[12] Nuclear Energy Agency Projected costs of generating electricityhttpwwwieaorgtextbasenppdffree2005ElecCostPDF (2005)

[13] Nuclear Energy Agency Projected costs of generating electricityhttpwwwieaorgTextbasenpsumElecCost2010SUMpdf (2010)

[14] Mark Fischetti The human cost of energy Scientific American (September 2011)

[15] Uranium Information Center (UIC) The Economics of Nuclear Power Technical report AustralianUranium Association Melbourne (March 2008)

[16] European Commission Research team of the ExternE project serieshttpwwwexterneinfoteamhtml (2007)

[17] B W Heard B W Brook T M L Wigley and C J A Bradshaw Burden of proof A comprehensivereview of the feasibility of 100 renewable-electricity systems Renewable and Sustainable EnergyReviews 76 (2017) 1122ndash1133

[18] William H Hannum The technology of the integral fast reactor and its associated fuel cycle Progressin Nuclear Energy 31 1ndash2 (1997)

[19] George S Stanford Integral fast reactors Source of safe abundant non-polluting powerhttpwwwnationalcenterorgNPA378html

[20] Gerald E Marsh and George S Stanford Bombs reprocessing and reactor grade plutonium Forumon Physics amp Society of the American Physical Society Newsletter 35 2 (April 2006)httphttpwwwthesciencecouncilcomindexphpgeorge-stanford

[21] Charles Till Plentiful energy and the IFR story The Republic News and Issues Magazine (June-September 2005) httpwwwsustainablenuclearorgPADspad0509tillhtml

[22] The Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP) httpwwwgnepenergygov

[23] Vic Reis Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP) in American Nuclear Society meetingReno NV American Nuclear Society (5 June 2006)httpwwwsustainablenuclearorgPADspad0606reispdf

[24] Doug Lightfoot Wallace Manheimer Dan Meneley Duane Pendergast and George S Stanford NuclearFission Fuel Is Inexhaustible in Climate Change Technology Conference (10ndash12 May 2006)Ottawa Ontario Canada

Page 14 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

[25] George S Stanford LWR Recycle Necessity or Impediment in ldquoGlobal 2003rdquo ANS WinterMeeting New Orleans American Nuclear Society (16ndash20 November 2003)httpwwwnationalcenterorgLWRStanfordpdf

[26] Senators Richard Lugar and Even Bayh A nuclear fuel bank advocated Chicago Tribune (22 October2006)

[27] Gerald E Marsh and George S Stanford Yucca Mountain The Right DecisionhttpwwwnationalcenterorgNPA415html (June 2002)

[28] Steve Kirsch httpskirschcompoliticsglobalwarmingifrhtm Summary blog

[29] Janne Wallenius Ateranvandning av langlivat avfall och sluten branslecykel mojlig i nya reaktortyper(Reuse of long-lived waste and a closed fuel cycle possible in new reactor types) Nucleus (April 2007)15ndash19

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 15

Appendix ndash Fission product yields from light-water reactors

See httpenwikipediaorgwikiFission_product_yield Sorted by half life

Number Isotope decay path Mass per

fractiondagger and half life GWe-year Comment

28336 131I802dminusrarr 131Xe 3150 kg Reduced by 195times10minus14 per year ndash 06 ng after one year

554478 Various lt 1y 5411 kglowast Decay to stable products

03912 106Ru3736dminusrarr 106Rh 3519 kg

asymp 035 134Cs2065yminusrarr 134Ba 3980 kg Created in the reactor from 133Cs by neutron capture

22713 147Pm262yminusrarr 147Sm 2833 kg

00297 125Sb276yminusrarr 125Te 315 g

lt00330 155Eu476yminusrarr 155Gd 434 g Mostly destroyed by neutron capture in the reactor

02717 85Kr1078yminusrarr 85Rb 1960 kg Currently released to the atmosphere

lt00003 113mCd141yminusrarr 113mIn 288 g Mostly destroyed by neutron capture in the reactor

57518 90Sr289yminusrarr 90Y 4393 kg Principal medium-term radiation and heat source319hminusrarr 90Zr

60899 137Cs3008yminusrarr 137Ba 7080 kg Principal medium-term radiation and heat source

lt04203 151Sm90yminusrarr 151Eu 5385 kg Mostly destroyed by neutron capture in the reactor

1e18yminusrarr 147Pm 151Eu is essentially stable262yminusrarr 147Sm1e11yminusrarr 143Nd

60507 99Tc211kyminusrarr 99Ru 5083 kg Dominant radiation source among fission products in the

range of 104 rarr 106 years candidate for transmutation

to 100Tc1546sminusrarr 100Ru

00236 126Sn230kyminusrarr 126Sb 252 g1235dminusrarr 126Te

00508 79Se295kyminusrarr 79Br 341 g

62856 93Zr153myminusrarr 93Nb 4960 kg

lt63333 135Cs23myminusrarr 135Ba 7255 kg

01629 107Pd65myminusrarr 107Ag 1479 kg

06576 129I157myminusrarr 129Xe 7198 kg Candidate for transmutation to 130I

1236hminusrarr 130Xe

asymp 644 133Cs stable 7268 kg A few percent converted by neutron capture to 134Cs

lt10888 149Sm stable 1377 kg

lt00065 157Gd stable 8659 gdaggerThe number fraction is the fraction of the atoms of fission products that are the specified isotope notthe mass fraction The mass is computed by multiplying the number fraction by the atomic mass andnormalizing the total to one tonne per GWe-yearlowastAssumes average mass number of 115

Thermal neutron transmutation of 90Sr 137Cs 126Sn 79Se 93Zr 135Cs and 107Pd is not practical due tolow neutron absorption cross section at the neutron temperature in LWRs

Page 16 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

The amount of an isotope at a particular time can be calculated by solving the differential equation

dN(t)

dt= k minus ln 2

τN(t)

where N(t) is the amount at time t in years k is the production rate per year and τ is the half-life in yearsThe solution (assuming N(0) = 0) is

N(t) =τk

ln 2

(1minus 2minustτ

)

From this when t gtgt τ the amount of each radioactive fission product is exponentially asymptotic toa constant approximately τk ln 2 decay compensates for production The amount of these materials isproportional to the power capacity not the total amount of energy produced If stable decay products arecontinuously removed the size of the repository is roughly constant

The following table shows asymptotic fractions and asymptotic masses per GWe (not GWe-year) of shortand medium half-life fission products The fraction is measured in terms of the annual number of fissionproduct atoms which is twice the number of actinide atoms consumed

Asymptotic number fraction and mass per GWe

Isotope Fraction Mass kg Isotope Fraction Mass kg

137Cs3008yminusrarr 137Ba 2643 3072lowast 90Sr

289yminusrarr 90Y2671dminusrarr 90Zr 2398 1831

Various τ lt 1y 7999 lt7806dagger 147Pm262yminusrarr 147Sm 85852 1071

85Kr1078yminusrarr 85Rb 4226 3048Dagger 134Cs

2065yminusrarr 134Ba 1043 1185lowast

106Ru3736dminusrarr 106Rh 05773 5192 155Eu

476yminusrarr 155Gd 02266 2981125Sb

276yminusrarr 125Te 01183 1254 131I802dminusrarr 131Xe 00898 0998

lowastAssumes isotope separation of 133Cs 134Cs 135Cs and 137Cs Total caesium

accumulates at 220 kgGWe-yrdaggerThe unclassified components are assumed to have an average mass number of

115 and to have a one year half life Since they are a mixture of products with

half lives under one year the true asymptotic fraction and mass are lessDagger 85Kr is currently vented to the atmosphere

The total mass of these products exponentially approaches an asymptote of less than 5844 kg per GWeor 9934 tonnes for a 17 TWe economy If their decay products are continuously removed storage isnot a problem If not reprocessed they are diluted by their decay products and therefore their specificactivity declines sufficiently that they are not radioactively dangerous after 200ndash300 years but the volumeis proportional to kt not k In 200 years of a 17 TWe economy the amount is less than 250000 tonnes lessthan 130000 cubic yards or less than 44 feet deep on a football field Separating the streams according tohalf life reduces the 200-year stream by 85

For long-lived isotopes ie t ltlt τ on a human time scale decay does not compensate for productionApproximating 2minustτ = exp(minust ln 2τ) asymp 1minus t ln 2τ the solution is N(t) asymp kt as expected The amount ofthese fission products is in proportion to the total amount of energy produced not the power capacity

Long-lived isotopes accumulate at the rate of about 182 kg per GWe-year or about 309 tonnes per year fora 17 TWe economy 99Tc and 129I can be destroyed by transmutation but the others amounting to about124 kg per GWe-year are impractical to destroy by transmutation If other isotopes of caesium (about 147kg per GWe-year) are not separated from 135Cs the total long-term disposal stream increases to 271 kg perGWe-year (but its specific activity decreases) If stored for about 30 years before disposal about 35 kg perGWe-year of 137Cs will decay leaving about 235 kg per GWe-year or about 400 tonnes per year for a 17TWe economy if the resulting stable 137Ba were removed Surely disposal of 400 tonnes per year of theseisotopes would not be a problem

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 17

Value of one tonne of used LWR fuelseparated and reduced to metal

Value Radioactivity

Value $tonne (MevBq-s) Half life Heat

Substance Mass (gr) $gr of waste α β γ (years) Wgr238U 944100 0143 135006 42 0496 447times109

236U 3971 0143 568 45 0494 234times107

235U 7974 0143 1140 44 0657 704234U 225 0143 32 48 00532 245times105

237Np 503 0143 72 47 00294 214times106

242Pu 454 0143 65 48 00449 376times105

241Pu 111 0143 16 49 01485 1435240Pu 2302 0143 329 52 05424 656times103

239Pu 5025 0143 719 52 00516 241times104

238Pu 95 0143 14 55 00435 8774 156241Am 1084 0143 155 55 00595 432243Am 85 0143 12 53 00747 737244Cm 4 0143 1 58 00428 1811 244

Actinides 965933 0143 13812996Zr 798 305 2434 Stable94Zr 741 305 2260 Stable93Zr 718 305 2190 0010 00305 161times106

92Zr 639 305 1948 Stable91Zr 590 305 1799 Stable90Zr 391 305 1192 Stable

Fuel cladding 3877 305 1182299Tc for alloys 771 1000 7710 00846 weak 2111times105

90Sr 391 200 782 01958 29 09388Sr 350 200 700 Stable137Cs 377 200 754 0187 0479 3017 042135Cs 300 200 600 00757 0662 23times106

133Cs 1125 200 2250 Stable

Heat sources 2543 200 5086

Br 22 100 22 Stable

Mo 3345 0257 860 Stable

Ru 2177 4578 99663 Stable

Ag 76 200 152 Stable

Cd 108 200 216 Stable

Ba 2311 0560 1295 Stable

Tb 26 3000 78 Stable

Dy 14 500 7 Stable

Rh 467 50000 233500 Stable87Rb 365 1178 4300 00817 481times1010

123Te 485 139 675 gt 92times 1016

138La 1215 180 2187 00329 144 102times1011

144Nd 3488 220 7673 190 229times1015

115In 26 1000 26 01532 441times1014

(cont)

Page 18 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

Value of one tonne of used LWR fuelseparated and reduced to metal (cont)

Value Radioactivity

Value $tonne (MevBq-s) Half life Heat

Substance Mass (gr) $gr of waste α β γ (years) Wgr142Ce 2355 028 662 15 gt 50times 1016

152Gd 142 548 778 215 14times1015

147Sm 200 200 400 225 106times1011

148Sm 167 200 334 19323 70times1015

149Sm 24 200 5 Stable151Sm 88 200 17 00196 00216 90152Sm + 154Sm 419 200 838 Stable107Pd 1371 8294 113710 00093 01476 65times106

90Y 456 1000 4560 09336 weak 64 hr152Eu 035 6000 21 00831 0122 134154Eu 1095 6000 6570 0221 0123 8601155Eu 016 6000 9 0047 0087 4753

Other solid 19297 4785583H 00034 294117 1000 00156 1254He 289 173 5 Stable85Kr 308 200 616 0687 0514 1072

Xe 5332 170 9050 Stable

Gases 5643 10671

Total fission 32131 1600 513937

products

Not counted 1936

Total 1000000 065 652066

httpbrcgove-mailsAugust10Commercial Value of 1 Metric ton of used fuelpdf with radioac-tivity data from httpwwwnndcbnlgovchart

Actinides can be recycled as fuel

Zirconium from fuel pin alloys and cladding and fission products can be recycled into new fuel pin claddingand alloys

Some radioactive elements produce sufficient heat to be usable as energy sources for example in radioisotopethermal generators for space applications These would not be isotopically separated 90Sr is 53 of thetotal strontium in fission products so heat production for all strontium is 049 Wgr 137Cs is 21 of thetotal caesium in fission products so heat production for all caesium is 0088 Wgr

Technetium is valuable for alloying with rhenium and has medical applications

Gases would be separated first then actinides then highly radioactive products This would reduce the costof separating and reducing the stable and less radioactive products

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 19

Appendix ndash Fuel and waste cycles

Actinides

IFRReprocessing

PrimaryProcessing

Disposaland sale

NonradioactiveLong half lifemostly 135Cs and 93Zr30 kg per GWe-yr665 kg per GWe-yearwith all cesium

ContinuousReprocessing

584 tonnes per GWe

Medium andshort half life

1 Tonneper GWe-year

99Tc 13 kg129I 177 kg

per GWe-yr

Usedfuel

Usedfuel

Sale

Nonradioactive

20 tonnes per GWe-yr

Enrichment

Sale

Disposaland sale

Enrichment LWR andLWR reprocessing

eventually phased out

LWRLWR

Reprocessing

Depleted uraniumstorage

Plutonium

8-10 tonnesper GWestartup

IFR

Enriched uranium

Fis

sion

pro

duct

s1

Ton

ne p

er G

We-

yr

MinedUranium

Acceleratortransmutation

Unused fuel and fissionproducts for transmutation

1 tonneper GWe-yr

Page 20 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

Appendix ndash Partitioning and Transmutation

Medium- and long-lived fission products could in principle be destroyed by transmuting them to isotopesthat are stable or have short half lives which decay to stable isotopes

The following tablea shows that 99Tc 129I 93Zr 107Pd and 135Cs can be transmuted much faster thantheir natural decay (ie T Jtrans ltlt T J12) The radiotoxicity of 107Pd and 135Cs is so small it is not worth

the bother to transmute them 93Zr can be recycled into fuel pin cladding or fuel alloying If 99Tc and129I were destroyed there could be very few remaining objections to nuclear power For 90Sr and 137CsT Jtrans gtgt T J12 so transmuting them is not interesting They are biologically active but can simply be

stored for about six half lives (180 years) after which the remaining amounts (069 and 11 kgGWe-yr) canbe discarded or sold If they are initially deposited in ldquodeep geologicalrdquo storage the containment durationrequirement for the repositories is significantly shorter by a factor of 1500 than for used LWR fuel For 79Seand 126Sn T Jtrans ltlt T J12 but T Jtrans is not sufficiently small to be interesting Although the radiotoxicity

per gram of 126Sn and 79Se is large they are produced in such small amounts that their total radiotoxicityper GWe-yr is comparable to that of the others

Isotope J decay Radiotoxicity σJ(nγ) (barns) T Jtrans (years) Mass per Transmuted

mode and T J12 Svg SvGWe-yr Thermal Fast Thermal Fast GWe-yr decay mode

90Sr289yminusrarr 90Y 1411k 1664M 014 001 1600 2200 1179 kg 91Sr

963hminusrarr 91Y137Cs

3008yminusrarr 137Ba 4187k 1152M 002 001 11000 2200 2752 kg 138Cs3341mminusrarr 138Ba

99Tc211kyminusrarr 99Ru 04 8708 43 02 51 110 2177 kg 100Tc

1546sminusrarr 100Ru126Sn

230kyminusrarr 126Sb 4936 4019 005 0005 4400 4400 0814 kg 127Sn21hminusrarr 127Sb

79Se295kyminusrarr 79Br 7478 1271 01 003 2200 7300 0170 kg 80Se is stable

93Zr153myminusrarr 93Nb 0102 2097 028 003 790 730 2056 kg 94Zr is stable

135Cs23myminusrarr 135Ba 0085 1009 13 007 170 310 1187 kg 136Cs

1304dminusrarr 136Ba107Pd

65myminusrarr 107Ag 00007 8309 03 05 730 44 6922 kg 108Pd is stable129I

157myminusrarr 129Xe 0718 4921 43 014 51 160 8853 kg 130I1236hminusrarr 130Xe

T Jtrans is the transmutation half-time for isotope J

Amounts and radioactivity from ORIGEN 22 Radiotoxicity dose factors from ICRP publication 119

This graph from the Swedish Radiation Safety Authorityb[29]

0001

001

01

1

10

100Radiotoxic inventory [Svg]

102 103 104 105 106101

TRU

FP

Uranium in nature

t[y]

shows that most of the radiotoxicity of used nuclear fuel arisesfrom the transuranics which IFR would consume and thatthe radiotoxicity of fission products is below the radiotoxic-ity of uranium ore within 200-300 years Transmuting 99Tcand 129I would reduce the long-term tail of the fission productradiotoxicity from 300 years onward by 60 The ordinateis radiotoxicity per gram of the original fission products notthe remaining fission products at the time specified by the ab-scissa Fission products are stored together stable ones arenot continuously separated from radioactive ones

aData from httpusersictpit˜pub_offlectureslns005Number_2Slessarev_1pdfbhttpwwwstralsakerhetsmyndighetenseGlobalPublikationerTidskriftNucleus2007Nucleus-4-2007pdf

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 21

Appendix ndash Worldwide limitations of alternative energy sources

Details in httpwwwphysicsucsdedu~tmurphyphys239shu_energypdf by Dr Frank Shu

Solar photovoltaic

Solar photovoltaic could in principle supply 15 TWe enough to power the Earthrsquos entire current energyeconomy using about 02 of the land area of the Earth below 60 latitude

Wind

Land-based wind cannot supply more than about 18 TWe or about 12 of the current energy economy

Ocean currents

The Kuroshio current which flows northward in the western Pacific past Taiwan and Japan has a powerof about 100 GW Assuming 50 efficiency of extraction allows about 50 GWe to be extracted The gulfstream flows twice as fast producing eight times as much power allowing about 400 GWe to be extractedExtracting significant power from ocean currents anywhere in the world would have profound effects onclimate

Coastal ocean waves

Assuming 50 efficiency of energy extraction ocean waves impinging on all the shorelines of the Earth couldprovide about 024 TWe or about 16 of the current energy economy

Geothermal

Geothermal sources cannot provide more than about 04 TWe or about 27 of the current energy economy

Tides

Energy extractable from tidal sources amounts to about 3 GWe worldwide or about 002 of the currentenergy economy It is only economically feasible in bays such as the Bay of Fundy which concentrate tidesto heights of as much as 5 meters Damming such bays has effects on the resonant frequency of nearby baysand estuaries profoundly altering currents and tides in nearby areas

Hydroelectric

The Earthrsquos land area is 148times 1012 m2 Average rainfall is 12 meters per year Water density is 103 kgm3

Total rainfall is thus about 18times 1017 kg Dropping 100 meters releases 18times 1017 kgtimes 98 ms2 times 100 m =

176times 1020 joule Spread out over a year 315times 107 s gives 56 TW Assuming 90 efficiency yields 5 TWeThe total available is less perhaps 35 TWe if polar regions are excluded Hydroelectric installations observeabout 30 capacity factor yielding total worldwide availability of about 1 TWe-yryr or about 67 of thecurrent energy economy

Total

Excluding solar photovoltaic and ocean currents alternative electricity sources could yield about 3443 TWeworldwide or about 23 of the current energy economy

Page 22 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

More to the point Chernobyl was a steam explosion followed by a hydrogen explosiona followed by agraphite fire Although a test reactor at Idaho National Laboratory was intentionally destroyed by promptcriticalityb it is impossible for a municipal nuclear reactor licensed in an OECD or EU-27 country to generatea nuclear explosion IFR being liquid-metal cooled has no water in the core and is not graphite moderatedA steam explosion a hydrogen explosion or a graphite fire is impossible in the core of an IFR

Fukushima

Despite widespread hysteria a reportc from the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of AtomicRadiation (UNSCEAR) presented to the UN General Assembly in October 2013 [9] shows that nobody waskilled injured or made ill by the destruction of the reactors at Fukushima by the earthquake and tsunamiand nobody will be

From Page 9 section 2 ldquoDose Assessmentrdquo para 29 ldquoThe Japanese people receive an effective dose of radiationfrom naturally occurring sources of on average about 21 millisieverts (mSv) annually and a total of about170 mSv over their lifetimesrdquo

From page 11 section 3 ldquoHealth Implicationsrdquo para 38 ldquoNo radiation-related deaths or acute diseases have beenobserved among the workers and general public exposed to radiation from the accidentrdquo

para 40 ldquoFor adults in Fukushima Prefecture the Committee estimates [the increase in] average lifetime effectivedoses to be of the order of 10 mSv or less a discernible increase in cancer incidence in this populationthat could be attributed to radiation exposure from the accident is not expectedrdquo

For comparison the dose from an abdominal and pelvic CT scan repeated with and without contrast wouldbe about 30 mSv or about ten yearsrsquo worth of average normal background radiation This increases lifetimecancer risk from 1 in 5 to 1005 in 5 Yearly dose on the Tibetan plateau is 13-20 mSv In areas of monazitedeposits in Brazil and India doses exceed 36 mSvyear

Nuclear power reactor waste

Foremost among the benefits of IFR beyond enhanced inherent safety the amount of waste is a factor of 20less than the amount produced by LWRs Most IFR waste is dangerously radioactive for five years and theremainder for a few hundred years instead of a few hundred thousand years [1]

The 2000 tons of used fuel removed from US LWRs per year are currently considered waste but are actuallya valuable resource because only 5 of their energy content has been extracted

Used fuel has a density of about 11 gramscm3 or about 8 tonsyd3 As of 2006 total US commercial fueldischarges amounted to about 59160 tonnesd or about 7400 cubic yards of accumulated ldquowasterdquo This isalready enough for 8ndash10 Yucca Mountains If piled on a 3000 square yard football field it would be 74feet deep (but it would melt) The 100000000 tons of eternally-toxic solid wastee from operation of UScoal-fired power plants in 2006 alone would be about 74000 feet or about 14 miles deepf amounting to 740miles in fifty years

aSteam reacted with zirconium fuel pin cladding to produce hydrogenbNuclear fission produces two populations of neutrons those emitted within about ten nanoseconds (prompt neutrons) and

those emitted up to several seconds later (delayed neutrons) If critical neutron flux arises from prompt neutrons it is notpossible to control the reaction

chttpwwwunscearorgdocsGAreportsA-68-46_e_V1385727pdfdhttpwwweiadoegovcneafnuclearspent_fuelussnfdatahtml reports LWR waste of 42750 tonnes through 2002

httpwwweiadoegovemeuaertxtstb0902xls reports 631 GWe-yr nuclear production 2003ndash2009 and 16 TWe-yr from1957ndash2002 Assuming the same 26718 tonnesTWe-yr 1957ndash2002 rate for 2003ndash2009 gives 16860 additional tonnes

eAccording to httpwwwornlgovinfoornlreviewrev26-34textcolmainhtml there is 163 times more energy inthe waste from coal-fired power plants than in the coal that was burned 47 tonnes of uranium and 116 tonnes of thorium perGWe-yr about 0036 of a coal-fired power plantrsquos solid waste Power plants account for only 74 of coal combustion

fAccording to httpwwwtfhrcgovhnr20recyclewastecbabs1htm density is 10125ndash135 tonsyd3

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 7

In addition to the 5-used-fuel ldquowasterdquo there are about 900000 tons of depleted-uranium ldquowasterdquo left overfrom the enrichment process containing more than 90 of the energy in the uranium that was mined

The rate at which waste generates heat is a more important factor than its volume With transuranicspresent ndash as in what we currently call ldquowasterdquo ndash the long-term capacity of a repository is determined by theheat those transuranics will generate millennia hence With them removed the primary determining factorbecomes heat generated by 137Cs and 90Sr With transuranics removed but 137Cs and 90Sr remaining thecapacity of a repository is increased by a factor of about five compared to the current technology With only137Cs and 90Sr remaining the capacity is enormously increased [1]

A reactor (IFR or otherwise) produces about 1 tonne of fission products per GWe-year The current USLWR fleet produces about 90 GWe-year per year thereby generating about 90 tonnes of fission productsper year about 5 of the total ldquowasterdquo or about 300 milligrams per American Radioactive 137Cs and90Sr amount to about 39 kg per GWe-year Not all isotopes of caesium and strontium are radioactive andisotopic separation is costly so it makes more sense to consider total caesium and strontium fission productswhich amount to 92 kgGWe-year about 83 Tonnesyr or about 24 milligrams per American per year Ifall those fission products within the 59160 tonnes of ldquowasterdquo accumulated from 1957 until 2006 were spreadon a football field the pile would be about 044 inches deep A pile of all fission products including thosethat are nonradioactive or have very short half lives would be 48 inches deep (but it would melt)

If the current American supply of LWRs were replaced by IFRs the stream of ldquowasterdquo would be reduced from1818 to 90 tonnes per year and if left mixed instead of separated those 90 tonnes would be less radiotoxicthan mined uranium before 200ndash300 years instead of 300000 years as for LWR ldquowasterdquo

The nonradioactive short-lived and long-lived fission products could be separated Strontium and caesiumconstitute 9 of fission products 6 of fission products (99Tc and 129I) have very long half lives but canbe transmuted to short-lived isotopes (1546 seconds and 1236 hours) by neutron absorption within thereactor thereby effectively destroying them 93Zr another 2 of fission products can be recycled into fuelpin cladding or alloying (where it doesnrsquot matter that itrsquos radioactive and the radioactivity is low-energybeta ndash electron ndash emission anyway) The remaining 89 are less radiotoxic than mined uranium before five toten years The stream requiring long-term storage (strontium and caesium) would thereby be substantiallyreduced to about 92 kgGWe-yr The specific activity (heat generation per kilogram) of the remainderwould be reduced Other fission products (primarily 137Cs and 90Sr) could in principle be destroyed byneutron transmutation but it takes longer than their normal decay Even if they are simply stored howevertheir specific activity is so low that storage is not a significant problem At an average of $16 milliontonne(some much higher) the appreciable commercial value of many fission productsa reduces the storage problemeven further

If all current US electric power generating capacity were replaced with IFR the stream of fission productswould amount to 450 tonnes per year of which 41 tonnes require long-term custody This is less than onequarter the quantity of 5-used fuel that is generated by the LWRs that supply about 20 of our presentelectric power needs

A 17 TWe energy economy powered by IFRs would produce 1700 tonnes of fission products per year orabout 65 less than the 1818 tonnes of 5-used fuel removed from the LWRs that currently supply onlyabout 53 of our energy needs Long-lived fission products (mostly 93Zr and 135Cs) amount to about 131kg per GWe-year or 223 tonnes (730 milligrams per American) altogether per year 93Zr could be recycledinto fuel-pins so it neednrsquot be stored 93Zr and 135Cs would occupy about 121 yd3 or about 14 inch ifspread on a football field They have such low specific activity that they are not considered to be dangerousIf 133Cs (stable) 134Cs (2065y) and 137Cs (3008y) are not removed the amount is 269 yd3 per year

Fission products with half-lives less than thirty years are less radiotoxic than mined natural uranium before200ndash300 years so custody is simple for them Production and radioactive decay offset each other expo-nentially approaching an asymptote of about 584 tonnes of radioactive material per GWe (not GWe-year)If stable decay products are continuously removed a constant capacity is needed for radioactive materialstorage preferably co-located with each IFR

That is storage and disposal are not problems and therefore IFR waste is not a problem

ahttpbrcgove-mailsAugust10Commercial Value of 1 Metric ton of used fuelpdf

Page 8 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

Refer to the appendices for more details

Availability of nuclear fuel

For LWRs the concentration of 235U the fissile isotope is typically enriched from the natural 071 toabout 42 leaving behind a supply of uranium depleted in 235U that is about 57 times the amount ofldquoreactor graderdquo enriched uranium Combining this and the 4-5 fuel efficiency of LWR we extract lessthan 06 of the energy in mined uranium In a reactor some of the 238U is transmuted into 239Pu andother transuranics which are directly usable as IFR fuel In an IFR energy economy once started thosetransuranics rather than 235U provide much of the fission energy and the neutrons needed to transmute 238Uinto more transuranics That is (a) enrichment is not necessary and (b) the currently left-behind depleteduranium is valuable as future fuel

Using a rule of thumb that fissioning 09 kg of actinides yields 1 GWth-day of energy and generating 1 GWerequires 3 GWth to be expended 1 GWe-yr requires 36525 times 3 times 09 = 981 kg asymp 1 tonne of actinides tobe converted to fission products If mined uranium were used to 100 capacity instead of 06 total USpower demand of about 1700 GWe would require about 1700 tonnes of new uranium per year

IFRs could use the current US supply of LWR ldquowasterdquo a substance of which we are desperately eager tobe rid as fuel If nothing is done other than to build an IFR to replace each LWR as it reaches the endof its useful lifea about 50 tonnes of start-up fuel per IFR plus one tonne per year of make-up uraniumthereafterb would be needed That is assuming there are 900000 tonnes of LWR ldquowasterdquo on hand (usedfuel plus depleted uranium) there is enough fuel from that alone for about 10000 years without miningmilling refining or enriching any new uranium

If all current US electric generating capacity were replaced with IFRs about 450 tonnes of makeup fuelwould be needed per year that is there is enough fuel for about 2000 years If the entire energy economywere powered by IFR about 1700 tonnes per year would be needed that is there is enough fuel from currentLWR ldquowasterdquo alone for almost 530 years Is it really ldquowasterdquo

Uranium is four times more common than tin and ten times more common than silver Currently knownreserves of uranium in ore of current commercial grade contain about five million tonnes of the metalc Thatis enough for about 4300 years if used in 90 GWe capacity of US LWRs or about 4800 years if all 1700GWe US power demand were supplied by IFRs Current total worldwide energy demand is about fourtimes US energy demand so if the entire world were to be powered by IFRs at current demand there isenough uranium counting only known reserves profitably recoverable at $138kgU for about 1200 years

The picture isnrsquot so bleak however because the efficiency of use of uranium by IFRs means the fuel costper kWh would be the same as for LWRs at $1380006 asymp $23000kgU or about 0001centkWh This makesit economically feasible to use lower grade ores or more importantly to extract uranium from seawaterwhere there is estimated to be about 45 billion tonnes this is enough for more than a million years ofcurrent worldwide energy demand Even this however is a substantial under-estimate because uraniumis continuously flowing into the oceans from rivers That is uranium alone is an essentially inexhaustibleresource Thorium which could in principle serve as fertile future fuel is four times more common thanuranium so even without river inflow all current worldwide power needs could be supplied for about fivemillion years using nuclear fission Nuclear fission is an effectively inexhaustible energy resource

Weapons proliferation

The ldquoIntegralrdquo in IFR means that the entire system including fuel reprocessing is integrated in one facilityActinides go into an IFR none come out except to start a new IFR Opportunities for theft of partly-used

aWe wouldnrsquot replace LWRs prematurely because the IFR system functions symbiotically with the current fuel cyclebIFR fuel has to be asymp 20 fissile (mainly PU-239) and 80 fertile (U-238) Once an IFR has been loaded it can generate its

own fissile material from fertile material so all it would need to keep running is one tonne of unenriched uranium per GWe-yearc httpwwwworld-nuclearorginfoinf75html

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 9

fuel would be reduced because it would not be transported to a separate facility for processing

Unlike LWRs an IFR power economy once started does not need its uranium fuel to be enriched in 235UThis means that it is not necessary to have any facility to enrich uranium for other than military purposesA reactor owner does need however either ironclad international guarantees of assured fuel supply or theability to reprocess partly used fuel

The ability to reprocess fuel implies the presence of a cadre of professionals who are familiar with most of thetechniques for making weapons-grade materials The mixture of actinides taken out of IFR for reprocessingpresents more difficult radiation thermal chemical and metallurgical problems to would-be weaponeersthan those taken from LWR It is unsuitable for direct use in weapons primarily because of the presenceof 243Am 241Pu and non-fissionable 238Pu 240Pu and 242Pu but is admirably suited as IFR fuel 241Puemits 50 times more heat 5000 times more neutrons and 100 times more gamma radiation than 239PuThis could damage a weapon or cause predetonation and makes maintenance of fine mechanical tolerancesdifficult Expensive remote assembly is mandatory Separating 239Pu from nearby isotopes is more difficultthan separating 238U from 235U first because the mass difference is smaller and second because synthesizingthe gaseous compound PuF6 needed for centrifugal or gas diffusion isotope separation is difficult Eventhough the problem of extracting weapons-grade materials from LWR is easier than for IFR nobody hasdone so Every nuclear weapons program has depended upon enriched uranium or upon purpose-builtreactors optimized to produce 239Pu and these have been nation-scale projects not backyard garage-scaleprojects that a terrorist cell might successfully undertake The simple conclusion is that used LWR fuel isjust about the most difficult material from which to produce nuclear weapons [3] A Lawrence LivermoreNational Laboratory study [10] concluded that spent IFR fuel cannot be used to make a nuclear weaponwithout significant further processing

Even if the difficulties of producing weapons from used reactor fuel could be overcome IFR presents nonew problems of weapons proliferation because reprocessing and enrichment are not substantially differentfrom the standpoint of international oversight No countryrsquos desire or ability to produce nuclear weaponshas ever been affected by any other countryrsquos decision to reprocess or not to reprocess used municipalreactor fuel Every advanced industrial country could in principle produce nuclear weapons independentlyof any other countryrsquos decision to reprocess or not to reprocess used municipal reactor fuel If a countrycannot be trusted with this technology do not sell reactors or fuel reprocessing systems to them The samelong-distance transmission that would be required for solar power would serve their needs

Costs

GE estimates their version of IFR known as S-PRISMa can be built for about $15-2W or $22W after a90 capacity factor is incorporated [11] A GEHitachi consortium estimates they could produce IFR for$12-14W [3] The Diablo Canyon generating station produces electricity for 5cent per kWh The Palo Verdestation was constructed for $179W and produces electricity for 43cent per kWh

T Boone Pickens proposed to build a 4 GWe wind farm The estimated cost ballooned to $3W or $15Wafter incorporating a 21 capacity factor [3] The project was abandoned The Sacramento Municipal UtilityDistrict (SMUD) reports a 15 capacity factor for solar photovoltaic ldquoNo system with capacity factors thislow is a viable energy producing systemrdquo [11] After incorporating these capacity factors the effectiveconstruction costs increase to $4000-$8500kWe for wind and $16000-$60000kWe for solar SMUDestimates a 69-year financial payback for solar photovoltaicb Because wind and solar are diffuse sources$11-13 trillion would be needed for grid upgrades [3] adding another $750kWe to the construction costBecause they are diffuse and erratic sources additional costs for storage would be necessary

In 2017 the lowest-price solar cells cost $180 per peak watt With 15 capacity factor this is $12 peraverage watt Amortized over 25 years at 5 and deducting the four-plus year energy payback capital costalone is 117cent per kWh (181cent at 10) The GVEA 40 battery in Fairbanks Alaska is the largest utility-scale

aSuper Power Reactor Inherently Safe ModularbLifetime is only 30ndash40 years See httpwwwostigovbridgeservletspurl755637-oDWEJRwebviewable755637pdf

or httpwwwglobalspeccomLearnMoreOptics_Optical_ComponentsOptoelectronicsPhotovoltaic_Cells

Page 10 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

storage battery It weighs 1200 tonnes provides 10 MWh storage and cost $350Wh Amortized over fiveyears this is 57centkWha To have constant output the panel capacity needs to be twice the demand ndash halffor immediate use and half to charge batteries so the capital cost for cells plus storage is 291cent per kWhThis does not include mounting transportation operation maintenance land recycling or grid upgradesThe equation used to calculate amortized cost is

A(n) = rA(nminus 1)minus p

where A(0) is the initial cost per watt and A(n) is the amount remaining to be paid after n payments ofp dollars at an interest rate of 100(r minus 1) per payment period Solving this equation for A(n) settingA(n) = 0 and solving for p gives

p = A(0) rnr minus 1

rn minus 1

The cost per watt hour is pH where H is hours per payment period If the payment period is one yearand power is provided continuously H is 8766 (36525times24) Because solar panels have a 45 year energypayback period the final value needs to be multiplied by n(nminus 45) where n is years

The following table compares construction costs for eight renewable sources [3] Costs are per peak kWenot average kWe The capacity factor is not included

Cost Cost Cost CostSource $kWe Source $kWe Source $kWe Source $kWeWind (onshore) 800 Wind (offshore) 1700 Hydro 2000 Geothermal 2100Biomass 2300 Solar (thermal) 2400 Tidal 2800 Solar (PV) 5900

The following table compares operating and construction costs for six electric power technologies [3] [12][13] External grid upgrade and storage costs are not included Since 1981 nuclear power utilities havebeen paying 01centkWh into the Federal Nuclear Waste Fund so LWR decommissioning and ldquowasterdquo handlingcosts are included as internal costs

Operating Average Effective FederalCost Construction Capacity Construction Life Delivered Subsidy

Fuel centkWh Cost $kWe Factor Cost $kWedagger (yrs) centkWhDagger centkWhlowast

LWR Nuclear 49 1000-2000 gt 90 1111-2222 50 515ndash541 0210Coal 60-63 1000-1500 gt 90 1111-1667 50 625ndash668 0056Hydro 40-80 2000 asymp 33 6000 100 469ndash869 0136Gas 76-92 400-800 gt 90 444-888 30 777ndash954 0060Wind 49-100 1000-2000 asymp 21 4762-9524 20 762ndash1543 3533Solar PV 150-300 6000-9000 asymp 15 40000-60000 30 3021ndash5282 23131daggerConstruction cost capacity factorDaggerOperating cost + construction cost ( capacity factor times lifetime ) Amortization not includedlowasthttpwwweiagovanalysisrequestssubsidy tables ES4 and ES5 for 2013

Particulate emissions alone from coal-fired power plants cost $165 billion [3] and cause 30100 prematuredeaths 603000 asthma attacks and 5130000 lost work days per year in the United States alone [14]

Nuclear power has the lowest delivered costs in ten of twelve countries studied [15] (India China and Russiawere not included) The two that did not have the lowest costs were the United States and Korea Thereport did not address the significant costs in the United States of protracted litigation and continuouslyrevised regulations and slow licensing of individual reactors It would be helpful if the Nuclear RegulatoryCommission were to adopt the French system of licensing reactor designs instead of individual reactors IFRs

aProf Nate Lewis in a private seminar Where will we get our energy at Caltech Jet Propulsion Laboratory estimated40-50centkWh

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 11

would be less expensive to build and operate than current technology because they are simpler standardizeddesigns instead of complicated one-off designs [3] The system is further substantially simplified because thecoolant operates at atmospheric pressure instead of 160 atmospheres and it absorbs essentially all neutronsthat escape the core so special alloys and over-designing are not needed to compensate for containmentvessel embrittlement caused by neutron damage and there are much fewer radioactive structural neutronactivation products

When external costs are included nuclear costs are estimated [16] to be about one tenth as much as coalCO2 emissions are explicitly excluded from costs of fossil-fuel systems Nuclear utilities have been paying01centkWh into the Federal Waste Disposal Fund since 1981 for used nuclear fuel disposal and reactor decom-missioning these costs are included as internal costs for LWR The radiological cost of mining is includedbut for IFR that would be irrelevant since there is already enough uranium above ground for several cen-turies For IFR fuel would be cheaper than free for a few hundred years because it would consume the LWRldquowasterdquo of which we are desperately eager to be rid and disposal of IFR waste would be far less expensivethan disposal of 5-used LWR fuel so IFR must have much lower than one tenth the operating cost of coal

The United States has already invested $8 Billion in the Yucca Mountain repository It is estimated to cost$436 Billion to complete [3] and current waste would require about 8-10 times more capacity than YuccaMountain would have at completion IFR would make Yucca Mountain irrelevant and is even more importantnow that the Obama administration has canceled Yucca Mountain Why is the Nevada Congressionaldelegation not insisting that the IFR demonstration project be restarted

Tony Blairrsquos government commissioned a study by Sir Nicholas Stern former vice president and chiefeconomist for the World Bank He recommended committing 1 of global GDP to reduce CO2 emissions to25-70 below current levels by mid century and that increased extreme weather costs alone could reach1 of GDP [3] For the United States that amount of todayrsquos GDP would be $290 billion per year In thenext section we estimate that producing an energy economy entirely powered by IFR could be accomplishedin fewer than 65 years Spending $290 billion per year on CO2 remediation during that interval would cost$188 trillion (in todayrsquos dollars) At $22BGWe for IFR 17 TWe would cost $374 trilliona ndash 20 asmuch ndash and would essentially eliminate CO2 emissions not reduce them by 25-70

What can be done

As admirable as they are conservation biofuels wind geothermal tides waves ocean currents and hydroalone or together cannot power any economy nor can they destroy the 59160 tonnes of ldquowasterdquo from thefirst 53 years of US LWR operations and more accumulated since 2006 Wind and solar are much moreexpensive than IFR There are no good hydro sites that have been exploited A 2017 study [17] concludedthat a 100 renewable-electricity system might not be physically feasible let alone economically viableCoal is terrible (and more expensive as well) Natural gas is more benign than coal but still produces CO2Oil produces CO2 and importing it and protecting access to overseas sources is expensive in both blood andnational treasure Solar is much more expensive than IFR and wouldnrsquot destroy waste That leaves IFR asthe only alternative that is both sufficient and economically viable

There are no serious plans for electric airplanes ships or heavy construction or farm equipment so someliquid hydrocarbon fuels will be needed for the foreseeable future Hydrogen is at present a nonstarterbecause of the storage problem Fortunately we know how to make hydrocarbon fuels from energy + water+ CO2b Using such fuels or hydrogen if the storage problem is solved (or maybe boron [3]) it is possibletherefore to convert the entire US energy economy to electricity provided mostly by IFR with hydrowind solar geothermal or biofuels where appropriate

The current US economy could be powered by about 17 TWe Each 1 GWe reactor needs 8ndash10 tonnesof startup fissile material which would at first largely be actinides from used LWR fuel and plutoniumand enriched uranium from decommissioned weapons The current US inventory of fissionable actinides is

aGEHitachi estimates $21-24 trillion ndash 11-13 of $188 trillionbThe Fischer-Tropsch process

Page 12 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

about 900 tonnes plus about 225 tonnes of weapons-grade 235Ua or enough to start up only about 110-140GWe of capacity using IFR With breeding that IFR fleet could have a sustained growth rate of 5 per yearor maybe more After startup the deployment rate would gradually accelerate from 5ndash7 per year helpedalong by actinides from still-operating LWRs and reach the desired 17 TWe goal within about 40ndash50 yearsor sooner to the extent renewable sources are appropriate or if uranium enrichment is continued

A single complete and permanent solution to all energy pollution nuclear waste and CO2 emission problemsis within our grasp All obstacles to that solution are political abetted and perpetuated by ignoranceintentional falsehoods irrational hysteria and opportunistic demagoguery not scientific technological orengineering problems Competition for energy resources is frequently blamed for wars IFR would eliminatethat excuse

Fast breeder reactors with fuel recycling will be developed There is no credible alternative There is an 800MWe reactor in service in Russiab and a 1200 MWe reactor is under development China has contractedto buy a BN-800 reactor from Russia South Korea has announced a 400 GWe fast-neutron reactor will beavailable for sale in 2020 India is building a prototype fast-neutron reactor to exploit their vast reservesof thorium China and Japan are making progress on their own designs American experts are retiring ordying far faster then younger ones are being prepared The United States will soon be a third-world countryin energy technology

Should the United States spend $188 trillion on CO2 reduction and mitigation $1075 trillion on coal sootdamage $68ndash102 trillion on solar cells $25 trillion on wind turbines $475 trillion on grid upgrades ndash about$130minus170 trillion altogether (and none of those would destroy one gram of nuclear waste) and suffer 2million unnecessary deaths due to coal emissions or spend $24 trillion on IFR (and render all nuclear wasteharmless)

For me the answer is obvious There is no time to waste We really ought to get started

Acknowledgment

This work benefited substantially from constructive criticism by the late Dr George S Stanford

Further reading

[1] Charles E Till and Yoon Il Chang Plentiful energy (2011) ISBN 978-1466384606

[2] William H Hannum Gerald E Marsh and George S Stanford Smarter use of nuclear waste ScientificAmerican (December 2005)httpswwwscientificamericancomarticlesmarter-use-of-nuclear-waste

[3] Tom Blees Prescription For The Planet The painless remedy for our energy and environmental crises(2008) ISBN 1-4196-5582-5 Impressive technical content plus off-putting gratuitous political insultsand nutty ideas about UN control of world energy

[4] D C Wade and Y I Chang The Integral Fast Reactor Physics of operation and safety NuclearScience and Engineering 100 4 (December 1988) 507ndash524

[5] Matthew D Eisaman Keshav Parajuly Alexander Tuganov Craig Eldershaw Noring Chang andKarl A Littau CO2 extraction from seawater using bipolar membrane electrodialysis Energy amp En-vironmental Science 5 6 (May 2012)

[6] National Renewable Energy Laboratory Land-use requirements of modern wind power plants in theUnited States httpwwwnrelgovdocsfy09osti45834pdf (2009)

a141 of LWR waste (httpwwwwhatisnuclearcomarticleswastehtmlcomposition) plus military inventory of 45tonnes 239Pu and 225 tonnes 235U (httpdsp-psdpwgscgccaCollection-RLoPBdPBPbp461-ehtm)

bhttpsenwikipediaorgwikiBN-800_reactor

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 13

[7] David Baurac Passively safe reactors rely on nature to keep them coolhttpwwwneanlgovAbouthnlogos-winter02-psrshtml (Winter 2002)

[8] United Nations Scientific Committee for the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) Scientific AnnexD Health effects due to radiation from the Chernobyl accident in Sources and Effects of IonizingRadiation 2008 Report to the General Assembly Volume II ISBN-13 978-92-1-142280-1 (2011)

[9] United Nations Scientific Committee for the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) Chapter IIIScientific Findings Part A Levels and effects of radiation exposure due to the nuclear accident afterthe great east-Japan earthquake and tsunami in Sources and Effects of Ionizing Radiation 2013 Reportto the General Assembly Volume I ISBN 978-92-1-142291-7 e-ISBN 978-92-1-056501-1 (2014)

[10] D L Goldman Some Implications of Using IFR High-Transuranic Plutonium in a Prolifer-ant Nuclear Weapon Program Technical Report CONDU-94-0199 Lawrence Livermore NationalLaboratory (March 1994)

[11] P E Donald E Lutz PGampE solar plants in the desert Truth about energy (2007)

[12] Nuclear Energy Agency Projected costs of generating electricityhttpwwwieaorgtextbasenppdffree2005ElecCostPDF (2005)

[13] Nuclear Energy Agency Projected costs of generating electricityhttpwwwieaorgTextbasenpsumElecCost2010SUMpdf (2010)

[14] Mark Fischetti The human cost of energy Scientific American (September 2011)

[15] Uranium Information Center (UIC) The Economics of Nuclear Power Technical report AustralianUranium Association Melbourne (March 2008)

[16] European Commission Research team of the ExternE project serieshttpwwwexterneinfoteamhtml (2007)

[17] B W Heard B W Brook T M L Wigley and C J A Bradshaw Burden of proof A comprehensivereview of the feasibility of 100 renewable-electricity systems Renewable and Sustainable EnergyReviews 76 (2017) 1122ndash1133

[18] William H Hannum The technology of the integral fast reactor and its associated fuel cycle Progressin Nuclear Energy 31 1ndash2 (1997)

[19] George S Stanford Integral fast reactors Source of safe abundant non-polluting powerhttpwwwnationalcenterorgNPA378html

[20] Gerald E Marsh and George S Stanford Bombs reprocessing and reactor grade plutonium Forumon Physics amp Society of the American Physical Society Newsletter 35 2 (April 2006)httphttpwwwthesciencecouncilcomindexphpgeorge-stanford

[21] Charles Till Plentiful energy and the IFR story The Republic News and Issues Magazine (June-September 2005) httpwwwsustainablenuclearorgPADspad0509tillhtml

[22] The Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP) httpwwwgnepenergygov

[23] Vic Reis Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP) in American Nuclear Society meetingReno NV American Nuclear Society (5 June 2006)httpwwwsustainablenuclearorgPADspad0606reispdf

[24] Doug Lightfoot Wallace Manheimer Dan Meneley Duane Pendergast and George S Stanford NuclearFission Fuel Is Inexhaustible in Climate Change Technology Conference (10ndash12 May 2006)Ottawa Ontario Canada

Page 14 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

[25] George S Stanford LWR Recycle Necessity or Impediment in ldquoGlobal 2003rdquo ANS WinterMeeting New Orleans American Nuclear Society (16ndash20 November 2003)httpwwwnationalcenterorgLWRStanfordpdf

[26] Senators Richard Lugar and Even Bayh A nuclear fuel bank advocated Chicago Tribune (22 October2006)

[27] Gerald E Marsh and George S Stanford Yucca Mountain The Right DecisionhttpwwwnationalcenterorgNPA415html (June 2002)

[28] Steve Kirsch httpskirschcompoliticsglobalwarmingifrhtm Summary blog

[29] Janne Wallenius Ateranvandning av langlivat avfall och sluten branslecykel mojlig i nya reaktortyper(Reuse of long-lived waste and a closed fuel cycle possible in new reactor types) Nucleus (April 2007)15ndash19

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 15

Appendix ndash Fission product yields from light-water reactors

See httpenwikipediaorgwikiFission_product_yield Sorted by half life

Number Isotope decay path Mass per

fractiondagger and half life GWe-year Comment

28336 131I802dminusrarr 131Xe 3150 kg Reduced by 195times10minus14 per year ndash 06 ng after one year

554478 Various lt 1y 5411 kglowast Decay to stable products

03912 106Ru3736dminusrarr 106Rh 3519 kg

asymp 035 134Cs2065yminusrarr 134Ba 3980 kg Created in the reactor from 133Cs by neutron capture

22713 147Pm262yminusrarr 147Sm 2833 kg

00297 125Sb276yminusrarr 125Te 315 g

lt00330 155Eu476yminusrarr 155Gd 434 g Mostly destroyed by neutron capture in the reactor

02717 85Kr1078yminusrarr 85Rb 1960 kg Currently released to the atmosphere

lt00003 113mCd141yminusrarr 113mIn 288 g Mostly destroyed by neutron capture in the reactor

57518 90Sr289yminusrarr 90Y 4393 kg Principal medium-term radiation and heat source319hminusrarr 90Zr

60899 137Cs3008yminusrarr 137Ba 7080 kg Principal medium-term radiation and heat source

lt04203 151Sm90yminusrarr 151Eu 5385 kg Mostly destroyed by neutron capture in the reactor

1e18yminusrarr 147Pm 151Eu is essentially stable262yminusrarr 147Sm1e11yminusrarr 143Nd

60507 99Tc211kyminusrarr 99Ru 5083 kg Dominant radiation source among fission products in the

range of 104 rarr 106 years candidate for transmutation

to 100Tc1546sminusrarr 100Ru

00236 126Sn230kyminusrarr 126Sb 252 g1235dminusrarr 126Te

00508 79Se295kyminusrarr 79Br 341 g

62856 93Zr153myminusrarr 93Nb 4960 kg

lt63333 135Cs23myminusrarr 135Ba 7255 kg

01629 107Pd65myminusrarr 107Ag 1479 kg

06576 129I157myminusrarr 129Xe 7198 kg Candidate for transmutation to 130I

1236hminusrarr 130Xe

asymp 644 133Cs stable 7268 kg A few percent converted by neutron capture to 134Cs

lt10888 149Sm stable 1377 kg

lt00065 157Gd stable 8659 gdaggerThe number fraction is the fraction of the atoms of fission products that are the specified isotope notthe mass fraction The mass is computed by multiplying the number fraction by the atomic mass andnormalizing the total to one tonne per GWe-yearlowastAssumes average mass number of 115

Thermal neutron transmutation of 90Sr 137Cs 126Sn 79Se 93Zr 135Cs and 107Pd is not practical due tolow neutron absorption cross section at the neutron temperature in LWRs

Page 16 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

The amount of an isotope at a particular time can be calculated by solving the differential equation

dN(t)

dt= k minus ln 2

τN(t)

where N(t) is the amount at time t in years k is the production rate per year and τ is the half-life in yearsThe solution (assuming N(0) = 0) is

N(t) =τk

ln 2

(1minus 2minustτ

)

From this when t gtgt τ the amount of each radioactive fission product is exponentially asymptotic toa constant approximately τk ln 2 decay compensates for production The amount of these materials isproportional to the power capacity not the total amount of energy produced If stable decay products arecontinuously removed the size of the repository is roughly constant

The following table shows asymptotic fractions and asymptotic masses per GWe (not GWe-year) of shortand medium half-life fission products The fraction is measured in terms of the annual number of fissionproduct atoms which is twice the number of actinide atoms consumed

Asymptotic number fraction and mass per GWe

Isotope Fraction Mass kg Isotope Fraction Mass kg

137Cs3008yminusrarr 137Ba 2643 3072lowast 90Sr

289yminusrarr 90Y2671dminusrarr 90Zr 2398 1831

Various τ lt 1y 7999 lt7806dagger 147Pm262yminusrarr 147Sm 85852 1071

85Kr1078yminusrarr 85Rb 4226 3048Dagger 134Cs

2065yminusrarr 134Ba 1043 1185lowast

106Ru3736dminusrarr 106Rh 05773 5192 155Eu

476yminusrarr 155Gd 02266 2981125Sb

276yminusrarr 125Te 01183 1254 131I802dminusrarr 131Xe 00898 0998

lowastAssumes isotope separation of 133Cs 134Cs 135Cs and 137Cs Total caesium

accumulates at 220 kgGWe-yrdaggerThe unclassified components are assumed to have an average mass number of

115 and to have a one year half life Since they are a mixture of products with

half lives under one year the true asymptotic fraction and mass are lessDagger 85Kr is currently vented to the atmosphere

The total mass of these products exponentially approaches an asymptote of less than 5844 kg per GWeor 9934 tonnes for a 17 TWe economy If their decay products are continuously removed storage isnot a problem If not reprocessed they are diluted by their decay products and therefore their specificactivity declines sufficiently that they are not radioactively dangerous after 200ndash300 years but the volumeis proportional to kt not k In 200 years of a 17 TWe economy the amount is less than 250000 tonnes lessthan 130000 cubic yards or less than 44 feet deep on a football field Separating the streams according tohalf life reduces the 200-year stream by 85

For long-lived isotopes ie t ltlt τ on a human time scale decay does not compensate for productionApproximating 2minustτ = exp(minust ln 2τ) asymp 1minus t ln 2τ the solution is N(t) asymp kt as expected The amount ofthese fission products is in proportion to the total amount of energy produced not the power capacity

Long-lived isotopes accumulate at the rate of about 182 kg per GWe-year or about 309 tonnes per year fora 17 TWe economy 99Tc and 129I can be destroyed by transmutation but the others amounting to about124 kg per GWe-year are impractical to destroy by transmutation If other isotopes of caesium (about 147kg per GWe-year) are not separated from 135Cs the total long-term disposal stream increases to 271 kg perGWe-year (but its specific activity decreases) If stored for about 30 years before disposal about 35 kg perGWe-year of 137Cs will decay leaving about 235 kg per GWe-year or about 400 tonnes per year for a 17TWe economy if the resulting stable 137Ba were removed Surely disposal of 400 tonnes per year of theseisotopes would not be a problem

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 17

Value of one tonne of used LWR fuelseparated and reduced to metal

Value Radioactivity

Value $tonne (MevBq-s) Half life Heat

Substance Mass (gr) $gr of waste α β γ (years) Wgr238U 944100 0143 135006 42 0496 447times109

236U 3971 0143 568 45 0494 234times107

235U 7974 0143 1140 44 0657 704234U 225 0143 32 48 00532 245times105

237Np 503 0143 72 47 00294 214times106

242Pu 454 0143 65 48 00449 376times105

241Pu 111 0143 16 49 01485 1435240Pu 2302 0143 329 52 05424 656times103

239Pu 5025 0143 719 52 00516 241times104

238Pu 95 0143 14 55 00435 8774 156241Am 1084 0143 155 55 00595 432243Am 85 0143 12 53 00747 737244Cm 4 0143 1 58 00428 1811 244

Actinides 965933 0143 13812996Zr 798 305 2434 Stable94Zr 741 305 2260 Stable93Zr 718 305 2190 0010 00305 161times106

92Zr 639 305 1948 Stable91Zr 590 305 1799 Stable90Zr 391 305 1192 Stable

Fuel cladding 3877 305 1182299Tc for alloys 771 1000 7710 00846 weak 2111times105

90Sr 391 200 782 01958 29 09388Sr 350 200 700 Stable137Cs 377 200 754 0187 0479 3017 042135Cs 300 200 600 00757 0662 23times106

133Cs 1125 200 2250 Stable

Heat sources 2543 200 5086

Br 22 100 22 Stable

Mo 3345 0257 860 Stable

Ru 2177 4578 99663 Stable

Ag 76 200 152 Stable

Cd 108 200 216 Stable

Ba 2311 0560 1295 Stable

Tb 26 3000 78 Stable

Dy 14 500 7 Stable

Rh 467 50000 233500 Stable87Rb 365 1178 4300 00817 481times1010

123Te 485 139 675 gt 92times 1016

138La 1215 180 2187 00329 144 102times1011

144Nd 3488 220 7673 190 229times1015

115In 26 1000 26 01532 441times1014

(cont)

Page 18 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

Value of one tonne of used LWR fuelseparated and reduced to metal (cont)

Value Radioactivity

Value $tonne (MevBq-s) Half life Heat

Substance Mass (gr) $gr of waste α β γ (years) Wgr142Ce 2355 028 662 15 gt 50times 1016

152Gd 142 548 778 215 14times1015

147Sm 200 200 400 225 106times1011

148Sm 167 200 334 19323 70times1015

149Sm 24 200 5 Stable151Sm 88 200 17 00196 00216 90152Sm + 154Sm 419 200 838 Stable107Pd 1371 8294 113710 00093 01476 65times106

90Y 456 1000 4560 09336 weak 64 hr152Eu 035 6000 21 00831 0122 134154Eu 1095 6000 6570 0221 0123 8601155Eu 016 6000 9 0047 0087 4753

Other solid 19297 4785583H 00034 294117 1000 00156 1254He 289 173 5 Stable85Kr 308 200 616 0687 0514 1072

Xe 5332 170 9050 Stable

Gases 5643 10671

Total fission 32131 1600 513937

products

Not counted 1936

Total 1000000 065 652066

httpbrcgove-mailsAugust10Commercial Value of 1 Metric ton of used fuelpdf with radioac-tivity data from httpwwwnndcbnlgovchart

Actinides can be recycled as fuel

Zirconium from fuel pin alloys and cladding and fission products can be recycled into new fuel pin claddingand alloys

Some radioactive elements produce sufficient heat to be usable as energy sources for example in radioisotopethermal generators for space applications These would not be isotopically separated 90Sr is 53 of thetotal strontium in fission products so heat production for all strontium is 049 Wgr 137Cs is 21 of thetotal caesium in fission products so heat production for all caesium is 0088 Wgr

Technetium is valuable for alloying with rhenium and has medical applications

Gases would be separated first then actinides then highly radioactive products This would reduce the costof separating and reducing the stable and less radioactive products

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 19

Appendix ndash Fuel and waste cycles

Actinides

IFRReprocessing

PrimaryProcessing

Disposaland sale

NonradioactiveLong half lifemostly 135Cs and 93Zr30 kg per GWe-yr665 kg per GWe-yearwith all cesium

ContinuousReprocessing

584 tonnes per GWe

Medium andshort half life

1 Tonneper GWe-year

99Tc 13 kg129I 177 kg

per GWe-yr

Usedfuel

Usedfuel

Sale

Nonradioactive

20 tonnes per GWe-yr

Enrichment

Sale

Disposaland sale

Enrichment LWR andLWR reprocessing

eventually phased out

LWRLWR

Reprocessing

Depleted uraniumstorage

Plutonium

8-10 tonnesper GWestartup

IFR

Enriched uranium

Fis

sion

pro

duct

s1

Ton

ne p

er G

We-

yr

MinedUranium

Acceleratortransmutation

Unused fuel and fissionproducts for transmutation

1 tonneper GWe-yr

Page 20 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

Appendix ndash Partitioning and Transmutation

Medium- and long-lived fission products could in principle be destroyed by transmuting them to isotopesthat are stable or have short half lives which decay to stable isotopes

The following tablea shows that 99Tc 129I 93Zr 107Pd and 135Cs can be transmuted much faster thantheir natural decay (ie T Jtrans ltlt T J12) The radiotoxicity of 107Pd and 135Cs is so small it is not worth

the bother to transmute them 93Zr can be recycled into fuel pin cladding or fuel alloying If 99Tc and129I were destroyed there could be very few remaining objections to nuclear power For 90Sr and 137CsT Jtrans gtgt T J12 so transmuting them is not interesting They are biologically active but can simply be

stored for about six half lives (180 years) after which the remaining amounts (069 and 11 kgGWe-yr) canbe discarded or sold If they are initially deposited in ldquodeep geologicalrdquo storage the containment durationrequirement for the repositories is significantly shorter by a factor of 1500 than for used LWR fuel For 79Seand 126Sn T Jtrans ltlt T J12 but T Jtrans is not sufficiently small to be interesting Although the radiotoxicity

per gram of 126Sn and 79Se is large they are produced in such small amounts that their total radiotoxicityper GWe-yr is comparable to that of the others

Isotope J decay Radiotoxicity σJ(nγ) (barns) T Jtrans (years) Mass per Transmuted

mode and T J12 Svg SvGWe-yr Thermal Fast Thermal Fast GWe-yr decay mode

90Sr289yminusrarr 90Y 1411k 1664M 014 001 1600 2200 1179 kg 91Sr

963hminusrarr 91Y137Cs

3008yminusrarr 137Ba 4187k 1152M 002 001 11000 2200 2752 kg 138Cs3341mminusrarr 138Ba

99Tc211kyminusrarr 99Ru 04 8708 43 02 51 110 2177 kg 100Tc

1546sminusrarr 100Ru126Sn

230kyminusrarr 126Sb 4936 4019 005 0005 4400 4400 0814 kg 127Sn21hminusrarr 127Sb

79Se295kyminusrarr 79Br 7478 1271 01 003 2200 7300 0170 kg 80Se is stable

93Zr153myminusrarr 93Nb 0102 2097 028 003 790 730 2056 kg 94Zr is stable

135Cs23myminusrarr 135Ba 0085 1009 13 007 170 310 1187 kg 136Cs

1304dminusrarr 136Ba107Pd

65myminusrarr 107Ag 00007 8309 03 05 730 44 6922 kg 108Pd is stable129I

157myminusrarr 129Xe 0718 4921 43 014 51 160 8853 kg 130I1236hminusrarr 130Xe

T Jtrans is the transmutation half-time for isotope J

Amounts and radioactivity from ORIGEN 22 Radiotoxicity dose factors from ICRP publication 119

This graph from the Swedish Radiation Safety Authorityb[29]

0001

001

01

1

10

100Radiotoxic inventory [Svg]

102 103 104 105 106101

TRU

FP

Uranium in nature

t[y]

shows that most of the radiotoxicity of used nuclear fuel arisesfrom the transuranics which IFR would consume and thatthe radiotoxicity of fission products is below the radiotoxic-ity of uranium ore within 200-300 years Transmuting 99Tcand 129I would reduce the long-term tail of the fission productradiotoxicity from 300 years onward by 60 The ordinateis radiotoxicity per gram of the original fission products notthe remaining fission products at the time specified by the ab-scissa Fission products are stored together stable ones arenot continuously separated from radioactive ones

aData from httpusersictpit˜pub_offlectureslns005Number_2Slessarev_1pdfbhttpwwwstralsakerhetsmyndighetenseGlobalPublikationerTidskriftNucleus2007Nucleus-4-2007pdf

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 21

Appendix ndash Worldwide limitations of alternative energy sources

Details in httpwwwphysicsucsdedu~tmurphyphys239shu_energypdf by Dr Frank Shu

Solar photovoltaic

Solar photovoltaic could in principle supply 15 TWe enough to power the Earthrsquos entire current energyeconomy using about 02 of the land area of the Earth below 60 latitude

Wind

Land-based wind cannot supply more than about 18 TWe or about 12 of the current energy economy

Ocean currents

The Kuroshio current which flows northward in the western Pacific past Taiwan and Japan has a powerof about 100 GW Assuming 50 efficiency of extraction allows about 50 GWe to be extracted The gulfstream flows twice as fast producing eight times as much power allowing about 400 GWe to be extractedExtracting significant power from ocean currents anywhere in the world would have profound effects onclimate

Coastal ocean waves

Assuming 50 efficiency of energy extraction ocean waves impinging on all the shorelines of the Earth couldprovide about 024 TWe or about 16 of the current energy economy

Geothermal

Geothermal sources cannot provide more than about 04 TWe or about 27 of the current energy economy

Tides

Energy extractable from tidal sources amounts to about 3 GWe worldwide or about 002 of the currentenergy economy It is only economically feasible in bays such as the Bay of Fundy which concentrate tidesto heights of as much as 5 meters Damming such bays has effects on the resonant frequency of nearby baysand estuaries profoundly altering currents and tides in nearby areas

Hydroelectric

The Earthrsquos land area is 148times 1012 m2 Average rainfall is 12 meters per year Water density is 103 kgm3

Total rainfall is thus about 18times 1017 kg Dropping 100 meters releases 18times 1017 kgtimes 98 ms2 times 100 m =

176times 1020 joule Spread out over a year 315times 107 s gives 56 TW Assuming 90 efficiency yields 5 TWeThe total available is less perhaps 35 TWe if polar regions are excluded Hydroelectric installations observeabout 30 capacity factor yielding total worldwide availability of about 1 TWe-yryr or about 67 of thecurrent energy economy

Total

Excluding solar photovoltaic and ocean currents alternative electricity sources could yield about 3443 TWeworldwide or about 23 of the current energy economy

Page 22 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

In addition to the 5-used-fuel ldquowasterdquo there are about 900000 tons of depleted-uranium ldquowasterdquo left overfrom the enrichment process containing more than 90 of the energy in the uranium that was mined

The rate at which waste generates heat is a more important factor than its volume With transuranicspresent ndash as in what we currently call ldquowasterdquo ndash the long-term capacity of a repository is determined by theheat those transuranics will generate millennia hence With them removed the primary determining factorbecomes heat generated by 137Cs and 90Sr With transuranics removed but 137Cs and 90Sr remaining thecapacity of a repository is increased by a factor of about five compared to the current technology With only137Cs and 90Sr remaining the capacity is enormously increased [1]

A reactor (IFR or otherwise) produces about 1 tonne of fission products per GWe-year The current USLWR fleet produces about 90 GWe-year per year thereby generating about 90 tonnes of fission productsper year about 5 of the total ldquowasterdquo or about 300 milligrams per American Radioactive 137Cs and90Sr amount to about 39 kg per GWe-year Not all isotopes of caesium and strontium are radioactive andisotopic separation is costly so it makes more sense to consider total caesium and strontium fission productswhich amount to 92 kgGWe-year about 83 Tonnesyr or about 24 milligrams per American per year Ifall those fission products within the 59160 tonnes of ldquowasterdquo accumulated from 1957 until 2006 were spreadon a football field the pile would be about 044 inches deep A pile of all fission products including thosethat are nonradioactive or have very short half lives would be 48 inches deep (but it would melt)

If the current American supply of LWRs were replaced by IFRs the stream of ldquowasterdquo would be reduced from1818 to 90 tonnes per year and if left mixed instead of separated those 90 tonnes would be less radiotoxicthan mined uranium before 200ndash300 years instead of 300000 years as for LWR ldquowasterdquo

The nonradioactive short-lived and long-lived fission products could be separated Strontium and caesiumconstitute 9 of fission products 6 of fission products (99Tc and 129I) have very long half lives but canbe transmuted to short-lived isotopes (1546 seconds and 1236 hours) by neutron absorption within thereactor thereby effectively destroying them 93Zr another 2 of fission products can be recycled into fuelpin cladding or alloying (where it doesnrsquot matter that itrsquos radioactive and the radioactivity is low-energybeta ndash electron ndash emission anyway) The remaining 89 are less radiotoxic than mined uranium before five toten years The stream requiring long-term storage (strontium and caesium) would thereby be substantiallyreduced to about 92 kgGWe-yr The specific activity (heat generation per kilogram) of the remainderwould be reduced Other fission products (primarily 137Cs and 90Sr) could in principle be destroyed byneutron transmutation but it takes longer than their normal decay Even if they are simply stored howevertheir specific activity is so low that storage is not a significant problem At an average of $16 milliontonne(some much higher) the appreciable commercial value of many fission productsa reduces the storage problemeven further

If all current US electric power generating capacity were replaced with IFR the stream of fission productswould amount to 450 tonnes per year of which 41 tonnes require long-term custody This is less than onequarter the quantity of 5-used fuel that is generated by the LWRs that supply about 20 of our presentelectric power needs

A 17 TWe energy economy powered by IFRs would produce 1700 tonnes of fission products per year orabout 65 less than the 1818 tonnes of 5-used fuel removed from the LWRs that currently supply onlyabout 53 of our energy needs Long-lived fission products (mostly 93Zr and 135Cs) amount to about 131kg per GWe-year or 223 tonnes (730 milligrams per American) altogether per year 93Zr could be recycledinto fuel-pins so it neednrsquot be stored 93Zr and 135Cs would occupy about 121 yd3 or about 14 inch ifspread on a football field They have such low specific activity that they are not considered to be dangerousIf 133Cs (stable) 134Cs (2065y) and 137Cs (3008y) are not removed the amount is 269 yd3 per year

Fission products with half-lives less than thirty years are less radiotoxic than mined natural uranium before200ndash300 years so custody is simple for them Production and radioactive decay offset each other expo-nentially approaching an asymptote of about 584 tonnes of radioactive material per GWe (not GWe-year)If stable decay products are continuously removed a constant capacity is needed for radioactive materialstorage preferably co-located with each IFR

That is storage and disposal are not problems and therefore IFR waste is not a problem

ahttpbrcgove-mailsAugust10Commercial Value of 1 Metric ton of used fuelpdf

Page 8 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

Refer to the appendices for more details

Availability of nuclear fuel

For LWRs the concentration of 235U the fissile isotope is typically enriched from the natural 071 toabout 42 leaving behind a supply of uranium depleted in 235U that is about 57 times the amount ofldquoreactor graderdquo enriched uranium Combining this and the 4-5 fuel efficiency of LWR we extract lessthan 06 of the energy in mined uranium In a reactor some of the 238U is transmuted into 239Pu andother transuranics which are directly usable as IFR fuel In an IFR energy economy once started thosetransuranics rather than 235U provide much of the fission energy and the neutrons needed to transmute 238Uinto more transuranics That is (a) enrichment is not necessary and (b) the currently left-behind depleteduranium is valuable as future fuel

Using a rule of thumb that fissioning 09 kg of actinides yields 1 GWth-day of energy and generating 1 GWerequires 3 GWth to be expended 1 GWe-yr requires 36525 times 3 times 09 = 981 kg asymp 1 tonne of actinides tobe converted to fission products If mined uranium were used to 100 capacity instead of 06 total USpower demand of about 1700 GWe would require about 1700 tonnes of new uranium per year

IFRs could use the current US supply of LWR ldquowasterdquo a substance of which we are desperately eager tobe rid as fuel If nothing is done other than to build an IFR to replace each LWR as it reaches the endof its useful lifea about 50 tonnes of start-up fuel per IFR plus one tonne per year of make-up uraniumthereafterb would be needed That is assuming there are 900000 tonnes of LWR ldquowasterdquo on hand (usedfuel plus depleted uranium) there is enough fuel from that alone for about 10000 years without miningmilling refining or enriching any new uranium

If all current US electric generating capacity were replaced with IFRs about 450 tonnes of makeup fuelwould be needed per year that is there is enough fuel for about 2000 years If the entire energy economywere powered by IFR about 1700 tonnes per year would be needed that is there is enough fuel from currentLWR ldquowasterdquo alone for almost 530 years Is it really ldquowasterdquo

Uranium is four times more common than tin and ten times more common than silver Currently knownreserves of uranium in ore of current commercial grade contain about five million tonnes of the metalc Thatis enough for about 4300 years if used in 90 GWe capacity of US LWRs or about 4800 years if all 1700GWe US power demand were supplied by IFRs Current total worldwide energy demand is about fourtimes US energy demand so if the entire world were to be powered by IFRs at current demand there isenough uranium counting only known reserves profitably recoverable at $138kgU for about 1200 years

The picture isnrsquot so bleak however because the efficiency of use of uranium by IFRs means the fuel costper kWh would be the same as for LWRs at $1380006 asymp $23000kgU or about 0001centkWh This makesit economically feasible to use lower grade ores or more importantly to extract uranium from seawaterwhere there is estimated to be about 45 billion tonnes this is enough for more than a million years ofcurrent worldwide energy demand Even this however is a substantial under-estimate because uraniumis continuously flowing into the oceans from rivers That is uranium alone is an essentially inexhaustibleresource Thorium which could in principle serve as fertile future fuel is four times more common thanuranium so even without river inflow all current worldwide power needs could be supplied for about fivemillion years using nuclear fission Nuclear fission is an effectively inexhaustible energy resource

Weapons proliferation

The ldquoIntegralrdquo in IFR means that the entire system including fuel reprocessing is integrated in one facilityActinides go into an IFR none come out except to start a new IFR Opportunities for theft of partly-used

aWe wouldnrsquot replace LWRs prematurely because the IFR system functions symbiotically with the current fuel cyclebIFR fuel has to be asymp 20 fissile (mainly PU-239) and 80 fertile (U-238) Once an IFR has been loaded it can generate its

own fissile material from fertile material so all it would need to keep running is one tonne of unenriched uranium per GWe-yearc httpwwwworld-nuclearorginfoinf75html

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 9

fuel would be reduced because it would not be transported to a separate facility for processing

Unlike LWRs an IFR power economy once started does not need its uranium fuel to be enriched in 235UThis means that it is not necessary to have any facility to enrich uranium for other than military purposesA reactor owner does need however either ironclad international guarantees of assured fuel supply or theability to reprocess partly used fuel

The ability to reprocess fuel implies the presence of a cadre of professionals who are familiar with most of thetechniques for making weapons-grade materials The mixture of actinides taken out of IFR for reprocessingpresents more difficult radiation thermal chemical and metallurgical problems to would-be weaponeersthan those taken from LWR It is unsuitable for direct use in weapons primarily because of the presenceof 243Am 241Pu and non-fissionable 238Pu 240Pu and 242Pu but is admirably suited as IFR fuel 241Puemits 50 times more heat 5000 times more neutrons and 100 times more gamma radiation than 239PuThis could damage a weapon or cause predetonation and makes maintenance of fine mechanical tolerancesdifficult Expensive remote assembly is mandatory Separating 239Pu from nearby isotopes is more difficultthan separating 238U from 235U first because the mass difference is smaller and second because synthesizingthe gaseous compound PuF6 needed for centrifugal or gas diffusion isotope separation is difficult Eventhough the problem of extracting weapons-grade materials from LWR is easier than for IFR nobody hasdone so Every nuclear weapons program has depended upon enriched uranium or upon purpose-builtreactors optimized to produce 239Pu and these have been nation-scale projects not backyard garage-scaleprojects that a terrorist cell might successfully undertake The simple conclusion is that used LWR fuel isjust about the most difficult material from which to produce nuclear weapons [3] A Lawrence LivermoreNational Laboratory study [10] concluded that spent IFR fuel cannot be used to make a nuclear weaponwithout significant further processing

Even if the difficulties of producing weapons from used reactor fuel could be overcome IFR presents nonew problems of weapons proliferation because reprocessing and enrichment are not substantially differentfrom the standpoint of international oversight No countryrsquos desire or ability to produce nuclear weaponshas ever been affected by any other countryrsquos decision to reprocess or not to reprocess used municipalreactor fuel Every advanced industrial country could in principle produce nuclear weapons independentlyof any other countryrsquos decision to reprocess or not to reprocess used municipal reactor fuel If a countrycannot be trusted with this technology do not sell reactors or fuel reprocessing systems to them The samelong-distance transmission that would be required for solar power would serve their needs

Costs

GE estimates their version of IFR known as S-PRISMa can be built for about $15-2W or $22W after a90 capacity factor is incorporated [11] A GEHitachi consortium estimates they could produce IFR for$12-14W [3] The Diablo Canyon generating station produces electricity for 5cent per kWh The Palo Verdestation was constructed for $179W and produces electricity for 43cent per kWh

T Boone Pickens proposed to build a 4 GWe wind farm The estimated cost ballooned to $3W or $15Wafter incorporating a 21 capacity factor [3] The project was abandoned The Sacramento Municipal UtilityDistrict (SMUD) reports a 15 capacity factor for solar photovoltaic ldquoNo system with capacity factors thislow is a viable energy producing systemrdquo [11] After incorporating these capacity factors the effectiveconstruction costs increase to $4000-$8500kWe for wind and $16000-$60000kWe for solar SMUDestimates a 69-year financial payback for solar photovoltaicb Because wind and solar are diffuse sources$11-13 trillion would be needed for grid upgrades [3] adding another $750kWe to the construction costBecause they are diffuse and erratic sources additional costs for storage would be necessary

In 2017 the lowest-price solar cells cost $180 per peak watt With 15 capacity factor this is $12 peraverage watt Amortized over 25 years at 5 and deducting the four-plus year energy payback capital costalone is 117cent per kWh (181cent at 10) The GVEA 40 battery in Fairbanks Alaska is the largest utility-scale

aSuper Power Reactor Inherently Safe ModularbLifetime is only 30ndash40 years See httpwwwostigovbridgeservletspurl755637-oDWEJRwebviewable755637pdf

or httpwwwglobalspeccomLearnMoreOptics_Optical_ComponentsOptoelectronicsPhotovoltaic_Cells

Page 10 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

storage battery It weighs 1200 tonnes provides 10 MWh storage and cost $350Wh Amortized over fiveyears this is 57centkWha To have constant output the panel capacity needs to be twice the demand ndash halffor immediate use and half to charge batteries so the capital cost for cells plus storage is 291cent per kWhThis does not include mounting transportation operation maintenance land recycling or grid upgradesThe equation used to calculate amortized cost is

A(n) = rA(nminus 1)minus p

where A(0) is the initial cost per watt and A(n) is the amount remaining to be paid after n payments ofp dollars at an interest rate of 100(r minus 1) per payment period Solving this equation for A(n) settingA(n) = 0 and solving for p gives

p = A(0) rnr minus 1

rn minus 1

The cost per watt hour is pH where H is hours per payment period If the payment period is one yearand power is provided continuously H is 8766 (36525times24) Because solar panels have a 45 year energypayback period the final value needs to be multiplied by n(nminus 45) where n is years

The following table compares construction costs for eight renewable sources [3] Costs are per peak kWenot average kWe The capacity factor is not included

Cost Cost Cost CostSource $kWe Source $kWe Source $kWe Source $kWeWind (onshore) 800 Wind (offshore) 1700 Hydro 2000 Geothermal 2100Biomass 2300 Solar (thermal) 2400 Tidal 2800 Solar (PV) 5900

The following table compares operating and construction costs for six electric power technologies [3] [12][13] External grid upgrade and storage costs are not included Since 1981 nuclear power utilities havebeen paying 01centkWh into the Federal Nuclear Waste Fund so LWR decommissioning and ldquowasterdquo handlingcosts are included as internal costs

Operating Average Effective FederalCost Construction Capacity Construction Life Delivered Subsidy

Fuel centkWh Cost $kWe Factor Cost $kWedagger (yrs) centkWhDagger centkWhlowast

LWR Nuclear 49 1000-2000 gt 90 1111-2222 50 515ndash541 0210Coal 60-63 1000-1500 gt 90 1111-1667 50 625ndash668 0056Hydro 40-80 2000 asymp 33 6000 100 469ndash869 0136Gas 76-92 400-800 gt 90 444-888 30 777ndash954 0060Wind 49-100 1000-2000 asymp 21 4762-9524 20 762ndash1543 3533Solar PV 150-300 6000-9000 asymp 15 40000-60000 30 3021ndash5282 23131daggerConstruction cost capacity factorDaggerOperating cost + construction cost ( capacity factor times lifetime ) Amortization not includedlowasthttpwwweiagovanalysisrequestssubsidy tables ES4 and ES5 for 2013

Particulate emissions alone from coal-fired power plants cost $165 billion [3] and cause 30100 prematuredeaths 603000 asthma attacks and 5130000 lost work days per year in the United States alone [14]

Nuclear power has the lowest delivered costs in ten of twelve countries studied [15] (India China and Russiawere not included) The two that did not have the lowest costs were the United States and Korea Thereport did not address the significant costs in the United States of protracted litigation and continuouslyrevised regulations and slow licensing of individual reactors It would be helpful if the Nuclear RegulatoryCommission were to adopt the French system of licensing reactor designs instead of individual reactors IFRs

aProf Nate Lewis in a private seminar Where will we get our energy at Caltech Jet Propulsion Laboratory estimated40-50centkWh

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 11

would be less expensive to build and operate than current technology because they are simpler standardizeddesigns instead of complicated one-off designs [3] The system is further substantially simplified because thecoolant operates at atmospheric pressure instead of 160 atmospheres and it absorbs essentially all neutronsthat escape the core so special alloys and over-designing are not needed to compensate for containmentvessel embrittlement caused by neutron damage and there are much fewer radioactive structural neutronactivation products

When external costs are included nuclear costs are estimated [16] to be about one tenth as much as coalCO2 emissions are explicitly excluded from costs of fossil-fuel systems Nuclear utilities have been paying01centkWh into the Federal Waste Disposal Fund since 1981 for used nuclear fuel disposal and reactor decom-missioning these costs are included as internal costs for LWR The radiological cost of mining is includedbut for IFR that would be irrelevant since there is already enough uranium above ground for several cen-turies For IFR fuel would be cheaper than free for a few hundred years because it would consume the LWRldquowasterdquo of which we are desperately eager to be rid and disposal of IFR waste would be far less expensivethan disposal of 5-used LWR fuel so IFR must have much lower than one tenth the operating cost of coal

The United States has already invested $8 Billion in the Yucca Mountain repository It is estimated to cost$436 Billion to complete [3] and current waste would require about 8-10 times more capacity than YuccaMountain would have at completion IFR would make Yucca Mountain irrelevant and is even more importantnow that the Obama administration has canceled Yucca Mountain Why is the Nevada Congressionaldelegation not insisting that the IFR demonstration project be restarted

Tony Blairrsquos government commissioned a study by Sir Nicholas Stern former vice president and chiefeconomist for the World Bank He recommended committing 1 of global GDP to reduce CO2 emissions to25-70 below current levels by mid century and that increased extreme weather costs alone could reach1 of GDP [3] For the United States that amount of todayrsquos GDP would be $290 billion per year In thenext section we estimate that producing an energy economy entirely powered by IFR could be accomplishedin fewer than 65 years Spending $290 billion per year on CO2 remediation during that interval would cost$188 trillion (in todayrsquos dollars) At $22BGWe for IFR 17 TWe would cost $374 trilliona ndash 20 asmuch ndash and would essentially eliminate CO2 emissions not reduce them by 25-70

What can be done

As admirable as they are conservation biofuels wind geothermal tides waves ocean currents and hydroalone or together cannot power any economy nor can they destroy the 59160 tonnes of ldquowasterdquo from thefirst 53 years of US LWR operations and more accumulated since 2006 Wind and solar are much moreexpensive than IFR There are no good hydro sites that have been exploited A 2017 study [17] concludedthat a 100 renewable-electricity system might not be physically feasible let alone economically viableCoal is terrible (and more expensive as well) Natural gas is more benign than coal but still produces CO2Oil produces CO2 and importing it and protecting access to overseas sources is expensive in both blood andnational treasure Solar is much more expensive than IFR and wouldnrsquot destroy waste That leaves IFR asthe only alternative that is both sufficient and economically viable

There are no serious plans for electric airplanes ships or heavy construction or farm equipment so someliquid hydrocarbon fuels will be needed for the foreseeable future Hydrogen is at present a nonstarterbecause of the storage problem Fortunately we know how to make hydrocarbon fuels from energy + water+ CO2b Using such fuels or hydrogen if the storage problem is solved (or maybe boron [3]) it is possibletherefore to convert the entire US energy economy to electricity provided mostly by IFR with hydrowind solar geothermal or biofuels where appropriate

The current US economy could be powered by about 17 TWe Each 1 GWe reactor needs 8ndash10 tonnesof startup fissile material which would at first largely be actinides from used LWR fuel and plutoniumand enriched uranium from decommissioned weapons The current US inventory of fissionable actinides is

aGEHitachi estimates $21-24 trillion ndash 11-13 of $188 trillionbThe Fischer-Tropsch process

Page 12 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

about 900 tonnes plus about 225 tonnes of weapons-grade 235Ua or enough to start up only about 110-140GWe of capacity using IFR With breeding that IFR fleet could have a sustained growth rate of 5 per yearor maybe more After startup the deployment rate would gradually accelerate from 5ndash7 per year helpedalong by actinides from still-operating LWRs and reach the desired 17 TWe goal within about 40ndash50 yearsor sooner to the extent renewable sources are appropriate or if uranium enrichment is continued

A single complete and permanent solution to all energy pollution nuclear waste and CO2 emission problemsis within our grasp All obstacles to that solution are political abetted and perpetuated by ignoranceintentional falsehoods irrational hysteria and opportunistic demagoguery not scientific technological orengineering problems Competition for energy resources is frequently blamed for wars IFR would eliminatethat excuse

Fast breeder reactors with fuel recycling will be developed There is no credible alternative There is an 800MWe reactor in service in Russiab and a 1200 MWe reactor is under development China has contractedto buy a BN-800 reactor from Russia South Korea has announced a 400 GWe fast-neutron reactor will beavailable for sale in 2020 India is building a prototype fast-neutron reactor to exploit their vast reservesof thorium China and Japan are making progress on their own designs American experts are retiring ordying far faster then younger ones are being prepared The United States will soon be a third-world countryin energy technology

Should the United States spend $188 trillion on CO2 reduction and mitigation $1075 trillion on coal sootdamage $68ndash102 trillion on solar cells $25 trillion on wind turbines $475 trillion on grid upgrades ndash about$130minus170 trillion altogether (and none of those would destroy one gram of nuclear waste) and suffer 2million unnecessary deaths due to coal emissions or spend $24 trillion on IFR (and render all nuclear wasteharmless)

For me the answer is obvious There is no time to waste We really ought to get started

Acknowledgment

This work benefited substantially from constructive criticism by the late Dr George S Stanford

Further reading

[1] Charles E Till and Yoon Il Chang Plentiful energy (2011) ISBN 978-1466384606

[2] William H Hannum Gerald E Marsh and George S Stanford Smarter use of nuclear waste ScientificAmerican (December 2005)httpswwwscientificamericancomarticlesmarter-use-of-nuclear-waste

[3] Tom Blees Prescription For The Planet The painless remedy for our energy and environmental crises(2008) ISBN 1-4196-5582-5 Impressive technical content plus off-putting gratuitous political insultsand nutty ideas about UN control of world energy

[4] D C Wade and Y I Chang The Integral Fast Reactor Physics of operation and safety NuclearScience and Engineering 100 4 (December 1988) 507ndash524

[5] Matthew D Eisaman Keshav Parajuly Alexander Tuganov Craig Eldershaw Noring Chang andKarl A Littau CO2 extraction from seawater using bipolar membrane electrodialysis Energy amp En-vironmental Science 5 6 (May 2012)

[6] National Renewable Energy Laboratory Land-use requirements of modern wind power plants in theUnited States httpwwwnrelgovdocsfy09osti45834pdf (2009)

a141 of LWR waste (httpwwwwhatisnuclearcomarticleswastehtmlcomposition) plus military inventory of 45tonnes 239Pu and 225 tonnes 235U (httpdsp-psdpwgscgccaCollection-RLoPBdPBPbp461-ehtm)

bhttpsenwikipediaorgwikiBN-800_reactor

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 13

[7] David Baurac Passively safe reactors rely on nature to keep them coolhttpwwwneanlgovAbouthnlogos-winter02-psrshtml (Winter 2002)

[8] United Nations Scientific Committee for the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) Scientific AnnexD Health effects due to radiation from the Chernobyl accident in Sources and Effects of IonizingRadiation 2008 Report to the General Assembly Volume II ISBN-13 978-92-1-142280-1 (2011)

[9] United Nations Scientific Committee for the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) Chapter IIIScientific Findings Part A Levels and effects of radiation exposure due to the nuclear accident afterthe great east-Japan earthquake and tsunami in Sources and Effects of Ionizing Radiation 2013 Reportto the General Assembly Volume I ISBN 978-92-1-142291-7 e-ISBN 978-92-1-056501-1 (2014)

[10] D L Goldman Some Implications of Using IFR High-Transuranic Plutonium in a Prolifer-ant Nuclear Weapon Program Technical Report CONDU-94-0199 Lawrence Livermore NationalLaboratory (March 1994)

[11] P E Donald E Lutz PGampE solar plants in the desert Truth about energy (2007)

[12] Nuclear Energy Agency Projected costs of generating electricityhttpwwwieaorgtextbasenppdffree2005ElecCostPDF (2005)

[13] Nuclear Energy Agency Projected costs of generating electricityhttpwwwieaorgTextbasenpsumElecCost2010SUMpdf (2010)

[14] Mark Fischetti The human cost of energy Scientific American (September 2011)

[15] Uranium Information Center (UIC) The Economics of Nuclear Power Technical report AustralianUranium Association Melbourne (March 2008)

[16] European Commission Research team of the ExternE project serieshttpwwwexterneinfoteamhtml (2007)

[17] B W Heard B W Brook T M L Wigley and C J A Bradshaw Burden of proof A comprehensivereview of the feasibility of 100 renewable-electricity systems Renewable and Sustainable EnergyReviews 76 (2017) 1122ndash1133

[18] William H Hannum The technology of the integral fast reactor and its associated fuel cycle Progressin Nuclear Energy 31 1ndash2 (1997)

[19] George S Stanford Integral fast reactors Source of safe abundant non-polluting powerhttpwwwnationalcenterorgNPA378html

[20] Gerald E Marsh and George S Stanford Bombs reprocessing and reactor grade plutonium Forumon Physics amp Society of the American Physical Society Newsletter 35 2 (April 2006)httphttpwwwthesciencecouncilcomindexphpgeorge-stanford

[21] Charles Till Plentiful energy and the IFR story The Republic News and Issues Magazine (June-September 2005) httpwwwsustainablenuclearorgPADspad0509tillhtml

[22] The Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP) httpwwwgnepenergygov

[23] Vic Reis Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP) in American Nuclear Society meetingReno NV American Nuclear Society (5 June 2006)httpwwwsustainablenuclearorgPADspad0606reispdf

[24] Doug Lightfoot Wallace Manheimer Dan Meneley Duane Pendergast and George S Stanford NuclearFission Fuel Is Inexhaustible in Climate Change Technology Conference (10ndash12 May 2006)Ottawa Ontario Canada

Page 14 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

[25] George S Stanford LWR Recycle Necessity or Impediment in ldquoGlobal 2003rdquo ANS WinterMeeting New Orleans American Nuclear Society (16ndash20 November 2003)httpwwwnationalcenterorgLWRStanfordpdf

[26] Senators Richard Lugar and Even Bayh A nuclear fuel bank advocated Chicago Tribune (22 October2006)

[27] Gerald E Marsh and George S Stanford Yucca Mountain The Right DecisionhttpwwwnationalcenterorgNPA415html (June 2002)

[28] Steve Kirsch httpskirschcompoliticsglobalwarmingifrhtm Summary blog

[29] Janne Wallenius Ateranvandning av langlivat avfall och sluten branslecykel mojlig i nya reaktortyper(Reuse of long-lived waste and a closed fuel cycle possible in new reactor types) Nucleus (April 2007)15ndash19

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 15

Appendix ndash Fission product yields from light-water reactors

See httpenwikipediaorgwikiFission_product_yield Sorted by half life

Number Isotope decay path Mass per

fractiondagger and half life GWe-year Comment

28336 131I802dminusrarr 131Xe 3150 kg Reduced by 195times10minus14 per year ndash 06 ng after one year

554478 Various lt 1y 5411 kglowast Decay to stable products

03912 106Ru3736dminusrarr 106Rh 3519 kg

asymp 035 134Cs2065yminusrarr 134Ba 3980 kg Created in the reactor from 133Cs by neutron capture

22713 147Pm262yminusrarr 147Sm 2833 kg

00297 125Sb276yminusrarr 125Te 315 g

lt00330 155Eu476yminusrarr 155Gd 434 g Mostly destroyed by neutron capture in the reactor

02717 85Kr1078yminusrarr 85Rb 1960 kg Currently released to the atmosphere

lt00003 113mCd141yminusrarr 113mIn 288 g Mostly destroyed by neutron capture in the reactor

57518 90Sr289yminusrarr 90Y 4393 kg Principal medium-term radiation and heat source319hminusrarr 90Zr

60899 137Cs3008yminusrarr 137Ba 7080 kg Principal medium-term radiation and heat source

lt04203 151Sm90yminusrarr 151Eu 5385 kg Mostly destroyed by neutron capture in the reactor

1e18yminusrarr 147Pm 151Eu is essentially stable262yminusrarr 147Sm1e11yminusrarr 143Nd

60507 99Tc211kyminusrarr 99Ru 5083 kg Dominant radiation source among fission products in the

range of 104 rarr 106 years candidate for transmutation

to 100Tc1546sminusrarr 100Ru

00236 126Sn230kyminusrarr 126Sb 252 g1235dminusrarr 126Te

00508 79Se295kyminusrarr 79Br 341 g

62856 93Zr153myminusrarr 93Nb 4960 kg

lt63333 135Cs23myminusrarr 135Ba 7255 kg

01629 107Pd65myminusrarr 107Ag 1479 kg

06576 129I157myminusrarr 129Xe 7198 kg Candidate for transmutation to 130I

1236hminusrarr 130Xe

asymp 644 133Cs stable 7268 kg A few percent converted by neutron capture to 134Cs

lt10888 149Sm stable 1377 kg

lt00065 157Gd stable 8659 gdaggerThe number fraction is the fraction of the atoms of fission products that are the specified isotope notthe mass fraction The mass is computed by multiplying the number fraction by the atomic mass andnormalizing the total to one tonne per GWe-yearlowastAssumes average mass number of 115

Thermal neutron transmutation of 90Sr 137Cs 126Sn 79Se 93Zr 135Cs and 107Pd is not practical due tolow neutron absorption cross section at the neutron temperature in LWRs

Page 16 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

The amount of an isotope at a particular time can be calculated by solving the differential equation

dN(t)

dt= k minus ln 2

τN(t)

where N(t) is the amount at time t in years k is the production rate per year and τ is the half-life in yearsThe solution (assuming N(0) = 0) is

N(t) =τk

ln 2

(1minus 2minustτ

)

From this when t gtgt τ the amount of each radioactive fission product is exponentially asymptotic toa constant approximately τk ln 2 decay compensates for production The amount of these materials isproportional to the power capacity not the total amount of energy produced If stable decay products arecontinuously removed the size of the repository is roughly constant

The following table shows asymptotic fractions and asymptotic masses per GWe (not GWe-year) of shortand medium half-life fission products The fraction is measured in terms of the annual number of fissionproduct atoms which is twice the number of actinide atoms consumed

Asymptotic number fraction and mass per GWe

Isotope Fraction Mass kg Isotope Fraction Mass kg

137Cs3008yminusrarr 137Ba 2643 3072lowast 90Sr

289yminusrarr 90Y2671dminusrarr 90Zr 2398 1831

Various τ lt 1y 7999 lt7806dagger 147Pm262yminusrarr 147Sm 85852 1071

85Kr1078yminusrarr 85Rb 4226 3048Dagger 134Cs

2065yminusrarr 134Ba 1043 1185lowast

106Ru3736dminusrarr 106Rh 05773 5192 155Eu

476yminusrarr 155Gd 02266 2981125Sb

276yminusrarr 125Te 01183 1254 131I802dminusrarr 131Xe 00898 0998

lowastAssumes isotope separation of 133Cs 134Cs 135Cs and 137Cs Total caesium

accumulates at 220 kgGWe-yrdaggerThe unclassified components are assumed to have an average mass number of

115 and to have a one year half life Since they are a mixture of products with

half lives under one year the true asymptotic fraction and mass are lessDagger 85Kr is currently vented to the atmosphere

The total mass of these products exponentially approaches an asymptote of less than 5844 kg per GWeor 9934 tonnes for a 17 TWe economy If their decay products are continuously removed storage isnot a problem If not reprocessed they are diluted by their decay products and therefore their specificactivity declines sufficiently that they are not radioactively dangerous after 200ndash300 years but the volumeis proportional to kt not k In 200 years of a 17 TWe economy the amount is less than 250000 tonnes lessthan 130000 cubic yards or less than 44 feet deep on a football field Separating the streams according tohalf life reduces the 200-year stream by 85

For long-lived isotopes ie t ltlt τ on a human time scale decay does not compensate for productionApproximating 2minustτ = exp(minust ln 2τ) asymp 1minus t ln 2τ the solution is N(t) asymp kt as expected The amount ofthese fission products is in proportion to the total amount of energy produced not the power capacity

Long-lived isotopes accumulate at the rate of about 182 kg per GWe-year or about 309 tonnes per year fora 17 TWe economy 99Tc and 129I can be destroyed by transmutation but the others amounting to about124 kg per GWe-year are impractical to destroy by transmutation If other isotopes of caesium (about 147kg per GWe-year) are not separated from 135Cs the total long-term disposal stream increases to 271 kg perGWe-year (but its specific activity decreases) If stored for about 30 years before disposal about 35 kg perGWe-year of 137Cs will decay leaving about 235 kg per GWe-year or about 400 tonnes per year for a 17TWe economy if the resulting stable 137Ba were removed Surely disposal of 400 tonnes per year of theseisotopes would not be a problem

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 17

Value of one tonne of used LWR fuelseparated and reduced to metal

Value Radioactivity

Value $tonne (MevBq-s) Half life Heat

Substance Mass (gr) $gr of waste α β γ (years) Wgr238U 944100 0143 135006 42 0496 447times109

236U 3971 0143 568 45 0494 234times107

235U 7974 0143 1140 44 0657 704234U 225 0143 32 48 00532 245times105

237Np 503 0143 72 47 00294 214times106

242Pu 454 0143 65 48 00449 376times105

241Pu 111 0143 16 49 01485 1435240Pu 2302 0143 329 52 05424 656times103

239Pu 5025 0143 719 52 00516 241times104

238Pu 95 0143 14 55 00435 8774 156241Am 1084 0143 155 55 00595 432243Am 85 0143 12 53 00747 737244Cm 4 0143 1 58 00428 1811 244

Actinides 965933 0143 13812996Zr 798 305 2434 Stable94Zr 741 305 2260 Stable93Zr 718 305 2190 0010 00305 161times106

92Zr 639 305 1948 Stable91Zr 590 305 1799 Stable90Zr 391 305 1192 Stable

Fuel cladding 3877 305 1182299Tc for alloys 771 1000 7710 00846 weak 2111times105

90Sr 391 200 782 01958 29 09388Sr 350 200 700 Stable137Cs 377 200 754 0187 0479 3017 042135Cs 300 200 600 00757 0662 23times106

133Cs 1125 200 2250 Stable

Heat sources 2543 200 5086

Br 22 100 22 Stable

Mo 3345 0257 860 Stable

Ru 2177 4578 99663 Stable

Ag 76 200 152 Stable

Cd 108 200 216 Stable

Ba 2311 0560 1295 Stable

Tb 26 3000 78 Stable

Dy 14 500 7 Stable

Rh 467 50000 233500 Stable87Rb 365 1178 4300 00817 481times1010

123Te 485 139 675 gt 92times 1016

138La 1215 180 2187 00329 144 102times1011

144Nd 3488 220 7673 190 229times1015

115In 26 1000 26 01532 441times1014

(cont)

Page 18 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

Value of one tonne of used LWR fuelseparated and reduced to metal (cont)

Value Radioactivity

Value $tonne (MevBq-s) Half life Heat

Substance Mass (gr) $gr of waste α β γ (years) Wgr142Ce 2355 028 662 15 gt 50times 1016

152Gd 142 548 778 215 14times1015

147Sm 200 200 400 225 106times1011

148Sm 167 200 334 19323 70times1015

149Sm 24 200 5 Stable151Sm 88 200 17 00196 00216 90152Sm + 154Sm 419 200 838 Stable107Pd 1371 8294 113710 00093 01476 65times106

90Y 456 1000 4560 09336 weak 64 hr152Eu 035 6000 21 00831 0122 134154Eu 1095 6000 6570 0221 0123 8601155Eu 016 6000 9 0047 0087 4753

Other solid 19297 4785583H 00034 294117 1000 00156 1254He 289 173 5 Stable85Kr 308 200 616 0687 0514 1072

Xe 5332 170 9050 Stable

Gases 5643 10671

Total fission 32131 1600 513937

products

Not counted 1936

Total 1000000 065 652066

httpbrcgove-mailsAugust10Commercial Value of 1 Metric ton of used fuelpdf with radioac-tivity data from httpwwwnndcbnlgovchart

Actinides can be recycled as fuel

Zirconium from fuel pin alloys and cladding and fission products can be recycled into new fuel pin claddingand alloys

Some radioactive elements produce sufficient heat to be usable as energy sources for example in radioisotopethermal generators for space applications These would not be isotopically separated 90Sr is 53 of thetotal strontium in fission products so heat production for all strontium is 049 Wgr 137Cs is 21 of thetotal caesium in fission products so heat production for all caesium is 0088 Wgr

Technetium is valuable for alloying with rhenium and has medical applications

Gases would be separated first then actinides then highly radioactive products This would reduce the costof separating and reducing the stable and less radioactive products

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 19

Appendix ndash Fuel and waste cycles

Actinides

IFRReprocessing

PrimaryProcessing

Disposaland sale

NonradioactiveLong half lifemostly 135Cs and 93Zr30 kg per GWe-yr665 kg per GWe-yearwith all cesium

ContinuousReprocessing

584 tonnes per GWe

Medium andshort half life

1 Tonneper GWe-year

99Tc 13 kg129I 177 kg

per GWe-yr

Usedfuel

Usedfuel

Sale

Nonradioactive

20 tonnes per GWe-yr

Enrichment

Sale

Disposaland sale

Enrichment LWR andLWR reprocessing

eventually phased out

LWRLWR

Reprocessing

Depleted uraniumstorage

Plutonium

8-10 tonnesper GWestartup

IFR

Enriched uranium

Fis

sion

pro

duct

s1

Ton

ne p

er G

We-

yr

MinedUranium

Acceleratortransmutation

Unused fuel and fissionproducts for transmutation

1 tonneper GWe-yr

Page 20 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

Appendix ndash Partitioning and Transmutation

Medium- and long-lived fission products could in principle be destroyed by transmuting them to isotopesthat are stable or have short half lives which decay to stable isotopes

The following tablea shows that 99Tc 129I 93Zr 107Pd and 135Cs can be transmuted much faster thantheir natural decay (ie T Jtrans ltlt T J12) The radiotoxicity of 107Pd and 135Cs is so small it is not worth

the bother to transmute them 93Zr can be recycled into fuel pin cladding or fuel alloying If 99Tc and129I were destroyed there could be very few remaining objections to nuclear power For 90Sr and 137CsT Jtrans gtgt T J12 so transmuting them is not interesting They are biologically active but can simply be

stored for about six half lives (180 years) after which the remaining amounts (069 and 11 kgGWe-yr) canbe discarded or sold If they are initially deposited in ldquodeep geologicalrdquo storage the containment durationrequirement for the repositories is significantly shorter by a factor of 1500 than for used LWR fuel For 79Seand 126Sn T Jtrans ltlt T J12 but T Jtrans is not sufficiently small to be interesting Although the radiotoxicity

per gram of 126Sn and 79Se is large they are produced in such small amounts that their total radiotoxicityper GWe-yr is comparable to that of the others

Isotope J decay Radiotoxicity σJ(nγ) (barns) T Jtrans (years) Mass per Transmuted

mode and T J12 Svg SvGWe-yr Thermal Fast Thermal Fast GWe-yr decay mode

90Sr289yminusrarr 90Y 1411k 1664M 014 001 1600 2200 1179 kg 91Sr

963hminusrarr 91Y137Cs

3008yminusrarr 137Ba 4187k 1152M 002 001 11000 2200 2752 kg 138Cs3341mminusrarr 138Ba

99Tc211kyminusrarr 99Ru 04 8708 43 02 51 110 2177 kg 100Tc

1546sminusrarr 100Ru126Sn

230kyminusrarr 126Sb 4936 4019 005 0005 4400 4400 0814 kg 127Sn21hminusrarr 127Sb

79Se295kyminusrarr 79Br 7478 1271 01 003 2200 7300 0170 kg 80Se is stable

93Zr153myminusrarr 93Nb 0102 2097 028 003 790 730 2056 kg 94Zr is stable

135Cs23myminusrarr 135Ba 0085 1009 13 007 170 310 1187 kg 136Cs

1304dminusrarr 136Ba107Pd

65myminusrarr 107Ag 00007 8309 03 05 730 44 6922 kg 108Pd is stable129I

157myminusrarr 129Xe 0718 4921 43 014 51 160 8853 kg 130I1236hminusrarr 130Xe

T Jtrans is the transmutation half-time for isotope J

Amounts and radioactivity from ORIGEN 22 Radiotoxicity dose factors from ICRP publication 119

This graph from the Swedish Radiation Safety Authorityb[29]

0001

001

01

1

10

100Radiotoxic inventory [Svg]

102 103 104 105 106101

TRU

FP

Uranium in nature

t[y]

shows that most of the radiotoxicity of used nuclear fuel arisesfrom the transuranics which IFR would consume and thatthe radiotoxicity of fission products is below the radiotoxic-ity of uranium ore within 200-300 years Transmuting 99Tcand 129I would reduce the long-term tail of the fission productradiotoxicity from 300 years onward by 60 The ordinateis radiotoxicity per gram of the original fission products notthe remaining fission products at the time specified by the ab-scissa Fission products are stored together stable ones arenot continuously separated from radioactive ones

aData from httpusersictpit˜pub_offlectureslns005Number_2Slessarev_1pdfbhttpwwwstralsakerhetsmyndighetenseGlobalPublikationerTidskriftNucleus2007Nucleus-4-2007pdf

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 21

Appendix ndash Worldwide limitations of alternative energy sources

Details in httpwwwphysicsucsdedu~tmurphyphys239shu_energypdf by Dr Frank Shu

Solar photovoltaic

Solar photovoltaic could in principle supply 15 TWe enough to power the Earthrsquos entire current energyeconomy using about 02 of the land area of the Earth below 60 latitude

Wind

Land-based wind cannot supply more than about 18 TWe or about 12 of the current energy economy

Ocean currents

The Kuroshio current which flows northward in the western Pacific past Taiwan and Japan has a powerof about 100 GW Assuming 50 efficiency of extraction allows about 50 GWe to be extracted The gulfstream flows twice as fast producing eight times as much power allowing about 400 GWe to be extractedExtracting significant power from ocean currents anywhere in the world would have profound effects onclimate

Coastal ocean waves

Assuming 50 efficiency of energy extraction ocean waves impinging on all the shorelines of the Earth couldprovide about 024 TWe or about 16 of the current energy economy

Geothermal

Geothermal sources cannot provide more than about 04 TWe or about 27 of the current energy economy

Tides

Energy extractable from tidal sources amounts to about 3 GWe worldwide or about 002 of the currentenergy economy It is only economically feasible in bays such as the Bay of Fundy which concentrate tidesto heights of as much as 5 meters Damming such bays has effects on the resonant frequency of nearby baysand estuaries profoundly altering currents and tides in nearby areas

Hydroelectric

The Earthrsquos land area is 148times 1012 m2 Average rainfall is 12 meters per year Water density is 103 kgm3

Total rainfall is thus about 18times 1017 kg Dropping 100 meters releases 18times 1017 kgtimes 98 ms2 times 100 m =

176times 1020 joule Spread out over a year 315times 107 s gives 56 TW Assuming 90 efficiency yields 5 TWeThe total available is less perhaps 35 TWe if polar regions are excluded Hydroelectric installations observeabout 30 capacity factor yielding total worldwide availability of about 1 TWe-yryr or about 67 of thecurrent energy economy

Total

Excluding solar photovoltaic and ocean currents alternative electricity sources could yield about 3443 TWeworldwide or about 23 of the current energy economy

Page 22 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

Refer to the appendices for more details

Availability of nuclear fuel

For LWRs the concentration of 235U the fissile isotope is typically enriched from the natural 071 toabout 42 leaving behind a supply of uranium depleted in 235U that is about 57 times the amount ofldquoreactor graderdquo enriched uranium Combining this and the 4-5 fuel efficiency of LWR we extract lessthan 06 of the energy in mined uranium In a reactor some of the 238U is transmuted into 239Pu andother transuranics which are directly usable as IFR fuel In an IFR energy economy once started thosetransuranics rather than 235U provide much of the fission energy and the neutrons needed to transmute 238Uinto more transuranics That is (a) enrichment is not necessary and (b) the currently left-behind depleteduranium is valuable as future fuel

Using a rule of thumb that fissioning 09 kg of actinides yields 1 GWth-day of energy and generating 1 GWerequires 3 GWth to be expended 1 GWe-yr requires 36525 times 3 times 09 = 981 kg asymp 1 tonne of actinides tobe converted to fission products If mined uranium were used to 100 capacity instead of 06 total USpower demand of about 1700 GWe would require about 1700 tonnes of new uranium per year

IFRs could use the current US supply of LWR ldquowasterdquo a substance of which we are desperately eager tobe rid as fuel If nothing is done other than to build an IFR to replace each LWR as it reaches the endof its useful lifea about 50 tonnes of start-up fuel per IFR plus one tonne per year of make-up uraniumthereafterb would be needed That is assuming there are 900000 tonnes of LWR ldquowasterdquo on hand (usedfuel plus depleted uranium) there is enough fuel from that alone for about 10000 years without miningmilling refining or enriching any new uranium

If all current US electric generating capacity were replaced with IFRs about 450 tonnes of makeup fuelwould be needed per year that is there is enough fuel for about 2000 years If the entire energy economywere powered by IFR about 1700 tonnes per year would be needed that is there is enough fuel from currentLWR ldquowasterdquo alone for almost 530 years Is it really ldquowasterdquo

Uranium is four times more common than tin and ten times more common than silver Currently knownreserves of uranium in ore of current commercial grade contain about five million tonnes of the metalc Thatis enough for about 4300 years if used in 90 GWe capacity of US LWRs or about 4800 years if all 1700GWe US power demand were supplied by IFRs Current total worldwide energy demand is about fourtimes US energy demand so if the entire world were to be powered by IFRs at current demand there isenough uranium counting only known reserves profitably recoverable at $138kgU for about 1200 years

The picture isnrsquot so bleak however because the efficiency of use of uranium by IFRs means the fuel costper kWh would be the same as for LWRs at $1380006 asymp $23000kgU or about 0001centkWh This makesit economically feasible to use lower grade ores or more importantly to extract uranium from seawaterwhere there is estimated to be about 45 billion tonnes this is enough for more than a million years ofcurrent worldwide energy demand Even this however is a substantial under-estimate because uraniumis continuously flowing into the oceans from rivers That is uranium alone is an essentially inexhaustibleresource Thorium which could in principle serve as fertile future fuel is four times more common thanuranium so even without river inflow all current worldwide power needs could be supplied for about fivemillion years using nuclear fission Nuclear fission is an effectively inexhaustible energy resource

Weapons proliferation

The ldquoIntegralrdquo in IFR means that the entire system including fuel reprocessing is integrated in one facilityActinides go into an IFR none come out except to start a new IFR Opportunities for theft of partly-used

aWe wouldnrsquot replace LWRs prematurely because the IFR system functions symbiotically with the current fuel cyclebIFR fuel has to be asymp 20 fissile (mainly PU-239) and 80 fertile (U-238) Once an IFR has been loaded it can generate its

own fissile material from fertile material so all it would need to keep running is one tonne of unenriched uranium per GWe-yearc httpwwwworld-nuclearorginfoinf75html

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 9

fuel would be reduced because it would not be transported to a separate facility for processing

Unlike LWRs an IFR power economy once started does not need its uranium fuel to be enriched in 235UThis means that it is not necessary to have any facility to enrich uranium for other than military purposesA reactor owner does need however either ironclad international guarantees of assured fuel supply or theability to reprocess partly used fuel

The ability to reprocess fuel implies the presence of a cadre of professionals who are familiar with most of thetechniques for making weapons-grade materials The mixture of actinides taken out of IFR for reprocessingpresents more difficult radiation thermal chemical and metallurgical problems to would-be weaponeersthan those taken from LWR It is unsuitable for direct use in weapons primarily because of the presenceof 243Am 241Pu and non-fissionable 238Pu 240Pu and 242Pu but is admirably suited as IFR fuel 241Puemits 50 times more heat 5000 times more neutrons and 100 times more gamma radiation than 239PuThis could damage a weapon or cause predetonation and makes maintenance of fine mechanical tolerancesdifficult Expensive remote assembly is mandatory Separating 239Pu from nearby isotopes is more difficultthan separating 238U from 235U first because the mass difference is smaller and second because synthesizingthe gaseous compound PuF6 needed for centrifugal or gas diffusion isotope separation is difficult Eventhough the problem of extracting weapons-grade materials from LWR is easier than for IFR nobody hasdone so Every nuclear weapons program has depended upon enriched uranium or upon purpose-builtreactors optimized to produce 239Pu and these have been nation-scale projects not backyard garage-scaleprojects that a terrorist cell might successfully undertake The simple conclusion is that used LWR fuel isjust about the most difficult material from which to produce nuclear weapons [3] A Lawrence LivermoreNational Laboratory study [10] concluded that spent IFR fuel cannot be used to make a nuclear weaponwithout significant further processing

Even if the difficulties of producing weapons from used reactor fuel could be overcome IFR presents nonew problems of weapons proliferation because reprocessing and enrichment are not substantially differentfrom the standpoint of international oversight No countryrsquos desire or ability to produce nuclear weaponshas ever been affected by any other countryrsquos decision to reprocess or not to reprocess used municipalreactor fuel Every advanced industrial country could in principle produce nuclear weapons independentlyof any other countryrsquos decision to reprocess or not to reprocess used municipal reactor fuel If a countrycannot be trusted with this technology do not sell reactors or fuel reprocessing systems to them The samelong-distance transmission that would be required for solar power would serve their needs

Costs

GE estimates their version of IFR known as S-PRISMa can be built for about $15-2W or $22W after a90 capacity factor is incorporated [11] A GEHitachi consortium estimates they could produce IFR for$12-14W [3] The Diablo Canyon generating station produces electricity for 5cent per kWh The Palo Verdestation was constructed for $179W and produces electricity for 43cent per kWh

T Boone Pickens proposed to build a 4 GWe wind farm The estimated cost ballooned to $3W or $15Wafter incorporating a 21 capacity factor [3] The project was abandoned The Sacramento Municipal UtilityDistrict (SMUD) reports a 15 capacity factor for solar photovoltaic ldquoNo system with capacity factors thislow is a viable energy producing systemrdquo [11] After incorporating these capacity factors the effectiveconstruction costs increase to $4000-$8500kWe for wind and $16000-$60000kWe for solar SMUDestimates a 69-year financial payback for solar photovoltaicb Because wind and solar are diffuse sources$11-13 trillion would be needed for grid upgrades [3] adding another $750kWe to the construction costBecause they are diffuse and erratic sources additional costs for storage would be necessary

In 2017 the lowest-price solar cells cost $180 per peak watt With 15 capacity factor this is $12 peraverage watt Amortized over 25 years at 5 and deducting the four-plus year energy payback capital costalone is 117cent per kWh (181cent at 10) The GVEA 40 battery in Fairbanks Alaska is the largest utility-scale

aSuper Power Reactor Inherently Safe ModularbLifetime is only 30ndash40 years See httpwwwostigovbridgeservletspurl755637-oDWEJRwebviewable755637pdf

or httpwwwglobalspeccomLearnMoreOptics_Optical_ComponentsOptoelectronicsPhotovoltaic_Cells

Page 10 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

storage battery It weighs 1200 tonnes provides 10 MWh storage and cost $350Wh Amortized over fiveyears this is 57centkWha To have constant output the panel capacity needs to be twice the demand ndash halffor immediate use and half to charge batteries so the capital cost for cells plus storage is 291cent per kWhThis does not include mounting transportation operation maintenance land recycling or grid upgradesThe equation used to calculate amortized cost is

A(n) = rA(nminus 1)minus p

where A(0) is the initial cost per watt and A(n) is the amount remaining to be paid after n payments ofp dollars at an interest rate of 100(r minus 1) per payment period Solving this equation for A(n) settingA(n) = 0 and solving for p gives

p = A(0) rnr minus 1

rn minus 1

The cost per watt hour is pH where H is hours per payment period If the payment period is one yearand power is provided continuously H is 8766 (36525times24) Because solar panels have a 45 year energypayback period the final value needs to be multiplied by n(nminus 45) where n is years

The following table compares construction costs for eight renewable sources [3] Costs are per peak kWenot average kWe The capacity factor is not included

Cost Cost Cost CostSource $kWe Source $kWe Source $kWe Source $kWeWind (onshore) 800 Wind (offshore) 1700 Hydro 2000 Geothermal 2100Biomass 2300 Solar (thermal) 2400 Tidal 2800 Solar (PV) 5900

The following table compares operating and construction costs for six electric power technologies [3] [12][13] External grid upgrade and storage costs are not included Since 1981 nuclear power utilities havebeen paying 01centkWh into the Federal Nuclear Waste Fund so LWR decommissioning and ldquowasterdquo handlingcosts are included as internal costs

Operating Average Effective FederalCost Construction Capacity Construction Life Delivered Subsidy

Fuel centkWh Cost $kWe Factor Cost $kWedagger (yrs) centkWhDagger centkWhlowast

LWR Nuclear 49 1000-2000 gt 90 1111-2222 50 515ndash541 0210Coal 60-63 1000-1500 gt 90 1111-1667 50 625ndash668 0056Hydro 40-80 2000 asymp 33 6000 100 469ndash869 0136Gas 76-92 400-800 gt 90 444-888 30 777ndash954 0060Wind 49-100 1000-2000 asymp 21 4762-9524 20 762ndash1543 3533Solar PV 150-300 6000-9000 asymp 15 40000-60000 30 3021ndash5282 23131daggerConstruction cost capacity factorDaggerOperating cost + construction cost ( capacity factor times lifetime ) Amortization not includedlowasthttpwwweiagovanalysisrequestssubsidy tables ES4 and ES5 for 2013

Particulate emissions alone from coal-fired power plants cost $165 billion [3] and cause 30100 prematuredeaths 603000 asthma attacks and 5130000 lost work days per year in the United States alone [14]

Nuclear power has the lowest delivered costs in ten of twelve countries studied [15] (India China and Russiawere not included) The two that did not have the lowest costs were the United States and Korea Thereport did not address the significant costs in the United States of protracted litigation and continuouslyrevised regulations and slow licensing of individual reactors It would be helpful if the Nuclear RegulatoryCommission were to adopt the French system of licensing reactor designs instead of individual reactors IFRs

aProf Nate Lewis in a private seminar Where will we get our energy at Caltech Jet Propulsion Laboratory estimated40-50centkWh

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 11

would be less expensive to build and operate than current technology because they are simpler standardizeddesigns instead of complicated one-off designs [3] The system is further substantially simplified because thecoolant operates at atmospheric pressure instead of 160 atmospheres and it absorbs essentially all neutronsthat escape the core so special alloys and over-designing are not needed to compensate for containmentvessel embrittlement caused by neutron damage and there are much fewer radioactive structural neutronactivation products

When external costs are included nuclear costs are estimated [16] to be about one tenth as much as coalCO2 emissions are explicitly excluded from costs of fossil-fuel systems Nuclear utilities have been paying01centkWh into the Federal Waste Disposal Fund since 1981 for used nuclear fuel disposal and reactor decom-missioning these costs are included as internal costs for LWR The radiological cost of mining is includedbut for IFR that would be irrelevant since there is already enough uranium above ground for several cen-turies For IFR fuel would be cheaper than free for a few hundred years because it would consume the LWRldquowasterdquo of which we are desperately eager to be rid and disposal of IFR waste would be far less expensivethan disposal of 5-used LWR fuel so IFR must have much lower than one tenth the operating cost of coal

The United States has already invested $8 Billion in the Yucca Mountain repository It is estimated to cost$436 Billion to complete [3] and current waste would require about 8-10 times more capacity than YuccaMountain would have at completion IFR would make Yucca Mountain irrelevant and is even more importantnow that the Obama administration has canceled Yucca Mountain Why is the Nevada Congressionaldelegation not insisting that the IFR demonstration project be restarted

Tony Blairrsquos government commissioned a study by Sir Nicholas Stern former vice president and chiefeconomist for the World Bank He recommended committing 1 of global GDP to reduce CO2 emissions to25-70 below current levels by mid century and that increased extreme weather costs alone could reach1 of GDP [3] For the United States that amount of todayrsquos GDP would be $290 billion per year In thenext section we estimate that producing an energy economy entirely powered by IFR could be accomplishedin fewer than 65 years Spending $290 billion per year on CO2 remediation during that interval would cost$188 trillion (in todayrsquos dollars) At $22BGWe for IFR 17 TWe would cost $374 trilliona ndash 20 asmuch ndash and would essentially eliminate CO2 emissions not reduce them by 25-70

What can be done

As admirable as they are conservation biofuels wind geothermal tides waves ocean currents and hydroalone or together cannot power any economy nor can they destroy the 59160 tonnes of ldquowasterdquo from thefirst 53 years of US LWR operations and more accumulated since 2006 Wind and solar are much moreexpensive than IFR There are no good hydro sites that have been exploited A 2017 study [17] concludedthat a 100 renewable-electricity system might not be physically feasible let alone economically viableCoal is terrible (and more expensive as well) Natural gas is more benign than coal but still produces CO2Oil produces CO2 and importing it and protecting access to overseas sources is expensive in both blood andnational treasure Solar is much more expensive than IFR and wouldnrsquot destroy waste That leaves IFR asthe only alternative that is both sufficient and economically viable

There are no serious plans for electric airplanes ships or heavy construction or farm equipment so someliquid hydrocarbon fuels will be needed for the foreseeable future Hydrogen is at present a nonstarterbecause of the storage problem Fortunately we know how to make hydrocarbon fuels from energy + water+ CO2b Using such fuels or hydrogen if the storage problem is solved (or maybe boron [3]) it is possibletherefore to convert the entire US energy economy to electricity provided mostly by IFR with hydrowind solar geothermal or biofuels where appropriate

The current US economy could be powered by about 17 TWe Each 1 GWe reactor needs 8ndash10 tonnesof startup fissile material which would at first largely be actinides from used LWR fuel and plutoniumand enriched uranium from decommissioned weapons The current US inventory of fissionable actinides is

aGEHitachi estimates $21-24 trillion ndash 11-13 of $188 trillionbThe Fischer-Tropsch process

Page 12 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

about 900 tonnes plus about 225 tonnes of weapons-grade 235Ua or enough to start up only about 110-140GWe of capacity using IFR With breeding that IFR fleet could have a sustained growth rate of 5 per yearor maybe more After startup the deployment rate would gradually accelerate from 5ndash7 per year helpedalong by actinides from still-operating LWRs and reach the desired 17 TWe goal within about 40ndash50 yearsor sooner to the extent renewable sources are appropriate or if uranium enrichment is continued

A single complete and permanent solution to all energy pollution nuclear waste and CO2 emission problemsis within our grasp All obstacles to that solution are political abetted and perpetuated by ignoranceintentional falsehoods irrational hysteria and opportunistic demagoguery not scientific technological orengineering problems Competition for energy resources is frequently blamed for wars IFR would eliminatethat excuse

Fast breeder reactors with fuel recycling will be developed There is no credible alternative There is an 800MWe reactor in service in Russiab and a 1200 MWe reactor is under development China has contractedto buy a BN-800 reactor from Russia South Korea has announced a 400 GWe fast-neutron reactor will beavailable for sale in 2020 India is building a prototype fast-neutron reactor to exploit their vast reservesof thorium China and Japan are making progress on their own designs American experts are retiring ordying far faster then younger ones are being prepared The United States will soon be a third-world countryin energy technology

Should the United States spend $188 trillion on CO2 reduction and mitigation $1075 trillion on coal sootdamage $68ndash102 trillion on solar cells $25 trillion on wind turbines $475 trillion on grid upgrades ndash about$130minus170 trillion altogether (and none of those would destroy one gram of nuclear waste) and suffer 2million unnecessary deaths due to coal emissions or spend $24 trillion on IFR (and render all nuclear wasteharmless)

For me the answer is obvious There is no time to waste We really ought to get started

Acknowledgment

This work benefited substantially from constructive criticism by the late Dr George S Stanford

Further reading

[1] Charles E Till and Yoon Il Chang Plentiful energy (2011) ISBN 978-1466384606

[2] William H Hannum Gerald E Marsh and George S Stanford Smarter use of nuclear waste ScientificAmerican (December 2005)httpswwwscientificamericancomarticlesmarter-use-of-nuclear-waste

[3] Tom Blees Prescription For The Planet The painless remedy for our energy and environmental crises(2008) ISBN 1-4196-5582-5 Impressive technical content plus off-putting gratuitous political insultsand nutty ideas about UN control of world energy

[4] D C Wade and Y I Chang The Integral Fast Reactor Physics of operation and safety NuclearScience and Engineering 100 4 (December 1988) 507ndash524

[5] Matthew D Eisaman Keshav Parajuly Alexander Tuganov Craig Eldershaw Noring Chang andKarl A Littau CO2 extraction from seawater using bipolar membrane electrodialysis Energy amp En-vironmental Science 5 6 (May 2012)

[6] National Renewable Energy Laboratory Land-use requirements of modern wind power plants in theUnited States httpwwwnrelgovdocsfy09osti45834pdf (2009)

a141 of LWR waste (httpwwwwhatisnuclearcomarticleswastehtmlcomposition) plus military inventory of 45tonnes 239Pu and 225 tonnes 235U (httpdsp-psdpwgscgccaCollection-RLoPBdPBPbp461-ehtm)

bhttpsenwikipediaorgwikiBN-800_reactor

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 13

[7] David Baurac Passively safe reactors rely on nature to keep them coolhttpwwwneanlgovAbouthnlogos-winter02-psrshtml (Winter 2002)

[8] United Nations Scientific Committee for the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) Scientific AnnexD Health effects due to radiation from the Chernobyl accident in Sources and Effects of IonizingRadiation 2008 Report to the General Assembly Volume II ISBN-13 978-92-1-142280-1 (2011)

[9] United Nations Scientific Committee for the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) Chapter IIIScientific Findings Part A Levels and effects of radiation exposure due to the nuclear accident afterthe great east-Japan earthquake and tsunami in Sources and Effects of Ionizing Radiation 2013 Reportto the General Assembly Volume I ISBN 978-92-1-142291-7 e-ISBN 978-92-1-056501-1 (2014)

[10] D L Goldman Some Implications of Using IFR High-Transuranic Plutonium in a Prolifer-ant Nuclear Weapon Program Technical Report CONDU-94-0199 Lawrence Livermore NationalLaboratory (March 1994)

[11] P E Donald E Lutz PGampE solar plants in the desert Truth about energy (2007)

[12] Nuclear Energy Agency Projected costs of generating electricityhttpwwwieaorgtextbasenppdffree2005ElecCostPDF (2005)

[13] Nuclear Energy Agency Projected costs of generating electricityhttpwwwieaorgTextbasenpsumElecCost2010SUMpdf (2010)

[14] Mark Fischetti The human cost of energy Scientific American (September 2011)

[15] Uranium Information Center (UIC) The Economics of Nuclear Power Technical report AustralianUranium Association Melbourne (March 2008)

[16] European Commission Research team of the ExternE project serieshttpwwwexterneinfoteamhtml (2007)

[17] B W Heard B W Brook T M L Wigley and C J A Bradshaw Burden of proof A comprehensivereview of the feasibility of 100 renewable-electricity systems Renewable and Sustainable EnergyReviews 76 (2017) 1122ndash1133

[18] William H Hannum The technology of the integral fast reactor and its associated fuel cycle Progressin Nuclear Energy 31 1ndash2 (1997)

[19] George S Stanford Integral fast reactors Source of safe abundant non-polluting powerhttpwwwnationalcenterorgNPA378html

[20] Gerald E Marsh and George S Stanford Bombs reprocessing and reactor grade plutonium Forumon Physics amp Society of the American Physical Society Newsletter 35 2 (April 2006)httphttpwwwthesciencecouncilcomindexphpgeorge-stanford

[21] Charles Till Plentiful energy and the IFR story The Republic News and Issues Magazine (June-September 2005) httpwwwsustainablenuclearorgPADspad0509tillhtml

[22] The Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP) httpwwwgnepenergygov

[23] Vic Reis Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP) in American Nuclear Society meetingReno NV American Nuclear Society (5 June 2006)httpwwwsustainablenuclearorgPADspad0606reispdf

[24] Doug Lightfoot Wallace Manheimer Dan Meneley Duane Pendergast and George S Stanford NuclearFission Fuel Is Inexhaustible in Climate Change Technology Conference (10ndash12 May 2006)Ottawa Ontario Canada

Page 14 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

[25] George S Stanford LWR Recycle Necessity or Impediment in ldquoGlobal 2003rdquo ANS WinterMeeting New Orleans American Nuclear Society (16ndash20 November 2003)httpwwwnationalcenterorgLWRStanfordpdf

[26] Senators Richard Lugar and Even Bayh A nuclear fuel bank advocated Chicago Tribune (22 October2006)

[27] Gerald E Marsh and George S Stanford Yucca Mountain The Right DecisionhttpwwwnationalcenterorgNPA415html (June 2002)

[28] Steve Kirsch httpskirschcompoliticsglobalwarmingifrhtm Summary blog

[29] Janne Wallenius Ateranvandning av langlivat avfall och sluten branslecykel mojlig i nya reaktortyper(Reuse of long-lived waste and a closed fuel cycle possible in new reactor types) Nucleus (April 2007)15ndash19

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 15

Appendix ndash Fission product yields from light-water reactors

See httpenwikipediaorgwikiFission_product_yield Sorted by half life

Number Isotope decay path Mass per

fractiondagger and half life GWe-year Comment

28336 131I802dminusrarr 131Xe 3150 kg Reduced by 195times10minus14 per year ndash 06 ng after one year

554478 Various lt 1y 5411 kglowast Decay to stable products

03912 106Ru3736dminusrarr 106Rh 3519 kg

asymp 035 134Cs2065yminusrarr 134Ba 3980 kg Created in the reactor from 133Cs by neutron capture

22713 147Pm262yminusrarr 147Sm 2833 kg

00297 125Sb276yminusrarr 125Te 315 g

lt00330 155Eu476yminusrarr 155Gd 434 g Mostly destroyed by neutron capture in the reactor

02717 85Kr1078yminusrarr 85Rb 1960 kg Currently released to the atmosphere

lt00003 113mCd141yminusrarr 113mIn 288 g Mostly destroyed by neutron capture in the reactor

57518 90Sr289yminusrarr 90Y 4393 kg Principal medium-term radiation and heat source319hminusrarr 90Zr

60899 137Cs3008yminusrarr 137Ba 7080 kg Principal medium-term radiation and heat source

lt04203 151Sm90yminusrarr 151Eu 5385 kg Mostly destroyed by neutron capture in the reactor

1e18yminusrarr 147Pm 151Eu is essentially stable262yminusrarr 147Sm1e11yminusrarr 143Nd

60507 99Tc211kyminusrarr 99Ru 5083 kg Dominant radiation source among fission products in the

range of 104 rarr 106 years candidate for transmutation

to 100Tc1546sminusrarr 100Ru

00236 126Sn230kyminusrarr 126Sb 252 g1235dminusrarr 126Te

00508 79Se295kyminusrarr 79Br 341 g

62856 93Zr153myminusrarr 93Nb 4960 kg

lt63333 135Cs23myminusrarr 135Ba 7255 kg

01629 107Pd65myminusrarr 107Ag 1479 kg

06576 129I157myminusrarr 129Xe 7198 kg Candidate for transmutation to 130I

1236hminusrarr 130Xe

asymp 644 133Cs stable 7268 kg A few percent converted by neutron capture to 134Cs

lt10888 149Sm stable 1377 kg

lt00065 157Gd stable 8659 gdaggerThe number fraction is the fraction of the atoms of fission products that are the specified isotope notthe mass fraction The mass is computed by multiplying the number fraction by the atomic mass andnormalizing the total to one tonne per GWe-yearlowastAssumes average mass number of 115

Thermal neutron transmutation of 90Sr 137Cs 126Sn 79Se 93Zr 135Cs and 107Pd is not practical due tolow neutron absorption cross section at the neutron temperature in LWRs

Page 16 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

The amount of an isotope at a particular time can be calculated by solving the differential equation

dN(t)

dt= k minus ln 2

τN(t)

where N(t) is the amount at time t in years k is the production rate per year and τ is the half-life in yearsThe solution (assuming N(0) = 0) is

N(t) =τk

ln 2

(1minus 2minustτ

)

From this when t gtgt τ the amount of each radioactive fission product is exponentially asymptotic toa constant approximately τk ln 2 decay compensates for production The amount of these materials isproportional to the power capacity not the total amount of energy produced If stable decay products arecontinuously removed the size of the repository is roughly constant

The following table shows asymptotic fractions and asymptotic masses per GWe (not GWe-year) of shortand medium half-life fission products The fraction is measured in terms of the annual number of fissionproduct atoms which is twice the number of actinide atoms consumed

Asymptotic number fraction and mass per GWe

Isotope Fraction Mass kg Isotope Fraction Mass kg

137Cs3008yminusrarr 137Ba 2643 3072lowast 90Sr

289yminusrarr 90Y2671dminusrarr 90Zr 2398 1831

Various τ lt 1y 7999 lt7806dagger 147Pm262yminusrarr 147Sm 85852 1071

85Kr1078yminusrarr 85Rb 4226 3048Dagger 134Cs

2065yminusrarr 134Ba 1043 1185lowast

106Ru3736dminusrarr 106Rh 05773 5192 155Eu

476yminusrarr 155Gd 02266 2981125Sb

276yminusrarr 125Te 01183 1254 131I802dminusrarr 131Xe 00898 0998

lowastAssumes isotope separation of 133Cs 134Cs 135Cs and 137Cs Total caesium

accumulates at 220 kgGWe-yrdaggerThe unclassified components are assumed to have an average mass number of

115 and to have a one year half life Since they are a mixture of products with

half lives under one year the true asymptotic fraction and mass are lessDagger 85Kr is currently vented to the atmosphere

The total mass of these products exponentially approaches an asymptote of less than 5844 kg per GWeor 9934 tonnes for a 17 TWe economy If their decay products are continuously removed storage isnot a problem If not reprocessed they are diluted by their decay products and therefore their specificactivity declines sufficiently that they are not radioactively dangerous after 200ndash300 years but the volumeis proportional to kt not k In 200 years of a 17 TWe economy the amount is less than 250000 tonnes lessthan 130000 cubic yards or less than 44 feet deep on a football field Separating the streams according tohalf life reduces the 200-year stream by 85

For long-lived isotopes ie t ltlt τ on a human time scale decay does not compensate for productionApproximating 2minustτ = exp(minust ln 2τ) asymp 1minus t ln 2τ the solution is N(t) asymp kt as expected The amount ofthese fission products is in proportion to the total amount of energy produced not the power capacity

Long-lived isotopes accumulate at the rate of about 182 kg per GWe-year or about 309 tonnes per year fora 17 TWe economy 99Tc and 129I can be destroyed by transmutation but the others amounting to about124 kg per GWe-year are impractical to destroy by transmutation If other isotopes of caesium (about 147kg per GWe-year) are not separated from 135Cs the total long-term disposal stream increases to 271 kg perGWe-year (but its specific activity decreases) If stored for about 30 years before disposal about 35 kg perGWe-year of 137Cs will decay leaving about 235 kg per GWe-year or about 400 tonnes per year for a 17TWe economy if the resulting stable 137Ba were removed Surely disposal of 400 tonnes per year of theseisotopes would not be a problem

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 17

Value of one tonne of used LWR fuelseparated and reduced to metal

Value Radioactivity

Value $tonne (MevBq-s) Half life Heat

Substance Mass (gr) $gr of waste α β γ (years) Wgr238U 944100 0143 135006 42 0496 447times109

236U 3971 0143 568 45 0494 234times107

235U 7974 0143 1140 44 0657 704234U 225 0143 32 48 00532 245times105

237Np 503 0143 72 47 00294 214times106

242Pu 454 0143 65 48 00449 376times105

241Pu 111 0143 16 49 01485 1435240Pu 2302 0143 329 52 05424 656times103

239Pu 5025 0143 719 52 00516 241times104

238Pu 95 0143 14 55 00435 8774 156241Am 1084 0143 155 55 00595 432243Am 85 0143 12 53 00747 737244Cm 4 0143 1 58 00428 1811 244

Actinides 965933 0143 13812996Zr 798 305 2434 Stable94Zr 741 305 2260 Stable93Zr 718 305 2190 0010 00305 161times106

92Zr 639 305 1948 Stable91Zr 590 305 1799 Stable90Zr 391 305 1192 Stable

Fuel cladding 3877 305 1182299Tc for alloys 771 1000 7710 00846 weak 2111times105

90Sr 391 200 782 01958 29 09388Sr 350 200 700 Stable137Cs 377 200 754 0187 0479 3017 042135Cs 300 200 600 00757 0662 23times106

133Cs 1125 200 2250 Stable

Heat sources 2543 200 5086

Br 22 100 22 Stable

Mo 3345 0257 860 Stable

Ru 2177 4578 99663 Stable

Ag 76 200 152 Stable

Cd 108 200 216 Stable

Ba 2311 0560 1295 Stable

Tb 26 3000 78 Stable

Dy 14 500 7 Stable

Rh 467 50000 233500 Stable87Rb 365 1178 4300 00817 481times1010

123Te 485 139 675 gt 92times 1016

138La 1215 180 2187 00329 144 102times1011

144Nd 3488 220 7673 190 229times1015

115In 26 1000 26 01532 441times1014

(cont)

Page 18 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

Value of one tonne of used LWR fuelseparated and reduced to metal (cont)

Value Radioactivity

Value $tonne (MevBq-s) Half life Heat

Substance Mass (gr) $gr of waste α β γ (years) Wgr142Ce 2355 028 662 15 gt 50times 1016

152Gd 142 548 778 215 14times1015

147Sm 200 200 400 225 106times1011

148Sm 167 200 334 19323 70times1015

149Sm 24 200 5 Stable151Sm 88 200 17 00196 00216 90152Sm + 154Sm 419 200 838 Stable107Pd 1371 8294 113710 00093 01476 65times106

90Y 456 1000 4560 09336 weak 64 hr152Eu 035 6000 21 00831 0122 134154Eu 1095 6000 6570 0221 0123 8601155Eu 016 6000 9 0047 0087 4753

Other solid 19297 4785583H 00034 294117 1000 00156 1254He 289 173 5 Stable85Kr 308 200 616 0687 0514 1072

Xe 5332 170 9050 Stable

Gases 5643 10671

Total fission 32131 1600 513937

products

Not counted 1936

Total 1000000 065 652066

httpbrcgove-mailsAugust10Commercial Value of 1 Metric ton of used fuelpdf with radioac-tivity data from httpwwwnndcbnlgovchart

Actinides can be recycled as fuel

Zirconium from fuel pin alloys and cladding and fission products can be recycled into new fuel pin claddingand alloys

Some radioactive elements produce sufficient heat to be usable as energy sources for example in radioisotopethermal generators for space applications These would not be isotopically separated 90Sr is 53 of thetotal strontium in fission products so heat production for all strontium is 049 Wgr 137Cs is 21 of thetotal caesium in fission products so heat production for all caesium is 0088 Wgr

Technetium is valuable for alloying with rhenium and has medical applications

Gases would be separated first then actinides then highly radioactive products This would reduce the costof separating and reducing the stable and less radioactive products

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 19

Appendix ndash Fuel and waste cycles

Actinides

IFRReprocessing

PrimaryProcessing

Disposaland sale

NonradioactiveLong half lifemostly 135Cs and 93Zr30 kg per GWe-yr665 kg per GWe-yearwith all cesium

ContinuousReprocessing

584 tonnes per GWe

Medium andshort half life

1 Tonneper GWe-year

99Tc 13 kg129I 177 kg

per GWe-yr

Usedfuel

Usedfuel

Sale

Nonradioactive

20 tonnes per GWe-yr

Enrichment

Sale

Disposaland sale

Enrichment LWR andLWR reprocessing

eventually phased out

LWRLWR

Reprocessing

Depleted uraniumstorage

Plutonium

8-10 tonnesper GWestartup

IFR

Enriched uranium

Fis

sion

pro

duct

s1

Ton

ne p

er G

We-

yr

MinedUranium

Acceleratortransmutation

Unused fuel and fissionproducts for transmutation

1 tonneper GWe-yr

Page 20 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

Appendix ndash Partitioning and Transmutation

Medium- and long-lived fission products could in principle be destroyed by transmuting them to isotopesthat are stable or have short half lives which decay to stable isotopes

The following tablea shows that 99Tc 129I 93Zr 107Pd and 135Cs can be transmuted much faster thantheir natural decay (ie T Jtrans ltlt T J12) The radiotoxicity of 107Pd and 135Cs is so small it is not worth

the bother to transmute them 93Zr can be recycled into fuel pin cladding or fuel alloying If 99Tc and129I were destroyed there could be very few remaining objections to nuclear power For 90Sr and 137CsT Jtrans gtgt T J12 so transmuting them is not interesting They are biologically active but can simply be

stored for about six half lives (180 years) after which the remaining amounts (069 and 11 kgGWe-yr) canbe discarded or sold If they are initially deposited in ldquodeep geologicalrdquo storage the containment durationrequirement for the repositories is significantly shorter by a factor of 1500 than for used LWR fuel For 79Seand 126Sn T Jtrans ltlt T J12 but T Jtrans is not sufficiently small to be interesting Although the radiotoxicity

per gram of 126Sn and 79Se is large they are produced in such small amounts that their total radiotoxicityper GWe-yr is comparable to that of the others

Isotope J decay Radiotoxicity σJ(nγ) (barns) T Jtrans (years) Mass per Transmuted

mode and T J12 Svg SvGWe-yr Thermal Fast Thermal Fast GWe-yr decay mode

90Sr289yminusrarr 90Y 1411k 1664M 014 001 1600 2200 1179 kg 91Sr

963hminusrarr 91Y137Cs

3008yminusrarr 137Ba 4187k 1152M 002 001 11000 2200 2752 kg 138Cs3341mminusrarr 138Ba

99Tc211kyminusrarr 99Ru 04 8708 43 02 51 110 2177 kg 100Tc

1546sminusrarr 100Ru126Sn

230kyminusrarr 126Sb 4936 4019 005 0005 4400 4400 0814 kg 127Sn21hminusrarr 127Sb

79Se295kyminusrarr 79Br 7478 1271 01 003 2200 7300 0170 kg 80Se is stable

93Zr153myminusrarr 93Nb 0102 2097 028 003 790 730 2056 kg 94Zr is stable

135Cs23myminusrarr 135Ba 0085 1009 13 007 170 310 1187 kg 136Cs

1304dminusrarr 136Ba107Pd

65myminusrarr 107Ag 00007 8309 03 05 730 44 6922 kg 108Pd is stable129I

157myminusrarr 129Xe 0718 4921 43 014 51 160 8853 kg 130I1236hminusrarr 130Xe

T Jtrans is the transmutation half-time for isotope J

Amounts and radioactivity from ORIGEN 22 Radiotoxicity dose factors from ICRP publication 119

This graph from the Swedish Radiation Safety Authorityb[29]

0001

001

01

1

10

100Radiotoxic inventory [Svg]

102 103 104 105 106101

TRU

FP

Uranium in nature

t[y]

shows that most of the radiotoxicity of used nuclear fuel arisesfrom the transuranics which IFR would consume and thatthe radiotoxicity of fission products is below the radiotoxic-ity of uranium ore within 200-300 years Transmuting 99Tcand 129I would reduce the long-term tail of the fission productradiotoxicity from 300 years onward by 60 The ordinateis radiotoxicity per gram of the original fission products notthe remaining fission products at the time specified by the ab-scissa Fission products are stored together stable ones arenot continuously separated from radioactive ones

aData from httpusersictpit˜pub_offlectureslns005Number_2Slessarev_1pdfbhttpwwwstralsakerhetsmyndighetenseGlobalPublikationerTidskriftNucleus2007Nucleus-4-2007pdf

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 21

Appendix ndash Worldwide limitations of alternative energy sources

Details in httpwwwphysicsucsdedu~tmurphyphys239shu_energypdf by Dr Frank Shu

Solar photovoltaic

Solar photovoltaic could in principle supply 15 TWe enough to power the Earthrsquos entire current energyeconomy using about 02 of the land area of the Earth below 60 latitude

Wind

Land-based wind cannot supply more than about 18 TWe or about 12 of the current energy economy

Ocean currents

The Kuroshio current which flows northward in the western Pacific past Taiwan and Japan has a powerof about 100 GW Assuming 50 efficiency of extraction allows about 50 GWe to be extracted The gulfstream flows twice as fast producing eight times as much power allowing about 400 GWe to be extractedExtracting significant power from ocean currents anywhere in the world would have profound effects onclimate

Coastal ocean waves

Assuming 50 efficiency of energy extraction ocean waves impinging on all the shorelines of the Earth couldprovide about 024 TWe or about 16 of the current energy economy

Geothermal

Geothermal sources cannot provide more than about 04 TWe or about 27 of the current energy economy

Tides

Energy extractable from tidal sources amounts to about 3 GWe worldwide or about 002 of the currentenergy economy It is only economically feasible in bays such as the Bay of Fundy which concentrate tidesto heights of as much as 5 meters Damming such bays has effects on the resonant frequency of nearby baysand estuaries profoundly altering currents and tides in nearby areas

Hydroelectric

The Earthrsquos land area is 148times 1012 m2 Average rainfall is 12 meters per year Water density is 103 kgm3

Total rainfall is thus about 18times 1017 kg Dropping 100 meters releases 18times 1017 kgtimes 98 ms2 times 100 m =

176times 1020 joule Spread out over a year 315times 107 s gives 56 TW Assuming 90 efficiency yields 5 TWeThe total available is less perhaps 35 TWe if polar regions are excluded Hydroelectric installations observeabout 30 capacity factor yielding total worldwide availability of about 1 TWe-yryr or about 67 of thecurrent energy economy

Total

Excluding solar photovoltaic and ocean currents alternative electricity sources could yield about 3443 TWeworldwide or about 23 of the current energy economy

Page 22 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

fuel would be reduced because it would not be transported to a separate facility for processing

Unlike LWRs an IFR power economy once started does not need its uranium fuel to be enriched in 235UThis means that it is not necessary to have any facility to enrich uranium for other than military purposesA reactor owner does need however either ironclad international guarantees of assured fuel supply or theability to reprocess partly used fuel

The ability to reprocess fuel implies the presence of a cadre of professionals who are familiar with most of thetechniques for making weapons-grade materials The mixture of actinides taken out of IFR for reprocessingpresents more difficult radiation thermal chemical and metallurgical problems to would-be weaponeersthan those taken from LWR It is unsuitable for direct use in weapons primarily because of the presenceof 243Am 241Pu and non-fissionable 238Pu 240Pu and 242Pu but is admirably suited as IFR fuel 241Puemits 50 times more heat 5000 times more neutrons and 100 times more gamma radiation than 239PuThis could damage a weapon or cause predetonation and makes maintenance of fine mechanical tolerancesdifficult Expensive remote assembly is mandatory Separating 239Pu from nearby isotopes is more difficultthan separating 238U from 235U first because the mass difference is smaller and second because synthesizingthe gaseous compound PuF6 needed for centrifugal or gas diffusion isotope separation is difficult Eventhough the problem of extracting weapons-grade materials from LWR is easier than for IFR nobody hasdone so Every nuclear weapons program has depended upon enriched uranium or upon purpose-builtreactors optimized to produce 239Pu and these have been nation-scale projects not backyard garage-scaleprojects that a terrorist cell might successfully undertake The simple conclusion is that used LWR fuel isjust about the most difficult material from which to produce nuclear weapons [3] A Lawrence LivermoreNational Laboratory study [10] concluded that spent IFR fuel cannot be used to make a nuclear weaponwithout significant further processing

Even if the difficulties of producing weapons from used reactor fuel could be overcome IFR presents nonew problems of weapons proliferation because reprocessing and enrichment are not substantially differentfrom the standpoint of international oversight No countryrsquos desire or ability to produce nuclear weaponshas ever been affected by any other countryrsquos decision to reprocess or not to reprocess used municipalreactor fuel Every advanced industrial country could in principle produce nuclear weapons independentlyof any other countryrsquos decision to reprocess or not to reprocess used municipal reactor fuel If a countrycannot be trusted with this technology do not sell reactors or fuel reprocessing systems to them The samelong-distance transmission that would be required for solar power would serve their needs

Costs

GE estimates their version of IFR known as S-PRISMa can be built for about $15-2W or $22W after a90 capacity factor is incorporated [11] A GEHitachi consortium estimates they could produce IFR for$12-14W [3] The Diablo Canyon generating station produces electricity for 5cent per kWh The Palo Verdestation was constructed for $179W and produces electricity for 43cent per kWh

T Boone Pickens proposed to build a 4 GWe wind farm The estimated cost ballooned to $3W or $15Wafter incorporating a 21 capacity factor [3] The project was abandoned The Sacramento Municipal UtilityDistrict (SMUD) reports a 15 capacity factor for solar photovoltaic ldquoNo system with capacity factors thislow is a viable energy producing systemrdquo [11] After incorporating these capacity factors the effectiveconstruction costs increase to $4000-$8500kWe for wind and $16000-$60000kWe for solar SMUDestimates a 69-year financial payback for solar photovoltaicb Because wind and solar are diffuse sources$11-13 trillion would be needed for grid upgrades [3] adding another $750kWe to the construction costBecause they are diffuse and erratic sources additional costs for storage would be necessary

In 2017 the lowest-price solar cells cost $180 per peak watt With 15 capacity factor this is $12 peraverage watt Amortized over 25 years at 5 and deducting the four-plus year energy payback capital costalone is 117cent per kWh (181cent at 10) The GVEA 40 battery in Fairbanks Alaska is the largest utility-scale

aSuper Power Reactor Inherently Safe ModularbLifetime is only 30ndash40 years See httpwwwostigovbridgeservletspurl755637-oDWEJRwebviewable755637pdf

or httpwwwglobalspeccomLearnMoreOptics_Optical_ComponentsOptoelectronicsPhotovoltaic_Cells

Page 10 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

storage battery It weighs 1200 tonnes provides 10 MWh storage and cost $350Wh Amortized over fiveyears this is 57centkWha To have constant output the panel capacity needs to be twice the demand ndash halffor immediate use and half to charge batteries so the capital cost for cells plus storage is 291cent per kWhThis does not include mounting transportation operation maintenance land recycling or grid upgradesThe equation used to calculate amortized cost is

A(n) = rA(nminus 1)minus p

where A(0) is the initial cost per watt and A(n) is the amount remaining to be paid after n payments ofp dollars at an interest rate of 100(r minus 1) per payment period Solving this equation for A(n) settingA(n) = 0 and solving for p gives

p = A(0) rnr minus 1

rn minus 1

The cost per watt hour is pH where H is hours per payment period If the payment period is one yearand power is provided continuously H is 8766 (36525times24) Because solar panels have a 45 year energypayback period the final value needs to be multiplied by n(nminus 45) where n is years

The following table compares construction costs for eight renewable sources [3] Costs are per peak kWenot average kWe The capacity factor is not included

Cost Cost Cost CostSource $kWe Source $kWe Source $kWe Source $kWeWind (onshore) 800 Wind (offshore) 1700 Hydro 2000 Geothermal 2100Biomass 2300 Solar (thermal) 2400 Tidal 2800 Solar (PV) 5900

The following table compares operating and construction costs for six electric power technologies [3] [12][13] External grid upgrade and storage costs are not included Since 1981 nuclear power utilities havebeen paying 01centkWh into the Federal Nuclear Waste Fund so LWR decommissioning and ldquowasterdquo handlingcosts are included as internal costs

Operating Average Effective FederalCost Construction Capacity Construction Life Delivered Subsidy

Fuel centkWh Cost $kWe Factor Cost $kWedagger (yrs) centkWhDagger centkWhlowast

LWR Nuclear 49 1000-2000 gt 90 1111-2222 50 515ndash541 0210Coal 60-63 1000-1500 gt 90 1111-1667 50 625ndash668 0056Hydro 40-80 2000 asymp 33 6000 100 469ndash869 0136Gas 76-92 400-800 gt 90 444-888 30 777ndash954 0060Wind 49-100 1000-2000 asymp 21 4762-9524 20 762ndash1543 3533Solar PV 150-300 6000-9000 asymp 15 40000-60000 30 3021ndash5282 23131daggerConstruction cost capacity factorDaggerOperating cost + construction cost ( capacity factor times lifetime ) Amortization not includedlowasthttpwwweiagovanalysisrequestssubsidy tables ES4 and ES5 for 2013

Particulate emissions alone from coal-fired power plants cost $165 billion [3] and cause 30100 prematuredeaths 603000 asthma attacks and 5130000 lost work days per year in the United States alone [14]

Nuclear power has the lowest delivered costs in ten of twelve countries studied [15] (India China and Russiawere not included) The two that did not have the lowest costs were the United States and Korea Thereport did not address the significant costs in the United States of protracted litigation and continuouslyrevised regulations and slow licensing of individual reactors It would be helpful if the Nuclear RegulatoryCommission were to adopt the French system of licensing reactor designs instead of individual reactors IFRs

aProf Nate Lewis in a private seminar Where will we get our energy at Caltech Jet Propulsion Laboratory estimated40-50centkWh

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 11

would be less expensive to build and operate than current technology because they are simpler standardizeddesigns instead of complicated one-off designs [3] The system is further substantially simplified because thecoolant operates at atmospheric pressure instead of 160 atmospheres and it absorbs essentially all neutronsthat escape the core so special alloys and over-designing are not needed to compensate for containmentvessel embrittlement caused by neutron damage and there are much fewer radioactive structural neutronactivation products

When external costs are included nuclear costs are estimated [16] to be about one tenth as much as coalCO2 emissions are explicitly excluded from costs of fossil-fuel systems Nuclear utilities have been paying01centkWh into the Federal Waste Disposal Fund since 1981 for used nuclear fuel disposal and reactor decom-missioning these costs are included as internal costs for LWR The radiological cost of mining is includedbut for IFR that would be irrelevant since there is already enough uranium above ground for several cen-turies For IFR fuel would be cheaper than free for a few hundred years because it would consume the LWRldquowasterdquo of which we are desperately eager to be rid and disposal of IFR waste would be far less expensivethan disposal of 5-used LWR fuel so IFR must have much lower than one tenth the operating cost of coal

The United States has already invested $8 Billion in the Yucca Mountain repository It is estimated to cost$436 Billion to complete [3] and current waste would require about 8-10 times more capacity than YuccaMountain would have at completion IFR would make Yucca Mountain irrelevant and is even more importantnow that the Obama administration has canceled Yucca Mountain Why is the Nevada Congressionaldelegation not insisting that the IFR demonstration project be restarted

Tony Blairrsquos government commissioned a study by Sir Nicholas Stern former vice president and chiefeconomist for the World Bank He recommended committing 1 of global GDP to reduce CO2 emissions to25-70 below current levels by mid century and that increased extreme weather costs alone could reach1 of GDP [3] For the United States that amount of todayrsquos GDP would be $290 billion per year In thenext section we estimate that producing an energy economy entirely powered by IFR could be accomplishedin fewer than 65 years Spending $290 billion per year on CO2 remediation during that interval would cost$188 trillion (in todayrsquos dollars) At $22BGWe for IFR 17 TWe would cost $374 trilliona ndash 20 asmuch ndash and would essentially eliminate CO2 emissions not reduce them by 25-70

What can be done

As admirable as they are conservation biofuels wind geothermal tides waves ocean currents and hydroalone or together cannot power any economy nor can they destroy the 59160 tonnes of ldquowasterdquo from thefirst 53 years of US LWR operations and more accumulated since 2006 Wind and solar are much moreexpensive than IFR There are no good hydro sites that have been exploited A 2017 study [17] concludedthat a 100 renewable-electricity system might not be physically feasible let alone economically viableCoal is terrible (and more expensive as well) Natural gas is more benign than coal but still produces CO2Oil produces CO2 and importing it and protecting access to overseas sources is expensive in both blood andnational treasure Solar is much more expensive than IFR and wouldnrsquot destroy waste That leaves IFR asthe only alternative that is both sufficient and economically viable

There are no serious plans for electric airplanes ships or heavy construction or farm equipment so someliquid hydrocarbon fuels will be needed for the foreseeable future Hydrogen is at present a nonstarterbecause of the storage problem Fortunately we know how to make hydrocarbon fuels from energy + water+ CO2b Using such fuels or hydrogen if the storage problem is solved (or maybe boron [3]) it is possibletherefore to convert the entire US energy economy to electricity provided mostly by IFR with hydrowind solar geothermal or biofuels where appropriate

The current US economy could be powered by about 17 TWe Each 1 GWe reactor needs 8ndash10 tonnesof startup fissile material which would at first largely be actinides from used LWR fuel and plutoniumand enriched uranium from decommissioned weapons The current US inventory of fissionable actinides is

aGEHitachi estimates $21-24 trillion ndash 11-13 of $188 trillionbThe Fischer-Tropsch process

Page 12 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

about 900 tonnes plus about 225 tonnes of weapons-grade 235Ua or enough to start up only about 110-140GWe of capacity using IFR With breeding that IFR fleet could have a sustained growth rate of 5 per yearor maybe more After startup the deployment rate would gradually accelerate from 5ndash7 per year helpedalong by actinides from still-operating LWRs and reach the desired 17 TWe goal within about 40ndash50 yearsor sooner to the extent renewable sources are appropriate or if uranium enrichment is continued

A single complete and permanent solution to all energy pollution nuclear waste and CO2 emission problemsis within our grasp All obstacles to that solution are political abetted and perpetuated by ignoranceintentional falsehoods irrational hysteria and opportunistic demagoguery not scientific technological orengineering problems Competition for energy resources is frequently blamed for wars IFR would eliminatethat excuse

Fast breeder reactors with fuel recycling will be developed There is no credible alternative There is an 800MWe reactor in service in Russiab and a 1200 MWe reactor is under development China has contractedto buy a BN-800 reactor from Russia South Korea has announced a 400 GWe fast-neutron reactor will beavailable for sale in 2020 India is building a prototype fast-neutron reactor to exploit their vast reservesof thorium China and Japan are making progress on their own designs American experts are retiring ordying far faster then younger ones are being prepared The United States will soon be a third-world countryin energy technology

Should the United States spend $188 trillion on CO2 reduction and mitigation $1075 trillion on coal sootdamage $68ndash102 trillion on solar cells $25 trillion on wind turbines $475 trillion on grid upgrades ndash about$130minus170 trillion altogether (and none of those would destroy one gram of nuclear waste) and suffer 2million unnecessary deaths due to coal emissions or spend $24 trillion on IFR (and render all nuclear wasteharmless)

For me the answer is obvious There is no time to waste We really ought to get started

Acknowledgment

This work benefited substantially from constructive criticism by the late Dr George S Stanford

Further reading

[1] Charles E Till and Yoon Il Chang Plentiful energy (2011) ISBN 978-1466384606

[2] William H Hannum Gerald E Marsh and George S Stanford Smarter use of nuclear waste ScientificAmerican (December 2005)httpswwwscientificamericancomarticlesmarter-use-of-nuclear-waste

[3] Tom Blees Prescription For The Planet The painless remedy for our energy and environmental crises(2008) ISBN 1-4196-5582-5 Impressive technical content plus off-putting gratuitous political insultsand nutty ideas about UN control of world energy

[4] D C Wade and Y I Chang The Integral Fast Reactor Physics of operation and safety NuclearScience and Engineering 100 4 (December 1988) 507ndash524

[5] Matthew D Eisaman Keshav Parajuly Alexander Tuganov Craig Eldershaw Noring Chang andKarl A Littau CO2 extraction from seawater using bipolar membrane electrodialysis Energy amp En-vironmental Science 5 6 (May 2012)

[6] National Renewable Energy Laboratory Land-use requirements of modern wind power plants in theUnited States httpwwwnrelgovdocsfy09osti45834pdf (2009)

a141 of LWR waste (httpwwwwhatisnuclearcomarticleswastehtmlcomposition) plus military inventory of 45tonnes 239Pu and 225 tonnes 235U (httpdsp-psdpwgscgccaCollection-RLoPBdPBPbp461-ehtm)

bhttpsenwikipediaorgwikiBN-800_reactor

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 13

[7] David Baurac Passively safe reactors rely on nature to keep them coolhttpwwwneanlgovAbouthnlogos-winter02-psrshtml (Winter 2002)

[8] United Nations Scientific Committee for the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) Scientific AnnexD Health effects due to radiation from the Chernobyl accident in Sources and Effects of IonizingRadiation 2008 Report to the General Assembly Volume II ISBN-13 978-92-1-142280-1 (2011)

[9] United Nations Scientific Committee for the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) Chapter IIIScientific Findings Part A Levels and effects of radiation exposure due to the nuclear accident afterthe great east-Japan earthquake and tsunami in Sources and Effects of Ionizing Radiation 2013 Reportto the General Assembly Volume I ISBN 978-92-1-142291-7 e-ISBN 978-92-1-056501-1 (2014)

[10] D L Goldman Some Implications of Using IFR High-Transuranic Plutonium in a Prolifer-ant Nuclear Weapon Program Technical Report CONDU-94-0199 Lawrence Livermore NationalLaboratory (March 1994)

[11] P E Donald E Lutz PGampE solar plants in the desert Truth about energy (2007)

[12] Nuclear Energy Agency Projected costs of generating electricityhttpwwwieaorgtextbasenppdffree2005ElecCostPDF (2005)

[13] Nuclear Energy Agency Projected costs of generating electricityhttpwwwieaorgTextbasenpsumElecCost2010SUMpdf (2010)

[14] Mark Fischetti The human cost of energy Scientific American (September 2011)

[15] Uranium Information Center (UIC) The Economics of Nuclear Power Technical report AustralianUranium Association Melbourne (March 2008)

[16] European Commission Research team of the ExternE project serieshttpwwwexterneinfoteamhtml (2007)

[17] B W Heard B W Brook T M L Wigley and C J A Bradshaw Burden of proof A comprehensivereview of the feasibility of 100 renewable-electricity systems Renewable and Sustainable EnergyReviews 76 (2017) 1122ndash1133

[18] William H Hannum The technology of the integral fast reactor and its associated fuel cycle Progressin Nuclear Energy 31 1ndash2 (1997)

[19] George S Stanford Integral fast reactors Source of safe abundant non-polluting powerhttpwwwnationalcenterorgNPA378html

[20] Gerald E Marsh and George S Stanford Bombs reprocessing and reactor grade plutonium Forumon Physics amp Society of the American Physical Society Newsletter 35 2 (April 2006)httphttpwwwthesciencecouncilcomindexphpgeorge-stanford

[21] Charles Till Plentiful energy and the IFR story The Republic News and Issues Magazine (June-September 2005) httpwwwsustainablenuclearorgPADspad0509tillhtml

[22] The Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP) httpwwwgnepenergygov

[23] Vic Reis Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP) in American Nuclear Society meetingReno NV American Nuclear Society (5 June 2006)httpwwwsustainablenuclearorgPADspad0606reispdf

[24] Doug Lightfoot Wallace Manheimer Dan Meneley Duane Pendergast and George S Stanford NuclearFission Fuel Is Inexhaustible in Climate Change Technology Conference (10ndash12 May 2006)Ottawa Ontario Canada

Page 14 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

[25] George S Stanford LWR Recycle Necessity or Impediment in ldquoGlobal 2003rdquo ANS WinterMeeting New Orleans American Nuclear Society (16ndash20 November 2003)httpwwwnationalcenterorgLWRStanfordpdf

[26] Senators Richard Lugar and Even Bayh A nuclear fuel bank advocated Chicago Tribune (22 October2006)

[27] Gerald E Marsh and George S Stanford Yucca Mountain The Right DecisionhttpwwwnationalcenterorgNPA415html (June 2002)

[28] Steve Kirsch httpskirschcompoliticsglobalwarmingifrhtm Summary blog

[29] Janne Wallenius Ateranvandning av langlivat avfall och sluten branslecykel mojlig i nya reaktortyper(Reuse of long-lived waste and a closed fuel cycle possible in new reactor types) Nucleus (April 2007)15ndash19

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 15

Appendix ndash Fission product yields from light-water reactors

See httpenwikipediaorgwikiFission_product_yield Sorted by half life

Number Isotope decay path Mass per

fractiondagger and half life GWe-year Comment

28336 131I802dminusrarr 131Xe 3150 kg Reduced by 195times10minus14 per year ndash 06 ng after one year

554478 Various lt 1y 5411 kglowast Decay to stable products

03912 106Ru3736dminusrarr 106Rh 3519 kg

asymp 035 134Cs2065yminusrarr 134Ba 3980 kg Created in the reactor from 133Cs by neutron capture

22713 147Pm262yminusrarr 147Sm 2833 kg

00297 125Sb276yminusrarr 125Te 315 g

lt00330 155Eu476yminusrarr 155Gd 434 g Mostly destroyed by neutron capture in the reactor

02717 85Kr1078yminusrarr 85Rb 1960 kg Currently released to the atmosphere

lt00003 113mCd141yminusrarr 113mIn 288 g Mostly destroyed by neutron capture in the reactor

57518 90Sr289yminusrarr 90Y 4393 kg Principal medium-term radiation and heat source319hminusrarr 90Zr

60899 137Cs3008yminusrarr 137Ba 7080 kg Principal medium-term radiation and heat source

lt04203 151Sm90yminusrarr 151Eu 5385 kg Mostly destroyed by neutron capture in the reactor

1e18yminusrarr 147Pm 151Eu is essentially stable262yminusrarr 147Sm1e11yminusrarr 143Nd

60507 99Tc211kyminusrarr 99Ru 5083 kg Dominant radiation source among fission products in the

range of 104 rarr 106 years candidate for transmutation

to 100Tc1546sminusrarr 100Ru

00236 126Sn230kyminusrarr 126Sb 252 g1235dminusrarr 126Te

00508 79Se295kyminusrarr 79Br 341 g

62856 93Zr153myminusrarr 93Nb 4960 kg

lt63333 135Cs23myminusrarr 135Ba 7255 kg

01629 107Pd65myminusrarr 107Ag 1479 kg

06576 129I157myminusrarr 129Xe 7198 kg Candidate for transmutation to 130I

1236hminusrarr 130Xe

asymp 644 133Cs stable 7268 kg A few percent converted by neutron capture to 134Cs

lt10888 149Sm stable 1377 kg

lt00065 157Gd stable 8659 gdaggerThe number fraction is the fraction of the atoms of fission products that are the specified isotope notthe mass fraction The mass is computed by multiplying the number fraction by the atomic mass andnormalizing the total to one tonne per GWe-yearlowastAssumes average mass number of 115

Thermal neutron transmutation of 90Sr 137Cs 126Sn 79Se 93Zr 135Cs and 107Pd is not practical due tolow neutron absorption cross section at the neutron temperature in LWRs

Page 16 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

The amount of an isotope at a particular time can be calculated by solving the differential equation

dN(t)

dt= k minus ln 2

τN(t)

where N(t) is the amount at time t in years k is the production rate per year and τ is the half-life in yearsThe solution (assuming N(0) = 0) is

N(t) =τk

ln 2

(1minus 2minustτ

)

From this when t gtgt τ the amount of each radioactive fission product is exponentially asymptotic toa constant approximately τk ln 2 decay compensates for production The amount of these materials isproportional to the power capacity not the total amount of energy produced If stable decay products arecontinuously removed the size of the repository is roughly constant

The following table shows asymptotic fractions and asymptotic masses per GWe (not GWe-year) of shortand medium half-life fission products The fraction is measured in terms of the annual number of fissionproduct atoms which is twice the number of actinide atoms consumed

Asymptotic number fraction and mass per GWe

Isotope Fraction Mass kg Isotope Fraction Mass kg

137Cs3008yminusrarr 137Ba 2643 3072lowast 90Sr

289yminusrarr 90Y2671dminusrarr 90Zr 2398 1831

Various τ lt 1y 7999 lt7806dagger 147Pm262yminusrarr 147Sm 85852 1071

85Kr1078yminusrarr 85Rb 4226 3048Dagger 134Cs

2065yminusrarr 134Ba 1043 1185lowast

106Ru3736dminusrarr 106Rh 05773 5192 155Eu

476yminusrarr 155Gd 02266 2981125Sb

276yminusrarr 125Te 01183 1254 131I802dminusrarr 131Xe 00898 0998

lowastAssumes isotope separation of 133Cs 134Cs 135Cs and 137Cs Total caesium

accumulates at 220 kgGWe-yrdaggerThe unclassified components are assumed to have an average mass number of

115 and to have a one year half life Since they are a mixture of products with

half lives under one year the true asymptotic fraction and mass are lessDagger 85Kr is currently vented to the atmosphere

The total mass of these products exponentially approaches an asymptote of less than 5844 kg per GWeor 9934 tonnes for a 17 TWe economy If their decay products are continuously removed storage isnot a problem If not reprocessed they are diluted by their decay products and therefore their specificactivity declines sufficiently that they are not radioactively dangerous after 200ndash300 years but the volumeis proportional to kt not k In 200 years of a 17 TWe economy the amount is less than 250000 tonnes lessthan 130000 cubic yards or less than 44 feet deep on a football field Separating the streams according tohalf life reduces the 200-year stream by 85

For long-lived isotopes ie t ltlt τ on a human time scale decay does not compensate for productionApproximating 2minustτ = exp(minust ln 2τ) asymp 1minus t ln 2τ the solution is N(t) asymp kt as expected The amount ofthese fission products is in proportion to the total amount of energy produced not the power capacity

Long-lived isotopes accumulate at the rate of about 182 kg per GWe-year or about 309 tonnes per year fora 17 TWe economy 99Tc and 129I can be destroyed by transmutation but the others amounting to about124 kg per GWe-year are impractical to destroy by transmutation If other isotopes of caesium (about 147kg per GWe-year) are not separated from 135Cs the total long-term disposal stream increases to 271 kg perGWe-year (but its specific activity decreases) If stored for about 30 years before disposal about 35 kg perGWe-year of 137Cs will decay leaving about 235 kg per GWe-year or about 400 tonnes per year for a 17TWe economy if the resulting stable 137Ba were removed Surely disposal of 400 tonnes per year of theseisotopes would not be a problem

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 17

Value of one tonne of used LWR fuelseparated and reduced to metal

Value Radioactivity

Value $tonne (MevBq-s) Half life Heat

Substance Mass (gr) $gr of waste α β γ (years) Wgr238U 944100 0143 135006 42 0496 447times109

236U 3971 0143 568 45 0494 234times107

235U 7974 0143 1140 44 0657 704234U 225 0143 32 48 00532 245times105

237Np 503 0143 72 47 00294 214times106

242Pu 454 0143 65 48 00449 376times105

241Pu 111 0143 16 49 01485 1435240Pu 2302 0143 329 52 05424 656times103

239Pu 5025 0143 719 52 00516 241times104

238Pu 95 0143 14 55 00435 8774 156241Am 1084 0143 155 55 00595 432243Am 85 0143 12 53 00747 737244Cm 4 0143 1 58 00428 1811 244

Actinides 965933 0143 13812996Zr 798 305 2434 Stable94Zr 741 305 2260 Stable93Zr 718 305 2190 0010 00305 161times106

92Zr 639 305 1948 Stable91Zr 590 305 1799 Stable90Zr 391 305 1192 Stable

Fuel cladding 3877 305 1182299Tc for alloys 771 1000 7710 00846 weak 2111times105

90Sr 391 200 782 01958 29 09388Sr 350 200 700 Stable137Cs 377 200 754 0187 0479 3017 042135Cs 300 200 600 00757 0662 23times106

133Cs 1125 200 2250 Stable

Heat sources 2543 200 5086

Br 22 100 22 Stable

Mo 3345 0257 860 Stable

Ru 2177 4578 99663 Stable

Ag 76 200 152 Stable

Cd 108 200 216 Stable

Ba 2311 0560 1295 Stable

Tb 26 3000 78 Stable

Dy 14 500 7 Stable

Rh 467 50000 233500 Stable87Rb 365 1178 4300 00817 481times1010

123Te 485 139 675 gt 92times 1016

138La 1215 180 2187 00329 144 102times1011

144Nd 3488 220 7673 190 229times1015

115In 26 1000 26 01532 441times1014

(cont)

Page 18 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

Value of one tonne of used LWR fuelseparated and reduced to metal (cont)

Value Radioactivity

Value $tonne (MevBq-s) Half life Heat

Substance Mass (gr) $gr of waste α β γ (years) Wgr142Ce 2355 028 662 15 gt 50times 1016

152Gd 142 548 778 215 14times1015

147Sm 200 200 400 225 106times1011

148Sm 167 200 334 19323 70times1015

149Sm 24 200 5 Stable151Sm 88 200 17 00196 00216 90152Sm + 154Sm 419 200 838 Stable107Pd 1371 8294 113710 00093 01476 65times106

90Y 456 1000 4560 09336 weak 64 hr152Eu 035 6000 21 00831 0122 134154Eu 1095 6000 6570 0221 0123 8601155Eu 016 6000 9 0047 0087 4753

Other solid 19297 4785583H 00034 294117 1000 00156 1254He 289 173 5 Stable85Kr 308 200 616 0687 0514 1072

Xe 5332 170 9050 Stable

Gases 5643 10671

Total fission 32131 1600 513937

products

Not counted 1936

Total 1000000 065 652066

httpbrcgove-mailsAugust10Commercial Value of 1 Metric ton of used fuelpdf with radioac-tivity data from httpwwwnndcbnlgovchart

Actinides can be recycled as fuel

Zirconium from fuel pin alloys and cladding and fission products can be recycled into new fuel pin claddingand alloys

Some radioactive elements produce sufficient heat to be usable as energy sources for example in radioisotopethermal generators for space applications These would not be isotopically separated 90Sr is 53 of thetotal strontium in fission products so heat production for all strontium is 049 Wgr 137Cs is 21 of thetotal caesium in fission products so heat production for all caesium is 0088 Wgr

Technetium is valuable for alloying with rhenium and has medical applications

Gases would be separated first then actinides then highly radioactive products This would reduce the costof separating and reducing the stable and less radioactive products

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 19

Appendix ndash Fuel and waste cycles

Actinides

IFRReprocessing

PrimaryProcessing

Disposaland sale

NonradioactiveLong half lifemostly 135Cs and 93Zr30 kg per GWe-yr665 kg per GWe-yearwith all cesium

ContinuousReprocessing

584 tonnes per GWe

Medium andshort half life

1 Tonneper GWe-year

99Tc 13 kg129I 177 kg

per GWe-yr

Usedfuel

Usedfuel

Sale

Nonradioactive

20 tonnes per GWe-yr

Enrichment

Sale

Disposaland sale

Enrichment LWR andLWR reprocessing

eventually phased out

LWRLWR

Reprocessing

Depleted uraniumstorage

Plutonium

8-10 tonnesper GWestartup

IFR

Enriched uranium

Fis

sion

pro

duct

s1

Ton

ne p

er G

We-

yr

MinedUranium

Acceleratortransmutation

Unused fuel and fissionproducts for transmutation

1 tonneper GWe-yr

Page 20 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

Appendix ndash Partitioning and Transmutation

Medium- and long-lived fission products could in principle be destroyed by transmuting them to isotopesthat are stable or have short half lives which decay to stable isotopes

The following tablea shows that 99Tc 129I 93Zr 107Pd and 135Cs can be transmuted much faster thantheir natural decay (ie T Jtrans ltlt T J12) The radiotoxicity of 107Pd and 135Cs is so small it is not worth

the bother to transmute them 93Zr can be recycled into fuel pin cladding or fuel alloying If 99Tc and129I were destroyed there could be very few remaining objections to nuclear power For 90Sr and 137CsT Jtrans gtgt T J12 so transmuting them is not interesting They are biologically active but can simply be

stored for about six half lives (180 years) after which the remaining amounts (069 and 11 kgGWe-yr) canbe discarded or sold If they are initially deposited in ldquodeep geologicalrdquo storage the containment durationrequirement for the repositories is significantly shorter by a factor of 1500 than for used LWR fuel For 79Seand 126Sn T Jtrans ltlt T J12 but T Jtrans is not sufficiently small to be interesting Although the radiotoxicity

per gram of 126Sn and 79Se is large they are produced in such small amounts that their total radiotoxicityper GWe-yr is comparable to that of the others

Isotope J decay Radiotoxicity σJ(nγ) (barns) T Jtrans (years) Mass per Transmuted

mode and T J12 Svg SvGWe-yr Thermal Fast Thermal Fast GWe-yr decay mode

90Sr289yminusrarr 90Y 1411k 1664M 014 001 1600 2200 1179 kg 91Sr

963hminusrarr 91Y137Cs

3008yminusrarr 137Ba 4187k 1152M 002 001 11000 2200 2752 kg 138Cs3341mminusrarr 138Ba

99Tc211kyminusrarr 99Ru 04 8708 43 02 51 110 2177 kg 100Tc

1546sminusrarr 100Ru126Sn

230kyminusrarr 126Sb 4936 4019 005 0005 4400 4400 0814 kg 127Sn21hminusrarr 127Sb

79Se295kyminusrarr 79Br 7478 1271 01 003 2200 7300 0170 kg 80Se is stable

93Zr153myminusrarr 93Nb 0102 2097 028 003 790 730 2056 kg 94Zr is stable

135Cs23myminusrarr 135Ba 0085 1009 13 007 170 310 1187 kg 136Cs

1304dminusrarr 136Ba107Pd

65myminusrarr 107Ag 00007 8309 03 05 730 44 6922 kg 108Pd is stable129I

157myminusrarr 129Xe 0718 4921 43 014 51 160 8853 kg 130I1236hminusrarr 130Xe

T Jtrans is the transmutation half-time for isotope J

Amounts and radioactivity from ORIGEN 22 Radiotoxicity dose factors from ICRP publication 119

This graph from the Swedish Radiation Safety Authorityb[29]

0001

001

01

1

10

100Radiotoxic inventory [Svg]

102 103 104 105 106101

TRU

FP

Uranium in nature

t[y]

shows that most of the radiotoxicity of used nuclear fuel arisesfrom the transuranics which IFR would consume and thatthe radiotoxicity of fission products is below the radiotoxic-ity of uranium ore within 200-300 years Transmuting 99Tcand 129I would reduce the long-term tail of the fission productradiotoxicity from 300 years onward by 60 The ordinateis radiotoxicity per gram of the original fission products notthe remaining fission products at the time specified by the ab-scissa Fission products are stored together stable ones arenot continuously separated from radioactive ones

aData from httpusersictpit˜pub_offlectureslns005Number_2Slessarev_1pdfbhttpwwwstralsakerhetsmyndighetenseGlobalPublikationerTidskriftNucleus2007Nucleus-4-2007pdf

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 21

Appendix ndash Worldwide limitations of alternative energy sources

Details in httpwwwphysicsucsdedu~tmurphyphys239shu_energypdf by Dr Frank Shu

Solar photovoltaic

Solar photovoltaic could in principle supply 15 TWe enough to power the Earthrsquos entire current energyeconomy using about 02 of the land area of the Earth below 60 latitude

Wind

Land-based wind cannot supply more than about 18 TWe or about 12 of the current energy economy

Ocean currents

The Kuroshio current which flows northward in the western Pacific past Taiwan and Japan has a powerof about 100 GW Assuming 50 efficiency of extraction allows about 50 GWe to be extracted The gulfstream flows twice as fast producing eight times as much power allowing about 400 GWe to be extractedExtracting significant power from ocean currents anywhere in the world would have profound effects onclimate

Coastal ocean waves

Assuming 50 efficiency of energy extraction ocean waves impinging on all the shorelines of the Earth couldprovide about 024 TWe or about 16 of the current energy economy

Geothermal

Geothermal sources cannot provide more than about 04 TWe or about 27 of the current energy economy

Tides

Energy extractable from tidal sources amounts to about 3 GWe worldwide or about 002 of the currentenergy economy It is only economically feasible in bays such as the Bay of Fundy which concentrate tidesto heights of as much as 5 meters Damming such bays has effects on the resonant frequency of nearby baysand estuaries profoundly altering currents and tides in nearby areas

Hydroelectric

The Earthrsquos land area is 148times 1012 m2 Average rainfall is 12 meters per year Water density is 103 kgm3

Total rainfall is thus about 18times 1017 kg Dropping 100 meters releases 18times 1017 kgtimes 98 ms2 times 100 m =

176times 1020 joule Spread out over a year 315times 107 s gives 56 TW Assuming 90 efficiency yields 5 TWeThe total available is less perhaps 35 TWe if polar regions are excluded Hydroelectric installations observeabout 30 capacity factor yielding total worldwide availability of about 1 TWe-yryr or about 67 of thecurrent energy economy

Total

Excluding solar photovoltaic and ocean currents alternative electricity sources could yield about 3443 TWeworldwide or about 23 of the current energy economy

Page 22 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

storage battery It weighs 1200 tonnes provides 10 MWh storage and cost $350Wh Amortized over fiveyears this is 57centkWha To have constant output the panel capacity needs to be twice the demand ndash halffor immediate use and half to charge batteries so the capital cost for cells plus storage is 291cent per kWhThis does not include mounting transportation operation maintenance land recycling or grid upgradesThe equation used to calculate amortized cost is

A(n) = rA(nminus 1)minus p

where A(0) is the initial cost per watt and A(n) is the amount remaining to be paid after n payments ofp dollars at an interest rate of 100(r minus 1) per payment period Solving this equation for A(n) settingA(n) = 0 and solving for p gives

p = A(0) rnr minus 1

rn minus 1

The cost per watt hour is pH where H is hours per payment period If the payment period is one yearand power is provided continuously H is 8766 (36525times24) Because solar panels have a 45 year energypayback period the final value needs to be multiplied by n(nminus 45) where n is years

The following table compares construction costs for eight renewable sources [3] Costs are per peak kWenot average kWe The capacity factor is not included

Cost Cost Cost CostSource $kWe Source $kWe Source $kWe Source $kWeWind (onshore) 800 Wind (offshore) 1700 Hydro 2000 Geothermal 2100Biomass 2300 Solar (thermal) 2400 Tidal 2800 Solar (PV) 5900

The following table compares operating and construction costs for six electric power technologies [3] [12][13] External grid upgrade and storage costs are not included Since 1981 nuclear power utilities havebeen paying 01centkWh into the Federal Nuclear Waste Fund so LWR decommissioning and ldquowasterdquo handlingcosts are included as internal costs

Operating Average Effective FederalCost Construction Capacity Construction Life Delivered Subsidy

Fuel centkWh Cost $kWe Factor Cost $kWedagger (yrs) centkWhDagger centkWhlowast

LWR Nuclear 49 1000-2000 gt 90 1111-2222 50 515ndash541 0210Coal 60-63 1000-1500 gt 90 1111-1667 50 625ndash668 0056Hydro 40-80 2000 asymp 33 6000 100 469ndash869 0136Gas 76-92 400-800 gt 90 444-888 30 777ndash954 0060Wind 49-100 1000-2000 asymp 21 4762-9524 20 762ndash1543 3533Solar PV 150-300 6000-9000 asymp 15 40000-60000 30 3021ndash5282 23131daggerConstruction cost capacity factorDaggerOperating cost + construction cost ( capacity factor times lifetime ) Amortization not includedlowasthttpwwweiagovanalysisrequestssubsidy tables ES4 and ES5 for 2013

Particulate emissions alone from coal-fired power plants cost $165 billion [3] and cause 30100 prematuredeaths 603000 asthma attacks and 5130000 lost work days per year in the United States alone [14]

Nuclear power has the lowest delivered costs in ten of twelve countries studied [15] (India China and Russiawere not included) The two that did not have the lowest costs were the United States and Korea Thereport did not address the significant costs in the United States of protracted litigation and continuouslyrevised regulations and slow licensing of individual reactors It would be helpful if the Nuclear RegulatoryCommission were to adopt the French system of licensing reactor designs instead of individual reactors IFRs

aProf Nate Lewis in a private seminar Where will we get our energy at Caltech Jet Propulsion Laboratory estimated40-50centkWh

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 11

would be less expensive to build and operate than current technology because they are simpler standardizeddesigns instead of complicated one-off designs [3] The system is further substantially simplified because thecoolant operates at atmospheric pressure instead of 160 atmospheres and it absorbs essentially all neutronsthat escape the core so special alloys and over-designing are not needed to compensate for containmentvessel embrittlement caused by neutron damage and there are much fewer radioactive structural neutronactivation products

When external costs are included nuclear costs are estimated [16] to be about one tenth as much as coalCO2 emissions are explicitly excluded from costs of fossil-fuel systems Nuclear utilities have been paying01centkWh into the Federal Waste Disposal Fund since 1981 for used nuclear fuel disposal and reactor decom-missioning these costs are included as internal costs for LWR The radiological cost of mining is includedbut for IFR that would be irrelevant since there is already enough uranium above ground for several cen-turies For IFR fuel would be cheaper than free for a few hundred years because it would consume the LWRldquowasterdquo of which we are desperately eager to be rid and disposal of IFR waste would be far less expensivethan disposal of 5-used LWR fuel so IFR must have much lower than one tenth the operating cost of coal

The United States has already invested $8 Billion in the Yucca Mountain repository It is estimated to cost$436 Billion to complete [3] and current waste would require about 8-10 times more capacity than YuccaMountain would have at completion IFR would make Yucca Mountain irrelevant and is even more importantnow that the Obama administration has canceled Yucca Mountain Why is the Nevada Congressionaldelegation not insisting that the IFR demonstration project be restarted

Tony Blairrsquos government commissioned a study by Sir Nicholas Stern former vice president and chiefeconomist for the World Bank He recommended committing 1 of global GDP to reduce CO2 emissions to25-70 below current levels by mid century and that increased extreme weather costs alone could reach1 of GDP [3] For the United States that amount of todayrsquos GDP would be $290 billion per year In thenext section we estimate that producing an energy economy entirely powered by IFR could be accomplishedin fewer than 65 years Spending $290 billion per year on CO2 remediation during that interval would cost$188 trillion (in todayrsquos dollars) At $22BGWe for IFR 17 TWe would cost $374 trilliona ndash 20 asmuch ndash and would essentially eliminate CO2 emissions not reduce them by 25-70

What can be done

As admirable as they are conservation biofuels wind geothermal tides waves ocean currents and hydroalone or together cannot power any economy nor can they destroy the 59160 tonnes of ldquowasterdquo from thefirst 53 years of US LWR operations and more accumulated since 2006 Wind and solar are much moreexpensive than IFR There are no good hydro sites that have been exploited A 2017 study [17] concludedthat a 100 renewable-electricity system might not be physically feasible let alone economically viableCoal is terrible (and more expensive as well) Natural gas is more benign than coal but still produces CO2Oil produces CO2 and importing it and protecting access to overseas sources is expensive in both blood andnational treasure Solar is much more expensive than IFR and wouldnrsquot destroy waste That leaves IFR asthe only alternative that is both sufficient and economically viable

There are no serious plans for electric airplanes ships or heavy construction or farm equipment so someliquid hydrocarbon fuels will be needed for the foreseeable future Hydrogen is at present a nonstarterbecause of the storage problem Fortunately we know how to make hydrocarbon fuels from energy + water+ CO2b Using such fuels or hydrogen if the storage problem is solved (or maybe boron [3]) it is possibletherefore to convert the entire US energy economy to electricity provided mostly by IFR with hydrowind solar geothermal or biofuels where appropriate

The current US economy could be powered by about 17 TWe Each 1 GWe reactor needs 8ndash10 tonnesof startup fissile material which would at first largely be actinides from used LWR fuel and plutoniumand enriched uranium from decommissioned weapons The current US inventory of fissionable actinides is

aGEHitachi estimates $21-24 trillion ndash 11-13 of $188 trillionbThe Fischer-Tropsch process

Page 12 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

about 900 tonnes plus about 225 tonnes of weapons-grade 235Ua or enough to start up only about 110-140GWe of capacity using IFR With breeding that IFR fleet could have a sustained growth rate of 5 per yearor maybe more After startup the deployment rate would gradually accelerate from 5ndash7 per year helpedalong by actinides from still-operating LWRs and reach the desired 17 TWe goal within about 40ndash50 yearsor sooner to the extent renewable sources are appropriate or if uranium enrichment is continued

A single complete and permanent solution to all energy pollution nuclear waste and CO2 emission problemsis within our grasp All obstacles to that solution are political abetted and perpetuated by ignoranceintentional falsehoods irrational hysteria and opportunistic demagoguery not scientific technological orengineering problems Competition for energy resources is frequently blamed for wars IFR would eliminatethat excuse

Fast breeder reactors with fuel recycling will be developed There is no credible alternative There is an 800MWe reactor in service in Russiab and a 1200 MWe reactor is under development China has contractedto buy a BN-800 reactor from Russia South Korea has announced a 400 GWe fast-neutron reactor will beavailable for sale in 2020 India is building a prototype fast-neutron reactor to exploit their vast reservesof thorium China and Japan are making progress on their own designs American experts are retiring ordying far faster then younger ones are being prepared The United States will soon be a third-world countryin energy technology

Should the United States spend $188 trillion on CO2 reduction and mitigation $1075 trillion on coal sootdamage $68ndash102 trillion on solar cells $25 trillion on wind turbines $475 trillion on grid upgrades ndash about$130minus170 trillion altogether (and none of those would destroy one gram of nuclear waste) and suffer 2million unnecessary deaths due to coal emissions or spend $24 trillion on IFR (and render all nuclear wasteharmless)

For me the answer is obvious There is no time to waste We really ought to get started

Acknowledgment

This work benefited substantially from constructive criticism by the late Dr George S Stanford

Further reading

[1] Charles E Till and Yoon Il Chang Plentiful energy (2011) ISBN 978-1466384606

[2] William H Hannum Gerald E Marsh and George S Stanford Smarter use of nuclear waste ScientificAmerican (December 2005)httpswwwscientificamericancomarticlesmarter-use-of-nuclear-waste

[3] Tom Blees Prescription For The Planet The painless remedy for our energy and environmental crises(2008) ISBN 1-4196-5582-5 Impressive technical content plus off-putting gratuitous political insultsand nutty ideas about UN control of world energy

[4] D C Wade and Y I Chang The Integral Fast Reactor Physics of operation and safety NuclearScience and Engineering 100 4 (December 1988) 507ndash524

[5] Matthew D Eisaman Keshav Parajuly Alexander Tuganov Craig Eldershaw Noring Chang andKarl A Littau CO2 extraction from seawater using bipolar membrane electrodialysis Energy amp En-vironmental Science 5 6 (May 2012)

[6] National Renewable Energy Laboratory Land-use requirements of modern wind power plants in theUnited States httpwwwnrelgovdocsfy09osti45834pdf (2009)

a141 of LWR waste (httpwwwwhatisnuclearcomarticleswastehtmlcomposition) plus military inventory of 45tonnes 239Pu and 225 tonnes 235U (httpdsp-psdpwgscgccaCollection-RLoPBdPBPbp461-ehtm)

bhttpsenwikipediaorgwikiBN-800_reactor

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 13

[7] David Baurac Passively safe reactors rely on nature to keep them coolhttpwwwneanlgovAbouthnlogos-winter02-psrshtml (Winter 2002)

[8] United Nations Scientific Committee for the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) Scientific AnnexD Health effects due to radiation from the Chernobyl accident in Sources and Effects of IonizingRadiation 2008 Report to the General Assembly Volume II ISBN-13 978-92-1-142280-1 (2011)

[9] United Nations Scientific Committee for the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) Chapter IIIScientific Findings Part A Levels and effects of radiation exposure due to the nuclear accident afterthe great east-Japan earthquake and tsunami in Sources and Effects of Ionizing Radiation 2013 Reportto the General Assembly Volume I ISBN 978-92-1-142291-7 e-ISBN 978-92-1-056501-1 (2014)

[10] D L Goldman Some Implications of Using IFR High-Transuranic Plutonium in a Prolifer-ant Nuclear Weapon Program Technical Report CONDU-94-0199 Lawrence Livermore NationalLaboratory (March 1994)

[11] P E Donald E Lutz PGampE solar plants in the desert Truth about energy (2007)

[12] Nuclear Energy Agency Projected costs of generating electricityhttpwwwieaorgtextbasenppdffree2005ElecCostPDF (2005)

[13] Nuclear Energy Agency Projected costs of generating electricityhttpwwwieaorgTextbasenpsumElecCost2010SUMpdf (2010)

[14] Mark Fischetti The human cost of energy Scientific American (September 2011)

[15] Uranium Information Center (UIC) The Economics of Nuclear Power Technical report AustralianUranium Association Melbourne (March 2008)

[16] European Commission Research team of the ExternE project serieshttpwwwexterneinfoteamhtml (2007)

[17] B W Heard B W Brook T M L Wigley and C J A Bradshaw Burden of proof A comprehensivereview of the feasibility of 100 renewable-electricity systems Renewable and Sustainable EnergyReviews 76 (2017) 1122ndash1133

[18] William H Hannum The technology of the integral fast reactor and its associated fuel cycle Progressin Nuclear Energy 31 1ndash2 (1997)

[19] George S Stanford Integral fast reactors Source of safe abundant non-polluting powerhttpwwwnationalcenterorgNPA378html

[20] Gerald E Marsh and George S Stanford Bombs reprocessing and reactor grade plutonium Forumon Physics amp Society of the American Physical Society Newsletter 35 2 (April 2006)httphttpwwwthesciencecouncilcomindexphpgeorge-stanford

[21] Charles Till Plentiful energy and the IFR story The Republic News and Issues Magazine (June-September 2005) httpwwwsustainablenuclearorgPADspad0509tillhtml

[22] The Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP) httpwwwgnepenergygov

[23] Vic Reis Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP) in American Nuclear Society meetingReno NV American Nuclear Society (5 June 2006)httpwwwsustainablenuclearorgPADspad0606reispdf

[24] Doug Lightfoot Wallace Manheimer Dan Meneley Duane Pendergast and George S Stanford NuclearFission Fuel Is Inexhaustible in Climate Change Technology Conference (10ndash12 May 2006)Ottawa Ontario Canada

Page 14 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

[25] George S Stanford LWR Recycle Necessity or Impediment in ldquoGlobal 2003rdquo ANS WinterMeeting New Orleans American Nuclear Society (16ndash20 November 2003)httpwwwnationalcenterorgLWRStanfordpdf

[26] Senators Richard Lugar and Even Bayh A nuclear fuel bank advocated Chicago Tribune (22 October2006)

[27] Gerald E Marsh and George S Stanford Yucca Mountain The Right DecisionhttpwwwnationalcenterorgNPA415html (June 2002)

[28] Steve Kirsch httpskirschcompoliticsglobalwarmingifrhtm Summary blog

[29] Janne Wallenius Ateranvandning av langlivat avfall och sluten branslecykel mojlig i nya reaktortyper(Reuse of long-lived waste and a closed fuel cycle possible in new reactor types) Nucleus (April 2007)15ndash19

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 15

Appendix ndash Fission product yields from light-water reactors

See httpenwikipediaorgwikiFission_product_yield Sorted by half life

Number Isotope decay path Mass per

fractiondagger and half life GWe-year Comment

28336 131I802dminusrarr 131Xe 3150 kg Reduced by 195times10minus14 per year ndash 06 ng after one year

554478 Various lt 1y 5411 kglowast Decay to stable products

03912 106Ru3736dminusrarr 106Rh 3519 kg

asymp 035 134Cs2065yminusrarr 134Ba 3980 kg Created in the reactor from 133Cs by neutron capture

22713 147Pm262yminusrarr 147Sm 2833 kg

00297 125Sb276yminusrarr 125Te 315 g

lt00330 155Eu476yminusrarr 155Gd 434 g Mostly destroyed by neutron capture in the reactor

02717 85Kr1078yminusrarr 85Rb 1960 kg Currently released to the atmosphere

lt00003 113mCd141yminusrarr 113mIn 288 g Mostly destroyed by neutron capture in the reactor

57518 90Sr289yminusrarr 90Y 4393 kg Principal medium-term radiation and heat source319hminusrarr 90Zr

60899 137Cs3008yminusrarr 137Ba 7080 kg Principal medium-term radiation and heat source

lt04203 151Sm90yminusrarr 151Eu 5385 kg Mostly destroyed by neutron capture in the reactor

1e18yminusrarr 147Pm 151Eu is essentially stable262yminusrarr 147Sm1e11yminusrarr 143Nd

60507 99Tc211kyminusrarr 99Ru 5083 kg Dominant radiation source among fission products in the

range of 104 rarr 106 years candidate for transmutation

to 100Tc1546sminusrarr 100Ru

00236 126Sn230kyminusrarr 126Sb 252 g1235dminusrarr 126Te

00508 79Se295kyminusrarr 79Br 341 g

62856 93Zr153myminusrarr 93Nb 4960 kg

lt63333 135Cs23myminusrarr 135Ba 7255 kg

01629 107Pd65myminusrarr 107Ag 1479 kg

06576 129I157myminusrarr 129Xe 7198 kg Candidate for transmutation to 130I

1236hminusrarr 130Xe

asymp 644 133Cs stable 7268 kg A few percent converted by neutron capture to 134Cs

lt10888 149Sm stable 1377 kg

lt00065 157Gd stable 8659 gdaggerThe number fraction is the fraction of the atoms of fission products that are the specified isotope notthe mass fraction The mass is computed by multiplying the number fraction by the atomic mass andnormalizing the total to one tonne per GWe-yearlowastAssumes average mass number of 115

Thermal neutron transmutation of 90Sr 137Cs 126Sn 79Se 93Zr 135Cs and 107Pd is not practical due tolow neutron absorption cross section at the neutron temperature in LWRs

Page 16 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

The amount of an isotope at a particular time can be calculated by solving the differential equation

dN(t)

dt= k minus ln 2

τN(t)

where N(t) is the amount at time t in years k is the production rate per year and τ is the half-life in yearsThe solution (assuming N(0) = 0) is

N(t) =τk

ln 2

(1minus 2minustτ

)

From this when t gtgt τ the amount of each radioactive fission product is exponentially asymptotic toa constant approximately τk ln 2 decay compensates for production The amount of these materials isproportional to the power capacity not the total amount of energy produced If stable decay products arecontinuously removed the size of the repository is roughly constant

The following table shows asymptotic fractions and asymptotic masses per GWe (not GWe-year) of shortand medium half-life fission products The fraction is measured in terms of the annual number of fissionproduct atoms which is twice the number of actinide atoms consumed

Asymptotic number fraction and mass per GWe

Isotope Fraction Mass kg Isotope Fraction Mass kg

137Cs3008yminusrarr 137Ba 2643 3072lowast 90Sr

289yminusrarr 90Y2671dminusrarr 90Zr 2398 1831

Various τ lt 1y 7999 lt7806dagger 147Pm262yminusrarr 147Sm 85852 1071

85Kr1078yminusrarr 85Rb 4226 3048Dagger 134Cs

2065yminusrarr 134Ba 1043 1185lowast

106Ru3736dminusrarr 106Rh 05773 5192 155Eu

476yminusrarr 155Gd 02266 2981125Sb

276yminusrarr 125Te 01183 1254 131I802dminusrarr 131Xe 00898 0998

lowastAssumes isotope separation of 133Cs 134Cs 135Cs and 137Cs Total caesium

accumulates at 220 kgGWe-yrdaggerThe unclassified components are assumed to have an average mass number of

115 and to have a one year half life Since they are a mixture of products with

half lives under one year the true asymptotic fraction and mass are lessDagger 85Kr is currently vented to the atmosphere

The total mass of these products exponentially approaches an asymptote of less than 5844 kg per GWeor 9934 tonnes for a 17 TWe economy If their decay products are continuously removed storage isnot a problem If not reprocessed they are diluted by their decay products and therefore their specificactivity declines sufficiently that they are not radioactively dangerous after 200ndash300 years but the volumeis proportional to kt not k In 200 years of a 17 TWe economy the amount is less than 250000 tonnes lessthan 130000 cubic yards or less than 44 feet deep on a football field Separating the streams according tohalf life reduces the 200-year stream by 85

For long-lived isotopes ie t ltlt τ on a human time scale decay does not compensate for productionApproximating 2minustτ = exp(minust ln 2τ) asymp 1minus t ln 2τ the solution is N(t) asymp kt as expected The amount ofthese fission products is in proportion to the total amount of energy produced not the power capacity

Long-lived isotopes accumulate at the rate of about 182 kg per GWe-year or about 309 tonnes per year fora 17 TWe economy 99Tc and 129I can be destroyed by transmutation but the others amounting to about124 kg per GWe-year are impractical to destroy by transmutation If other isotopes of caesium (about 147kg per GWe-year) are not separated from 135Cs the total long-term disposal stream increases to 271 kg perGWe-year (but its specific activity decreases) If stored for about 30 years before disposal about 35 kg perGWe-year of 137Cs will decay leaving about 235 kg per GWe-year or about 400 tonnes per year for a 17TWe economy if the resulting stable 137Ba were removed Surely disposal of 400 tonnes per year of theseisotopes would not be a problem

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 17

Value of one tonne of used LWR fuelseparated and reduced to metal

Value Radioactivity

Value $tonne (MevBq-s) Half life Heat

Substance Mass (gr) $gr of waste α β γ (years) Wgr238U 944100 0143 135006 42 0496 447times109

236U 3971 0143 568 45 0494 234times107

235U 7974 0143 1140 44 0657 704234U 225 0143 32 48 00532 245times105

237Np 503 0143 72 47 00294 214times106

242Pu 454 0143 65 48 00449 376times105

241Pu 111 0143 16 49 01485 1435240Pu 2302 0143 329 52 05424 656times103

239Pu 5025 0143 719 52 00516 241times104

238Pu 95 0143 14 55 00435 8774 156241Am 1084 0143 155 55 00595 432243Am 85 0143 12 53 00747 737244Cm 4 0143 1 58 00428 1811 244

Actinides 965933 0143 13812996Zr 798 305 2434 Stable94Zr 741 305 2260 Stable93Zr 718 305 2190 0010 00305 161times106

92Zr 639 305 1948 Stable91Zr 590 305 1799 Stable90Zr 391 305 1192 Stable

Fuel cladding 3877 305 1182299Tc for alloys 771 1000 7710 00846 weak 2111times105

90Sr 391 200 782 01958 29 09388Sr 350 200 700 Stable137Cs 377 200 754 0187 0479 3017 042135Cs 300 200 600 00757 0662 23times106

133Cs 1125 200 2250 Stable

Heat sources 2543 200 5086

Br 22 100 22 Stable

Mo 3345 0257 860 Stable

Ru 2177 4578 99663 Stable

Ag 76 200 152 Stable

Cd 108 200 216 Stable

Ba 2311 0560 1295 Stable

Tb 26 3000 78 Stable

Dy 14 500 7 Stable

Rh 467 50000 233500 Stable87Rb 365 1178 4300 00817 481times1010

123Te 485 139 675 gt 92times 1016

138La 1215 180 2187 00329 144 102times1011

144Nd 3488 220 7673 190 229times1015

115In 26 1000 26 01532 441times1014

(cont)

Page 18 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

Value of one tonne of used LWR fuelseparated and reduced to metal (cont)

Value Radioactivity

Value $tonne (MevBq-s) Half life Heat

Substance Mass (gr) $gr of waste α β γ (years) Wgr142Ce 2355 028 662 15 gt 50times 1016

152Gd 142 548 778 215 14times1015

147Sm 200 200 400 225 106times1011

148Sm 167 200 334 19323 70times1015

149Sm 24 200 5 Stable151Sm 88 200 17 00196 00216 90152Sm + 154Sm 419 200 838 Stable107Pd 1371 8294 113710 00093 01476 65times106

90Y 456 1000 4560 09336 weak 64 hr152Eu 035 6000 21 00831 0122 134154Eu 1095 6000 6570 0221 0123 8601155Eu 016 6000 9 0047 0087 4753

Other solid 19297 4785583H 00034 294117 1000 00156 1254He 289 173 5 Stable85Kr 308 200 616 0687 0514 1072

Xe 5332 170 9050 Stable

Gases 5643 10671

Total fission 32131 1600 513937

products

Not counted 1936

Total 1000000 065 652066

httpbrcgove-mailsAugust10Commercial Value of 1 Metric ton of used fuelpdf with radioac-tivity data from httpwwwnndcbnlgovchart

Actinides can be recycled as fuel

Zirconium from fuel pin alloys and cladding and fission products can be recycled into new fuel pin claddingand alloys

Some radioactive elements produce sufficient heat to be usable as energy sources for example in radioisotopethermal generators for space applications These would not be isotopically separated 90Sr is 53 of thetotal strontium in fission products so heat production for all strontium is 049 Wgr 137Cs is 21 of thetotal caesium in fission products so heat production for all caesium is 0088 Wgr

Technetium is valuable for alloying with rhenium and has medical applications

Gases would be separated first then actinides then highly radioactive products This would reduce the costof separating and reducing the stable and less radioactive products

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 19

Appendix ndash Fuel and waste cycles

Actinides

IFRReprocessing

PrimaryProcessing

Disposaland sale

NonradioactiveLong half lifemostly 135Cs and 93Zr30 kg per GWe-yr665 kg per GWe-yearwith all cesium

ContinuousReprocessing

584 tonnes per GWe

Medium andshort half life

1 Tonneper GWe-year

99Tc 13 kg129I 177 kg

per GWe-yr

Usedfuel

Usedfuel

Sale

Nonradioactive

20 tonnes per GWe-yr

Enrichment

Sale

Disposaland sale

Enrichment LWR andLWR reprocessing

eventually phased out

LWRLWR

Reprocessing

Depleted uraniumstorage

Plutonium

8-10 tonnesper GWestartup

IFR

Enriched uranium

Fis

sion

pro

duct

s1

Ton

ne p

er G

We-

yr

MinedUranium

Acceleratortransmutation

Unused fuel and fissionproducts for transmutation

1 tonneper GWe-yr

Page 20 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

Appendix ndash Partitioning and Transmutation

Medium- and long-lived fission products could in principle be destroyed by transmuting them to isotopesthat are stable or have short half lives which decay to stable isotopes

The following tablea shows that 99Tc 129I 93Zr 107Pd and 135Cs can be transmuted much faster thantheir natural decay (ie T Jtrans ltlt T J12) The radiotoxicity of 107Pd and 135Cs is so small it is not worth

the bother to transmute them 93Zr can be recycled into fuel pin cladding or fuel alloying If 99Tc and129I were destroyed there could be very few remaining objections to nuclear power For 90Sr and 137CsT Jtrans gtgt T J12 so transmuting them is not interesting They are biologically active but can simply be

stored for about six half lives (180 years) after which the remaining amounts (069 and 11 kgGWe-yr) canbe discarded or sold If they are initially deposited in ldquodeep geologicalrdquo storage the containment durationrequirement for the repositories is significantly shorter by a factor of 1500 than for used LWR fuel For 79Seand 126Sn T Jtrans ltlt T J12 but T Jtrans is not sufficiently small to be interesting Although the radiotoxicity

per gram of 126Sn and 79Se is large they are produced in such small amounts that their total radiotoxicityper GWe-yr is comparable to that of the others

Isotope J decay Radiotoxicity σJ(nγ) (barns) T Jtrans (years) Mass per Transmuted

mode and T J12 Svg SvGWe-yr Thermal Fast Thermal Fast GWe-yr decay mode

90Sr289yminusrarr 90Y 1411k 1664M 014 001 1600 2200 1179 kg 91Sr

963hminusrarr 91Y137Cs

3008yminusrarr 137Ba 4187k 1152M 002 001 11000 2200 2752 kg 138Cs3341mminusrarr 138Ba

99Tc211kyminusrarr 99Ru 04 8708 43 02 51 110 2177 kg 100Tc

1546sminusrarr 100Ru126Sn

230kyminusrarr 126Sb 4936 4019 005 0005 4400 4400 0814 kg 127Sn21hminusrarr 127Sb

79Se295kyminusrarr 79Br 7478 1271 01 003 2200 7300 0170 kg 80Se is stable

93Zr153myminusrarr 93Nb 0102 2097 028 003 790 730 2056 kg 94Zr is stable

135Cs23myminusrarr 135Ba 0085 1009 13 007 170 310 1187 kg 136Cs

1304dminusrarr 136Ba107Pd

65myminusrarr 107Ag 00007 8309 03 05 730 44 6922 kg 108Pd is stable129I

157myminusrarr 129Xe 0718 4921 43 014 51 160 8853 kg 130I1236hminusrarr 130Xe

T Jtrans is the transmutation half-time for isotope J

Amounts and radioactivity from ORIGEN 22 Radiotoxicity dose factors from ICRP publication 119

This graph from the Swedish Radiation Safety Authorityb[29]

0001

001

01

1

10

100Radiotoxic inventory [Svg]

102 103 104 105 106101

TRU

FP

Uranium in nature

t[y]

shows that most of the radiotoxicity of used nuclear fuel arisesfrom the transuranics which IFR would consume and thatthe radiotoxicity of fission products is below the radiotoxic-ity of uranium ore within 200-300 years Transmuting 99Tcand 129I would reduce the long-term tail of the fission productradiotoxicity from 300 years onward by 60 The ordinateis radiotoxicity per gram of the original fission products notthe remaining fission products at the time specified by the ab-scissa Fission products are stored together stable ones arenot continuously separated from radioactive ones

aData from httpusersictpit˜pub_offlectureslns005Number_2Slessarev_1pdfbhttpwwwstralsakerhetsmyndighetenseGlobalPublikationerTidskriftNucleus2007Nucleus-4-2007pdf

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 21

Appendix ndash Worldwide limitations of alternative energy sources

Details in httpwwwphysicsucsdedu~tmurphyphys239shu_energypdf by Dr Frank Shu

Solar photovoltaic

Solar photovoltaic could in principle supply 15 TWe enough to power the Earthrsquos entire current energyeconomy using about 02 of the land area of the Earth below 60 latitude

Wind

Land-based wind cannot supply more than about 18 TWe or about 12 of the current energy economy

Ocean currents

The Kuroshio current which flows northward in the western Pacific past Taiwan and Japan has a powerof about 100 GW Assuming 50 efficiency of extraction allows about 50 GWe to be extracted The gulfstream flows twice as fast producing eight times as much power allowing about 400 GWe to be extractedExtracting significant power from ocean currents anywhere in the world would have profound effects onclimate

Coastal ocean waves

Assuming 50 efficiency of energy extraction ocean waves impinging on all the shorelines of the Earth couldprovide about 024 TWe or about 16 of the current energy economy

Geothermal

Geothermal sources cannot provide more than about 04 TWe or about 27 of the current energy economy

Tides

Energy extractable from tidal sources amounts to about 3 GWe worldwide or about 002 of the currentenergy economy It is only economically feasible in bays such as the Bay of Fundy which concentrate tidesto heights of as much as 5 meters Damming such bays has effects on the resonant frequency of nearby baysand estuaries profoundly altering currents and tides in nearby areas

Hydroelectric

The Earthrsquos land area is 148times 1012 m2 Average rainfall is 12 meters per year Water density is 103 kgm3

Total rainfall is thus about 18times 1017 kg Dropping 100 meters releases 18times 1017 kgtimes 98 ms2 times 100 m =

176times 1020 joule Spread out over a year 315times 107 s gives 56 TW Assuming 90 efficiency yields 5 TWeThe total available is less perhaps 35 TWe if polar regions are excluded Hydroelectric installations observeabout 30 capacity factor yielding total worldwide availability of about 1 TWe-yryr or about 67 of thecurrent energy economy

Total

Excluding solar photovoltaic and ocean currents alternative electricity sources could yield about 3443 TWeworldwide or about 23 of the current energy economy

Page 22 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

would be less expensive to build and operate than current technology because they are simpler standardizeddesigns instead of complicated one-off designs [3] The system is further substantially simplified because thecoolant operates at atmospheric pressure instead of 160 atmospheres and it absorbs essentially all neutronsthat escape the core so special alloys and over-designing are not needed to compensate for containmentvessel embrittlement caused by neutron damage and there are much fewer radioactive structural neutronactivation products

When external costs are included nuclear costs are estimated [16] to be about one tenth as much as coalCO2 emissions are explicitly excluded from costs of fossil-fuel systems Nuclear utilities have been paying01centkWh into the Federal Waste Disposal Fund since 1981 for used nuclear fuel disposal and reactor decom-missioning these costs are included as internal costs for LWR The radiological cost of mining is includedbut for IFR that would be irrelevant since there is already enough uranium above ground for several cen-turies For IFR fuel would be cheaper than free for a few hundred years because it would consume the LWRldquowasterdquo of which we are desperately eager to be rid and disposal of IFR waste would be far less expensivethan disposal of 5-used LWR fuel so IFR must have much lower than one tenth the operating cost of coal

The United States has already invested $8 Billion in the Yucca Mountain repository It is estimated to cost$436 Billion to complete [3] and current waste would require about 8-10 times more capacity than YuccaMountain would have at completion IFR would make Yucca Mountain irrelevant and is even more importantnow that the Obama administration has canceled Yucca Mountain Why is the Nevada Congressionaldelegation not insisting that the IFR demonstration project be restarted

Tony Blairrsquos government commissioned a study by Sir Nicholas Stern former vice president and chiefeconomist for the World Bank He recommended committing 1 of global GDP to reduce CO2 emissions to25-70 below current levels by mid century and that increased extreme weather costs alone could reach1 of GDP [3] For the United States that amount of todayrsquos GDP would be $290 billion per year In thenext section we estimate that producing an energy economy entirely powered by IFR could be accomplishedin fewer than 65 years Spending $290 billion per year on CO2 remediation during that interval would cost$188 trillion (in todayrsquos dollars) At $22BGWe for IFR 17 TWe would cost $374 trilliona ndash 20 asmuch ndash and would essentially eliminate CO2 emissions not reduce them by 25-70

What can be done

As admirable as they are conservation biofuels wind geothermal tides waves ocean currents and hydroalone or together cannot power any economy nor can they destroy the 59160 tonnes of ldquowasterdquo from thefirst 53 years of US LWR operations and more accumulated since 2006 Wind and solar are much moreexpensive than IFR There are no good hydro sites that have been exploited A 2017 study [17] concludedthat a 100 renewable-electricity system might not be physically feasible let alone economically viableCoal is terrible (and more expensive as well) Natural gas is more benign than coal but still produces CO2Oil produces CO2 and importing it and protecting access to overseas sources is expensive in both blood andnational treasure Solar is much more expensive than IFR and wouldnrsquot destroy waste That leaves IFR asthe only alternative that is both sufficient and economically viable

There are no serious plans for electric airplanes ships or heavy construction or farm equipment so someliquid hydrocarbon fuels will be needed for the foreseeable future Hydrogen is at present a nonstarterbecause of the storage problem Fortunately we know how to make hydrocarbon fuels from energy + water+ CO2b Using such fuels or hydrogen if the storage problem is solved (or maybe boron [3]) it is possibletherefore to convert the entire US energy economy to electricity provided mostly by IFR with hydrowind solar geothermal or biofuels where appropriate

The current US economy could be powered by about 17 TWe Each 1 GWe reactor needs 8ndash10 tonnesof startup fissile material which would at first largely be actinides from used LWR fuel and plutoniumand enriched uranium from decommissioned weapons The current US inventory of fissionable actinides is

aGEHitachi estimates $21-24 trillion ndash 11-13 of $188 trillionbThe Fischer-Tropsch process

Page 12 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

about 900 tonnes plus about 225 tonnes of weapons-grade 235Ua or enough to start up only about 110-140GWe of capacity using IFR With breeding that IFR fleet could have a sustained growth rate of 5 per yearor maybe more After startup the deployment rate would gradually accelerate from 5ndash7 per year helpedalong by actinides from still-operating LWRs and reach the desired 17 TWe goal within about 40ndash50 yearsor sooner to the extent renewable sources are appropriate or if uranium enrichment is continued

A single complete and permanent solution to all energy pollution nuclear waste and CO2 emission problemsis within our grasp All obstacles to that solution are political abetted and perpetuated by ignoranceintentional falsehoods irrational hysteria and opportunistic demagoguery not scientific technological orengineering problems Competition for energy resources is frequently blamed for wars IFR would eliminatethat excuse

Fast breeder reactors with fuel recycling will be developed There is no credible alternative There is an 800MWe reactor in service in Russiab and a 1200 MWe reactor is under development China has contractedto buy a BN-800 reactor from Russia South Korea has announced a 400 GWe fast-neutron reactor will beavailable for sale in 2020 India is building a prototype fast-neutron reactor to exploit their vast reservesof thorium China and Japan are making progress on their own designs American experts are retiring ordying far faster then younger ones are being prepared The United States will soon be a third-world countryin energy technology

Should the United States spend $188 trillion on CO2 reduction and mitigation $1075 trillion on coal sootdamage $68ndash102 trillion on solar cells $25 trillion on wind turbines $475 trillion on grid upgrades ndash about$130minus170 trillion altogether (and none of those would destroy one gram of nuclear waste) and suffer 2million unnecessary deaths due to coal emissions or spend $24 trillion on IFR (and render all nuclear wasteharmless)

For me the answer is obvious There is no time to waste We really ought to get started

Acknowledgment

This work benefited substantially from constructive criticism by the late Dr George S Stanford

Further reading

[1] Charles E Till and Yoon Il Chang Plentiful energy (2011) ISBN 978-1466384606

[2] William H Hannum Gerald E Marsh and George S Stanford Smarter use of nuclear waste ScientificAmerican (December 2005)httpswwwscientificamericancomarticlesmarter-use-of-nuclear-waste

[3] Tom Blees Prescription For The Planet The painless remedy for our energy and environmental crises(2008) ISBN 1-4196-5582-5 Impressive technical content plus off-putting gratuitous political insultsand nutty ideas about UN control of world energy

[4] D C Wade and Y I Chang The Integral Fast Reactor Physics of operation and safety NuclearScience and Engineering 100 4 (December 1988) 507ndash524

[5] Matthew D Eisaman Keshav Parajuly Alexander Tuganov Craig Eldershaw Noring Chang andKarl A Littau CO2 extraction from seawater using bipolar membrane electrodialysis Energy amp En-vironmental Science 5 6 (May 2012)

[6] National Renewable Energy Laboratory Land-use requirements of modern wind power plants in theUnited States httpwwwnrelgovdocsfy09osti45834pdf (2009)

a141 of LWR waste (httpwwwwhatisnuclearcomarticleswastehtmlcomposition) plus military inventory of 45tonnes 239Pu and 225 tonnes 235U (httpdsp-psdpwgscgccaCollection-RLoPBdPBPbp461-ehtm)

bhttpsenwikipediaorgwikiBN-800_reactor

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 13

[7] David Baurac Passively safe reactors rely on nature to keep them coolhttpwwwneanlgovAbouthnlogos-winter02-psrshtml (Winter 2002)

[8] United Nations Scientific Committee for the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) Scientific AnnexD Health effects due to radiation from the Chernobyl accident in Sources and Effects of IonizingRadiation 2008 Report to the General Assembly Volume II ISBN-13 978-92-1-142280-1 (2011)

[9] United Nations Scientific Committee for the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) Chapter IIIScientific Findings Part A Levels and effects of radiation exposure due to the nuclear accident afterthe great east-Japan earthquake and tsunami in Sources and Effects of Ionizing Radiation 2013 Reportto the General Assembly Volume I ISBN 978-92-1-142291-7 e-ISBN 978-92-1-056501-1 (2014)

[10] D L Goldman Some Implications of Using IFR High-Transuranic Plutonium in a Prolifer-ant Nuclear Weapon Program Technical Report CONDU-94-0199 Lawrence Livermore NationalLaboratory (March 1994)

[11] P E Donald E Lutz PGampE solar plants in the desert Truth about energy (2007)

[12] Nuclear Energy Agency Projected costs of generating electricityhttpwwwieaorgtextbasenppdffree2005ElecCostPDF (2005)

[13] Nuclear Energy Agency Projected costs of generating electricityhttpwwwieaorgTextbasenpsumElecCost2010SUMpdf (2010)

[14] Mark Fischetti The human cost of energy Scientific American (September 2011)

[15] Uranium Information Center (UIC) The Economics of Nuclear Power Technical report AustralianUranium Association Melbourne (March 2008)

[16] European Commission Research team of the ExternE project serieshttpwwwexterneinfoteamhtml (2007)

[17] B W Heard B W Brook T M L Wigley and C J A Bradshaw Burden of proof A comprehensivereview of the feasibility of 100 renewable-electricity systems Renewable and Sustainable EnergyReviews 76 (2017) 1122ndash1133

[18] William H Hannum The technology of the integral fast reactor and its associated fuel cycle Progressin Nuclear Energy 31 1ndash2 (1997)

[19] George S Stanford Integral fast reactors Source of safe abundant non-polluting powerhttpwwwnationalcenterorgNPA378html

[20] Gerald E Marsh and George S Stanford Bombs reprocessing and reactor grade plutonium Forumon Physics amp Society of the American Physical Society Newsletter 35 2 (April 2006)httphttpwwwthesciencecouncilcomindexphpgeorge-stanford

[21] Charles Till Plentiful energy and the IFR story The Republic News and Issues Magazine (June-September 2005) httpwwwsustainablenuclearorgPADspad0509tillhtml

[22] The Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP) httpwwwgnepenergygov

[23] Vic Reis Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP) in American Nuclear Society meetingReno NV American Nuclear Society (5 June 2006)httpwwwsustainablenuclearorgPADspad0606reispdf

[24] Doug Lightfoot Wallace Manheimer Dan Meneley Duane Pendergast and George S Stanford NuclearFission Fuel Is Inexhaustible in Climate Change Technology Conference (10ndash12 May 2006)Ottawa Ontario Canada

Page 14 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

[25] George S Stanford LWR Recycle Necessity or Impediment in ldquoGlobal 2003rdquo ANS WinterMeeting New Orleans American Nuclear Society (16ndash20 November 2003)httpwwwnationalcenterorgLWRStanfordpdf

[26] Senators Richard Lugar and Even Bayh A nuclear fuel bank advocated Chicago Tribune (22 October2006)

[27] Gerald E Marsh and George S Stanford Yucca Mountain The Right DecisionhttpwwwnationalcenterorgNPA415html (June 2002)

[28] Steve Kirsch httpskirschcompoliticsglobalwarmingifrhtm Summary blog

[29] Janne Wallenius Ateranvandning av langlivat avfall och sluten branslecykel mojlig i nya reaktortyper(Reuse of long-lived waste and a closed fuel cycle possible in new reactor types) Nucleus (April 2007)15ndash19

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 15

Appendix ndash Fission product yields from light-water reactors

See httpenwikipediaorgwikiFission_product_yield Sorted by half life

Number Isotope decay path Mass per

fractiondagger and half life GWe-year Comment

28336 131I802dminusrarr 131Xe 3150 kg Reduced by 195times10minus14 per year ndash 06 ng after one year

554478 Various lt 1y 5411 kglowast Decay to stable products

03912 106Ru3736dminusrarr 106Rh 3519 kg

asymp 035 134Cs2065yminusrarr 134Ba 3980 kg Created in the reactor from 133Cs by neutron capture

22713 147Pm262yminusrarr 147Sm 2833 kg

00297 125Sb276yminusrarr 125Te 315 g

lt00330 155Eu476yminusrarr 155Gd 434 g Mostly destroyed by neutron capture in the reactor

02717 85Kr1078yminusrarr 85Rb 1960 kg Currently released to the atmosphere

lt00003 113mCd141yminusrarr 113mIn 288 g Mostly destroyed by neutron capture in the reactor

57518 90Sr289yminusrarr 90Y 4393 kg Principal medium-term radiation and heat source319hminusrarr 90Zr

60899 137Cs3008yminusrarr 137Ba 7080 kg Principal medium-term radiation and heat source

lt04203 151Sm90yminusrarr 151Eu 5385 kg Mostly destroyed by neutron capture in the reactor

1e18yminusrarr 147Pm 151Eu is essentially stable262yminusrarr 147Sm1e11yminusrarr 143Nd

60507 99Tc211kyminusrarr 99Ru 5083 kg Dominant radiation source among fission products in the

range of 104 rarr 106 years candidate for transmutation

to 100Tc1546sminusrarr 100Ru

00236 126Sn230kyminusrarr 126Sb 252 g1235dminusrarr 126Te

00508 79Se295kyminusrarr 79Br 341 g

62856 93Zr153myminusrarr 93Nb 4960 kg

lt63333 135Cs23myminusrarr 135Ba 7255 kg

01629 107Pd65myminusrarr 107Ag 1479 kg

06576 129I157myminusrarr 129Xe 7198 kg Candidate for transmutation to 130I

1236hminusrarr 130Xe

asymp 644 133Cs stable 7268 kg A few percent converted by neutron capture to 134Cs

lt10888 149Sm stable 1377 kg

lt00065 157Gd stable 8659 gdaggerThe number fraction is the fraction of the atoms of fission products that are the specified isotope notthe mass fraction The mass is computed by multiplying the number fraction by the atomic mass andnormalizing the total to one tonne per GWe-yearlowastAssumes average mass number of 115

Thermal neutron transmutation of 90Sr 137Cs 126Sn 79Se 93Zr 135Cs and 107Pd is not practical due tolow neutron absorption cross section at the neutron temperature in LWRs

Page 16 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

The amount of an isotope at a particular time can be calculated by solving the differential equation

dN(t)

dt= k minus ln 2

τN(t)

where N(t) is the amount at time t in years k is the production rate per year and τ is the half-life in yearsThe solution (assuming N(0) = 0) is

N(t) =τk

ln 2

(1minus 2minustτ

)

From this when t gtgt τ the amount of each radioactive fission product is exponentially asymptotic toa constant approximately τk ln 2 decay compensates for production The amount of these materials isproportional to the power capacity not the total amount of energy produced If stable decay products arecontinuously removed the size of the repository is roughly constant

The following table shows asymptotic fractions and asymptotic masses per GWe (not GWe-year) of shortand medium half-life fission products The fraction is measured in terms of the annual number of fissionproduct atoms which is twice the number of actinide atoms consumed

Asymptotic number fraction and mass per GWe

Isotope Fraction Mass kg Isotope Fraction Mass kg

137Cs3008yminusrarr 137Ba 2643 3072lowast 90Sr

289yminusrarr 90Y2671dminusrarr 90Zr 2398 1831

Various τ lt 1y 7999 lt7806dagger 147Pm262yminusrarr 147Sm 85852 1071

85Kr1078yminusrarr 85Rb 4226 3048Dagger 134Cs

2065yminusrarr 134Ba 1043 1185lowast

106Ru3736dminusrarr 106Rh 05773 5192 155Eu

476yminusrarr 155Gd 02266 2981125Sb

276yminusrarr 125Te 01183 1254 131I802dminusrarr 131Xe 00898 0998

lowastAssumes isotope separation of 133Cs 134Cs 135Cs and 137Cs Total caesium

accumulates at 220 kgGWe-yrdaggerThe unclassified components are assumed to have an average mass number of

115 and to have a one year half life Since they are a mixture of products with

half lives under one year the true asymptotic fraction and mass are lessDagger 85Kr is currently vented to the atmosphere

The total mass of these products exponentially approaches an asymptote of less than 5844 kg per GWeor 9934 tonnes for a 17 TWe economy If their decay products are continuously removed storage isnot a problem If not reprocessed they are diluted by their decay products and therefore their specificactivity declines sufficiently that they are not radioactively dangerous after 200ndash300 years but the volumeis proportional to kt not k In 200 years of a 17 TWe economy the amount is less than 250000 tonnes lessthan 130000 cubic yards or less than 44 feet deep on a football field Separating the streams according tohalf life reduces the 200-year stream by 85

For long-lived isotopes ie t ltlt τ on a human time scale decay does not compensate for productionApproximating 2minustτ = exp(minust ln 2τ) asymp 1minus t ln 2τ the solution is N(t) asymp kt as expected The amount ofthese fission products is in proportion to the total amount of energy produced not the power capacity

Long-lived isotopes accumulate at the rate of about 182 kg per GWe-year or about 309 tonnes per year fora 17 TWe economy 99Tc and 129I can be destroyed by transmutation but the others amounting to about124 kg per GWe-year are impractical to destroy by transmutation If other isotopes of caesium (about 147kg per GWe-year) are not separated from 135Cs the total long-term disposal stream increases to 271 kg perGWe-year (but its specific activity decreases) If stored for about 30 years before disposal about 35 kg perGWe-year of 137Cs will decay leaving about 235 kg per GWe-year or about 400 tonnes per year for a 17TWe economy if the resulting stable 137Ba were removed Surely disposal of 400 tonnes per year of theseisotopes would not be a problem

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 17

Value of one tonne of used LWR fuelseparated and reduced to metal

Value Radioactivity

Value $tonne (MevBq-s) Half life Heat

Substance Mass (gr) $gr of waste α β γ (years) Wgr238U 944100 0143 135006 42 0496 447times109

236U 3971 0143 568 45 0494 234times107

235U 7974 0143 1140 44 0657 704234U 225 0143 32 48 00532 245times105

237Np 503 0143 72 47 00294 214times106

242Pu 454 0143 65 48 00449 376times105

241Pu 111 0143 16 49 01485 1435240Pu 2302 0143 329 52 05424 656times103

239Pu 5025 0143 719 52 00516 241times104

238Pu 95 0143 14 55 00435 8774 156241Am 1084 0143 155 55 00595 432243Am 85 0143 12 53 00747 737244Cm 4 0143 1 58 00428 1811 244

Actinides 965933 0143 13812996Zr 798 305 2434 Stable94Zr 741 305 2260 Stable93Zr 718 305 2190 0010 00305 161times106

92Zr 639 305 1948 Stable91Zr 590 305 1799 Stable90Zr 391 305 1192 Stable

Fuel cladding 3877 305 1182299Tc for alloys 771 1000 7710 00846 weak 2111times105

90Sr 391 200 782 01958 29 09388Sr 350 200 700 Stable137Cs 377 200 754 0187 0479 3017 042135Cs 300 200 600 00757 0662 23times106

133Cs 1125 200 2250 Stable

Heat sources 2543 200 5086

Br 22 100 22 Stable

Mo 3345 0257 860 Stable

Ru 2177 4578 99663 Stable

Ag 76 200 152 Stable

Cd 108 200 216 Stable

Ba 2311 0560 1295 Stable

Tb 26 3000 78 Stable

Dy 14 500 7 Stable

Rh 467 50000 233500 Stable87Rb 365 1178 4300 00817 481times1010

123Te 485 139 675 gt 92times 1016

138La 1215 180 2187 00329 144 102times1011

144Nd 3488 220 7673 190 229times1015

115In 26 1000 26 01532 441times1014

(cont)

Page 18 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

Value of one tonne of used LWR fuelseparated and reduced to metal (cont)

Value Radioactivity

Value $tonne (MevBq-s) Half life Heat

Substance Mass (gr) $gr of waste α β γ (years) Wgr142Ce 2355 028 662 15 gt 50times 1016

152Gd 142 548 778 215 14times1015

147Sm 200 200 400 225 106times1011

148Sm 167 200 334 19323 70times1015

149Sm 24 200 5 Stable151Sm 88 200 17 00196 00216 90152Sm + 154Sm 419 200 838 Stable107Pd 1371 8294 113710 00093 01476 65times106

90Y 456 1000 4560 09336 weak 64 hr152Eu 035 6000 21 00831 0122 134154Eu 1095 6000 6570 0221 0123 8601155Eu 016 6000 9 0047 0087 4753

Other solid 19297 4785583H 00034 294117 1000 00156 1254He 289 173 5 Stable85Kr 308 200 616 0687 0514 1072

Xe 5332 170 9050 Stable

Gases 5643 10671

Total fission 32131 1600 513937

products

Not counted 1936

Total 1000000 065 652066

httpbrcgove-mailsAugust10Commercial Value of 1 Metric ton of used fuelpdf with radioac-tivity data from httpwwwnndcbnlgovchart

Actinides can be recycled as fuel

Zirconium from fuel pin alloys and cladding and fission products can be recycled into new fuel pin claddingand alloys

Some radioactive elements produce sufficient heat to be usable as energy sources for example in radioisotopethermal generators for space applications These would not be isotopically separated 90Sr is 53 of thetotal strontium in fission products so heat production for all strontium is 049 Wgr 137Cs is 21 of thetotal caesium in fission products so heat production for all caesium is 0088 Wgr

Technetium is valuable for alloying with rhenium and has medical applications

Gases would be separated first then actinides then highly radioactive products This would reduce the costof separating and reducing the stable and less radioactive products

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 19

Appendix ndash Fuel and waste cycles

Actinides

IFRReprocessing

PrimaryProcessing

Disposaland sale

NonradioactiveLong half lifemostly 135Cs and 93Zr30 kg per GWe-yr665 kg per GWe-yearwith all cesium

ContinuousReprocessing

584 tonnes per GWe

Medium andshort half life

1 Tonneper GWe-year

99Tc 13 kg129I 177 kg

per GWe-yr

Usedfuel

Usedfuel

Sale

Nonradioactive

20 tonnes per GWe-yr

Enrichment

Sale

Disposaland sale

Enrichment LWR andLWR reprocessing

eventually phased out

LWRLWR

Reprocessing

Depleted uraniumstorage

Plutonium

8-10 tonnesper GWestartup

IFR

Enriched uranium

Fis

sion

pro

duct

s1

Ton

ne p

er G

We-

yr

MinedUranium

Acceleratortransmutation

Unused fuel and fissionproducts for transmutation

1 tonneper GWe-yr

Page 20 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

Appendix ndash Partitioning and Transmutation

Medium- and long-lived fission products could in principle be destroyed by transmuting them to isotopesthat are stable or have short half lives which decay to stable isotopes

The following tablea shows that 99Tc 129I 93Zr 107Pd and 135Cs can be transmuted much faster thantheir natural decay (ie T Jtrans ltlt T J12) The radiotoxicity of 107Pd and 135Cs is so small it is not worth

the bother to transmute them 93Zr can be recycled into fuel pin cladding or fuel alloying If 99Tc and129I were destroyed there could be very few remaining objections to nuclear power For 90Sr and 137CsT Jtrans gtgt T J12 so transmuting them is not interesting They are biologically active but can simply be

stored for about six half lives (180 years) after which the remaining amounts (069 and 11 kgGWe-yr) canbe discarded or sold If they are initially deposited in ldquodeep geologicalrdquo storage the containment durationrequirement for the repositories is significantly shorter by a factor of 1500 than for used LWR fuel For 79Seand 126Sn T Jtrans ltlt T J12 but T Jtrans is not sufficiently small to be interesting Although the radiotoxicity

per gram of 126Sn and 79Se is large they are produced in such small amounts that their total radiotoxicityper GWe-yr is comparable to that of the others

Isotope J decay Radiotoxicity σJ(nγ) (barns) T Jtrans (years) Mass per Transmuted

mode and T J12 Svg SvGWe-yr Thermal Fast Thermal Fast GWe-yr decay mode

90Sr289yminusrarr 90Y 1411k 1664M 014 001 1600 2200 1179 kg 91Sr

963hminusrarr 91Y137Cs

3008yminusrarr 137Ba 4187k 1152M 002 001 11000 2200 2752 kg 138Cs3341mminusrarr 138Ba

99Tc211kyminusrarr 99Ru 04 8708 43 02 51 110 2177 kg 100Tc

1546sminusrarr 100Ru126Sn

230kyminusrarr 126Sb 4936 4019 005 0005 4400 4400 0814 kg 127Sn21hminusrarr 127Sb

79Se295kyminusrarr 79Br 7478 1271 01 003 2200 7300 0170 kg 80Se is stable

93Zr153myminusrarr 93Nb 0102 2097 028 003 790 730 2056 kg 94Zr is stable

135Cs23myminusrarr 135Ba 0085 1009 13 007 170 310 1187 kg 136Cs

1304dminusrarr 136Ba107Pd

65myminusrarr 107Ag 00007 8309 03 05 730 44 6922 kg 108Pd is stable129I

157myminusrarr 129Xe 0718 4921 43 014 51 160 8853 kg 130I1236hminusrarr 130Xe

T Jtrans is the transmutation half-time for isotope J

Amounts and radioactivity from ORIGEN 22 Radiotoxicity dose factors from ICRP publication 119

This graph from the Swedish Radiation Safety Authorityb[29]

0001

001

01

1

10

100Radiotoxic inventory [Svg]

102 103 104 105 106101

TRU

FP

Uranium in nature

t[y]

shows that most of the radiotoxicity of used nuclear fuel arisesfrom the transuranics which IFR would consume and thatthe radiotoxicity of fission products is below the radiotoxic-ity of uranium ore within 200-300 years Transmuting 99Tcand 129I would reduce the long-term tail of the fission productradiotoxicity from 300 years onward by 60 The ordinateis radiotoxicity per gram of the original fission products notthe remaining fission products at the time specified by the ab-scissa Fission products are stored together stable ones arenot continuously separated from radioactive ones

aData from httpusersictpit˜pub_offlectureslns005Number_2Slessarev_1pdfbhttpwwwstralsakerhetsmyndighetenseGlobalPublikationerTidskriftNucleus2007Nucleus-4-2007pdf

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 21

Appendix ndash Worldwide limitations of alternative energy sources

Details in httpwwwphysicsucsdedu~tmurphyphys239shu_energypdf by Dr Frank Shu

Solar photovoltaic

Solar photovoltaic could in principle supply 15 TWe enough to power the Earthrsquos entire current energyeconomy using about 02 of the land area of the Earth below 60 latitude

Wind

Land-based wind cannot supply more than about 18 TWe or about 12 of the current energy economy

Ocean currents

The Kuroshio current which flows northward in the western Pacific past Taiwan and Japan has a powerof about 100 GW Assuming 50 efficiency of extraction allows about 50 GWe to be extracted The gulfstream flows twice as fast producing eight times as much power allowing about 400 GWe to be extractedExtracting significant power from ocean currents anywhere in the world would have profound effects onclimate

Coastal ocean waves

Assuming 50 efficiency of energy extraction ocean waves impinging on all the shorelines of the Earth couldprovide about 024 TWe or about 16 of the current energy economy

Geothermal

Geothermal sources cannot provide more than about 04 TWe or about 27 of the current energy economy

Tides

Energy extractable from tidal sources amounts to about 3 GWe worldwide or about 002 of the currentenergy economy It is only economically feasible in bays such as the Bay of Fundy which concentrate tidesto heights of as much as 5 meters Damming such bays has effects on the resonant frequency of nearby baysand estuaries profoundly altering currents and tides in nearby areas

Hydroelectric

The Earthrsquos land area is 148times 1012 m2 Average rainfall is 12 meters per year Water density is 103 kgm3

Total rainfall is thus about 18times 1017 kg Dropping 100 meters releases 18times 1017 kgtimes 98 ms2 times 100 m =

176times 1020 joule Spread out over a year 315times 107 s gives 56 TW Assuming 90 efficiency yields 5 TWeThe total available is less perhaps 35 TWe if polar regions are excluded Hydroelectric installations observeabout 30 capacity factor yielding total worldwide availability of about 1 TWe-yryr or about 67 of thecurrent energy economy

Total

Excluding solar photovoltaic and ocean currents alternative electricity sources could yield about 3443 TWeworldwide or about 23 of the current energy economy

Page 22 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

about 900 tonnes plus about 225 tonnes of weapons-grade 235Ua or enough to start up only about 110-140GWe of capacity using IFR With breeding that IFR fleet could have a sustained growth rate of 5 per yearor maybe more After startup the deployment rate would gradually accelerate from 5ndash7 per year helpedalong by actinides from still-operating LWRs and reach the desired 17 TWe goal within about 40ndash50 yearsor sooner to the extent renewable sources are appropriate or if uranium enrichment is continued

A single complete and permanent solution to all energy pollution nuclear waste and CO2 emission problemsis within our grasp All obstacles to that solution are political abetted and perpetuated by ignoranceintentional falsehoods irrational hysteria and opportunistic demagoguery not scientific technological orengineering problems Competition for energy resources is frequently blamed for wars IFR would eliminatethat excuse

Fast breeder reactors with fuel recycling will be developed There is no credible alternative There is an 800MWe reactor in service in Russiab and a 1200 MWe reactor is under development China has contractedto buy a BN-800 reactor from Russia South Korea has announced a 400 GWe fast-neutron reactor will beavailable for sale in 2020 India is building a prototype fast-neutron reactor to exploit their vast reservesof thorium China and Japan are making progress on their own designs American experts are retiring ordying far faster then younger ones are being prepared The United States will soon be a third-world countryin energy technology

Should the United States spend $188 trillion on CO2 reduction and mitigation $1075 trillion on coal sootdamage $68ndash102 trillion on solar cells $25 trillion on wind turbines $475 trillion on grid upgrades ndash about$130minus170 trillion altogether (and none of those would destroy one gram of nuclear waste) and suffer 2million unnecessary deaths due to coal emissions or spend $24 trillion on IFR (and render all nuclear wasteharmless)

For me the answer is obvious There is no time to waste We really ought to get started

Acknowledgment

This work benefited substantially from constructive criticism by the late Dr George S Stanford

Further reading

[1] Charles E Till and Yoon Il Chang Plentiful energy (2011) ISBN 978-1466384606

[2] William H Hannum Gerald E Marsh and George S Stanford Smarter use of nuclear waste ScientificAmerican (December 2005)httpswwwscientificamericancomarticlesmarter-use-of-nuclear-waste

[3] Tom Blees Prescription For The Planet The painless remedy for our energy and environmental crises(2008) ISBN 1-4196-5582-5 Impressive technical content plus off-putting gratuitous political insultsand nutty ideas about UN control of world energy

[4] D C Wade and Y I Chang The Integral Fast Reactor Physics of operation and safety NuclearScience and Engineering 100 4 (December 1988) 507ndash524

[5] Matthew D Eisaman Keshav Parajuly Alexander Tuganov Craig Eldershaw Noring Chang andKarl A Littau CO2 extraction from seawater using bipolar membrane electrodialysis Energy amp En-vironmental Science 5 6 (May 2012)

[6] National Renewable Energy Laboratory Land-use requirements of modern wind power plants in theUnited States httpwwwnrelgovdocsfy09osti45834pdf (2009)

a141 of LWR waste (httpwwwwhatisnuclearcomarticleswastehtmlcomposition) plus military inventory of 45tonnes 239Pu and 225 tonnes 235U (httpdsp-psdpwgscgccaCollection-RLoPBdPBPbp461-ehtm)

bhttpsenwikipediaorgwikiBN-800_reactor

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 13

[7] David Baurac Passively safe reactors rely on nature to keep them coolhttpwwwneanlgovAbouthnlogos-winter02-psrshtml (Winter 2002)

[8] United Nations Scientific Committee for the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) Scientific AnnexD Health effects due to radiation from the Chernobyl accident in Sources and Effects of IonizingRadiation 2008 Report to the General Assembly Volume II ISBN-13 978-92-1-142280-1 (2011)

[9] United Nations Scientific Committee for the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) Chapter IIIScientific Findings Part A Levels and effects of radiation exposure due to the nuclear accident afterthe great east-Japan earthquake and tsunami in Sources and Effects of Ionizing Radiation 2013 Reportto the General Assembly Volume I ISBN 978-92-1-142291-7 e-ISBN 978-92-1-056501-1 (2014)

[10] D L Goldman Some Implications of Using IFR High-Transuranic Plutonium in a Prolifer-ant Nuclear Weapon Program Technical Report CONDU-94-0199 Lawrence Livermore NationalLaboratory (March 1994)

[11] P E Donald E Lutz PGampE solar plants in the desert Truth about energy (2007)

[12] Nuclear Energy Agency Projected costs of generating electricityhttpwwwieaorgtextbasenppdffree2005ElecCostPDF (2005)

[13] Nuclear Energy Agency Projected costs of generating electricityhttpwwwieaorgTextbasenpsumElecCost2010SUMpdf (2010)

[14] Mark Fischetti The human cost of energy Scientific American (September 2011)

[15] Uranium Information Center (UIC) The Economics of Nuclear Power Technical report AustralianUranium Association Melbourne (March 2008)

[16] European Commission Research team of the ExternE project serieshttpwwwexterneinfoteamhtml (2007)

[17] B W Heard B W Brook T M L Wigley and C J A Bradshaw Burden of proof A comprehensivereview of the feasibility of 100 renewable-electricity systems Renewable and Sustainable EnergyReviews 76 (2017) 1122ndash1133

[18] William H Hannum The technology of the integral fast reactor and its associated fuel cycle Progressin Nuclear Energy 31 1ndash2 (1997)

[19] George S Stanford Integral fast reactors Source of safe abundant non-polluting powerhttpwwwnationalcenterorgNPA378html

[20] Gerald E Marsh and George S Stanford Bombs reprocessing and reactor grade plutonium Forumon Physics amp Society of the American Physical Society Newsletter 35 2 (April 2006)httphttpwwwthesciencecouncilcomindexphpgeorge-stanford

[21] Charles Till Plentiful energy and the IFR story The Republic News and Issues Magazine (June-September 2005) httpwwwsustainablenuclearorgPADspad0509tillhtml

[22] The Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP) httpwwwgnepenergygov

[23] Vic Reis Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP) in American Nuclear Society meetingReno NV American Nuclear Society (5 June 2006)httpwwwsustainablenuclearorgPADspad0606reispdf

[24] Doug Lightfoot Wallace Manheimer Dan Meneley Duane Pendergast and George S Stanford NuclearFission Fuel Is Inexhaustible in Climate Change Technology Conference (10ndash12 May 2006)Ottawa Ontario Canada

Page 14 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

[25] George S Stanford LWR Recycle Necessity or Impediment in ldquoGlobal 2003rdquo ANS WinterMeeting New Orleans American Nuclear Society (16ndash20 November 2003)httpwwwnationalcenterorgLWRStanfordpdf

[26] Senators Richard Lugar and Even Bayh A nuclear fuel bank advocated Chicago Tribune (22 October2006)

[27] Gerald E Marsh and George S Stanford Yucca Mountain The Right DecisionhttpwwwnationalcenterorgNPA415html (June 2002)

[28] Steve Kirsch httpskirschcompoliticsglobalwarmingifrhtm Summary blog

[29] Janne Wallenius Ateranvandning av langlivat avfall och sluten branslecykel mojlig i nya reaktortyper(Reuse of long-lived waste and a closed fuel cycle possible in new reactor types) Nucleus (April 2007)15ndash19

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 15

Appendix ndash Fission product yields from light-water reactors

See httpenwikipediaorgwikiFission_product_yield Sorted by half life

Number Isotope decay path Mass per

fractiondagger and half life GWe-year Comment

28336 131I802dminusrarr 131Xe 3150 kg Reduced by 195times10minus14 per year ndash 06 ng after one year

554478 Various lt 1y 5411 kglowast Decay to stable products

03912 106Ru3736dminusrarr 106Rh 3519 kg

asymp 035 134Cs2065yminusrarr 134Ba 3980 kg Created in the reactor from 133Cs by neutron capture

22713 147Pm262yminusrarr 147Sm 2833 kg

00297 125Sb276yminusrarr 125Te 315 g

lt00330 155Eu476yminusrarr 155Gd 434 g Mostly destroyed by neutron capture in the reactor

02717 85Kr1078yminusrarr 85Rb 1960 kg Currently released to the atmosphere

lt00003 113mCd141yminusrarr 113mIn 288 g Mostly destroyed by neutron capture in the reactor

57518 90Sr289yminusrarr 90Y 4393 kg Principal medium-term radiation and heat source319hminusrarr 90Zr

60899 137Cs3008yminusrarr 137Ba 7080 kg Principal medium-term radiation and heat source

lt04203 151Sm90yminusrarr 151Eu 5385 kg Mostly destroyed by neutron capture in the reactor

1e18yminusrarr 147Pm 151Eu is essentially stable262yminusrarr 147Sm1e11yminusrarr 143Nd

60507 99Tc211kyminusrarr 99Ru 5083 kg Dominant radiation source among fission products in the

range of 104 rarr 106 years candidate for transmutation

to 100Tc1546sminusrarr 100Ru

00236 126Sn230kyminusrarr 126Sb 252 g1235dminusrarr 126Te

00508 79Se295kyminusrarr 79Br 341 g

62856 93Zr153myminusrarr 93Nb 4960 kg

lt63333 135Cs23myminusrarr 135Ba 7255 kg

01629 107Pd65myminusrarr 107Ag 1479 kg

06576 129I157myminusrarr 129Xe 7198 kg Candidate for transmutation to 130I

1236hminusrarr 130Xe

asymp 644 133Cs stable 7268 kg A few percent converted by neutron capture to 134Cs

lt10888 149Sm stable 1377 kg

lt00065 157Gd stable 8659 gdaggerThe number fraction is the fraction of the atoms of fission products that are the specified isotope notthe mass fraction The mass is computed by multiplying the number fraction by the atomic mass andnormalizing the total to one tonne per GWe-yearlowastAssumes average mass number of 115

Thermal neutron transmutation of 90Sr 137Cs 126Sn 79Se 93Zr 135Cs and 107Pd is not practical due tolow neutron absorption cross section at the neutron temperature in LWRs

Page 16 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

The amount of an isotope at a particular time can be calculated by solving the differential equation

dN(t)

dt= k minus ln 2

τN(t)

where N(t) is the amount at time t in years k is the production rate per year and τ is the half-life in yearsThe solution (assuming N(0) = 0) is

N(t) =τk

ln 2

(1minus 2minustτ

)

From this when t gtgt τ the amount of each radioactive fission product is exponentially asymptotic toa constant approximately τk ln 2 decay compensates for production The amount of these materials isproportional to the power capacity not the total amount of energy produced If stable decay products arecontinuously removed the size of the repository is roughly constant

The following table shows asymptotic fractions and asymptotic masses per GWe (not GWe-year) of shortand medium half-life fission products The fraction is measured in terms of the annual number of fissionproduct atoms which is twice the number of actinide atoms consumed

Asymptotic number fraction and mass per GWe

Isotope Fraction Mass kg Isotope Fraction Mass kg

137Cs3008yminusrarr 137Ba 2643 3072lowast 90Sr

289yminusrarr 90Y2671dminusrarr 90Zr 2398 1831

Various τ lt 1y 7999 lt7806dagger 147Pm262yminusrarr 147Sm 85852 1071

85Kr1078yminusrarr 85Rb 4226 3048Dagger 134Cs

2065yminusrarr 134Ba 1043 1185lowast

106Ru3736dminusrarr 106Rh 05773 5192 155Eu

476yminusrarr 155Gd 02266 2981125Sb

276yminusrarr 125Te 01183 1254 131I802dminusrarr 131Xe 00898 0998

lowastAssumes isotope separation of 133Cs 134Cs 135Cs and 137Cs Total caesium

accumulates at 220 kgGWe-yrdaggerThe unclassified components are assumed to have an average mass number of

115 and to have a one year half life Since they are a mixture of products with

half lives under one year the true asymptotic fraction and mass are lessDagger 85Kr is currently vented to the atmosphere

The total mass of these products exponentially approaches an asymptote of less than 5844 kg per GWeor 9934 tonnes for a 17 TWe economy If their decay products are continuously removed storage isnot a problem If not reprocessed they are diluted by their decay products and therefore their specificactivity declines sufficiently that they are not radioactively dangerous after 200ndash300 years but the volumeis proportional to kt not k In 200 years of a 17 TWe economy the amount is less than 250000 tonnes lessthan 130000 cubic yards or less than 44 feet deep on a football field Separating the streams according tohalf life reduces the 200-year stream by 85

For long-lived isotopes ie t ltlt τ on a human time scale decay does not compensate for productionApproximating 2minustτ = exp(minust ln 2τ) asymp 1minus t ln 2τ the solution is N(t) asymp kt as expected The amount ofthese fission products is in proportion to the total amount of energy produced not the power capacity

Long-lived isotopes accumulate at the rate of about 182 kg per GWe-year or about 309 tonnes per year fora 17 TWe economy 99Tc and 129I can be destroyed by transmutation but the others amounting to about124 kg per GWe-year are impractical to destroy by transmutation If other isotopes of caesium (about 147kg per GWe-year) are not separated from 135Cs the total long-term disposal stream increases to 271 kg perGWe-year (but its specific activity decreases) If stored for about 30 years before disposal about 35 kg perGWe-year of 137Cs will decay leaving about 235 kg per GWe-year or about 400 tonnes per year for a 17TWe economy if the resulting stable 137Ba were removed Surely disposal of 400 tonnes per year of theseisotopes would not be a problem

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 17

Value of one tonne of used LWR fuelseparated and reduced to metal

Value Radioactivity

Value $tonne (MevBq-s) Half life Heat

Substance Mass (gr) $gr of waste α β γ (years) Wgr238U 944100 0143 135006 42 0496 447times109

236U 3971 0143 568 45 0494 234times107

235U 7974 0143 1140 44 0657 704234U 225 0143 32 48 00532 245times105

237Np 503 0143 72 47 00294 214times106

242Pu 454 0143 65 48 00449 376times105

241Pu 111 0143 16 49 01485 1435240Pu 2302 0143 329 52 05424 656times103

239Pu 5025 0143 719 52 00516 241times104

238Pu 95 0143 14 55 00435 8774 156241Am 1084 0143 155 55 00595 432243Am 85 0143 12 53 00747 737244Cm 4 0143 1 58 00428 1811 244

Actinides 965933 0143 13812996Zr 798 305 2434 Stable94Zr 741 305 2260 Stable93Zr 718 305 2190 0010 00305 161times106

92Zr 639 305 1948 Stable91Zr 590 305 1799 Stable90Zr 391 305 1192 Stable

Fuel cladding 3877 305 1182299Tc for alloys 771 1000 7710 00846 weak 2111times105

90Sr 391 200 782 01958 29 09388Sr 350 200 700 Stable137Cs 377 200 754 0187 0479 3017 042135Cs 300 200 600 00757 0662 23times106

133Cs 1125 200 2250 Stable

Heat sources 2543 200 5086

Br 22 100 22 Stable

Mo 3345 0257 860 Stable

Ru 2177 4578 99663 Stable

Ag 76 200 152 Stable

Cd 108 200 216 Stable

Ba 2311 0560 1295 Stable

Tb 26 3000 78 Stable

Dy 14 500 7 Stable

Rh 467 50000 233500 Stable87Rb 365 1178 4300 00817 481times1010

123Te 485 139 675 gt 92times 1016

138La 1215 180 2187 00329 144 102times1011

144Nd 3488 220 7673 190 229times1015

115In 26 1000 26 01532 441times1014

(cont)

Page 18 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

Value of one tonne of used LWR fuelseparated and reduced to metal (cont)

Value Radioactivity

Value $tonne (MevBq-s) Half life Heat

Substance Mass (gr) $gr of waste α β γ (years) Wgr142Ce 2355 028 662 15 gt 50times 1016

152Gd 142 548 778 215 14times1015

147Sm 200 200 400 225 106times1011

148Sm 167 200 334 19323 70times1015

149Sm 24 200 5 Stable151Sm 88 200 17 00196 00216 90152Sm + 154Sm 419 200 838 Stable107Pd 1371 8294 113710 00093 01476 65times106

90Y 456 1000 4560 09336 weak 64 hr152Eu 035 6000 21 00831 0122 134154Eu 1095 6000 6570 0221 0123 8601155Eu 016 6000 9 0047 0087 4753

Other solid 19297 4785583H 00034 294117 1000 00156 1254He 289 173 5 Stable85Kr 308 200 616 0687 0514 1072

Xe 5332 170 9050 Stable

Gases 5643 10671

Total fission 32131 1600 513937

products

Not counted 1936

Total 1000000 065 652066

httpbrcgove-mailsAugust10Commercial Value of 1 Metric ton of used fuelpdf with radioac-tivity data from httpwwwnndcbnlgovchart

Actinides can be recycled as fuel

Zirconium from fuel pin alloys and cladding and fission products can be recycled into new fuel pin claddingand alloys

Some radioactive elements produce sufficient heat to be usable as energy sources for example in radioisotopethermal generators for space applications These would not be isotopically separated 90Sr is 53 of thetotal strontium in fission products so heat production for all strontium is 049 Wgr 137Cs is 21 of thetotal caesium in fission products so heat production for all caesium is 0088 Wgr

Technetium is valuable for alloying with rhenium and has medical applications

Gases would be separated first then actinides then highly radioactive products This would reduce the costof separating and reducing the stable and less radioactive products

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 19

Appendix ndash Fuel and waste cycles

Actinides

IFRReprocessing

PrimaryProcessing

Disposaland sale

NonradioactiveLong half lifemostly 135Cs and 93Zr30 kg per GWe-yr665 kg per GWe-yearwith all cesium

ContinuousReprocessing

584 tonnes per GWe

Medium andshort half life

1 Tonneper GWe-year

99Tc 13 kg129I 177 kg

per GWe-yr

Usedfuel

Usedfuel

Sale

Nonradioactive

20 tonnes per GWe-yr

Enrichment

Sale

Disposaland sale

Enrichment LWR andLWR reprocessing

eventually phased out

LWRLWR

Reprocessing

Depleted uraniumstorage

Plutonium

8-10 tonnesper GWestartup

IFR

Enriched uranium

Fis

sion

pro

duct

s1

Ton

ne p

er G

We-

yr

MinedUranium

Acceleratortransmutation

Unused fuel and fissionproducts for transmutation

1 tonneper GWe-yr

Page 20 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

Appendix ndash Partitioning and Transmutation

Medium- and long-lived fission products could in principle be destroyed by transmuting them to isotopesthat are stable or have short half lives which decay to stable isotopes

The following tablea shows that 99Tc 129I 93Zr 107Pd and 135Cs can be transmuted much faster thantheir natural decay (ie T Jtrans ltlt T J12) The radiotoxicity of 107Pd and 135Cs is so small it is not worth

the bother to transmute them 93Zr can be recycled into fuel pin cladding or fuel alloying If 99Tc and129I were destroyed there could be very few remaining objections to nuclear power For 90Sr and 137CsT Jtrans gtgt T J12 so transmuting them is not interesting They are biologically active but can simply be

stored for about six half lives (180 years) after which the remaining amounts (069 and 11 kgGWe-yr) canbe discarded or sold If they are initially deposited in ldquodeep geologicalrdquo storage the containment durationrequirement for the repositories is significantly shorter by a factor of 1500 than for used LWR fuel For 79Seand 126Sn T Jtrans ltlt T J12 but T Jtrans is not sufficiently small to be interesting Although the radiotoxicity

per gram of 126Sn and 79Se is large they are produced in such small amounts that their total radiotoxicityper GWe-yr is comparable to that of the others

Isotope J decay Radiotoxicity σJ(nγ) (barns) T Jtrans (years) Mass per Transmuted

mode and T J12 Svg SvGWe-yr Thermal Fast Thermal Fast GWe-yr decay mode

90Sr289yminusrarr 90Y 1411k 1664M 014 001 1600 2200 1179 kg 91Sr

963hminusrarr 91Y137Cs

3008yminusrarr 137Ba 4187k 1152M 002 001 11000 2200 2752 kg 138Cs3341mminusrarr 138Ba

99Tc211kyminusrarr 99Ru 04 8708 43 02 51 110 2177 kg 100Tc

1546sminusrarr 100Ru126Sn

230kyminusrarr 126Sb 4936 4019 005 0005 4400 4400 0814 kg 127Sn21hminusrarr 127Sb

79Se295kyminusrarr 79Br 7478 1271 01 003 2200 7300 0170 kg 80Se is stable

93Zr153myminusrarr 93Nb 0102 2097 028 003 790 730 2056 kg 94Zr is stable

135Cs23myminusrarr 135Ba 0085 1009 13 007 170 310 1187 kg 136Cs

1304dminusrarr 136Ba107Pd

65myminusrarr 107Ag 00007 8309 03 05 730 44 6922 kg 108Pd is stable129I

157myminusrarr 129Xe 0718 4921 43 014 51 160 8853 kg 130I1236hminusrarr 130Xe

T Jtrans is the transmutation half-time for isotope J

Amounts and radioactivity from ORIGEN 22 Radiotoxicity dose factors from ICRP publication 119

This graph from the Swedish Radiation Safety Authorityb[29]

0001

001

01

1

10

100Radiotoxic inventory [Svg]

102 103 104 105 106101

TRU

FP

Uranium in nature

t[y]

shows that most of the radiotoxicity of used nuclear fuel arisesfrom the transuranics which IFR would consume and thatthe radiotoxicity of fission products is below the radiotoxic-ity of uranium ore within 200-300 years Transmuting 99Tcand 129I would reduce the long-term tail of the fission productradiotoxicity from 300 years onward by 60 The ordinateis radiotoxicity per gram of the original fission products notthe remaining fission products at the time specified by the ab-scissa Fission products are stored together stable ones arenot continuously separated from radioactive ones

aData from httpusersictpit˜pub_offlectureslns005Number_2Slessarev_1pdfbhttpwwwstralsakerhetsmyndighetenseGlobalPublikationerTidskriftNucleus2007Nucleus-4-2007pdf

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 21

Appendix ndash Worldwide limitations of alternative energy sources

Details in httpwwwphysicsucsdedu~tmurphyphys239shu_energypdf by Dr Frank Shu

Solar photovoltaic

Solar photovoltaic could in principle supply 15 TWe enough to power the Earthrsquos entire current energyeconomy using about 02 of the land area of the Earth below 60 latitude

Wind

Land-based wind cannot supply more than about 18 TWe or about 12 of the current energy economy

Ocean currents

The Kuroshio current which flows northward in the western Pacific past Taiwan and Japan has a powerof about 100 GW Assuming 50 efficiency of extraction allows about 50 GWe to be extracted The gulfstream flows twice as fast producing eight times as much power allowing about 400 GWe to be extractedExtracting significant power from ocean currents anywhere in the world would have profound effects onclimate

Coastal ocean waves

Assuming 50 efficiency of energy extraction ocean waves impinging on all the shorelines of the Earth couldprovide about 024 TWe or about 16 of the current energy economy

Geothermal

Geothermal sources cannot provide more than about 04 TWe or about 27 of the current energy economy

Tides

Energy extractable from tidal sources amounts to about 3 GWe worldwide or about 002 of the currentenergy economy It is only economically feasible in bays such as the Bay of Fundy which concentrate tidesto heights of as much as 5 meters Damming such bays has effects on the resonant frequency of nearby baysand estuaries profoundly altering currents and tides in nearby areas

Hydroelectric

The Earthrsquos land area is 148times 1012 m2 Average rainfall is 12 meters per year Water density is 103 kgm3

Total rainfall is thus about 18times 1017 kg Dropping 100 meters releases 18times 1017 kgtimes 98 ms2 times 100 m =

176times 1020 joule Spread out over a year 315times 107 s gives 56 TW Assuming 90 efficiency yields 5 TWeThe total available is less perhaps 35 TWe if polar regions are excluded Hydroelectric installations observeabout 30 capacity factor yielding total worldwide availability of about 1 TWe-yryr or about 67 of thecurrent energy economy

Total

Excluding solar photovoltaic and ocean currents alternative electricity sources could yield about 3443 TWeworldwide or about 23 of the current energy economy

Page 22 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

[7] David Baurac Passively safe reactors rely on nature to keep them coolhttpwwwneanlgovAbouthnlogos-winter02-psrshtml (Winter 2002)

[8] United Nations Scientific Committee for the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) Scientific AnnexD Health effects due to radiation from the Chernobyl accident in Sources and Effects of IonizingRadiation 2008 Report to the General Assembly Volume II ISBN-13 978-92-1-142280-1 (2011)

[9] United Nations Scientific Committee for the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) Chapter IIIScientific Findings Part A Levels and effects of radiation exposure due to the nuclear accident afterthe great east-Japan earthquake and tsunami in Sources and Effects of Ionizing Radiation 2013 Reportto the General Assembly Volume I ISBN 978-92-1-142291-7 e-ISBN 978-92-1-056501-1 (2014)

[10] D L Goldman Some Implications of Using IFR High-Transuranic Plutonium in a Prolifer-ant Nuclear Weapon Program Technical Report CONDU-94-0199 Lawrence Livermore NationalLaboratory (March 1994)

[11] P E Donald E Lutz PGampE solar plants in the desert Truth about energy (2007)

[12] Nuclear Energy Agency Projected costs of generating electricityhttpwwwieaorgtextbasenppdffree2005ElecCostPDF (2005)

[13] Nuclear Energy Agency Projected costs of generating electricityhttpwwwieaorgTextbasenpsumElecCost2010SUMpdf (2010)

[14] Mark Fischetti The human cost of energy Scientific American (September 2011)

[15] Uranium Information Center (UIC) The Economics of Nuclear Power Technical report AustralianUranium Association Melbourne (March 2008)

[16] European Commission Research team of the ExternE project serieshttpwwwexterneinfoteamhtml (2007)

[17] B W Heard B W Brook T M L Wigley and C J A Bradshaw Burden of proof A comprehensivereview of the feasibility of 100 renewable-electricity systems Renewable and Sustainable EnergyReviews 76 (2017) 1122ndash1133

[18] William H Hannum The technology of the integral fast reactor and its associated fuel cycle Progressin Nuclear Energy 31 1ndash2 (1997)

[19] George S Stanford Integral fast reactors Source of safe abundant non-polluting powerhttpwwwnationalcenterorgNPA378html

[20] Gerald E Marsh and George S Stanford Bombs reprocessing and reactor grade plutonium Forumon Physics amp Society of the American Physical Society Newsletter 35 2 (April 2006)httphttpwwwthesciencecouncilcomindexphpgeorge-stanford

[21] Charles Till Plentiful energy and the IFR story The Republic News and Issues Magazine (June-September 2005) httpwwwsustainablenuclearorgPADspad0509tillhtml

[22] The Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP) httpwwwgnepenergygov

[23] Vic Reis Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP) in American Nuclear Society meetingReno NV American Nuclear Society (5 June 2006)httpwwwsustainablenuclearorgPADspad0606reispdf

[24] Doug Lightfoot Wallace Manheimer Dan Meneley Duane Pendergast and George S Stanford NuclearFission Fuel Is Inexhaustible in Climate Change Technology Conference (10ndash12 May 2006)Ottawa Ontario Canada

Page 14 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

[25] George S Stanford LWR Recycle Necessity or Impediment in ldquoGlobal 2003rdquo ANS WinterMeeting New Orleans American Nuclear Society (16ndash20 November 2003)httpwwwnationalcenterorgLWRStanfordpdf

[26] Senators Richard Lugar and Even Bayh A nuclear fuel bank advocated Chicago Tribune (22 October2006)

[27] Gerald E Marsh and George S Stanford Yucca Mountain The Right DecisionhttpwwwnationalcenterorgNPA415html (June 2002)

[28] Steve Kirsch httpskirschcompoliticsglobalwarmingifrhtm Summary blog

[29] Janne Wallenius Ateranvandning av langlivat avfall och sluten branslecykel mojlig i nya reaktortyper(Reuse of long-lived waste and a closed fuel cycle possible in new reactor types) Nucleus (April 2007)15ndash19

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 15

Appendix ndash Fission product yields from light-water reactors

See httpenwikipediaorgwikiFission_product_yield Sorted by half life

Number Isotope decay path Mass per

fractiondagger and half life GWe-year Comment

28336 131I802dminusrarr 131Xe 3150 kg Reduced by 195times10minus14 per year ndash 06 ng after one year

554478 Various lt 1y 5411 kglowast Decay to stable products

03912 106Ru3736dminusrarr 106Rh 3519 kg

asymp 035 134Cs2065yminusrarr 134Ba 3980 kg Created in the reactor from 133Cs by neutron capture

22713 147Pm262yminusrarr 147Sm 2833 kg

00297 125Sb276yminusrarr 125Te 315 g

lt00330 155Eu476yminusrarr 155Gd 434 g Mostly destroyed by neutron capture in the reactor

02717 85Kr1078yminusrarr 85Rb 1960 kg Currently released to the atmosphere

lt00003 113mCd141yminusrarr 113mIn 288 g Mostly destroyed by neutron capture in the reactor

57518 90Sr289yminusrarr 90Y 4393 kg Principal medium-term radiation and heat source319hminusrarr 90Zr

60899 137Cs3008yminusrarr 137Ba 7080 kg Principal medium-term radiation and heat source

lt04203 151Sm90yminusrarr 151Eu 5385 kg Mostly destroyed by neutron capture in the reactor

1e18yminusrarr 147Pm 151Eu is essentially stable262yminusrarr 147Sm1e11yminusrarr 143Nd

60507 99Tc211kyminusrarr 99Ru 5083 kg Dominant radiation source among fission products in the

range of 104 rarr 106 years candidate for transmutation

to 100Tc1546sminusrarr 100Ru

00236 126Sn230kyminusrarr 126Sb 252 g1235dminusrarr 126Te

00508 79Se295kyminusrarr 79Br 341 g

62856 93Zr153myminusrarr 93Nb 4960 kg

lt63333 135Cs23myminusrarr 135Ba 7255 kg

01629 107Pd65myminusrarr 107Ag 1479 kg

06576 129I157myminusrarr 129Xe 7198 kg Candidate for transmutation to 130I

1236hminusrarr 130Xe

asymp 644 133Cs stable 7268 kg A few percent converted by neutron capture to 134Cs

lt10888 149Sm stable 1377 kg

lt00065 157Gd stable 8659 gdaggerThe number fraction is the fraction of the atoms of fission products that are the specified isotope notthe mass fraction The mass is computed by multiplying the number fraction by the atomic mass andnormalizing the total to one tonne per GWe-yearlowastAssumes average mass number of 115

Thermal neutron transmutation of 90Sr 137Cs 126Sn 79Se 93Zr 135Cs and 107Pd is not practical due tolow neutron absorption cross section at the neutron temperature in LWRs

Page 16 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

The amount of an isotope at a particular time can be calculated by solving the differential equation

dN(t)

dt= k minus ln 2

τN(t)

where N(t) is the amount at time t in years k is the production rate per year and τ is the half-life in yearsThe solution (assuming N(0) = 0) is

N(t) =τk

ln 2

(1minus 2minustτ

)

From this when t gtgt τ the amount of each radioactive fission product is exponentially asymptotic toa constant approximately τk ln 2 decay compensates for production The amount of these materials isproportional to the power capacity not the total amount of energy produced If stable decay products arecontinuously removed the size of the repository is roughly constant

The following table shows asymptotic fractions and asymptotic masses per GWe (not GWe-year) of shortand medium half-life fission products The fraction is measured in terms of the annual number of fissionproduct atoms which is twice the number of actinide atoms consumed

Asymptotic number fraction and mass per GWe

Isotope Fraction Mass kg Isotope Fraction Mass kg

137Cs3008yminusrarr 137Ba 2643 3072lowast 90Sr

289yminusrarr 90Y2671dminusrarr 90Zr 2398 1831

Various τ lt 1y 7999 lt7806dagger 147Pm262yminusrarr 147Sm 85852 1071

85Kr1078yminusrarr 85Rb 4226 3048Dagger 134Cs

2065yminusrarr 134Ba 1043 1185lowast

106Ru3736dminusrarr 106Rh 05773 5192 155Eu

476yminusrarr 155Gd 02266 2981125Sb

276yminusrarr 125Te 01183 1254 131I802dminusrarr 131Xe 00898 0998

lowastAssumes isotope separation of 133Cs 134Cs 135Cs and 137Cs Total caesium

accumulates at 220 kgGWe-yrdaggerThe unclassified components are assumed to have an average mass number of

115 and to have a one year half life Since they are a mixture of products with

half lives under one year the true asymptotic fraction and mass are lessDagger 85Kr is currently vented to the atmosphere

The total mass of these products exponentially approaches an asymptote of less than 5844 kg per GWeor 9934 tonnes for a 17 TWe economy If their decay products are continuously removed storage isnot a problem If not reprocessed they are diluted by their decay products and therefore their specificactivity declines sufficiently that they are not radioactively dangerous after 200ndash300 years but the volumeis proportional to kt not k In 200 years of a 17 TWe economy the amount is less than 250000 tonnes lessthan 130000 cubic yards or less than 44 feet deep on a football field Separating the streams according tohalf life reduces the 200-year stream by 85

For long-lived isotopes ie t ltlt τ on a human time scale decay does not compensate for productionApproximating 2minustτ = exp(minust ln 2τ) asymp 1minus t ln 2τ the solution is N(t) asymp kt as expected The amount ofthese fission products is in proportion to the total amount of energy produced not the power capacity

Long-lived isotopes accumulate at the rate of about 182 kg per GWe-year or about 309 tonnes per year fora 17 TWe economy 99Tc and 129I can be destroyed by transmutation but the others amounting to about124 kg per GWe-year are impractical to destroy by transmutation If other isotopes of caesium (about 147kg per GWe-year) are not separated from 135Cs the total long-term disposal stream increases to 271 kg perGWe-year (but its specific activity decreases) If stored for about 30 years before disposal about 35 kg perGWe-year of 137Cs will decay leaving about 235 kg per GWe-year or about 400 tonnes per year for a 17TWe economy if the resulting stable 137Ba were removed Surely disposal of 400 tonnes per year of theseisotopes would not be a problem

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 17

Value of one tonne of used LWR fuelseparated and reduced to metal

Value Radioactivity

Value $tonne (MevBq-s) Half life Heat

Substance Mass (gr) $gr of waste α β γ (years) Wgr238U 944100 0143 135006 42 0496 447times109

236U 3971 0143 568 45 0494 234times107

235U 7974 0143 1140 44 0657 704234U 225 0143 32 48 00532 245times105

237Np 503 0143 72 47 00294 214times106

242Pu 454 0143 65 48 00449 376times105

241Pu 111 0143 16 49 01485 1435240Pu 2302 0143 329 52 05424 656times103

239Pu 5025 0143 719 52 00516 241times104

238Pu 95 0143 14 55 00435 8774 156241Am 1084 0143 155 55 00595 432243Am 85 0143 12 53 00747 737244Cm 4 0143 1 58 00428 1811 244

Actinides 965933 0143 13812996Zr 798 305 2434 Stable94Zr 741 305 2260 Stable93Zr 718 305 2190 0010 00305 161times106

92Zr 639 305 1948 Stable91Zr 590 305 1799 Stable90Zr 391 305 1192 Stable

Fuel cladding 3877 305 1182299Tc for alloys 771 1000 7710 00846 weak 2111times105

90Sr 391 200 782 01958 29 09388Sr 350 200 700 Stable137Cs 377 200 754 0187 0479 3017 042135Cs 300 200 600 00757 0662 23times106

133Cs 1125 200 2250 Stable

Heat sources 2543 200 5086

Br 22 100 22 Stable

Mo 3345 0257 860 Stable

Ru 2177 4578 99663 Stable

Ag 76 200 152 Stable

Cd 108 200 216 Stable

Ba 2311 0560 1295 Stable

Tb 26 3000 78 Stable

Dy 14 500 7 Stable

Rh 467 50000 233500 Stable87Rb 365 1178 4300 00817 481times1010

123Te 485 139 675 gt 92times 1016

138La 1215 180 2187 00329 144 102times1011

144Nd 3488 220 7673 190 229times1015

115In 26 1000 26 01532 441times1014

(cont)

Page 18 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

Value of one tonne of used LWR fuelseparated and reduced to metal (cont)

Value Radioactivity

Value $tonne (MevBq-s) Half life Heat

Substance Mass (gr) $gr of waste α β γ (years) Wgr142Ce 2355 028 662 15 gt 50times 1016

152Gd 142 548 778 215 14times1015

147Sm 200 200 400 225 106times1011

148Sm 167 200 334 19323 70times1015

149Sm 24 200 5 Stable151Sm 88 200 17 00196 00216 90152Sm + 154Sm 419 200 838 Stable107Pd 1371 8294 113710 00093 01476 65times106

90Y 456 1000 4560 09336 weak 64 hr152Eu 035 6000 21 00831 0122 134154Eu 1095 6000 6570 0221 0123 8601155Eu 016 6000 9 0047 0087 4753

Other solid 19297 4785583H 00034 294117 1000 00156 1254He 289 173 5 Stable85Kr 308 200 616 0687 0514 1072

Xe 5332 170 9050 Stable

Gases 5643 10671

Total fission 32131 1600 513937

products

Not counted 1936

Total 1000000 065 652066

httpbrcgove-mailsAugust10Commercial Value of 1 Metric ton of used fuelpdf with radioac-tivity data from httpwwwnndcbnlgovchart

Actinides can be recycled as fuel

Zirconium from fuel pin alloys and cladding and fission products can be recycled into new fuel pin claddingand alloys

Some radioactive elements produce sufficient heat to be usable as energy sources for example in radioisotopethermal generators for space applications These would not be isotopically separated 90Sr is 53 of thetotal strontium in fission products so heat production for all strontium is 049 Wgr 137Cs is 21 of thetotal caesium in fission products so heat production for all caesium is 0088 Wgr

Technetium is valuable for alloying with rhenium and has medical applications

Gases would be separated first then actinides then highly radioactive products This would reduce the costof separating and reducing the stable and less radioactive products

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 19

Appendix ndash Fuel and waste cycles

Actinides

IFRReprocessing

PrimaryProcessing

Disposaland sale

NonradioactiveLong half lifemostly 135Cs and 93Zr30 kg per GWe-yr665 kg per GWe-yearwith all cesium

ContinuousReprocessing

584 tonnes per GWe

Medium andshort half life

1 Tonneper GWe-year

99Tc 13 kg129I 177 kg

per GWe-yr

Usedfuel

Usedfuel

Sale

Nonradioactive

20 tonnes per GWe-yr

Enrichment

Sale

Disposaland sale

Enrichment LWR andLWR reprocessing

eventually phased out

LWRLWR

Reprocessing

Depleted uraniumstorage

Plutonium

8-10 tonnesper GWestartup

IFR

Enriched uranium

Fis

sion

pro

duct

s1

Ton

ne p

er G

We-

yr

MinedUranium

Acceleratortransmutation

Unused fuel and fissionproducts for transmutation

1 tonneper GWe-yr

Page 20 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

Appendix ndash Partitioning and Transmutation

Medium- and long-lived fission products could in principle be destroyed by transmuting them to isotopesthat are stable or have short half lives which decay to stable isotopes

The following tablea shows that 99Tc 129I 93Zr 107Pd and 135Cs can be transmuted much faster thantheir natural decay (ie T Jtrans ltlt T J12) The radiotoxicity of 107Pd and 135Cs is so small it is not worth

the bother to transmute them 93Zr can be recycled into fuel pin cladding or fuel alloying If 99Tc and129I were destroyed there could be very few remaining objections to nuclear power For 90Sr and 137CsT Jtrans gtgt T J12 so transmuting them is not interesting They are biologically active but can simply be

stored for about six half lives (180 years) after which the remaining amounts (069 and 11 kgGWe-yr) canbe discarded or sold If they are initially deposited in ldquodeep geologicalrdquo storage the containment durationrequirement for the repositories is significantly shorter by a factor of 1500 than for used LWR fuel For 79Seand 126Sn T Jtrans ltlt T J12 but T Jtrans is not sufficiently small to be interesting Although the radiotoxicity

per gram of 126Sn and 79Se is large they are produced in such small amounts that their total radiotoxicityper GWe-yr is comparable to that of the others

Isotope J decay Radiotoxicity σJ(nγ) (barns) T Jtrans (years) Mass per Transmuted

mode and T J12 Svg SvGWe-yr Thermal Fast Thermal Fast GWe-yr decay mode

90Sr289yminusrarr 90Y 1411k 1664M 014 001 1600 2200 1179 kg 91Sr

963hminusrarr 91Y137Cs

3008yminusrarr 137Ba 4187k 1152M 002 001 11000 2200 2752 kg 138Cs3341mminusrarr 138Ba

99Tc211kyminusrarr 99Ru 04 8708 43 02 51 110 2177 kg 100Tc

1546sminusrarr 100Ru126Sn

230kyminusrarr 126Sb 4936 4019 005 0005 4400 4400 0814 kg 127Sn21hminusrarr 127Sb

79Se295kyminusrarr 79Br 7478 1271 01 003 2200 7300 0170 kg 80Se is stable

93Zr153myminusrarr 93Nb 0102 2097 028 003 790 730 2056 kg 94Zr is stable

135Cs23myminusrarr 135Ba 0085 1009 13 007 170 310 1187 kg 136Cs

1304dminusrarr 136Ba107Pd

65myminusrarr 107Ag 00007 8309 03 05 730 44 6922 kg 108Pd is stable129I

157myminusrarr 129Xe 0718 4921 43 014 51 160 8853 kg 130I1236hminusrarr 130Xe

T Jtrans is the transmutation half-time for isotope J

Amounts and radioactivity from ORIGEN 22 Radiotoxicity dose factors from ICRP publication 119

This graph from the Swedish Radiation Safety Authorityb[29]

0001

001

01

1

10

100Radiotoxic inventory [Svg]

102 103 104 105 106101

TRU

FP

Uranium in nature

t[y]

shows that most of the radiotoxicity of used nuclear fuel arisesfrom the transuranics which IFR would consume and thatthe radiotoxicity of fission products is below the radiotoxic-ity of uranium ore within 200-300 years Transmuting 99Tcand 129I would reduce the long-term tail of the fission productradiotoxicity from 300 years onward by 60 The ordinateis radiotoxicity per gram of the original fission products notthe remaining fission products at the time specified by the ab-scissa Fission products are stored together stable ones arenot continuously separated from radioactive ones

aData from httpusersictpit˜pub_offlectureslns005Number_2Slessarev_1pdfbhttpwwwstralsakerhetsmyndighetenseGlobalPublikationerTidskriftNucleus2007Nucleus-4-2007pdf

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 21

Appendix ndash Worldwide limitations of alternative energy sources

Details in httpwwwphysicsucsdedu~tmurphyphys239shu_energypdf by Dr Frank Shu

Solar photovoltaic

Solar photovoltaic could in principle supply 15 TWe enough to power the Earthrsquos entire current energyeconomy using about 02 of the land area of the Earth below 60 latitude

Wind

Land-based wind cannot supply more than about 18 TWe or about 12 of the current energy economy

Ocean currents

The Kuroshio current which flows northward in the western Pacific past Taiwan and Japan has a powerof about 100 GW Assuming 50 efficiency of extraction allows about 50 GWe to be extracted The gulfstream flows twice as fast producing eight times as much power allowing about 400 GWe to be extractedExtracting significant power from ocean currents anywhere in the world would have profound effects onclimate

Coastal ocean waves

Assuming 50 efficiency of energy extraction ocean waves impinging on all the shorelines of the Earth couldprovide about 024 TWe or about 16 of the current energy economy

Geothermal

Geothermal sources cannot provide more than about 04 TWe or about 27 of the current energy economy

Tides

Energy extractable from tidal sources amounts to about 3 GWe worldwide or about 002 of the currentenergy economy It is only economically feasible in bays such as the Bay of Fundy which concentrate tidesto heights of as much as 5 meters Damming such bays has effects on the resonant frequency of nearby baysand estuaries profoundly altering currents and tides in nearby areas

Hydroelectric

The Earthrsquos land area is 148times 1012 m2 Average rainfall is 12 meters per year Water density is 103 kgm3

Total rainfall is thus about 18times 1017 kg Dropping 100 meters releases 18times 1017 kgtimes 98 ms2 times 100 m =

176times 1020 joule Spread out over a year 315times 107 s gives 56 TW Assuming 90 efficiency yields 5 TWeThe total available is less perhaps 35 TWe if polar regions are excluded Hydroelectric installations observeabout 30 capacity factor yielding total worldwide availability of about 1 TWe-yryr or about 67 of thecurrent energy economy

Total

Excluding solar photovoltaic and ocean currents alternative electricity sources could yield about 3443 TWeworldwide or about 23 of the current energy economy

Page 22 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

[25] George S Stanford LWR Recycle Necessity or Impediment in ldquoGlobal 2003rdquo ANS WinterMeeting New Orleans American Nuclear Society (16ndash20 November 2003)httpwwwnationalcenterorgLWRStanfordpdf

[26] Senators Richard Lugar and Even Bayh A nuclear fuel bank advocated Chicago Tribune (22 October2006)

[27] Gerald E Marsh and George S Stanford Yucca Mountain The Right DecisionhttpwwwnationalcenterorgNPA415html (June 2002)

[28] Steve Kirsch httpskirschcompoliticsglobalwarmingifrhtm Summary blog

[29] Janne Wallenius Ateranvandning av langlivat avfall och sluten branslecykel mojlig i nya reaktortyper(Reuse of long-lived waste and a closed fuel cycle possible in new reactor types) Nucleus (April 2007)15ndash19

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 15

Appendix ndash Fission product yields from light-water reactors

See httpenwikipediaorgwikiFission_product_yield Sorted by half life

Number Isotope decay path Mass per

fractiondagger and half life GWe-year Comment

28336 131I802dminusrarr 131Xe 3150 kg Reduced by 195times10minus14 per year ndash 06 ng after one year

554478 Various lt 1y 5411 kglowast Decay to stable products

03912 106Ru3736dminusrarr 106Rh 3519 kg

asymp 035 134Cs2065yminusrarr 134Ba 3980 kg Created in the reactor from 133Cs by neutron capture

22713 147Pm262yminusrarr 147Sm 2833 kg

00297 125Sb276yminusrarr 125Te 315 g

lt00330 155Eu476yminusrarr 155Gd 434 g Mostly destroyed by neutron capture in the reactor

02717 85Kr1078yminusrarr 85Rb 1960 kg Currently released to the atmosphere

lt00003 113mCd141yminusrarr 113mIn 288 g Mostly destroyed by neutron capture in the reactor

57518 90Sr289yminusrarr 90Y 4393 kg Principal medium-term radiation and heat source319hminusrarr 90Zr

60899 137Cs3008yminusrarr 137Ba 7080 kg Principal medium-term radiation and heat source

lt04203 151Sm90yminusrarr 151Eu 5385 kg Mostly destroyed by neutron capture in the reactor

1e18yminusrarr 147Pm 151Eu is essentially stable262yminusrarr 147Sm1e11yminusrarr 143Nd

60507 99Tc211kyminusrarr 99Ru 5083 kg Dominant radiation source among fission products in the

range of 104 rarr 106 years candidate for transmutation

to 100Tc1546sminusrarr 100Ru

00236 126Sn230kyminusrarr 126Sb 252 g1235dminusrarr 126Te

00508 79Se295kyminusrarr 79Br 341 g

62856 93Zr153myminusrarr 93Nb 4960 kg

lt63333 135Cs23myminusrarr 135Ba 7255 kg

01629 107Pd65myminusrarr 107Ag 1479 kg

06576 129I157myminusrarr 129Xe 7198 kg Candidate for transmutation to 130I

1236hminusrarr 130Xe

asymp 644 133Cs stable 7268 kg A few percent converted by neutron capture to 134Cs

lt10888 149Sm stable 1377 kg

lt00065 157Gd stable 8659 gdaggerThe number fraction is the fraction of the atoms of fission products that are the specified isotope notthe mass fraction The mass is computed by multiplying the number fraction by the atomic mass andnormalizing the total to one tonne per GWe-yearlowastAssumes average mass number of 115

Thermal neutron transmutation of 90Sr 137Cs 126Sn 79Se 93Zr 135Cs and 107Pd is not practical due tolow neutron absorption cross section at the neutron temperature in LWRs

Page 16 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

The amount of an isotope at a particular time can be calculated by solving the differential equation

dN(t)

dt= k minus ln 2

τN(t)

where N(t) is the amount at time t in years k is the production rate per year and τ is the half-life in yearsThe solution (assuming N(0) = 0) is

N(t) =τk

ln 2

(1minus 2minustτ

)

From this when t gtgt τ the amount of each radioactive fission product is exponentially asymptotic toa constant approximately τk ln 2 decay compensates for production The amount of these materials isproportional to the power capacity not the total amount of energy produced If stable decay products arecontinuously removed the size of the repository is roughly constant

The following table shows asymptotic fractions and asymptotic masses per GWe (not GWe-year) of shortand medium half-life fission products The fraction is measured in terms of the annual number of fissionproduct atoms which is twice the number of actinide atoms consumed

Asymptotic number fraction and mass per GWe

Isotope Fraction Mass kg Isotope Fraction Mass kg

137Cs3008yminusrarr 137Ba 2643 3072lowast 90Sr

289yminusrarr 90Y2671dminusrarr 90Zr 2398 1831

Various τ lt 1y 7999 lt7806dagger 147Pm262yminusrarr 147Sm 85852 1071

85Kr1078yminusrarr 85Rb 4226 3048Dagger 134Cs

2065yminusrarr 134Ba 1043 1185lowast

106Ru3736dminusrarr 106Rh 05773 5192 155Eu

476yminusrarr 155Gd 02266 2981125Sb

276yminusrarr 125Te 01183 1254 131I802dminusrarr 131Xe 00898 0998

lowastAssumes isotope separation of 133Cs 134Cs 135Cs and 137Cs Total caesium

accumulates at 220 kgGWe-yrdaggerThe unclassified components are assumed to have an average mass number of

115 and to have a one year half life Since they are a mixture of products with

half lives under one year the true asymptotic fraction and mass are lessDagger 85Kr is currently vented to the atmosphere

The total mass of these products exponentially approaches an asymptote of less than 5844 kg per GWeor 9934 tonnes for a 17 TWe economy If their decay products are continuously removed storage isnot a problem If not reprocessed they are diluted by their decay products and therefore their specificactivity declines sufficiently that they are not radioactively dangerous after 200ndash300 years but the volumeis proportional to kt not k In 200 years of a 17 TWe economy the amount is less than 250000 tonnes lessthan 130000 cubic yards or less than 44 feet deep on a football field Separating the streams according tohalf life reduces the 200-year stream by 85

For long-lived isotopes ie t ltlt τ on a human time scale decay does not compensate for productionApproximating 2minustτ = exp(minust ln 2τ) asymp 1minus t ln 2τ the solution is N(t) asymp kt as expected The amount ofthese fission products is in proportion to the total amount of energy produced not the power capacity

Long-lived isotopes accumulate at the rate of about 182 kg per GWe-year or about 309 tonnes per year fora 17 TWe economy 99Tc and 129I can be destroyed by transmutation but the others amounting to about124 kg per GWe-year are impractical to destroy by transmutation If other isotopes of caesium (about 147kg per GWe-year) are not separated from 135Cs the total long-term disposal stream increases to 271 kg perGWe-year (but its specific activity decreases) If stored for about 30 years before disposal about 35 kg perGWe-year of 137Cs will decay leaving about 235 kg per GWe-year or about 400 tonnes per year for a 17TWe economy if the resulting stable 137Ba were removed Surely disposal of 400 tonnes per year of theseisotopes would not be a problem

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 17

Value of one tonne of used LWR fuelseparated and reduced to metal

Value Radioactivity

Value $tonne (MevBq-s) Half life Heat

Substance Mass (gr) $gr of waste α β γ (years) Wgr238U 944100 0143 135006 42 0496 447times109

236U 3971 0143 568 45 0494 234times107

235U 7974 0143 1140 44 0657 704234U 225 0143 32 48 00532 245times105

237Np 503 0143 72 47 00294 214times106

242Pu 454 0143 65 48 00449 376times105

241Pu 111 0143 16 49 01485 1435240Pu 2302 0143 329 52 05424 656times103

239Pu 5025 0143 719 52 00516 241times104

238Pu 95 0143 14 55 00435 8774 156241Am 1084 0143 155 55 00595 432243Am 85 0143 12 53 00747 737244Cm 4 0143 1 58 00428 1811 244

Actinides 965933 0143 13812996Zr 798 305 2434 Stable94Zr 741 305 2260 Stable93Zr 718 305 2190 0010 00305 161times106

92Zr 639 305 1948 Stable91Zr 590 305 1799 Stable90Zr 391 305 1192 Stable

Fuel cladding 3877 305 1182299Tc for alloys 771 1000 7710 00846 weak 2111times105

90Sr 391 200 782 01958 29 09388Sr 350 200 700 Stable137Cs 377 200 754 0187 0479 3017 042135Cs 300 200 600 00757 0662 23times106

133Cs 1125 200 2250 Stable

Heat sources 2543 200 5086

Br 22 100 22 Stable

Mo 3345 0257 860 Stable

Ru 2177 4578 99663 Stable

Ag 76 200 152 Stable

Cd 108 200 216 Stable

Ba 2311 0560 1295 Stable

Tb 26 3000 78 Stable

Dy 14 500 7 Stable

Rh 467 50000 233500 Stable87Rb 365 1178 4300 00817 481times1010

123Te 485 139 675 gt 92times 1016

138La 1215 180 2187 00329 144 102times1011

144Nd 3488 220 7673 190 229times1015

115In 26 1000 26 01532 441times1014

(cont)

Page 18 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

Value of one tonne of used LWR fuelseparated and reduced to metal (cont)

Value Radioactivity

Value $tonne (MevBq-s) Half life Heat

Substance Mass (gr) $gr of waste α β γ (years) Wgr142Ce 2355 028 662 15 gt 50times 1016

152Gd 142 548 778 215 14times1015

147Sm 200 200 400 225 106times1011

148Sm 167 200 334 19323 70times1015

149Sm 24 200 5 Stable151Sm 88 200 17 00196 00216 90152Sm + 154Sm 419 200 838 Stable107Pd 1371 8294 113710 00093 01476 65times106

90Y 456 1000 4560 09336 weak 64 hr152Eu 035 6000 21 00831 0122 134154Eu 1095 6000 6570 0221 0123 8601155Eu 016 6000 9 0047 0087 4753

Other solid 19297 4785583H 00034 294117 1000 00156 1254He 289 173 5 Stable85Kr 308 200 616 0687 0514 1072

Xe 5332 170 9050 Stable

Gases 5643 10671

Total fission 32131 1600 513937

products

Not counted 1936

Total 1000000 065 652066

httpbrcgove-mailsAugust10Commercial Value of 1 Metric ton of used fuelpdf with radioac-tivity data from httpwwwnndcbnlgovchart

Actinides can be recycled as fuel

Zirconium from fuel pin alloys and cladding and fission products can be recycled into new fuel pin claddingand alloys

Some radioactive elements produce sufficient heat to be usable as energy sources for example in radioisotopethermal generators for space applications These would not be isotopically separated 90Sr is 53 of thetotal strontium in fission products so heat production for all strontium is 049 Wgr 137Cs is 21 of thetotal caesium in fission products so heat production for all caesium is 0088 Wgr

Technetium is valuable for alloying with rhenium and has medical applications

Gases would be separated first then actinides then highly radioactive products This would reduce the costof separating and reducing the stable and less radioactive products

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 19

Appendix ndash Fuel and waste cycles

Actinides

IFRReprocessing

PrimaryProcessing

Disposaland sale

NonradioactiveLong half lifemostly 135Cs and 93Zr30 kg per GWe-yr665 kg per GWe-yearwith all cesium

ContinuousReprocessing

584 tonnes per GWe

Medium andshort half life

1 Tonneper GWe-year

99Tc 13 kg129I 177 kg

per GWe-yr

Usedfuel

Usedfuel

Sale

Nonradioactive

20 tonnes per GWe-yr

Enrichment

Sale

Disposaland sale

Enrichment LWR andLWR reprocessing

eventually phased out

LWRLWR

Reprocessing

Depleted uraniumstorage

Plutonium

8-10 tonnesper GWestartup

IFR

Enriched uranium

Fis

sion

pro

duct

s1

Ton

ne p

er G

We-

yr

MinedUranium

Acceleratortransmutation

Unused fuel and fissionproducts for transmutation

1 tonneper GWe-yr

Page 20 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

Appendix ndash Partitioning and Transmutation

Medium- and long-lived fission products could in principle be destroyed by transmuting them to isotopesthat are stable or have short half lives which decay to stable isotopes

The following tablea shows that 99Tc 129I 93Zr 107Pd and 135Cs can be transmuted much faster thantheir natural decay (ie T Jtrans ltlt T J12) The radiotoxicity of 107Pd and 135Cs is so small it is not worth

the bother to transmute them 93Zr can be recycled into fuel pin cladding or fuel alloying If 99Tc and129I were destroyed there could be very few remaining objections to nuclear power For 90Sr and 137CsT Jtrans gtgt T J12 so transmuting them is not interesting They are biologically active but can simply be

stored for about six half lives (180 years) after which the remaining amounts (069 and 11 kgGWe-yr) canbe discarded or sold If they are initially deposited in ldquodeep geologicalrdquo storage the containment durationrequirement for the repositories is significantly shorter by a factor of 1500 than for used LWR fuel For 79Seand 126Sn T Jtrans ltlt T J12 but T Jtrans is not sufficiently small to be interesting Although the radiotoxicity

per gram of 126Sn and 79Se is large they are produced in such small amounts that their total radiotoxicityper GWe-yr is comparable to that of the others

Isotope J decay Radiotoxicity σJ(nγ) (barns) T Jtrans (years) Mass per Transmuted

mode and T J12 Svg SvGWe-yr Thermal Fast Thermal Fast GWe-yr decay mode

90Sr289yminusrarr 90Y 1411k 1664M 014 001 1600 2200 1179 kg 91Sr

963hminusrarr 91Y137Cs

3008yminusrarr 137Ba 4187k 1152M 002 001 11000 2200 2752 kg 138Cs3341mminusrarr 138Ba

99Tc211kyminusrarr 99Ru 04 8708 43 02 51 110 2177 kg 100Tc

1546sminusrarr 100Ru126Sn

230kyminusrarr 126Sb 4936 4019 005 0005 4400 4400 0814 kg 127Sn21hminusrarr 127Sb

79Se295kyminusrarr 79Br 7478 1271 01 003 2200 7300 0170 kg 80Se is stable

93Zr153myminusrarr 93Nb 0102 2097 028 003 790 730 2056 kg 94Zr is stable

135Cs23myminusrarr 135Ba 0085 1009 13 007 170 310 1187 kg 136Cs

1304dminusrarr 136Ba107Pd

65myminusrarr 107Ag 00007 8309 03 05 730 44 6922 kg 108Pd is stable129I

157myminusrarr 129Xe 0718 4921 43 014 51 160 8853 kg 130I1236hminusrarr 130Xe

T Jtrans is the transmutation half-time for isotope J

Amounts and radioactivity from ORIGEN 22 Radiotoxicity dose factors from ICRP publication 119

This graph from the Swedish Radiation Safety Authorityb[29]

0001

001

01

1

10

100Radiotoxic inventory [Svg]

102 103 104 105 106101

TRU

FP

Uranium in nature

t[y]

shows that most of the radiotoxicity of used nuclear fuel arisesfrom the transuranics which IFR would consume and thatthe radiotoxicity of fission products is below the radiotoxic-ity of uranium ore within 200-300 years Transmuting 99Tcand 129I would reduce the long-term tail of the fission productradiotoxicity from 300 years onward by 60 The ordinateis radiotoxicity per gram of the original fission products notthe remaining fission products at the time specified by the ab-scissa Fission products are stored together stable ones arenot continuously separated from radioactive ones

aData from httpusersictpit˜pub_offlectureslns005Number_2Slessarev_1pdfbhttpwwwstralsakerhetsmyndighetenseGlobalPublikationerTidskriftNucleus2007Nucleus-4-2007pdf

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 21

Appendix ndash Worldwide limitations of alternative energy sources

Details in httpwwwphysicsucsdedu~tmurphyphys239shu_energypdf by Dr Frank Shu

Solar photovoltaic

Solar photovoltaic could in principle supply 15 TWe enough to power the Earthrsquos entire current energyeconomy using about 02 of the land area of the Earth below 60 latitude

Wind

Land-based wind cannot supply more than about 18 TWe or about 12 of the current energy economy

Ocean currents

The Kuroshio current which flows northward in the western Pacific past Taiwan and Japan has a powerof about 100 GW Assuming 50 efficiency of extraction allows about 50 GWe to be extracted The gulfstream flows twice as fast producing eight times as much power allowing about 400 GWe to be extractedExtracting significant power from ocean currents anywhere in the world would have profound effects onclimate

Coastal ocean waves

Assuming 50 efficiency of energy extraction ocean waves impinging on all the shorelines of the Earth couldprovide about 024 TWe or about 16 of the current energy economy

Geothermal

Geothermal sources cannot provide more than about 04 TWe or about 27 of the current energy economy

Tides

Energy extractable from tidal sources amounts to about 3 GWe worldwide or about 002 of the currentenergy economy It is only economically feasible in bays such as the Bay of Fundy which concentrate tidesto heights of as much as 5 meters Damming such bays has effects on the resonant frequency of nearby baysand estuaries profoundly altering currents and tides in nearby areas

Hydroelectric

The Earthrsquos land area is 148times 1012 m2 Average rainfall is 12 meters per year Water density is 103 kgm3

Total rainfall is thus about 18times 1017 kg Dropping 100 meters releases 18times 1017 kgtimes 98 ms2 times 100 m =

176times 1020 joule Spread out over a year 315times 107 s gives 56 TW Assuming 90 efficiency yields 5 TWeThe total available is less perhaps 35 TWe if polar regions are excluded Hydroelectric installations observeabout 30 capacity factor yielding total worldwide availability of about 1 TWe-yryr or about 67 of thecurrent energy economy

Total

Excluding solar photovoltaic and ocean currents alternative electricity sources could yield about 3443 TWeworldwide or about 23 of the current energy economy

Page 22 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

Appendix ndash Fission product yields from light-water reactors

See httpenwikipediaorgwikiFission_product_yield Sorted by half life

Number Isotope decay path Mass per

fractiondagger and half life GWe-year Comment

28336 131I802dminusrarr 131Xe 3150 kg Reduced by 195times10minus14 per year ndash 06 ng after one year

554478 Various lt 1y 5411 kglowast Decay to stable products

03912 106Ru3736dminusrarr 106Rh 3519 kg

asymp 035 134Cs2065yminusrarr 134Ba 3980 kg Created in the reactor from 133Cs by neutron capture

22713 147Pm262yminusrarr 147Sm 2833 kg

00297 125Sb276yminusrarr 125Te 315 g

lt00330 155Eu476yminusrarr 155Gd 434 g Mostly destroyed by neutron capture in the reactor

02717 85Kr1078yminusrarr 85Rb 1960 kg Currently released to the atmosphere

lt00003 113mCd141yminusrarr 113mIn 288 g Mostly destroyed by neutron capture in the reactor

57518 90Sr289yminusrarr 90Y 4393 kg Principal medium-term radiation and heat source319hminusrarr 90Zr

60899 137Cs3008yminusrarr 137Ba 7080 kg Principal medium-term radiation and heat source

lt04203 151Sm90yminusrarr 151Eu 5385 kg Mostly destroyed by neutron capture in the reactor

1e18yminusrarr 147Pm 151Eu is essentially stable262yminusrarr 147Sm1e11yminusrarr 143Nd

60507 99Tc211kyminusrarr 99Ru 5083 kg Dominant radiation source among fission products in the

range of 104 rarr 106 years candidate for transmutation

to 100Tc1546sminusrarr 100Ru

00236 126Sn230kyminusrarr 126Sb 252 g1235dminusrarr 126Te

00508 79Se295kyminusrarr 79Br 341 g

62856 93Zr153myminusrarr 93Nb 4960 kg

lt63333 135Cs23myminusrarr 135Ba 7255 kg

01629 107Pd65myminusrarr 107Ag 1479 kg

06576 129I157myminusrarr 129Xe 7198 kg Candidate for transmutation to 130I

1236hminusrarr 130Xe

asymp 644 133Cs stable 7268 kg A few percent converted by neutron capture to 134Cs

lt10888 149Sm stable 1377 kg

lt00065 157Gd stable 8659 gdaggerThe number fraction is the fraction of the atoms of fission products that are the specified isotope notthe mass fraction The mass is computed by multiplying the number fraction by the atomic mass andnormalizing the total to one tonne per GWe-yearlowastAssumes average mass number of 115

Thermal neutron transmutation of 90Sr 137Cs 126Sn 79Se 93Zr 135Cs and 107Pd is not practical due tolow neutron absorption cross section at the neutron temperature in LWRs

Page 16 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

The amount of an isotope at a particular time can be calculated by solving the differential equation

dN(t)

dt= k minus ln 2

τN(t)

where N(t) is the amount at time t in years k is the production rate per year and τ is the half-life in yearsThe solution (assuming N(0) = 0) is

N(t) =τk

ln 2

(1minus 2minustτ

)

From this when t gtgt τ the amount of each radioactive fission product is exponentially asymptotic toa constant approximately τk ln 2 decay compensates for production The amount of these materials isproportional to the power capacity not the total amount of energy produced If stable decay products arecontinuously removed the size of the repository is roughly constant

The following table shows asymptotic fractions and asymptotic masses per GWe (not GWe-year) of shortand medium half-life fission products The fraction is measured in terms of the annual number of fissionproduct atoms which is twice the number of actinide atoms consumed

Asymptotic number fraction and mass per GWe

Isotope Fraction Mass kg Isotope Fraction Mass kg

137Cs3008yminusrarr 137Ba 2643 3072lowast 90Sr

289yminusrarr 90Y2671dminusrarr 90Zr 2398 1831

Various τ lt 1y 7999 lt7806dagger 147Pm262yminusrarr 147Sm 85852 1071

85Kr1078yminusrarr 85Rb 4226 3048Dagger 134Cs

2065yminusrarr 134Ba 1043 1185lowast

106Ru3736dminusrarr 106Rh 05773 5192 155Eu

476yminusrarr 155Gd 02266 2981125Sb

276yminusrarr 125Te 01183 1254 131I802dminusrarr 131Xe 00898 0998

lowastAssumes isotope separation of 133Cs 134Cs 135Cs and 137Cs Total caesium

accumulates at 220 kgGWe-yrdaggerThe unclassified components are assumed to have an average mass number of

115 and to have a one year half life Since they are a mixture of products with

half lives under one year the true asymptotic fraction and mass are lessDagger 85Kr is currently vented to the atmosphere

The total mass of these products exponentially approaches an asymptote of less than 5844 kg per GWeor 9934 tonnes for a 17 TWe economy If their decay products are continuously removed storage isnot a problem If not reprocessed they are diluted by their decay products and therefore their specificactivity declines sufficiently that they are not radioactively dangerous after 200ndash300 years but the volumeis proportional to kt not k In 200 years of a 17 TWe economy the amount is less than 250000 tonnes lessthan 130000 cubic yards or less than 44 feet deep on a football field Separating the streams according tohalf life reduces the 200-year stream by 85

For long-lived isotopes ie t ltlt τ on a human time scale decay does not compensate for productionApproximating 2minustτ = exp(minust ln 2τ) asymp 1minus t ln 2τ the solution is N(t) asymp kt as expected The amount ofthese fission products is in proportion to the total amount of energy produced not the power capacity

Long-lived isotopes accumulate at the rate of about 182 kg per GWe-year or about 309 tonnes per year fora 17 TWe economy 99Tc and 129I can be destroyed by transmutation but the others amounting to about124 kg per GWe-year are impractical to destroy by transmutation If other isotopes of caesium (about 147kg per GWe-year) are not separated from 135Cs the total long-term disposal stream increases to 271 kg perGWe-year (but its specific activity decreases) If stored for about 30 years before disposal about 35 kg perGWe-year of 137Cs will decay leaving about 235 kg per GWe-year or about 400 tonnes per year for a 17TWe economy if the resulting stable 137Ba were removed Surely disposal of 400 tonnes per year of theseisotopes would not be a problem

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 17

Value of one tonne of used LWR fuelseparated and reduced to metal

Value Radioactivity

Value $tonne (MevBq-s) Half life Heat

Substance Mass (gr) $gr of waste α β γ (years) Wgr238U 944100 0143 135006 42 0496 447times109

236U 3971 0143 568 45 0494 234times107

235U 7974 0143 1140 44 0657 704234U 225 0143 32 48 00532 245times105

237Np 503 0143 72 47 00294 214times106

242Pu 454 0143 65 48 00449 376times105

241Pu 111 0143 16 49 01485 1435240Pu 2302 0143 329 52 05424 656times103

239Pu 5025 0143 719 52 00516 241times104

238Pu 95 0143 14 55 00435 8774 156241Am 1084 0143 155 55 00595 432243Am 85 0143 12 53 00747 737244Cm 4 0143 1 58 00428 1811 244

Actinides 965933 0143 13812996Zr 798 305 2434 Stable94Zr 741 305 2260 Stable93Zr 718 305 2190 0010 00305 161times106

92Zr 639 305 1948 Stable91Zr 590 305 1799 Stable90Zr 391 305 1192 Stable

Fuel cladding 3877 305 1182299Tc for alloys 771 1000 7710 00846 weak 2111times105

90Sr 391 200 782 01958 29 09388Sr 350 200 700 Stable137Cs 377 200 754 0187 0479 3017 042135Cs 300 200 600 00757 0662 23times106

133Cs 1125 200 2250 Stable

Heat sources 2543 200 5086

Br 22 100 22 Stable

Mo 3345 0257 860 Stable

Ru 2177 4578 99663 Stable

Ag 76 200 152 Stable

Cd 108 200 216 Stable

Ba 2311 0560 1295 Stable

Tb 26 3000 78 Stable

Dy 14 500 7 Stable

Rh 467 50000 233500 Stable87Rb 365 1178 4300 00817 481times1010

123Te 485 139 675 gt 92times 1016

138La 1215 180 2187 00329 144 102times1011

144Nd 3488 220 7673 190 229times1015

115In 26 1000 26 01532 441times1014

(cont)

Page 18 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

Value of one tonne of used LWR fuelseparated and reduced to metal (cont)

Value Radioactivity

Value $tonne (MevBq-s) Half life Heat

Substance Mass (gr) $gr of waste α β γ (years) Wgr142Ce 2355 028 662 15 gt 50times 1016

152Gd 142 548 778 215 14times1015

147Sm 200 200 400 225 106times1011

148Sm 167 200 334 19323 70times1015

149Sm 24 200 5 Stable151Sm 88 200 17 00196 00216 90152Sm + 154Sm 419 200 838 Stable107Pd 1371 8294 113710 00093 01476 65times106

90Y 456 1000 4560 09336 weak 64 hr152Eu 035 6000 21 00831 0122 134154Eu 1095 6000 6570 0221 0123 8601155Eu 016 6000 9 0047 0087 4753

Other solid 19297 4785583H 00034 294117 1000 00156 1254He 289 173 5 Stable85Kr 308 200 616 0687 0514 1072

Xe 5332 170 9050 Stable

Gases 5643 10671

Total fission 32131 1600 513937

products

Not counted 1936

Total 1000000 065 652066

httpbrcgove-mailsAugust10Commercial Value of 1 Metric ton of used fuelpdf with radioac-tivity data from httpwwwnndcbnlgovchart

Actinides can be recycled as fuel

Zirconium from fuel pin alloys and cladding and fission products can be recycled into new fuel pin claddingand alloys

Some radioactive elements produce sufficient heat to be usable as energy sources for example in radioisotopethermal generators for space applications These would not be isotopically separated 90Sr is 53 of thetotal strontium in fission products so heat production for all strontium is 049 Wgr 137Cs is 21 of thetotal caesium in fission products so heat production for all caesium is 0088 Wgr

Technetium is valuable for alloying with rhenium and has medical applications

Gases would be separated first then actinides then highly radioactive products This would reduce the costof separating and reducing the stable and less radioactive products

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 19

Appendix ndash Fuel and waste cycles

Actinides

IFRReprocessing

PrimaryProcessing

Disposaland sale

NonradioactiveLong half lifemostly 135Cs and 93Zr30 kg per GWe-yr665 kg per GWe-yearwith all cesium

ContinuousReprocessing

584 tonnes per GWe

Medium andshort half life

1 Tonneper GWe-year

99Tc 13 kg129I 177 kg

per GWe-yr

Usedfuel

Usedfuel

Sale

Nonradioactive

20 tonnes per GWe-yr

Enrichment

Sale

Disposaland sale

Enrichment LWR andLWR reprocessing

eventually phased out

LWRLWR

Reprocessing

Depleted uraniumstorage

Plutonium

8-10 tonnesper GWestartup

IFR

Enriched uranium

Fis

sion

pro

duct

s1

Ton

ne p

er G

We-

yr

MinedUranium

Acceleratortransmutation

Unused fuel and fissionproducts for transmutation

1 tonneper GWe-yr

Page 20 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

Appendix ndash Partitioning and Transmutation

Medium- and long-lived fission products could in principle be destroyed by transmuting them to isotopesthat are stable or have short half lives which decay to stable isotopes

The following tablea shows that 99Tc 129I 93Zr 107Pd and 135Cs can be transmuted much faster thantheir natural decay (ie T Jtrans ltlt T J12) The radiotoxicity of 107Pd and 135Cs is so small it is not worth

the bother to transmute them 93Zr can be recycled into fuel pin cladding or fuel alloying If 99Tc and129I were destroyed there could be very few remaining objections to nuclear power For 90Sr and 137CsT Jtrans gtgt T J12 so transmuting them is not interesting They are biologically active but can simply be

stored for about six half lives (180 years) after which the remaining amounts (069 and 11 kgGWe-yr) canbe discarded or sold If they are initially deposited in ldquodeep geologicalrdquo storage the containment durationrequirement for the repositories is significantly shorter by a factor of 1500 than for used LWR fuel For 79Seand 126Sn T Jtrans ltlt T J12 but T Jtrans is not sufficiently small to be interesting Although the radiotoxicity

per gram of 126Sn and 79Se is large they are produced in such small amounts that their total radiotoxicityper GWe-yr is comparable to that of the others

Isotope J decay Radiotoxicity σJ(nγ) (barns) T Jtrans (years) Mass per Transmuted

mode and T J12 Svg SvGWe-yr Thermal Fast Thermal Fast GWe-yr decay mode

90Sr289yminusrarr 90Y 1411k 1664M 014 001 1600 2200 1179 kg 91Sr

963hminusrarr 91Y137Cs

3008yminusrarr 137Ba 4187k 1152M 002 001 11000 2200 2752 kg 138Cs3341mminusrarr 138Ba

99Tc211kyminusrarr 99Ru 04 8708 43 02 51 110 2177 kg 100Tc

1546sminusrarr 100Ru126Sn

230kyminusrarr 126Sb 4936 4019 005 0005 4400 4400 0814 kg 127Sn21hminusrarr 127Sb

79Se295kyminusrarr 79Br 7478 1271 01 003 2200 7300 0170 kg 80Se is stable

93Zr153myminusrarr 93Nb 0102 2097 028 003 790 730 2056 kg 94Zr is stable

135Cs23myminusrarr 135Ba 0085 1009 13 007 170 310 1187 kg 136Cs

1304dminusrarr 136Ba107Pd

65myminusrarr 107Ag 00007 8309 03 05 730 44 6922 kg 108Pd is stable129I

157myminusrarr 129Xe 0718 4921 43 014 51 160 8853 kg 130I1236hminusrarr 130Xe

T Jtrans is the transmutation half-time for isotope J

Amounts and radioactivity from ORIGEN 22 Radiotoxicity dose factors from ICRP publication 119

This graph from the Swedish Radiation Safety Authorityb[29]

0001

001

01

1

10

100Radiotoxic inventory [Svg]

102 103 104 105 106101

TRU

FP

Uranium in nature

t[y]

shows that most of the radiotoxicity of used nuclear fuel arisesfrom the transuranics which IFR would consume and thatthe radiotoxicity of fission products is below the radiotoxic-ity of uranium ore within 200-300 years Transmuting 99Tcand 129I would reduce the long-term tail of the fission productradiotoxicity from 300 years onward by 60 The ordinateis radiotoxicity per gram of the original fission products notthe remaining fission products at the time specified by the ab-scissa Fission products are stored together stable ones arenot continuously separated from radioactive ones

aData from httpusersictpit˜pub_offlectureslns005Number_2Slessarev_1pdfbhttpwwwstralsakerhetsmyndighetenseGlobalPublikationerTidskriftNucleus2007Nucleus-4-2007pdf

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 21

Appendix ndash Worldwide limitations of alternative energy sources

Details in httpwwwphysicsucsdedu~tmurphyphys239shu_energypdf by Dr Frank Shu

Solar photovoltaic

Solar photovoltaic could in principle supply 15 TWe enough to power the Earthrsquos entire current energyeconomy using about 02 of the land area of the Earth below 60 latitude

Wind

Land-based wind cannot supply more than about 18 TWe or about 12 of the current energy economy

Ocean currents

The Kuroshio current which flows northward in the western Pacific past Taiwan and Japan has a powerof about 100 GW Assuming 50 efficiency of extraction allows about 50 GWe to be extracted The gulfstream flows twice as fast producing eight times as much power allowing about 400 GWe to be extractedExtracting significant power from ocean currents anywhere in the world would have profound effects onclimate

Coastal ocean waves

Assuming 50 efficiency of energy extraction ocean waves impinging on all the shorelines of the Earth couldprovide about 024 TWe or about 16 of the current energy economy

Geothermal

Geothermal sources cannot provide more than about 04 TWe or about 27 of the current energy economy

Tides

Energy extractable from tidal sources amounts to about 3 GWe worldwide or about 002 of the currentenergy economy It is only economically feasible in bays such as the Bay of Fundy which concentrate tidesto heights of as much as 5 meters Damming such bays has effects on the resonant frequency of nearby baysand estuaries profoundly altering currents and tides in nearby areas

Hydroelectric

The Earthrsquos land area is 148times 1012 m2 Average rainfall is 12 meters per year Water density is 103 kgm3

Total rainfall is thus about 18times 1017 kg Dropping 100 meters releases 18times 1017 kgtimes 98 ms2 times 100 m =

176times 1020 joule Spread out over a year 315times 107 s gives 56 TW Assuming 90 efficiency yields 5 TWeThe total available is less perhaps 35 TWe if polar regions are excluded Hydroelectric installations observeabout 30 capacity factor yielding total worldwide availability of about 1 TWe-yryr or about 67 of thecurrent energy economy

Total

Excluding solar photovoltaic and ocean currents alternative electricity sources could yield about 3443 TWeworldwide or about 23 of the current energy economy

Page 22 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

The amount of an isotope at a particular time can be calculated by solving the differential equation

dN(t)

dt= k minus ln 2

τN(t)

where N(t) is the amount at time t in years k is the production rate per year and τ is the half-life in yearsThe solution (assuming N(0) = 0) is

N(t) =τk

ln 2

(1minus 2minustτ

)

From this when t gtgt τ the amount of each radioactive fission product is exponentially asymptotic toa constant approximately τk ln 2 decay compensates for production The amount of these materials isproportional to the power capacity not the total amount of energy produced If stable decay products arecontinuously removed the size of the repository is roughly constant

The following table shows asymptotic fractions and asymptotic masses per GWe (not GWe-year) of shortand medium half-life fission products The fraction is measured in terms of the annual number of fissionproduct atoms which is twice the number of actinide atoms consumed

Asymptotic number fraction and mass per GWe

Isotope Fraction Mass kg Isotope Fraction Mass kg

137Cs3008yminusrarr 137Ba 2643 3072lowast 90Sr

289yminusrarr 90Y2671dminusrarr 90Zr 2398 1831

Various τ lt 1y 7999 lt7806dagger 147Pm262yminusrarr 147Sm 85852 1071

85Kr1078yminusrarr 85Rb 4226 3048Dagger 134Cs

2065yminusrarr 134Ba 1043 1185lowast

106Ru3736dminusrarr 106Rh 05773 5192 155Eu

476yminusrarr 155Gd 02266 2981125Sb

276yminusrarr 125Te 01183 1254 131I802dminusrarr 131Xe 00898 0998

lowastAssumes isotope separation of 133Cs 134Cs 135Cs and 137Cs Total caesium

accumulates at 220 kgGWe-yrdaggerThe unclassified components are assumed to have an average mass number of

115 and to have a one year half life Since they are a mixture of products with

half lives under one year the true asymptotic fraction and mass are lessDagger 85Kr is currently vented to the atmosphere

The total mass of these products exponentially approaches an asymptote of less than 5844 kg per GWeor 9934 tonnes for a 17 TWe economy If their decay products are continuously removed storage isnot a problem If not reprocessed they are diluted by their decay products and therefore their specificactivity declines sufficiently that they are not radioactively dangerous after 200ndash300 years but the volumeis proportional to kt not k In 200 years of a 17 TWe economy the amount is less than 250000 tonnes lessthan 130000 cubic yards or less than 44 feet deep on a football field Separating the streams according tohalf life reduces the 200-year stream by 85

For long-lived isotopes ie t ltlt τ on a human time scale decay does not compensate for productionApproximating 2minustτ = exp(minust ln 2τ) asymp 1minus t ln 2τ the solution is N(t) asymp kt as expected The amount ofthese fission products is in proportion to the total amount of energy produced not the power capacity

Long-lived isotopes accumulate at the rate of about 182 kg per GWe-year or about 309 tonnes per year fora 17 TWe economy 99Tc and 129I can be destroyed by transmutation but the others amounting to about124 kg per GWe-year are impractical to destroy by transmutation If other isotopes of caesium (about 147kg per GWe-year) are not separated from 135Cs the total long-term disposal stream increases to 271 kg perGWe-year (but its specific activity decreases) If stored for about 30 years before disposal about 35 kg perGWe-year of 137Cs will decay leaving about 235 kg per GWe-year or about 400 tonnes per year for a 17TWe economy if the resulting stable 137Ba were removed Surely disposal of 400 tonnes per year of theseisotopes would not be a problem

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 17

Value of one tonne of used LWR fuelseparated and reduced to metal

Value Radioactivity

Value $tonne (MevBq-s) Half life Heat

Substance Mass (gr) $gr of waste α β γ (years) Wgr238U 944100 0143 135006 42 0496 447times109

236U 3971 0143 568 45 0494 234times107

235U 7974 0143 1140 44 0657 704234U 225 0143 32 48 00532 245times105

237Np 503 0143 72 47 00294 214times106

242Pu 454 0143 65 48 00449 376times105

241Pu 111 0143 16 49 01485 1435240Pu 2302 0143 329 52 05424 656times103

239Pu 5025 0143 719 52 00516 241times104

238Pu 95 0143 14 55 00435 8774 156241Am 1084 0143 155 55 00595 432243Am 85 0143 12 53 00747 737244Cm 4 0143 1 58 00428 1811 244

Actinides 965933 0143 13812996Zr 798 305 2434 Stable94Zr 741 305 2260 Stable93Zr 718 305 2190 0010 00305 161times106

92Zr 639 305 1948 Stable91Zr 590 305 1799 Stable90Zr 391 305 1192 Stable

Fuel cladding 3877 305 1182299Tc for alloys 771 1000 7710 00846 weak 2111times105

90Sr 391 200 782 01958 29 09388Sr 350 200 700 Stable137Cs 377 200 754 0187 0479 3017 042135Cs 300 200 600 00757 0662 23times106

133Cs 1125 200 2250 Stable

Heat sources 2543 200 5086

Br 22 100 22 Stable

Mo 3345 0257 860 Stable

Ru 2177 4578 99663 Stable

Ag 76 200 152 Stable

Cd 108 200 216 Stable

Ba 2311 0560 1295 Stable

Tb 26 3000 78 Stable

Dy 14 500 7 Stable

Rh 467 50000 233500 Stable87Rb 365 1178 4300 00817 481times1010

123Te 485 139 675 gt 92times 1016

138La 1215 180 2187 00329 144 102times1011

144Nd 3488 220 7673 190 229times1015

115In 26 1000 26 01532 441times1014

(cont)

Page 18 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

Value of one tonne of used LWR fuelseparated and reduced to metal (cont)

Value Radioactivity

Value $tonne (MevBq-s) Half life Heat

Substance Mass (gr) $gr of waste α β γ (years) Wgr142Ce 2355 028 662 15 gt 50times 1016

152Gd 142 548 778 215 14times1015

147Sm 200 200 400 225 106times1011

148Sm 167 200 334 19323 70times1015

149Sm 24 200 5 Stable151Sm 88 200 17 00196 00216 90152Sm + 154Sm 419 200 838 Stable107Pd 1371 8294 113710 00093 01476 65times106

90Y 456 1000 4560 09336 weak 64 hr152Eu 035 6000 21 00831 0122 134154Eu 1095 6000 6570 0221 0123 8601155Eu 016 6000 9 0047 0087 4753

Other solid 19297 4785583H 00034 294117 1000 00156 1254He 289 173 5 Stable85Kr 308 200 616 0687 0514 1072

Xe 5332 170 9050 Stable

Gases 5643 10671

Total fission 32131 1600 513937

products

Not counted 1936

Total 1000000 065 652066

httpbrcgove-mailsAugust10Commercial Value of 1 Metric ton of used fuelpdf with radioac-tivity data from httpwwwnndcbnlgovchart

Actinides can be recycled as fuel

Zirconium from fuel pin alloys and cladding and fission products can be recycled into new fuel pin claddingand alloys

Some radioactive elements produce sufficient heat to be usable as energy sources for example in radioisotopethermal generators for space applications These would not be isotopically separated 90Sr is 53 of thetotal strontium in fission products so heat production for all strontium is 049 Wgr 137Cs is 21 of thetotal caesium in fission products so heat production for all caesium is 0088 Wgr

Technetium is valuable for alloying with rhenium and has medical applications

Gases would be separated first then actinides then highly radioactive products This would reduce the costof separating and reducing the stable and less radioactive products

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 19

Appendix ndash Fuel and waste cycles

Actinides

IFRReprocessing

PrimaryProcessing

Disposaland sale

NonradioactiveLong half lifemostly 135Cs and 93Zr30 kg per GWe-yr665 kg per GWe-yearwith all cesium

ContinuousReprocessing

584 tonnes per GWe

Medium andshort half life

1 Tonneper GWe-year

99Tc 13 kg129I 177 kg

per GWe-yr

Usedfuel

Usedfuel

Sale

Nonradioactive

20 tonnes per GWe-yr

Enrichment

Sale

Disposaland sale

Enrichment LWR andLWR reprocessing

eventually phased out

LWRLWR

Reprocessing

Depleted uraniumstorage

Plutonium

8-10 tonnesper GWestartup

IFR

Enriched uranium

Fis

sion

pro

duct

s1

Ton

ne p

er G

We-

yr

MinedUranium

Acceleratortransmutation

Unused fuel and fissionproducts for transmutation

1 tonneper GWe-yr

Page 20 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

Appendix ndash Partitioning and Transmutation

Medium- and long-lived fission products could in principle be destroyed by transmuting them to isotopesthat are stable or have short half lives which decay to stable isotopes

The following tablea shows that 99Tc 129I 93Zr 107Pd and 135Cs can be transmuted much faster thantheir natural decay (ie T Jtrans ltlt T J12) The radiotoxicity of 107Pd and 135Cs is so small it is not worth

the bother to transmute them 93Zr can be recycled into fuel pin cladding or fuel alloying If 99Tc and129I were destroyed there could be very few remaining objections to nuclear power For 90Sr and 137CsT Jtrans gtgt T J12 so transmuting them is not interesting They are biologically active but can simply be

stored for about six half lives (180 years) after which the remaining amounts (069 and 11 kgGWe-yr) canbe discarded or sold If they are initially deposited in ldquodeep geologicalrdquo storage the containment durationrequirement for the repositories is significantly shorter by a factor of 1500 than for used LWR fuel For 79Seand 126Sn T Jtrans ltlt T J12 but T Jtrans is not sufficiently small to be interesting Although the radiotoxicity

per gram of 126Sn and 79Se is large they are produced in such small amounts that their total radiotoxicityper GWe-yr is comparable to that of the others

Isotope J decay Radiotoxicity σJ(nγ) (barns) T Jtrans (years) Mass per Transmuted

mode and T J12 Svg SvGWe-yr Thermal Fast Thermal Fast GWe-yr decay mode

90Sr289yminusrarr 90Y 1411k 1664M 014 001 1600 2200 1179 kg 91Sr

963hminusrarr 91Y137Cs

3008yminusrarr 137Ba 4187k 1152M 002 001 11000 2200 2752 kg 138Cs3341mminusrarr 138Ba

99Tc211kyminusrarr 99Ru 04 8708 43 02 51 110 2177 kg 100Tc

1546sminusrarr 100Ru126Sn

230kyminusrarr 126Sb 4936 4019 005 0005 4400 4400 0814 kg 127Sn21hminusrarr 127Sb

79Se295kyminusrarr 79Br 7478 1271 01 003 2200 7300 0170 kg 80Se is stable

93Zr153myminusrarr 93Nb 0102 2097 028 003 790 730 2056 kg 94Zr is stable

135Cs23myminusrarr 135Ba 0085 1009 13 007 170 310 1187 kg 136Cs

1304dminusrarr 136Ba107Pd

65myminusrarr 107Ag 00007 8309 03 05 730 44 6922 kg 108Pd is stable129I

157myminusrarr 129Xe 0718 4921 43 014 51 160 8853 kg 130I1236hminusrarr 130Xe

T Jtrans is the transmutation half-time for isotope J

Amounts and radioactivity from ORIGEN 22 Radiotoxicity dose factors from ICRP publication 119

This graph from the Swedish Radiation Safety Authorityb[29]

0001

001

01

1

10

100Radiotoxic inventory [Svg]

102 103 104 105 106101

TRU

FP

Uranium in nature

t[y]

shows that most of the radiotoxicity of used nuclear fuel arisesfrom the transuranics which IFR would consume and thatthe radiotoxicity of fission products is below the radiotoxic-ity of uranium ore within 200-300 years Transmuting 99Tcand 129I would reduce the long-term tail of the fission productradiotoxicity from 300 years onward by 60 The ordinateis radiotoxicity per gram of the original fission products notthe remaining fission products at the time specified by the ab-scissa Fission products are stored together stable ones arenot continuously separated from radioactive ones

aData from httpusersictpit˜pub_offlectureslns005Number_2Slessarev_1pdfbhttpwwwstralsakerhetsmyndighetenseGlobalPublikationerTidskriftNucleus2007Nucleus-4-2007pdf

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 21

Appendix ndash Worldwide limitations of alternative energy sources

Details in httpwwwphysicsucsdedu~tmurphyphys239shu_energypdf by Dr Frank Shu

Solar photovoltaic

Solar photovoltaic could in principle supply 15 TWe enough to power the Earthrsquos entire current energyeconomy using about 02 of the land area of the Earth below 60 latitude

Wind

Land-based wind cannot supply more than about 18 TWe or about 12 of the current energy economy

Ocean currents

The Kuroshio current which flows northward in the western Pacific past Taiwan and Japan has a powerof about 100 GW Assuming 50 efficiency of extraction allows about 50 GWe to be extracted The gulfstream flows twice as fast producing eight times as much power allowing about 400 GWe to be extractedExtracting significant power from ocean currents anywhere in the world would have profound effects onclimate

Coastal ocean waves

Assuming 50 efficiency of energy extraction ocean waves impinging on all the shorelines of the Earth couldprovide about 024 TWe or about 16 of the current energy economy

Geothermal

Geothermal sources cannot provide more than about 04 TWe or about 27 of the current energy economy

Tides

Energy extractable from tidal sources amounts to about 3 GWe worldwide or about 002 of the currentenergy economy It is only economically feasible in bays such as the Bay of Fundy which concentrate tidesto heights of as much as 5 meters Damming such bays has effects on the resonant frequency of nearby baysand estuaries profoundly altering currents and tides in nearby areas

Hydroelectric

The Earthrsquos land area is 148times 1012 m2 Average rainfall is 12 meters per year Water density is 103 kgm3

Total rainfall is thus about 18times 1017 kg Dropping 100 meters releases 18times 1017 kgtimes 98 ms2 times 100 m =

176times 1020 joule Spread out over a year 315times 107 s gives 56 TW Assuming 90 efficiency yields 5 TWeThe total available is less perhaps 35 TWe if polar regions are excluded Hydroelectric installations observeabout 30 capacity factor yielding total worldwide availability of about 1 TWe-yryr or about 67 of thecurrent energy economy

Total

Excluding solar photovoltaic and ocean currents alternative electricity sources could yield about 3443 TWeworldwide or about 23 of the current energy economy

Page 22 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

Value of one tonne of used LWR fuelseparated and reduced to metal

Value Radioactivity

Value $tonne (MevBq-s) Half life Heat

Substance Mass (gr) $gr of waste α β γ (years) Wgr238U 944100 0143 135006 42 0496 447times109

236U 3971 0143 568 45 0494 234times107

235U 7974 0143 1140 44 0657 704234U 225 0143 32 48 00532 245times105

237Np 503 0143 72 47 00294 214times106

242Pu 454 0143 65 48 00449 376times105

241Pu 111 0143 16 49 01485 1435240Pu 2302 0143 329 52 05424 656times103

239Pu 5025 0143 719 52 00516 241times104

238Pu 95 0143 14 55 00435 8774 156241Am 1084 0143 155 55 00595 432243Am 85 0143 12 53 00747 737244Cm 4 0143 1 58 00428 1811 244

Actinides 965933 0143 13812996Zr 798 305 2434 Stable94Zr 741 305 2260 Stable93Zr 718 305 2190 0010 00305 161times106

92Zr 639 305 1948 Stable91Zr 590 305 1799 Stable90Zr 391 305 1192 Stable

Fuel cladding 3877 305 1182299Tc for alloys 771 1000 7710 00846 weak 2111times105

90Sr 391 200 782 01958 29 09388Sr 350 200 700 Stable137Cs 377 200 754 0187 0479 3017 042135Cs 300 200 600 00757 0662 23times106

133Cs 1125 200 2250 Stable

Heat sources 2543 200 5086

Br 22 100 22 Stable

Mo 3345 0257 860 Stable

Ru 2177 4578 99663 Stable

Ag 76 200 152 Stable

Cd 108 200 216 Stable

Ba 2311 0560 1295 Stable

Tb 26 3000 78 Stable

Dy 14 500 7 Stable

Rh 467 50000 233500 Stable87Rb 365 1178 4300 00817 481times1010

123Te 485 139 675 gt 92times 1016

138La 1215 180 2187 00329 144 102times1011

144Nd 3488 220 7673 190 229times1015

115In 26 1000 26 01532 441times1014

(cont)

Page 18 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

Value of one tonne of used LWR fuelseparated and reduced to metal (cont)

Value Radioactivity

Value $tonne (MevBq-s) Half life Heat

Substance Mass (gr) $gr of waste α β γ (years) Wgr142Ce 2355 028 662 15 gt 50times 1016

152Gd 142 548 778 215 14times1015

147Sm 200 200 400 225 106times1011

148Sm 167 200 334 19323 70times1015

149Sm 24 200 5 Stable151Sm 88 200 17 00196 00216 90152Sm + 154Sm 419 200 838 Stable107Pd 1371 8294 113710 00093 01476 65times106

90Y 456 1000 4560 09336 weak 64 hr152Eu 035 6000 21 00831 0122 134154Eu 1095 6000 6570 0221 0123 8601155Eu 016 6000 9 0047 0087 4753

Other solid 19297 4785583H 00034 294117 1000 00156 1254He 289 173 5 Stable85Kr 308 200 616 0687 0514 1072

Xe 5332 170 9050 Stable

Gases 5643 10671

Total fission 32131 1600 513937

products

Not counted 1936

Total 1000000 065 652066

httpbrcgove-mailsAugust10Commercial Value of 1 Metric ton of used fuelpdf with radioac-tivity data from httpwwwnndcbnlgovchart

Actinides can be recycled as fuel

Zirconium from fuel pin alloys and cladding and fission products can be recycled into new fuel pin claddingand alloys

Some radioactive elements produce sufficient heat to be usable as energy sources for example in radioisotopethermal generators for space applications These would not be isotopically separated 90Sr is 53 of thetotal strontium in fission products so heat production for all strontium is 049 Wgr 137Cs is 21 of thetotal caesium in fission products so heat production for all caesium is 0088 Wgr

Technetium is valuable for alloying with rhenium and has medical applications

Gases would be separated first then actinides then highly radioactive products This would reduce the costof separating and reducing the stable and less radioactive products

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 19

Appendix ndash Fuel and waste cycles

Actinides

IFRReprocessing

PrimaryProcessing

Disposaland sale

NonradioactiveLong half lifemostly 135Cs and 93Zr30 kg per GWe-yr665 kg per GWe-yearwith all cesium

ContinuousReprocessing

584 tonnes per GWe

Medium andshort half life

1 Tonneper GWe-year

99Tc 13 kg129I 177 kg

per GWe-yr

Usedfuel

Usedfuel

Sale

Nonradioactive

20 tonnes per GWe-yr

Enrichment

Sale

Disposaland sale

Enrichment LWR andLWR reprocessing

eventually phased out

LWRLWR

Reprocessing

Depleted uraniumstorage

Plutonium

8-10 tonnesper GWestartup

IFR

Enriched uranium

Fis

sion

pro

duct

s1

Ton

ne p

er G

We-

yr

MinedUranium

Acceleratortransmutation

Unused fuel and fissionproducts for transmutation

1 tonneper GWe-yr

Page 20 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

Appendix ndash Partitioning and Transmutation

Medium- and long-lived fission products could in principle be destroyed by transmuting them to isotopesthat are stable or have short half lives which decay to stable isotopes

The following tablea shows that 99Tc 129I 93Zr 107Pd and 135Cs can be transmuted much faster thantheir natural decay (ie T Jtrans ltlt T J12) The radiotoxicity of 107Pd and 135Cs is so small it is not worth

the bother to transmute them 93Zr can be recycled into fuel pin cladding or fuel alloying If 99Tc and129I were destroyed there could be very few remaining objections to nuclear power For 90Sr and 137CsT Jtrans gtgt T J12 so transmuting them is not interesting They are biologically active but can simply be

stored for about six half lives (180 years) after which the remaining amounts (069 and 11 kgGWe-yr) canbe discarded or sold If they are initially deposited in ldquodeep geologicalrdquo storage the containment durationrequirement for the repositories is significantly shorter by a factor of 1500 than for used LWR fuel For 79Seand 126Sn T Jtrans ltlt T J12 but T Jtrans is not sufficiently small to be interesting Although the radiotoxicity

per gram of 126Sn and 79Se is large they are produced in such small amounts that their total radiotoxicityper GWe-yr is comparable to that of the others

Isotope J decay Radiotoxicity σJ(nγ) (barns) T Jtrans (years) Mass per Transmuted

mode and T J12 Svg SvGWe-yr Thermal Fast Thermal Fast GWe-yr decay mode

90Sr289yminusrarr 90Y 1411k 1664M 014 001 1600 2200 1179 kg 91Sr

963hminusrarr 91Y137Cs

3008yminusrarr 137Ba 4187k 1152M 002 001 11000 2200 2752 kg 138Cs3341mminusrarr 138Ba

99Tc211kyminusrarr 99Ru 04 8708 43 02 51 110 2177 kg 100Tc

1546sminusrarr 100Ru126Sn

230kyminusrarr 126Sb 4936 4019 005 0005 4400 4400 0814 kg 127Sn21hminusrarr 127Sb

79Se295kyminusrarr 79Br 7478 1271 01 003 2200 7300 0170 kg 80Se is stable

93Zr153myminusrarr 93Nb 0102 2097 028 003 790 730 2056 kg 94Zr is stable

135Cs23myminusrarr 135Ba 0085 1009 13 007 170 310 1187 kg 136Cs

1304dminusrarr 136Ba107Pd

65myminusrarr 107Ag 00007 8309 03 05 730 44 6922 kg 108Pd is stable129I

157myminusrarr 129Xe 0718 4921 43 014 51 160 8853 kg 130I1236hminusrarr 130Xe

T Jtrans is the transmutation half-time for isotope J

Amounts and radioactivity from ORIGEN 22 Radiotoxicity dose factors from ICRP publication 119

This graph from the Swedish Radiation Safety Authorityb[29]

0001

001

01

1

10

100Radiotoxic inventory [Svg]

102 103 104 105 106101

TRU

FP

Uranium in nature

t[y]

shows that most of the radiotoxicity of used nuclear fuel arisesfrom the transuranics which IFR would consume and thatthe radiotoxicity of fission products is below the radiotoxic-ity of uranium ore within 200-300 years Transmuting 99Tcand 129I would reduce the long-term tail of the fission productradiotoxicity from 300 years onward by 60 The ordinateis radiotoxicity per gram of the original fission products notthe remaining fission products at the time specified by the ab-scissa Fission products are stored together stable ones arenot continuously separated from radioactive ones

aData from httpusersictpit˜pub_offlectureslns005Number_2Slessarev_1pdfbhttpwwwstralsakerhetsmyndighetenseGlobalPublikationerTidskriftNucleus2007Nucleus-4-2007pdf

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 21

Appendix ndash Worldwide limitations of alternative energy sources

Details in httpwwwphysicsucsdedu~tmurphyphys239shu_energypdf by Dr Frank Shu

Solar photovoltaic

Solar photovoltaic could in principle supply 15 TWe enough to power the Earthrsquos entire current energyeconomy using about 02 of the land area of the Earth below 60 latitude

Wind

Land-based wind cannot supply more than about 18 TWe or about 12 of the current energy economy

Ocean currents

The Kuroshio current which flows northward in the western Pacific past Taiwan and Japan has a powerof about 100 GW Assuming 50 efficiency of extraction allows about 50 GWe to be extracted The gulfstream flows twice as fast producing eight times as much power allowing about 400 GWe to be extractedExtracting significant power from ocean currents anywhere in the world would have profound effects onclimate

Coastal ocean waves

Assuming 50 efficiency of energy extraction ocean waves impinging on all the shorelines of the Earth couldprovide about 024 TWe or about 16 of the current energy economy

Geothermal

Geothermal sources cannot provide more than about 04 TWe or about 27 of the current energy economy

Tides

Energy extractable from tidal sources amounts to about 3 GWe worldwide or about 002 of the currentenergy economy It is only economically feasible in bays such as the Bay of Fundy which concentrate tidesto heights of as much as 5 meters Damming such bays has effects on the resonant frequency of nearby baysand estuaries profoundly altering currents and tides in nearby areas

Hydroelectric

The Earthrsquos land area is 148times 1012 m2 Average rainfall is 12 meters per year Water density is 103 kgm3

Total rainfall is thus about 18times 1017 kg Dropping 100 meters releases 18times 1017 kgtimes 98 ms2 times 100 m =

176times 1020 joule Spread out over a year 315times 107 s gives 56 TW Assuming 90 efficiency yields 5 TWeThe total available is less perhaps 35 TWe if polar regions are excluded Hydroelectric installations observeabout 30 capacity factor yielding total worldwide availability of about 1 TWe-yryr or about 67 of thecurrent energy economy

Total

Excluding solar photovoltaic and ocean currents alternative electricity sources could yield about 3443 TWeworldwide or about 23 of the current energy economy

Page 22 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

Value of one tonne of used LWR fuelseparated and reduced to metal (cont)

Value Radioactivity

Value $tonne (MevBq-s) Half life Heat

Substance Mass (gr) $gr of waste α β γ (years) Wgr142Ce 2355 028 662 15 gt 50times 1016

152Gd 142 548 778 215 14times1015

147Sm 200 200 400 225 106times1011

148Sm 167 200 334 19323 70times1015

149Sm 24 200 5 Stable151Sm 88 200 17 00196 00216 90152Sm + 154Sm 419 200 838 Stable107Pd 1371 8294 113710 00093 01476 65times106

90Y 456 1000 4560 09336 weak 64 hr152Eu 035 6000 21 00831 0122 134154Eu 1095 6000 6570 0221 0123 8601155Eu 016 6000 9 0047 0087 4753

Other solid 19297 4785583H 00034 294117 1000 00156 1254He 289 173 5 Stable85Kr 308 200 616 0687 0514 1072

Xe 5332 170 9050 Stable

Gases 5643 10671

Total fission 32131 1600 513937

products

Not counted 1936

Total 1000000 065 652066

httpbrcgove-mailsAugust10Commercial Value of 1 Metric ton of used fuelpdf with radioac-tivity data from httpwwwnndcbnlgovchart

Actinides can be recycled as fuel

Zirconium from fuel pin alloys and cladding and fission products can be recycled into new fuel pin claddingand alloys

Some radioactive elements produce sufficient heat to be usable as energy sources for example in radioisotopethermal generators for space applications These would not be isotopically separated 90Sr is 53 of thetotal strontium in fission products so heat production for all strontium is 049 Wgr 137Cs is 21 of thetotal caesium in fission products so heat production for all caesium is 0088 Wgr

Technetium is valuable for alloying with rhenium and has medical applications

Gases would be separated first then actinides then highly radioactive products This would reduce the costof separating and reducing the stable and less radioactive products

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 19

Appendix ndash Fuel and waste cycles

Actinides

IFRReprocessing

PrimaryProcessing

Disposaland sale

NonradioactiveLong half lifemostly 135Cs and 93Zr30 kg per GWe-yr665 kg per GWe-yearwith all cesium

ContinuousReprocessing

584 tonnes per GWe

Medium andshort half life

1 Tonneper GWe-year

99Tc 13 kg129I 177 kg

per GWe-yr

Usedfuel

Usedfuel

Sale

Nonradioactive

20 tonnes per GWe-yr

Enrichment

Sale

Disposaland sale

Enrichment LWR andLWR reprocessing

eventually phased out

LWRLWR

Reprocessing

Depleted uraniumstorage

Plutonium

8-10 tonnesper GWestartup

IFR

Enriched uranium

Fis

sion

pro

duct

s1

Ton

ne p

er G

We-

yr

MinedUranium

Acceleratortransmutation

Unused fuel and fissionproducts for transmutation

1 tonneper GWe-yr

Page 20 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

Appendix ndash Partitioning and Transmutation

Medium- and long-lived fission products could in principle be destroyed by transmuting them to isotopesthat are stable or have short half lives which decay to stable isotopes

The following tablea shows that 99Tc 129I 93Zr 107Pd and 135Cs can be transmuted much faster thantheir natural decay (ie T Jtrans ltlt T J12) The radiotoxicity of 107Pd and 135Cs is so small it is not worth

the bother to transmute them 93Zr can be recycled into fuel pin cladding or fuel alloying If 99Tc and129I were destroyed there could be very few remaining objections to nuclear power For 90Sr and 137CsT Jtrans gtgt T J12 so transmuting them is not interesting They are biologically active but can simply be

stored for about six half lives (180 years) after which the remaining amounts (069 and 11 kgGWe-yr) canbe discarded or sold If they are initially deposited in ldquodeep geologicalrdquo storage the containment durationrequirement for the repositories is significantly shorter by a factor of 1500 than for used LWR fuel For 79Seand 126Sn T Jtrans ltlt T J12 but T Jtrans is not sufficiently small to be interesting Although the radiotoxicity

per gram of 126Sn and 79Se is large they are produced in such small amounts that their total radiotoxicityper GWe-yr is comparable to that of the others

Isotope J decay Radiotoxicity σJ(nγ) (barns) T Jtrans (years) Mass per Transmuted

mode and T J12 Svg SvGWe-yr Thermal Fast Thermal Fast GWe-yr decay mode

90Sr289yminusrarr 90Y 1411k 1664M 014 001 1600 2200 1179 kg 91Sr

963hminusrarr 91Y137Cs

3008yminusrarr 137Ba 4187k 1152M 002 001 11000 2200 2752 kg 138Cs3341mminusrarr 138Ba

99Tc211kyminusrarr 99Ru 04 8708 43 02 51 110 2177 kg 100Tc

1546sminusrarr 100Ru126Sn

230kyminusrarr 126Sb 4936 4019 005 0005 4400 4400 0814 kg 127Sn21hminusrarr 127Sb

79Se295kyminusrarr 79Br 7478 1271 01 003 2200 7300 0170 kg 80Se is stable

93Zr153myminusrarr 93Nb 0102 2097 028 003 790 730 2056 kg 94Zr is stable

135Cs23myminusrarr 135Ba 0085 1009 13 007 170 310 1187 kg 136Cs

1304dminusrarr 136Ba107Pd

65myminusrarr 107Ag 00007 8309 03 05 730 44 6922 kg 108Pd is stable129I

157myminusrarr 129Xe 0718 4921 43 014 51 160 8853 kg 130I1236hminusrarr 130Xe

T Jtrans is the transmutation half-time for isotope J

Amounts and radioactivity from ORIGEN 22 Radiotoxicity dose factors from ICRP publication 119

This graph from the Swedish Radiation Safety Authorityb[29]

0001

001

01

1

10

100Radiotoxic inventory [Svg]

102 103 104 105 106101

TRU

FP

Uranium in nature

t[y]

shows that most of the radiotoxicity of used nuclear fuel arisesfrom the transuranics which IFR would consume and thatthe radiotoxicity of fission products is below the radiotoxic-ity of uranium ore within 200-300 years Transmuting 99Tcand 129I would reduce the long-term tail of the fission productradiotoxicity from 300 years onward by 60 The ordinateis radiotoxicity per gram of the original fission products notthe remaining fission products at the time specified by the ab-scissa Fission products are stored together stable ones arenot continuously separated from radioactive ones

aData from httpusersictpit˜pub_offlectureslns005Number_2Slessarev_1pdfbhttpwwwstralsakerhetsmyndighetenseGlobalPublikationerTidskriftNucleus2007Nucleus-4-2007pdf

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 21

Appendix ndash Worldwide limitations of alternative energy sources

Details in httpwwwphysicsucsdedu~tmurphyphys239shu_energypdf by Dr Frank Shu

Solar photovoltaic

Solar photovoltaic could in principle supply 15 TWe enough to power the Earthrsquos entire current energyeconomy using about 02 of the land area of the Earth below 60 latitude

Wind

Land-based wind cannot supply more than about 18 TWe or about 12 of the current energy economy

Ocean currents

The Kuroshio current which flows northward in the western Pacific past Taiwan and Japan has a powerof about 100 GW Assuming 50 efficiency of extraction allows about 50 GWe to be extracted The gulfstream flows twice as fast producing eight times as much power allowing about 400 GWe to be extractedExtracting significant power from ocean currents anywhere in the world would have profound effects onclimate

Coastal ocean waves

Assuming 50 efficiency of energy extraction ocean waves impinging on all the shorelines of the Earth couldprovide about 024 TWe or about 16 of the current energy economy

Geothermal

Geothermal sources cannot provide more than about 04 TWe or about 27 of the current energy economy

Tides

Energy extractable from tidal sources amounts to about 3 GWe worldwide or about 002 of the currentenergy economy It is only economically feasible in bays such as the Bay of Fundy which concentrate tidesto heights of as much as 5 meters Damming such bays has effects on the resonant frequency of nearby baysand estuaries profoundly altering currents and tides in nearby areas

Hydroelectric

The Earthrsquos land area is 148times 1012 m2 Average rainfall is 12 meters per year Water density is 103 kgm3

Total rainfall is thus about 18times 1017 kg Dropping 100 meters releases 18times 1017 kgtimes 98 ms2 times 100 m =

176times 1020 joule Spread out over a year 315times 107 s gives 56 TW Assuming 90 efficiency yields 5 TWeThe total available is less perhaps 35 TWe if polar regions are excluded Hydroelectric installations observeabout 30 capacity factor yielding total worldwide availability of about 1 TWe-yryr or about 67 of thecurrent energy economy

Total

Excluding solar photovoltaic and ocean currents alternative electricity sources could yield about 3443 TWeworldwide or about 23 of the current energy economy

Page 22 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

Appendix ndash Fuel and waste cycles

Actinides

IFRReprocessing

PrimaryProcessing

Disposaland sale

NonradioactiveLong half lifemostly 135Cs and 93Zr30 kg per GWe-yr665 kg per GWe-yearwith all cesium

ContinuousReprocessing

584 tonnes per GWe

Medium andshort half life

1 Tonneper GWe-year

99Tc 13 kg129I 177 kg

per GWe-yr

Usedfuel

Usedfuel

Sale

Nonradioactive

20 tonnes per GWe-yr

Enrichment

Sale

Disposaland sale

Enrichment LWR andLWR reprocessing

eventually phased out

LWRLWR

Reprocessing

Depleted uraniumstorage

Plutonium

8-10 tonnesper GWestartup

IFR

Enriched uranium

Fis

sion

pro

duct

s1

Ton

ne p

er G

We-

yr

MinedUranium

Acceleratortransmutation

Unused fuel and fissionproducts for transmutation

1 tonneper GWe-yr

Page 20 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

Appendix ndash Partitioning and Transmutation

Medium- and long-lived fission products could in principle be destroyed by transmuting them to isotopesthat are stable or have short half lives which decay to stable isotopes

The following tablea shows that 99Tc 129I 93Zr 107Pd and 135Cs can be transmuted much faster thantheir natural decay (ie T Jtrans ltlt T J12) The radiotoxicity of 107Pd and 135Cs is so small it is not worth

the bother to transmute them 93Zr can be recycled into fuel pin cladding or fuel alloying If 99Tc and129I were destroyed there could be very few remaining objections to nuclear power For 90Sr and 137CsT Jtrans gtgt T J12 so transmuting them is not interesting They are biologically active but can simply be

stored for about six half lives (180 years) after which the remaining amounts (069 and 11 kgGWe-yr) canbe discarded or sold If they are initially deposited in ldquodeep geologicalrdquo storage the containment durationrequirement for the repositories is significantly shorter by a factor of 1500 than for used LWR fuel For 79Seand 126Sn T Jtrans ltlt T J12 but T Jtrans is not sufficiently small to be interesting Although the radiotoxicity

per gram of 126Sn and 79Se is large they are produced in such small amounts that their total radiotoxicityper GWe-yr is comparable to that of the others

Isotope J decay Radiotoxicity σJ(nγ) (barns) T Jtrans (years) Mass per Transmuted

mode and T J12 Svg SvGWe-yr Thermal Fast Thermal Fast GWe-yr decay mode

90Sr289yminusrarr 90Y 1411k 1664M 014 001 1600 2200 1179 kg 91Sr

963hminusrarr 91Y137Cs

3008yminusrarr 137Ba 4187k 1152M 002 001 11000 2200 2752 kg 138Cs3341mminusrarr 138Ba

99Tc211kyminusrarr 99Ru 04 8708 43 02 51 110 2177 kg 100Tc

1546sminusrarr 100Ru126Sn

230kyminusrarr 126Sb 4936 4019 005 0005 4400 4400 0814 kg 127Sn21hminusrarr 127Sb

79Se295kyminusrarr 79Br 7478 1271 01 003 2200 7300 0170 kg 80Se is stable

93Zr153myminusrarr 93Nb 0102 2097 028 003 790 730 2056 kg 94Zr is stable

135Cs23myminusrarr 135Ba 0085 1009 13 007 170 310 1187 kg 136Cs

1304dminusrarr 136Ba107Pd

65myminusrarr 107Ag 00007 8309 03 05 730 44 6922 kg 108Pd is stable129I

157myminusrarr 129Xe 0718 4921 43 014 51 160 8853 kg 130I1236hminusrarr 130Xe

T Jtrans is the transmutation half-time for isotope J

Amounts and radioactivity from ORIGEN 22 Radiotoxicity dose factors from ICRP publication 119

This graph from the Swedish Radiation Safety Authorityb[29]

0001

001

01

1

10

100Radiotoxic inventory [Svg]

102 103 104 105 106101

TRU

FP

Uranium in nature

t[y]

shows that most of the radiotoxicity of used nuclear fuel arisesfrom the transuranics which IFR would consume and thatthe radiotoxicity of fission products is below the radiotoxic-ity of uranium ore within 200-300 years Transmuting 99Tcand 129I would reduce the long-term tail of the fission productradiotoxicity from 300 years onward by 60 The ordinateis radiotoxicity per gram of the original fission products notthe remaining fission products at the time specified by the ab-scissa Fission products are stored together stable ones arenot continuously separated from radioactive ones

aData from httpusersictpit˜pub_offlectureslns005Number_2Slessarev_1pdfbhttpwwwstralsakerhetsmyndighetenseGlobalPublikationerTidskriftNucleus2007Nucleus-4-2007pdf

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 21

Appendix ndash Worldwide limitations of alternative energy sources

Details in httpwwwphysicsucsdedu~tmurphyphys239shu_energypdf by Dr Frank Shu

Solar photovoltaic

Solar photovoltaic could in principle supply 15 TWe enough to power the Earthrsquos entire current energyeconomy using about 02 of the land area of the Earth below 60 latitude

Wind

Land-based wind cannot supply more than about 18 TWe or about 12 of the current energy economy

Ocean currents

The Kuroshio current which flows northward in the western Pacific past Taiwan and Japan has a powerof about 100 GW Assuming 50 efficiency of extraction allows about 50 GWe to be extracted The gulfstream flows twice as fast producing eight times as much power allowing about 400 GWe to be extractedExtracting significant power from ocean currents anywhere in the world would have profound effects onclimate

Coastal ocean waves

Assuming 50 efficiency of energy extraction ocean waves impinging on all the shorelines of the Earth couldprovide about 024 TWe or about 16 of the current energy economy

Geothermal

Geothermal sources cannot provide more than about 04 TWe or about 27 of the current energy economy

Tides

Energy extractable from tidal sources amounts to about 3 GWe worldwide or about 002 of the currentenergy economy It is only economically feasible in bays such as the Bay of Fundy which concentrate tidesto heights of as much as 5 meters Damming such bays has effects on the resonant frequency of nearby baysand estuaries profoundly altering currents and tides in nearby areas

Hydroelectric

The Earthrsquos land area is 148times 1012 m2 Average rainfall is 12 meters per year Water density is 103 kgm3

Total rainfall is thus about 18times 1017 kg Dropping 100 meters releases 18times 1017 kgtimes 98 ms2 times 100 m =

176times 1020 joule Spread out over a year 315times 107 s gives 56 TW Assuming 90 efficiency yields 5 TWeThe total available is less perhaps 35 TWe if polar regions are excluded Hydroelectric installations observeabout 30 capacity factor yielding total worldwide availability of about 1 TWe-yryr or about 67 of thecurrent energy economy

Total

Excluding solar photovoltaic and ocean currents alternative electricity sources could yield about 3443 TWeworldwide or about 23 of the current energy economy

Page 22 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

Appendix ndash Partitioning and Transmutation

Medium- and long-lived fission products could in principle be destroyed by transmuting them to isotopesthat are stable or have short half lives which decay to stable isotopes

The following tablea shows that 99Tc 129I 93Zr 107Pd and 135Cs can be transmuted much faster thantheir natural decay (ie T Jtrans ltlt T J12) The radiotoxicity of 107Pd and 135Cs is so small it is not worth

the bother to transmute them 93Zr can be recycled into fuel pin cladding or fuel alloying If 99Tc and129I were destroyed there could be very few remaining objections to nuclear power For 90Sr and 137CsT Jtrans gtgt T J12 so transmuting them is not interesting They are biologically active but can simply be

stored for about six half lives (180 years) after which the remaining amounts (069 and 11 kgGWe-yr) canbe discarded or sold If they are initially deposited in ldquodeep geologicalrdquo storage the containment durationrequirement for the repositories is significantly shorter by a factor of 1500 than for used LWR fuel For 79Seand 126Sn T Jtrans ltlt T J12 but T Jtrans is not sufficiently small to be interesting Although the radiotoxicity

per gram of 126Sn and 79Se is large they are produced in such small amounts that their total radiotoxicityper GWe-yr is comparable to that of the others

Isotope J decay Radiotoxicity σJ(nγ) (barns) T Jtrans (years) Mass per Transmuted

mode and T J12 Svg SvGWe-yr Thermal Fast Thermal Fast GWe-yr decay mode

90Sr289yminusrarr 90Y 1411k 1664M 014 001 1600 2200 1179 kg 91Sr

963hminusrarr 91Y137Cs

3008yminusrarr 137Ba 4187k 1152M 002 001 11000 2200 2752 kg 138Cs3341mminusrarr 138Ba

99Tc211kyminusrarr 99Ru 04 8708 43 02 51 110 2177 kg 100Tc

1546sminusrarr 100Ru126Sn

230kyminusrarr 126Sb 4936 4019 005 0005 4400 4400 0814 kg 127Sn21hminusrarr 127Sb

79Se295kyminusrarr 79Br 7478 1271 01 003 2200 7300 0170 kg 80Se is stable

93Zr153myminusrarr 93Nb 0102 2097 028 003 790 730 2056 kg 94Zr is stable

135Cs23myminusrarr 135Ba 0085 1009 13 007 170 310 1187 kg 136Cs

1304dminusrarr 136Ba107Pd

65myminusrarr 107Ag 00007 8309 03 05 730 44 6922 kg 108Pd is stable129I

157myminusrarr 129Xe 0718 4921 43 014 51 160 8853 kg 130I1236hminusrarr 130Xe

T Jtrans is the transmutation half-time for isotope J

Amounts and radioactivity from ORIGEN 22 Radiotoxicity dose factors from ICRP publication 119

This graph from the Swedish Radiation Safety Authorityb[29]

0001

001

01

1

10

100Radiotoxic inventory [Svg]

102 103 104 105 106101

TRU

FP

Uranium in nature

t[y]

shows that most of the radiotoxicity of used nuclear fuel arisesfrom the transuranics which IFR would consume and thatthe radiotoxicity of fission products is below the radiotoxic-ity of uranium ore within 200-300 years Transmuting 99Tcand 129I would reduce the long-term tail of the fission productradiotoxicity from 300 years onward by 60 The ordinateis radiotoxicity per gram of the original fission products notthe remaining fission products at the time specified by the ab-scissa Fission products are stored together stable ones arenot continuously separated from radioactive ones

aData from httpusersictpit˜pub_offlectureslns005Number_2Slessarev_1pdfbhttpwwwstralsakerhetsmyndighetenseGlobalPublikationerTidskriftNucleus2007Nucleus-4-2007pdf

27 July 2017 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved Page 21

Appendix ndash Worldwide limitations of alternative energy sources

Details in httpwwwphysicsucsdedu~tmurphyphys239shu_energypdf by Dr Frank Shu

Solar photovoltaic

Solar photovoltaic could in principle supply 15 TWe enough to power the Earthrsquos entire current energyeconomy using about 02 of the land area of the Earth below 60 latitude

Wind

Land-based wind cannot supply more than about 18 TWe or about 12 of the current energy economy

Ocean currents

The Kuroshio current which flows northward in the western Pacific past Taiwan and Japan has a powerof about 100 GW Assuming 50 efficiency of extraction allows about 50 GWe to be extracted The gulfstream flows twice as fast producing eight times as much power allowing about 400 GWe to be extractedExtracting significant power from ocean currents anywhere in the world would have profound effects onclimate

Coastal ocean waves

Assuming 50 efficiency of energy extraction ocean waves impinging on all the shorelines of the Earth couldprovide about 024 TWe or about 16 of the current energy economy

Geothermal

Geothermal sources cannot provide more than about 04 TWe or about 27 of the current energy economy

Tides

Energy extractable from tidal sources amounts to about 3 GWe worldwide or about 002 of the currentenergy economy It is only economically feasible in bays such as the Bay of Fundy which concentrate tidesto heights of as much as 5 meters Damming such bays has effects on the resonant frequency of nearby baysand estuaries profoundly altering currents and tides in nearby areas

Hydroelectric

The Earthrsquos land area is 148times 1012 m2 Average rainfall is 12 meters per year Water density is 103 kgm3

Total rainfall is thus about 18times 1017 kg Dropping 100 meters releases 18times 1017 kgtimes 98 ms2 times 100 m =

176times 1020 joule Spread out over a year 315times 107 s gives 56 TW Assuming 90 efficiency yields 5 TWeThe total available is less perhaps 35 TWe if polar regions are excluded Hydroelectric installations observeabout 30 capacity factor yielding total worldwide availability of about 1 TWe-yryr or about 67 of thecurrent energy economy

Total

Excluding solar photovoltaic and ocean currents alternative electricity sources could yield about 3443 TWeworldwide or about 23 of the current energy economy

Page 22 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017

Appendix ndash Worldwide limitations of alternative energy sources

Details in httpwwwphysicsucsdedu~tmurphyphys239shu_energypdf by Dr Frank Shu

Solar photovoltaic

Solar photovoltaic could in principle supply 15 TWe enough to power the Earthrsquos entire current energyeconomy using about 02 of the land area of the Earth below 60 latitude

Wind

Land-based wind cannot supply more than about 18 TWe or about 12 of the current energy economy

Ocean currents

The Kuroshio current which flows northward in the western Pacific past Taiwan and Japan has a powerof about 100 GW Assuming 50 efficiency of extraction allows about 50 GWe to be extracted The gulfstream flows twice as fast producing eight times as much power allowing about 400 GWe to be extractedExtracting significant power from ocean currents anywhere in the world would have profound effects onclimate

Coastal ocean waves

Assuming 50 efficiency of energy extraction ocean waves impinging on all the shorelines of the Earth couldprovide about 024 TWe or about 16 of the current energy economy

Geothermal

Geothermal sources cannot provide more than about 04 TWe or about 27 of the current energy economy

Tides

Energy extractable from tidal sources amounts to about 3 GWe worldwide or about 002 of the currentenergy economy It is only economically feasible in bays such as the Bay of Fundy which concentrate tidesto heights of as much as 5 meters Damming such bays has effects on the resonant frequency of nearby baysand estuaries profoundly altering currents and tides in nearby areas

Hydroelectric

The Earthrsquos land area is 148times 1012 m2 Average rainfall is 12 meters per year Water density is 103 kgm3

Total rainfall is thus about 18times 1017 kg Dropping 100 meters releases 18times 1017 kgtimes 98 ms2 times 100 m =

176times 1020 joule Spread out over a year 315times 107 s gives 56 TW Assuming 90 efficiency yields 5 TWeThe total available is less perhaps 35 TWe if polar regions are excluded Hydroelectric installations observeabout 30 capacity factor yielding total worldwide availability of about 1 TWe-yryr or about 67 of thecurrent energy economy

Total

Excluding solar photovoltaic and ocean currents alternative electricity sources could yield about 3443 TWeworldwide or about 23 of the current energy economy

Page 22 Copyright copy 2017 vansnydersbcglobalnet all rights reserved 27 July 2017