Scientific Plan

• Introduction– History of LBA

• Background– Definition of Amazon– 7 Themes with achievements

• Motivation for Phase II– Unresolved questions

• Framework– Foster integrative science and avoid the dichotomy

between social and natural sciences

Multi-scale physical-chemical

interactions at the

biosphere-atmosphere interface in Amazonia

•Social dimensions of environmental changes and Land change science in Amazonia

Terrestrial and aquatic

systems: physical and biogeochemical processes

and interactions

Scientific Plan

• Strategy - define integrative issues

1. The changing Amazonian environment

2. Sustainability of ecosystem services and production systems (aquatic and terrestrial)

3. Climatic and hydrological variability and change – feedbacks, adaptation and mitigation

The Changing Amazonian Environment

• M1. What are the fluxes of energy, water, carbon, nutrients, trace gases and aerosols between the biosphere and the atmosphere over a wide range of ecosystems in Amazonia and what are the affects of human activities on those fluxes?

• M2+3+4. What are the sources and effects of particles and aerosols in the Amazon region? What are the effects of aerosols on cloud-microphysics, on the dynamics of convection, on precipitation, and on the fluxes of energy in Amazonia and how do these effects propagate to all scales of the global climate? What processes regulate the photochemical cycle of oxidants in the atmosphere of Amazonia and how are these cycles affected by humans?

The Changing Amazonian Environment

• M8+9. What is the impact of biomass burning emissions on the levels of air pollution and consequently the health of the human population of the Amazon region? What are the next exchanges of trace gases and aerosols between Amazonia and surrounding regions and how do these exchanges affect trans-boundary pollution?

• L1+4. What is the impact of the current agricultural configuration on the function of Amazonian landscapes and ecosystems? What are the impacts of managed and/or degraded forests on the function of Amazon ecosystems?

• M7. How will future changes in land use, land cover, greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations affect the hydrologic cycle and the fluxes of water, carbon, trace gases, and energy in Amazonia?

The Changing Amazonian Environment

• H2+3. How do regional hydrological patterns define the transport of carbon and what do its transformations indicate about the relations between water movement, geomorphology and soils, and the structure of vegetation in the Amazon drainage basin? What are the implications of land change and global climate change for these processes?

• How do seasonally flooded and riparian environments modulate the distribution of oxygen, and nutrients affecting water chemistry, the emission of trace gases, and the cycling of carbon?

• New Question: Changing patterns of biodiversity? Fire? Paleo-Amazonia?

Sustainability of ecosystem services and aquatic and

terrestrial production systems• Is the vegetation of Amazonia resilient under

management and fire? Is there a minimum area and configuration of remnant forests necessary to maintain the integrity of regional function?

• What is the impact of the current production systems on the functions of Amazonian landscapes and ecosystems? How will future changes in production affect the hydrologic cycle and the fluxes of carbon, nutrients, trace gases, and energy in Amazonia?

Sustainability of ecosystem services and aquatic and

terrestrial production systems• What are the ecosystem services (biodiversity,

carbon storage, air quality, climate regulation, flood control, water quality and quantity, forest products, etc.) provided by Amazonian ecosystems? And how will these services change under future scenarios of climate and land use change?

• How does the accelerating process of urbanization modify the sustainability of ecosystem services?

Sustainability of ecosystem services and aquatic and

terrestrial production systems

• What are the consequences of alternative land tenure and territorial management policies on the use of natural resources?

Questions Group 1

• How do local land-water interaction processes scale up to determine regional patterns?

– We need additional meso-scale studies– Recommendation: There is also a need for

hydrological and biogeochemical studies in micro-scale basins in diverse environments that encompass different geomorphologies, soil types, vegetation covers, and land uses allowing for more reliable extrapolation to the larger scales.

– Monitoring systems and hydrologic models on the Andean basins are still lacking

– Develop biogeochemical models coupled with hydrological models

Keep here!

• M3 What are the effects of aerosols on cloud-microphysics, on the dynamics of convection, precipitation, and the fluxes of energy in Amazonia and how do these effects propagate to regional and global climate?

• M5. How might the climate and hydrology of the Amazon region change in response to dynamic vegetation changes resulting from either land cover change or global climatic forcing? And, how will the Amazonian climate system including the vegetation dynamics and land use change feedback to the global climate?

3

• M6. What is the relevance of regional and global teleconnections in the cycles of energy, water, greenhouse gases and aerosols to social and economic systems?

• L.5. How does climate variability and land change affect the spatial distribution of economic activities, population and the propagation of diseases?

Questions Group 1

• What are the processes that control the stocks and fluxes of carbon in the terrestrial and aquatic systems?

– Land use and land cover– Climate;– Vegetation types– Budgets

Questions Group 1

• What are the processes that control the nutrients limitation and fluxes of trace gases?

– Nitrogen– Phosphorus– These relate to water quality and atmospheric

deposition• What controls water pathways in terrestrial

ecosystems of Amazonia?– Hydrological cycle– Climate;– Land use and land cover– Watershed characteristics

Questions Group 1

• How do seasonally flooded and riparian environments modulate the distribution of oxygen, and nutrients affecting water chemistry, the emission of trace gases, and the cycling of carbon?

– Research should emphasize the development of hydrologic models and especially biogeochemical models that consider the crucial role of riparian and inundated areas.

• How differences in landscape composition and configuration affect fluxes of matter and energy in terrestrial and aquatic systems?

– Hydrological cycle– Nutrient cycling– Trace gas fluxes from soils and vegetation

Questions Group 1

• What are the impacts of global climate change on the physical and biogeochemical processes and interactions in terrestrial and aquatic systems of the Amazon as a regional entity?

– Feedbacks, thresholds and non-linearities– Regional and local scales– Resilience

• What is the value of ecosystem services provided by Amazonian ecosystems?

– Carbon, water, biodiversity, scenic landscapes– Mitigation and adaptation strategies– Indicators of degradation/alteration