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July 29, 2014 Page 1

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Mike Rounds[R]

Rick Weiland[D]

GordonHowie [I]

Larry Pressler[I]

Unsure

U.S. Senate Vote

To: Interested Parties From: Clarity Campaign Labs Date: July 28, 2014 Subject: South Dakota Statewide Survey On behalf of the South Dakota Democratic Party, Clarity Campaign Labs conducted a poll of registered voters statewide in South Dakota from July 16th to 23th. We surveyed 3,837 voters using an IVR survey that included a live-patch cell phone oversample. We then matched the sample to the voter file and weighted it to reflect a midterm general electorate in the state. The margin of error is +/- 1.44%.

In the race for U.S. Senate, Mike Rounds is ahead of Democrat Rick Weiland 34% to 24%. Independent Larry Pressler makes a reasonably strong show with 10% support, while independent Gordon Howie at 3% support is only a minor player in this race. Most notable is the large number of undecided voters, at 29%. While Rounds is currently ahead of Weiland, the 10 point margin is less impressive with such a high number

of unsure respondents. Breaking down these respondents by self-identified party we see that in the initial party self-ID they are almost equally divided, as 28% are Democrats, 33% are Republicans, and 39% are Independents. When including leaners toward either party, they become 42% Republican to 36% Democrat, with 21% independent. There is also a higher proportion of undecided women than men, 31% of female voters were unsure compared to 24% of male voters. Younger voters also tend to be more undecided, with 41% of those aged 18-34 unsure. The demographics show a clear candidate support breakdown along party lines, with 80% of Weiland support coming from Democrats and 83% of Rounds support from Republicans. Independent Larry Pressler has bipartisan appeal, drawing an equal amount of support, 27%, from Democrats and Republicans, and 46% from Independents. In particular, 10% of conservative Democrats support Pressler and 11% of moderate Republicans support him. Weiland does best among women and ethnic minorities. 49% of Native Americans support him while only 11% chose Rounds. His support among women was nearly tied with Rounds, with 28% of female voters supporting Weiland and 30% Rounds. Rounds received 33% of white voters’ support compared to 29% who selected Weiland. 36% of men were for Rounds and only 26% for Weiland.

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Republican Democrat Independent

Undecided Voters by Self-IDed Party