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Page 1: SEB Investor Presentation 2008 Q3

1

Investor presentation

Page 2: SEB Investor Presentation 2008 Q3

2

Outline

Overview of the SEB Group

Earnings

NFI and Bond portfolios

Asset quality

Baltics

Funding and capitalisation

The Swedish stability package

Page 3: SEB Investor Presentation 2008 Q3

3

SEB’s market franchise

Difference from the average, %

100

100

100

Customer segmentation, 2007

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

SEBSwedbankSHBNordeaDanskeBank

DnB NOR

Retail- Nordic Retail GermanyRetail-Baltic Retail GB/IrelandMerchant B AMLife

Distribution of income

Important relation-

ships/customers

%

Customer survey

Large corporatesSweden

Institutionalclients and

banks –Nordic region

0

0

Page 4: SEB Investor Presentation 2008 Q3

4

…with a different income mix0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

SEB

Swedbank

SHB

Nordea

DnB NOR

Danske Bank

Net interestincome

Net fee &commissions

Net financialincome

Net lifeinsuranceincomeNet otherincome

Page 5: SEB Investor Presentation 2008 Q3

5

SEB's franchiseMerchant Banking● #1 Nordic stock broker● #1 Nordic and Baltic investment bank● #1 Nordic and Baltic cash manager● #1 Custody Nordic and Baltic markets● #1 Scandinavian currenciesWealth Management● #1 Nordic and Baltic private bank● #2 Nordic asset managerLife and pension● #1 Nordic unit-linked businessRetail● #2 Baltic region

5

Page 6: SEB Investor Presentation 2008 Q3

6

Ratings of Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken ABRating target set by SEB Board at AA

Moody’s S&P Fitch DBRS

Bank Senior Rating

Short Term P-1 A-1 F-1 R-1 (middle)

Long Term Aa2 A+ A+ AA (low)

Outlook Stable Negative Stable Stable

Last Action Outlook change Outlook change Outlook change Unaffected rating

Date Sep-08 Oct-08 Jul-08 Jul-08

Page 7: SEB Investor Presentation 2008 Q3

7

Outline

Overview of the SEB Group

Earnings

NFI and Bond portfolios

Asset quality

Baltics

Funding and capitalisation

The Swedish stability package

Page 8: SEB Investor Presentation 2008 Q3

8

Highlights Q3 2008

Strong capital and liquidity

Resilient underlying business– Robust customer franchise– Strong volume growth– Strengthened market position

Negative financial effects due to financial crisis

Continued collective provisions in the Baltic countries

SEK mIncome 8,705Expenses -5,970Operating result 2,010Net result 1,514

RoE, % 8.0

C/I-ratio 0.69Net credit loss level, % 0.27

Page 9: SEB Investor Presentation 2008 Q3

9

Q3 Jan-Sep Q2 Q3 Jan-SepSEK m 2008 2008 2008 2007 2007

Operating income 8,705 27,910 -16% -8% -8%Operating expenses -5,970 -18,442 -7% 7% 7%Operating profit 2,010 7,927 -43% -46% -36%Net profit 1,514 6,171 -46% -51% -38%

Return on Equity, % 8.0 10.9 -7.2 -9.3 -8.1Cost / income ratio 0.69 0.66 0.07 0.10 0.09Credit loss level, % 0.27 0.19 0.10 0.19 0.09

Basel II Core capital ratio, % 8.1 8.1 -0.5 -0.2 -0.2Risk-weighted assets, SEK bn 937 937 66 140 140

Change

Key figuresSEB Group

Page 10: SEB Investor Presentation 2008 Q3

10

Resilient underlying businessSEK m

Financial crisis impacts profit…

* Excluding sales of Baltic properties in Q4 2007 of SEK 785m

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

Q12007

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12008

Q2 Q3

Lehman Brothers-related lossesPortfolio lossesReported operating profit*

…but underlying income generation is stable

** Net financial income, Net insurance income and Other income

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

Q12007

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12008

Q2 Q3

Other income**Net fee and commission incomeNet interest income

Page 11: SEB Investor Presentation 2008 Q3

11

400600800

1,0001,2001,400

Q12005

Q2Q3Q4Q12006

Q2Q3Q4Q12007

Q2Q3Q4Q12008

Q2Q3

11,623

13,197

11,911

10,676

Jan-Sep 07 Jan-Sep 08

+14%

+12%Customer driven*

Total NII

* Volumes and margins on lending and deposits

Lending to the publicSEKbn Jan-Sep 08 +18% yoy

Deposits from the publicSEKbn Jan-Sep 08 +12% yoy

400500600700800900

Q12005

Q2Q3Q4Q12006

Q2Q3Q4Q12007

Q2Q3Q4Q12008

Q2Q3

Net interest incomeGroup, SEK m

Page 12: SEB Investor Presentation 2008 Q3

12

1,431

3,163

5,402 5,376

769936

2,729

5,0915,557

524

New issues &advisory

Secondary market& derivatives

Custody & mutualfunds

Payment, cards,structured lending,

deposits,guarantees

Other

Jan-Sep 07 Jan-Sep 08

-35%

-14%

-6%+3%

Deal driven

Securitiestransaction

driven

Value driven –performance

driven

Non-capital market driven

Capital markets driven

Fee and commission incomeGross development Jan-Sep 2008 vs. Jan-Sep 2007, SEK m

Page 13: SEB Investor Presentation 2008 Q3

13

Cost developmentCost increase, +7%Jan – Sep 2008 vs. Jan – Sep 2007, SEK m

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

One IT Roadmap

Pension

cost

Acquisitions

Baltics

Other

*

*

SEK -865m SEK 1.5 – 2.0bn

Achieved Target

Cost management program 2007 – 2009

2007 20092008

Page 14: SEB Investor Presentation 2008 Q3

14

Operating profit per divisionJan – Sep 2008 vs. Jan – Sep 2007SEK m

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000

Life

WealthManagement

Retail Banking

MerchantBanking

Jan-Sep 2008

Jan-Sep 2007

Changevs. Jan-Sep 2007

-21% (-11%)

-19%

-31%

-36%

ROEJan-Sep 2008

15.6% (20.2%)

14.5%

19.8%

13.3%

Excl. portfolio losses

Sweden: 3%Germany: -41%Estonia: -67%Latvia: -58%Lithuania: -11%Cards: -7%

Page 15: SEB Investor Presentation 2008 Q3

15

High business activity – Merchant BankingFX profit growth driven by increased focus on advisory services

4.6%

5.3%

5.4%

5.4%

9.2%

Carnegie

SHB

Morgan Stanley

Glitnir

SEB

Market Shares Nordic Stock Exchanges Jan – Sep 2008

Source: The Nordic Stock exchanges

80

100

120

140

160

180

Q42006

Q12007

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12008

Q2 Q3

Index

”Best for Commercial Real Estate Banking in the Nordic and Baltic region”

”No. 1 Globally for Overall Customer Satisfaction in Cash Management”

Page 16: SEB Investor Presentation 2008 Q3

16

High business activity – Retail BankingAttractive deposit offerings

0

5,000

10,000

15,00020,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

Retail Estonia new package offeringPackages sold since launch in May

New customers account for 50 % of sales.

Retail Sweden insurance salesSEK m

0500

1 0001 5002 000

Jan Feb Mar Apr Maj Jun Jul Aug Sep

2007 2008

5060708090

2005 2006 2007 2008

+ 5 300Incomegrowth +7%

Cash managementkunder (tusental)

Retail Sweden SME

*

*As of Oct 23

Page 17: SEB Investor Presentation 2008 Q3

17

High business activity – long-term savings

12.010.7 9.7

12.0 13.3 11.9 10.7

Q1-07 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1-08 Q2 Q3

5.34.95.8

3.52.62.9

4.1

Q12007

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12008

Q2 Q3

Swedish mutual funds – Net inflowsJan-Sep, SEK bn

-7.3-11.6

-1.1

-17.0

5.9

Robur SHB Nordea SEB Others

Life – Total salesSEK bn

Private Banking – Net salesSEK bn

17

*As of Oct 23

*

Page 18: SEB Investor Presentation 2008 Q3

18

Outline

Overview of the SEB Group

Earnings

NFI and Bond portfolios

Asset quality

Baltics

Funding and capitalisation

The Swedish stability package

Page 19: SEB Investor Presentation 2008 Q3

19

Net financial incomeGroup

+ corp fin intäkter I marknaden?

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

Q3 07 Q2 08 Q3 08

FX Equities Capital CPM Other incl.Markets Treasury

SEK 63bnSEK

55bn

SEK 12bn

Structured credits

Financial institutions

Covered bonds etc

Merchant Banking Investment portfolio

SEK m

SEK m Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08

P/L -872 -66 -348Equity -1,630 -56 -2,134

-2,502 -122 -2,482

Page 20: SEB Investor Presentation 2008 Q3

20

Structured credits Financial institutions2007 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08

-41 -400

-1,107-1,507

-15-56

P/L

Equity

Acc-794-1,056

-626 -990 -2,738-1,682

-2,291

-1,784 -5,029

2007 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08-26 51

-687-637

-52-78

P/LEquity

Acc-78-563

-72 -438 -1,249-635

-616

-515 -1,864

+ Covered bonds etc accumulated -680

Bond investment portfolio – financial effects30 September, 2008, SEK m

2007 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08-872 -348

-2,134

-2,482-1,630

-1,769

-2,502

-66-56

-122

MTM (SEK m) Equity -698 -4,518

-2,467

AccP/L -3,055

-7,573

Page 21: SEB Investor Presentation 2008 Q3

21

Structured credits portfolio – ratingRating Composition (S&P, Moody’s and Fitch)Outstanding volumes , 30 September, 2008

0.02%0.18%0.07%2.98%

96.75%

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

80.00%

90.00%

100.00%

AAA AA/A BBB BB/B CCC

Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08

Page 22: SEB Investor Presentation 2008 Q3

22

Outline

Overview of the SEB Group

Earnings

NFI and Bond portfolios

Asset quality

Baltics

Funding and capitalisation

The Swedish stability package

Page 23: SEB Investor Presentation 2008 Q3

23

Asset quality

Nordics66%

Group credit exposureTotal exposure = SEK 1,805bn

Germany24%

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

2006 2007 Q12008*

Q1-Q22008*

Q1-Q32008*

Germany BalticsNordics SEB Group

Net Credit Losses, % of lending

Impaired Loans Volumes % of Credit Portfolio*

Estonia 1.31Latvia 0.96Lithuania 0.43Baltics 0.85

*Annualised figures

0%

1%

2%

3%

Mar'06

Jun'06

Sep'06

Dec'06

Mar'07

Jun'07

Sep'07

Dec'07

Mar'08

Jun'08

Sep'08

SEB Group GermanyNordic Baltic

1.5%1.4%

0.6%0.2%

Lithuania5% Latvia

2%

Estonia3%

Page 24: SEB Investor Presentation 2008 Q3

24

Credit exposure On and off balance, SEK bn

Sep 2008 (Dec 2007) “Nordic” German Baltic Total

Corporates 533 (416) 99 (72) 88 (83) 720 (571)

Property Management 119 (100) 98 (87) 28 (26) 245 (212)

Households 313 (292) 94 (87) 61 (55) 469 (434)

Public Administration 20 (18) 87 (66) 6 (3) 113 (88)

Total non-banks 986 (826) 377 (312) 183 (166) 1,547 (1,304)

Banks 204 (187) 52 (58) 2 (3) 258 (248)

Total 1,189 (1,013) 430 (369) 186 (169) 1,805 (1,552)

Page 25: SEB Investor Presentation 2008 Q3

2525

Corporate credit exposure – by industrySEB Group, SEK bn

458 463

573

720

Dec2005

Dec2006

Dec2007

Sep2008

12%

11%

10%

18%3%

27%

19%

Finance and insurance Wholesale and retailTransportation Other service sectorsConstruction ManufacturingOther

Page 26: SEB Investor Presentation 2008 Q3

26

42%

35%

3%

2%

6%

8%1%3%

Sweden Germany EstoniaLatvia Lithuania Other NordicOther European Other

Property management – by geography*SEB Group, SEK 229bn

101 111 137 159

91 8175

86

Dec 2005 Dec 2006 Dec 2007 Sep 2008

Commercial Multi-family

192 192212

245

* By obligor’s domicile

Page 27: SEB Investor Presentation 2008 Q3

27

0.6%

1.4%

0.2%

1.5%

0%

2%

Dec'03

Mar'04

Jun'04

Sep'04

Dec'04

Mar'05

Jun'05

Sep'05

Dec'05

Mar'06

Jun'06

Sep'06

Dec'06

Mar'07

Jun'07

Sep'07

Dec'07

Mar'08

Jun'08

Sep'08

SEB Group Germany Nordic Baltic

* Impaired loans gross* *Excluding Banks

Impaired Loan Volumes* % of Credit Portfolio**

Page 28: SEB Investor Presentation 2008 Q3

28

0.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.700.800.90

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Q12008*

Q1-Q22008*

Q1-Q32008*

Germany Baltics Nordics SEB Group

Level of Net Credit Losses, %

* Annualised

Estonia 1.31Latvia 0.96Lithuania 0.43Baltics 0.85

Page 29: SEB Investor Presentation 2008 Q3

29

Outline

Overview of the SEB Group

Earnings

NFI and Bond portfolios

Asset quality

Baltics

Funding and capitalisation

The Swedish stability package

Page 30: SEB Investor Presentation 2008 Q3

30

Status report – Baltic business

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

2005 2006 2007 Jan-Sep2008

Estonia Latvia Lithuania

-50

50

150

250

350

Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08

Specific Collective

Profit before credit losses etc.SEK m

Net credit lossesSEK m

Provisioning to build up reservesSEK m

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08

Estonia Latvia Lithuania

Impaired loans in SEB’s portfolioPer cent

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

2005 2006 2007 Jan-Sep2008

Estonia Latvia Lithuania

Page 31: SEB Investor Presentation 2008 Q3

31

17 22 22 18 21 2234 39 458 8 8

4 5 6

813

15

1419 20

1014 14

13

2226

564441

34

525041

89

76

Dec'06

Dec'07

Sep '08 Dec'06

Dec'07

Sep '08 Dec'06

Dec'07

Sep '08

Total

Banks

PublicAdministrationHouseholds

PropertyManagementCorporate

SEB Estonia SEB Latvia SEB Lithuania

Growth rates in local currency+38% +17% +40% +18% +47% +30%

2006 2007 2006 2007 2006 2007

+1%

2008 YTD

+4% +13% 2008 YTD 2008 YTD

Baltic countries – Credit exposure On and of balance, SEK bn

Page 32: SEB Investor Presentation 2008 Q3

32

SEB Estonia

SEB Latvia

SEB Lithuania

Total Baltic

Impaired loans, gross

1,019 694 1,037 2,750

Specific reserves 294 80 401 775Collective 482 384 311 1,177Off balance reserves

0 0 0 0

Total reserves 776 464 713 1,952

Reserve ratio 76.1% 66.8% 68.8% 71.0%

Baltic countries Impaired Loans and ReservesSeptember 2008, SEK m

Impaired loans Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3SEK m 2007 2008 2008 2008

Estonia 186 334 819 1 019Corporate 47 132 570 657Private 138 202 249 362

Latvia 218 301 444 694Corporate 84 86 152 285Private 134 216 292 410

Lithuania 573 682 819 1 037Corporate 398 416 492 633Private 176 266 327 404

Page 33: SEB Investor Presentation 2008 Q3

33

Estonia Latvia Lithuania Total

Net Write-offs & Actual Losses 3 -11 -1 -9

Net New Specific Provisions -273 -58 -69 -400

Net New Collective Provisions -158 -187 -117 -462

Change in Value of Seized Assets -1 -1 -5 -7

Net Credit Losses -429 -257 -192 -878

Baltic countries – Net Credit Losses Jan – Sep 2008, SEK m

Page 34: SEB Investor Presentation 2008 Q3

34

Outline

Overview of the SEB Group

Earnings

NFI and Bond portfolios

Asset quality

Baltics

Funding and capitalisation

The Swedish stability package

Page 35: SEB Investor Presentation 2008 Q3

35

Capital supporting customer business

Risk-weighted assetsSEK bn

Tier 1 capital ratiosPer cent

6

7

8

9

10

11

Q12007

Q22007

Q32007

Q42007

Q12008

Q22008

Q32008

Basel II (no floors)Basel II (transition rules)Basel I

Basel I Tier 1 target

0

300

600

900

1200

Q12007

Q22007

Q32007

Q42007

Q12008

Q22008

Q32008

Basel I Basel II

Page 36: SEB Investor Presentation 2008 Q3

36

Capital adequacy SEB Group

7.9 8.0 7.8 7.5 8.2 8.6 8.1

10.5 10.2 10.3 10.8 11.5 11.010.4

Dec2002

Dec2003

Dec2004

Dec2005

Dec2006

Dec2007

Sep2008

Core capital ratio, % Total capital ratio, %

SEK bnCapital base 52.7 54.7 58.7 76.2 85.8 93.0 97.7Risk-w. Assets 503 535 570 704 741 842 937

Basel I 9,3%

Basel I 7,3%

Basel I 1.045

Basel II

Page 37: SEB Investor Presentation 2008 Q3

37

Structural liquidity position

Balance sheet structure

Assets Equity & Liabilities

Interbank deposits

ST funding <1 year

LT funding >1 year

Cash &interbank loans

Deposits from the public

Lending

Bond portfolio

Equity

Liqu

id a

sset

s

Stab

le fu

ndin

gS

hort-

term

fund

ing

“Ban

king

boo

k”

Other trading

Net liquidity position across maturitiesSEK bn, 30 Sep

More than 12 months matched funding, i.e. based on no access to capital markets, no refinancing of debt to credit institutions, issued bonds or subordinated capital; and moderate reduction of business activities.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1 week

2 weeks

4 weeks

2 months

3 months

4 months

5 months

6 months

9 months

12 months

SEB is match-funded approx.

one year

Page 38: SEB Investor Presentation 2008 Q3

38

Deposits - Interbank

20%

Deposits - General Public

42%

CPs/CDs11%

Schuldscheins and Reg Bonds3%

Mortgage Covered Bonds Sweden10%

Mortgage Covered Bonds Germany2%Public Covered Bonds Germany7%

Senior debt2%

Subordinated debt3%

Funding structureSEB Group, Sep 2008SEK 1,702bn

* Over collateral within covered pools SEK 57bn

Page 39: SEB Investor Presentation 2008 Q3

39

Outline

Overview of the SEB Group

Earnings

NFI and Bond portfolios

Asset quality

Baltics

Funding and capitalisation

The Swedish stability package

Page 40: SEB Investor Presentation 2008 Q3

4040

Unprecedented government and central bank intervention

● Government:$700bn (TARP) to buy illiquid assets, whereof $250bn to recapitalise banks.

● Fed: Extension of maturity and collateral, emergency support to Bear Stearns, AIG.

● Nationalisation: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Washington Mutual.

● Government:£50bn to recapitalise banks, £350bn to guarantee funding.

● BoE: Extension of maturity and collateral for borrowing.

● Nationalisation: Northern Rock, partly RBS, HBOS and Lloyds TSB.

● Eurozone governments:€150bn to recapitalise banks, €920bn to guarantee funding.

● ECB: extension of maturity and collateral for borrowing.

● Nationalisation: Partly Fortis, Dexia, capital injections in French banks, liquidity guarantee Hypo Real.

Nordic central banks & governments:● Extension of maturity and collateral for

borrowing. Strengthened deposit guarantees.

● SE: SEK 1,500bn to guarantee mid-term funding up to 5 years and SEK 15bn injected into new stability fund with mandate to recapitalise failing banks.

● DK: General guarantee on all senior unsecured bank debt.

● NO: NOK 350bn government liquidity facility against collateral in mortgage bonds.

Iceland● Nationalisation of all three

major banks.● $6bn rescue loan from IMF,

Nordic and Japanese central banks.

Page 41: SEB Investor Presentation 2008 Q3

41

The Swedish measuresThe Swedish situation● The Riksbank (central bank) deem the

stability in the Swedish financial system as satisfactory.

● Finansinspektionen (FSA) deem the Swedish banks as solvent. The capital adequacy requirements are met with a broad margin.

The framework● Based on an EU agreement● Install a guarantee program● Setting up a stability fund ● The government has a broad

mandate to decide on further measures if deemed necessary

● Capital injections is primarily given through preference shares issuance

● The government has the right to compulsory redemption of shares to market price under certain circumstances

The Guarantee program● SEK 1,500bn to support medium-term bank funding

● Cover Swedish banks & mortgage companies

● Possibility to refinance funding withstate guarantee to a risk based fee

● Require Tier 1 of ≥6% to utilize guarantee

● Handled by National Debt Office (Riksgälden)

The Stability fund● Will amount to an average of 2,5 per cent of GDP

in 2023, ~SEK 150bn

● The government will insert SEK 15bn

● The existing deposit guarantee fund of SEK 18bn is moved into the stability fund

● The rest, ~ SEK 117bn or ~SEK 2,6bn / annually will be paid by the financial system on a risk adjusted fee basis as well as through the guarantee program fee and the ongoing deposit guarantee fee.

● Stability fund fee payments will start when the financial turmoil has calmed down

Page 42: SEB Investor Presentation 2008 Q3

42

Stability fund functionality

PAYMENTS IN PAYMENTS OUT

Deposit guarantee errands Max SEK 0,5m/person/bank

Redeemed guarantees

Capital injection to banks in crisis

STABILITY FUND * One-Time contribution

20232,5% of GDP~ SEK 150bn

Supplied fundsl% of GDP SEK 33bn

Deposit guarantee fees

Guarantee - and stability fees

Interest/redemptions

The State SEK 15bn*

Deposit guarantee fund SEK 18bn*

Page 43: SEB Investor Presentation 2008 Q3

43

Global downturn, and…

…financial turmoil has turned a corner

● Strong capital and good liquidity

● Robust customer business

● Intensified advisory services

● Lower absolute costs

Page 44: SEB Investor Presentation 2008 Q3

4444