sector research 2018 fifa world cup: francophone … · belgium, switzerland, japan and 6 teams...

13
Copying prohibited 1/13 13th June 2018 1 To consider only the tournaments in which the FIFA Ranking is available would result in a smaller sample, diminishing the value of our conclusion on statistical grounds. SECTOR RESEARCH 2018 FIFA WORLD CUP: FRANCOPHONE TEAMS ARE THE FAVOURITES ACCORDING TO THE CRIF WORLD CUP SCORE CONTACTS Borja Monforte, Director- Head of International Operations Tel.: +34 93 122 36 90 Email: [email protected] Ricardo Aceves, Rating Specialist Tel: + 34 93 122 37 09 Email: [email protected] EXECUTIVE SUMMARY A study performed by CRIF Ratings (CRIF) on the coming World Cup to be celebrated in Russia concludes that there are macroeconomic and financial arguments that support France or Belgium as the next champions, followed closely by Switzerland. This outcome might look like a paradox and somehow contrasts the market consensus’ odds that the defending champion Germany and the powerhouse Brazil are the main candidates. The study takes as a reference four key data: current FIFA ranking, team players’ average age, GDP per capita ranking of each country and the average GDP growth of the previous decade. These four concepts have been analyzed for all championships since 1982 in order to build a World Cup Score for classifying the scores of the national teams that take part in the 2018 World Cup. Out of a total of 100 points, France and Belgium score 90 points, followed by Switzerland with 75 points. CRIF Ratings acknowledges that the concepts related to the sport have a prevailing weight vis à vis economic data. As a result, CRIF Ratings’ World Cup Score assigns a 75% incidence to the FIFA ranking a team holds and the team players’ average age (37.5% each). They are followed by a 15% assigned to the GDP per capita ranking and a 10% to the average GDP growth of the past 10 years. Despite CRIF Ratings’ effort to rationalize a sport like football by trying to predict the next World Cup Champion, it is important to highlight that there is a significant degree of variability and uncertainty in this exercise. However, we think this report covers useful macro and financial topics to provide a different reading angle to the World Cup. LOOKING AT THE PAST TO SCORE IN THE FUTURE CRIF Ratings selected the last 9 World Cup championships (but not the whole list) because an important element of our study, such as the FIFA ranking, is only present since 1993 1 . The objective of the analysis is to find some key and common features between the sports and the economics of the countries that take part in this tournament. The average and standard deviation for each component of the score have been calculated in order to find a relationship across past World Cup champions. The standard deviation calculated shows that the typical profile of a champion or “Champions’ Profile” has the following characteristics:

Upload: others

Post on 27-Mar-2020

0 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: SECTOR RESEARCH 2018 FIFA WORLD CUP: FRANCOPHONE … · Belgium, Switzerland, Japan and 6 teams with a 53 -point score. France and Belgium score in each concept except for the 10

Copying prohibited 1/13 13th June 2018

1 To consider only the tournaments in which the FIFA Ranking is available would result in a smaller sample, diminishing the value of our conclusion on statistical grounds.

SECTOR RESEARCH 2018 FIFA WORLD CUP: FRANCOPHONE TEAMS ARE THE FAVOURITES ACCORDING TO THE CRIF WORLD CUP SCORE

CONTACTS

Borja Monforte, Director- Head of International Operations Tel.: +34 93 122 36 90 Email: [email protected] Ricardo Aceves, Rating Specialist Tel: + 34 93 122 37 09 Email: [email protected]

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY A study performed by CRIF Ratings (CRIF) on the coming World Cup to be celebrated in Russia concludes that there are macroeconomic and financial arguments that support France or Belgium as the next champions, followed closely by Switzerland. This outcome might look like a paradox and somehow contrasts the market consensus’ odds that the defending champion Germany and the powerhouse Brazil are the main candidates.

The study takes as a reference four key data: current FIFA ranking, team players’ average age, GDP per capita ranking of each country and the average GDP growth of the previous decade. These four concepts have been analyzed for all championships since 1982 in order to build a World Cup Score for classifying the scores of the national teams that take part in the 2018 World Cup. Out of a total of 100 points, France and Belgium score 90 points, followed by Switzerland with 75 points.

CRIF Ratings acknowledges that the concepts related to the sport have a prevailing weight vis à vis economic data. As a result, CRIF Ratings’ World Cup Score assigns a 75% incidence to the FIFA ranking a team holds and the team players’ average age (37.5% each). They are followed by a 15% assigned to the GDP per capita ranking and a 10% to the average GDP growth of the past 10 years.

Despite CRIF Ratings’ effort to rationalize a sport like football by trying to predict the next World Cup Champion, it is important to highlight that there is a significant degree of variability and uncertainty in this exercise. However, we think this report covers useful macro and financial topics to provide a different reading angle to the World Cup.

LOOKING AT THE PAST TO SCORE IN THE FUTURE CRIF Ratings selected the last 9 World Cup championships (but not the whole list) because an important element of our study, such as the FIFA ranking, is only present since 19931. The objective of the analysis is to find some key and common features between the sports and the economics of the countries that take part in this tournament.

The average and standard deviation for each component of the score have been calculated in order to find a relationship across past World Cup champions. The standard deviation calculated shows that the typical profile of a champion or “Champions’ Profile” has the following characteristics:

Page 2: SECTOR RESEARCH 2018 FIFA WORLD CUP: FRANCOPHONE … · Belgium, Switzerland, Japan and 6 teams with a 53 -point score. France and Belgium score in each concept except for the 10

Copying prohibited 2/13 13th June 2018

Looking back to the last nine champions and applying CRIF Ratings’ World Cup score, it results that the score was 85 points or above in seven of the nine cases (77%). The remaining two cases are considered outliers, with Spain scoring 63 points and Italy 25 points. The latter remains CRIF Ratings base case to assume that France and Belgium are currently at the pole position to win the championship.

CRIF’S 2018 WORLD CUP SCORE VS MARKET CONSENSUS CRIF Ratings has analyzed the four key concepts in order to score and rank all the national teams that compete in the tournament. The scores have also been compared to the market consensus. According to the market, Top-5 national teams include Germany, Brazil, France, Spain and Argentina.

* Number expresses Euro/GBP to be collected per Euro/GBP betted

Players' GDP Capita 10 years' GDP

Ranking FIFA* Average Age Ranking Growth (average)

Between 1st and 9th

> 25,8 and < 27,6

Between 13th and

55th >1.1% and <3,1%

National Team Ranking FIFAPlayers'

Average AgeRanking (GDP per Capita)*

10-yea Growt

*

1982 Spain Ita ly n.a 27,0 25

1986 Mexico Argentina n.a 26,4 44

1990 Ita ly West Germany n.a 27,2 20

1994 USA Brazi l 3 27,4 62

1998 France France 6 26,7 16

2002 South Korea/Japan Brazi l 3 26,1 75

2006 Germany Ita ly 12 28,2 21

2010 South Africa Spain 1 25 25

2014 Brazi l Germany 2 26,3 19

Average 4,5 26,7 34,1

* GDP per capita measured the previous year of the Worldcup. Source: IMF

** GDP growth average of the previous decade. Source: IMF

Champion

Year Host Country

bwin dabblebet Ladbrokes Bovada William Hill Average

Germany 5,5 4,5 4,5 4,5 5,5 4,9

Brazi l 5,5 4,5 4,5 5 5,5 5,0

France 7 5,5 6 5,5 6,5 6,1

Spain 7 6 6 7 7 6,6

Argentina 10 9 9 8 10 9,2

Market Consensus Odds*2018 Worldcup National Teams

Page 3: SECTOR RESEARCH 2018 FIFA WORLD CUP: FRANCOPHONE … · Belgium, Switzerland, Japan and 6 teams with a 53 -point score. France and Belgium score in each concept except for the 10

Copying prohibited 3/13 13th June 2018

Total teams: 32

Europe: 14 Africa: 5 Asia: 5 South America: 5 North/Central America:

3

In contrast, Top-5 teams obtained from CRIF’s Score include France, Belgium, Switzerland, Japan and 6 teams with a 53-point score. France and Belgium score in each concept except for the 10-year GDP growth average, where the French GDP posted a negative 0.1% and the Belgian a positive 0.7%. This is largely linked to the severe economic downturn that Europe suffered during 2009-2012.

Due to its very strong economic growth (3.8% on average) and its privileged GDP per capita ranking (number 2), Switzerland only scores in the Sports’ concepts but not in the economics. According to CRIF Ratings Champions’ Profile, average GDP growth cannot exceed 3.1% (on a 10-year basis) and GDP-per-capita ranking cannot be above the 13thplace.

Among the rest of Top-10 teams we can find Japan, Germany, Spain, England, Portugal, Denmark and South Korea. The German case is a surprise, considering market expectations, but their very young team (25.7 years on average) and the relatively weak economic growth (0.9%) are not within our established parameters for a champion. In addition, Germany won the 2014 World Cup and, generally, a former champion does not repeat its success in the next tournament. Historically, it was only in two occasions that the same national team won two world cups in a row; one being Italy’s National team (1934 and 1938), and Pelè’s Brazil being the other one (1958 and 1962). On the other hand, Spain has a very old team (28 years on average) and the footprint of the economic downturn is still present in its GDP growth result (-1.0%). The same casuistic occurred for the Portuguese team, with an old team (27.7 years) and a 1.0% negative average growth throughout the decade.

England’s low FIFA ranking (13th) and a negative GDP growth are behind the final score. Similarly, Denmark has a low FIFA ranking (12th) and a meagre economic performance (0.4%). The case of South Korea is slightly different compared to English and Danish cases, but yielded the same result. South Korean FIFA ranking is low (60th), but their economic growth is too strong (3.5%) compared to champion’s standards.

You can find the full list of teams and their individual scores on page 4. 2018 FIFA WORLD CUP RUSSIA A total number of 32 national teams will dispute the championship. Russia, as a host, automatically qualified for the tournament.

The African continent is represented by Egypt, Morocco, Nigeria, Senegal and Tunisia. Asian teams include Australia, IR Iran, Japan, Korea Republic and Saudi Arabia. North and Central America and the Caribbean is composed by Mexico, Costa Rica and Panama. South American countries include Argentina, Uruguay, Brazil, Colombia and Peru.

Europe remains the main contributor to the tournament with 14 teams: Belgium, Croatia, Denmark, England, France, Germany, Iceland, Poland, Portugal, Russia, Serbia, Spain Sweden and Switzerland. In the next pages, you can find a brief summary of each national team and its main macro and financial data plus the team records.

CRIF Ratings' World Cup SCORENational Team

Tier 1 FranceBelgium

Tier 2 SwitzerlandTier 3 Japan

GermanySpainEnglandPortugalDenmarkSouth Korea

Page 4: SECTOR RESEARCH 2018 FIFA WORLD CUP: FRANCOPHONE … · Belgium, Switzerland, Japan and 6 teams with a 53 -point score. France and Belgium score in each concept except for the 10

Copying prohibited 4 / 13 13th June 2018

Players' GDP Capita 10 years' GDP

bwin dabblebet Ladbrokes Bovada William Hill Average 2017 Ranking Ranking FIFA* Average Age Ranking Growth (average) Total

Germany 5,5 4,5 4,5 4,5 5,5 4,9 1 25,7 42.161 19 0,9% 37,5 0 15 0 53

Brazi l 5,5 4,5 4,5 5 5,5 5,0 2 27,8 8.650 69 5,3% 37,5 0 0 0 38

France 7 5,5 6 5,5 6,5 6,1 7 26,4 36.857 23 -0,1% 37,5 37,5 15 0 90

Spain 7 6 6 7 7 6,6 8 28 26.616 30 -1,0% 37,5 0 15 0 53

Argentina 10 9 9 8 10 9,2 5 28,4 12.440 57 8,9% 37,5 0 0 0 38

Belgium 12 11 12 10 12 11,4 3 27 41.271 20 0,7% 37,5 37,5 15 0 90

England 19 16 14 16 17 16,4 13 25,9 40.367 24 -1,4% 0 37,5 15 0 53

Portugal 29 25 20 25 26 25,0 4 27,7 19.838 40 -1,0% 37,5 0 15 0 53

Uruguay 34 28 25 28 26 28,2 17 28,7 15.221 47 10,5% 0 0 15 0 15

Croatia 34 33 33 40 29 33,8 18 27,5 12.149 60 -0,8% 0 37,5 0 0 38

Colombia 41 33 33 33 34 34,8 16 27,3 5.806 89 4,8% 0 37,5 0 0 38

Russ ia 41 40 40 33 51 41,0 66 28,1 8.748 68 2,7% 0 0 0 10 10

Poland 67 50 40 50 51 51,6 10 28 12.414 59 2,4% 0 0 0 10 10

Denmark 101 80 80 80 101 88,4 12 26,1 53.578 9 0,4% 0 37,5 15 0 53

Switzerland 101 80 100 80 101 92,4 6 26,6 79.887 2 3,8% 37,5 37,5 0 0 75

Mexico 126 100 80 80 101 97,4 15 27,4 8.209 73 1,5% 0 37,5 0 10 48

Sweden 151 100 80 100 151 116,4 23 27,4 51.845 12 1,6% 0 37,5 0 10 48

Senegal 151 150 125 125 151 140,4 28 26,4 953 161 3,9% 0 37,5 0 0 38

Serbia 201 150 150 150 151 160,4 35 27,7 5.426 94 0,5% 0 0 0 0 0

Egypt 201 200 150 150 151 170,4 46 27 3.478 115** 11,9% 0 37,5 0 0 38

Peru 151 200 150 200 201 180,4 11 27 6.049 86 7,8% 0 37,5 0 0 38

Nigeria 201 200 150 200 151 180,4 47 24,9 2.176 141 5,2% 0 0 0 0 0

Iceland 201 200 150 150 251 190,4 22 29 59.765 5 2,7% 0 0 0 10 10

Japan 301 250 150 200 251 230,4 60 27,5 38.901 25 1,2% 0 37,5 15 10 63

Costa Rica 401 500 250 250 301 340,4 25 29 11.825 63 8,4% 0 0 0 0 0

Morocco 401 500 250 300 301 350,4 42 27,2 2.893 127 3,6% 0 37,5 0 0 38

Austra l ia 301 250 500 300 501 370,4 40 26,9 49.755 10 4,6% 0 37,5 0 0 38

South Korea 501 500 250 400 301 390,4 61 26,5 27.539 29 3,5% 0 37,5 15 0 53

Iran 501 500 500 300 501 460,4 36 26,5 5.219 98 3,6% 0 37,5 0 0 38

Tunis ia 751 500 500 500 751 600,4 14 26,8 3.689 122 0,4% 0 37,5 0 0 38

Panama 1001 1000 1000 1000 1001 1000,4 55 29,4 13.680 55 11,0% 0 0 15 0 15

Saudi Arabia 1001 1000 1000 1000 1001 1000,4 70 28,7 20.029 39 6,0% 0 0 15 0 15

* Number expresses Euro/GBP to be collected per Euro/GBP betted * as of April 2018 ** 2016

CRIF Ratings' World Cup SCORE

Market Consensus Odds* GDP per capita (USD)2018 Worldcup National Teams

Ranking FIFA*

Team Average

Age

10 years' GDP Growth

(average)

Page 5: SECTOR RESEARCH 2018 FIFA WORLD CUP: FRANCOPHONE … · Belgium, Switzerland, Japan and 6 teams with a 53 -point score. France and Belgium score in each concept except for the 10

Copying prohibited 5/13 13th June 2018

GROUP A1st Round Match Schedule 1st Round Match ScheduleDate Local Time Date Local Time

14-jun 18:00 14-jun 18:0019-jun 21:00 20-jun 18:0025-jun 18:00 25-jun 17:00

World Cup Appearances World Cup Appearances (of 20) *Merged with Soviet Union 2017 1,5% (of 20) 2017 -0,7%Champions: - Champions: -

2017 3,7% 2017 -0,9%Finalists: - Finalists: -

2017 5,2% 2017 5,8%Semifinalists (top 4): 1966 Semifinalists (top 4): -

12/31/17 7,6% 12/31/17 62,1Quarterfinalists (top 8): 1958, 1962, 1970 Quarterfinalists (top 8): -

1982 12/31/17 0,2% 12/31/17 -0,2%

1st Round Match Schedule 1st Round Match ScheduleDate Local Time Date Local Time

15-jun 17:00 15-jun 17:0022-jun 21:00 20-jun 18:0027-jun 17:00 25-jun 18:00

World Cup Appearances World Cup Appearances (of 20) 2017 4,2% (of 20) 2017 3,1%Champions: - Champions: 1930, 1950

2017 23,5% 2017 6,2%Finalists: - Finalists: -

2017 12,2% 2017 7,4%Semifinalists (top 4): - Semifinalists (top 4): 1954, 1970, 2010

12/31/17 19,2% 12/31/17 5,2%Quarterfinalists (top 8): - Quarterfinalists (top 8): 1966

12/31/17 21,7% 12/31/17 28,8

Egypt St. Petersburg Uruguay Rostov On DonUruguay Samara Egypt Volgograd

Against Venue Against VenueSaudi Arabia Moscow Russia Moscow

Team Records Country Economics Team Records Country Economics10* GDP Growth GDP Growth4

2007-2017 2007-2017

Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate

2007-2017 2007-2017

Avg. Inflation Rate Avg. Inflation Rate

2010 -2017 2010 -2017

Equity Index (YoY %) Equity Index (YoY %)

2007-2017 2007-2017

LT Bond Yield Oil Price (USD/b)

Uruguay Ekaterinburg Egypt EkaterinburgRussia St. Petersburg Saudi Arabia Rostov On Don

2010 -2017 2010 -2017

Against Venue Against Venue

GDP Growth GDP Growth2007-2017 2007-2017

Saudi Arabia Volgograd Russia SamaraTeam Records Country Economics Team Records Country Economics

2 12

Equity Index (YoY %) FX (vs USD)2010 -2017 2010 -2017

Benchmark Rate Benchmark Rate2010 -2017 2010 -2017

Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate2007-2017 2007-2017

Avg. Inflation Rate Avg. Inflation Rate2007-2017 2007-2017

Page 6: SECTOR RESEARCH 2018 FIFA WORLD CUP: FRANCOPHONE … · Belgium, Switzerland, Japan and 6 teams with a 53 -point score. France and Belgium score in each concept except for the 10

Copying prohibited 6/13 13th June 2018

GROUP B1st Round Match Schedule 1st Round Match ScheduleDate Local Time Date Local Time

15-jun 21:00 15-jun 21:0020-jun 15:00 20-jun 21:0025-jun 21:00 25-jun 20:00

World Cup Appearances World Cup Appearances (of 20) 2017 2,7% (of 20) 2017 3,1%Champions: - Champions: 2010

2017 1,6% 2017 2,0%Finalists: - Finalists: -

2017 8,9% 2017 17,2%Semifinalists (top 4): 1966, 2006 Semifinalists (top 4): 1950

12/31/17 1,9% 12/31/17 1,5%Quarterfinalists (top 8): - Quarterfinalists (top 8): 1934, 1986, 1994

12/31/17 15,2% 2002 12/31/17 7,4%

1st Round Match Schedule 1st Round Match ScheduleDate Local Time Date Local Time

15-jun 18:00 15-jun 18:0020-jun 15:00 20-jun 21:0025-jun 20:00 25-jun 21:00

World Cup Appearances World Cup Appearances (of 20) 2017 4,2% (of 20) 2017 4,3%Champions: - Champions: -

2017 0,8% 2017 9,9%Finalists: - Finalists: -

2017 10,2% 2017 11,8%Semifinalists (top 4): - Semifinalists (top 4): -

12/31/17 2,8% 12/31/17 60,9Quarterfinalists (top 8): - Quarterfinalists (top 8): -

12/31/17 6,4% 12/31/17 36.074

Morocco Moscow IR Iran KazanIR Iran Saransk Morocco Kaliningrad

Against Venue Against VenueSpain Sochi Portugal Sochi

Team Records Country Economics Team Records Country Economics6 GDP Growth GDP Growth14

2007-2017 2007-2017

Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate

2007-2017 2007-2017

Avg. Inflation Rate Avg. Inflation Rate

2010 -2017 2010 -2017

Equity Index (YoY %) Equity Index (YoY %)

2007-2017 2007-2017

LT Bond Yield LT Bond Yield

IR Iran St. Petersburg Morocco St. PetersburgPortugal Moscow Spain Kazan

2010 -2017 2010 -2017

Against Venue Against Venue

GDP Growth GDP Growth2007-2017 2007-2017

4

Spain Kaliningrad Portugal SaranskTeam Records Country Economics Team Records Country Economics

4

Equity Index (YoY %) FX (vs USD)2015 -2017 2010 -2017

LT Bond Yield Oil Price (USD/b)2010 -2017 2010 -2017

Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate2007-2017 2007-2017

Avg. Inflation Rate Avg. Inflation Rate2007-2017 2007-2017

Page 7: SECTOR RESEARCH 2018 FIFA WORLD CUP: FRANCOPHONE … · Belgium, Switzerland, Japan and 6 teams with a 53 -point score. France and Belgium score in each concept except for the 10

Copying prohibited 7/13 13th June 2018

GROUP C1st Round Match Schedule 1st Round Match ScheduleDate Local Time Date Local Time

16-jun 13:00 16-jun 13:0021-jun 20:00 21-jun 16:0026-jun 17:00 26-jun 17:00

World Cup Appearances World Cup Appearances (of 20) 2017 1,8% (of 20) 2017 2,3%Champions: 1998 Champions: -

2017 1,2% 2017 2,0%Finalists: 2006 Finalists: -

2017 9,4% 2017 5,6%Semifinalists (top 4): 1958, 1982, 1986 Semifinalists (top 4): -

12/31/17 0,8% 12/31/17 2,6%Quarterfinalists (top 8): 1930, 1938, 2014 Quarterfinalists (top 8): -

12/31/17 9,3% 12/31/17 7,8%

1st Round Match Schedule 1st Round Match ScheduleDate Local Time Date Local Time

16-jun 19:00 16-jun 19:0021-jun 20:00 21-jun 16:0026-jun 17:00 26-jun 17:00

World Cup Appearances World Cup Appearances (of 20) 2017 2,5% (of 20) 2017 2,1%Champions: - Champions: -

2017 2,8% 2017 1,1%Finalists: - Finalists: -

2017 6,7% 2017 5,8%Semifinalists (top 4): - Semifinalists (top 4): -

12/31/17 7,6% 12/31/17 0,5%Quarterfinalists (top 8): 1970, 1978 Quarterfinalists (top 8): 1998

12/31/17 28,3% 12/31/17 15,9%

Peru Ekaterinburg Denmark SamaraDenmark Moscow Peru Sochi

Against Venue Against VenueAustralia Kazan France Kazan

Team Records Country Economics Team Records Country Economics14 GDP Growth GDP Growth4

2007-2017 2007-2017

Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate

2007-2017 2007-2017

Avg. Inflation Rate Avg. Inflation Rate

2010 -2017 2010 -2017

Equity Index (YoY %) Equity Index (YoY %)

2007-2017 2007-2017

LT Bond Yield LT Bond Yield

Denmark Saransk Peru SaranskFrance Ekaterinburg Australia Samara

2010 -2017 2010 -2017

Against Venue Against Venue

GDP Growth GDP Growth2007-2017 2007-2017

4

Australia Sochi France MoscowTeam Records Country Economics Team Records Country Economics

4

Equity Index (YoY %) Equity Index (YoY %)2010 -2017 2010 -2017

Benchmark Rate LT Bond Yield2010 -2017 2010 -2017

Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate2007-2017 2007-2017

Avg. Inflation Rate Avg. Inflation Rate2007-2017 2007-2017

Page 8: SECTOR RESEARCH 2018 FIFA WORLD CUP: FRANCOPHONE … · Belgium, Switzerland, Japan and 6 teams with a 53 -point score. France and Belgium score in each concept except for the 10

Copying prohibited 8/13 13th June 2018

GROUP D1st Round Match Schedule 1st Round Match ScheduleDate Local Time Date Local Time

16-jun 16:00 16-jun 16:0021-jun 21:00 22-jun 18:0026-jun 21:00 26-jun 21:00

World Cup Appearances World Cup Appearances (of 20) 2017 2,9% (of 20) 2017 3,6%Champions: 1978, 1986 Champions: -

2017 24,6% 2017 1,8%Finalists: 1930, 1990, 2014 Finalists: -

2017 8,4% 2017 2,8%Semifinalists (top 4): - Semifinalists (top 4): -

12/31/17 22,4% 12/31/17 5,0%Quarterfinalists (top 8): 1966, 1974, 1998 Quarterfinalists (top 8): -

2006, 2010 12/31/17 77,7% 12/31/17 4,7%

1st Round Match Schedule 1st Round Match ScheduleDate Local Time Date Local Time

16-jun 21:00 16-jun 21:0021-jun 21:00 22-jun 18:0026-jun 21:00 26-jun 21:00

World Cup Appearances World Cup Appearances (of 20) 2017 2,8% (of 20) 2017 0,8%Champions: - Champions: -

2017 1,1% 2017 16,5%Finalists: - Finalists: -

2017 12,2% 2017 16,5%Semifinalists (top 4): 1998 Semifinalists (top 4): -

12/31/17 2,3% 12/31/17 13,9%Quarterfinalists (top 8): - Quarterfinalists (top 8): -

12/31/17 -7,6% 12/31/17 46,1%

Croatia Nizhny Novgorod Nigeria VolgogradNigeria St. Petersburg Croatia Rostov-On-Don

Against Venue Against VenueIceland Moscow Argentina Moscow

Team Records Country Economics Team Records Country Economics16 GDP Growth GDP Growth-

2007-2017 2007-2017

Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate

2007-2017 2007-2017

Avg. Inflation Rate Avg. Inflation Rate

2010 -2017 2010 -2017

Equity Index (YoY %) Equity Index (YoY %)

2007-2017 2007-2017

Benchmark Rate LT Bond Yield

Nigeria Kaliningrad Croatia KaliningradArgentina Nizhny Novgorod Iceland Volgograd

2010 -2017 2010 -2017

Against Venue Against Venue

GDP Growth GDP Growth2007-2017 2007-2017

5

Iceland Rostov-On-Don Argentina St. PetersburgTeam Records Country Economics Team Records Country Economics

4

Equity Index (YoY %) Equity Index (YoY %)2010 -2017 2010 -2017

LT Bond Yield LT Bond Yield2010 -2017 2010 -2017

Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate2007-2017 2007-2017

Avg. Inflation Rate Avg. Inflation Rate2007-2017 2007-2017

Page 9: SECTOR RESEARCH 2018 FIFA WORLD CUP: FRANCOPHONE … · Belgium, Switzerland, Japan and 6 teams with a 53 -point score. France and Belgium score in each concept except for the 10

Copying prohibited 9/13 13th June 2018

GROUP E1st Round Match Schedule 1st Round Match ScheduleDate Local Time Date Local Time

17-jun 21:00 17-jun 21:0022-jun 15:00 22-jun 20:0027-jun 21:00 27-jun 21:00

World Cup Appearances World Cup Appearances (of 20) 2017 1,0% (of 20) 2017 1,1%Champions: 1958, 1962,1970 Champions: -

1994, 2002 2017 3,4% 2017 0,5%Finalists: 1950, 1998 Finalists: -

2017 12,8% 2017 3,2%Semifinalists (top 4): 1938, 1974, 1978, Semifinalists (top 4): -

2014 12/31/17 10,2% 12/31/17 -0,1%Quarterfinalists (top 8): 1930, 1954, 1982 Quarterfinalists (top 8): 1934, 1938, 1950

1986, 2006, 2010 12/31/17 26,9% 1954 12/31/17 14,1%

1st Round Match Schedule 1st Round Match ScheduleDate Local Time Date Local Time

17-jun 16:00 17-jun 16:0022-jun 15:00 22-jun 20:0027-jun 21:00 27-jun 21:00

World Cup Appearances World Cup Appearances (of 20) 2017 3,2% (of 20) *Merged with Yugoslavia 2017 1,8%Champions: - Champions: -

2017 1,6% 2017 3,1%Finalists: - Finalists: -

2017 8,1% 2017 14,6%Semifinalists (top 4): - Semifinalists (top 4): 1930, 1962

12/31/17 5,0% 12/31/17 4,8%Quarterfinalists (top 8): 2014 Quarterfinalists (top 8): 1950, 1954, 1958

12/31/17 4,0% 1974, 1990 12/31/17 5,9% 2010 -2017

Team Records Country Economics Team Records Country Economics20

2007-2017

LT Bond Yield2010 -2017

Equity Index (YoY %)Equity Index (YoY %)2010 -2017

GDP Growth2007-2017

Avg. Inflation Rate

Unemployment RateUnemployment Rate2007-2017

LT Bond Yield

Benchmark Rate2010 -2017

Team Records Country Economics Team Records Country Economics

2007-2017

Avg. Inflation Rate2007-2017 2007-2017

11*4

2010 -20172010 -2017

St. PetersburgSwitzerland Nizhny Novgorod

SamaraSwitzerland Kaliningrad

Brazil Moscow

Against VenueSerbia

VenueCosta RicaSamara

Brazil

Against

2007-2017

2007-2017

2010 -2017

GDP Growth2007-2017

Avg. Inflation Rate2007-2017

Unemployment Rate2007-2017

10

LT Bond Yield2010 -2017

Equity Index (YoY %)Equity Index (YoY %)

GDP Growth

Avg. Inflation Rate

Unemployment Rate

GDP Growth

VenueBrazil Rostov On DonSerbia Kaliningrad

Costa Rica

Against VenueSwitzerland Rostov On DonCosta Rica St. Petersburg

Serbia Moscow

Against

Nizhny Novgorod

2007-2017

Page 10: SECTOR RESEARCH 2018 FIFA WORLD CUP: FRANCOPHONE … · Belgium, Switzerland, Japan and 6 teams with a 53 -point score. France and Belgium score in each concept except for the 10

Copying prohibited 10/13 13th June 2018

GROUP F1st Round Match Schedule 1st Round Match ScheduleDate Local Time Date Local Time

17-jun 18:00 17-jun 18:0023-jun 21:00 23-jun 18:0027-jun 17:00 27-jun 19:00

World Cup Appearances World Cup Appearances (of 20) 2017 2,5% (of 20) 2017 2,0%Champions: 1954, 1974, 1990 Champions: -

2014 2017 1,7% 2017 6,0%Finalists: 1966, 1982, 1986 Finalists: -

2002 2017 3,8% 2017 3,4%Semifinalists (top 4): 1934, 1958, 1970 Semifinalists (top 4): -

2006, 2010 12/31/17 0,4% 12/31/17 7,7%Quarterfinalists (top 8): 1962, 1978, 1994 Quarterfinalists (top 8): 1970, 1986

1998 12/31/17 12,5% 12/31/17 8,1%

1st Round Match Schedule 1st Round Match ScheduleDate Local Time Date Local Time

17-jun 15:00 17-jun 15:0023-jun 21:00 23-jun 18:0027-jun 19:00 27-jun 17:00

World Cup Appearances World Cup Appearances (of 20) 2017 2,4% (of 20) 2017 3,1%Champions: - Champions: -

2017 1,9% 2017 1,9%Finalists: 1958 Finalists: -

2017 6,7% 2017 3,7%Semifinalists (top 4): 1938, 1950, 1994 Semifinalists (top 4): 2002

12/31/17 0,8% 12/31/17 2,5%Quarterfinalists (top 8): 1934, 1974 Quarterfinalists (top 8): -

12/31/17 3,9% 12/31/17 21,8%

Sweden Sochi Korea Rostov-On-DonKorea Kazan Sweden Ekaterinburg

Against Venue Against VenueMexico Moscow Germany Moscow

Team Records Country Economics Team Records Country Economics18 GDP Growth GDP Growth15

2007-2017 2007-2017

Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate

2007-2017 2007-2017

Avg. Inflation Rate Avg. Inflation Rate

2010 -2017 2010 -2017

Equity Index (YoY %) Equity Index (YoY %)

2007-2017 2007-2017

LT Bond Yield LT Bond Yield

Korea Nizhny Novgorod Sweden Nizhny NovgorodGermany Sochi Mexico Rostov-On-Don

2010 -2017 2010 -2017

Against Venue Against Venue

GDP Growth GDP Growth2007-2017 2007-2017

9

Mexico Ekaterinburg Germany KazanTeam Records Country Economics Team Records Country Economics

11

Equity Index (YoY %) Equity Index (YoY %)2010 -2017 2010 -2017

LT Bond Yield LT Bond Yield2010 -2017 2010 -2017

Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate2007-2017 2007-2017

Avg. Inflation Rate Avg. Inflation Rate2007-2017 2007-2017

Page 11: SECTOR RESEARCH 2018 FIFA WORLD CUP: FRANCOPHONE … · Belgium, Switzerland, Japan and 6 teams with a 53 -point score. France and Belgium score in each concept except for the 10

Copying prohibited 11/13 13th June 2018

GROUP G1st Round Match Schedule 1st Round Match ScheduleDate Local Time Date Local Time

18-jun 18:00 18-jun 18:0023-jun 15:00 24-jun 15:0028-jun 20:00 28-jun 21:00

World Cup Appearances World Cup Appearances (of 20) 2017 1,7% (of 20) 2017 5,4%Champions: - Champions: -

2017 2,2% 2017 0,9%Finalists: - Finalists: -

2017 7,2% 2017 6,0%Semifinalists (top 4): 1986 Semifinalists (top 4): -

12/31/17 0,5% 12/31/17 N/AQuarterfinalists (top 8): 2014 Quarterfinalists (top 8): -

12/31/17 10,3% 12/31/17 7,1%

1st Round Match Schedule 1st Round Match ScheduleDate Local Time Date Local Time

18-jun 21:00 18-jun 21:0023-jun 15:00 24-jun 21:0028-jun 21:00 28-jun 20:00

World Cup Appearances World Cup Appearances (of 20) 2017 1,9% (of 20) 2017 1,8%Champions: - Champions: 1966

2017 5,3% 2017 2,7%Finalists: - Finalists: -

2017 15,3% 2017 4,4%Semifinalists (top 4): - Semifinalists (top 4): 1990

12/31/17 5,2% 12/31/17 1,2%Quarterfinalists (top 8): - Quarterfinalists (top 8): 1950, 1954, 1962

12/31/17 23,0% 1970, 1982, 1986, 2002, 2006 12/31/17 7,6%

Tunisia Moscow England Nizhny NovgorodEngland Kaliningrad Tunisia Saransk

Against Venue Against VenuePanama Sochi Belgium Sochi

Team Records Country Economics Team Records Country Economics12 GDP Growth - GDP Growth

2007-2017 2007-2017

Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate

2007-2017 2007-2017

Avg. Inflation Rate Avg. Inflation Rate

2010 -2017 2010 -2017

Equity Index (YoY %) Equity Index (YoY %)

2007-2017 2007-2017

LT Bond Yield LT Bond Yield

England Volgograd Tunisia VolgogradBelgium Moscow Panama Saransk

2010 -2017 2010 -2017

Against Venue Against Venue

4 GDP Growth 14 GDP Growth

Panama Saransk Belgium KaliningradTeam Records Country Economics Team Records Country Economics

2007-2017 2007-2017

Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate

2007-2017 2007-2017

Avg. Inflation Rate Avg. Inflation Rate

2010 -2017 2010 -2017

2010 -2017 2010 -2017

Equity Index (YoY %) Equity Index (YoY %)

2007-2017 2007-2017

Money Market Rate LT Bond Yield

Page 12: SECTOR RESEARCH 2018 FIFA WORLD CUP: FRANCOPHONE … · Belgium, Switzerland, Japan and 6 teams with a 53 -point score. France and Belgium score in each concept except for the 10

Copying prohibited 12/13 13th June 2018

GROUP G1st Round Match Schedule 1st Round Match ScheduleDate Local Time Date Local Time

19-jun 18:00 19-jun 18:0024-jun 21:00 24-jun 20:0028-jun 17:00 28-jun 18:00

World Cup Appearances World Cup Appearances (of 20) 2017 4,6% (of 20) 2017 7,2%Champions: - Champions: -

2017 2,0% 2017 1,4%Finalists: - Finalists: -

2017 4,9% 2017 4,8%Semifinalists (top 4): 1974, 1982 Semifinalists (top 4): -

12/31/17 3,3% 12/31/17 6,7%Quarterfinalists (top 8): 1978 Quarterfinalists (top 8): 2002

12/31/17 23,2% 12/31/17 -14,7%

1st Round Match Schedule 1st Round Match ScheduleDate Local Time Date Local Time

19-jun 15:00 19-jun 15:0024-jun 21:00 24-jun 20:0028-jun 18:00 28-jun 17:00

World Cup Appearances World Cup Appearances (of 20) 2017 1,8% (of 20) 2017 1,7%Champions: - Champions: -

2017 4,3% 2017 0,5%Finalists: - Finalists: -

2017 9,3% 2017 2,9%Semifinalists (top 4): - Semifinalists (top 4): -

12/31/17 6,6% 12/31/17 0,0%Quarterfinalists (top 8): 2014 Quarterfinalists (top 8): -

12/31/17 13,6% 12/31/17 19,1%

Colombia Kazan Japan EkaterinburgJapan Volgograd Colombia Samara

Against Venue Against VenueSenegal Moscow Poland Moscow

Team Records Country Economics Team Records Country Economics7 GDP Growth 1 GDP Growth

2007-2017 2007-2017

Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate

2007-2017 2007-2017

Avg. Inflation Rate Avg. Inflation Rate

2010 -2017 2010 -2017

Equity Index (YoY %) Equity Index (YoY %)

2007-2017 2007-2017

LT Bond Yield LT Bond Yield

Japan Saransk Colombia SaranskPoland Kazan Senegal Ekaterinburg

2010 -2017 2014 -2017

Against Venue Against Venue

5 GDP Growth 5 GDP Growth

Senegal Samara Poland VolgogradTeam Records Country Economics Team Records Country Economics

2007-2017 2007-2017

Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate

2007-2017 2007-2017

Avg. Inflation Rate Avg. Inflation Rate

2010 -2017 2010 -2017

2010 -2017 2010 -2017

Equity Index (YoY %) Equity Index (YoY %)

2007-2017 2007-2017

LT Bond Yield LT Bond Yield

Page 13: SECTOR RESEARCH 2018 FIFA WORLD CUP: FRANCOPHONE … · Belgium, Switzerland, Japan and 6 teams with a 53 -point score. France and Belgium score in each concept except for the 10

Copying prohibited 13 / 13 13th June 2018

______________________________________

DISCLAIMER All analyses and statements contained in this document must be considered only as the opinion of CRIF Ratings on the date on which they are given. Under no circumstances should they be considered as recommendations for the purchase, holding or sale of financial securities or relating to investment decisions. All the information and data contained in this document are protected by law, and none of this information can be copied or in any other way reproduced, amended, resent, divulged or resold, or archived for subsequent use for one of the abovementioned purposes in any way or form or by any means, in total or in part, by any person without the prior written authorization of CRIF Ratings. CRIF Ratings adopts all necessary measures so that the information used in its analyses and research is complete, reliable and of sufficient quality. However, CRIF Ratings is not responsible for the accuracy of the information used to prepare this publication and does not carry out any auditing activities on this information.