send in the clowns contents - hindecapital.com

SEND IN THE CLOWNS CONTENTS

OVERVIEW

HINDESIGHT PORTFOLIO SELECTION GLAXOSMITHKLINE (LSE:GSK) INVESTMENT INSIGHTS

HINDESIGHT DIVIDEND UK Portfolio # 1 (April 2021)

APPENDIX I: THE WAY WE THINK

APPENDIX II: HOW WE THINK

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WWW.HINDESIGHTLETTERS.COMISSUE 76 - APRIL 2021

This old saying apparently originated in the 19th century when travelling circuses were still a

highlight of entertainment and many acts were so dangerous, disaster wasn’t far away. When someone fell or was injured, or maybe an act just flopped, the call of “Send in the clowns” was heard, and on the clowns dutifully went, in the hope of distracting people from the tragedy.

With the Covid-19 pandemic still ripping through the world, we are certainly being distracted by monetary circus high wire trapeze acts, and the clowns are everywhere to be seen on the world stage, where sanity is taking very much a backseat. The view of insanely valued IPOs, Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs) and Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs) comes with the world, including President Biden, proclaiming

2 HINDESIGHT Dividend UK Letter

that Derek Chauvin was “guilty” of George Floyd’s murder even before the jury has come out. Maybe we should have all big trials on world Zoom and a Vote app on our phone, with a freemium version so we can upgrade for more evidence? And in California, the American socialite and transgender rights activist, Caitlyn Jenner, is running for Governor, stating that “Californians deserve better”. I totally agree on this point.

I would have thought my personal dislike for two overused words in today’s circus, ”disruptive” and “holistic”, were shared by anyone over the age of 22, but apparently not. I do think we can all agree that delivering takeaway food on a bicycle, where the customer uses an app rather than a phone to order is not exactly disruptive tech. While I’m sure there is an equal chance that the food will be shaken up, cold and late, the same maths for this low margin, fragile, zero barrier to entry model exist for all. So it’s hardly surprising that the marketplace called challenge on London’s highlight IPO this year, Deliveroo, is now down 40%, after floating at 390p, at £6.7bn market capitalisation. Now, it’s only worth £3.9bn, bargain! That’s a lot of £5 delivery fees to justify supportive earnings. I’m not certain they even cover the bike repair fees, let alone the drivers’ wages. As my old friend from San Francisco used to say, “Slim to none, and slim just left.”

So, the market called challenge on Deliveroo’s valuation will, like a blind hog, find an acorn every few decades, but many of the other IPOs this year are holding up. Trust Pilot is a well-known review site for any internet shopper. The big, probably impossible, challenge is to find a site that advertises only one-star ratings. Most review sites, like references, seem ‘mystically’ skewed to providing substantially more positive reports than negative. Of course, in this day, as free speech looks to be dying out,

saying anything bad, however truthful it may be, is fraught with risk. During my last corporate management role, I remember being asked to provide a reference for an ex-employee, who was clearly interviewing at a new venture. I simply replied “I can confirm XX worked at YY between the dates of ZZ etc”, not just because of the old adage, “If you can’t say anything good, don’t say it at all”, but because it isn’t worth the aggro in Wokeland. Of course, I then took a mobile call from a friend working at the bank that required the reference looking for the ‘inside’ off the record. “Don’t touch with a barge pole”, was my reply. What is a review or reference worth, if an opinion or truth cannot be said, or can be deleted by the company or have managed dilution?

In the small window of non-lockdown last year, we visited a cottage in the UK via Airbnb. It was far from satisfactory, with no mention of the building work going on and an illusion of the size of the cottage. Hence the price and value for money were shocking. We did what most disappointed travellers do; despite being urged by the host, we declined to make a comment, just not worth the aggro. Accepted ‘polite’ behaviour or knowledge it would be deleted, I suppose. But there is always fun to be had at the circus. On a bored, rainy lockdown day, go through the review sites, and see if you spot a real review trail. It reminds me of my weekend visits to Berlin nightclubs in the 1980s, when you had to make such judgements on the dancing cabaret entourage, again fraught with risks!

The current share price of 323p values Trust Pilot at £1.3bn. Considering that it barely managed a £5mil profit last year for the first time since its inception in 2007, on less than £90mil worth of revenue, it doesn’t take a CFA holder to suggest that, when trading at 16 times sales and 260 times earnings, it is hardly cheap. But at the monetary circus, with the clowns

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Mark Mahaffey

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WRITTEN BY

CO-FOUNDER & CFO OF HINDE CAPITAL

ISSUE 76 - APRIL 2021 3

centre stage, let’s just assume that with its ‘huge barrier to entry’ and ‘complex business model’– as long as I put in 100% growth every year for the next five years in my stock model – I can get almost to fair value! The business generates its revenue, like most, by growing its customer base, and these customers pay a month fee for the services it provides. Some 20,000 plus currently, paying £200 a month or more, to ‘guide’ them in the new internet shopping world to make better, more informed purchases. The fact that I pay little attention to yet another 4.9/5 star rating does not make my cynical, more informed view better than the masses, but I am writing as a value stock analyst. Having a current nose-bleed valuation, that relies on a huge customer acquisition growth rate for years in the future, with little risk of competition doesn’t pass for value. Clearly, not one for my pension pot, but will consider adding to the short-selling list.

An old-fashioned idea of mine, which I admit is way out there, is that for review sites to be actually believed by anyone with an IQ of over 11, they should state that all reviews, lack of reviews and references are posted in date order, with absolutely no deletions for any reason and free speech permitted, without recourse. Unfortunately, that plan falls down immediately, because most companies with products to sell wouldn’t pay for that, so the whole complex business model doesn’t work.

There is a tremendous amount of wealth being created, led by the monetary printing of the world’s central banks, that indebts their countries to a budget deficit and debt to GDP levels in the historical stratosphere. Whether it’s from overpriced IPOs or inflating 1000 digital currencies from zero to trillions, speculation is rife. As humans, we seem to follow a well-trodden path. While the divide from the 1-10% super rich-just rich, to the less well-off continues to widen, one does have to book it at some stage into the ‘assets’ associated with wealth to actually ‘enjoy’ the wealth.

• Expensive car/s

• Expensive home/s, lavishly decorated

• Invariably get divorced, getting new ‘better model’ husbands or wives

• Buy art (with little knowledge)

• Look for power by running for politics (with no experience)

With very little imagination outside of the above, the world’s new wealth creation, adds to the circus acts of today, but it is not new. I remember well the old USSR crashing into capitalism in the early 90s. One minute I was paying for my taxi rides in Leningrad with lipstick or soap I had bought in a job lot, en route, at Heathrow, and the next all I had was £250,000 armoured Maybachs never getting out of 1st gear, in the streets near my home in London, with new Russians, buying ‘art’ at Christie’s.

When I was a young banker, I remember discussing more than once with contemporaries that, as none of us had any interest in art at the time, we should make a pact that if ever we hit the real big time, we wouldn’t join that charade of buying expensive art, pretend it’s a good investment, start to sound authoritative on the matter and, even worse, sponsor an upcoming ‘artist’. Many will remember a well-known hedge fund manager buying Damien Hirst’s ‘Dead shark in a tank’ almost twenty years ago, but today we have the digital version of art excess in “Non-Fungible Tokens” (NFTs). Wikipedia tells us that” an NFT is a unit of data stored on a digital ledger, a blockchain, that certifies a digital asset to be unique and not interchangeable. It is able to represent items such as photos, videos, audio and other digital files”. So far, so interesting, but it goes on to mention that “access to any copy of the original file, however, is not restricted to the buyer of the NFT and copies of these digital items (so exact replicas?) are available for anyone to obtain”.

The “well-known” digital artist, Mike Winkelman, had never sold a print for more than $100 before last year, but soared up the rich list with his digital collage print, ‘Everydays: The first 5000 days’, which sold at Christie’s for $69mil last month! Of course, this was paid for in digital currency, a fool and his money…

For far too many of the newly mega-enriched, the final stage of accepted human insanity is a belief in elevated knowledge and opinion. I can’t believe how many of them I’ve come across over the years who after making a big buck on some random iffy property deal or city hedge fund think they can talk about cancer research at the same level with an oncologist.

Whether it is the trader who has made a fortune pushing the out-of-date VAR limit, a few barely legal huge property deals, doubling down on GameStop/DogeCoin, or getting lucky on a new ‘disruptive’ IPO, I am in regular awe/dismay of their ability to talk with ‘authority’ about matters outside their limited ‘expertise’. In time, no doubt, huge riches may buy new brain upgrades, but for now, at least, reading a few more books would be a start. The circus goes on, for now, but one day, it will leave town.

Trust Pilot share price history.

Source: Hargreaves Lansdown


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By Mark MahaffeyCO-FOUNDER & CFO OF

HINDE CAPITAL

GlaxoSmithKline Plc (LSE:GSK) needs little introduction. It’s a huge British multinational pharmaceutical company based in London, UK. From its early 20th-century origins as a dried-milk baby food producer (Glaxo from lacto) and its first pharmaceutical product, released in 1924, Vitamin D, the business eventually became Glaxo Wellcome, the third-largest company in the industry by 1999. After the 2000 merger of Glaxo Wellcome and SmithKline Beecham, GSK established itself as the leading drug manufacturer, currently led by CEO, Emma Walmsley. Its global operation employs 99,000 people with 2020 revenue of £34bn and a market capitalisation of £68bn.

GlaxoSmithKline has appeared twice in the HindeSight Dividend Portfolio, in 2014, gaining 18%, and in 2018, gaining 22%, with a holding period of 560 and 154 days, respectively. It is currently scheduled to pay a 6% yearly dividend with an unchallenging P/E of 12. Despite the growing revenue and stable earnings, GlaxoSmithKline has seen its market cap and share price dwindle in recent years. Since early 2020n, it has been one of the worst performers in the FTSE 100 index, down almost 30% in that time.

Clearly, the market is unhappy with GlaxoSmithKline, but with such negativity, opportunity often beckons.

The obvious headline is the concern there has been during the Covid-19 pandemic as the race to produce and market a vaccine has been very visual. While GSK is the largest player by far in the global vaccine market, generating $9.1bn in sales in 2019 with a huge 20% market share, the disappointment in it missing out on producing a Covid-19 vaccine has been dramatically felt in the share price. Despite vaccines for polio, hepatitis B and multiple pipelines for Malaria, COPD and Respiratory Synctyial Virus, its partnership with Sanofi for a place at the table in 2021 has been delayed as early clinical trials for a Covid-19 vaccine have stalled.

HINDESIGHT PORTFOLIO BUY ALERT [7th APRIL 2021, 1290P]GLAXOSMITHKLINE


It is Astrazeneca (AZN) and Pfizer that are now the household names as the global vaccination programme rolls out, but not GlaxoSmithKline. The fact that AZN has less revenues and earnings than GSK but a 40% higher market cap is reflected in the P/E, which was almost 4x greater for 2020, although

the forward P/E estimate is lower. For most of 2020, AZN had reached the pinnacle status of being the largest FTSE 100 company by market capitalisation. The low oil price and banking concerns saw typical leaders, such as Royal Dutch Shell and HSBC, suffer relegation. But no doubt, it’s just cyclical by nature.


The chart below shows the market cap comparison history between AZN and GSK, clearly showing the change that currently favours AZN; i.e. until recent history, GSK was the bigger company but not now. The financial metrics derived from the share price show that belief in growth for AZN is as optimistic as the lack of belief in GSK.

Maybe, this is the one of the reasons that the Elliott Management-led by billionaire Paul Singer, the feared activist investor has taken a multi-billion pound stake in GSK, which was announced last week, bearing in mind, I don’t believe he’s read my write up yet!

Elliott Management typically invest in underperforming companies and then ‘press’ management and board to make changes that are positive for the share price, often by selling off parts of the company, under the sum-of-the-parts is often greater than the whole theory. Although, in Glaxo’s case, they have already announced they will be splitting the company in 2022, and maybe the market doesn’t like that. It is this plan that Elliot believes can be influenced.

The split company will see the highly cash generative consumer healthcare business separate from the biopharma business, which will focus on more pipeline new drugs, something that has been a criticism of GSK in recent years.

Analysts’ Corner/Summary

While most healthcare/pharma analysts have a typical buy/hold recommendation on GSK, with a target price at 1600p, 20% higher than current levels, it is interesting to read the main line press trying to justify why GSK is unlikely to challenge AZN in the future. I have learnt to respect the cyclicality of industries and stock specific. GSK is currently underperforming against the index and its peers considerably, but it is a huge company with deep pockets that will make changes, with or without Elliot pushing. The dividend at 6% may well be cut as per guidance, but there is sufficient margin of safety in the built-in bad news here for GSK to be a suitable addition to the HindeSight Portfolio at this time.


INVESTMENT INSIGHTS

Almost three and half years ago, the front cover of the ‘HindeSight Letter’ featured Kenny Rodgers with one

of his most famous verses from the song, ‘The Gambler’ – “Don’t count your money while sitting at the table.” It was in reference to the price of Bitcoin at $20,000. It subsequently fell over the next two years by 85% to almost $3000. Of course, it has roared back now, but in light of the current frenzy, I have attached the link, and the thought is the same.

http://www.hindecapital.com/attachments/reports/full/399/original/Hindesight_Dividend_UK_Letter_-_December_2017.pdf

I would have more than a trading speculative tool interest in Bitcoin, as THE digital currency if there weren’t a grillion other coins behind it. I get the game, (my young son plays Roblox too),but has nobody ever wondered why there are only 180 currencies in the world and yet more than 1000 digital currencies. The top 10 are ‘worth’ over $1.6trillion and you have to get to 51st place before their ‘value’ drops below $1bn per coin.

To the naked eye, there appears to be little thought of a discount to the regular disappearances of these coins, as we saw in Turkey last week, with more credit given to the arrival of well-known financial guru, Paris Hilton, to the marketplace.

https://www.afr.com/markets/currencies/trader-flees-turkey-with-2b-in-crypto-scam-20210423-p57lx5

My concern, understandably, is not limited to the current feeding frenzy in the Cryptocurrencies but widespread across the marketplace. The immense liquidity that is driving these valuations, from DogeCoin to TrustPilot, may be in its last days. While the print is barely dry on yet another relief stimulus by Joe Biden’s administration, including $1,400 cheques for every American (37% of which is heading for the stock market, apparently), time may be running out. If you want to ‘enjoy’ some of this fast new wealth to get a new car/s, new house/s, new wife/husband, buy art, get into politics etc, booking some of these gains now, might be a good idea.

Source: CNBC


Our good friends at Variant Perception, led by Simon White and Tian Yang – who are still the best independent macro research house in the world, in my opinion – have these thoughts from their latest piece on liquidity in ‘The Edge’,

“When we talk about liquidity, we invariably mean “excess liquidity”. This is the difference between the growth in money-created by central banks through policies such as QE, and by commercial banks when they make loans and economic growth. The thinking is that liquidity that is not absorbed by the needs of the real economy is surplus, and ends up supporting prices of assets such as equities and commodities. As the chart shows, Global Excess Liquidity is falling, as central banks are creating less money, but at the same time, the global economy is coming back to life as virus restrictions are eased in many parts of the world, sucking up excess liquidity.”

-Variant Perception

Certainly worth following on LinkedIn if you haven’t already signed up to their full service.

Some thoughts for a more detailed discussion in the future, is the less discussed effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on the ‘working’ life and future labour needs,

Source: Coinmarketcap.com


amid government hand-outs. At last count, 34% of the US population relies on some level of government monetary help, arguably more in many developed parts of the world. The much talked of “Universal Basic Income” springs to mind where people are floored at a level of income, more so than the levels of today, where actual working for your income is seen as a historic need. While many vocal CEOs, such as Tim Martin, CEO of Wetherspoons, will complain about the huge effects of the pandemic on their business, it is the business owners who may be suffering rather than the employees, who seem hugely supported by their governments. Some may seem some irony/farce in the fact that Tim Martin sold £50mil worth of shares in January, in the same month as his business claimed more than £25mil in furlough payments. I couldn’t possibly comment.

But, what happens, when you try to get people back to work, when they have huge savings in their bank accounts, accumulated while being forced to watch TV and do up their houses, without the daily grind. It would appear more than a few companies are finding it difficult to attract new workers, no matter what price they pay per hour. Surely, we should not be surprised to see inflation rage its head in the coming years, with the monetary spigots wide open and labour attitudes changing.

An old friend who I spent many years trading with, sent me this email on 30th April. Knowing David, I sense there is some level of glib sarcasm reflecting in his otherwise earnest observations, with respect to the same well-known phrase, used by Irving Fisher on October 23rd 1929, but maybe not. The final charts demonstrate quite admirably, that actual earnings and valuations of companies are clearly outside of the historical norm by a huge degree. Maybe, it is different this time, and maybe the circus never leaves town. Something strange is happening in the US economy.

A McDonald's in Tampa, Florida, offers $50 to show up for a job interview. Even with free money plastered in big, bold black letters on its menu sign, facing a busy roadway, there are reportedly still no takers.

Source: Zerohedge

Mark, I really think stocks may have reached a permanently high plateau – they are bullet proof. You can throw anything at them and they come back every time, valuations are bogus in the era of super growth without inflation. We really are in a new world without risk.

- David


Tobin's Q. the ratio of total stock market capitalization to the total replacement value of the assets in its companies, is at an all- time high, as shown by this chart from Morgan Stanley. Over time it tends to be meanreverting.

It is a long way from the mean now:


HINDESIGHT DIVIDEND UK PORTFOLIO # 1 (APRIL 2021) PORTFOLIO UPDATE AND CONSTRUCTION

Valuation Date: 28/04/2021Index UKX Index

LIVE PORTFOLIO

Index Index Div Ex-Div Ttl Div Abs RelName Industry Group Entry Date Entry Price Valuation Price Entry Price Valuation Price Yield (%) Date Rec Return (%) Return (%)

SAINSBURY (J) PLC Food 18/03/2019 233.30 235.00 7,299.19 6,963.67 4.49% 10/06/2021 21.70 11.06% 15.66%VODAFONE GROUP PLC Telecommunications 18/03/2019 143.02 135.14 7,299.19 6,963.67 5.98% 17/12/2020 16.02 6.41% 11.01%

ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC-B SHS Oil&Gas 25/03/2020 1,270.00 1,317.80 5,688.20 6,963.67 3.75% 13/05/2021 35.00 6.70% -15.72%CENTAMIN PLC Mining 04/01/2021 124.00 110.70 6,571.88 6,963.67 6.17% 20/05/2021 0.00 -10.73% -16.69%

GLAXOSMITHKLINE PLC Pharmaceuticals 07/04/2021 1,290.00 1,336.60 6,885.32 6,963.67 5.97% 20/05/2021 0.00 3.61% 2.47%IMPERIAL BRANDS Agriculture 09/03/2021 1,383.00 1,478.00 6,730.34 6,963.67 9.39% 18/02/2021 0.00 6.87% 3.40%

Average Live Portfolio Return per Stock 4.74% 3.99% 0.02%

CLOSED PORTFOLIOIndex Index Capital Ttl Div Abs Rel

Name Industry Group Entry Date Exit Date Entry Price Exit Price Entry Price Exit Price Rec Return (%) Return (%) StateSTANDARD LIFE ABERDEEN PLC Diversified Finan Serv 02/10/2014 08/05/2015 218 **** 475.10 6,446.39 7046.82 73.00 85.25 17.63% 8.10% PROFIT

Amlin plc insurance 06/05/2015 08/09/2015 125 454.00 655.01 6,933.74 6,146.10 0.00 0.00 44.28% 55.63% TAKEOVERCENTRICA PLC Gas 02/10/2014 23/09/2015 356 301.90 223.50 6,446.39 6,032.24 0.00 8.40 -23.85% -17.43% STOP LOSS

IG GROUP HOLDINGS PLC Diversified Finan Serv 18/11/2014 28/09/2015 314 620.00 783.00 6,709.13 6,109.00 0.00 8.45 28.04% 36.98% PROFITROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC-B SHS Oil&Gas 10/12/2014 28/09/2015 292 2,098.00 1,545.00 6,500.04 6,109.00 0.00 96.44 -22.81% -16.79% STOP LOSS

HUNTING PLC Oil&Gas Services 07/04/2015 28/09/2015 174 540.00 402.00 6,962.00 6,109.00 0.00 15.23 -23.40% -11.14% STOP LOSSANTOFAGASTA PLC Mining 17/03/2015 28/09/2015 195 690.50 494.00 6,962.00 6,109.00 0.00 8.60 -27.56% -15.30% STOP LOSS

NATIONAL EXPRESS GROUP PLC Transportation 16/01/2015 09/11/2015 297 259.60 314.00 6,550.27 6,357.54 0.00 10.64 26.12% 28.95% PROFITROLLS-ROYCE HOLDINGS PLC Aerospace/Defense 18/11/2014 12/11/2015 359 845.00 567.00 6,709.13 6,238.23 0.00 23.37 -30.99% -23.97% STOP LOSS

IMI PLC Miscellaneous Manufactur 10/12/2014 11/01/2016 397 1,229.00 935.00 6,500.04 6,238.23 0.00 37.90 -21.50% -17.47% STOP LOSSASHMORE GROUP PLC Diversified Finan Serv 08/05/2015 12/11/2015 188 319.90 239.93 7,046.82 6,014.00 0.00 12.10 -22.05% -7.40% STOP LOSS

KINGFISHER PLC Retail 18/11/2014 20/01/2016 428 302.20 325.00 6,709.13 5,673.00 0.00 10.03 11.24% 26.68% PROFITHSBC HOLDINGS PLC Banks 16/01/2015 09/02/2016 389 593.00 432.50 6,550.27 5,632.19 0.00 33.33 -22.72% -8.71% STOP LOSS

SAINSBURY (J) PLC Food 10/12/2014 21/03/2016 467 226.40 278.75 6,500.04 6,184.58 0.00 12.20 30.14% 34.99% PROFITADMIRAL GROUP PLC Insurance 07/10/2015 21/03/2016 166 1,521.00 1,921.00 6,326.16 6,184.58 0.00 0.00 26.30% 28.54% PROFIT

BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO PLC Agriculture 17/06/2015 05/04/2016 293 3,511.00 4,118.00 6,726.57 6,091.23 0.00 154.00 22.67% 32.11% PROFITELECTROCOMPONENTS PLC Electronics 14/07/2015 05/04/2016 266 209.90 264.10 6,708.00 6,091.23 0.00 5.00 28.89% 38.09% PROFIT

WPP PLC Advertising 07/09/2015 05/04/2016 211 1,330.00 1,653.00 6,086.00 6,091.23 0.00 15.91 25.79% 25.70% PROFITCOMPASS GROUP PLC Food Service 13/08/2015 05/04/2016 236 1,038.00 1,246.00 6,571.19 6,091.23 0.00 19.60 22.35% 29.65% PROFIT

RIO TINTO PLC Mining 20/01/2016 14/04/2016 85 1,577.00 2,242.50 5,673.58 6,365.10 0.00 74.21 49.22% 37.03% PROFITROYAL MAIL PLC Transportation 11/02/2015 14/04/2016 428 438.00 490.00 6,820.02 6,365.10 0.00 21.30 17.59% 24.26% PROFIT

GLAXOSMITHKLINE PLC Pharmaceuticals 02/10/2014 14/04/2016 560 1,417.50 1,502.00 6,536.29 6,365.10 0.00 142.00 17.76% 20.38% PROFITNATIONAL GRID PLC Gas 17/06/2015 14/04/2016 302 860.00 1,002.00 6,726.57 6,365.10 0.00 15.00 18.58% 23.95% PROFIT

TALKTALK TELECOM GROUP Telecommunications 21/12/2015 28/04/2016 129 213.00 273.00 6,034.84 6,250.00 0.00 0.00 28.17% 24.60% PROFITCOBHAM LTD Aerospace/Defense 21/03/2016 29/04/2016 39 218.00 160.00 6,175.00 6,123.00 0.00 8.13 -23.76% -22.92% STOP LOSS

MARKS & SPENCER GROUP PLC Retail 07/10/2015 27/05/2016 233 515.00 386.70 6,326.16 6,260.00 0.00 6.80 -23.91% -22.86% STOP LOSSCARILLION PLC Engineering&Construction 13/04/2015 27/06/2016 441 327.30 235.90 7,064.30 5,918.00 0.00 30.40 -20.55% -4.32% STOP LOSS

EASYJET PLC Airlines 09/06/2015 27/06/2016 384 1,563.00 1,020.00 6,753.80 5,918.00 0.00 55.20 -32.35% -19.98% STOP LOSSROTORK PLC Electronics 26/02/2016 04/07/2016 129 159.00 222.00 6,012.81 6,519.50 0.00 3.10 42.40% 33.97% PROFIT

TATE & LYLE PLC Food 17/03/2015 08/07/2016 479 615.50 687.00 6,962.00 6,475.00 0.00 47.80 21.01% 28.01% PROFITDIAGEO PLC Beverages 17/09/2015 08/07/2016 295 1,785.00 2,128.00 6,213.50 6,475.00 0.00 22.60 20.74% 16.54% PROFIT

JOHNSON MATTHEY PLC Chemicals 04/11/2015 20/07/2016 259 2,631.00 3,175.00 6,655.00 6,475.00 0.00 222.44 31.82% 34.53% PROFITG4S PLC Commercial Services 04/05/2016 29/09/2016 148 189.00 229.50 6,655.00 6,860.00 0.00 3.59 23.78% 20.70% PROFIT

BURBERRY GROUP PLC Apparel 21/12/2015 10/10/2016 294 1,192.00 1,464.00 6,034.84 7,057.00 0.00 37.00 26.75% 9.82% PROFITPRUDENTIAL PLC Insurance 26/02/2016 14/11/2016 262 1,226.50 1,527.50 6,012.81 6,772.30 0.00 45.85 29.38% 16.75% PROFIT

TALKTALK TELECOM GROUP Telecommunications 08/07/2016 24/11/2016 139 212.50 159.38 6,510.00 6,817.00 0.00 5.29 -23.09% -27.80% STOP LOSSCAPITA PLC Commercial Services 29/09/2016 09/12/2016 71 660.00 495.00 6,860.00 6,938.25 0.00 11.10 -23.72% -24.86% STOP LOSS

SAINSBURY (J) PLC Food 07/08/2016 11/01/2017 157 224.50 272.00 6,510.00 7,291.79 0.00 3.60 23.13% 11.12% PROFITDUNELM GROUP PLC Retail 26/02/2015 18/01/2017 692 925.00 677.00 6,949.73 7,164.00 0.00 148.10 -12.86% -15.94% STOP LOSS

PEARSON PLC Media 04/11/2015 18/01/2017 441 867.50 579.00 6,383.61 7,164.00 0.00 52.00 -29.00% -41.23% STOP LOSSTAYLOR WIMPEY PLC Home Builders 29/06/2016 18/01/2017 203 128.00 173.00 6,383.61 7,164.00 0.00 0.53 35.72% 23.49% PROFIT

LLOYDS BANKING GROUP PLC Banks 04/08/2016 24/01/2017 173 52.00 64.52 6,510.00 7,121.00 0.00 0.85 26.14% 16.75% PROFITGKN LTD Auto Parts&Equipment 14/08/2015 06/03/2017 570 306.00 372.40 6,571.19 7,344.50 0.00 8.75 25.28% 13.51% PROFIT

BRITVIC PLC Beverages 01/11/2016 27/04/2017 177 558.00 669.00 6,905.00 7,192.00 0.00 17.50 23.77% 19.62% PROFITSTAGECOACH GROUP PLC Transportation 22/03/2016 11/07/2017 476 252.00 185.10 6,155.00 7,329.76 0.00 11.70 -22.97% -42.06% STOP LOSS

NEXT PLC Retail 04/05/2016 11/07/2017 433 5,020.00 3,617.00 6,160.00 7,329.76 0.00 353.00 -22.50% -41.49% STOP LOSSGREENE KING LTD Retail 14/07/2015 11/09/2017 790 865.00 575.00 6,708.00 7,387.00 0.00 87.05 -26.09% -36.21% STOP LOSS

DOMINO'S PIZZA GROUP PLC Retail 02/08/2017 10/10/2017 69 264.00 333.50 7,364.80 7,465.00 0.00 3.75 28.15% 26.79% PROFITBABCOCK INTL GROUP PLC Commercial Services 11/02/2015 13/11/2017 1006 1,050.00 753.00 6,818.17 7,415.18 0.00 72.05 -23.00% -31.76% STOP LOSS

SKY PLC Media 31/08/2016 12/12/2017 468 850.00 1,002.00 6,801.00 7,457.77 0.00 20.95 20.86% 11.20% PROFITIG GROUP HOLDINGS PLC Diversified Finan Serv 03/01/2017 12/12/2017 343 495.00 675.50 7,127.00 7,457.76 0.00 32.30 45.99% 41.35% PROFIT

ROYAL MAIL PLC Transportation 09/03/2017 12/12/2017 278 401.00 444.90 7,288.50 7,462.39 0.00 23.30 17.79% 15.41% PROFITINMARSAT PLC Telecommunications 30/01/2017 12/12/2017 316 610.00 443.10 7,070.00 7,462.39 0.00 36.66 -22.72% -28.27% STOP LOSS

INTU PROPERTIES PLC REITS 08/11/2017 27/12/2017 49 211.70 250.60 7,481.00 7,620.68 0.00 0.00 18.38% 16.51% PROFITPETROFAC LTD Oil&Gas 06/06/2017 25/01/2018 233 353.00 557.00 7,465.00 7,663.00 0.00 8.47 61.67% 59.02% PROFIT

JOHNSON MATTHEY PLC Chemicals 13/08/2017 31/01/2018 171 2,865.00 3,454.00 7,366.00 7,549.50 0.00 21.75 21.48% 18.99% PROFITSHIRE PLC Biotechnology 07/07/2017 08/02/2018 216 4,189.00 3,117.00 7,255.00 7,220.00 0.00 3.85 -25.52% -25.04% STOP LOSS

BT GROUP PLC Telecommunications 31/03/2017 16/02/2018 322 310.00 228.40 7,275.00 7,294.70 0.00 15.40 -22.47% -22.74% STOP LOSSAGGREKO PLC Commercial Services 02/05/2017 06/03/2018 308 879.00 654.40 7,201.00 7,184.00 0.00 9.38 -24.75% -24.51% STOP LOSS

GREENCORE GROUP PLC Food 04/10/2017 14/03/2018 161 189.60 127.28 7,422.00 7,138.78 0.00 3.37 -31.65% -27.84% STOP LOSSWILLIAM HILL PLC Entertainment 31/05/2016 20/03/2018 658 314.00 336.00 6,280.00 6,955.00 0.00 16.76 13.04% 2.29% PROFIT

PENNON GROUP PLC Water 08/03/2018 05/06/2018 89 629.00 770.00 7,159.00 7,660.00 0.00 0.00 22.42% 15.42% PROFITGLAXOSMITHKLINE PLC Pharmaceuticals 02/01/2018 15/06/2018 164 1,315.00 1,556.00 7,655.20 7,633.91 0.00 42.00 22.23% 22.51% PROFITVODAFONE GROUP PLC Telecommunications 16/01/2015 03/09/2018 1326 228.30 167.00 6,550.27 7,470.00 0.00 0.56 -26.67% -40.71% STOP LOSS

PLAYTECH PLC Software 03/08/2018 24/12/2018 143 542.00 397.70 7,620.00 6,666.00 0.00 0.12 -26.61% -14.09% STOP LOSSGREENE KING LTD Retail 03/09/2018 07/01/2019 126 479.00 576.00 7,510.00 6,790.00 0.00 8.80 22.50% 32.09% PROFIT

CENTAMIN PLC Mining 20/09/2018 07/01/2019 109 97.00 136.00 7,387.00 7,191.00 0.00 0.00 40.21% 42.86% PROFITMERLIN ENTERTAINMENTS LTD Entertainment 06/12/2017 20/03/2019 469 357.30 371.10 7,328.50 7,327.00 0.00 7.50 6.09% 6.11% PROFIT

CREST NICHOLSON HOLDINGS Home Builders 09/07/2018 20/03/2019 254 383.40 397.60 7,651.00 7,327.00 0.00 11.20 6.82% 11.06% PROFITIMPERIAL BRANDS PLC Agriculture 06/04/2018 20/03/2019 348 2,528.00 2,634.00 7,140.00 7,327.00 0.00 187.79 12.55% 9.93% PROFIT

BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO PLC Agriculture 29/01/2019 20/03/2019 50 2,450.00 3,214.50 6,801.00 7,299.00 0.00 0.00 31.20% 23.88% PROFITWPP PLC Advertising 24/04/2018 28/03/2019 338 1,129.00 807.20 7,400.00 7,161.00 0.00 60.00 -24.49% -21.26% STOP LOSS

ITV PLC Media 05/12/2016 28/03/2019 843 169.00 125.45 6,701.00 7,161.00 0.00 20.20 -15.69% -22.56% STOP LOSSCENTRICA PLC Gas 03/04/2019 31/07/2019 119 112.60 76.50 7,354.00 7,586.90 0.00 8.40 -26.58% -29.75% STOP LOSS

MITCHELLS & BUTLERS PLC Retail 03/02/2016 27/08/2019 1301 272.30 352.50 5,867.00 7,045.00 0.00 15.00 37.00% 16.92% PROFITFLUTTER ENTERTAINMENT PLC Entertainment 16/10/2018 30/09/2019 349 6,270.00 7,572.00 7,052.00 7,395.00 0.00 200.00 24.74% 19.88% PROFITINTL CONSOLIDATED AIRLINE-DI Airlines 23/08/2019 04/11/2019 73 419.90 549.70 7,100.00 7,302.00 0.00 0.00 30.91% 28.07% PROFITMARKS & SPENCER GROUP PLC Retail 23/08/2019 27/02/2020 188 218.40 165.25 7,420.00 6,895.00 0.00 3.90 -22.96% -15.88% STOP LOSSGALLIFORD TRY HOLDINGS PLC Engineering&Construction 23/08/2019 09/12/2020 474 630.00 766.10 6,840.00 7,232.00 0.00 36.57 29.10% 23.37% STOP LOSS

CINEWORLD GROUP PLC Entertainment 11/08/2019 27/02/2020 200 218.00 158.40 7,227.00 6,895.00 0.00 5.00 -25.63% -21.04% STOP LOSSIMPERIAL BRANDS PLC Agriculture 20/02/2020 09/03/2020 18 1,683.00 1,262.00 7,350.00 5,400.00 0.00 0.00 -25.01% 1.52% STOP LOSS

PRUDENTIAL PLC Insurance 02/09/2019 22/07/2020 324 1,375.00 1,225.00 7,315.00 6,225.00 0.00 313.21 15.37% 30.27% PROFITSYNTHOMER PLC Chemicals 29/11/2019 28/07/2020 242 303.70 310.00 7,420.00 6,120.00 0.00 0.00 2.07% 19.59% PROFITRIGHTMOVE PLC Internet 07/04/2020 21/09/2020 167 484.60 623.80 5,946.00 6,007.00 0.00 0.00 28.72% 27.70% PROFIT

HISCOX LTD Insurance 13/05/2020 16/09/2020 126 704.00 906.00 5,586.00 6,075.00 0.00 0.00 28.69% 19.94% PROFITBABCOCK INTL GROUP PLC Defence 01/07/2020 16/09/2020 77 309.00 231.50 6,092.00 6,075.00 0.00 0.00 -25.08% -24.80% STOP LOSS

MEGGITT PLC Aerospace 11/06/2020 10/11/2020 152 289.60 416.00 6,076.70 6,296.85 0.00 0.00 43.65% 40.02% PROFITITV PLC Media 12/08/2020 16/11/2020 96 65.00 96.50 6,280.12 6,421.29 0.00 0.00 48.46% 46.21% PROFIT

NATIONAL EXPRESS PLC Transport 24/09/2020 10/11/2020 47 132.25 217.00 5,822.78 6,296.85 0.00 0.00 64.08% 55.94% PROFITHSBC PLC Banks 20/10/2020 04/12/2020 45 306.00 423.00 5,889.25 6,479.60 .0.00 0.00 38.24% 28.21% PROFIT

JOHN WOOD GROUP PLC Oil&Gas Services 02/09/2019 11/12/2020 466 359.00 322.00 7,191.60 6,580.60 0.00 15.93 -6.14% 2.35% STOP LOSSJOHNSON MATTHEY PLC Chemicals 04/01/2020 26/01/2020 22 2,406.00 3,004.00 6,650.00 6,643.00 0.00 0.00 24.85% 24.96% PROFIT

BT GROUP Telecommunications 15/02/2021 06/04/2021 50 124.00 155.00 6,650.00 6,821.00 0.00 0.00 25.00% 22.43% PROFITLLOYDS BANKING GROUP PLC Banks 07/04/2020 15/04/2021 373 30.25 43.44 5,621.00 6,924.00 0.00 0.00 43.60% 20.42% PROFIT

Ave Total Portfolio Return per Stock 299 8.40% 7.53%

****The entry price of 399.2 originally on the HSL reflects the pre 9 -11 share consolidation before the 73p return of capital. The

total return of 17.63% is reflective of all corporate actions since entry on 2/10/2014.

Note: Please be aware that the Petrofac position should be half the usual size due to the level of volatility in its recent movement as recommended in the Buy Alert.


We passionately believe that dividends really,really matter. William Thorndike in his fascinating book

'The Outsiders- Eight Unconventional CEOs and Their Radically RationalBlueprint for Success' examined one of the most impor tant aspects of running a business a CEO must undertake: Capital Allocation. He summarised how a CEO deploys capitalin order to best utilise cash flow generated from his or her business operations. Essentially,CEOs have 5 ways of deploying capital:

• Investing in existing operations• Acquiring other businesses• Repaying debt• Repurchasing their own stock (buybacks)• Paying dividends

Dividend payments are a crucial operation in creating stakeholder wealth. It is this aspect of a business that we are so fixated by - the propensity for a company to produce and continue to grow dividends so that we may accrue wealth over a generation. But as readers will know we can't just grab stocks with the highest yield for fear that this signals some cash flow or even solvency issues for the firm. So it is with this very real threat in mind we explore only well-capitalised FTSE 350 companies.

This letter's purpose is to help inform readers on dividend investing so that they can construct a portfolio of sound UK dividend stocks based on our recommendations. Our prerequisite is that any stocks selected for this let ter

must be liquid,well-capitalised with a strong free cash flow and a progressive dividend policy.

Our System

• Every month we will provide a write up of 3 to 4 stocks untilwe create a portfolio of 25 UK dividend stocks. This will be the HindeSight UK Dividend Portfolio #1

• You wiII bealerted by subscriber email intra-month when these stocks become a buy. Timing is critical to the strategy, not only buying quality stocks but buying them at the right time

• Theentry points willthen be recorded in the next month ly in the HindeSight UK Dividend Portfolio section and the stock(s) wr itten up in full

• We will run our winners but tend to rotate every 6 months depending on specific criteria which would elevate cheaper companies into the portfolio relative to stocks that had performed

• The basis for stock and portfolio selection is derived from our quantitative systematic methodology which screens these companies using the Hinde Dividend Value Matrix, (HDVMdl), a proprietary stock-rating system

• In the section on ETPs we will highlight our invest ment philosophy and the investment process behind our stock selections. This is the b*is of our dynamic risk and money management in our portfolio con struction for you. You can also read the stand-alone Hinde Dividend Value Strategy document to see the methodology behind our stock selection.

APPENDIX I

THE WAY WE THINK


“We have met the enemy, and he is us.” Walt Kelly

Our key to long-term performance investing is premised on the following:

• Systematic rule-based strategy• Systematic risk and money management• Occam’s razor, aka ‘K.I.S.S.’, Keep It Simple Stupid• Consistency• Discipline

All our investment ideas are rule-based methodologies driven by systematic and quantitative models.

Hinde Dividend Value Strategy

Hinde Dividend Value Strategy seeks to generate a total return from an actively managed basket of UK dividend-paying stocks. The strategy selects 20 highly liquid, mid-to-large capitalised stocks on an equally-weighted basis, which offer the highest total return potential. The 50%

Hedge version of the strategy would then be subject to a strategic Beta Hedge*, which is designed to cover 50% of the value of the UK stock basket at all times.

The 50% hedge is maintained using UK equity benchmark indices to reduce exposure to overall market volatility, but without reducing overall total returns to the market over the long run. The Hinde Dividend Value Strategy (100% Hedge) would deploy a full beta hedge at all times.

Hinde Dividend Value Matrix ®

The strategy employs a quantitative, systematic methodology, whereby FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 constituent stocks are screened using the Hinde Dividend Value Matrix®, a proprietary stock-rating system. We use the same system to select stocks for any of our strategies, long-only, 50% Hedge or 100% Hedge. The only difference is clearly the extent of the hedge on the exposure to the overall market.

APPENDIX II

HOW WE THINK


The basic premise of the strategy is to accelerate returns by selecting relatively high yielding stocks that offer the highest potential for capital revaluation. The dynamic rotation of stocks each quarter enables us to sell stocks where the capital revaluation and dividend has been captured, and use this additional capital to invest in more undervalued quality companies. If successful, this cycle of capture and re-investment offers the chance to significantly improve the total return generated by the Dynamic Portfolio.

The basis of the stock selection process is the Hinde Dividend Value Matrix®, which is a derived process that looks at 3 crucial variables:

* Beta is the stock’s sensitivity to market movements, e.g. if a share has a beta of 1.5 its price tends to move by 1.5% for each 1% move in the index

1. Dividend Screen

The top ranking stocks will be those offering a relatively high dividend. A composite of the following criteria comprises the Dividend Rank:

• Relative Dividend Yield• Dividend Capture• Payout ratios

The Relative Dividend Yield assesses if a company pays a higher dividend than the Index it derives from (the FTSE 100 or FTSE 250). The Dividend Capture criteria explain how quickly and how much of the dividend is paid at any point in time. The Payout Ratio gives a snapshot of whether a company will be able to maintain and grow its dividend. It helps us to assess how much of a company’s revenue, profit or cash flow is paid out in dividends.

The lower the amount of dividends paid out as a percentage of profits, the healthier future dividend potential will be. History is for once a good guide as to whether companies will continue to pay and grow their dividends. A stock with an excessively high yield relative to its sector or the overall market is invariably showing signs of heightened risk to its dividend sustainability and often the viability of the company itself. The screen incorporates a limit on yield dispersions from the overall market.

The strategy is emphatically not a yield chaser. It is the Performance and Value screens that are used to assess the total return potential of a stock by analysis of how undervalued it is relative to its fundamentals, sector and overall market index.

2. Performance Screen

The top ranking stocks have the poorest relative

performance to their index over multiple time horizons.

A composite rank of the following criteria provides the Performance Rank:

• Stock relative performance ranked over multiple time periods

• Average of time periods taken to select rank of stocks

3. Value Screen

The top ranking stocks by key fundamental criteria show stable fundamentals and exhibit upside momentum growth potential. The following are some of the criteria that provide the Value Rank:

• Value - Price to Book (intangible book adjustment), Free Cash Flow metrics

• Quality - Return on Investment and Earnings metrics

• Financial Stability - Debt levels, Coverage and Payout ratios

• Volatility - Stock variance, Dividend variance

• Momentum - Sales Growth, Cash flow metrics

• Liquidity - Minimum market capitalisation relative to index, Shares outstanding

Implementing the Hinde Dividend Value Matrix ®

The FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 stocks are ranked using the Dividend, Performance and Value screens. An equally-weighted composite rank is then taken of these 3 ranks, which provides a final ranking from which a selection of 20 stocks is made for the portfolio.

The stocks with the highest ranking are compiled for the FTSE 100 and the FTSE 250. The top 10 from each index are then taken, subject to diversification rules, which entail that normally only 1 stock per sector per index can be invested in. For example, if the top 10 stocks are all mining companies, the selection process would take the first of these and then move on to select the next top stock from another sector. As long as a stock has the highest score in its sector, the fact that it has appeared in the final ranking means it is already eligible for investment. In exceptional circumstances, it may be that more than one stock has to be selected from an individual sector.


DISCLAIMER

This newsletter is intended to give general advice only on the importance of dividends within the equity space. The investments mentioned are not necessarily suitable for any individual, and you should use this information in conjunction with other advice and research to determine its suitability for your own circumstances and risk preferences. The value of all securities and investments, and the income from them, can fall as well as rise. Your investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value and you may get back nothing at all. You should not buy any of the securities or other investments mentioned with money you cannot afford to lose. In some cases there may be significant charges which may reduce the value of your investment. You run an extra risk of losing money when you buy shares in certain securities where there is a big difference between the buying price and the selling price. If you have to sell them immediately, you may get back much less than you paid for them. The price may change quickly, particularly if the securities have an element of gearing. In the case of investment trusts and certain other funds, they may use or propose to use the borrowing of money to increase holdings of investments or invest in other securities with a similar strategy and as a result movements in the price of the securities may be more volatile than the movements in the price of underlying investments. Some investments may involve a high degree of ‘gearing’ or ‘leverage’. This means that a small movement in the price of the underlying asset may have a disproportionately dramatic effect on your investment. A relatively small adverse movement in the price of the underlying asset can result in the loss of the whole of your original investment. Changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value or price of the investment in sterling terms, and you should be aware they may be additional dealing, transaction and custody charges for certain instruments traded in a currency other than sterling. Some investments may not be quoted on a recognised investment exchange and as a result you may find them to be ‘illiquid’. You may not be able to trade your illiquid investments, and in certain circumstances it may be difficult or impossible to sell or realise the investment. Investment in any of the assets mentioned may have tax consequences and on these you should consult your tax adviser. The opinions of the authors and/or interviewees of/in each article are their own, and are not necessarily those of the publisher. We have taken all reasonable care to ensure that all statements of fact and opinion contained in this publication are fair and accurate in all material respects. All data is from sources we consider reliable but its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Investors should seek appropriate professional advice if any points are unclear. Ben Davies and Mark Mahaffey the editors of this newsletter, are responsible for the research ideas contained within. They or any of the contributors or other associates of the publisher may have a beneficial interest in any of the investments mentioned in this newsletter.

Disclosures of holdings: None relevant to any content discussed within this issue of the newsletter

This score is derived from 3 inputs that have been obtained from all the external analysts at leading institutions who are covering the stock:

1. The 12 month target price in relation to current price

2. The number of analysts covering the stock

3. The recommendation analysis, e.g. STRONG SELL, SELL, UNDERPERFORM or HOLD

This score is used to observe the other analysts’ view of the stock and is helpful when understanding the methodology that other analysts use to determine their 12-month target price. We ultimately get a blend of price targets that is based on different valuation metrics.

EAS Score Output:

1. The combined score will vary from 30-702. A stock with a lowest score of 30 shows the majority

of analysts not only have a full sell/underweight recommendation, but also a low 12-month target

price in relation to current price.3. A stock with the highest score of 70 shows the majority

of analysts not only have a full buy/overweight recommendation, but also a high 12-month target price in relation to current price.

Note:

On a standalone basis, the EAS score must be viewed in the following context:

• Equity analysts issue far more positive recommendations than negative

• If all analysts are overwhelmingly bearish or bullish, then this can signal a contrarian position be held, but this is determinate on the where the stock is valued.

However, in conjunction with the HDVM ®, we have found the score to be useful when it is high or momentum is turning higher, as this suggests that the stock offers deep value.

EXTERNAL ANALYST SCORE (EAS)

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