sensitivity to market risk · sensitivity to market risk bank analysis and examination school ....
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Sensitivity to Market Risk
Bank Analysis and Examination School
Sensitivity to Market Risk Objectives
Background Review Four kinds of interest rate risk Short-term and long-term views Risk measurement models Regulatory guidance
Assign the “S” rating
Market Risk Background
SR 93-69: “Risk Management and Internal Controls of Trading Activities”
SR 95-17: “Risk Management and Internal
Controls of Non Trading Activities” SR 95-51: “Rating Risk Management
Processes and Internal Controls”
Market Risk Background
SR 96-38 “Uniform Financial Institutions Rating System”
“Sensitivity to Market Risk” rating Rating Based On: Level of exposure to market risk Quality of risk management Nature and complexity of activities
SR 97-4 “...Common Questions...”
Sensitivity to Market Risk
Principal form of market risk affecting banks is Interest Rate Risk
The possibility that changes in interest rates will adversely affect the banking organization.
Four Kinds of Interest Rate Risk
Interest rate risk is the principal form of market risk for banks. Four sources include:
Mismatch risk Basis risk Options risk Yield curve risk
Interest Rate Risk: Two Views
Short-term: Effect on net interest income. Earnings-at-Risk Gap analysis Net interest income simulation
Long-term: Effect on the net present value of future earnings.
Economic Value of Equity-at-Risk Duration of equity analysis Present value scenario analysis
GAP ANALYSIS
Gap Analysis
Rate-sensitive assets (RSA) and liabilities (RSL) are slotted according to repricing date. RSL are subtracted from RSA to yield
the “gap”. The gap number can be either positive
or negative.
Estimate Earnings-at-Risk Using Gap Analysis
EAR = (Rate change) x (Cumulative gap) = (1%) x ($4,250 MM) = $42.5 MM
Gap Analysis
Assumptions: Time bucket selection Slotting assets and liabilities Slotting non-maturity items Static balance sheet Parallel changes in the yield curve
Gap Analysis
Weaknesses: Short-term focus Does not capture basis, option, or yield
curve risk Inappropriate for complex balance
sheets
NET INTEREST INCOME SIMULATION
Net Interest Income Simulation
Models calculate expected income using: Various rate scenarios Projected balances for assets and liabilities Other assumptions
Rate changes should be large enough to reveal sources of risk Complexity of the model can vary
Net Interest Income Simulation
Advantages: Projects net interest income Addresses assumptions Can capture mismatch, basis, and
option risk Can be used for strategic planning and
“what if?” scenarios
Net Interest Income Simulation
Weaknesses: Short-term focus (12 - 24 months) Only captures option risk when options
are “in the money” Difficult to project far into the future Results can be shaded by management Apparent precision can be misleading
ECONOMIC VALUE-AT-RISK
MODELS
Economic Value-at-Risk Models
Duration of Equity Analysis and Present Value Scenario Analysis measure the economic-value-of-equity at risk to changes in rates.
Duration of Equity Analysis
The weighted average duration of assets, less the weighted average duration of liabilities, plus the net weighted average duration of off-balance sheet items, divided by equity. DE = DA(A) - DL(L) + DOBS (E)
Duration of Equity Analysis
Duration of equity calculation can be used as a forecast of the sensitivity of the economic value of equity to a change in rates in the same way as the duration of a bond can be used to predict its price.
Change in EVE = (-DE) x (% Change in Rates)
Duration of Equity Analysis
Weaknesses: Only accurate for small rate changes. Duration of different instruments will
change at different rates over time. Does not capture basis or option risk.
Present Value Scenario
Analysis
Like the duration of equity model except: Calculates current net present value of each asset,
liability, and off-balance sheet item Then recalculates the net present value of each
instrument for a given rate scenario Finally, the net present value of equity is calculated:
PVE = PVA - PVL + PVOBS
Present Value Scenario
Analysis
Advantages: Long-term measure of interest rate risk Captures mismatch, basis, yield curve,
and option risk Accurate even for larger rate change
scenarios (200 b.p.)
Risk Measurement Models Review
QUESTIONS? Models?
Assumptions?
Assigning the “S” Rating
Component reflects: Level of exposure to market risk Quality of market risk management Nature and complexity of activities
Evaluated in relation to the adequacy of
the institution’s capital and earnings
Level of Exposure Assigning the “S” Rating
Cumulative Gap As % of total assets or capital
Earnings at Risk % change for given shift in interest rates
Economic Value of Equity at Risk Change (as % of assets) for given shift in
interest rates
Quality of Risk Management Assigning the “S” Rating
Management’s ability to identify, measure, monitor, and control market risk Board oversight Policies and procedures MIS: assumptions, adequacy Internal controls and audit Credit, liquidity, operational,
legal, and reputational risk
Nature & Complexity of Activities Assigning the “S” Rating
Nontrading activities Hedging Trading activities
Nontrading Activities Assigning the “S” Rating
Factors to Consider: Long-term fixed rate assets Complex investments Options Funding sources Nonmaturity deposits Mortgage banking and servicing assets
Hedging Activities Assigning the “S” Rating
Instruments to Consider: Forward based contracts Option contracts Option-based agreements Short sales
Trading Activities Assigning the “S” Rating
Factors to Consider: Types of trading Market risk exposure Market risk limits
“S” Rating Write-up Guidelines
Conclusion with support and a rating Quantity of risk Quality of oversight, MIS, and controls Recommendations
QUESTIONS?