sep 2014 - danske bank...• administrative & support services is forecast to be one of the...

1 Prepared September 2014

Sep 2014

Forecast summary The recovery in Northern Ireland’s economy is well underway with recent indicators suggesting a broad based recovery. Labour market conditions have continued to improve with job creation spread across the majority of sectors. Economic output is expected to increase by 2.6% in 2014 and 2.3% in 2015.

Overview The recovery in Northern Ireland’s economy is well underway with recent indicators revealing a broad based recovery. Employment increased by almost 25,000 jobs in the year to Q2 2014, with job creation being spread across the majority of sectors including agriculture, manufacturing, construction and services. The latest claimant count unemployment data signalled further improvements within the labour market, with a further fall of 1,400 claimants in July 2014; the largest monthly fall since October 1999. Recent FDI data also revealed that NI enjoyed the fastest growth of all UK regions when it came to inward investment projects – in NI the number of projects grew by 32% year on year in 2013-14. Recent improvements in the housing market have provided a welcome lift for the construction sector and helped to boost consumer confidence. The Danske Bank Consumer Confidence Survey reported that confidence levels remained healthy, well above the position 12 months ago. The prospects for the rest of 2014 and into 2015 remain favourable as the economy continues to strengthen, with the Danske Bank forecast suggesting economic output will grow by 2.6% in 2014 and 2.3% in 2015.

Growth in the NI economy will be underpinned by a number of factors which include:

• The housing market recovery - House prices increased by 4% in the quarter and 10% in the year to 2014 Q2. Not only are house prices rising but housing market activity is growing, with more than 4,000 transactions taking place per quarter. The housing market recovery is expected to continue with house price growth expected to reach almost 10% in 2014 and 4.5% in 2015. However, interest rates are expected to rise in early 2015, and this is likely to squeeze household disposable incomes over the medium term.

GVA growth rates - NIQ on Q growth

Y on Y growth

Annual growth

Q1 2013 -0.4 0.4Q2 2013 0.8 1.3Q3 2013 1.9 1.7Q4 2013 1.1 2.1Q1 2014 0.2 2.7Q2 2014 0.4 2.3Q3 2014 0.8 2.5Q4 2014 1.3 2.8Q1 2015 0.1 2.7Q2 2015 0.2 2.5Q3 2015 0.6 2.2Q4 2015 0.8 1.7

GVA growth rates - UKQ on Q growth

Y on Y growth

Annual growth

Q1 2013 0.5 0.9Q2 2013 0.5 1.7Q3 2013 0.9 2.0Q4 2013 0.7 2.7Q1 2014 0.9 3.1Q2 2014 0.8 3.3Q3 2014 0.8 3.2Q4 2014 0.6 3.2Q1 2015 0.6 2.9Q2 2015 0.6 2.6Q3 2015 0.6 2.5Q4 2015 0.6 2.4Source: Oxford Economics

2.6

1.4

2.6

2.3

1.8

3.2

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

Q1 2008

Q3 2008

Q1 2009

Q3 2009

Q1 2010

Q3 2010

Q1 2011

Q3 2011

Q1 2012

Q3 2012

Q1 2013

Q3 2013

Q1 2014

Q3 2014

Q1 2015

Q3 2015

%

GVA growth (%)

NI

UK


Sep 2014

• Improving economic performance in neighbouring regions. Northern Ireland’s two main trading partners (GB and RoI) have both experienced a significant pick-up in economic fortunes. The UK is expected to grow by 3.2 per cent this year and the Republic of Ireland is forecast to grow by 2.5 per cent. As both private demand and investment pick up in neighbouring economies - local opportunities for trade should expand.

• Growing business confidence and export demand - Various business surveys including the PMI signal growing optimism within the private sector with a pick-up in both activity and new business. We expect exports to continue to rise given the strengthening recovery in the Republic of Ireland, the North’s largest trading partner.

• Improving credit conditions - The latest Credit Conditions Survey published by the Bank of England

noted that the availability of secured and unsecured credit to households increased slightly during Quarter 2 2014. However, corporate credit availability for all company sizes was reported to have ‘increased significantly’ during Q2 2014 and this trend is expected to continue. As credit conditions ease and loan spreads fall we expect business investment to gain traction

• Household incomes to grow - Real disposable income and consumer expenditure are forecast to enjoy modest rises in 2014 and 2015. Falling unemployment will help aid wage growth, though given that the public sector is committed to pay restraint, earnings growth will be dependent upon the private sector. The strong pound and anticipated interest rate rises are forecast to keep a cap on inflation.

Recovery to be broad based Growth is expected to be experienced across a broad spectrum of sectors. Specifically, key drivers of growth such as investment and exports will aid expansion within the private sector. Administrative & support services and construction are forecast to experience the fastest rates of growth in 2014, each expanding by 5.1%. Strong GVA gains are also expected across a number of other sectors including professional services (5.0%), information & communications (4.4%) and manufacturing (4.3%) during 2014, far in excess of the 2.6% average for Northern Ireland. In terms of contribution to growth it is the manufacturing and wholesale & retail sectors that are the key contributors, each estimated to account for 0.6 percentage points of 2.6% increase in GVA in 2014. Government spending cuts are forecast to have a drag on economic growth, with the public administration & defence sector expected to contract in both 2014 and 2015.


Sep 2014

Labour market recovery to continue After contracting employment in 2011 and 2012, 2013 saw a turnaround in the labour market performance with growth of 1.6%. This positive momentum is set to gather pace throughout 2014 with the creation of over 22,000 jobs (2.8%), before employment growth slows to a much more subdued 0.5% in 2015. The high employment growth forecast in 2014 is expected to be driven by a broad range of sectors;

• The agricultural sector is predicted to expand by 13.9% creating 5,300 jobs during 2014 - far exceeding any other sector. Such growth is driven by strong self-employment data for the sector in Q1 2014. Following the robust employment growth in 2014, employment is expected to remain fairly flat during 2015 and 2016.

• Administrative & support services is forecast to be one of the fastest growing sectors in absolute terms

creating an additional 2,300 jobs in 2014, representing growth of 4.9%. In 2015 employment in this sector is forecast to increase by 1,500 jobs with growth of 3.1%. The sector has experienced sustained growth in recent years as businesses continue the trend of focusing on core activities in-house and outsourcing non-core functions to low cost centres such as Northern Ireland.

• Professional services are expected to grow at a rate of 6.7% in 2014 creating 2,100 jobs, followed by

further growth of 2.7% in 2015. Professional services are expected to be a key growth sector for the future as Northern Ireland’s economy becomes more ‘knowledge’ orientated with output and employment predicted to be driven by the export of professional services.

• The construction sector has started to make a tentative recovery, with forecasts suggesting a continued

rebound of the sector into the medium term. Employment in the construction sector is expected to grow by 3.7% in 2014 and 2.2% in 2015, with the addition of 1,900 jobs in 2014 and 1,100 jobs in 2015. The increase in housing market activity and the return to rising house prices will help drive the growth in the construction sector.

• Strong employment growth is expected in the ‘manufacturing’ and ‘wholesale & retail’ sectors in 2014,

GVA (%) 2014 2015Administrative & support 5.1 4.0Construction 5.1 4.4Professional, scientific & tech 5.0 3.6Information & communication 4.4 5.4Manufacturing 4.3 2.8Arts, entertainment & rec 3.5 2.9Water supply 3.5 1.3Agriculture, forestry & fishing 3.4 2.9Wholesale & retail trade 3.4 2.6Transportation & storage 3.3 2.9Other service activities 2.2 2.9Real estate activities 2.0 3.0Accommodation & food service 1.7 1.9Human health & social work 1.3 0.9Financial & insurance 0.7 2.9Education 0.7 -0.1Electricity, gas, steam & air 0.2 2.1Mining & Quarrying -0.3 1.8Public administration & defence -0.4 -0.4Total 2.6 2.3

-0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7

ManufacturingWholesale & retail trade

ConstructionProfessional, scientific & tech

Administrative & supportReal estate activities

Human health & social workInformation & communication

Transportation & storageArts, entertainment & rec

EducationOther service activities

Accommodation & food serviceAgriculture, forestry & fishing

Water supplyFinancial & insurance

Electricity, gas, steam & airMining & Quarrying

Public administration & defence

Sector contributions to GVA growth 2014

% annual contribution to GVA growthSource : Oxford Economics


Sep 2014

with the respective sectors creating 2,200 and 3,000 jobs. Moving into the medium-term growth in these sectors is expected to flatten out, with rising interest rates leading to a strengthening pound and dragging down on household’s disposable income.

Risk and uncertainties

• Geopolitical risk has surged in the last quarter with tensions between Ukraine and Russia escalating and the threat of a full Russian invasion ever present. The current trade war between the EU and Russia has raised much uncertainty, with the markets fearing the geopolitical risk could progress into full economic risk. The economic impact can already be seen within some parts of the agri-food sector.

• Terrorism and fighting has intensified across the Middle East and though oil prices have fallen since the

sharp rises experienced in June, markets are apprehensive that supplies could become disrupted in the future.

• The latest minutes from the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) show that despite a seventh

consecutive month of sub 2% inflation and low wage growth, the nine-member MPC was split (7-2 in favour of holding rates) for the first time in three years. However, most market analysts believe in spite of the split vote the low wage growth data will curtail the probability of any premature rise in interest rates.

• On September 18th we will see Scots heading to the polls to vote on independence. The Scottish

Independence vote has the ability to create volatility for the UK as a whole and disrupt investment, Besides losing some 8.3% of the UK population and roughly 10 per cent of current GDP, there would be currency and political ramifications too. At the time of writing this is by far the biggest risk to the forecast growth projections.

Employment(%) 2014 2015Agriculture, forestry & fishing 13.9 -0.5Professional, scientific & tech 6.6 2.6Real estate activities 6.3 3.1Electricity, gas, steam & air 5.8 0.9Information & communication 4.8 2.9Administrative & support 4.8 3.1Arts, entertainment & rec 4.6 3.6Other service activities 3.8 1.6Construction 3.7 2.2Manufacturing 2.5 -0.2Transportation & storage 2.2 2.4Wholesale & retail trade 2.2 0.0Human health & social work 1.3 0.1Education 1.3 -0.6Accommodation & food service 0.3 1.5Water supply -0.1 0.0Public administration & defence -0.2 -3.4Mining & Quarrying -0.9 1.0Financial & insurance -1.5 0.4Total 2.8 0.5

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

770

780

790

800

810

820

830

840

850

860

Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

GVA

(% y

ear o

n ye

ar g

row

th)

Empl

oym

ent (

000'

s)

Employment/GVA Total

Employment Total

GVA Total


Sep 2014

Annex Tables

Copyright Danske Bank / Oxford Economics. 2014. All rights reserved. The contents of this publication, ether in whole or in part, may not be reproduced, stored or transmitted without the prior written permission from Danske Bank / Oxford Economics

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Agriculture, forestry and fishing 362 322 317 310 320 324 325 311 320 325 338 342 339 338 341 344 350 348 347 346 Mining and quarrying 41 38 39 41 42 44 45 44 44 43 44 44 44 44 45 45 44 45 45 45 Manufacturing 3770 3840 3854 3855 3832 3899 3938 3953 4014 4068 4095 4123 4144 4173 4217 4219 4240 4282 4327 4328 Electricity, gas, & steam 280 291 297 305 299 305 308 311 304 304 307 310 310 312 313 315 317 318 320 321 Water supply; sewerage, waste management 293 295 296 299 296 301 303 304 309 311 312 313 312 313 316 319 316 319 322 325 Construction 1822 1769 1718 1668 1706 1729 1749 1783 1824 1793 1833 1873 1888 1904 1910 1916 1933 1950 1959 1967 Wholesale and retail trade 3997 3925 4000 4166 4051 4141 4234 4377 4251 4294 4358 4466 4406 4418 4459 4544 4479 4482 4485 4555 Transportation and storage 1064 1040 1054 1077 1057 1082 1095 1106 1112 1120 1124 1129 1149 1156 1156 1156 1170 1181 1191 1200 Accommodation and food service activities 730 746 742 748 723 726 736 735 730 743 747 752 746 753 760 768 759 766 774 781 Information and communication 892 896 915 937 929 947 962 973 962 985 1005 1025 1035 1038 1052 1066 1073 1097 1113 1129 Financial and insurance activities 1530 1490 1504 1509 1478 1443 1437 1437 1438 1446 1466 1486 1488 1490 1505 1521 1524 1529 1547 1565 Real estate activities 2422 2442 2436 2357 2406 2405 2400 2391 2424 2437 2458 2478 2499 2518 2540 2537 2565 2587 2609 2631 Professional, scientific and technical activities 1120 1148 1172 1188 1193 1202 1236 1265 1254 1270 1295 1320 1322 1324 1333 1343 1347 1369 1395 1422 Administrative and support service activities 943 951 1000 1044 1032 1007 1065 1090 1077 1088 1098 1142 1141 1127 1141 1191 1192 1194 1198 1202 Public administration and defence 3032 3024 2956 2908 3023 2975 2937 2933 2989 2943 2945 2947 2951 2938 2952 2936 2926 2937 2946 2955 Education 2292 2301 2228 2264 2232 2314 2216 2275 2301 2293 2237 2267 2279 2275 2250 2289 2293 2296 2253 2296 Human health and social work activities 3158 3183 3194 3231 3213 3209 3233 3234 3232 3246 3276 3306 3294 3289 3294 3299 3312 3325 3322 3318 Arts, entertainment and recreation 462 460 474 475 458 457 474 472 471 476 485 494 492 492 497 502 501 500 507 514 Other service activities 516 553 567 577 561 572 574 579 574 578 588 597 596 596 603 609 609 609 617 624Total 28725 28715 28763 28959 28851 29081 29266 29575 29630 29763 30012 30414 30435 30498 30686 30919 30950 31133 31274 31525

Year on Year Growth (%)

Agriculture, forestry and fishing 17.4 -24.5 -31.6 -25.9 -11.5 0.4 2.7 0.3 -0.2 0.3 4.0 9.8 6.1 4.2 0.9 0.6 3.3 2.7 1.6 0.6 Mining and quarrying -11.3 -13.5 -12.0 -4.8 2.6 14.7 13.6 9.6 3.2 -2.2 -1.9 0.0 1.5 2.0 1.8 1.7 -0.3 1.4 0.9 0.4 Manufacturing 0.0 2.5 2.6 0.4 1.7 1.5 2.2 2.6 4.7 4.3 4.0 4.3 3.2 2.6 3.0 2.3 2.3 2.6 2.6 2.6 Electricity, gas, & steam 5.3 13.5 15.7 15.3 6.8 5.0 3.6 1.8 1.8 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 2.0 2.4 2.1 1.7 2.3 2.0 2.0 1.9 Water supply; sewerage, waste management -3.6 -6.5 -4.8 -2.6 1.0 1.8 2.3 1.7 4.3 3.6 3.1 3.1 1.2 0.7 1.3 1.9 1.3 2.0 1.9 1.9 Construction -10.3 -13.9 -11.6 -12.0 -6.4 -2.3 1.8 6.9 6.9 3.7 4.8 5.1 3.5 6.2 4.2 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.7 Wholesale and retail trade -0.6 -1.0 1.9 4.8 1.4 5.5 5.8 5.1 4.9 3.7 2.9 2.0 3.6 2.9 2.3 1.7 1.7 1.4 0.6 0.2 Transportation and storage -5.6 -8.2 -3.8 -0.7 -0.6 4.1 4.0 2.7 5.2 3.4 2.6 2.1 3.3 3.2 2.8 2.4 1.8 2.2 3.0 3.8 Accommodation and food service activities 2.0 4.4 3.2 3.6 -0.9 -2.7 -0.8 -1.7 1.0 2.2 1.5 2.2 2.3 1.4 1.8 2.2 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.7 Information and communication 5.0 1.7 -0.3 4.1 4.2 5.7 5.2 3.8 3.6 4.0 4.5 5.4 7.5 5.4 4.7 3.9 3.7 5.7 5.8 5.9 Financial and insurance activities -3.9 -5.7 -4.1 0.5 -3.4 -3.2 -4.4 -4.8 -2.7 0.3 2.0 3.4 3.5 3.0 2.7 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.8 2.9 Real estate activities 1.6 6.9 6.6 -1.5 -0.7 -1.5 -1.5 1.5 0.8 1.3 2.4 3.6 3.1 3.4 3.4 2.4 2.7 2.7 2.7 3.7 Professional, scientific and technical activities 2.0 1.5 5.0 4.1 6.5 4.7 5.4 6.5 5.1 5.7 4.7 4.3 5.4 4.2 3.0 1.8 1.9 3.4 4.6 5.8 Administrative and support service activities 4.4 5.7 9.8 9.2 9.4 5.8 6.5 4.4 4.4 8.1 3.1 4.8 5.9 3.6 3.9 4.3 4.5 5.9 4.9 1.0 Public administration and defence 3.2 2.7 0.3 -2.5 -0.3 -1.6 -0.6 0.9 -1.1 -1.1 0.3 0.5 -1.3 -0.2 0.2 -0.4 -0.8 0.0 -0.2 0.6 Education 2.2 1.9 1.0 -0.6 -2.6 0.6 -0.5 0.5 3.1 -0.9 0.9 -0.4 -0.9 -0.8 0.6 1.0 0.6 0.9 0.1 0.3 Human health and social work activities 1.9 1.0 0.4 2.9 1.8 0.8 1.2 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.3 2.2 1.9 1.3 0.6 -0.2 0.6 1.1 0.8 0.6 Arts, entertainment and recreation 8.3 4.0 8.0 3.2 -0.9 -0.6 -0.1 -0.7 2.7 4.2 2.4 4.8 4.6 3.4 2.4 1.5 1.7 1.6 2.0 2.4 Other service activities 2.6 5.2 8.7 10.5 8.6 3.5 1.3 0.5 2.4 1.1 2.4 3.1 3.8 3.1 2.6 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.5Total 0.4 -0.1 0.5 0.5 0.4 1.3 1.7 2.1 2.7 2.3 2.5 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.7 2.1 1.9 2.0

2014 2016201520132012

Table 1: GVA (£m2010)


Sep 2014



Agriculture, forestry and fishing 41.5 39.8 39.4 38.9 38.5 38.1 38.2 38.1 43.0 43.5 43.7 43.9 42.7 43.2 43.5 43.8 43.4 43.3 43.3 43.4 Mining and quarrying 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 Manufacturing 83.2 84.5 84.5 84.0 83.7 85.9 86.9 87.1 87.9 88.4 88.2 88.0 87.9 88.0 87.9 87.9 87.7 87.6 87.4 87.2 Electricity, gas, & steam 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 Water supply; sewerage, waste management 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.6 Construction 49.8 49.3 49.5 48.7 49.4 49.7 50.1 51.0 51.4 51.8 52.1 52.4 52.6 53.0 53.2 53.5 53.5 53.7 53.8 54.0 Wholesale and retail trade 135.0 134.6 134.3 139.9 135.7 136.5 136.3 142.0 139.4 139.0 140.1 143.9 139.1 139.6 140.1 143.5 139.6 140.2 139.4 142.8 Transportation and storage 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.2 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.9 30.1 30.2 30.4 30.6 Accommodation and food service activities 45.4 46.5 46.5 46.8 45.2 46.0 47.3 46.9 46.2 46.5 46.6 46.7 46.8 47.1 47.3 47.5 47.6 47.7 47.9 48.0 Information and communication 18.5 18.3 18.6 19.0 19.1 19.4 19.8 20.0 19.9 20.5 20.7 20.9 20.9 21.0 21.2 21.3 21.5 21.7 21.8 22.0 Financial and insurance activities 21.0 20.7 20.7 20.4 20.0 19.8 19.5 19.3 19.3 19.4 19.3 19.3 19.3 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.3 Real estate activities 7.3 7.5 7.4 7.3 7.3 7.5 7.8 7.9 8.0 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.3 8.4 8.4 8.5 8.5 8.6 8.6 Professional, scientific and technical activities 28.3 28.6 29.3 29.6 30.1 30.9 31.8 32.4 33.0 33.1 33.5 33.9 34.0 34.1 34.3 34.5 34.7 34.9 35.1 35.3 Administrative and support service activities 42.9 44.1 45.2 45.8 45.3 46.3 48.9 49.3 48.8 49.9 50.0 50.2 50.7 51.1 51.5 51.8 52.1 52.4 52.7 53.0 Public administration and defence 60.4 59.6 59.0 59.0 59.0 59.1 59.0 59.0 59.4 59.0 58.8 58.6 57.8 57.2 56.7 56.1 55.6 55.0 54.5 54.0 Education 72.5 71.9 69.4 71.5 72.4 72.6 69.6 72.9 73.7 73.4 71.4 72.8 73.0 73.1 71.0 72.4 72.4 72.4 70.6 72.2 Human health and social work activities 125.5 125.3 126.0 127.9 129.2 129.4 130.3 130.2 130.9 131.4 131.7 132.1 131.7 131.7 131.7 131.7 131.6 131.5 131.5 131.4 Arts, entertainment and recreation 19.1 18.5 19.0 18.7 18.9 19.1 19.1 18.9 19.3 19.9 20.0 20.2 20.3 20.5 20.7 20.9 20.9 20.9 21.0 21.1 Other service activities 18.6 18.5 18.8 18.8 19.3 19.4 19.5 19.8 20.0 20.2 20.3 20.5 20.5 20.5 20.6 20.7 20.8 20.9 21.1 21.2Total 804.9 803.5 803.3 812.5 809.3 815.9 820.3 831.4 836.8 840.7 841.6 848.8 842.9 845.4 845.2 851.4 847.5 848.4 846.4 851.9


Agriculture, forestry and fishing 9.4 -9.8 -18.1 -14.5 -7.1 -4.4 -3.1 -2.0 11.6 14.2 14.6 15.3 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 1.6 0.1 -0.4 -1.0 Mining and quarrying 4.3 6.3 -1.8 -2.9 -3.5 -1.8 0.0 -1.2 1.8 -1.7 -2.3 -1.2 -1.1 1.6 1.7 1.9 0.2 -0.6 -0.9 -1.2 Manufacturing -0.1 0.9 2.3 -0.5 0.6 1.6 2.9 3.7 4.9 2.9 1.4 1.0 0.0 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 Electricity, gas, & steam -3.6 -2.8 11.7 13.5 14.3 12.2 12.6 10.6 9.9 7.1 4.8 2.0 1.9 1.6 0.6 -0.5 -1.2 -1.6 -1.9 -2.2 Water supply; sewerage, waste management -4.4 -5.3 -3.1 0.2 -2.1 -2.7 -0.4 -1.1 0.3 -0.4 -0.6 0.2 0.4 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 Construction -7.5 -9.6 -6.2 -4.5 -0.8 0.8 1.2 4.7 4.0 4.2 4.0 2.7 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.7 1.3 1.2 1.0 Wholesale and retail trade -2.0 -1.7 -1.4 -0.7 0.5 1.4 1.5 1.5 2.7 1.8 2.8 1.4 -0.2 0.4 0.0 -0.3 0.4 0.5 -0.5 -0.5 Transportation and storage -4.6 -5.0 -1.5 -0.3 0.9 1.4 1.2 0.9 1.7 2.1 2.8 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 Accommodation and food service activities -0.6 1.2 1.6 2.6 -0.4 -1.1 1.8 0.4 2.2 1.1 -1.6 -0.5 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.2 1.2 1.1 Information and communication 0.6 -1.6 -4.9 2.2 3.4 5.9 6.4 5.3 3.9 5.9 4.8 4.5 5.1 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 Financial and insurance activities -2.1 -3.3 -6.0 -2.2 -4.8 -4.2 -5.9 -5.6 -3.3 -2.2 -0.6 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 Real estate activities 6.3 7.3 0.3 -0.8 -0.6 -0.3 4.8 8.7 9.9 7.4 4.5 3.5 3.1 3.5 3.1 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.6 Professional, scientific and technical activities -4.3 -4.3 3.1 3.7 6.3 7.9 8.5 9.7 9.5 7.3 5.5 4.5 3.2 3.1 2.5 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.3 Administrative and support service activities -5.9 -2.7 2.5 5.8 5.6 5.0 8.3 7.6 7.7 7.7 2.3 1.8 3.8 2.4 2.8 3.3 2.8 2.5 2.4 2.3 Public administration and defence -3.6 -2.5 -3.0 -2.4 -2.2 -0.8 0.0 0.0 0.6 -0.3 -0.3 -0.6 -2.6 -3.0 -3.7 -4.3 -3.9 -3.8 -3.8 -3.9 Education -0.3 -1.3 -1.7 -1.5 -0.2 1.0 0.2 1.9 1.8 1.0 2.5 0.0 -1.0 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.8 -0.9 -0.6 -0.3 Human health and social work activities -2.2 -2.6 -2.0 1.9 3.0 3.3 3.4 1.7 1.3 1.5 1.1 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 Arts, entertainment and recreation 5.7 -1.3 6.2 -1.5 -1.2 3.3 0.6 0.9 2.4 4.3 4.7 7.0 4.9 3.2 3.1 3.1 2.9 2.1 1.7 1.3 Other service activities -6.1 -8.1 -3.6 -1.3 3.6 5.1 4.0 5.3 3.8 4.1 4.2 3.3 2.3 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.8 2.1 2.1 2.2Total -1.8 -2.8 -2.1 -0.8 0.6 1.5 2.1 2.3 3.4 3.0 2.6 2.1 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1

201620152013 20142012

Table 2: Employment (000's)


Sep 2014



Unemployment 62.5 65.8 63.3 65.9 64.2 61.5 61.1 57.6 57.5 55.9 55.3 54.7 54.1 53.6 53.4 53.3 53.2 53.0 52.1 51.1


Unemployment 0.2 2.2 -5.4 2.3 2.7 -6.6 -3.5 -12.7 -10.5 -9.1 -9.5 -4.9 -5.8 -4.2 -3.4 -2.6 -1.8 -1.0 -2.6 -4.1

2013 2014 20162015

Table 3: Other variables

2012

sep 2014 - danske bank...• administrative & support services is forecast to be one of the...

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