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TRANSPORTATION, ECONOMICS, ENERGYAND THE ENVIRONMENT (TE3) 2018

Session 1: Global Transportation Energy Demand

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Global energy use and CO2 emissions

Source: Global Carbon Project, http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/17/presentation.htm @01Feb2018 2

Logic tree for addressing CO2 emissions from liquid transportation fuels

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See: DeCicco, J.M. (2015) The liquid carbon challenge: evolving views on transportation fuels and climate. WIREs Energy Environ 4(1): 98-114. doi:10.1002/wene.133

Projected global growth of electric vehicles and components of petroleum demand (from IEA World Energy Outlook 2017)

For reference, the world motor vehicle population is now 1.2 billion and global petroleum demand is 98 million barrels per day (mb/d)

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SUV shares in major markets

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Although electric vehicle sales are highly subsidized and growing rapidly on a percent per year basis, conventional vehicles are getting larger and being added to the car parc in far greater numbers on an absolute basis.

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Global trends in transportation activity and income

Source: Andreas Schäfer, University College London

per capita travel, km/yr per person• Historical data reveal a

strong correlation between income and how much people travel.

• Such trends continue to unfold as China and other emerging economies grow and incomes rise.

• Even as the growth of travel demand slows in mature economies, substantial increases in travel are likely for the rest of the world.

Title slide

TRANSPORTATION, ECONOMICS, ENERGYAND THE ENVIRONMENT (TE3) 2018

Session 1: Global Transportation Energy Demand

7