session 36 gunnar johansson

© Copyright IBM Corporation 2008

Hypoteser om samhällsekonomiska effekter av att subventionera trafik

Gunnar JohanssonOffentlig sektorIBM

2008 e-readiness rankings | Confidential | January 09 |2 © Copyright IBM Corporation 2008

IBM Global Business Services

Vi står inför stora utmaningar inom transportsektorn

Framkomligheten, lokal och global miljöpåverkan samt trafiksäkerhetAtt öka kapaciteten i infrastrukturen är dyrt och tar lång tidFå stora investeringsprojekt är samhällsekonomiskt lönsamma



Försöket med Trängselskatter: Lärdom 1) Våra resvanor är överraskande anpassningsbara

Låga avgifter gav överraskande storaoch omedelbara effekter påvägtrafikvolymen (>20%)Mindre än hälften av minskningen blevnya kollektivresor (ökning med 5% avantalet kollektivresor)Inga negativa effekter på handel ocharbetsmarknad



Försöket med Trängselskatter: Lärdom 2) Oväntad förändring från negativ till positiv attityd

Mycket negativ attityd före försöketSkiftet kom efter tre månader

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Sep05

Oct05

Nov05

Dec06

Jan06

Feb06

Mar06

Apr06

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Good ideaBad idea



Är dagens färdavgifter för kollektivtrafik effektivt utformade?

Regional kollektivtrafik subventionaras av Landstingen

> 15 mdr per år i Sverige> 5 000 kr per förvärvsarbetande i Stockholms län?? ??? kr per långpendlare under rusningstrafik i Stockholms län

Huvudargument: Framkomlighet i vägnätet, skaleffekter och regional enhetlighet.Förslag: Inför tidsdifferentierade avgifter



Är dagens avdragsregler för arbetsresor välmotiverade?

Resor till och från arbetet subventioneras av Staten

?? Mdr per år i Sverige?? ??? kr per långpendlare i Stockholms län

Huvudargument: Effektivare arbetsmarknad, regionalpolitikMörkertal?Förslag: Slopa avgraget i stora delar av landet



Har vi ett för stort fokus på ny infrastruktur på grund av ett föråldtar perspektiv och ineffektiv skatte- och avgiftspolitik?

Om subventioneringsgraden är för hög har vi troligen:En överkonumtion av mobilitet, troligen främst långa dagliga resor under rusningstid i de större regionernaFör stor miljöbelastningKrav på ny infrastruktur av kapacitetsskäl som inte är samhällsekonomiskt motiverad

Vad skulle hända med en mer insiktsfull skatte- och avgiftspolitikÖkad effektivitet i utnyttjandet av existerande infrastrukturMindre krav på ny infrastruktur och troligen bättre lönsamhet i de projekt som behövsIncitament för ökad flexibilitet i hur offentlig och privat verksamhet bedrivsÖkat incitament för en långsiktigt mer effektiv och uthållig stadsplanering



Det behövs nya holistiska perspektiv, inte bara ny myndighetsstruktur, om vi skall lyckas

Efterfrågan av transporter och resor är mer dynamisk än vad beslutfattare trorMan bör involverar regionalpolitik, arbetsmarknadspolitik, IT-politik och energiförsörgningNy transport- och infrastrikturpolitik bör inriktas på att öka välfärden med befintlig infrastrukturMaturity Model - ett hjälpmedel att vidgaperspektivet och se mya möjligheter



Maturity Model Template

strategicplanning

real-timeinformationcreation capability

real-timeinterventioncapability

Level 1Silo

Level 2Centralized

Level 3Partially Integrated

Level 4Multimodal Integrated

Level 5Multimodal Optimized

PlanningFunctional Area Planning (single mode)

Project-based Planning (single mode)

Integrated agency wide planning (single mode)

Integrated corridor-based multimodal planning

Integrated regional multimodal planning

Data Collection Limited or Manual Input

Near real-time for major routes

Real-time for major routes using multiple inputs

Real-time coverage for major corridors, all significant modes

System-wide real -time data collection across all modes

Data Integration Limited Networked Common user interface

2-way system integration Extended integration

Network Ops.Response Ad-Hoc, Single Mode Centralized, Single

ModeAutomated, Single Mode

Automated, Multimodal

Multimodal Real-time Optimized

Payment Methods

Manual Cash Collection

Automatic Cash Machines Electronic Payments Multimodal integrated

fare card

Multimodal, multi-media (fare cards, cell phones, etc)

Incident Management

Manual detection, response and recovery

Manual detection, coordinated response, manual recovery

Automatic detection, coordinated response and manual recovery

Automated pre-planned multimodal recovery plans

Dynamic multimodal recovery plans based on real-time data

Demand Management

Individual static measures

Individual measures, with long term variability

Coordinated measures, with short term variability

Dynamic pricing Multimodal dynamic pricing

Traveler Information

Static Information Static trip planning with limited real-time alerts

Multi-channel trip planning and account-based alert subscription

Location-based, on-journey multimodal information

Location-based, multimodal proactive re-routing

Performance Measurement

Minimal Defined metrics by mode

Limited integration across organizational silos

Shared multimodal system-wide metrics-

Continuous system-wide performance measurement

Analytics Ad-hoc analysis Periodic, Systematic analysis

High-level analysis in near real-time

Detailed analysis in real-time

Multi-modal analysis in real-time

Multimodal Network Management Maturity Model version 1.1 © Copyright IBM Corporation 2007

CustomerManagement

Minimal capability, no customer accounts

Multi-channel account interaction per mode

Unified customer account across multiple modes

Integrated multimodal incentives to optimize multimodal use

Customer accounts managed separately for each system/mode



Maturity Model – London

strategicplanning



Level 1Silo

Level 2Centralized




















Payment Methods



fare card


Incident Management






Demand Management




















CustomerManagement








Maturity Model – Comparison of All Cities Studied

strategicplanning



Level 1Silo

Level 2Centralized




















Payment Methods



fare card


Incident Management






Demand Management




















CustomerManagement








Illustration of Outputs and Process

strategicplanning



Level 1Silo

Level 2Centralized




















Payment Methods



fare card


Incident Management






Demand Management




















CustomerManagement






Maturity Model Interviews Innovation Workshop

Scheme Complexity

Effect on Congestion reduction

strategicplanning



Level 1Silo

Level 2Centralized




















Payment Methods



fare card


Incident Management






Demand Management





Traveler Information Static Information Static trip planning with

limited real-time alerts




Performance Measurement Minimal Defined metrics by

mode









CustomerManagement






Global Benchmarking

Categorise Initiatives

Long Term ContractingExtend CFAPrime Contracting

Outage ManagementOutage ManagementIntegrated Planning

Proactive Obsolescence

Cross Industry Collaboration & Global Sourcing

Supply Chain EffectivenessOutage ManagementIntegrated PlanningContract Management

Enabling Systems,

Processes and Data

Appropriate supplier

relationships

Integration and alignment of all functions that

deliver outages

Minimise risk and impact on

generation

Spares supplier rationalisation

Inventory availableupon demand

World-class supply base

Maximise global market

potential

Centralised procurement of goods, services and spares

Optimised Warehouse management

Reorganised Station Supply Chain

Deployment of World Class Contract Management

Efficient supply chain organisation

that underpins current and future..

business goals.…

Exploit existing systems

Additional functionality

Catalogue cleansing

An Oracle system that

supports business needs

Supply Chain

enabled to meet

changing business needs

Short term Medium term Long term

Sho

rt te

rmM

ediu

m te

rmLo

ng te

rm

2015 Vision

Optimised engagement strategies

Performance improvement at all stages of the business cycle

Mitigate supply chain risk

associated with skills shortages

Supplier relationship

management

Supply chain, suppliers and central outage team operating as one team

World class outage performance(Safety, Quality, Time & Cost)

No surprises

Free up resource

Investment in long term

continuous improvement

Defined obsolescence

process

Technology roadmaps

Support to end of life (inc. life extn)

Obsolete spares and equipment

sourcing partners

Obsolescence team

Ability to plan and respond alternative business / market

scenarios

Access knowledge and leading practice

Industry-wide collaborative relationships

Smoother workload, improving ability to plan

Enhanced communication

and training

Unified Passport

catalogue with centralised data

management

Long Term ContractingExtend CFAPrime Contracting

Outage ManagementOutage ManagementIntegrated Planning

Proactive Obsolescence

Cross Industry Collaboration & Global Sourcing

Supply Chain EffectivenessOutage ManagementIntegrated PlanningContract Management

Enabling Systems,

Processes and Data

Appropriate supplier

relationships

Integration and alignment of all functions that

deliver outages

Minimise risk and impact on

generation

Spares supplier rationalisation

Inventory availableupon demand

World-class supply base

Maximise global market

potential

Centralised procurement of goods, services and spares

Optimised Warehouse management

Reorganised Station Supply Chain

Deployment of World Class Contract Management

Efficient supply chain organisation

that underpins current and future..

business goals.…

Exploit existing systems

Additional functionality

Catalogue cleansing

An Oracle system that

supports business needs

Supply Chain

enabled to meet

changing business needs

Short term Medium term Long term

Sho

rt te

rmM

ediu

m te

rmLo

ng te

rm

2015 Vision

Optimised engagement strategies

Performance improvement at all stages of the business cycle

Mitigate supply chain risk

associated with skills shortages

Supplier relationship

management

Supply chain, suppliers and central outage team operating as one team

World class outage performance(Safety, Quality, Time & Cost)

No surprises

Free up resource

Investment in long term

continuous improvement

Defined obsolescence

process

Technology roadmaps

Support to end of life (inc. life extn)

Obsolete spares and equipment

sourcing partners

Obsolescence team

Ability to plan and respond alternative business / market

scenarios

Access knowledge and leading practice

Industry-wide collaborative relationships

Smoother workload, improving ability to plan

Enhanced communication

and training

Unified Passport

catalogue with centralised data

management

High Level Road MapPresentation onRecommendations

AS IS TO BE



Tack för att ny lyssnade