Snow – December 15, 2008Snow – December 15, 2008Gina McGuireGina McGuire

First…Let’s just look at some Amendments First…Let’s just look at some Amendments from Dec. 14from Dec. 14thth and see what we think and see what we think

• We will look at a few TAFs that went out on the We will look at a few TAFs that went out on the afternoon/evening of Dec. 14afternoon/evening of Dec. 14thth between 15/00z and 15/06z. between 15/00z and 15/06z.

• Observe the difference between the scheduled TAFs and any Observe the difference between the scheduled TAFs and any amendments that were sent out (focus on first 6 hours)amendments that were sent out (focus on first 6 hours)

• Compare the scheduled and amended TAFs to observationsCompare the scheduled and amended TAFs to observations

• Determine if the amendments were warranted and if they Determine if the amendments were warranted and if they helped the TAF and operationshelped the TAF and operations

• Then, we will look at the Dec. 15Then, we will look at the Dec. 15thth event and see how we did! event and see how we did!

Reno TAFs – Let’s look at Content and Reno TAFs – Let’s look at Content and why Amendments were issued?why Amendments were issued?

• KRNO 142321Z 1500/1524 18012G20KT P6SM VCSH SCT045 BKN070FM150300 16008KT 4SM –SN BKN030 OVC050

TEMPO 1503/1506 2SM –SN BKN018 OVC030FM150600 16006KT 1SM –SN BR BKN008 OVC015

TEMPO 1506/1510 1/2SM SN FG VV006FM151200 18006KT 2SM –SN BR BKN012 OVC020FM151900 24007KT P6SM VCSH SCT015 BKN025

TEMPO 1519/1523 4SM –SHSN BKN015

• KRNO 0052Z 1501/1524 18010KT 6SM BR SCT035 BKN060 TEMPO 1501/1503 1 1/2SM –SN BR SCT010 OVC018FM150300 16008KT 5SM –SN BKN035 OVC050

TEMPO 1503/1506 1SM –SN OVC012FM150600 16006KT 1SM –SN BR BKN008 OVC015FM151200 18006KT 2SM –SN BR BKN012 OVC020FM151900 24007KT P6SM VCSH SCT015 BKN025

• KRNO 0259Z 1503/1524 18010KT P6SM SCT035 BKN060 TEMPO 1504/1506 1 1/2SM –SN BR SCT010 OVC018FM150600 16006KT 1SM –SN BR BKN008 OVC015FM151200 18006KT 2SM –SN BR BKN012 OVC020FM151900 24007KT P6SM VCSH SCT015 BKN025

Reno TAFs – Why the Amendments?Reno TAFs – Why the Amendments?• KRNO 0259Z 1503/1524 18010KT P6SM SCT035 BKN060KRNO 0259Z 1503/1524 18010KT P6SM SCT035 BKN060

TEMPO 1504/1506 1 1/2SM –SN BR SCT010 OVC018TEMPO 1504/1506 1 1/2SM –SN BR SCT010 OVC018FM150600 16006KT 1SM –SN BR BKN008 OVC015FM150600 16006KT 1SM –SN BR BKN008 OVC015FM151200 18006KT 2SM –SN BR BKN012 OVC020FM151200 18006KT 2SM –SN BR BKN012 OVC020FM151900 24007KT P6SM VCSH SCT015 BKN025FM151900 24007KT P6SM VCSH SCT015 BKN025

• KRNO 150457Z 1505/1524 18010KT P6SM SCT035 BKN060KRNO 150457Z 1505/1524 18010KT P6SM SCT035 BKN060 TEMPO 1505/1506 3/4SM –SN BR VV008TEMPO 1505/1506 3/4SM –SN BR VV008FM150600 16006KT 1SM –SN BR BKN008 OVC015FM150600 16006KT 1SM –SN BR BKN008 OVC015FM151200 18006KT 2SM –SN BR BKN012 OVC020FM151200 18006KT 2SM –SN BR BKN012 OVC020FM151900 24007KT P6SM VCSH SCT015 BKN025FM151900 24007KT P6SM VCSH SCT015 BKN025

TEMPO 1519/1523 4SM –SHSN BKN015TEMPO 1519/1523 4SM –SHSN BKN015

• Let’s look back at the 01Z amendment…Let’s look back at the 01Z amendment…

• KRNO 0052Z 1501/1524 18010KT 6SM BR SCT035 BKN060 TEMPO 1501/1503 1 1/2SM –SN BR SCT010 OVC018FM150300 16008KT 5SM –SN BKN035 OVC050

TEMPO 1503/1506 1SM –SN OVC012FM150600 16006KT 1SM –SN BR BKN008 OVC015FM151200 18006KT 2SM –SN BR BKN012 OVC020FM151900 24007KT P6SM VCSH SCT015 BKN025

• Let’s look at the observations…Let’s look at the observations…

ObservationsObservations• KRNO 142355Z 20011KT 10SM FEW045 BKN070 BKN100 OVC140 01/M08 A2971 RMK AO2 KRNO 142355Z 20011KT 10SM FEW045 BKN070 BKN100 OVC140 01/M08 A2971 RMK AO2

SLP073 SHSN DSNT SE-W MTN TOPS OBSCD DSNT SE-WSLP073 SHSN DSNT SE-W MTN TOPS OBSCD DSNT SE-W• KRNO 150055Z 17011KT 7SM -SN SCT030 BKN040 OVC100 M01/M05 A2970 RMK AO2 SNB55 KRNO 150055Z 17011KT 7SM -SN SCT030 BKN040 OVC100 M01/M05 A2970 RMK AO2 SNB55

SLP075 SHSN DSNT SE-NW MTNS OBSCD DSNT S-NWSLP075 SHSN DSNT SE-NW MTNS OBSCD DSNT S-NW• KRNO 150155Z 15004KT 10SM SCT030 BKN060 BKN080 M02/M06 A2968 RMK AO2 SNE08 KRNO 150155Z 15004KT 10SM SCT030 BKN060 BKN080 M02/M06 A2968 RMK AO2 SNE08

SLP069 P0000 T10171056=SLP069 P0000 T10171056=• KRNO 150255Z 00000KT 10SM BKN030 OVC070 M02/M05 A2967 RMK AO2 SLP062 60000 KRNO 150255Z 00000KT 10SM BKN030 OVC070 M02/M05 A2967 RMK AO2 SLP062 60000

T10171050 58011=T10171050 58011=• KRNO KRNO 150355Z150355Z 17006KT 10SM OVC060 M02/M05 A2965 RMK AO2 SNB15E39 SLP058 P0000 17006KT 10SM OVC060 M02/M05 A2965 RMK AO2 SNB15E39 SLP058 P0000

T10171050=T10171050=• KRNO 150416Z 15006KT KRNO 150416Z 15006KT 1 3/4SM -SN BR BKN0181 3/4SM -SN BR BKN018 OVC060 M02/M04 A2965 RMK AO2 TWR OVC060 M02/M04 A2965 RMK AO2 TWR

VIS 2 SNB00 P0000=VIS 2 SNB00 P0000=• KRNO 150431Z 19005KT KRNO 150431Z 19005KT 2SM -SN BR OVC0132SM -SN BR OVC013 M02/M03 A2965 RMK AO2 SNB00 P0000= M02/M03 A2965 RMK AO2 SNB00 P0000=• KRNO 150435Z 20004KT KRNO 150435Z 20004KT 1 1/4SM -SN BR OVC0111 1/4SM -SN BR OVC011 M02/M03 A2964 RMK AO2 TWR VIS 2 SNB00 M02/M03 A2964 RMK AO2 TWR VIS 2 SNB00

P0000=P0000=• KRNO 150440Z 18005KT KRNO 150440Z 18005KT 3/4SM -SN BR VV0083/4SM -SN BR VV008 M02/M03 A2964 RMK AO2 TWR VIS 2 SNB00 M02/M03 A2964 RMK AO2 TWR VIS 2 SNB00

P0001=P0001=• KRNO 150455Z 00000KT KRNO 150455Z 00000KT 3/4SM -SN BR VV0043/4SM -SN BR VV004 M02/M03 A2964 RMK AO2 TWR VIS 1 SNB00 M02/M03 A2964 RMK AO2 TWR VIS 1 SNB00

SLP049 P0002 T10221033=SLP049 P0002 T10221033=• KRNO 150503Z 00000KT KRNO 150503Z 00000KT 1SM -SN BR OVC0051SM -SN BR OVC005 M03/M04 A2963 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1 1/4 P0000= M03/M04 A2963 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1 1/4 P0000=• KRNO 150509Z 00000KT KRNO 150509Z 00000KT 2SM -SN BR BKN0072SM -SN BR BKN007 BKN047 OVC060 M02/M04 A2963 RMK AO2 BKN047 OVC060 M02/M04 A2963 RMK AO2

TWR VIS 3 P0000=TWR VIS 3 P0000=• KRNO 150515Z 00000KT KRNO 150515Z 00000KT 3SM -SN BR SCT0073SM -SN BR SCT007 BKN044BKN044 OVC060 M03/M04 A2963 RMK AO2 OVC060 M03/M04 A2963 RMK AO2

SFC VIS 4 P0000=SFC VIS 4 P0000=• KRNO 150532Z 00000KT KRNO 150532Z 00000KT 9SM -SN BKN0269SM -SN BKN026 BKN041 OVC060 M02/M04 A2964 RMK AO2 BKN041 OVC060 M02/M04 A2964 RMK AO2

P0000=P0000=• KRNO 150545Z 00000KT KRNO 150545Z 00000KT 2SM -SN BR FEW020 BKN0242SM -SN BR FEW020 BKN024 OVC060 M02/M03 A2963 RMK AO2 OVC060 M02/M03 A2963 RMK AO2

SFC VIS 3 P0000=SFC VIS 3 P0000=• KRNO 150552Z 00000KT KRNO 150552Z 00000KT 1 1/4SM -SN BR SCT018 BKN0241 1/4SM -SN BR SCT018 BKN024 OVC029 M02/M03 A2963 RMK OVC029 M02/M03 A2963 RMK

AO2 TWR VIS 2 P0000=AO2 TWR VIS 2 P0000=• KRNO KRNO 150555Z150555Z 00000KT 00000KT 1SM -SN BR FEW010 BKN0181SM -SN BR FEW010 BKN018 OVC024 M02/M03 A2963 RMK AO2 OVC024 M02/M03 A2963 RMK AO2

TWR VIS 1 1/2 SLP042 P0001 60003 T10221033 10006TWR VIS 1 1/2 SLP042 P0001 60003 T10221033 10006

More Reno TAFs – Why the More Reno TAFs – Why the Amendments?Amendments?

• KRNO 150526Z 1506/1606 VRB03KT 6SM –SN BR SCT015 BKN035 BKN060KRNO 150526Z 1506/1606 VRB03KT 6SM –SN BR SCT015 BKN035 BKN060 TEMPO 1506/1509 1SM –SN BR VV007TEMPO 1506/1509 1SM –SN BR VV007FM151200 VRB03KT 3/4SM –SN BR VV008FM151200 VRB03KT 3/4SM –SN BR VV008FM151800 24007KT P6SM VCSH SCT015 BKN035FM151800 24007KT P6SM VCSH SCT015 BKN035

FM160200 VRB03KT 3SM –SN BR SCT010 BKN020 OVC035FM160200 VRB03KT 3SM –SN BR SCT010 BKN020 OVC035

• KRNO 150914Z 1509/1606 00000KT 2SM –SN BR BKN010 OVC020KRNO 150914Z 1509/1606 00000KT 2SM –SN BR BKN010 OVC020 TEMPO 1509/1512 4SM –SN BR VV008TEMPO 1509/1512 4SM –SN BR VV008FM151800 24007KT P6SM VCSH SCT015 BKN035FM151800 24007KT P6SM VCSH SCT015 BKN035

FM160200 VRB03KT 3SM –SN BR SCT010 BKN020 OVC035FM160200 VRB03KT 3SM –SN BR SCT010 BKN020 OVC035

• KRNO 151132Z 1512/1612 15006KT 6SM –SN BR SCT012 BKN030KRNO 151132Z 1512/1612 15006KT 6SM –SN BR SCT012 BKN030 TEMPO 1514/1518 2SM –SHSN BR BKN010 OVC020TEMPO 1514/1518 2SM –SHSN BR BKN010 OVC020FM152000 20010KT P6SM VCSH SCT030 BKN050FM152000 20010KT P6SM VCSH SCT030 BKN050

FM160400 25006KT 3SM –SN BR BKN010 BKN020FM160400 25006KT 3SM –SN BR BKN010 BKN020

ObservationsObservations• KRNO 150555Z 00000KT KRNO 150555Z 00000KT 1SM -SN BR FEW010 BKN0181SM -SN BR FEW010 BKN018 OVC024 M02/M03 A2963 RMK AO2 TWR VIS 1 1/2 OVC024 M02/M03 A2963 RMK AO2 TWR VIS 1 1/2

SLP042 P0001 60003 T10221033 10006SLP042 P0001 60003 T10221033 10006• KRNO 150603Z 00000KT KRNO 150603Z 00000KT 1 1/2SM -SN BR SCT008 BKN0161 1/2SM -SN BR SCT008 BKN016 OVC022 M02/M03 A2962 RMK AO2 P0000= OVC022 M02/M03 A2962 RMK AO2 P0000=• KRNO 150633Z 00000KT KRNO 150633Z 00000KT 1 1/2SM -SN SCT034 BKN050 OVC0651 1/2SM -SN SCT034 BKN050 OVC065 M02/M03 A2962 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 8 M02/M03 A2962 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 8

P0000=P0000=• KRNO 150655Z 03003KT KRNO 150655Z 03003KT 1 1/2SM -SN FEW008 SCT048 OVC0601 1/2SM -SN FEW008 SCT048 OVC060 M02/M03 A2961 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 10 M02/M03 A2961 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 10

SLP038 P0000 T10171033=SLP038 P0000 T10171033=• KRNO 150709Z 04003KT KRNO 150709Z 04003KT 1 1/2SM -SN BR FEW018 BKN0231 1/2SM -SN BR FEW018 BKN023 OVC035 M02/M03 A2961 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 2 OVC035 M02/M03 A2961 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 2

1/2 P0000=1/2 P0000=• KRNO 150737Z 02004KT KRNO 150737Z 02004KT 1 1/2SM -SN BR FEW016 BKN0321 1/2SM -SN BR FEW016 BKN032 OVC060 M02/M03 A2960 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 6 OVC060 M02/M03 A2960 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 6

P0000=P0000=• KRNO 150755Z 35004KT KRNO 150755Z 35004KT 1 1/2SM -SN BR SCT019 BKN0361 1/2SM -SN BR SCT019 BKN036 OVC065 M02/M04 A2960 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 3 OVC065 M02/M04 A2960 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 3

SLP035 P0000 T10221039 400281061=SLP035 P0000 T10221039 400281061=• KRNO 150824Z 00000KT KRNO 150824Z 00000KT 1 1/4SM -SN BR BKN0081 1/4SM -SN BR BKN008 OVC022 M02/M03 A2960 RMK AO2 TWR VIS 1 1/2 OVC022 M02/M03 A2960 RMK AO2 TWR VIS 1 1/2

P0001=P0001=• KRNO 150836Z 00000KT KRNO 150836Z 00000KT 1 1/2SM -SN BR BKN0081 1/2SM -SN BR BKN008 OVC022 M02/M03 A2959 RMK AO2 P0001= OVC022 M02/M03 A2959 RMK AO2 P0001=• KRNO 150844Z 35003KT KRNO 150844Z 35003KT 1 1/4SM -SN BR BKN0081 1/4SM -SN BR BKN008 OVC018 M02/M03 A2960 RMK AO2 TWR VIS 1 1/2 OVC018 M02/M03 A2960 RMK AO2 TWR VIS 1 1/2

P0001=P0001=• KRNO 150850Z 00000KT KRNO 150850Z 00000KT 1 1/2SM -SN BR SCT0081 1/2SM -SN BR SCT008 BKN016BKN016 OVC022 M02/M03 A2959 RMK AO2 P0002= OVC022 M02/M03 A2959 RMK AO2 P0002=• KRNO 150855Z 00000KT KRNO 150855Z 00000KT 1 1/2SM -SN BR SCT0141 1/2SM -SN BR SCT014 BKN022BKN022 OVC065 M02/M03 A2959 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 3 OVC065 M02/M03 A2959 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 3

SLP029 P0002 60002 T10221033SLP029 P0002 60002 T10221033• KRNO 150952Z 00000KT KRNO 150952Z 00000KT 1 1/4SM -SN BR BKN0081 1/4SM -SN BR BKN008 OVC016 M02/M03 A2960 RMK AO2 TWR VIS 1 1/2 OVC016 M02/M03 A2960 RMK AO2 TWR VIS 1 1/2

P0000=P0000=• KRNO 150955Z 01003KT KRNO 150955Z 01003KT 1 1/2SM -SN BR BKN0121 1/2SM -SN BR BKN012 BKN016 OVC025 M02/M03 A2960 RMK AO2 SLP031 BKN016 OVC025 M02/M03 A2960 RMK AO2 SLP031

P0000 T10221033=P0000 T10221033=• KRNO 151002Z 00000KT KRNO 151002Z 00000KT 1 1/2SM -SN BR FEW017 OVC0241 1/2SM -SN BR FEW017 OVC024 M03/M04 A2960 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 2 1/2 M03/M04 A2960 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 2 1/2

P0000=P0000=• KRNO 151017Z 36003KT KRNO 151017Z 36003KT 1 1/2SM -SN BKN0351 1/2SM -SN BKN035 OVC060 M02/M04 A2961 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 7 P0001=OVC060 M02/M04 A2961 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 7 P0001=• KRNO 151044Z 36003KT KRNO 151044Z 36003KT 1 1/2SM -SN BR FEW007 BKN0331 1/2SM -SN BR FEW007 BKN033 OVC060 M02/M03 A2962 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 4 OVC060 M02/M03 A2962 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 4

P0001=P0001=• KRNO 151055Z 09004KT KRNO 151055Z 09004KT 1 1/2SM -SN BR FEW007 SCT025 OVC0551 1/2SM -SN BR FEW007 SCT025 OVC055 M03/M04 A2962 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 5 M03/M04 A2962 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 5

SLP039 P0001 T10331044=SLP039 P0001 T10331044=• KRNO 151117Z 00000KT KRNO 151117Z 00000KT 10SM FEW012 SCT035 BKN05510SM FEW012 SCT035 BKN055 M04/M05 A2961 RMK AO2 SNE08 P0000= M04/M05 A2961 RMK AO2 SNE08 P0000=• KRNO 151155Z 22005KT 6SM MIFG FEW014 SCT055 M04/M06 A2961 RMK AO2 SNE08 SLP039 P0000 60003 KRNO 151155Z 22005KT 6SM MIFG FEW014 SCT055 M04/M06 A2961 RMK AO2 SNE08 SLP039 P0000 60003

70006 T10441056 11017 2105670006 T10441056 11017 21056

On to December 15On to December 15thth……

• Look at radar data between 15/12z and 16/06zLook at radar data between 15/12z and 16/06z

• Discuss radar features that would be important in TAF writingDiscuss radar features that would be important in TAF writing

• Look at TAFs and Amendments issuedLook at TAFs and Amendments issued

• Discuss good/bad elements in the TAF and see how we did!Discuss good/bad elements in the TAF and see how we did!

• What do you observe about the radar? What jumps out at you?What do you observe about the radar? What jumps out at you?

• Precipitation NaturePrecipitation Nature– Showery? Stratiform? Showery? Stratiform? Stratiform initially over the Sierra, then becomes Stratiform initially over the Sierra, then becomes

showery over time in wrn Nevada.showery over time in wrn Nevada.– Is showery precip harder/easier to forecast for a TAF as opposed to stratiform? Is showery precip harder/easier to forecast for a TAF as opposed to stratiform?

Usually more difficult due to variances in cig/vis/shower intensityUsually more difficult due to variances in cig/vis/shower intensity

• Any issues with spillover, or lack there of? Any issues with spillover, or lack there of? Spillover doesn’t seem to be Spillover doesn’t seem to be an issue as showers are having no trouble making it into wrn NV.an issue as showers are having no trouble making it into wrn NV.

• Any areas of concern? Any areas of concern?

• What might you look at to determine how intense any precipitation is? What might you look at to determine how intense any precipitation is?

– SatelliteSatellite– Upstream Metars (KTRK for KRNO at times)Upstream Metars (KTRK for KRNO at times)– Web CamsWeb Cams– RAWS possiblyRAWS possibly– Road conditionsRoad conditions– CHP WebsiteCHP Website

Reno TAFsReno TAFs

• KRNO 151132Z 1512/1612 15006KT 6SM -SN BR SCT012 BKN030 KRNO 151132Z 1512/1612 15006KT 6SM -SN BR SCT012 BKN030 TEMPO 1514/1518 2SM -SHSN BKN010 OVC020 TEMPO 1514/1518 2SM -SHSN BKN010 OVC020 FM152000 20010KT P6SM VCSH SCT030 BKN050 FM152000 20010KT P6SM VCSH SCT030 BKN050 FM160400 25006KT 3SM -SN BR BKN010 BKN020 FM160400 25006KT 3SM -SN BR BKN010 BKN020

• Based on TAF…Next shower band expected 14z-18z dropping conditions to 2sm/BKN010…Based on TAF…Next shower band expected 14z-18z dropping conditions to 2sm/BKN010…let’s look at the radar again. let’s look at the radar again.

• KTRK was reporting 1/4sm +SN at 14z… What do you think of 12z TAF now? KTRK was reporting 1/4sm +SN at 14z… What do you think of 12z TAF now? Conditions Conditions may not be low enough at KRNO depending on how heavy the showers make it into NV…may not be low enough at KRNO depending on how heavy the showers make it into NV…looking at TRK is not always definitive. looking at TRK is not always definitive.

• Amendment issued at 1540z…Amendment issued at 1540z…

• KRNO 151540Z 1516/1612 VRB03KT 4SM -SN BR SCT012 BKN025 KRNO 151540Z 1516/1612 VRB03KT 4SM -SN BR SCT012 BKN025 TEMPO 1516/1519 1/2SM SHSN TEMPO 1516/1519 1/2SM SHSN BKN008 OVC020BKN008 OVC020 FM152000 20010KT P6SM VCSH SCT030 BKN050 FM152000 20010KT P6SM VCSH SCT030 BKN050 FM160400 25006KT 3SM -SN BR BKN010 BKN020 FM160400 25006KT 3SM -SN BR BKN010 BKN020

• Look reasonable so far based on all we’ve seen? Look reasonable so far based on all we’ve seen? Yes. I don’t have later observations in this Yes. I don’t have later observations in this presentation, but the amendment did work out. presentation, but the amendment did work out.

• Now the 18z TAF…Now the 18z TAF…

• KRNO 151749Z 1518/1618 VRB03KT 4SM -SN BR BKN015 OVC025 KRNO 151749Z 1518/1618 VRB03KT 4SM -SN BR BKN015 OVC025 TEMPO 1518/1522 1/2SM SHSN FZFG BKN008 OVC020 TEMPO 1518/1522 1/2SM SHSN FZFG BKN008 OVC020 FM152200 20010KT 5SM -SHSN BKN020 OVC035 FM152200 20010KT 5SM -SHSN BKN020 OVC035 FM160300 25006KT 1 1/2SM -SHSN BR BKN010 BKN020 FM160300 25006KT 1 1/2SM -SHSN BR BKN010 BKN020 FM161200 VRB03KT P6SM VCSH BKN025 OVC040 FM161200 VRB03KT P6SM VCSH BKN025 OVC040

• Does this TAF look reasonable based on radar at 17z-18z? Does this TAF look reasonable based on radar at 17z-18z? Yes.Yes.

Some Verification Numbers for Dec. 15thSome Verification Numbers for Dec. 15th• Scheduled KRNO TAFs Only (NWS / GFS) – for ceiling 1000 feet / visibility 3 smScheduled KRNO TAFs Only (NWS / GFS) – for ceiling 1000 feet / visibility 3 sm

– POD – POD – 0.780.78 / 0.23 / 0.23– FAR – FAR – 0.250.25 / 0.60 / 0.60

• Amendments for KRNO OnlyAmendments for KRNO Only– POD – POD – 0.890.89– FAR – FAR – 0.320.32

• Amendments DID improve the forecast with respect to POD…with only a slight Amendments DID improve the forecast with respect to POD…with only a slight decrease to FAR…however, what the numbers don’t show is when the decrease to FAR…however, what the numbers don’t show is when the amendments were issued the category (ie. IFR)…so where ALL of the amendments were issued the category (ie. IFR)…so where ALL of the amendments amendments necessarynecessary??

• Scheduled KRNO TAFs Only (NWS / GFS) – for ceiling 1000 feet / visibility Scheduled KRNO TAFs Only (NWS / GFS) – for ceiling 1000 feet / visibility 1 sm1 sm– POD – POD – 0.420.42 / 0.31 / 0.31– FAR – FAR – 0.82 0.82 / 0.89/ 0.89

• Amendments for KRNO OnlyAmendments for KRNO Only– POD – POD – 0.410.41– FAR – FAR – 0.920.92

• Amendments did not improve the forecast (and hurt with respect to FAR) Amendments did not improve the forecast (and hurt with respect to FAR) when we look at the conditions that would traditionally shut down the airport. when we look at the conditions that would traditionally shut down the airport.

Reno Airport MinimumsReno Airport Minimums• For Standard OperationsFor Standard Operations

– Aircraft with Special Instrument Approach: (all commercial aircraft)Aircraft with Special Instrument Approach: (all commercial aircraft)• Ceiling 200 feet, Visibility ½ SMCeiling 200 feet, Visibility ½ SM

– Aircraft without Special Instrument Approach: (all GA)Aircraft without Special Instrument Approach: (all GA)• Ceiling 1100 feet, Visibility 4 SMCeiling 1100 feet, Visibility 4 SM

• For Alternate Operations when sustained winds are N or NNW at least 5 ktsFor Alternate Operations when sustained winds are N or NNW at least 5 kts– Aircraft with Special Instrument Approach:Aircraft with Special Instrument Approach:

• Ceiling 700 feet, Visibility 1 ¾ SMCeiling 700 feet, Visibility 1 ¾ SM– Aircraft without Special Instrument ApproachAircraft without Special Instrument Approach

• Ceiling > 1100 feet, Visibility > 4 SMCeiling > 1100 feet, Visibility > 4 SM

• Remember that your TAF is a Remember that your TAF is a forecastforecast service for the airport, not a service for the airport, not a nowcast. Customers look for future guidance, not a repeat of the nowcast. Customers look for future guidance, not a repeat of the current observation.current observation.

TAF Reminders• TAF FormatTAF Format

– Length of TAFLength of TAF• Use only 2 cloud categoriesUse only 2 cloud categories• Try to keep under 6-8 lines in active weatherTry to keep under 6-8 lines in active weather• Keep detail to first 6 hoursKeep detail to first 6 hours• Try to avoid TEMPOs beyond 6-9 hours Try to avoid TEMPOs beyond 6-9 hours

– Forecast ToolsForecast Tools• SatelliteSatellite• RadarRadar• TAF site and neighboring obsTAF site and neighboring obs• Look out the window! Look out the window!

– In active or rapidly changing weather, do not issue the TAF until the last In active or rapidly changing weather, do not issue the TAF until the last possible moment (40 past the hour)…this could save you a quick possible moment (40 past the hour)…this could save you a quick amendmentamendment

– Use the Aviation section in the AFD to voice uncertainty, or areas where the Use the Aviation section in the AFD to voice uncertainty, or areas where the TAF may go wrong…no need to put every uncertainty in the TAF with TAF may go wrong…no need to put every uncertainty in the TAF with TEMPO/PROB groupsTEMPO/PROB groups