Sleeping with the Enemy: The Economic Costs of Internal Environmental Conflicts

Baker Perry1, Richard Poremba1, Anton Seimon1,2, Daniel Martin1, Ginger Kelly1, and Alfredo Tupayachi3

1Department of Geography and Planning, Appalachian State University2Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, 3Universidad Nacional de San Antonio de Abd de Cusco

71st Eastern Snow Conference

Boone, NC USA5 June 2014Snowfall event characteristics in the cordillera vilcanota, peru

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Cordillera Vilcanota

Background and SignificanceCordillera Vilcanota has been the site of significant research focused on:Paleoclimatic reconstructions from Quelccaya ice cores (e.g., Thompson et al. 1985, Seimon 2003, Thompson et al. 2006 )Past glaciations and climate-glacier interactions (e.g., Mark et al. 2002)Ecological response to climate change (e.g., Seimon et al. 2007)Precipitation variability is a fundamental influence on past and current changes in the tropical Andes (Garreaud et al. 2003)Precipitation type, amount, and timing controls surface albedo, which is critical to glacier mass balance (e.g., Francou et al. 2003)Precipitation processes play a dominant role in influencing stable oxygen isotope ratios (18O) preserved in snow/ice stratigraphy (e.g., Vuille et al. 2008, Vimeux et al. 2009)However, considerable uncertainty remains on the timing, precipitation type, and trajectories during events

Descriptions of Central Andean Regional PrecipitationClimatic FeaturePrevious StudiesThis StudyPrecipitation diurnalityUnimodal daytime precipitation maximumBimodal: broad nighttime maximum peaking near midnight LST with secondary late-afternoon maximumPrecipitation characterExclusively deep, moist convectionPrimarily stratiform (nighttime) with secondary deep moist convection (daytime)Precipitating moisture trajectoryE from Amazon basinPrimarily NW, but with 95 % tied to trajectories from the Amazon basinMoisture source regionsAmazon basin exclusivelyDominantly Amazon basin, but also 5% from Pacific OceanENSO-related precipitation anomaliesNegative anomalies with El Nio; positive anomalies with La NiaPositive anomalies with El Nio; negative anomalies with La Nia?Research QuestionsWhat are the predominant precipitation types at ~ 5,000 m asl and how do they vary by season?Snow, graupel (phati in Quechua), rain/snow mix, rainWhat is the daily timing of snowfall events in the Cordillera Vilcanota? When is heavy snowfall most likely to occur?What are the dominant wind directions and antecedent upstream air trajectories associated with snowfall events?

SENAMHI Stations:2x Daily Observations0000 and 1200 UTCCusco International Airport: Hourly Precip ObservationsPerry et al. 2014, Int J Clim

Quelccaya IcecapDon Pedro Godfredo with Precipitation Gauge(At Murmurani Alto 5,050 m asl)10 cm diameter manual gaugeAugust 2010

Sonic Snow DepthParsivel Present WeatherTemp & Relative HumidityApril 2012Murmurani Alto (5,050 m)

RM Young 05103Alpine Wind SensorApril 2012Osjollo Anante Icecap (5,540 m)Vaisala WXT 510 Multisensor withSonic Wind, Temperature, Relative Humidity,and Pressure

Snow and Graupel are the Primary Precipitation Types

Rain is Very Infrequent, Less than 4% of Hours

April 2012Rapid Snow Ablation in Murmurani Alto5.9 mm/event68% of total=Stratiform?3.3 mm/event32% of total=Convective?NightDaySunrisePerry et al. 2014, Int J ClimAdd additional notes re: sunrise and peak heatingFrecuencia del tiempo de maduracin del eventNocturno/diurno14

73% of heavy eventsoccur at night59% of light eventsoccur during dayPerry et al. 2014, Int J Clim

NightDaySunrise

Composite Trajectory Clusters for All Events in Cusco, 2004-2010Cluster 150% of events4.7 mm/eventCluster 319% of events4.8 mm/eventCluster 65% of events8.7 mm/eventCluster 214% of events 3.6 mm/eventCluster 45% of events 4.8 mm/eventCluster 58% of events3.3 mm/event58% of precipitation events at Cusco exhibit trajectories out of the NNW Infrequent, yet heavy83% of events are tied to weak low-level flow out of NNW, NE, and EPerry et al. 2014, Int J Clim

Wind Speed and DirectionDuring All PrecipitationEvents: 2012-2013

Wind Observationsfrom Osjollo Anante

Precipitation Observations from Murmurani Alto

Wind Speed and DirectionDuring DJF PrecipitationEvents: 2012-2013

Wind Observationsfrom Osjollo Anante

Precipitation Observations from Murmurani AltoDescriptions of Central Andean Regional PrecipitationClimatic FeaturePrevious StudiesThis StudyPrecipitation diurnalityUnimodal daytime precipitation maximumBimodal: broad nighttime maximum peaking near midnight LST with secondary late-afternoon maximumPrecipitation characterExclusively deep, moist convectionPrimarily stratiform (nighttime) with secondary deep moist convection (daytime)Precipitating moisture trajectoryE from Amazon basinPrimarily NW, but with 95 % tied to trajectories from the Amazon basinMoisture source regionsAmazon basin exclusivelyDominantly Amazon basin, but also 5% from Pacific OceanENSO-related precipitation anomaliesNegative anomalies with El Nio; positive anomalies with La NiaPositive anomalies with El Nio; negative anomalies with La Nia(Not shown)Perry et al. 2014, Int J ClimSummary and ConclusionsPrecipitation primarily falls as snow above 5,000 m, with graupel and heavily rimed snow crystals common. Rain and mixed precipitation are rare, accounting for less than 5% of total precipitation hours.How will these values change in 2014-2015, with the possibility of a major El Nio and an associated elevated freezing level?There were a total of 281 events between April 2012 and July 2013, with most of the heavy events occurring at night. No hourly precipitation totals available, only present weather.What are the meteorological mechanisms responsible for the heavy nighttime stratiform precipitation?Most precipitation events are associated with W and NW flow at Murmurani Alto and NW trajectories at Cusco.In contrast to E flow as reported at other sites in the Central Andes, including Quelccaya.

Paleoclimatic ImplicationsMuch of the inference from the nearby Quelccaya ice core record presumes that the central Andean precipitation meteorology is fairly well understood. Our findings call that into question.A reconsideration of the climatological inferences derived from Quelccaya (and possibly other tropical Andean ice cores) may be needed.May result in improved paleoclimatic understanding?Improved correlation with other paleoclimatic proxy records?

Mucha de la interpretacin de los registros del coro de hielo de Quelccaya presume la precipitacin climatolgica de los Andes centrales es bien comprendida. Nuestros hallazgos cuestionan esa presuncin.Puede ser necesaria una reconsideracin de las inferencias climatolgicas derivadas de Quelccaya y posiblemente otros ice cores Andino tropicales.Puede resultar en una mejor comprensin paleoclimticaMayor corelacin con otros registros paleoclimticos

22Research Activities: July to November 2014Install precipitation monitoring stations on the Quelccaya Icecap and at Chacaltaya (Cordillera Real), Bolivia.Recruit and train additional citizen science precipitation observers in the Cordilleras Vilcanota and Cordillera Real.Investigate the vertical structure of precipitation with weather balloon releases and a vertically-pointing radar.Categorize snow particle type and degree of riming, which may provide insight to cloud microphysical processes.

Minder et al. (2012)Para analizar la coherencia con los datos de Cusco.Andino tropical, radiosondas Categorizar el tipo de las partculas de nieve el grado de congelamiento que podra proveer mayor comprensin de los procesos microfsicos de las nubes23

AcknowledgmentsSandra Yuter, Doug Hardy, Nelson Quispe, Marcos Andrade, Tracie Seimon, Jon Webb, Preston Sowell, Brooks Fisher, Karina Yager, Charles Rodda, Skylar Haines, Nico Robles, Ben Boore, Paul Carr, Dan Slayback, Don Pedro Godfredo, and Crispin familyAppalachian State University Board of Trustees International Research Travel Grant (2009), Office of International Education and Development (2010, 2012), Justin Brooks Fisher Foundation (2012), College of Arts & Sciences (2012)NSF Grant AGS-1347179 (CAREER: Multiscale Investigations of Tropical Andean Precipitation)

Questions?