Social Science, Societal

Impacts, and Weather

Social Science, Societal

Impacts, and Weather

Jeff Lazo and Julie Demuth1National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)

With special thanks to Heather Lazrus2

and Melissa Tuttle Carr3

2OU & NOAA Social Science Woven Into Meteorology (SSWIM)3Independent Consultant, CNN

2010 Summer WAS*IS Workshop

August 6, 2010

MotivationMotivation

• Even perfect forecast and warning information isn’t

useful if it isn’t received, understood, or usable

• We’re always looking to provide better information

in better ways to better serve the range of users of

forecast and warning information … to promote a

safer, more informed society

Requires physical and social science!Requires physical and social science!

Research programs focusing on

meteorology & social sciences

Research programs focusing on

meteorology & social sciences

• NCAR Societal Impacts Program (SIP)

– Jeff Lazo (economics), Rebecca Morss

(meteorology), Emily Laidlaw

(journalism), Julie Demuth

(meteorology & communication)

• OU Social Science Woven Into

Meteorology (SSWIM)

– Eve Gruntfest (geography), Heather

Lazrus (anthropology)

Many more wonderful researchers

(& collaborators) and research efforts!

Many more wonderful researchers

(& collaborators) and research efforts!

www.sip.ucar.edu

www.sswim.org

Capacity-building effort: WAS*IS!Capacity-building effort: WAS*IS!

• WAS*IS is an important capacity-building effort

– Builds an interdisciplinary community of people

passionate about social science and meteorology

– Promotes new ways of thinking about issues that fall at

the interface of meteorology and society

– Workshops provide a forum to discuss these issues

WAS*IS®

weather & society * integrated studies

www.sip.ucar.edu/wasis/

CULTURE CHANGE

Sponsored by the NCAR Societal Impacts Program

• WAS*IS is not a research program

– Can inspire collaborations

– Can spur research ideas

www.sip.ucar.edu/wasis

Science, impacts, and capacity-

building … oh my!

Science, impacts, and capacity-

building … oh my!

Weather

Enterprise

Weather

Enterprise

Societal

Impacts

Societal

Impacts

Social

Science

Social

Science

Collaborations

Weather

Enterprise

Weather

EnterpriseSocietal

Impacts

Societal

Impacts

Social

Science

Social

Science

CollaborationsCollaborations

Societal impactsSocietal impacts

• Societal – of or pertaining to the life, welfare, and

relations of human beings

• Impact – the effect of one thing on another

• Societal impact of weather – the effect of weather

on human life, welfare, and relations

– E.g., impacts – economic impact (crop loss), health

impacts (heat stroke), emotional impact (property

damage)

We want to respond to societal impacts to reduce

loss of life and property

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Forecasters can consider societal

impacts by asking…

Forecasters can consider societal

impacts by asking…

• Who will be impacted?

• Are people…

awake/sleeping/driving/harvesting/fishing/

constructing/graduating/getting married?

• What has happened to this point?

– Have there been fatalities?

– What are the TV stations saying?

• Have earlier events been “missed”?

Courtesy of Daniel Nietfeld, SOO, WFO OAX

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Societal impact ex: Rush hour tornadoSocietal impact ex: Rush hour tornado

• Environmental conditions – favorable to produce a

tornado

• Societal impact – urban area with three interstate

highways at rush hour

• Action – a well warned event that conveyed a

message to stay off of the roads

• Effect – highways empty at rush hour

Not research … but the societal

impact was addressed beneficially

based on forecasters’ understanding

of local area and population

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Social sciencesSocial sciences

• Application of the scientific process to study &

understand human cognition & behavior

– Emphasis on “process”

• Using testable theories, systematic process, and

rigorous research to answer questions about

human society

• Subjects and the theories that describe them

constantly change – unlike physical parameters,

human society is never static!

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Scientific

process

Scientific

process

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Take home point

Social sciences are true “sciences” – as are physical sciences – with theories, observations, methods, applications. And they are extremely challenging as human behavior is non-linear, dynamic, and even “chaotic” … kind of like

meteorology!

Diverse disciplinesDiverse disciplines

Social science is commonly used as an umbrella termto refer to a plurality of fields outside of the natural sciences

•Anthropology

•Geography

•Communication

•Psychology

•Political Science

•Economics

•Education

•Sociology

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Diverse methodologiesDiverse methodologies

Qualitative and quantitative approaches

• Interviews

– Structured

– Semi-structured

– Open interviews

• Surveys

• Direct observations

• Participatory activities

• Focus groups

• Etc.

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Ex. Different research questions

from different disciplines about a

single phenomenon...

Ex. Different research questions

from different disciplines about a

single phenomenon...

e.g., hurricane

evacuation

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Research question ex. 1:

Economics

Research question ex. 1:

Economics

What are the economic costs of hurricane

evacuations?So

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What would be

the economic

benefits of

opening the other

lanes to outbound

traffic?

Research question ex. 2:

Anthropology

Research question ex. 2:

Anthropology

Which vulnerability characteristics are most

influential in hurricane evacuation decisions?So

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What cultural

characteristics

affect the use of

public shelters??

Research question ex. 3a:

Communication

Research question ex. 3a:

Communication

How could social media (e.g., Facebook,

Twitter) be effectively used during hurricane

evacuations?

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What

communication

sources do people

trust most?

Research question ex. 3b:

Communication

Research question ex. 3b:

Communication• Social science is NOT just about studying the “end

user” … meteorologists are people too! ☺

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

HURRICANE SUITER LOCAL STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL1129 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2009

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTH FLORIDA AS

EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE SUITER MOVES

THRU BAHAMAS...

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...

SUITER IS BECOMING AN INCREASINGLY SERIOUS THREAT

TO SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER...IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO

FOCUS ON EXACT WIND AND SURGE FORECAST VALUES FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS. WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO

NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK. A GENERAL

CONCERN SHOULD BE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST

EXTENSIVE DAMAGE SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA

MAINLY BASED ON WINDS, WITH SURGE ALSO BECOMING AN INCREASING CONCERN. ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY AT

THIS TIME...HEAVY AND FLOOD-PRODUCING RAINS ARE

ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS MANY PORTIONS OF SOUTH

FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND, ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY

OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IN RAIN BANDS WELL AHEAD OF THE STORM. …

How do forecasters’

knowledge and

perceptions of their

audiences influence

the content of the

forecast messages

they construct?

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So…So…

• Sometimes social science research is needed to

understand the complexity of human cognition

and behavior

…and…

• Other times understanding societal impacts can

improve the outcomes

–Know local context

–Listen to local stakeholders

–Draw on your local expertiseSo

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The good, the bad, & the uglyThe good, the bad, & the ugly

• “Good” – Social sciences have taught us a lot

about people, and can teach us so much more

• “Bad” – Work integrating meteorology & social

science is in its infancy

• “Ugly” – We will never be able to save 100% of

people 100% of the time (and sometimes, weather

isn’t even the main influential factor)

• There are so many opportunities of where NWS

and social scientists can work together to do

better at saving lives and property!

& the beautiful& the beautifulSo

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Collaborations are key!Collaborations are key!

• Social scientists, meteorologists, NWS,

broadcasters, practitioners, policy-makers,

– Value and integrate each others’ expertise

– Listen to and learn from each other

– Co-produce new knowledge

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None of us individually can (or

should!) do it all

None of us individually can (or

should!) do it all

• Jeff Lazo issuing 7-day forecasts + forecaster

developing and implementing a survey to elicit

people’s interpretations, perceptions, and

behaviors re: weather forecasts = disaster!

• Jeff developing the survey + forecaster issuing the

7-day forecasts + working and learning together

= success!

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The sum is so much greater than the parts!The sum is so much greater than the parts!

NWS collaborative efforts & resourcesNWS collaborative efforts & resources

• NWS social science focal point – Jen Sprague

• Integrated Warning Team (IWT) workshops

– Julie Adolphson & Andy Bailey (Kansas City/Pleasant Hill)

– Jim Meyer & Dan Nietfeld (Omaha/Valley)

– Mike Coyne & Krissy Scotten (Huntsville)

– Upcoming Kansas-wide IWT (more tomorrow!)

• SAFER workshop

– Craig Schmidt & Darone Jones

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Key take-home pointsKey take-home points

• Ultimate goal of weather forecasting is to create

societal value by providing usable information for

decision making

• Social sciences use the scientific process

• Societal impacts and social sciences both have a

role … they’re not the same … each has its place

• Collaborations are key!

Thank you!Thank you!

• Acknowledgements

– Jen Sprague, Eli Jacks, and Tom Graziano – HQ

– Mike Foster – MIC, WFO OUN

– Doug Hilderbrand – OST

– Brian Lamarre – MIC, WFO TBW

– Jim Meyer – MIC, WFO OAX

– Daniel Nietfeld – SOO, WFO OAX

– John Ogren – Director, NWS Training Center

– Kevin Scharfenberg – OCWWS

– Rick Smith – WCM, WFO OUN

– Dan St Jean – SOO, WFO GYX

– And many others…