socio economic research on fusion (serf) under efda - overview and perspectives c. eherer,...

Socio Economic Research on Fusion Socio Economic Research on Fusion (SERF) under EFDA - Overview and (SERF) under EFDA - Overview and

PerspectivesPerspectivesC. Eherer, [email protected]

SERF Workshop IST CFN

21 July 2007, Lisbon, Portugal

mailto:[email protected]

SERF Workshop, IST CFN Portugal, July 2007

2

OverviewOverview

• Rationale of SERFRationale of SERF• SERF TimelineSERF Timeline• SERF Phases OverviewSERF Phases Overview• Selected resultsSelected results• Current activitiesCurrent activities• Future perspectivesFuture perspectives


3

Rationale of SERFRationale of SERF

• Recommendation of the Fusion Programme Evaluation Recommendation of the Fusion Programme Evaluation Board (FPEB) 1996 Board (FPEB) 1996 – Fusion as an economically and socially acceptable energy

source– Societal implications of fusion power– Complement existing knowledge bases with an additional track

in multi-disciplinary approach– Suggested research areas:

• Economics: direct and external costs of fusion

• Fusion in the energy system, energy scenarios

• Fusion as a large technical and complex system (including governance)

• Public acceptance and public opinion on fusion


4

SERF TimelineSERF Timeline

• SERF 1 (1997-1998), Coordinated by European SERF 1 (1997-1998), Coordinated by European CommissionCommission

• SERF 2 (1999-2000)SERF 2 (1999-2000)• SERF 3 (2001-2002), EFDA Technology WP 2001 (TW1)SERF 3 (2001-2002), EFDA Technology WP 2001 (TW1)• SERF 2002 (TW2)SERF 2002 (TW2)• SERF 2003 (TW3)SERF 2003 (TW3)• SERF 2004 (TW4)SERF 2004 (TW4)• SERF 2005 (TW5)SERF 2005 (TW5)• SERF 2006 (TW6)SERF 2006 (TW6)


5

SERF 1 OverviewSERF 1 Overview

• Research on 5 macro-tasks as suggested by FPEBResearch on 5 macro-tasks as suggested by FPEB• SE0: Long-term scenarios and the role of fusion powerSE0: Long-term scenarios and the role of fusion power

– European MARKAL model until 2100 including fusion

• E1: Production costs of fusion powerE1: Production costs of fusion power– Direct costs of fusion via power plant system code (4 plant

designs; later on PPCS), comparison with other technologies

• E2: External costs of fusionE2: External costs of fusion– ExternE methodology

• S1: Fusion as a large technical systemS1: Fusion as a large technical system– Complexity, governance, megascience, research system

• S2: Fusion and the public opinionS2: Fusion and the public opinion– Structured interviews, focus groups, social impact of large fusion

facilities (Porto Torres fusion experiment siting study)


6


• Improvement of work on external costs of fusion started Improvement of work on external costs of fusion started in SERF 1in SERF 1

• Additional investigations on local public perception of Additional investigations on local public perception of fusion (Porto Torres)fusion (Porto Torres)

• Trust and licensing aspectsTrust and licensing aspects• Politics and megasciencePolitics and megascience


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• Direct fusion cost assessmentDirect fusion cost assessment– Load following– International benchmarking studies (ARIES)– Interaction of physics and technology developments

• External fusion cost assessmentExternal fusion cost assessment– Additional fusion plant concepts– Comparison with advanced versions of competitors

• Fusion as an energy system optionFusion as an energy system option– Fusion in regional models (e.g. India)– Net present value analysis of the fusion option– Future electricity networks (impacts of intermittent sources,

requirements)

• Fusion and public opinionFusion and public opinion– Focus groups around Cadarache (ITER site)


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SERF 2002-2003SERF 2002-2003

• Efforts in energy modelling + model buildingEfforts in energy modelling + model building– PLANELEC model: simulation of electricity supply scenarios

(Western Europe)– Single region global energy model (MARKAL/TIMES) TUG-IPP

model different fusion penetration scenarios– Impact of technological learning on fusion power– Future electricity grids– Start of development of EFDA-TIMES by an external consortium

of companies and experts (global multi-region energy model)

• Public opinionPublic opinion– Awareness of fusion in schools across Europe– Fusion and public risk perception in German speaking countries


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SERF 2004-2005SERF 2004-2005• Fusion in the energy systemFusion in the energy system

– Development of EFDA-TIMES• Various tasks on data collection, first analyses, economic scenarios,

debugging, first peer reviews with subcontracted external partners (AEAT, ECN), international networking and expertise, etc.

– Fusion scenarios and impacts of technological learning, global TUG-IPP energy model

– PLANELEC Pro model: Global long-term electricity supply scenarios

– Fusion in the electricity grid

• Social and economic sciencesSocial and economic sciences– Risk communication guidelines for fusion– Focus groups on long term energy scenarios– Communication of energy scenario results– Spill-over effects and social rate of return on investments in

Fusion research, development, demonstration and deployment


10

SERF 2004-2005 (cont.)SERF 2004-2005 (cont.)

• Social and economic scienceSocial and economic science– International press analysis on the decision to host ITER in

Europe– Review of Impact of Communication EU ITER Site Decision in

Terms of Public Opinion (focus groups around Cadarache and French media analysis)

– Systematic review of social science research concerning large R&D programmes; Identification of key research questions & design of an empirical programme to address the nature of social perception of large R&D programmes


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Selected Results (1)Selected Results (1)

• Energy scenariosEnergy scenarios– ECN, Western Europe MARKAL model (1998)

• Fusion power gets window of opportunity in case of CO2 emission mitigation policies

– TUG-IPP global TIMES model (end 2006 version)• CO2 emissions constraints, corresponding to a stabilisation level of

650 ppm fusion gains a market share


12

Energy scenarios – MARKAL ECN Energy scenarios – MARKAL ECN

Illustrating the effect of constraining CO2 emissions on the 2100 electricity supply in Western Europe in the SERF 1 (1998) ECN studies. As the constraint tightens, the use of coal diminishes and the contribution from other sources, including fusion, increases. Nuclear fission was not allowed to increase in this case.


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Energy scenarios – TUG-IPP TIMESEnergy scenarios – TUG-IPP TIMES

Key assumptions: 650 ppm CO2 constraints; conservative annual fusion capacity growth rates; optimistic non-renewable resources potential; availability of fast breeder reactors; availability of CO2 sequestration


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Selected results (2)Selected results (2)

• Conclusions of recent media analysis and focus group Conclusions of recent media analysis and focus group survey on ITER site decision around Cadarachesurvey on ITER site decision around Cadarache– Overall, (local) newspapers mainly treat ITER or fusion power in

general in a 'neutral' to 'positive' way. – Fusion power is predominantly presented as a 'new' energy

option in media communication (especially w.r.t. fission). On a cognitive level, this message is more or less internalised by focus group participants.

– Risks associated with operation of ITER or fusion power in general do not get much media attention.

– Opportunities for local/regional development tend to be described in a positive way in the newspapers, while the focus group results reveal a more ambiguous picture.


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Selected results (3)Selected results (3)

• Conclusions of recent media analysis and focus group survey on Conclusions of recent media analysis and focus group survey on ITER site decision around Cadarache (cont.)ITER site decision around Cadarache (cont.)– Focus groups results however indicate a certain lack of trust in

government and nuclear agencies when it comes to nuclear energy. In addition, the public debate organised in France was observed critically by the people, as the major decision to host ITER was already taken at international and national level.

– The focus groups revealed a largely uninformed public. Consequently, most focus group participants clearly expressed a need for a more elaborate communication effort, which should be transparent, interactive (i.e. dealing with the questions defined by the local populations), as complete as possible, balanced, and most of all, continuous (i.e. running in parallel to ITER's 'life cycle').

• Recommendation to set up an Recommendation to set up an a targeted research programme with a targeted research programme with the aim of developing a shared perspective on continuous the aim of developing a shared perspective on continuous communication and public engagement in the further development communication and public engagement in the further development of the ITER project. of the ITER project.


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Current activitiesCurrent activities

• EFDA-TIMES development: Review and integrationEFDA-TIMES development: Review and integration• Initial studies of hydrogen production from fusion power plants (will Initial studies of hydrogen production from fusion power plants (will

be fed into the EFDA-TIMES hydrogen module)be fed into the EFDA-TIMES hydrogen module)• Lessons learned from public interaction, participative processes and Lessons learned from public interaction, participative processes and

information/communication strategies in the context of big nuclear information/communication strategies in the context of big nuclear projectsprojects

• Investigating lay understanding and reasoning about fusion Investigating lay understanding and reasoning about fusion technology by means of a group-based methodology suitable to technology by means of a group-based methodology suitable to take lay participants through a learning process about fusiontake lay participants through a learning process about fusion

• Communication quality and lay understanding of fusion technology Communication quality and lay understanding of fusion technology in Poland: a quasi experimental study of message formulation in Poland: a quasi experimental study of message formulation effects on attitude changeeffects on attitude change


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Future perspectives (1)Future perspectives (1)

• EFDA Steering Group appointed AdHoc Group to assess EFDA Steering Group appointed AdHoc Group to assess the achievements of SERF against its original objectives the achievements of SERF against its original objectives and give recommendationsand give recommendations

• General guidelines for SERF in FP7:General guidelines for SERF in FP7:– An increased level of coherence (cf. the EFDA-TIMES Steering

Group recently set-up)– Clear objectives– Multi-year goals– More collaborative actions among Associations– Increased links to universities and other laboratories– Integration of the new EU member countries


18


• Economic studies (WP 2008 working paper)Economic studies (WP 2008 working paper)– Development, exploitation and maintenance (including know-

how) of the EFDA-TIMES global multi-region energy model in a project oriented manner

– Continuing the investigation of economic benefits of spin-offs and spillover effects of fusion R&D, building on the findings of the work done so far and using appropriate economic methodologies

– Continuing the investigation of the economics of non-electric applications of fusion power, starting from the latest achievements of the DEMO studies


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• To continue to have a look on public and decision makers’ To continue to have a look on public and decision makers’ perception and opinions on fusion in order to derive perception and opinions on fusion in order to derive recommendations for different areas of fusion activities, e.g.recommendations for different areas of fusion activities, e.g.– Public Information and communication strategies– Education strategies– Technological aspects and risks (e.g. energy supply, hydrogen vs.

electricity, safety & environment aspects)• To follow the discourse on other technologies under debate, To follow the discourse on other technologies under debate,

emerging and existing ones, and derive lessons learnt for fusion.emerging and existing ones, and derive lessons learnt for fusion.• To develop with field experts from different Associations a common To develop with field experts from different Associations a common

approach or methodology to investigate lay understanding and approach or methodology to investigate lay understanding and reasoning about fusion technology in ways applicable in different reasoning about fusion technology in ways applicable in different European countries.European countries.

• Targeted research programme with the aim of developing a shared Targeted research programme with the aim of developing a shared perspective on continuous communication and public engagement perspective on continuous communication and public engagement in the further development of the ITER project (tbd)in the further development of the ITER project (tbd)


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Thank you!Thank you!


21


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Motivation of EFDA-TIMESMotivation of EFDA-TIMES

• Fusion power practically not considered in existing long-term energy Fusion power practically not considered in existing long-term energy scenarios (e.g. IIASA-WEC, IPCC SRES)scenarios (e.g. IIASA-WEC, IPCC SRES)

• Earlier energy scenario studies within EFDA:Earlier energy scenario studies within EFDA:– Only considered Western Europe (ECN)

– Basic single-region global model (TUG-IPP)

• Thus, need for a tool within EFDA and the Associations to develop Thus, need for a tool within EFDA and the Associations to develop long-term multi-regional energy scenarios with fusion powerlong-term multi-regional energy scenarios with fusion power– State-of-the-art and internationally accepted methodology

– Enabling to contribute to the energy debate with such scenarios

Start of the EFDA-TIMES project in 2004Start of the EFDA-TIMES project in 2004– First version of the EFDA-TIMES Modelling Framework was developed

for EFDA by an external consortium of experts and delivered in autumn 2004


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EFDA-TIMES Intro (1)EFDA-TIMES Intro (1)

• TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System)TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System)– State-of-the-art model generator developed by the Energy

Technology System Analysis Programme (ETSAP) of the IEA– Successor of MARKAL

• Partial equilibrium energy modelPartial equilibrium energy model– Computes a supply-demand equilibrium of energy sector of the

economy the that maximizes net social surplus

• Bottom-up, energy/technology model based on Bottom-up, energy/technology model based on technology explicit representationtechnology explicit representation

• Long-term and multi-period (until 2100)Long-term and multi-period (until 2100)• 15 world regions including different trade mechanisms15 world regions including different trade mechanisms• Covers all sectors of the energy systemCovers all sectors of the energy system


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Fossil FuelExtraction

(46)

OIN***OIP***GAN***GAP***CON***COP***

Supply Steps(25)

BiomassPotential

(8)

BIO***

RenewablePotential

(5)

REN***

OIN***OIP***GAN***GAP***

AggregationProcessing

(11)

OIN***OIP***GAN***GAP***

SecondaryTransformation

(14)

OIN***OIP***GAN***GAP***CON***COP***CON***

COP***

OPEC/NON-OPEC

OIL***GAS***COA***

Electricity FuelsELC***

Electricity(52)

Cogeneration(5)

Heat(11)

BIO***

Nuclear(1)

NUC***

End Use Fuels

TransportationTechnologies

(232)

AgricultureTechnologies

(1)

CommercialTechnologies

(291)

ResidentialTechnologies

(635)

IndustrialService

Composition(12)

I***

Auto Production(16)INDELC

Cogeneration(40)INDELC

IS**

IndustrialTechnologies

(340)

I**(6)

A**(1)

C**(8)

R**(11)

T**(16)

AGR*** COM*** RES*** TRA***IND*** IND***

Upstream Fuels

ELC

HET

Trade


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• TIMES is a model for the prospective analysis of TIMES is a model for the prospective analysis of possible futures by scenarios (not a forecasting model)possible futures by scenarios (not a forecasting model)

• A A ScenarioScenario consists of: consists of:– Demand Curves: reference energy service demand projections +

demand elasticities to own prices (GEM-E3 macroeconomic drivers; + driver elasticities demand projections)

– Supply Curves: primary reserves, annual potentials, expressed as stepped supply curves

– Technology data-base (with optional penetration bounds)– Policy scenario: technology or fuel policies (taxes, subsidies,

portfolio standards), emission policies (caps, taxes), general policies (fuel taxes, etc.)


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• Typical application of TIMES modelsTypical application of TIMES models– Technological assessment

• Analysis of competitiveness • Life-cycle analysis in a dynamic setting (cradle-to-grave)• Assesses bundles of competing and/or of complementary technologies,

rather than stand-alone evaluations• Impact of Technological Progress

– Energy Policy evaluation• energy taxes/subsidies, fiscal measures on investments, etc. • micro-measures: building code, building retrofit programs, energy efficiency

programs, etc.– Emission policy assessment

• Emission taxes • Emission Cap-and-trade systems: global or partial coverage• Emission intensity standards (for industry)

– Energy security evaluation• E.g. Measured by oil/ gas/ nuclear fuel imports


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Components of EFDA-TIMESComponents of EFDA-TIMES

1.1. The data base(s) / files where the model is specified (the EFDA The data base(s) / files where the model is specified (the EFDA data base = the EFDA model)data base = the EFDA model)

2.2. The code that processes the data, generates the economic The code that processes the data, generates the economic equilibrium problem (the TIMES model generator)equilibrium problem (the TIMES model generator)

3.3. The language in which TIMES is written (called GAMS)The language in which TIMES is written (called GAMS)

4.4. The solver of the mathematical programming problem generated The solver of the mathematical programming problem generated (we use CPLEX)(we use CPLEX)

5.5. The user interfaces, that makes it feasible to work with such large The user interfaces, that makes it feasible to work with such large and data intensive models:and data intensive models:• input processing, data management, scenario management (VEDA

Front End) and

• output preparation, result analysis (VEDA Back End)


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Distribution and use of EFDA-TIMESDistribution and use of EFDA-TIMES

1.1. EFDA model database (distributed by EFDA only)EFDA model database (distributed by EFDA only)– Now: only to EU Fusion Associations which request it– May be used by EU Fusion Associations also for domestic

analyses by inserting their country as a 16th region (tbd)– EFDA-TIMES cannot be used for profit or commercial purposes

2.2. The TIMES model generator is available free of charge The TIMES model generator is available free of charge from ETSAP (from ETSAP (www.etsap.orgwww.etsap.org))

3.3. (+4.) GAMS and CPLEX are commercial software and (+4.) GAMS and CPLEX are commercial software and have to be purchasedhave to be purchased

5.5. EFDA has a group license for the Associations for EFDA has a group license for the Associations for VEDA-FE/BE for use with the EFDA database; VEDA VEDA-FE/BE for use with the EFDA database; VEDA has to be purchased by external groupshas to be purchased by external groups

http://www.etsap.org/


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Involved research groupsInvolved research groups

• CIEMAT, SpainCIEMAT, Spain• ENEA, ItalyENEA, Italy• iSpace, Austrian Research Studios, AustriaiSpace, Austrian Research Studios, Austria• Max Planck Institute for Plasma Physics (IPP), GermanyMax Planck Institute for Plasma Physics (IPP), Germany• Politecnico di Torino (POLITO), Italy Politecnico di Torino (POLITO), Italy • Risoe National Laboratory, Denmark Risoe National Laboratory, Denmark • UKAEA Culham, UKUKAEA Culham, UK

– ECN, AEAT as subcontractors

• University of Technology Graz (TUG), AustriaUniversity of Technology Graz (TUG), Austria• VTT-TEKES, FinlandVTT-TEKES, Finland


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Achievements 2005/2006Achievements 2005/2006

• First review of EFDA-TIMES and extensive list of suggestions for improvement by First review of EFDA-TIMES and extensive list of suggestions for improvement by VTT-TEKES and AEATVTT-TEKES and AEAT

• Alternative economic growth assumptions and revised driver elasticities for EFDA-Alternative economic growth assumptions and revised driver elasticities for EFDA-TIMES (ENEA)TIMES (ENEA)

• Data collection and improvementsData collection and improvements– Electricity sector (CIEMAT)

– Non-GHG pollutants (CIEMAT)

– External costs (CIEMAT)

• Methodology for assessing external versus mitigation costs of fusion in long-term Methodology for assessing external versus mitigation costs of fusion in long-term energy scenarios (CIEMAT)energy scenarios (CIEMAT)

• Implementation of a basic nuclear fuel cycle for Uranium (fission) and Lithium (fusion) Implementation of a basic nuclear fuel cycle for Uranium (fission) and Lithium (fusion) (UKAEA)(UKAEA)

• Review and suggestions for improvements of the residential sector (IPP)Review and suggestions for improvements of the residential sector (IPP)• Impacts of Endogenous Technological Learning (ETL) and development of other Impacts of Endogenous Technological Learning (ETL) and development of other

learning approaches, e.g. ATL, Knowledge-Based-Learning (TUG)learning approaches, e.g. ATL, Knowledge-Based-Learning (TUG)


31

Roadmap and perspectivesRoadmap and perspectives

• To speed up the development process of EFDA-TIMES a two stage To speed up the development process of EFDA-TIMES a two stage roadmap has been adopted:roadmap has been adopted:– Stage I: Do what is needed to produce publishable results. Publish the key

assumptions and defensible preliminary results in a definitive paper.– Stage II: Further studies using the model, by fusion associations. Do what is

needed to release a version to non-fusion users, which is attractive enough for them to want to use it.

• Stage I focuses on the following activities:Stage I focuses on the following activities:– Consolidation of the model

• Review of the technology database and model structure• Review of major assumptions and their impact and get them “right”• Stay close to well known IPCC scenarios (as far as possible)

– Implementation of quality guidelines– Centralised management and documentation of the master version of the model– Validation/benchmarking exercise


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Roadmap and perspectives (2)Roadmap and perspectives (2)

EFDA-TIMES Steering Group

- EFDA RO, representatives of involved groups- Quality guidelines- Propose consistent work programme- Advise and review publication- Organise benchmarking exercises and external peer reviews

EFDA-TIMES Steering Group

- EFDA RO, representatives of involved groups- Quality guidelines- Propose consistent work programme- Advise and review publication- Organise benchmarking exercises and external peer reviews

Centralised Management of the Master Version

- To avoid diverging model version- Ensure proper inclusion of changes- Checking of changes by the groups - Ensuring proper motivation and documentation of changes - Collect elements for a model documentation- Release updated master versions to the groups

Centralised Management of the Master Version

- To avoid diverging model version- Ensure proper inclusion of changes- Checking of changes by the groups - Ensuring proper motivation and documentation of changes - Collect elements for a model documentation- Release updated master versions to the groups

Involved GroupsInvolved Groups

Supporting tools:- Internet forum- Ftp-server- Document management system- EFDA-TV (remote desktop sharing)- Video/Phone Conferences

Supporting tools:- Internet forum- Ftp-server- Document management system- EFDA-TV (remote desktop sharing)- Video/Phone Conferences

socio economic research on fusion (serf) under efda - overview and perspectives c. eherer,...

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