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South Worcestershire Demographic Forecasts

August 2013

For the attention of:

www.edgeanalytics.co.uk

http://www.edgeanalytics.co.uk/

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August 2013

Contact Details

Dr Peter Boden [email protected] Dr Kate Staines [email protected] Edge Analytics Ltd Leeds Innovation Centre 103, Clarendon Road Leeds LS2 9DF www.edgeanalytics.co.uk

Acknowledgements

Demographic statistics used in this report have been derived from data from the Office for

National Statistics licensed under the Open Government Licence v.1.0.

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.edgeanalytics.co.uk/

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August 2013

Table of Contents

Contact Details ........................................................................................................................ i

Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................. i

1. Introduction ................................................................................................................... 1

2. Area definition ................................................................................................................ 3

3. Data inputs, assumptions & methodology ....................................................................... 5

4. Scenario Outcomes ........................................................................................................ 16

5. CLG 2011-based household model .................................................................................. 29

6. Scenario Comparisons .................................................................................................... 39

7. Summary ....................................................................................................................... 44

References ............................................................................................................................ 47

Glossary ................................................................................................................................ 48

Edge Analytics ....................................................................................................................... 49

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1. Introduction

Requirements

The South Worcestershire Councils (Malvern Hills District Council, Worcester City Council and 1.1

Wychavon District Council) are preparing housing growth options as part of the South

Worcestershire Development Plan (SWDP).

Housing requirements are intrinsically linked to the size and structure of the population and, in 1.2

turn, population growth can be constrained by housing availability. Any consideration of future

housing development therefore requires robust demographic information and analysis of the

possible impacts of demographic change on the demand and supply of housing, jobs, services,

infrastructure and facilities.

The South Worcestershire councils are seeking to improve the robustness of their SWDP 1.3

evidence base through an examination of the demographic and economic impacts of its SWDP

policies as set out in the South Worcestershire Development Plan: Proposed Submission Plan

January 2013.

This report provides demographic evidence from the SWDP dwelling-led forecast that is 1.4

consistent with that detailed in the SWDP and that includes the Wider Worcester Area (WWA)

geography in the output.

Forecasts have been produced with a base year of 2011 and a forecast horizon of 2030, with 1.5

historical data provided for the period 2001-2010. Output provided from the forecasts includes:

Total population disaggregated by sex and five-year age group;

Components of natural change and migration;

Total number of households;

Total private household population;

The size of the labour force disaggregated by sex and five-year age group.

Through this evidence report, the South Worcestershire councils are also taking the opportunity 1.6

to be informed by the recently published Department for Communities and Local Government

(CLG) interim 2011-based national household projections. The analysis reports on the impact of

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the updated rates of household formation upon household forecasts for the South

Worcestershire councils

Report Structure

Section 2 provides an illustration of the geographical areas for which forecasts have been 1.7

produced. Section 3 details the data inputs, assumptions and model methodology that have been

deployed in the development of the forecasts.

Section 4 provides a summary of the outcome of the scenarios for each geographical area. 1.8

Supporting data has been provided separately to South Worcestershire.

Section 5 provides a commentary on the impact of CLG’s latest household projection model 1.9

(published in April 2013) upon household projections in the South Worcestershire districts. A

comparison of the impacts of the 2008-based CLG headship rates and 2011-based CLG headship

rates is provided, using the SNPP-2010 population projection as a benchmark (further comment

is included in the concluding section).

Section 6 summarises the scenario analysis contained within three separate representations to 1.10

the SWDP.

A concluding section summarises all the scenarios and makes a number of recommendations for 1.11

on-going analysis and provides detail on the output that has been provided to South

Worcestershire to accompany the results presented in this report.

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2. Area definition

The geographical focus of the analysis presented in this report is the amalgamation of the three 2.1

districts of Worcester City, Wychavon and Malvern Hills in South Worcestershire (Figure 1).

Figure 1: South Worcestershire Development Plan area.

Contains Ordnance Survey data © Crown copyright and database right 2012

For scenario modelling purposes, the focus has been Worcester City, plus three bespoke areas 2.2

created to align with the planned urban extensions and defined in Policy SWDP3 (housing

provision and delivery)1. These three areas are illustrated below (Figure 2) and defined as follows:

Wider Worcester Area (WWA), comprising Worcester City plus the planned urban

extension areas;

Malvern Hills, comprising Malvern Hills district excluding the planned urban extensions on

the edge of Worcester City;

1 The settlement of Norton Barracks is located in Wychavon District, although it is encircled by the area of

the proposed allocation SWDP45/1 Broomhall Community and Norton Barracks Community (Worcester South urban extension). As it is a separate settlement, for modelling purposes, the population of Norton Barracks is excluded from the Wider Worcester Area, but it is included in the SWDP Sub-area of Wychavon (excluding the Wider Worcester Area) as set out in the South Worcestershire Development Plan: Proposed Submission Plan - Policy SWDP 3.

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Wychavon, comprising Wychavon district excluding the planned urban extensions on the

edge of Worcester City.

Figure 2: Wider Worcester Area (WWA)

Contains Ordnance Survey data © Crown copyright and database right 2012

For the avoidance of doubt, where the report refers to ‘Worcester’ (including the text, tables, 2.3

diagrams, figures and graphs) this means the administrative area of Worcester City. The area of

Worcester City plus its planned urban extensions is always referred to as the Wider Worcester

Area (WWA).

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3. Data inputs, assumptions & methodology

Summary

The primary purpose of this report is to provide a suite of dwelling-led forecasts of total 3.1

population, households and the labour force (resident economically active population). The

housing trajectories to 2030 are sourced from the ‘South Worcestershire Development Plan:

Proposed Submission Plan’2, consistent with delivering policy SWDP 3.

The development and evaluation of the growth scenarios for South Worcestershire is dependent 3.2

upon the collation of a range of data inputs and assumptions. These inputs provide an historical

perspective on demographic change and assumptions on future growth trajectories.

All data and assumptions are held within POPGROUP and Derived Forecast ‘input’ files, 3.3

configured to enable the specific South Worcestershire scenarios to be evaluated. The following

sub-sections provide a summary of the key components of the population, household and labour

force data inputs, assumptions and methodology used to produce the scenario outcomes

detailed in Section 4.

Population, births, deaths and migration

Population

Historical population statistics are provided by the mid-year population estimates from 2001 to 3.4

2010. These are recorded by single-year of age and sex. Data for 2006–2010 relate to the

‘indicative’ mid-year estimates, released by ONS in May 2012 following revisions to the

methodology for estimating international migration.

For 2011, the mid-year population estimate is used. There is a ‘disconnection’ between the 3.5

2001–2010 mid-year estimates and the 2011 population in that the Census year figure ‘adjusts’

the mid-year estimates to fully account for change over the decade.

An adjustment to population growth resulting from the 2011 Census is most evident in Worcester 3.6

and Wychavon (Figure 3). Census statistics suggest that mid-year estimates have under-

2 http://www.swdevelopmentplan.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/SWDP_Proposed_Submission_doc.pdf

http://www.swdevelopmentplan.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/SWDP_Proposed_Submission_doc.pdf

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estimated Worcester’s population since 2001, whereas there has been a slight over-estimation of

the Wychavon total. With very accurate birth and death statistics available and with robust

internal migration measurement, the ‘error’ in the population estimate can be attributed

primarily to international migration.

Figure 3: Worcester City, Malvern Hills and Wychavon population 2001 to 2011.

Source: Office for National Statistics licensed under the Open Government Licence v.1.0.

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In May 2013, ONS will release revised mid-year estimates for 2002–2010, which update the 3.7

(migration) components of change over the decade and ensure a consistent age-cohort change

over the period. In the meantime, the scenarios presented here have used the 2011 Census-year

mid-year estimate as the base population, using POPGROUP’s cohort component model to adjust

the components of change accordingly for 2010-11.

Births and fertility

Historical mid-year to mid-year counts of births by sex from 2001/2 to 2010/11 for Worcester, 3.8

Wychavon and Malvern Hills have been sourced from ONS Vital Statistics.

A ‘national’ age-specific fertility rate (ASFR) schedule, which measures the expected fertility rates 3.9

by age and sex for England in 2011/12, is included in the POPGROUP model assumptions. To

provide more appropriate area-specific fertility assumptions, a district-specific fertility

differential has been derived from the 2011 Census for Worcester, Malvern Hills and Wychavon.

In combination with the population-at-risk, this provides the basis for the calculation of births in

each year of the forecast period.

Long-term assumptions on change in age-specific fertility rates are taken from ONS 2010-based 3.10

national population projections (SNPP-2010).

Deaths and mortality

Historical mid-year to mid-year counts of deaths by age and sex from 2001/2 to 2010/11 for 3.11

Worcester, Wychavon and Malvern Hills have been sourced from ONS Vital Statistics.

A ‘national’ age-specific mortality rate (ASMR) schedule, which measures the expected mortality 3.12

rates by age and sex for England in 2011/12, is included in the POPGROUP model assumptions. To

provide more appropriate area-specific mortality assumptions, a district-specific mortality

differential has been derived from the 2011 Census for Worcester, Malvern Hills and Wychavon.

In combination with the population-at-risk, these provide the basis for the calculation of deaths

in each year of the forecast period.

Long-term assumptions on change in age-specific mortality rates are taken from ONS 2010-based 3.13

national population projections.

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Internal Migration

The original source of internal migration statistics is the Patient Register Data Service (PRDS) 3.14

which captures the movement of patients as they register with a GP. Historical mid-year to mid-

year counts of in and out-migration by five-year age group and sex from 2001/2 to 2009/10 have

been sourced from the ‘components-of-change’ files which underpin the ONS mid-year

estimates. No data is yet available for the 2010/11 period.

Age-specific migration rate (ASMigR) schedules for both in-migration and out-migration are 3.15

drawn directly from the SNPP-2010 for Worcester City, Malvern Hills and Wychavon. In

combination with the population-at-risk, these provide the basis for the calculation of internal

migration flows in each year of the forecast period.

Long-term assumptions on change in internal migration rates are taken from the SNPP-2010 3.16

projections for Worcester, Malvern Hills and Wychavon. Housing-led and jobs-led scenarios

calculate their own migration assumptions to ensure an appropriate balance between

population, households and the labour force, given the constraints on growth that are imposed in

each scenario.

International Migration

International migration statistics have been sourced from ONS estimates of Total International 3.17

Migration (TIM). Historical mid-year to mid-year counts of total immigration and emigration from

2001/2 to 2009/10 have been sourced from the ‘components-of-change’ files which underpin the

ONS mid-year estimates. No data is yet available for the 2010/11 period.

Long-term assumptions on international migration are taken from the SNPP-2010 projections for 3.18

Worcester, Malvern Hills and Wychavon. Housing-led and jobs-led scenarios calculate their own

migration assumptions to ensure an appropriate balance between population, households and

the labour force, given the constraints on growth that are imposed in each scenario.

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Households

Household statistics have been taken from the 2001 and 2011 Censuses and from the 2008-based 3.19

CLG household model. Data from the 2001 Census and the 2008-based CLG household model

include:

Household type definition (Table 1).

The population not in households, by age and sex.

Headship rates by age, sex and household type from 2001 to 2033. Headship rates are

household formation rates, applied to a population to calculate household numbers.

Household/dwellings ratio based on households (occupied, second homes and vacant) and

dwellings (shared and unshared).

Table 1: Household type classification

CLG Code DF Label Household Type

OPM OPMAL One person households: Male

OPF OPFEM One person households: Female

OCZZP FAMC0 One family and no others: Couple: No dependent children

OC1P FAMC1 One family and no others: Couple: 1 dependent child

OC2P FAMC2 One family and no others: Couple: 2 dependent children

OC3P FAMC3 One family and no others: Couple: 3+ dependent children

OL1P FAML1 One family and no others: Lone parent: 1 dependent child

OL2P FAML2 One family and no others: Lone parent: 2 dependent children

OL3P FAML3 One family and no others: Lone parent: 3+ dependent children

MCZDP MIX C0 A couple and one or more other adults: No dependent children

MC1P MIX C1 A couple and one or more other adults: 1 dependent child

MC2P MIX C2 A couple and one or more other adults: 2 dependent children

MC3P MIX C3 A couple and one or more other adults: 3+ dependent children

ML1P MIX L1 A lone parent and one or more other adults: 1 dependent child

ML2P MIX L2 A lone parent and one or more other adults: 2 dependent children

ML3P MIX L3 A lone parent and one or more other adults: 3+ dependent children

OTAP OTHHH Other households

TOT TOTHH Total

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Additional data have been sourced from the 2011 Census and are as follows: 3.20

Household count for 2011.

The population not in households.

Household/dwellings ratio based on households (occupied, second homes and vacant) and

dwellings (shared and unshared).

Household headship rates have been ‘rescaled’ to ensure that the latest 2011 household counts 3.21

are replicated by the POPGROUP model. The CLG headship rate trend continues thereafter. In

addition, the latest data on population not-in-households from the 2011 Census have been used

to update the CLG model information.

The relationship between households and dwellings is modelled using a vacancy rate, consistent 3.22

with the 2011 Census. These are as follows:

Worcester City = 2.84%

Malvern Hills = 4.38%

Wychavon = 4.74%

The household projections presented here are based on data taken from the 2008-based 3.23

household model, the latest available when the project was commissioned. CLG released its

2011-based household projections during the course of this project. An indication of the

implication of this new evidence upon trend projections for the South Worcestershire districts is

provided in section 5 and summarised in section 7.

Employment & Economic Activity

There are three key data items required to derive the size of the labour force and the number of 3.24

jobs: the commuting ratio, an unemployment rate and economic activity rates. Economic activity

rates provide the basis for calculating the size of the labour force within the population. The

commuting ratio and unemployment rate control the balance between the size of the labour

force and the number of jobs available within an area.

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Economic Activity Rates

Economic activity rates have been derived from a combination of 2001 Census statistics and the 3.25

latest evidence from the Labour Force Survey (via NOMIS). NOMIS data provide an average

economic activity rate for Worcestershire for the period 2007–2011 by broad age-group.

Sample data for the individual districts are insufficiently robust to allow their direct application so 3.26

Worcestershire rates are used for Worcester, Wychavon and Malvern Hills. This is consistent with

the previous SHMA approach.

Using the 2001 Census data, these economic activity rates were disaggregated to provide an 3.27

economic activity rate by five year age-group and sex for all labour-force ages to age 74. This

differs from previous SHMA work where only more aggregate age groups were available with a

65+ age category.

To account for an expected increase in the rate of labour force participation in the older age 3.28

groups, economic activity rates for the 50-74 age range rise by 10% over the 2011-2030 period.

Again, this differs from previous SHMA analysis which applied a 50% increase in rates to the older

65+ age-group. These changes do not have a significant impact upon the forecast size of the

labour force compared to previous analyses.

Figure 4: Economic activity rates 2011 – Worcestershire

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Unemployment Rate

Average unemployment rates (population aged 16–64) for each of the three districts have been 3.29

calculated from unemployment statistics for the period 2007–2012 (sourced from NOMIS, based

on the ILO definition) and are as follows:

Worcester City = 4.9%

Malvern Hills = 4.3%

Wychavon = 3.7%

Unemployment rates are fixed for the duration of the forecast period.

Commuting Ratio

A commuting ratio is derived as the balance between the size of the resident labour force and 3.30

the number of the jobs available in the county. Ratio statistics for each of the three districts have

been taken from the 2001 Census and are as follows:

Worcester City = 0.928

Malvern Hills = 1.197

Wychavon = 1.144

These ratios indicate that for Malvern and Wychavon there is a net outflow of commuters and for 3.31

Worcester, a net inflow of commuters. Commuting ratios are fixed for the duration of the

forecast period. (Note: commuting statistics from the 2011 Census are likely to become available

in 2014).

Forecasting methodology

Forecasts have been developed using POPGROUP technology. Population projections delivered 3.32

using POPGROUP use a standard cohort component methodology (the methodology used by the

UK statistical agencies). The household projections use a standard household headship rate

methodology as employed by CLG for its household projection statistics. A more detailed

description of the population and household projection methodologies is available from the User

Guide and Reference Manual on the POPGROUP website www.ccsr.ac.uk/popgroup/

about/manuals.html.

http://www.ccsr.ac.uk/popgroup/about/manuals.html

http://www.ccsr.ac.uk/popgroup/about/manuals.html

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The following illustrations provide a schematic illustration of the operation of the POPGROUP and 3.33

Derived Forecast (household) methodologies.

Figure 5: POPGROUP population projection methodology

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Figure 6: Derived Forecast Model: household & labour force projection methodology

Scenario Definition

The scenario output presented here is for a ‘dwelling-led’ forecast that is consistent with that 3.34

detailed in the SWDP. The scenario has been developed for the three SWDP areas (as defined in

Figure 2) and for the district of Worcester City (excluding the urban extension zones).

Forecasts have been produced with a base year of 2011 and a forecast horizon of 2030, with 3.35

supporting historical data provided for the period 2001-2010.

Expected housing completion rates for each area have been sourced from the SWDP evidence3 3.36

and are summarised in Figure 7.

3 http://www.swdevelopmentplan.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/SWDP_Proposed_Submission_doc.pdf

http://www.swdevelopmentplan.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/SWDP_Proposed_Submission_doc.pdf

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Figure 7: Housing completion rates used in dwelling-led scenario. Source: SWDP

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4. Scenario Outcomes

Scenario Statistics

A dwelling-led demographic forecast has been developed for Worcester and the three SWDP 4.1

areas for the time period 2011–2030. This section provides a summary of the key scenario

outputs plus a detailed presentation of the scenario results, organised as follows:

Total population disaggregated by sex and five-year age group, 2001-2030;

Components of natural change and migration, 2011-2030;

Household numbers by type, 2011-2030;

Total labour force disaggregated by sex and five-year age group, 2011-2030.

Scenario Summary

The summary tables and charts (Table 2, Table 3, and Table 4 and Figure 8) present an illustration 4.2

of the demographic implications of the target level of housing growth in each area. The dwelling

growth outcomes presented in the scenario summary tables are consistent with those detailed in

Figure 7. The WWA achieves an average housing growth of 408 units per year from 2011 to 2030;

Wychavon 419 units and Malvern Hills 193 (Table 4). As a single district, Worcester City achieves

an average of 201 units per year over this time period.

Table 2: Scenario summary – total change 2011 – 2030

* excluding the WWA urban extension zones

PopulationNatural

Change

Net

MigrationHouseholds Dwellings

Labour

ForceJobs

Malvern* 3,810 -6,912 10,720 3,510 3,671 -3,528 -2,820

Wychavon* 9,564 -1,013 10,574 7,578 7,956 -3,309 -2,785

WWA 9,559 11,758 -2,199 7,524 7,744 2,649 2,714

South

Worcestershire

(SWDP)

22,933 3,833 19,096 18,612 19,370 -4,188 -2,891

Worcester City 756 10,073 -9,318 3,710 3,819 -2,578 -2,641

Total Change 2011 - 2030

Area

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Table 3: Scenario summary – percentage change 2011 – 2030


Table 4: Scenario summary – average annual change 2011 – 2030


Whilst population growth is positive in each case, the balance between natural change and net 4.3

migration varies between areas (Table 2). Both Malvern Hills and Wychavon experience a net loss

due to natural change over the period 2011-2030; i.e. an excess of deaths over births of -6,912

and -1,013 respectively. In each case, this is combined with net in-migration of over 10,000,

resulting in overall population growth in both areas.

In contrast, the WWA has a high projected natural change balanced by a smaller net outflow due 4.4

to migration. When considering just Worcester City population growth in limited, a result of

higher net out-migration from the district.

Population Households Labour Force

Malvern* 5.1% 10.9% -10.2%

Wychavon* 8.2% 15.3% -5.8%

WWA 9.7% 17.9% 5.0%

South

Worcestershire

(SWDP)

7.9% 15.0% -2.91%

Worcester City 0.8% 8.8% -4.9%

Percentage Change 2011 - 2030

Area

PopulationNatural

Change

Net

MigrationHouseholds Dwellings

Labour

ForceJobs

Malvern* 201 -364 564 185 193 -186 -148

Wychavon* 503 -53 557 399 419 -174 -147

WWA 503 619 -116 396 408 139 143

South

Worcestershire

(SWDP)

1,207 202 1,005 980 1,019 -220 -152

Worcester City 40 530 -490 195 201 -136 -139

Average Annual Change 2011 - 2030 (19 years)

Area

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The expected labour force change is modelled using a combination of economic activity rates, 4.5

unemployment and commuting ratios. Economic activity rates for the 50-74 years-olds increase

by 10% over the projection period; rates for other age-groups remain fixed. Unemployment and

commuting parameters are fixed for the duration of the projection period. The existing and

evolving age-structures of the respective areas have a significant impact upon the size of the

resident labour force.

Figure 8: Population, households and labour force change 2011 – 2030.

In Malvern Hills and Wychavon, the housing growth scenarios suggest that the size of the labour 4.6

force will decline by 10% and 6% respectively over the projection period (Table 3). In the WWA,

the labour force increases by over 5% during the same period. When considering just Worcester

City, limited housing growth suggests a labour force decline of approximately 5%. This indicates

that the increase in the economically active population as the result of the scale of housing

growth achieved through the planned Worcester urban extensions effectively offsets the forecast

reduction in the number of economically active within the City.

More detail on these headline numbers is provided in the tables and charts that follow. 4.7

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Population Change

Table 5: SWDP scenario: population change, 2001-2030 – Malvern (excluding WWA) and Wychavon (excluding WWA).

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2030

Persons 0-4 3,363 3,380 3,274 3,656 3,634 3,440 3,131

5-9 4,033 4,029 3,632 3,711 4,217 4,126 3,963

10-14 4,740 4,914 4,386 4,170 4,317 4,830 4,730

15-19 4,613 5,138 4,886 4,424 4,282 4,375 4,777

20-24 2,730 2,096 3,168 2,354 2,116 1,929 1,981

25-29 2,977 2,788 2,887 3,658 3,030 2,678 2,452

30-34 4,072 3,167 2,937 3,117 4,034 3,280 2,978

35-39 4,908 4,897 3,713 3,404 3,707 4,651 4,107

40-44 4,991 5,518 5,147 4,030 3,772 4,046 4,782

45-49 4,876 5,276 5,756 5,294 4,180 3,863 4,085

50-54 5,954 4,979 5,396 5,915 5,507 4,307 3,894

55-59 5,252 6,127 5,145 5,464 6,064 5,607 4,725

60-64 4,415 5,283 6,054 5,130 5,514 6,087 5,769

65-69 4,035 4,327 5,214 5,980 5,131 5,493 5,891

70-74 3,533 3,745 4,145 4,964 5,762 4,940 5,251

75-79 3,189 3,173 3,440 3,761 4,592 5,345 4,636

80-84 2,238 2,538 2,645 2,921 3,296 4,077 4,806

85-89 1,384 1,460 1,764 1,985 2,307 2,665 3,175

90+ 711 831 961 1,448 1,982 2,603 3,227

Total 72,014 73,666 74,550 75,386 77,444 78,342 78,360

Malvern_WWA

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2030

Persons 0-4 6,110 6,059 5,690 6,351 6,402 6,253 5,828

5-9 6,893 6,618 6,093 6,075 6,700 6,716 6,520

10-14 7,001 7,180 6,625 6,240 6,154 6,766 6,725

15-19 6,114 6,509 6,787 6,231 5,848 5,742 6,186

20-24 4,987 4,644 5,363 5,769 5,029 4,608 4,458

25-29 5,689 5,126 5,350 6,424 6,570 5,701 5,010

30-34 8,040 6,226 5,454 5,860 6,780 6,861 6,016

35-39 8,752 8,742 6,780 6,187 6,492 7,416 7,530

40-44 8,122 9,354 8,838 7,247 6,515 6,793 7,451

45-49 7,993 8,416 9,322 9,129 7,359 6,566 6,692

50-54 9,142 8,025 8,360 9,662 9,352 7,485 6,562

55-59 7,990 9,205 8,056 8,546 9,800 9,451 7,872

60-64 6,352 7,933 9,091 8,152 8,581 9,827 9,583

65-69 5,551 6,343 7,600 9,022 8,046 8,474 9,556

70-74 5,040 5,181 5,955 7,305 8,661 7,734 7,934

75-79 4,227 4,399 4,684 5,465 6,747 8,027 7,204

80-84 2,758 3,329 3,558 3,984 4,716 5,894 6,997

85-89 1,573 1,821 2,261 2,666 3,066 3,716 4,474

90+ 731 887 1,187 1,803 2,458 3,218 4,020

Total 113,065 115,997 117,054 122,118 125,276 127,248 126,618

Wychavon_WWA

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Population Change

Table 6: SWDP scenario: population change, 2001-2030 – WWA and Worcester City.

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2030

Persons 0-4 6,078 5,735 6,390 6,552 6,490 6,455 6,201

5-9 5,900 5,488 5,569 5,926 6,106 6,035 5,947

10-14 5,785 5,574 5,478 5,388 5,750 5,911 5,792

15-19 5,498 5,896 6,431 5,829 5,747 6,095 6,166

20-24 5,973 6,213 7,434 7,793 7,267 7,087 6,978

25-29 6,848 6,470 7,039 7,849 8,421 7,780 7,093

30-34 8,554 6,874 6,956 7,267 8,244 8,746 7,883

35-39 7,919 7,971 6,941 6,599 6,968 7,909 8,455

40-44 6,484 7,402 7,484 6,538 6,248 6,583 6,939

45-49 5,750 6,189 7,258 7,197 6,325 6,030 6,269

50-54 6,104 5,473 6,096 7,073 7,054 6,195 5,705

55-59 5,081 5,810 5,445 5,909 6,895 6,873 6,257

60-64 4,139 4,651 5,579 5,156 5,631 6,576 6,528

65-69 3,788 3,885 4,337 5,233 4,865 5,320 6,112

70-74 3,240 3,344 3,447 3,970 4,831 4,509 4,771

75-79 2,888 2,668 2,890 3,012 3,521 4,308 4,009

80-84 1,975 2,083 2,048 2,312 2,472 2,936 3,550

85-89 1,061 1,173 1,322 1,383 1,635 1,798 2,072

90+ 482 587 708 897 1,105 1,425 1,684

Total 93,547 93,486 98,852 101,883 105,575 108,571 108,411

WWA

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2030

Persons 0-4 6,070 5,726 6,384 6,475 6,078 5,652 5,281

5-9 5,890 5,478 5,562 5,882 5,933 5,550 5,233

10-14 5,774 5,562 5,467 5,350 5,630 5,662 5,373

15-19 5,489 5,887 6,422 5,749 5,595 5,850 5,922

20-24 5,967 6,209 7,426 7,492 6,660 6,404 6,587

25-29 6,841 6,464 7,034 7,599 7,489 6,564 6,198

30-34 8,543 6,866 6,947 7,116 7,564 7,359 6,530

35-39 7,905 7,958 6,933 6,512 6,595 6,981 7,096

40-44 6,470 7,387 7,472 6,475 6,037 6,093 6,168

45-49 5,734 6,175 7,240 7,133 6,154 5,715 5,814

50-54 6,087 5,458 6,084 7,011 6,881 5,927 5,403

55-59 5,066 5,795 5,430 5,867 6,746 6,612 5,975

60-64 4,128 4,638 5,564 5,120 5,530 6,359 6,270

65-69 3,780 3,875 4,325 5,200 4,788 5,176 5,906

70-74 3,232 3,336 3,437 3,947 4,766 4,403 4,636

75-79 2,882 2,661 2,884 2,996 3,480 4,222 3,913

80-84 1,971 2,077 2,044 2,300 2,440 2,879 3,476

85-89 1,059 1,170 1,318 1,372 1,606 1,752 2,026

90+ 481 586 706 889 1,079 1,375 1,628

Total 93,369 93,308 98,679 100,485 101,051 100,535 99,435

Worcester City

21

August 2013

Components of Change 2011/12 to 2029/30

Figure 9: SWDP scenario: components of change 2011-2030 – Malvern (excluding WWA) and Wychavon (excluding WWA).

22

August 2013

Components of Change 2011/12 to 2029/30

Figure 10: SWDP scenario: components of change, 2011-2030 – WWA and Worcester.

23

August 2013

Household Change

Table 7: SWDP scenario: household change 2001-2030 – Malvern (excluding WWA) and Wychavon (excluding WWA).

Note: For a description of household categories, refer to Table 1 on page 9. Household numbers have been

derived using the 2008-based CLG headship rates.

Malvern_WWA

Category of Households 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2030

OPMAL 3,363 3,668 3,970 4,256 4,570 4,796 4,855

OPFEM 5,255 5,579 6,160 6,817 7,602 8,455 8,972

FAM C0 10,050 10,535 11,347 12,058 12,506 12,620 12,826

FAM C1 1,824 1,944 1,907 1,859 1,830 1,780 1,726

FAM C2 2,519 2,584 2,360 2,186 2,104 1,992 1,868

FAM C3 1,077 1,097 977 860 811 805 773

FAM L1 530 635 699 732 780 825 856

FAM L2 406 498 534 571 622 676 699

FAM L3 178 195 200 212 232 239 242

MIX C0 2,319 2,022 1,801 1,585 1,385 1,164 1,023

MIX C1 588 501 424 348 278 226 198

MIX C2 257 260 238 205 198 201 197

MIX C3 93 99 110 123 123 116 120

MIX L1 126 143 156 164 165 162 165

MIX L2 59 69 69 67 74 80 83

MIX L3 22 23 22 21 21 20 21

OTHHH 1,382 1,245 1,176 1,150 1,127 1,082 1,037

Total 30,047 31,096 32,151 33,214 34,428 35,239 35,661

Private household population 69,552 71,158 72,334 72,976 74,802 75,427 75,198

Population / Households 2.31 2.29 2.25 2.20 2.17 2.14 2.11

Number of households

Wychavon_WWA


OPMAL 4,880 5,544 5,982 6,715 7,408 8,118 8,461

OPFEM 7,386 8,023 8,482 9,406 10,183 11,018 11,516

FAM C0 15,598 17,106 17,988 19,666 20,932 21,699 22,072

FAM C1 3,381 3,449 3,413 3,597 3,697 3,582 3,396

FAM C2 4,565 4,616 4,338 4,253 4,164 4,087 4,026

FAM C3 1,706 1,729 1,589 1,523 1,487 1,467 1,433

FAM L1 845 953 1,025 1,147 1,249 1,297 1,300

FAM L2 668 743 770 833 894 931 939

FAM L3 219 253 261 279 308 343 358

MIX C0 3,736 3,204 2,665 2,280 1,930 1,625 1,388

MIX C1 1,011 831 692 611 504 390 323

MIX C2 364 314 259 234 204 166 139

MIX C3 119 86 64 49 38 28 21

MIX L1 233 225 218 221 212 195 182

MIX L2 83 94 96 102 109 111 114

MIX L3 37 41 39 40 46 47 47

OTHHH 2,050 1,807 1,575 1,485 1,421 1,383 1,321

Total 46,881 49,018 49,459 52,442 54,786 56,488 57,037




24

August 2013

Household Change

Table 8: SWDP scenario: household change 2001-2030 – WWA and Worcester.

Note: For a description of household categories, refer to Table 1 on page 9. Household numbers have been

derived using the 2008-based CLG headship rates.

WWA


OPMAL 4,960 5,610 6,343 6,993 7,685 8,301 8,556

OPFEM 6,636 7,038 7,610 8,198 8,888 9,660 10,126

FAM C0 11,076 11,538 12,345 13,149 14,013 14,533 14,668

FAM C1 2,802 2,818 3,022 3,169 3,406 3,571 3,573

FAM C2 3,507 3,286 3,176 3,046 3,016 2,970 2,871

FAM C3 1,394 1,284 1,209 1,124 1,093 1,075 1,035

FAM L1 1,007 1,119 1,314 1,475 1,647 1,795 1,845

FAM L2 701 718 767 793 854 913 935

FAM L3 271 288 312 328 366 410 428

MIX C0 2,639 2,300 2,112 1,950 1,802 1,675 1,609

MIX C1 848 713 645 574 513 464 417

MIX C2 334 324 364 413 448 460 463

MIX C3 143 159 181 194 213 236 247

MIX L1 263 288 326 350 386 419 437

MIX L2 98 85 79 79 79 79 73

MIX L3 50 43 40 37 34 30 30

OTHHH 2,409 2,274 2,266 2,249 2,266 2,307 2,322

Total 39,137 39,885 42,111 44,120 46,709 48,897 49,635




Worcester


OPMAL 4,950 5,598 6,333 6,906 7,362 7,680 7,817

OPFEM 6,622 7,022 7,596 8,121 8,639 9,199 9,580

FAM C0 11,052 11,513 12,322 13,002 13,498 13,617 13,675

FAM C1 2,797 2,813 3,018 3,121 3,217 3,209 3,143

FAM C2 3,500 3,280 3,172 3,006 2,874 2,702 2,545

FAM C3 1,391 1,282 1,207 1,109 1,041 975 910

FAM L1 1,005 1,117 1,312 1,450 1,560 1,634 1,661

FAM L2 700 717 766 780 807 823 824

FAM L3 271 288 311 323 344 365 370

MIX C0 2,633 2,295 2,108 1,931 1,749 1,589 1,523

MIX C1 846 711 644 569 498 439 391

MIX C2 333 323 363 408 429 427 425

MIX C3 143 159 181 192 204 215 218

MIX L1 262 287 326 345 366 379 386

MIX L2 97 85 79 77 74 69 64

MIX L3 50 43 40 36 32 28 27

OTHHH 2,404 2,270 2,262 2,215 2,173 2,166 2,193

Total 39,056 39,802 42,042 43,590 44,867 45,515 45,752




25

August 2013

Labour Force Change

Table 9: SWDP scenario: labour force change 2001-2030 – Malvern (excluding WWA) and Wychavon (excluding WWA).

Malvern_WWA

Gender Age 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2030Male 16-19 958 1,081 1,032 965 913 965 1,035Male 20-24 1,216 1,037 1,347 1,109 1,027 934 998Male 25-29 1,389 1,341 1,293 1,668 1,459 1,318 1,195Male 30-34 1,868 1,429 1,297 1,276 1,692 1,444 1,343Male 35-39 2,242 2,262 1,655 1,442 1,453 1,871 1,693Male 40-44 2,313 2,525 2,342 1,787 1,590 1,573 1,887Male 45-49 2,180 2,420 2,592 2,376 1,827 1,598 1,593Male 50-54 2,714 2,226 2,474 2,690 2,562 2,002 1,757Male 55-59 2,100 2,491 2,083 2,300 2,528 2,393 2,040Male 60-64 1,310 1,531 1,816 1,569 1,753 1,916 1,825Male 65-69 256 269 319 389 341 379 407Male 70-74 112 123 137 164 203 178 193Female 16-19 975 1,060 1,060 922 880 868 959Female 20-24 940 629 1,148 756 653 597 578Female 25-29 1,173 1,064 1,187 1,477 1,155 995 922Female 30-34 1,622 1,282 1,213 1,374 1,743 1,359 1,206Female 35-39 2,041 2,015 1,579 1,512 1,746 2,150 1,864Female 40-44 2,137 2,393 2,243 1,799 1,758 2,005 2,346Female 45-49 2,145 2,265 2,515 2,321 1,878 1,817 2,011Female 50-54 2,462 2,098 2,218 2,580 2,470 2,027 1,941Female 55-59 1,832 2,104 1,774 1,909 2,247 2,132 1,844Female 60-64 707 865 959 840 914 1,069 1,047Female 65-69 171 187 228 260 230 249 277Female 70-74 60 62 68 85 98 87 93

Total 34,924 34,759 34,582 33,571 33,120 31,926 31,054

Size of Labour Force

Wychavon_WWA

Gender Age 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2030Male 16-19 1,292 1,405 1,446 1,340 1,211 1,222 1,293Male 20-24 2,072 2,028 2,282 2,486 2,187 1,982 1,964Male 25-29 2,627 2,360 2,486 2,927 3,053 2,681 2,369Male 30-34 3,630 2,747 2,438 2,622 2,994 3,092 2,734Male 35-39 4,175 4,004 3,108 2,789 2,927 3,298 3,405Male 40-44 3,745 4,428 3,951 3,295 2,906 3,028 3,267Male 45-49 3,706 3,846 4,300 4,005 3,273 2,859 2,909Male 50-54 4,241 3,636 3,771 4,512 4,256 3,539 3,092Male 55-59 3,350 3,817 3,331 3,579 4,247 3,986 3,399Male 60-64 1,914 2,434 2,761 2,533 2,701 3,198 3,066Male 65-69 350 399 483 582 531 566 658Male 70-74 159 169 197 249 300 273 282Female 16-19 1,251 1,312 1,447 1,345 1,227 1,180 1,300Female 20-24 1,850 1,635 1,942 2,061 1,778 1,650 1,554Female 25-29 2,268 2,050 2,119 2,595 2,602 2,230 1,948Female 30-34 3,253 2,574 2,228 2,391 2,801 2,781 2,419Female 35-39 3,488 3,625 2,810 2,604 2,732 3,160 3,161Female 40-44 3,496 3,922 3,917 3,161 2,893 3,018 3,360Female 45-49 3,395 3,627 3,981 4,086 3,253 2,959 3,020Female 50-54 3,713 3,338 3,493 4,108 4,280 3,468 3,152Female 55-59 2,659 3,099 2,721 3,000 3,498 3,632 3,073Female 60-64 1,002 1,229 1,423 1,314 1,436 1,672 1,720Female 65-69 237 271 321 396 363 397 451Female 70-74 86 86 97 122 150 138 146

Total 57,960 58,042 57,052 58,105 57,599 56,009 53,744


26

August 2013

Labour Force Change

Table 10: SWDP scenario: labour force change 2001-2030 – WWA and Worcester.

WWA

Gender Age 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2030Male 16-19 1,124 1,227 1,404 1,247 1,256 1,269 1,302Male 20-24 2,230 2,507 3,017 3,174 2,924 2,925 2,795Male 25-29 3,013 2,846 3,138 3,676 3,944 3,607 3,401Male 30-34 3,999 3,152 3,187 3,337 3,977 4,211 3,740Male 35-39 3,809 3,826 3,240 3,084 3,269 3,908 4,211Male 40-44 3,077 3,533 3,550 3,002 2,878 3,043 3,314Male 45-49 2,718 2,855 3,433 3,346 2,850 2,723 2,827Male 50-54 2,845 2,503 2,841 3,403 3,424 2,992 2,779Male 55-59 2,070 2,402 2,271 2,570 3,093 3,111 2,838Male 60-64 1,230 1,378 1,699 1,615 1,841 2,216 2,220Male 65-69 230 239 262 341 326 372 440Male 70-74 97 107 110 129 169 163 178Female 16-19 1,217 1,293 1,448 1,320 1,220 1,365 1,373Female 20-24 2,442 2,372 2,823 2,949 2,782 2,648 2,683Female 25-29 2,861 2,705 2,906 3,083 3,308 3,089 2,717Female 30-34 3,343 2,739 2,774 2,892 3,116 3,313 3,033Female 35-39 3,129 3,156 2,827 2,685 2,824 3,037 3,218Female 40-44 2,712 3,078 3,132 2,826 2,693 2,827 2,884Female 45-49 2,394 2,642 3,021 3,049 2,763 2,628 2,736Female 50-54 2,467 2,256 2,465 2,917 3,034 2,813 2,658Female 55-59 1,741 1,962 1,822 1,996 2,374 2,466 2,330Female 60-64 662 746 871 824 907 1,079 1,104Female 65-69 167 170 192 228 216 238 276Female 70-74 58 57 59 69 83 79 84

Total 49,637 49,750 52,492 53,762 55,270 56,120 55,141


Worcester

Gender Age 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2030Male 16-19 1,123 1,224 1,403 1,230 1,225 1,221 1,255Male 20-24 2,228 2,505 3,013 3,066 2,713 2,677 2,658Male 25-29 3,010 2,843 3,137 3,562 3,537 3,092 3,018Male 30-34 3,994 3,148 3,182 3,266 3,647 3,568 3,144Male 35-39 3,803 3,821 3,237 3,038 3,081 3,432 3,541Male 40-44 3,071 3,526 3,543 2,969 2,764 2,790 2,920Male 45-49 2,711 2,849 3,425 3,312 2,761 2,557 2,595Male 50-54 2,837 2,496 2,836 3,371 3,331 2,847 2,610Male 55-59 2,064 2,396 2,265 2,551 3,022 2,981 2,696Male 60-64 1,227 1,374 1,695 1,603 1,806 2,138 2,124Male 65-69 230 238 262 338 320 361 424Male 70-74 96 106 109 128 167 159 172Female 16-19 1,215 1,291 1,446 1,297 1,182 1,303 1,319Female 20-24 2,440 2,371 2,820 2,822 2,520 2,361 2,515Female 25-29 2,859 2,702 2,902 2,983 2,915 2,562 2,332Female 30-34 3,338 2,736 2,771 2,833 2,860 2,766 2,473Female 35-39 3,123 3,151 2,823 2,654 2,684 2,696 2,695Female 40-44 2,706 3,072 3,128 2,802 2,617 2,640 2,586Female 45-49 2,388 2,636 3,014 3,026 2,698 2,512 2,563Female 50-54 2,461 2,250 2,459 2,893 2,969 2,706 2,537Female 55-59 1,736 1,957 1,817 1,982 2,327 2,383 2,237Female 60-64 660 744 869 819 892 1,047 1,065Female 65-69 167 169 192 226 213 232 267Female 70-74 58 57 58 69 82 77 82

Total 49,543 49,663 52,406 52,842 52,332 51,109 49,828


27

August 2013

Summary: South Worcestershire SWDP4

Table 11: SWDP Population change, 2001-2030

Figure 11: SWDP Components of change, 2001-2030

4 SWDP is an amalgamation of the WWA, Wychavon (minus the WWA) and Malvern Hills (minus the WWA).

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2030

Persons 0-4 15,551 15,174 15,354 16,559 16,526 16,148 15,160

5-9 16,826 16,135 15,294 15,712 17,023 16,877 16,430

10-14 17,526 17,668 16,489 15,798 16,221 17,507 17,247

15-19 16,225 17,543 18,104 16,484 15,877 16,212 17,129

20-24 13,690 12,953 15,965 15,916 14,412 13,624 13,417

25-29 15,514 14,384 15,276 17,931 18,021 16,159 14,555

30-34 20,666 16,267 15,347 16,244 19,058 18,887 16,877

35-39 21,579 21,610 17,434 16,190 17,167 19,976 20,092

40-44 19,597 22,274 21,469 17,815 16,535 17,422 19,172

45-49 18,619 19,881 22,336 21,620 17,864 16,459 17,046

50-54 21,200 18,477 19,852 22,650 21,913 17,987 16,161

55-59 18,323 21,142 18,646 19,919 22,759 21,931 18,854

60-64 14,906 17,867 20,724 18,438 19,726 22,490 21,880

65-69 13,374 14,555 17,151 20,235 18,042 19,287 21,559

70-74 11,813 12,270 13,547 16,239 19,254 17,183 17,956

75-79 10,304 10,240 11,014 12,238 14,860 17,680 15,849

80-84 6,971 7,950 8,251 9,217 10,484 12,907 15,353

85-89 4,018 4,454 5,347 6,034 7,008 8,179 9,721

90+ 1,924 2,305 2,856 4,148 5,545 7,246 8,931

Total 278,626 283,149 290,456 299,387 308,295 314,161 313,389

SWDP

28

August 2013

Table 12: SWDP Labour force change 2001 – 2030

Table 13: SWDP Household Change 2001 – 2030

SWDP

Gender Age 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2030Male 16-19 3,374 3,713 3,882 3,551 3,379 3,456 3,631Male 20-24 5,518 5,572 6,646 6,768 6,138 5,840 5,757Male 25-29 7,030 6,546 6,917 8,272 8,456 7,606 6,964Male 30-34 9,497 7,328 6,922 7,234 8,663 8,747 7,817Male 35-39 10,227 10,092 8,003 7,315 7,650 9,077 9,309Male 40-44 9,136 10,486 9,842 8,084 7,374 7,645 8,468Male 45-49 8,605 9,121 10,325 9,727 7,951 7,180 7,329Male 50-54 9,800 8,365 9,086 10,605 10,243 8,533 7,628Male 55-59 7,521 8,711 7,685 8,450 9,869 9,491 8,278Male 60-64 4,454 5,343 6,277 5,717 6,295 7,331 7,111Male 65-69 836 907 1,065 1,312 1,198 1,317 1,505Male 70-74 368 398 443 542 672 614 653Female 16-19 3,442 3,665 3,955 3,587 3,327 3,413 3,632Female 20-24 5,231 4,636 5,913 5,766 5,213 4,894 4,814Female 25-29 6,303 5,819 6,212 7,155 7,065 6,314 5,587Female 30-34 8,217 6,595 6,215 6,658 7,660 7,452 6,658Female 35-39 8,658 8,797 7,215 6,801 7,302 8,347 8,243Female 40-44 8,345 9,394 9,293 7,786 7,343 7,849 8,589Female 45-49 7,934 8,534 9,518 9,456 7,893 7,404 7,767Female 50-54 8,643 7,692 8,176 9,605 9,784 8,308 7,751Female 55-59 6,232 7,164 6,317 6,906 8,120 8,231 7,248Female 60-64 2,371 2,841 3,254 2,979 3,257 3,820 3,871Female 65-69 575 627 742 883 809 884 1,004Female 70-74 204 204 224 277 331 303 324

Total 142,521 142,551 144,126 145,437 145,989 144,055 139,939


SWDP


OPMAL 13,203 14,822 16,295 17,963 19,662 21,215 21,873

OPFEM 19,277 20,640 22,252 24,421 26,673 29,133 30,614

FAM C0 36,725 39,179 41,680 44,873 47,451 48,851 49,566

FAM C1 8,007 8,210 8,341 8,625 8,933 8,932 8,695

FAM C2 10,591 10,486 9,875 9,486 9,285 9,049 8,765

FAM C3 4,176 4,110 3,775 3,508 3,392 3,347 3,240

FAM L1 2,381 2,708 3,039 3,354 3,676 3,917 4,001

FAM L2 1,774 1,959 2,071 2,196 2,371 2,520 2,573

FAM L3 669 736 773 819 906 992 1,028

MIX C0 8,694 7,527 6,578 5,815 5,117 4,464 4,020

MIX C1 2,447 2,045 1,761 1,534 1,295 1,080 939

MIX C2 955 898 861 852 850 828 799

MIX C3 355 344 356 366 374 381 388

MIX L1 622 656 701 734 763 776 784

MIX L2 239 248 245 248 262 270 270

MIX L3 109 106 101 98 101 97 99

OTHHH 5,841 5,327 5,017 4,884 4,814 4,772 4,680

Total 116,066 119,998 123,721 129,776 135,923 140,624 142,333




29

August 2013

5. CLG 2011-based household model

Context

In April 2013, CLG released its new household projections for local authority districts in England. 5.1

These household projections are underpinned by the 2011-based interim sub-national population

projections published by ONS in September 2012 (CLG, 2013a; 2013b; 2013c).

Household projections are derived through the application of household headship rates (also 5.2

referred to as ‘household representative rates’ in the CLG documentation). The projected

household headship rates used in the 2011 household model have been derived using 2011

Census data in combination with statistics from the Labour Force Survey.

The new household projections replace the previous, 2008-based household projections. They 5.3

provide an update on likely household growth trajectories, taking account of the unprecedented

economic conditions that have affected local communities since 2008.

Sensitivity tests

The new CLG household model provides an important update to the evidence base, with the 5.4

general trend in the 2011-based projections suggesting a reduction in the rate of household

growth 2011-2021, compared to previous projections.

Rates of household growth are determined by two factors; the profile and change in household 5.5

headship rates by household type, age and sex; and secondly the underlying rate of population

growth.

The new CLG household model projections are underpinned by the interim 2011 population 5.6

projection (from the ONS). This projection uses 2011 Census statistics for its base period

population but has used assumptions from the 2010-based population projection to define its

fertility, mortality and migration components of change. For this reason, the 2011-based

population projections do not provide a robust ‘trend’ projection of population growth.

To provide a more appropriate test of the ‘sensitivity’ of the new household headship rates upon 5.7

future household growth, the ONS 2010-based sub-national population projection (SNPP-2010)

30

August 2013

has been used in conjunction with 2008-based and 2011-based household headship rates. The

population projections are scaled to match 2011 Census totals, following the 2010-based growth

trend thereafter.

South Worcestershire

Evidence is presented here for each of the three South Worcestershire districts and for South 5.8

Worcestershire as a whole. The short commentary provided relates specifically to Worcester City

but the data presented for Malvern Hills and Wychavon suggest very similar outcomes.

The impact of the 2011 headship rates is to reduce the scale of household growth over the 2011-5.9

2021 period (Figure 12). Using the 2010-based population projection, scaled to the 2011 Census

total, household numbers are projected to increase by just 7.6% using the 2011-based headship

rates, compared to 9.3% with the 2008-based alternatives (Table 14).

With a reduction in the projected rate of household formation, a higher average household size is 5.10

maintained when applying the 2011-based headship rates; by 2021, the occupancy ratio in

Worcester using the 2008-based headship rates is 2.21 (Table 15), compared to a ratio of 2.25

when using the 2011-based headship rates (Table 16).

The revised 2011-based headship rates have had the most significant impact upon single-person 5.11

households (OPMAL, OPFEM) and family households with no children (FAMC0). This has been

slightly offset by increases in the ‘couple and one or more other adults: no dependent children’

(MIXC0) and the miscellaneous ‘Other’ classification (Figure 13).

In summary, projected household growth in the three districts of South Worcestershire during 5.12

2011-2021 is reduced by approximately 14% (1,550 households) as a result of the application of

the latest headship rate information.

31

August 2013

Worcester City

Figure 12: Worcester City – household growth 2011 – 2021, comparison of 2008-based and 2011-based headship rates.

Table 14: Change in household numbers 2011–2021 using 2008-based and 2011-based headship rates, Worcester City.

Table 15: Household numbers in Worcester City by type (2011–2021) using 2008-based headship rates.

Note: For a description of household categories, refer to Table 1 on page 9

Worcester

City

Headship rates 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Total %

2008-based HR 42,437 42,811 43,177 43,550 43,994 44,415 44,840 45,238 45,629 46,015 46,375 3,938 9.3%

2011-based HR 42,407 42,772 43,107 43,425 43,777 44,111 44,421 44,734 45,030 45,334 45,631 3,224 7.6%

Households Change

2011-2021

Worcester City

Category of Households 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

OPMAL 6,385 6,510 6,646 6,766 6,908 7,046 7,172 7,301 7,413 7,533 7,647

OPFEM 7,721 7,835 7,950 8,045 8,163 8,267 8,378 8,483 8,596 8,713 8,837

FAM C0 12,479 12,618 12,765 12,922 13,087 13,247 13,403 13,541 13,651 13,761 13,851

FAM C1 3,026 3,058 3,087 3,124 3,160 3,197 3,239 3,282 3,329 3,364 3,403

FAM C2 3,187 3,156 3,126 3,100 3,079 3,066 3,052 3,045 3,042 3,034 3,028

FAM C3 1,213 1,193 1,171 1,153 1,141 1,130 1,120 1,113 1,110 1,103 1,100

FAM L1 1,305 1,344 1,377 1,412 1,442 1,474 1,505 1,538 1,571 1,602 1,628

FAM L2 765 770 776 780 784 794 805 814 827 839 854

FAM L3 311 314 319 320 324 329 336 342 350 360 368

MIX C0 2,134 2,094 2,055 2,025 1,993 1,959 1,924 1,887 1,848 1,812 1,773

MIX C1 650 635 617 606 594 578 567 549 537 525 509

MIX C2 366 379 386 400 410 420 429 435 439 446 444

MIX C3 182 184 186 188 191 195 199 202 207 210 214

MIX L1 326 333 336 341 347 351 359 364 372 377 385

MIX L2 79 79 78 75 78 79 78 78 76 79 78

MIX L3 40 39 37 37 37 37 37 35 34 33 34

OTHHH 2,268 2,270 2,264 2,257 2,255 2,245 2,238 2,231 2,227 2,225 2,223

Total 42,437 42,811 43,177 43,550 43,994 44,415 44,840 45,238 45,629 46,015 46,375

Private household

population96,750 97,413 98,060 98,692 99,299 99,877 100,426 100,964 101,475 101,971 102,450

Population / Households 2.28 2.28 2.27 2.27 2.26 2.25 2.24 2.23 2.22 2.22 2.21

Households (2010-based population projection, 2008-based household headship rates)

32

August 2013

Table 16: Household numbers in Worcester City by type (2011–2021) using 2011-based headship rates.

Note: For a description of household categories, refer to Table 1 on page 9.

Figure 13: Worcester City – total number of households by type in 2021.

Worcester City


OPMAL 6,097 6,195 6,285 6,363 6,458 6,552 6,638 6,729 6,805 6,888 6,967

OPFEM 7,387 7,467 7,533 7,571 7,630 7,684 7,738 7,800 7,867 7,931 8,008

FAM C0 11,324 11,329 11,312 11,309 11,297 11,297 11,293 11,281 11,250 11,211 11,168

FAM C1 2,961 2,995 3,038 3,081 3,126 3,168 3,204 3,242 3,282 3,323 3,358

FAM C2 3,103 3,073 3,057 3,040 3,032 3,018 3,002 2,987 2,979 2,975 2,969

FAM C3 1,177 1,156 1,145 1,128 1,118 1,106 1,093 1,084 1,077 1,073 1,068

FAM L1 1,430 1,484 1,539 1,598 1,650 1,699 1,746 1,795 1,843 1,894 1,939

FAM L2 828 843 859 874 891 907 922 939 958 983 1,004

FAM L3 337 342 351 356 365 372 381 390 403 415 429

MIX C0 3,114 3,155 3,186 3,232 3,267 3,303 3,333 3,356 3,374 3,391 3,406

MIX C1 656 644 631 621 612 598 588 575 563 551 540

MIX C2 360 373 383 400 413 425 436 443 449 454 456

MIX C3 176 181 184 187 191 194 197 201 205 208 213

MIX L1 356 366 378 388 400 410 419 429 440 450 460

MIX L2 88 87 87 87 88 89 90 90 91 91 91

MIX L3 42 41 42 43 43 42 43 43 43 44 44

OTHHH 2,972 3,041 3,098 3,147 3,198 3,247 3,295 3,348 3,400 3,453 3,510

Total 42,407 42,772 43,107 43,425 43,777 44,111 44,421 44,734 45,030 45,334 45,631

Private household

population96,772 97,435 98,083 98,718 99,321 99,900 100,445 100,982 101,492 101,983 102,459



33

August 2013

Malvern Hills

Figure 14: Malvern Hills – household growth 2011–2021, comparison of 2008-based and 2011-based headship rates.

Table 17: Change in household numbers 2011–2021 using 2008-based and 2011-based headship rates, Malvern Hills.

Table 18: Household numbers in Malvern Hills by type (2011–2021) using 2008-based headship rates.


Malvern Hills


2008-based HR 32,169 32,409 32,651 32,915 33,187 33,462 33,733 34,014 34,287 34,568 34,853 2,684 8.3%

2011-based HR 32,215 32,447 32,664 32,894 33,120 33,349 33,587 33,810 34,045 34,291 34,539 2,324 7.2%

Households Change

2011-2021

Malvern Hills


OPMAL 3,956 4,015 4,074 4,136 4,204 4,264 4,325 4,390 4,457 4,528 4,602

OPFEM 6,182 6,319 6,462 6,600 6,733 6,854 6,993 7,148 7,310 7,476 7,640

FAM C0 11,356 11,522 11,683 11,843 12,022 12,188 12,330 12,449 12,549 12,642 12,725

FAM C1 1,904 1,895 1,887 1,883 1,875 1,874 1,873 1,871 1,868 1,867 1,865

FAM C2 2,362 2,321 2,282 2,253 2,219 2,195 2,175 2,158 2,144 2,134 2,124

FAM C3 986 959 937 915 897 878 864 853 844 837 833

FAM L1 692 703 711 718 724 734 741 752 764 774 788

FAM L2 531 537 544 550 556 564 573 583 592 604 617

FAM L3 196 197 198 201 201 203 206 212 214 219 224

MIX C0 1,806 1,762 1,716 1,680 1,643 1,611 1,574 1,533 1,495 1,457 1,418

MIX C1 428 413 400 386 370 361 348 334 322 310 294

MIX C2 242 234 230 223 217 212 209 208 204 204 205

MIX C3 112 115 119 120 124 128 130 131 132 132 132

MIX L1 157 162 163 165 168 170 174 174 176 175 175

MIX L2 69 69 68 69 68 67 68 68 69 71 73

MIX L3 22 21 22 21 21 21 21 22 22 21 21

OTHHH 1,168 1,164 1,154 1,151 1,145 1,138 1,130 1,128 1,124 1,118 1,115

Total 32,169 32,409 32,651 32,915 33,187 33,462 33,733 34,014 34,287 34,568 34,853

Private household

population72,470 72,585 72,745 72,920 73,151 73,418 73,690 73,974 74,275 74,622 74,979



34

August 2013

Table 19: Household numbers in Malvern Hills by type (2011–2021) using 2011-based headship rates.


Figure 15: Malvern Hills – total number of households by type in 2021.

Malvern Hills


OPMAL 3,762 3,777 3,794 3,816 3,834 3,847 3,866 3,886 3,908 3,939 3,971

OPFEM 6,079 6,163 6,243 6,323 6,390 6,448 6,528 6,616 6,718 6,824 6,926

FAM C0 10,935 10,987 11,029 11,081 11,124 11,165 11,189 11,190 11,182 11,174 11,160

FAM C1 1,914 1,949 1,981 2,011 2,047 2,084 2,122 2,160 2,198 2,232 2,270

FAM C2 2,164 2,150 2,142 2,129 2,127 2,127 2,129 2,137 2,145 2,150 2,163

FAM C3 900 887 878 867 859 852 847 844 844 846 850

FAM L1 680 701 722 740 762 784 805 827 853 877 906

FAM L2 474 484 496 505 516 527 540 555 572 586 605

FAM L3 174 178 180 182 185 188 193 199 203 210 214

MIX C0 2,550 2,556 2,557 2,569 2,578 2,593 2,601 2,598 2,599 2,597 2,593

MIX C1 443 439 437 432 428 425 422 416 409 404 394

MIX C2 226 225 222 220 218 216 217 217 218 220 222

MIX C3 106 110 114 118 123 129 134 138 141 141 143

MIX L1 161 167 172 179 183 190 197 202 205 208 212

MIX L2 62 62 62 63 63 65 65 67 69 71 73

MIX L3 20 20 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

OTHHH 1,566 1,590 1,616 1,642 1,664 1,688 1,711 1,737 1,763 1,792 1,818

Total 32,215 32,447 32,664 32,894 33,120 33,349 33,587 33,810 34,045 34,291 34,539

Private household

population72,440 72,565 72,736 72,925 73,165 73,444 73,728 74,025 74,339 74,697 75,065



35

August 2013

Wychavon

Figure 16: Wychavon – household growth 2011–2021, comparison of 2008-based and 2011-based headship rates.

Table 20: Change in household numbers 2011–2021 using 2008-based and 2011-based headship rates, Wychavon.

Table 21: Household numbers in Wychavon by type (2011–2021) using 2008-based headship rates.


Wychavon


2008-based HR 49,321 49,736 50,152 50,593 51,064 51,536 51,980 52,415 52,872 53,330 53,761 4,440 9.0%

2011-based HR 49,356 49,758 50,137 50,534 50,947 51,337 51,707 52,082 52,476 52,897 53,320 3,964 8.0%

Households Change

2011-2021

Wychavon


OPMAL 5,950 6,071 6,183 6,315 6,448 6,582 6,696 6,827 6,970 7,116 7,259

OPFEM 8,385 8,537 8,673 8,817 8,965 9,091 9,204 9,333 9,484 9,631 9,778

FAM C0 17,951 18,232 18,522 18,797 19,100 19,417 19,693 19,953 20,176 20,393 20,591

FAM C1 3,415 3,443 3,476 3,505 3,528 3,554 3,589 3,614 3,635 3,650 3,656

FAM C2 4,363 4,327 4,292 4,269 4,235 4,208 4,193 4,174 4,171 4,169 4,173

FAM C3 1,595 1,572 1,550 1,535 1,514 1,499 1,488 1,477 1,475 1,476 1,479

FAM L1 1,021 1,043 1,066 1,085 1,102 1,122 1,143 1,165 1,184 1,207 1,229

FAM L2 769 779 790 801 808 815 829 839 855 868 883

FAM L3 260 261 265 265 266 271 274 281 285 294 301

MIX C0 2,672 2,578 2,494 2,412 2,344 2,274 2,205 2,138 2,063 1,996 1,926

MIX C1 698 684 668 650 634 615 597 577 557 532 508

MIX C2 261 255 249 242 237 233 228 220 213 207 203

MIX C3 65 61 59 55 54 49 49 44 42 40 38

MIX L1 219 218 219 219 221 218 221 220 218 216 212

MIX L2 97 99 101 101 100 100 104 105 107 107 108

MIX L3 39 38 38 38 40 39 40 40 41 43 44

OTHHH 1,562 1,536 1,509 1,488 1,468 1,446 1,428 1,407 1,395 1,384 1,371

Total 49,321 49,736 50,152 50,593 51,064 51,536 51,980 52,415 52,872 53,330 53,761

Private household

population115,693 116,322 116,968 117,616 118,254 118,875 119,492 120,114 120,750 121,398 122,045



36

August 2013

Table 22: Household numbers in Wychavon by type (2011–2021) using 2011-based headship rates.

Note: For a description of household categories, refer to Table 1 on page 9.

Figure 17: Worcester – total number of households by type in 2021.

Wychavon


OPMAL 5,384 5,433 5,478 5,538 5,591 5,640 5,687 5,738 5,804 5,874 5,944

OPFEM 7,803 7,865 7,914 7,968 8,021 8,043 8,068 8,097 8,151 8,199 8,254

FAM C0 16,889 17,023 17,162 17,284 17,410 17,550 17,668 17,758 17,816 17,881 17,935

FAM C1 3,468 3,525 3,580 3,633 3,693 3,747 3,807 3,864 3,921 3,972 4,021

FAM C2 4,022 3,990 3,952 3,924 3,900 3,878 3,854 3,841 3,843 3,854 3,869

FAM C3 1,464 1,442 1,417 1,397 1,378 1,361 1,346 1,335 1,331 1,331 1,334

FAM L1 1,104 1,142 1,182 1,215 1,252 1,285 1,321 1,362 1,404 1,449 1,493

FAM L2 753 766 779 791 804 818 831 849 868 889 910

FAM L3 253 256 260 264 266 272 277 284 291 302 313

MIX C0 4,327 4,368 4,415 4,465 4,516 4,576 4,629 4,676 4,703 4,735 4,768

MIX C1 722 713 704 696 684 672 659 645 630 613 593

MIX C2 241 237 231 225 220 215 210 206 201 196 192

MIX C3 60 57 54 52 51 49 47 45 42 41 40

MIX L1 237 242 245 249 252 255 258 259 262 263 263

MIX L2 95 98 99 100 101 103 105 106 107 110 114

MIX L3 37 38 38 38 38 38 38 40 41 42 44

OTHHH 2,499 2,562 2,626 2,695 2,768 2,833 2,901 2,974 3,060 3,146 3,234

Total 49,356 49,758 50,137 50,534 50,947 51,337 51,707 52,082 52,476 52,897 53,320

Private household

population115,673 116,309 116,964 117,620 118,267 118,895 119,522 120,153 120,799 121,456 122,111



37

August 2013

Summary: South Worcestershire

Figure 18: South Worcestershire – household growth 2011–2021, comparison of 2008-based and 2011-based headship rates.

Table 23: Change in household numbers 2011–2021 using 2008-based and 2011-based headship rates, South Worcestershire

Table 24: Household numbers in South Worcestershire by type (2011–2021) using 2008-based headship rates.

Note: South Worcestershire area is an amalgamation of Worcester City, Malvern Hills and Wychavon.

South

Worcestershire


2008-based HR 123,927 124,955 125,980 127,059 128,245 129,413 130,553 131,668 132,788 133,913 134,989 11,062 8.9%

2011-based HR 123,978 124,976 125,909 126,852 127,844 128,796 129,715 130,625 131,551 132,522 133,490 9,512 7.7%

Households Change

2011-2021

S. Worcestershire


OPMAL 16,291 16,595 16,903 17,217 17,561 17,892 18,193 18,518 18,839 19,177 19,508

OPFEM 22,288 22,691 23,085 23,462 23,861 24,212 24,574 24,965 25,390 25,820 26,255

FAM C0 41,786 42,372 42,969 43,562 44,209 44,851 45,426 45,943 46,376 46,796 47,167

FAM C1 8,345 8,397 8,451 8,512 8,563 8,625 8,701 8,767 8,832 8,880 8,924

FAM C2 9,912 9,804 9,700 9,621 9,532 9,470 9,420 9,377 9,357 9,337 9,326

FAM C3 3,793 3,724 3,658 3,602 3,552 3,507 3,472 3,444 3,430 3,416 3,412

FAM L1 3,018 3,090 3,154 3,215 3,268 3,330 3,389 3,455 3,519 3,583 3,645

FAM L2 2,065 2,086 2,110 2,131 2,148 2,174 2,206 2,236 2,275 2,312 2,354

FAM L3 768 773 782 786 791 804 815 835 850 872 893

MIX C0 6,612 6,434 6,265 6,117 5,979 5,845 5,704 5,557 5,406 5,264 5,118

MIX C1 1,775 1,732 1,685 1,643 1,598 1,554 1,511 1,459 1,416 1,366 1,311

MIX C2 868 868 865 865 864 865 866 863 856 857 853

MIX C3 359 361 364 364 369 373 377 377 382 382 385

MIX L1 703 713 718 725 735 740 754 759 766 769 771

MIX L2 244 247 247 245 246 246 249 251 252 257 260

MIX L3 101 98 97 96 98 97 97 97 97 98 99

OTHHH 4,999 4,970 4,927 4,896 4,869 4,830 4,797 4,766 4,745 4,727 4,709

Total 123,927 124,955 125,980 127,059 128,245 129,413 130,553 131,668 132,788 133,913 134,989

Private household

population284,913 286,319 287,773 289,228 290,704 292,170 293,607 295,052 296,500 297,991 299,474



38

August 2013

Table 25: Household numbers in South Worcestershire by type (2011–2021) using 2011-based headship rates.

Figure 19: South Worcestershire – total number of households by type in 2021.

S. Worcestershire


OPMAL 15,243 15,404 15,557 15,717 15,883 16,039 16,191 16,353 16,517 16,701 16,882

OPFEM 21,268 21,495 21,690 21,861 22,041 22,175 22,334 22,513 22,735 22,954 23,189

FAM C0 39,147 39,340 39,503 39,674 39,831 40,013 40,150 40,229 40,247 40,266 40,262

FAM C1 8,343 8,469 8,598 8,726 8,866 8,999 9,133 9,267 9,401 9,528 9,650

FAM C2 9,289 9,213 9,152 9,093 9,059 9,023 8,985 8,965 8,967 8,979 9,001

FAM C3 3,541 3,486 3,440 3,392 3,355 3,320 3,287 3,263 3,251 3,250 3,252

FAM L1 3,214 3,327 3,442 3,552 3,663 3,768 3,872 3,984 4,101 4,220 4,338

FAM L2 2,055 2,093 2,133 2,169 2,212 2,252 2,294 2,343 2,398 2,458 2,519

FAM L3 764 776 791 802 817 832 851 872 897 926 956

MIX C0 9,991 10,078 10,159 10,266 10,361 10,472 10,563 10,630 10,676 10,723 10,767

MIX C1 1,820 1,796 1,772 1,748 1,723 1,695 1,669 1,637 1,602 1,568 1,526

MIX C2 827 836 837 846 851 856 863 867 867 870 870

MIX C3 342 348 352 357 365 372 378 385 389 391 396

MIX L1 753 775 795 816 835 855 875 890 907 921 936

MIX L2 245 247 248 250 251 258 261 263 267 272 277

MIX L3 99 99 98 100 101 100 101 103 104 105 108

OTHHH 7,037 7,194 7,340 7,484 7,630 7,767 7,908 8,059 8,223 8,391 8,563

Total 123,978 124,976 125,909 126,852 127,844 128,796 129,715 130,625 131,551 132,522 133,490

Private household

population284,885 286,309 287,784 289,262 290,754 292,239 293,694 295,160 296,629 298,136 299,636



39

August 2013

6. Scenario Comparisons

Context

Following the publication of the SWDP Proposed Significant Changes to the 2011 Preferred 6.1

Options a number of representations were received which included alternative population and

household projection model outputs:

Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners on behalf of Miller Strategic Land (September 2012);

Pegasus Group (February 2013);

PSL Research Ltd (February 2013).

Scenario output from these representations is set out within this section, together with a 6.2

summary of the underpinning assumptions. The intention of this is to enable comparison with

the output presented in Section 4 of this report.

The representations included scenario outputs modelled using a range of different assumptions 6.3

linked to demographic, economic and dwelling/market (including affordable housing need)

factors. The consideration of these scenarios is structured around these headings in order to

allow for easier comparison.

Demographic Scenarios

NLP has used the POPGROUP suite of software to model an alternative demographic scenario 6.4

built using the SNPP-2010 dataset and the 2008 sub-national household projection (SNHP). The

2011 Census results were not available at the time of modelling and are therefore not included.

The Pegasus Group has used the Chelmer suite of software to produce a series of alternative 6.5

demographic trend based projections, with these including:

2010 Based Sub-national Population Projections (the use of the SNPP-2010 data appears

unclear with the SNPP-2008 data identified as an input assumption as well as the 2010

based national population projections);

Validation of 2008 based population projections (this validates the model against the ONS

2008 based SNHP dataset); and

40

August 2013

Zero Net Migration (this scenario forecasts the population, household and dwelling growth

based on zero net migration in the three local authorities).

Unfortunately the two reports provide scenario output over different time periods, with NLP 6.6

producing outputs for period 2011–2030 (consistent with this report) and the Pegasus Group

presenting outputs over the full plan period 2006–2030. This makes direct comparison difficult.

Therefore, in order to enable comparison, per annum figures are presented (Table 26). It is

recommended that these should be compared with caution owing to the different time periods

covered.

Table 26: Contrasting the different demographic modelled scenarios

Source: NLP, 2012, Pegasus Group, 2013 (interpretation)

The results show a variety of dwelling requirements, from 512 under the Pegasus Group Zero Net 6.7

Migration scenario, to 1,120 under the NLP demographic scenario.

The PSL Research Ltd report does not include re-modelled scenarios using a recognised cohort 6.8

projection model. However, it does produce an alternative recommended housing requirement

which takes into account a number of demographic datasets and factors. These include a re-

basing to the number of households evidenced through the 2011 Census and the use of a longer-

term migration trend (seven years considered between 2003 and 2010 rather than the standard

ONS approach of basing it on a five year period). In addition, the updated projection looks at the

impact of alternative economic activity rates which is considered in the following section. As all

three factors are altered within the model analysis, this scenario is not presented here but is

summarised below.

Period 2010 SNPP Period 2010 SNPP2008

validation

Zero net

migration

Pop. Change 2011-30 27,909 2006-30 34,060 27,800 7,256

Household change 2011-30 20,632 2006-30 25,691 23,046 12,042

Dwelling change 2011-30 21,278 2006-30 26,427 23,743 12,278

Annual dwelling change 19 years 1,120 24 years 1,101 989 512

South

Worcestershire

Figures

Pegasus GroupNLP

41

August 2013

Economic Constrained Scenarios

The NLP report presents two employment-constrained projections. The first of these is a new 6.9

scenario which constrains the modelled demographic scenario to the Advantage West Midlands

economic scenarios considered within the 2012 SHMA. The second is a scenario produced within

the initial 2011 report produced by NLP as part of earlier representation and constrains the

future population to a level of job growth forecast by Experian. The employment-constrained

scenarios integrate alternative economic assumptions including unemployment rates, economic

activity rates and commuting ratios. The use of different assumptions around the treatment of

changing economic activity rates of older persons is documented (note that the assumptions

used in the modelling within this report are different from those used in the 2012 SHMA

modelling). The job outputs within the NLP modelling are built based on an existing jobs density

ratio which is a different approach from that used to create the outputs set out in section 4 of

this report.

The Pegasus Group has not produced an employment constrained projection; however, they 6.10

have estimated labour-force change linked to each of the modelled demographic scenarios again

through the application of assumptions around unemployment, economic activity rates and

commuting.

As noted above, the PSL Research Ltd Report produces an estimated requirement for housing 6.11

that also factors in varied assumptions to economic activity rates. It is important to reference the

fact that this is not integrated using a demographic cohort model and is not therefore directly

comparable to the modelling in this report or the modelled outputs in the other representations.

The NLP employment constrained scenarios show a per annum dwelling requirement of between 6.12

1,127 and 1,690. The PSL Research Ltd report shows a per annum growth of 1,275 dwellings

(Table 27). The final figure in particular is difficult to compare due to the methodology adopted

which varies considerably against the approaches taken in this report and by NLP and Pegasus

Group.

The scale of variation in the number of dwellings required is based upon the level of assumed job 6.13

growth as well as, to a more minor extent, the application of input economic assumptions

including economic activity rates. In deriving potential levels of job growth the NLP Report uses a

methodology which detaches this element from the changing size of the labour-force. Whilst

labour-force figures are provided, the job growth total is estimated from applying the current

42

August 2013

ratio of workers to jobs (a ratio of approximately 0.8 across South Worcestershire) to the future

estimated size of the labour-force. This represents a different approach from that used within the

POPGROUP model and presented within Section 4 with the relationship directly derived from the

application of a commuting ratio to the labour-force to account for labour movements in the

future.

Table 27: Contrasting the scenarios including employment-constrained scenarios

Source: NLP, 2012, Pegasus Group, 2013, PSL Research Ltd, 2013 (interpretation)

Other Scenarios/Factors

The NLP report models a dwelling-constrained scenario linked to the ‘Significant Changes 6.14

Proposed Dwelling Requirement’ (1,005 dwellings per annum across South Worcestershire,

derived by removing completions over the period 2006 - 2011).

The Pegasus Group report also presents a dwelling-constrained scenario, constrained to the 6.15

SWDP (23,200 dwellings between 2006 and 2030). The modelled outputs for these two scenarios

are presented below (Table 28).

Of interest in the table below are the alternative levels of labour-force decline projected under 6.16

the two scenarios. If these are translated into per annum figures (to take account of different

time periods) the values range from -185 persons under the NLP modelling and -492 persons

under the Pegasus Group modelling. This serves to highlight the sensitivities linked to varying the

underpinning economic assumptions.

Period2010

SNPPAWM Experian Period

2010

SNPP

2008

valid'n

Zero net

mign

Pop. Change 2011-30 27,909 28,779 49,818 2006-30 34,060 27,800 7,256 -

Household change 2011-30 20,632 20,718 - 2006-30 25,691 23,046 12,042 -

Labour force change 2011-30 -183 333 - 2006-30 -4,025 -8,427 -19,721 -

Jobs change 2011-30 4,050 4,454 11,966 2006-30 - - - -

Dwelling change 2011-30 21,278 21,414 32,113 2006-30 26,427 23,743 12,278 30,600

Annual labour force change 19 years -10 18 - 24 years -168 -351 -822 -

Annual dwelling change 19 years 1120 1127 1690 24 years 1101 989 512 1,275

NLP Pegasus GroupSouth Worcestershire

FiguresPSL

43

August 2013

Table 28: Contrasting the scenarios including employment-constrained scenarios

Source: NLP, 2012, Pegasus Group, 2013 (interpretation)

By way of comparison, the analysis presented in Section 4 shows a per annum loss of 220 persons 6.17

from the labour-force. This is under a dwelling-constrained scenario based on the SWDP dwelling

figures.

The varied outputs from the dwelling-constrained scenarios considered in this sub-section 6.18

highlight the sensitivities of any modelling approach to the assumptions which are built in. This

serves to highlight the need to apply caution when comparing and contrasting the outputs of

what appear to be similar models. The analysis within this section has noted a number of

variations in the assumptions made concerning economic activity rates and the demographic

starting points for conducting analysis.

PeriodSignificant Changes

Dwelling ScenarioPeriod

Emerging Dev. Plan

Dwelling Requirements

Pop. Change 2011-30 22,958 2006-30 22,193

Household change 2011-30 18,557 2006-30 22,585

Labour force change 2011-30 -3,523 2006-30 -11,816

Jobs change 2011-30 2,691 2006-30 -

Dwelling change 2011-30 19,077 2006-30 23,200

Annual labour force change 19 years -185 24 years -492

Annual dwelling change 19 years 1,004 24 years 967

NLP Pegasus GroupSouth

Worcestershire Figures

44

August 2013

7. Summary

Scenario Summary

This report has used the latest available evidence to evaluate the demographic impact of South 7.1

Worcestershire’s SWDP housing growth scenario. As a final summary illustration, the SWDP

growth alternative is benchmarked directly against the scenarios produced in the three

representations received by South Worcestershire (Table 29).

Table 29: South Worcestershire scenario summary (ranked in order of population growth)

*scenarios 2011 – 2030,

+ scenarios 2006 – 2030

Direct comparison of scenarios is difficult due to the different data, assumptions and 7.2

methodologies used, particularly in determining the relationship between demographic and

economic change. But the general pattern of variance between scenario alternatives is clear from

the summary illustration.

Company Scenario Population Labour-force Households Dwellings

NLP* Experian Forecasts 2,622 - - 1,690

NLP*Alternative Employment

Scenario (AWM)1,515 18 1,090 1,127

NLP* 2010 SNPP 1,469 -10 1086 1,120

Pegasus Group+ 2010 SNPP 1,419 -168 1070 1,101

SWDP (2006-2030)+ Dwelling-led 1,260 -109 931 1,012

NLP*Significant Changes

Dwelling Scenario1,208 -185 977 1,004

SWDP (2011-2030)* Dwelling-led 1,207 -220 980 1,075

Pegasus Group+ 2008 validation 1,158 -351 960 989

Pegasus Group+ Emerging Development Plan

Dwelling Requirements 925 -492 941 967

Pegasus Group+ Zero net migration 302 -822 502 512

- - - 1,275

Average Annual ChangeSouth Worcestershire Summary

PSL Research Ltd+

45

August 2013

CLG 2011-based household projections

During April 2013, CLG released its new household projection model, a summary of which has 7.3

been provided in Section 5. The 2011-based population projection which underpins the new CLG

household projection is not sufficiently robust to enable direct comparison with other scenarios.

However, the headship rates provide important new information on projected rates of household

growth.

Using the latest ONS 2010-based trend projection as a benchmark, it has been demonstrated that 7.4

projected household growth in the three districts of South Worcestershire during 2011-2021 is

reduced by approximately 14% (1,550 households) as a result of the application of the latest

headship rate information.

The revised 2011-based headship rates have had the most significant impact upon the projected 7.5

rate of increase in single-person households and family households with no children. The

application of these revised headship rates to any previous population trend scenario will have

the effect of dampening the rate of household growth. This effect would continue if the trend in

rates were to be extrapolated to the 2030 scenario horizon.

Whilst these new headship rates have used updated 2011 Census statistics, it should be 7.6

recognised that they incorporate a time-period during which there has been unprecedented

economic change and uncertainty in the housing market. This will have had an impact upon the

rates of household formation recorded in the 2011 Census and applied in the 2011-2021

headship rate trends.

New population evidence

At the end of April 2013, ONS released its revised mid-year population estimates for 2002-2010, 7.7

providing consistency in the components of change (births, deaths, internal migration and

international migration) between the 2001 and 2011 Censuses. In conjunction with the new

2011-based household headship rate information, South Worcestershire might give

consideration to these new data and update its demographic trend projections where

appropriate to assess the impact of this new evidence upon growth trajectories.

46

August 2013

Supplied Data

The SWDP scenario data presented in this report are included in the accompanying Excel work-7.8

book. The five work-sheets within this work-book contain the following data:

Sheet 1: Total population for Malvern Hills, the WWA, Wychavon, Worcester City and South

Worcestershire as a whole (total of the WWA and the districts of Malvern Hills and

Wychavon excluding the WWA urban extension zones) disaggregated by sex and five-

year age group, in 5-year increments between 2001 and 2030.

Sheet 2: Components of natural change and migration for each year from 2011/12 to 2029/30

for each of the four geographies.

Sheet 3: Total number of households by household type, total number of dwellings and total

private household population in 5-year increments between 2001 and 2030 for each

of the four geographies.

Sheet 4: The size of the labour force disaggregated by sex and five-year age group and total

number of jobs in 5-year increments between 2001 and 2030 for each of the four

geographies.

Sheet 5: Summary of demographic change.

47

August 2013

References

DCLG (2012a). National Planning Policy Framework.

http://www.communities.gov.uk/documents/planningandbuilding/pdf/2116950.pdf.

ONS (2012). National Population Projections 2010-based Statistical Bulletin: assumptions

underlying the 2010-based projections. http://ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/npp/national-population-

projections/2010-based-projections/stb-2010-based-npp-principal-and-key-variants.html#tab-

Assumptions-underlying-the-2010-based-projections.

NLP (2012) South Worcestershire Development Plan, Housing Requirements Update. Report

produced on behalf of Miller Strategic Land, September 2012

Pegasus Group (2013) Chelmer Demographic and Housing Review Paper. South Worcestershire

PSL Research (2013) Housing Requirements in South Worcestershire: A review of the SWDP

Proposed Submission Document and the supporting evidence base

http://www.communities.gov.uk/documents/planningandbuilding/pdf/2116950.pdf

http://ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/npp/national-population-projections/2010-based-projections/stb-2010-based-npp-principal-and-key-variants.html#tab-Assumptions-underlying-the-2010-based-projections



48

August 2013

Glossary

Abbreviation Definition

DCLG Department for Communities and Local Government

LGA Local Government Association

ONS Office for National Statistics

SHMA Strategic Housing Market Assessment

SWDP South Worcestershire Development Plan

WWA Wider Worcester Area

49

August 2013

Edge Analytics

Edge Analytics provides expertise in geographical modelling and research with a specialism in

scenario forecasting. This expertise is based upon 20 years’ experience in the application of

modelling methods to support investment, planning and policy development in the public and

private sector, both in the UK and internationally.

Edge Analytics is contracted by the Local Government Association (LGA) to support and develop

the POPGROUP suite of forecasting models used by over 100 local planners across the UK. During

2010-12, Edge Analytics has successfully developed POPGROUP to be the ‘industry standard’ for

demographic analysis and forecasting in the UK. On-site training, a telephone and email help-line

plus a wide range of data and methodological guidelines are provided by Edge Analytics to ensure

expert support for planners and analysts engaged in the development of a variety of forecasts.

Edge Analytics has been contracted by a number of local authorities to deliver forecasts to

support service planning. These forecasts have been developed at a variety of geographical levels

(region, local authority, housing market areas, flood-risk areas, wards, LSOA, Output Area) and

include estimates on population, households & housing, employment & labour force.

With its specialist expertise in demographic forecasting, Edge Analytics has delivered

demographic analysis, estimates and forecasts to planners and policy makers across the UK. This

has included the following organisations:

Bradford Council

Buckinghamshire Council

Calderdale Council

Cardiff Council

Carmarthenshire Council

Cornwall Council

Derby City & Derbyshire Councils

Essex County Council

Herefordshire Council

Kent County Council

Leeds City Council

Lincolnshire District Councils

Liverpool City Council

Northumberland Unitary Authority

North Northamptonshire Councils

North Yorkshire District Councils

Nottingham & Nottinghamshire Councils

South West Councils

Stoke Council

West Northamptonshire Councils

Wiltshire Council

Worcestershire District Councils

50

August 2013

In addition to these, Edge Analytics has provided scrutiny, methodological advice, technical

support and guidance to demographic analysts and planners across the UK, in their own use and

application of population, pupil, household and labour force forecasting methods. A range of

other projects have been completed which have focused on demographic change, estimation

methods and the implication for planning and policy development:

Greater London Authority: Estimating London’s new migrant population

Yorkshire Futures: Ethnic population projections for local authorities in Y&H

Herefordshire Council: Review of population and pupil projections for local schools

Yorkshire & Humber Assembly: Review of migration estimates and projections

States of Jersey: Expert advisor to Population Policy Scrutiny Panel

One North East: Regional Demographic Model - a review and evaluation

UK Statistics Authority: Review of literature and research on migration estimation

ONS: Member of Expert Panel on Migration Statistics Improvement Programme

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