Spain’s Emission Projection Project: Agriculture

Spain’s Emission Projection Project: Agriculture

Julio Lumbreras

Rafael Borge

Authors:

Ministry of Environment Technical University of Madrid

IntroductionIntroduction

- To obtain emission projections for the period 2001-2020

- Pollutants considered:

- Geneva Convention

- Kyoto Protocol

Targets of the work

- To determine possible future scenarios

- To estimate the efficiency of the adopted measures in each scenario

- To evaluate the fulfilment of the Directives and the Protocols

- Cost-Benefit analysis

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Projection Methodology

- According to the EEA and EPA methodological framework

- The projections are evaluated on country yearly base (assessment

for each SNAP activity)

Considerations:

- Technological

- Socioeconomic

- Statistical

- Legislative

Hypothesis:

- Activity rate

- Emission factors

- Emission trends

= SCENARIO

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Types of scenarios

- In accordance with the CAFE criteria, the scenarios are divided into

three general groups or types:

Baseline: taking into account the past

emission trend exclusively

Business As Usual (BAU): the

more likely situation of air emissions

considering approved legislation and

adopted plans, measures and policies.

Target: the environmental objectives

are reached through additional

measures (e.g. good practices,

technical improvements, further

policies, etc.).

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SCENARIOS

Baseline

BAU

SCENARIOS

Baseline

BAU

Emission data (Inventory)

Socioeconomic data

Sectoral studies

Legislation

Technological aspects

Basis information

- Rate activity trend (A)

- Emission factor trend (FE)

- Emission trend (E)

- Control Factor (FC) and Growth Factor (G)

Hypothesis

Method for calculation

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Evaluated

emissions

Reached?Results

Definition of a T

arget scenario

YES NOCONCLUSIONSCONCLUSIONS

Specific methodology for the activity projection:

Kyoto Protocol

NEC

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Integration criteria

- ‘Macroscenarios’ to achieve a coherent cohesion

Projection evaluation

VA = activity rate Suitability criteria

Relations and implications

Linked activities

SNAP 1SNAP 2

SNAP ...

VA 1VA 2

Hypothesis harmonization

Proj 1Proj 2

Proj ...

Macro scenario

Σ Proj

- Software: EmiPro 1.0

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SNAP 10- AGRICULTURE SNAP 10- AGRICULTURE

Same methodology for the

emission evaluation as the

one used for the Spanish

National Inventory

Scheme of the presentation:

- Base information

- Main problems during the projection

Inventory assessmentRaw information Projection

Doubts

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SNAP 10.01- Cultures with fertilisers except animal manure SNAP 10.01- Cultures with fertilisers except animal manure

Base information:

- Climate and land characteristics

- Amount and type of fertiliser applied

- Cultivated surface area

- Crop species

- Production data (harvested product)

Problems:

- Projecting the surface area cultivated and its efficiency

- Evaluating the future trend of some types of

fertilisers and the possible alternatives

- Projecting the amount of the culture waste

- Is it worth to use such a elaborated methodology for

N2O emission assessment?

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SNAP 10.04- Enteric fermentation SNAP 10.04- Enteric fermentation

Base information:

- Number of heads of the

animal population for the different

species and categories

considered (Agriculture Ministry)

- Secondary emission factors

(they include the specific

methodology for each species

and category (Tier 2 approach,

IPCC)

Problems:

- Future changes in assessing the gross energy required

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SNAP 10.05- Manure management regarding organic compounds

SNAP 10.05- Manure management regarding organic compounds

Base information:

- Number of heads of each species

- Average annual temperature

- Average daily amount of volatile

excrement solids

- Potential methane emission factor

- Distribution of the manure management systems (MMS)

Problems:

- Evaluating the future trend of MMS

distribution

- Knowing the evolution of the pasture

percentage for each type of animal

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THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTIONTHANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION

THE END