spatial population dynamics of brown bears in scandinavia and finland jonna katajisto metapopulation...
Post on 19-Dec-2015
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Spatial population dynamics of brown bears in Scandinavia and
Finland
Jonna Katajisto
Metapopulation Research Group
Why?
– MSc thesis for Scandinavian Brown Bear Project
– To more methodological direction
– Fragmentation and poaching main threats of bear populations
– ”Bears threat to human populations”
Aims and means
– Main processes and mechanisms determining population dynamics?
– How affected by spatial and temporal patterns of landscape?
Spatially explicit population models
Specific issues
– Viability of bear populations under current and future management plans
– Effects of landscape structure on dispersal and population expansion
– Effects of harvesting
– Human conflicts
Outline
– Linking landscape patterns to population dynamics
– Brown bear data
– Modelling challenges
Landscape
- succession- human land use
LandscapeDynamics
Individual
Demographic processes
Spatial processes- movement
- habitat choice- interactions
Population densityDistribution
– Scandinavian Brown Bear Research Project since 1984
– To date ~300 bears
– At the moment ~100
– Most followed their lifetime
– Finnish Game and Fisheries Research Institute
My bears
Habitat quality and human influence
– CORINE land use data Maps for habitat quality and
human activity Habitat specific demography
Hunter-kills Harvesting with demographic
variability
– Intensive/daily/ weekly/ monthly locations
Detailed individual movement
– Dispersal from mother’s home range until establishment
Large scale approach
Dispersal
Spatially explicit individual-based population model
Modelling challenges
– Data quality:
– Almost infinite possibilities for modelling detailed behaviour
– Complex models difficult to test
1. Biological processes
2. Parameter values
3. Stochasticity
Excellent data
Answers to some questions Improving spatial modelling
Novel modelling