start presentation © prof. dr. françois e. cellier internal seminar: groups...

April 3, 2007Start Presentation© Prof. Dr. François E. Cellier

Internal Seminar: Groups Arbenz/Cellier/Gander/Hinterber

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Alliance for Global Sustainability



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Table of Contents

• Mathis Wackernagel: Global Footprint Network• Christian Azar: Turning the Tide• Dennis Meadows: Limits to Growth• The Spanish Pathway• Conclusions



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Disclaimer• This report contains some material taken from the

proceedings of the AGS Conference. Those slides are interspersed with material produced by me.

• Since the proceedings were only published in PDF format, all material taken from the proceedings has been included in pixel graphics, i.e. by capture and paste.

• The material pasted from other documents is clearly marked by hyperlinks.

• The typeset text is all mine.• Especially, since the material from the Spanish pathway was not

included in the proceedings, that material (or rather, the interpretation thereof) is all mine.

• Finally and most importantly, the conclusions presented on the last page of this document are not official conclusions reached by the conference, but rather, they are my personal conclusions, for which I carry sole responsibility.



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Global Footprint NetworkMathis Wackernagel



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Cuba



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The Good News …

• It takes relatively little additional resources to dramatically increase the quality of life of the poor nations.



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Cuba



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Why is the European Gradient Steeper?

• It is steeper, because we live more wastefully.• The poor nations use their few resources in an

almost optimal fashion. They cannot afford to waste anything.

• We don’t think much about how we might use our resources more efficiently.

We heat our houses to high temperature values, while keeping the windows open.

We buy food that we don’t need. We maintain secondary homes that we don’t need. …



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Cuba



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No Strings Attached• The U.S. and the United Arab Emirates consume simply

because they can, without increasing their quality of life any further.

• It is human nature to think first about themselves individually, and only later about the species as a whole.

• Humans are constantly in competition with each other. They increase their feeling of “self-worth” by taking something away from another human being.

• Example: Easter Islands.• If we want to survive as a species, while keeping up a

decent quality of life, we must learn to become …… not “Berliners,” but “Cubans.”



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The Bad News …• Becoming “Cubans” won’t happen on its own.• If the Cubans were given a choice, they would

gladly vote to become the 51st State in the Union … if only they could drive around in these sinfully gorgeous SUVs, heat their homes in the winter to 24oC, while cooling them down in the summer to 18oC.

• We achieve the transition either by regulations … or the planet will achieve it for us, probably in ways that we won’t like a bit.



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More Bad News …• Every species outgrows its resources over time.• A population of lab rats will stop reproducing only

when there is no longer enough food for all of them.

• Populations are naturally controlled by hunger and disease, not by living standard.

• Whereas humans individually (on a local scale) are capable of behaving in a civilized way and helping each other, there has been no sign so far that humanity, as a species (on a global scale), behaves any differently from lab rats.



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Footprint vs. Biocapacity



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Global Ecological Balance Sheet(in global hectares/person, 2003 data)



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Turning the TideChristian Azar



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CO2 EmissionsEurope (with Kyoto) and U.S. (without Kyoto)



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Words and Deeds• Although the EU signed the Kyoto agreement

whereas the U.S. did not, their increase in CO2 emissions over time is approximately the same.

• Switzerland signed the Kyoto agreement.• What has Switzerland done since then to actually

curb CO2 emissions?• Absolutely nothing.• We talk a lot … but the CO2 emissions won’t go

away by talk alone.• As I shall demonstrate, relying on market forces

won’t make them go away either.



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CO2 Concentration and Temperature



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Ice Ages and Temperature



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Ice Ages and Temperature II



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Mechanisms for Temperature Changes• The climate seems to exhibit something like a bi-stable

behavior with long ice ages (around 100.000 years) interrupted by short interglacial periods (around 10.000 years).

• This behavior can only be explained by positive feedback loops and nonlinearities.

• We understand some of the positive feedback loops.• We have no clear understanding of what brings the next

ice age about (although we have some ideas about it).• We have no understanding whatsoever as to what

mechanisms end an ice age.



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Global Warming• A predicted global warming of 3-5 degrees Centigrade

within the next 100 years is colossal.• The difference between current global annual temperature

averages and ice ages averages is only 4oC.• If the average temperature rises by another 4oC above

current values, the arctic icecap will melt.• The melting of the icecap will make the oceans less salty.• This could derail the golf stream and bring the next ice age

about.• Since we don’t really understand yet what we are doing

… it might be a good idea not to do it.



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Available Options• Using less energy (e.g. by thermally

insulating the houses better) is by far the cheapest, i.e., the most cost-effective option.

• Using other forms of energy is something that we should do, but it won’t solve the problem in the short run.

• Local decentralized solutions are more easily realizable than global centralized solutions, although the latter may be more cost-effective.

• Carbon capture is a good technology for the future for global CO2 management.



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Can the Problem be Solved?



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Limits to GrowthDennis Meadows



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Overview of his Comments



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Main Contributions



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Three Types of Policies



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Energy Gap



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“Easy” Problems



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“Difficult” Problems



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“Difficult” Problems Become “Easy” with Greater Time Horizon



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Why are Many Problems “Difficult”?

• Let me concretize the nature of “difficult” problems by means of a simple optimization study using Forrester’s world model.

• I chose that model over Meadows’ newer world model, because Forrester published his full model in his book World Dynamics, whereas Meadows published only the results of his studies in his book Limits to Growth.

• The exercise serves to demonstrate why market forces alone are likely to drive us down the path of overshoot and collapse, rather than down the path of a sustainable future.



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World Model



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Simulation Results I



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Simulation Results II

The model shows nicely the limits to growth. The population peaks at about the year 2020 with a little over 5 billion people.

It turns out that, as the natural resources shrink to a level below approximately 5·1011, this generates a strong damping effect on the population.



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1st Modification

• Forrester thus proposed to reduce the usage of the natural resources by a factor of 4, starting with the year 1970.

• This may be just as well. The effect of this modification is approximately the same as saying that more resources are available than anticipated. This is indeed true.

• Now, the resource exhaustion won’t be effective as a damping factor any longer.



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Program Modification I• As we are now modifying a

parameter, NRUN, this former parameter had now to become a variable.

(I had to extend a few of the function domains to prevent the assert clauses in the Piecewise function from killing the simulation.)

I could have modified the multiplier instead, but the nonlinear function was optically more appealing to me.



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Simulation Results III

Collapse



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Optimization• We now want to optimize the consumption of

natural resources after the year 1970.• To this end, we shall need a performance index.

What is good, is a high value of the minimal quality of life after the year 2000 (optimizing the past doesn’t make much sense). What is bad, is a die-off of the population.

• Accordingly, we modify the program once more. This is all done in the equation window.



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Program Modification II



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Simulation Results IV

• The first two simulations are plagued by massive die-off. The others are fine.

• Yet, in the short run, those solutions that will give us bad performance (die-off) exhibit the best performance.

NRUN2 = 0.25 NRUN2 = 0.5 NRUN2 = 0.75 NRUN2 = 1.0 NRUN2 = 1.5



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Discussion• The example shows what Dennis Meadows calls a

“difficult” problem.

• Markets forces focus on short-term optimization. Industrial decision makers hardly ever look beyond 2 years.

• Consequently, they will most likely favor a solution that will lead to a massive die-off further down the road (après moi le déluge!).

• Easter Islands all over again ...

• According to Dennis Meadows, most problems related to sustainability issues are “difficult” problems.



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The Spanish Pathway

• On Wednesday afternoon, after the international AGS meeting had ended, a separate Spanish AGS meeting was held (in Spanish).

• I participated in that meeting also, as I was interested in hearing the Spanish viewpoint.



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The Facts• Between 1990 and 2004, the Spanish CO2 emissions

increased by 46%.• 35% of all Spanish CO2 emissions are attributed to the

building industry.• In the same time frame, the construction of new primary

homes grew by 30%. The construction of new secondary homes grew by 52%.

• For this reason, the building industry is viewed as the single most important culprit in causing the additional CO2 emissions.

• Assuming a life span of 50 years for a building, the CO2 emissions produced in constructing that building contribute roughly 50% to the overall CO2 emissions generated over the entire life span of the building.



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The Proposed Solution

• The Spanish AGS researchers invited CEOs of Spanish companies related to the building industry to a meeting to discuss, how the CO2 emissions caused by the building industry may be curbed.

• If these emissions could be significantly reduced, the overall emissions would decrease as well. At least, that was the theory.



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Problems

• The problem with this approach is that the different sectors of the industry are strongly interlinked.

• The building industry doesn’t necessarily require much fossil fuels … they require a lot of energy.

• If electricity becomes cheaper, they’ll switch over to using electricity, thereby making the building industry look much “cleaner” … while leaving it up to the power companies to decide how they are going to produce the additional electricity that is now being required.

• The power companies will most likely meet the requirements … by burning more fossil fuels.



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Analyzing the Observations

• In the time span between 1990 and 2004, the Spanish stock market grew by roughly 46%.

• Hence the average person had 46% more money to spend, or rather reinvest.

• The people need to reinvest their money somehow. Either they invest it themselves (e.g. by constructing a weekend home), or they give it to a bank to invest it for them (e.g. by lending money to a home builder).

• The investment consumes roughly 46% additional energy.• The production of that additional energy is accompanied

by roughly 46% additional CO2 emissions.



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Conclusions• If we want to reduce the CO2 emissions, we have no choice

but to use less energy, at least in the short run.• The only meaningful way to accomplish this is by adding a

massive CO2 removal tax on the use of fossils fuels.• This tax will slow down the economy. It will make us all

poorer in the short run (a “difficult problem” according to Dennis Meadows), but it will accomplish the goal of reducing CO2 emissions.

• The tax will make alternate energy sources (like solar power plants) more attractive, thereby increasing the rate of their introduction.

• The tax will also make us more conscious of the indirect cost of burning fossil fuels. Hence each of us is more likely to help our common goal by using less energy.

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poor nations