state of the countryside update: housing demand and supply · 5 state of the countryside update:...

State of the countryside update:Housing demand and supply

The Commission for Rural Communities acts as the advocate for England’s rural communities, as an expert adviser to government, and as a watchdog to ensure that government actions, policies and programmes recognise and respond effectively to rural needs, with a particular focus on disadvantage.

It has three key functions:

Rural advocate:the voice for rural people, businesses and communities

Expert adviser:giving evidence-based, objective advice to government and others

Independent watchdog:monitoring, reporting on and seeking to mainstream rural into the delivery of policies nationally, regionally and locally

State of the countryside updatesOur State of the countryside report provides a broad picture of social, economic and environmental conditions and change across rural England.

In addition to the full report, we have recognised the need for more detailed topic-focused bulletins, produced following the release of new data and information.

These State of the countryside updates allow us to monitor key national rural indicators and to track change over time. The updates form one way in which we fulfil our role as an independent watchdog.

As with our broader State of the countryside reporting, we hope that each update will assist in increasing the understanding of rural issues and will generate informed and active debate about the challenges facing rural England.

This, and our other updates, are available via our website www.ruralcommunities.gov.uk

The updates that we have completed to date are:

• Stateofthecountrysideupdate1 – Population and migration

• Stateofthecountrysideupdate2 – Working age benefit claimants in rural England 2000-2006

• Stateofthecountrysideupdate3 – Cash purchases of housing stock

• Stateofthecountrysideupdate4 – Pension credit take-up in rural areas

• Stateofthecountrysideupdate5 – Rural analysis of the Index of Multiple Deprivation 2007

• Stateofthecountrysideupdate6 – Uplands

• Stateofthecountrysideupdate7 – Financial Inclusion

State of the countryside update: Housing demand and supply4

Contents

Keyfindings 5

1 Introduction 6

2 Householdchange 7

3 Housingsupply 15

4 Summaryoffindings 29

5 Discussion 31

AnnexOne 33


Key findings

• Ouranalysisshowsthatbetween2006and2031demandfornewhousing as a result of projected household change will grow at a greater rate in rural districts than in urban districts. Urban districts will growby27%overthatperiodwhilstruraldistrictswillgrowby35%.

• Onaveragebetween2006and2031therewillbe356,000new households added every five years in predominantly rural districts.

• Anynewneedanddemandforhousingwillbeinadditiontoexisting unmet need and demand. In predominantly rural districts households waitingforlocalauthorityhousingaccountforsixinevery100 households, one in ten in predominantly urban districts and eight in every100nationally.

• Onaveragebetween2000and200821%ofnewbuildpropertiessold were in rural areas.

• Onaveragebetween2002and2008therehavebeensalesof4.9new buildpropertiesper1,000mid-2001householdspacesinruralareas comparedwith4.6inurbanareas.

• Bycomparinganalysisofsupplyatdistrictlevelwithanalysisatspatial scales below district level our analysis provides further evidence that housing supply is not evenly distributed within rural districts and tends to be concentrated in larger settlements.

• Markedproportionsofdwellingsinruraldistrictsareregisteredas secondhomes.Onaveragebetween2006/07and2008/09an additional1,500dwellingshavebeenregisteredassecondhomesin predominantly rural districts every year.

• Between2007and2008thenumberofprivatelyowneddwellingsleft vacantincreasedby9.3%inruraldistrictsand2.8%inurbandistricts.

• Inpredominantlyruraldistrictstheannualsupplyofadditional affordablehousinghasincreasedby49%between2004/05and 2008/09,from7,000to12,800.

• In2009/1032%ofadditionalaffordablehousingforthemostrural districtsisproposedforsettlementssmallerthan3,000people.

• Between2004/05and2008/09theproportionofalladditionalsocial rented dwellings built in predominantly rural districts has increased from 22% to 26%.


Introduction

In our fifth State of the countryside update we described how cash purchases of properties in rural areas were playing a part in increasing the pressure on the inelastic rural housing market, contributing to problems of house price affordability and making it increasingly difficulty for households to find housing in their local area. With the latest household projections showing sustained future growth in the number of rural households our eighth State of the countryside update takes an updated look at the pressures within the rural housing market by outlining the evidence for the future trends in demand for housing in rural areas and the current trends in housing supply.

Our analysis of Land Registry data on residential property transactions involving newly built properties shows that the levels of annual supply of market housing in rural areas over the past decade will only partially meet the increasing annual demand for housing suggested by data on household projections. However, being able to find a house to buy is only part of the problem. Many rural households already find that the rural housing market fails to meet their housing needs and increasing numbers of households will therefore put further reliance for the supply of their housing on to the social sector.

This State of the countryside update provides evidence of the extent to which demand and need for housing in rural areas is being met with sufficient supply in three main sections:

1. Evidenceofhousingdemandarisingfromthemostrecenthousehold projections and unmet housing need from the numbers of homeless households, households in temporary accommodation and households on the waiting list for local authority housing;

2. Evidence of the supply of market housing from residential property transactions involving newly built properties, additional affordable housing and changes in the numbers of second homes and vacant dwellings; and

3. Evidenceofthesupplyofsocialsectorhousingfromadditionalsocial rented housing.

Defininingandclassifyingruralareas

We have used the two standard classifications of rural and urban areas for this State of the countryside update. The Office of National Statistics’ (ONS)definitionofsmallareasdefinessettlementsofover10,000peopleas ‘urban’, and separates ‘rural’ settlements into three categories: ‘town and fringe’, ‘villages’, or ‘hamlets and isolated dwellings’. In addition, settlements are also defined as ‘sparse’ or ‘less sparse’. The Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs’ (Defra) rural and urban classification of Local Authority Districts and Unitary Authorities classifies districtsaseither‘Predominantlyrural’(Rural80andRural50districtscombined), ‘Significantly rural’, or ‘Predominantly urban’ (Other urban, Large urban and Major urban districts combined). Further details of these two rural and urban classifications can be found in annex one.

1


Householdchange

Population growth is the main driver of household growth, accounting for nearly three-quarters of the increase in households between 2006 and 20311, with changes in population age structure and changes in the pattern of household type affecting household change to a lesser extent. As will be shown, household change is uneven between rural and urban areas meaning that demand for existing and new housing will also differ between rural and urban areas.

Householdprojections

When district level projections are aggregated using the rural and urban classification of Local Authority Districts and Unitary Authorities the projected rate of growth in household numbers is greatest in the most ruralareas(figure1).By2031householdsinthemostruraldistrictsareprojectedtoincreaseby37%on2006levels.ThisisinthecontextofhouseholdgrowthforthewholeofEnglandof29%forthesameperiod.

Figure2showsthatnationallytherewillbeanaverageof1.3millionhouseholdscreatedeveryfiveyearsbetween2006and2031;356,000inpredominantly rural districts and 722,000 in predominantly urban districts. The most rural districts will increase by an estimated average of 189,000householdseveryfiveyears.Theselevelsofhouseholdgrowthwouldrequireanannualsupplyofhousingintheregionof250,000dwellings nationally and 70,000 in rural districts. However, this does not take into account the need to replace ageing stock, losses to supply through properties lying vacant or being used as second homes, and most importantly, before the existing backlog of unmet need is tackled.

2

1 CLG,2008.HouseholdProjectionsto2031,England. The household projections are produced by applying projected household formation rates to the population projections published by the Office for National Statistics. The assumptions underlying national household and population projections are demographic trend based. They are not forecasts. They do not attempt to predict the impact that future government policies, changing economic circumstances or other factors might have on demographic behaviour. They provide the household levels and structures that would result if the assumptions based on previous demographic trends in the population and household formation rates were to be realised in practice.

Figure1Projectedhouseholdestimates,2006to2031(National)

Area classification 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2006-31 % change

Rural80 2,553,000 2,735,000 2,932,000 3,131,000 3,321,000 3,497,000 37.0%

Rural50 2,531,000 2,689,000 2,868,000 3,048,000 3,212,000 3,367,000 33.0%

Significant rural 2,808,000 2,984,000 3,183,000 3,372,000 3,553,000 3,711,000 32.2%

Other urban 2,932,000 3,113,000 3,296,000 3,478,000 3,644,000 3,799,000 29.6%

Large urban 3,194,000 3,356,000 3,540,000 3,716,000 3,882,000 4,030,000 26.2%

Major urban 7,500,000 7,869,000 8,286,000 8,687,000 9,064,000 9,407,000 25.4%

Predominantly rural 5,084,000 5,424,000 5,800,000 6,179,000 6,533,000 6,864,000 35.0%

Significantly rural 2,808,000 2,984,000 3,183,000 3,372,000 3,553,000 3,711,000 32.2%

Predominantly urban 13,626,000 14,338,000 15,122,000 15,881,000 16,590,000 17,236,000 26.5%

England 21,518,000 22,746,000 24,105,000 25,432,000 26,676,000 27,811,000 29.2%

Source:CLG,2009.Householdestimatesandprojectionsbydistrict,England,1981-2031.


ShowngraphicallybyindividualLocalAuthorityDistrict(figure3onpage9),urbanconurbationsshowthelowestratesofprojectedhouseholdgrowth whilst the highest rates of growth are in districts surrounding The Wash, those in central and north eastern Yorkshire and The Humber region as well as large parts of the South West region, particularly Dorset, Devon and Cornwall.

The varying degree of projected household change for rural and urban districts can be further analysed by comparing the distribution of districts ranked by percentage change in households. Under an even distribution 25%ofdistrictswouldbeexpectedineachquartile.Figure4showsthedistributionofdistrictsbyclassificationandbyquartile.The1stquartilerepresentsdistrictswiththelowest25%ofprojectedhouseholdchangebetween2006and2031andthe4thquartilerepresentsthosedistrictswiththehighest25%ofprojectedhouseholdchange.However,40%ofpredominantly rural districts are projected to experience the greatest householdchange,comparedtojust14%ofpredominantlyurbandistricts, showing that proportionately more rural areas will experience the highest rates of household growth.

Figure2Projectedadditionalhouseholds,2006to2031(National)

Area classification 2006 mid-year estimate

2006-11 2011-16 2016-21 2021-26 2026-31 Average additional

households

Rural80 2,553,000 182,000 197,000 199,000 190,000 176,000 188,800

Rural50 2,531,000 158,000 179,000 180,000 164,000 155,000 167,200

Significant rural 2,808,000 176,000 199,000 189,000 181,000 158,000 180,600

Other urban 2,932,000 181,000 183,000 182,000 166,000 155,000 173,400

Large urban 3,194,000 162,000 184,000 176,000 166,000 148,000 167,200

Major urban 7,500,000 369,000 417,000 401,000 377,000 343,000 381,400

Predominantly rural 5,084,000 340,000 376,000 379,000 354,000 331,000 356,000

Significantly rural 2,808,000 176,000 199,000 189,000 181,000 158,000 180,600

Predominantly urban 13,626,000 712,000 784,000 759,000 709,000 646,000 722,000

England 21,518,000 1,228,000 1,359,000 1,327,000 1,244,000 1,135,000 1,258,600


Figure4Percentage of Local Authority Districts by rural and urban classification in each quartile of percentage change in households, 2006-31

Quartile Predominantly rural Significant rural Predominantly urban England

Districts % Districts % Districts % Districts %

1st(Leastchange) 19 15% 7 13% 63 36% 89 25%

2nd 20 16% 12 23% 56 32% 88 25%

3rd 36 29% 19 36% 33 19% 88 25%

4th(Greatestchange) 50 40% 15 28% 24 14% 89 25%

Total 125 100% 53 100% 176 100% 354 100%



Figure3Householdprojections,2006to2031


Percentage change

0.0–19.9

20.0–25.9

26.0–31.9

32.0–38.9

39.0–63.8

Boundaries


Housingdemandandhousingneed

The demand for housing is not uniform between households as the circumstances under which households demand housing will differ. Broadly,totalhousingdemandcanbedividedintohousingdemandandhousing need where housing demand suggests an expression of free will synonymous with the ability to access housing through the open market. The remaining unmet demand for housing, demand not met by the market, is categorised as housing need and falls within the social sector2.

Previously published works have estimated housing need and demand in both rural areas and England generally, and this update does not seek to add a new estimate. The 2006 CRC report ‘Calculating Housing Needs in Rural England’, the 2006 Defra report ‘The Extent and Impacts of Rural HousingNeed’andthe2008CambridgeCentreforHousingandPlanning Research (CCHPR) report ‘Homes for the future – A new analysis of housing need and demand in England’ provide sufficient analysis and research evidence for estimated need and demand. Instead, the focus on demand and need in this section of the update aims to provide a more informed context in which to assess housing supply.

Demandformarketandsocialsectorhousing

The evidence presented in this report shows that both demand and need for housing are rising. Proportions of this demand will be for market sector housing and social sector housing3. Market sector housing includes owner occupiers and private rental tenants not receiving HousingBenefit.Thesocialsectorincludespropertiesrentedbylocalauthorities and Registered Social Landlors (RSLs), tenants of private rental propertieswhoreceiveHousingBenefit,owneroccupierswhohavepurchasedtheirpropertythroughRight-to-Buyandaffordablehousing.Affordable housing is also described as intermediate housing as it attempts to meet the needs of those who may not fit wholly within either the market or social sector. For the purposes of this update affordable housing will be considered as part of the social housing sector.

Unmetdemandandneed

Any new demand and need as a result of a growth in household numbers will be in addition to the existing unmet demand or need for housing. Unmet demand manifests itself in more subtle ways than unmet need and is therefore difficult to analyse and quantify. Problems of poor house price affordability and restricted choice of local housing are examples of unmet demand. Unmet need is easier to identify by analysing the number of homeless households, households in temporary accommodation and households on local authority housing waiting lists.

Homelesshouseholds

InEnglandin2008/09therewereapproximately50,000homelesshouseholds(figure5),58%fewerthanin2002/03,andthreequartersofthenationaltotalwerefrompredominantlyurbandistricts.Since2003/04

2 CRC, 2006. Calculationg Housing Needs in Rural England.

3 Cambridge Centre for Housing and Planning Research,2008.Homesforthefuture–Anewanalysis of housing need and demand in England.


the numbers of homeless households have decreased in all types of district.Inpredominantlyruraldistrictsin2008/09the7,622homelesshouseholdsrepresented16householdsper10,000mid-2002totalhouseholds (figure 6).

Figure5Homelesshouseholds,2002/03to2008/09(National)

Area classification 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09

Rural80 8,759 8,883 8,384 6,628 5,123 4,650 3,731

Rural50 10,156 10,896 10,370 7,768 5,718 4,865 3,891

Significant rural 10,962 11,900 10,237 7,912 6,416 5,791 4,728

Other urban 16,846 16,743 15,771 12,066 9,347 8,140 6,362

Large urban 16,781 19,690 18,228 12,669 10,184 8,089 7,602

Major urban 59,572 61,764 53,796 34,365 32,315 27,522 25,742

Predominantly rural 18,915 19,779 18,754 14,396 10,841 9,515 7,622

Significantly rural 10,962 11,900 10,237 7,912 6,416 5,791 4,728

Predominantly urban 93,199 98,197 87,795 59,100 51,846 43,751 39,706

England 123,076 129,876 116,786 81,408 69,103 59,057 52,056

Source:CLG,2009.Localauthorities’actionunderthehomelessnessprovisionsoftheHousingActs:Financialyear2002/03to2008/09.

60

10

20

30

40

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80

90

2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08

Year

2008/09 Hom

eles

s ho

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old

s p

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0,00

0 to

tal h

ouse

hold

s

Rural80

Rural50

Significant rural

Other urban

Large urban

Major urban

Figure6Homelesshouseholdsper10,000totalmid-2002households,2002/03to2008/09(National)

Source:CLG,2009.Localauthorities’actionunderthehomelessnessprovisionsoftheHousingActs:Financialyear2002/03to2008/09.CLG,2009.Householdestimatesandprojectionsbydistrict,England,1981-2031.

Year


60

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08

Year

2008/09

Hou

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Rural50

Significant rural

Other urban

Large urban

Major urban

Figure 8 Householdsintemporaryaccommodationper10,000totalmid-2002households,2002/03to2008/09(National)

Householdsintemporaryaccommodation

The numbers of households in temporary accommodation (figure 7) have seen similar decreases to those seen in homeless households over theperiod2002/03to2008/09.Inruraldistricts,householdsintemporaryaccommodationaccountforseveninevery10,000householdsascomparedto44inurbandistricts(figure8).Thisdifferenceisnotaltogether surprising as the majority of temporary accommodation is very likely to be located within the most urban districts.

Figure7Householdsintemporaryaccommodation,2002/03to2008/09(National)

Area classification 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09

Rural80 3,972 3,899 4,465 4,007 3,268 2,596 1,763

Rural50 4,497 4,276 4,637 3,746 3,358 2,459 1,735

Significant rural 5,307 4,611 5,154 4,500 3,546 2,930 2,173

Other urban 11,926 12,047 11,709 10,278 7,914 6,407 5,043

Large urban 6,113 6,222 6,240 5,493 4,686 3,877 2,946

Major urban 48,271 60,146 61,452 66,922 63,244 56,733 50,343

Predominantly rural 8,469 8,175 9,102 7,753 6,626 5,055 3,498

Significantly rural 5,307 4,611 5,154 4,500 3,546 2,930 2,173

Predominantly urban 66,310 78,415 79,401 82,693 75,844 67,017 58,332

England 80,086 91,201 93,657 94,946 86,016 75,002 64,003

Source:CLG,2009.Localauthorities’actionunderthehomelessnessprovisionsoftheHousingActs:Financialyear2002/03to2008/09.

Source:CLG,2009.Localauthorities’actionunderthehomelessnessprovisionsoftheHousingActs:Financialyear2002/03to2008/09.CLG,2009.Householdestimatesandprojectionsbydistrict,England,1981-2031.

Year


Householdsonlocalauthorityhousingwaitinglist

In contrast to homeless households and those in temporary accommodation the numbers of households waiting for local authority housing(figure9)arebothlargeandhaveincreasedoverthelastdecade. In predominantly rural districts households waiting for local authorityhousingaccountforsixinevery100households,oneinteninpredominantlyurbandistrictsandeightinevery100nationally.

Since 2002 households on waiting lists have increased markedly. Numbershaverisenby68%inruraldistrictsand80%inurbandistrictssince1997withthemajorityofthatincreaseoccuringinthelastsixyears(figure10).Onaverageeachyear,68,000householdshavebeenaddedtothehousingwaitinglistnationally,11,000inruralareasand52,000inurban areas.

Figure9Householdsonlocalauthorityhousingwaitinglists,1997to2008(National)

Area classification 1997-2002 average

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2008 per 1,000 mid-2006

households

Rural80 91,573 111,693 129,447 142,514 148,139 148,391 153,998 60.32

Rural50 99,990 113,661 128,020 143,643 151,600 161,191 161,508 63.81

Significant rural 108,742 115,618 126,409 141,888 161,259 156,716 159,464 56.79

Other urban 136,280 172,141 205,437 199,398 217,934 227,833 235,608 80.36

Large urban 202,543 223,352 239,373 275,597 285,699 313,038 332,800 104.20

Major urban 401,865 527,466 606,188 640,297 669,670 667,252 726,738 96.90

Predominantly rural 191,563 225,354 257,467 286,157 299,739 309,582 315,506 62.06

Significantly rural 108,742 115,618 126,409 141,888 161,259 156,716 159,464 56.79

Predominantly urban 740,688 922,959 1,050,998 1,115,292 1,173,303 1,208,123 1,295,146 95.05

England 1,040,992 1,263,931 1,434,874 1,543,337 1,634,301 1,674,421 1,770,116 82.26

Source:CLG,2009.Numbersofhouseholdsonlocalauthorities’housingwaitinglists,bydistrict: England1997-2008.CLG,2009.Householdestimatesandprojectionsbydistrict,England,1981-2031.


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100

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200

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Year

Ind

ex (

1997

= 1

00)

Rural80

Rural50

Significant rural

Other urban

Large urban

Major urban

Figure10Index of households on local authority waiting lists, 1997to2008(National)

Source:CLG,2009.Numbersofhouseholdsonlocalauthorities’housingwaitinglists,bydistrict:England1997-2008.

Year


Housingsupply

This section sets out evidence for the supply of private market housing, affordable housing and social rental housing provided by local authorities and Registered Social Landlords (RSLs). As with the section covering demand, the aim here is not to calculate the total supply of housing to rural areas. Instead, this section will provide evidence for the level of supply of housing in rural areas relative to demand and need and to the supply of housing to urban areas.

Housing supply can be expressed most simply as the provision of new housing less any housing stock lost through use as second homes or by lying vacant. Housing provision is made up of a combination of private and public new builds, the conversion of existing housing stock into smaller multiple units and through a change of use of existing buildings.

Currently available data evidence for housing supply is fragmented, matching the different facets of supply, and is scarce at a level of detail which enables analysis to determine the specific rural and urban context. In an attempt to combat this lack of clarity and detail in order to provide evidence for the supply of new market housing this update focusses on the Price Paid dataset from the Land Registry which is based on the registration of all residential property transactions undertaken in England4. One variable in this dataset differentiates between sales of existing and new build properties and, when combined with the location details of the sale, allows analysis to determinetheruralandurbancontextofthatsale.Bytakingsupplytobe the point at which a new property is sold rather than at the point of completion, the basis for much of the currently available housing supply data, the Price Paid dataset is an extensive and detailed source of evidence of the supply of new market housing.

3

4 The Price Paid dataset only includes properties sold at full market value and excludes shared ownership and right-to-buy purchases.


Marketsector–Newbuilds

Figure11showsthatinabsolutetermsnewbuildpropertiesareconcentrated in urban areas. Sparse hamlets and isolated dwellings account for a very small proportion of national new build properties, just 0.1%in2008.Onaveragebetween2000and200821%ofnewbuildproperties were built in rural areas.

Since 2002 sales of new builds in rural areas have been decreasing annuallyandasfigure12shows,salesin2008arebelowthelevelofsales in 2000. In contrast, sales of new builds in urban areas rose from 2000toapeakin2005sincewhensaleshavedecreasedatafasterratethan in rural areas.

Figure11Salesofnewbuildproperties,2000to2008(National)

Area definition 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2000-08 average

Less sparse

Hamlet and isolated dwellings

2,166 3,166 3,585 3,419 3,428 2,865 2,597 2,080 1,515 2,758

Village 5,994 8,223 8,887 8,496 7,276 6,523 6,052 4,545 3,283 6,587

Town and fringe 11,201 12,908 12,301 11,062 10,298 10,945 10,105 8,138 5,538 10,277

Urban>10K 60,607 78,565 83,661 87,162 85,883 91,233 83,187 68,400 49,612 76,479

Sparse


76 120 161 136 148 159 179 88 64 126

Village 392 458 573 487 528 422 310 329 172 408

Town and fringe 527 619 810 733 624 623 590 465 367 595

Urban>10K 207 267 286 282 300 149 156 158 89 210

Rural 20,356 25,494 26,317 24,333 22,302 21,537 19,833 15,645 10,939 20,751

Urban>10K 60,814 78,832 83,947 87,444 86,183 91,382 83,343 68,558 49,701 76,689

England 81,170 104,326 110,264 111,777 108,485 112,919 103,176 84,203 60,640 97,440

Source:HMLR,2009.PricePaid.


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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Year

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Urban>10K

Figure12Indexofnewbuildpropertysales,2000to2008(National)


When sales of new builds are seen proportionately to the total number of households in an area the difference between rural and urban areas overallislessmarked.Figure13comparesthenumberofnewbuildssoldannuallybetween2002and2008withthenumberofexistinghouseholdspacesin2001.Onaverageacrosstheperiodtherehavebeensalesof4.9newbuildpropertiesper1,000existinghouseholdspacesinruralareascomparedwith4.6inurbanareas.Between2002and2005therewereproportionatelymorenewbuildssoldinruralareasthan in urban areas. However, the year on year decline in sales of rural newbuildpropertiesseeninfigures11and12havebroughtthetwoclosertogetherandsince2005ruralareashaveseenproportionatelyfewer sales of new build properties than urban areas.

Year


Figure13Salesofnewbuildpropertiesper1,0002001householdspaces,2002-08(National)

Area definition 2001 household

spaces

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2002-08 average

Less sparse


561,922 6.4 6.1 6.1 5.1 4.6 3.7 2.7 5.0

Village 1,389,548 6.4 6.1 5.2 4.7 4.4 3.3 2.4 4.6

Town and fringe 1,843,259 6.7 6.0 5.6 5.9 5.5 4.4 3.0 5.3

Urban>10K 17,123,724 4.9 5.1 5.0 5.3 4.9 4.0 2.9 4.6

Sparse


67,866 2.4 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.6 1.3 0.9 2.0

Village 120,805 4.7 4.0 4.4 3.5 2.6 2.7 1.4 3.3

Town and fringe 107,251 7.6 6.8 5.8 5.8 5.5 4.3 3.4 5.6

Urban>10K 48,450 5.9 5.8 6.2 3.1 3.2 3.3 1.8 4.2

Rural 4,090,651 6.4 5.9 5.5 5.3 4.8 3.8 2.7 4.9

Urban>10K 17,172,174 4.9 5.1 5.0 5.3 4.9 4.0 2.9 4.6

England 21,262,825 5.2 5.3 5.1 5.3 4.9 4.0 2.9 4.6

Source:HMLR,2009.PricePaid.ONS,2001.Census.


Area classification 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2000-08 average

annual new builds

Rural80 12,473 16,245 17,288 15,708 15,053 14,150 13,206 10,112 6,874 13,457

Rural50 12,255 15,160 15,346 15,237 13,751 14,221 12,978 10,021 8,171 13,016

Significant rural 13,677 17,291 17,376 16,639 16,237 16,580 14,975 12,454 8,001 14,803

Other urban 11,932 15,722 15,724 17,379 15,800 18,435 16,654 14,343 10,831 15,202

Large urban 8,767 11,832 14,488 14,387 13,761 14,312 13,056 10,996 7,995 12,177

Major urban 22,066 28,076 30,042 32,427 33,883 35,221 32,307 26,277 18,768 28,785

Predominantly rural 24,728 31,405 32,634 30,945 28,804 28,371 26,184 20,133 15,045 26,472

Significantly rural 13,677 17,291 17,376 16,639 16,237 16,580 14,975 12,454 8,001 14,803

Predominantly urban 42,765 55,630 60,254 64,193 63,444 67,968 62,017 51,616 37,594 56,165

England 81,170 104,326 110,264 111,777 108,485 112,919 103,176 84,203 60,640 97,440



Figure11showsthenumbersofnewbuildpropertiesusingtheOfficeofNational Statistics’ rural and urban definition of small areas. The same figures can be shown aggregated using Defra’s rural and urban classification of Local Authority Districts and Unitary Authorities (figure 14).Thecomparisonbetweenthetwofiguressuggeststhatthesupplyofmarket housing tends not to be evenly distributed within rural districts. Taking2008asanexample,15,000newbuildsweresoldinpredominantlyruraldistrictsaccordingtofigure14.However,usingthemoredetailedruralandurbandefinitioninfigure11,ruralareasaccountedforonly11,000newbuilds.Whilstthisisnotadirectcomparison it highlights the potential overstatement of rural housing supply when using figures at Local Authority District and Unitary Authority level. It is also a useful reminder that housing supply in rural areas tends to focus on market towns or the rural fringes of larger urban settlements. Much more detailed analysis of the Land Registry dataset is possible and would provide more insight into the context in which housing is being provided in rural areas.

Showngraphically(figure15)thesupplyofmarkethousingcanbecontrastedwithfigure3showinghouseholdgrowthprojectionsandhousing demand. Some districts where market housing supply is greatest as a proportion of existing housing, such as those surrounding The Wash in the East of England and East Midlands regions, districts in the south of Dorset, mid-Devon and along the north coast of Cornwall, are also areas where demand is greatest. However, there are many districts where household growth is expected to be very high which are currently seeing very low levels of market housing supply. Those districts along northern coastal areas of the East of England region, in the Penwith and Lizard peninsulas of Cornwall, those in central and western parts of the Yorkshire and The Humber region as well as districts in the central North West region show the clearest differences.



Source:HMLR,2009.PricePaid.CLG,2009.Householdestimatesandprojectionsbydistrict,England,1981-2031.

Percentageofmid-2000households

0.4–2.6

2.7–3.6

3.7–4.5

4.6–6.2

6.3–13.9

Boundaries


12100

120

140

160

180

200

220

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Year

Ind

ex (

1997

= 1

00)

Figure17Index of average price of new build and all properties, 2000to2008(National)

Marketsector–Price

Figure16showsthatin2008theaveragepriceforanewbuildpropertyinaruralareawas£229,000,13%higherthanthepriceinurbanareas.Prices of new build properties in rural areas are substantially more than the national average, a pattern which is reflected in the differences between rural, urban and national prices for all properties.

Recent falls in house prices have brought the price of all properties, including new builds, down from their peak in 2007. However, the extent of price falls has differed between both rural and urban areas and betweenallpropertiesandnewbuildsasfigure17shows.

Figure16Average price of new build and all properties, 2000 to 2008(National)

Property type

Area definition

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

New builds

Rural £142,018 £155,770 £176,824 £196,145 £219,665 £224,797 £229,497 £239,181 £228,635

Urban>10K £137,220 £147,992 £164,518 £181,435 £194,998 £201,025 £203,634 £204,258 £202,615

England £138,425 £149,896 £167,459 £184,642 £200,076 £205,559 £208,606 £210,746 £207,309

All properties

Rural £125,618 £137,092 £161,545 £186,098 £212,109 £225,926 £240,222 £257,600 £256,698

Urban>10K £104,488 £114,252 £131,650 £148,442 £168,535 £182,733 £196,700 £212,823 £210,688

England £108,508 £118,491 £137,152 £155,213 £176,265 £190,320 £204,537 £220,880 £219,194


Rural – Newbuild

Urban>10K–Newbuild

Rural – All

Urban>10K–All


Year


Secondhomesandemptydwellings

Changes in the numbers of second homes and empty dwellings will impact on the supply of housing. Returns made by local authorites to enable the calculation of council taxes provide information on the numbers of properties which are registered as second homes for council taxpurposes.Figure18showsthatin2008/091.8%oftotaldwellingschargeable for council tax in predominantly rural districts were registeredasasecondhomeasopposedto0.9%inpredominantlyurbandistrictsand1.1%nationally.Onaveragebetween2006/07and2008/09anadditional1,507dwellingshavebeenregisteredassecondhomes in predominantly rural districts.

Figure19showsthatsecondhomesarepredominantlylocatedincoastaldistricts, especially in the South West, the South East and the East of England, and in districts associated closely with National Parks. Many of these districts are predicted to experience the greatest rates of householdgrowthintheperiodupto2031(figure3).

Figure18Second homes as a percentage of total chargeable dwellings,2006/07to2008/09(National)

Area classification 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09Average

annual change

Second homes

% of total chargeable

dwellings

Second homes


dwellings

Second homes


dwellings

Rural80 62,960 2.8% 62,041 2.7% 63,386 2.7% 213

Rural50 30,826 1.0% 30,813 1.0% 33,414 1.1% 1,294

Significant rural 26,080 0.9% 26,440 0.9% 28,051 0.9% 986

Other urban 24,216 0.7% 25,568 0.8% 26,505 0.8% 1,145

Large urban 24,116 0.8% 24,676 0.8% 25,708 0.9% 796

Major urban 71,849 1.0% 69,398 1.0% 75,154 1.0% 1,653

Predominantly rural 93,786 1.8% 92,854 1.8% 96,800 1.8% 1,507

Significantly rural 26,080 0.9% 26,440 0.9% 28,051 0.9% 986

Predominantly urban 120,181 0.9% 119,642 0.9% 127,367 0.9% 3,593

England 240,047 1.1% 238,936 1.1% 252,218 1.1% 6,086

Source:CLG,2009.CouncilTaxBase2009.


Figure19Secondhomes,2008/09

Source:CLG,2009.CouncilTaxBase2009.

Percentage of total chargeabledwellings

0.0–0.9

1.0–2.4

2.5–4.9

5.0–7.4

7.5–24.2

Boundaries


In the last year the number of privately owned vacant dwellings (figure 20)haverisenby9.3%inpredominantlyruraldistricts,anadditional12,000emptyproperties,andby2.8%inpredominantlyurbandistricts,anincreaseof11,000properties.TheDepartmentforCommunitiesandLocal Government (CLG) suggest that “more than half of all empty properties are transactional5”, referring to properties remaining unoccupied following a sale due to renovation requirements or for reasons of probate. However, these increases come at a time when propertytransactionsin2008havefallentohistoricallyverylowlevelsand it is therefore likely that increases have resulted, at least in part, from newly built properties remaining unsold.

Socialsector-Affordablehousing

Affordable housing is provided on assisted terms for households whose needs are not met by the market and includes social rented and shared equity housing. Houses are offered at sub-market prices and are restricted to specified types of households. Some demand for affordable housing will come from the market sector and some from the social sector. As demand for affordable housing crosses the divide between the two sectors it is more difficult to assess supply in relation to demand.

Figure21showsthatthenationalsupplyofadditionalaffordablehousing,includingconversionsaswellascompletions,hasincreasedfrom38,000in2004/05to56,000in2008/09.Inpredominantlyruraldistrictssupplyhasincreasedby49%duringtheperiodandnowaccountsfor23%ofnational supply.

Figure20Vacantdwellings,2007and2008(National)

Area classification

2007 2008 Percentage change

Total empty

dwellings

Privately owned empty

dwellings

Privately owned

dwellings vacant for

more than 6 months

Total empty

dwellings

Privately owned empty

dwellings

Privately owned

dwellings vacant for

more than 6 months

Total empty

dwellings

Privately ownedempty

dwellings

Rural80 72,809 67,209 31,878 77,940 73,922 33,953 7.0% 10.0%

Rural50 66,553 60,843 26,489 67,182 66,010 30,254 0.9% 8.5%

Significant rural 80,445 72,921 34,516 83,044 76,399 38,194 3.2% 4.8%

Other urban 91,901 81,171 38,086 87,971 84,184 38,010 -4.3% 3.7%

Large urban 105,373 92,202 40,669 105,551 92,441 46,612 0.2% 0.3%

Major urban 255,843 212,883 107,643 263,527 220,314 116,262 3.0% 3.5%

Predominantly rural 139,362 128,052 58,367 145,122 139,932 64,207 4.1% 9.3%

Significantly rural 80,445 72,921 34,516 83,044 76,399 38,194 3.2% 4.8%

Predominantly urban 453,117 386,256 186,398 457,049 396,939 200,884 0.9% 2.8%

England 672,924 587,229 279,281 685,215 613,270 303,285 1.8% 4.4%

Source:EmptyHomesAgency,2009.DataoriginatesfromCLG,2009.HSSA.

5 CLG,2009.Emptyhomes. www.communities.gov.uk/housing/housingmanagementcare/emptyhomes


Figure21Additionalaffordablehousing,2004/05to2008/09(National)

Area classification 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2004/05 to 2008/09 annual average

Rural80 3,860 5,370 4,720 5,810 7,450 5,442

Rural50 3,200 4,420 4,130 4,780 5,360 4,378

Significant rural 4,920 4,610 4,890 6,100 7,080 5,520

Other urban 6,390 7,850 6,460 8,950 8,470 7,624

Large urban 4,480 5,150 4,560 6,200 7,100 5,498

Major urban 14,730 17,610 18,890 21,540 20,460 18,646

Predominantly rural 7,060 9,790 8,850 10,590 12,810 9,820

Significantly rural 4,920 4,610 4,890 6,100 7,080 5,520

Predominantly urban 25,600 30,610 29,910 36,690 36,030 31,768

England 37,580 45,010 43,650 53,380 55,920 47,108

Source:CLG,2009.Additionalaffordabledwellingsprovidedbylocalauthorityarea(bylocationLA).

Figure22Affordablehousingcompletionsinsettlementsof<3,000people,2004/05to2009/10(National)

Area classification 2006/07 2007/08 Planned 2008/09 Proposed 2009/10

<3,000 Total % <3,000 Total % <3,000 Total % <3,000 Total %

Rural80 1,478 4,621 32.0% 1,922 6,697 28.7% 2,092 7,198 29.1% 2,667 8,248 32.3%

Rural50 707 3,780 18.7% 682 4,391 15.5% 813 5,093 16.0% 752 5,438 13.8%

Significant rural 633 4,639 13.6% 653 5,760 11.3% 675 6,162 11.0% 878 6,415 13.7%

Other urban 71 6,362 1.1% 63 7,820 0.8% 80 7,630 1.0% 52 8,574 0.6%

Large urban 159 4,547 3.5% 77 5,863 1.3% 137 5,930 2.3% 32 5,667 0.6%

Major urban 445 15,892 2.8% 1,329 17,507 7.6% 598 16,776 3.6% 332 18,268 1.8%

Predominantly rural 2,185 8,401 26.0% 2,604 11,088 23.5% 2,905 12,291 23.6% 3,419 13,686 25.0%

Significantly rural 633 4,639 13.6% 653 5,760 11.3% 675 6,162 11.0% 878 6,415 13.7%

Predominantly urban

675 26,801 2.5% 1,469 31,190 4.7% 815 30,336 2.7% 416 32,509 1.3%

England 3,493 39,841 8.8% 4,726 48,038 9.8% 4,395 48,789 9.0% 4,713 52,610 9.0%

Source:CLG,2009.HSSA2008.

Data at local authority level can be further broken down to show completionsinsettlementsbelow3,000peopleinordertoassessthesupply to smaller settlements. The analysis in figure 22 provides further evidence that housing supply to rural districts tends to be concentrated in larger settlements. In the latest year just under one third of affordable housing proposed for the most rural districts will be in smaller settlements and just a quarter for all predominantly rural districts.


Figure23showsthenumberofadditionalaffordabledwellingsbetween2004/05and2008/09asapercentageoftotalmid-2004households.Supply of affordable housing has been greatest in the southern and eastern regions, principally in the districts surrounding urban settlements such as Swindon, Oxford, Maidstone, Cambridge and Norfolk. However, some of the most rural districts such as West Devon, South Shropshire, Selby in the Yorkshire and The Humber region and Rutland in the East Midlands have also received proportionately high levels of affordable housing supply.

Comparingfigure3withfigure23(page27)highlightsthosedistrictswhere expected rates of household growth differ to current supply of affordable housing. On this evidence supply of affordable housing in many districts across all regions appears to be relatively low compared to the projected demand for housing. The most obvious disparities are again in the coastal districts of the East of England region, districts surrounding The Wash and central districts of the Yorkshire and The Humber region.

Socialsector-Socialrentedhousing

Social rented housing is provided by local authorities and RSLs. The analysispresentedinfigure24alsoincludesSection106developmentswhere the cost is met by the developer. The proportion of total additional dwellings in predominantly rural districts has been increasing at a faster ratethantheoverallincrease.In2004/05predominantlyruraldistrictsrepresented22%oftotaladditionaldwellingsand26%in2008/09.

Figure25mapsthesupplyofsocialrenteddwellingsovertheperiod2004/05to2008/09asapercentageofmid-2004households.Thepatternof supply is broadly comparable to the pattern of demand shown in figure3althoughdistrictssuchasEastRidingofYorkshire,TendringandEast Devon have the lowest levels of supply and the highest levels of projected demand.

Figure24Additionalsocialrentedhousing,2004/05to2008/09(National)

Area classification 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 Annual average

Rural80 2,750 3,190 3,090 3,620 4,740 3,478

Rural50 2,040 2,500 2,500 2,840 3,310 2,638

Significant rural 2,970 2,170 2,750 3,660 4,000 3,110

Other urban 3,260 3,960 3,530 4,830 4,440 4,004

Large urban 2,480 2,470 2,520 3,550 4,160 3,036

Major urban 8,330 8,830 10,040 11,080 10,470 9,750

Predominantly rural 4,790 5,690 5,590 6,460 8,050 6,116

Significantly rural 2,970 2,170 2,750 3,660 4,000 3,110

Predominantly urban 14,070 15,260 16,090 19,460 19,070 16,790

England 21,830 23,120 24,430 29,580 31,120 26,016

Source:CLG,2009.Additionalsocialrentdwellingsprovidedbylocalauthorityarea(bylocationLA).


Figure23Additionalaffordablehousing,2004/05to2008/09

Source:CLG,2009.Additionalaffordabledwellingsprovidedbylocalauthorityarea(bylocationLA).CLG,2009.Householdestimatesandprojectionsbydistrict,England,1981-2031.


0.05–0.49

0.50–0.79

0.80–1.09

1.10–1.59

1.60–6.40

Boundaries


Figure25Additionalsocialrentedhousing,2004/05to2008/09

Source:Additionalsocialrentdwellingsprovidedbylocalauthorityarea(bylocationLA).CLG,2009.Householdestimatesandprojectionsbydistrict,England,1981-2031.


0.0–0.29

0.30–0.49

0.50–0.59

0.60–0.89

0.90–3.65

Boundaries


Summaryoffindings

This State of the countryside update has presented evidence of housing demand and need and of housing supply in rural areas. The findings have important messages on the characteristics of rural housing demand and supply that will be relevant to rural policy makers.

The demand for housing arising through household growth is projectedtoincreaseinpredominantlyruraldistrictsby356,000householdseveryfiveyearsbetween2006and2031.Meanwhile,thenumber of new build properties sold in rural areas over the past five yearsis119,000.Thedisparitybetweenthesefiguressuggestthatrecent levels of annual housing supply will not be sufficient to meet the projected levels of newly arising housing demand.

In addition to unmet newly arising demand, the existing housing needs of many rural households remain unmet. Marked increases in the numbers of households on waiting lists for local authority housing outweigh decreases in the number of homeless households and households in temporary accommodation. Whilst the proportion of additional social rented sector housing provided in predominantly rural districts has risen in the last four years, the projected increases in the numbers of households in rural areas suggest that further pressure will be put on the social sector unless housing supply can increase further.

Numbers of second homes and vacant dwellings in rural districts continue to increase, further reducing the ability of supply to meet newandexistingdemandandneedforhousing.In2008predominantly rural districts have seen large percentage increases in the number of privately owned dwellings which are vacant. This may be in part due to new properties remaining unsold after completion but further investigation into this issue is needed to identify the cause of the increase.

Analysis of new build property transactions and affordable housing provisioninsettlementswithpopulationbelow3,000peoplehasprovided further evidence that within predominantly rural districts the supply of housing is focussed on the larger settlements. If the focus of housing provision is larger and more urban settlements, rural households will increasingly find that their housing demands and needs are left unmet unless they are prepared to move to larger or more urban settlements.

Evidence of housing supply and demand is fragmented along the lines of the different components which go together to make up the whole. In addition, data is scarce or incomplete at a spatial level below Local Authority District and Unitary Authority which would allow the rural and urban context of housing demand and supply to be analysed in greater accuracy. These two factors mean that it is very difficult to provide accurate evidence of housing demand, need and supply in rural areas and this issue should be addressed by organisations responsible for data collection and dissemination.

4


However, much more detailed spatial and financial analysis of the Land Registry data on new build residential property transactions is possible and would provide additional evidence of the context into which new market sector housing is provided in rural areas. This is an area of housing supply that future CRC publications will provide further evidence of.


Discussion

Our analyses demonstrate that growth in the number of households is greater in rural than urban areas. This growth continues to sustain the strong demand for both market and social housing in the countryside. Furthermore,ifthenewgrowthinruralhouseholdsto2031isrealised, it is likely that existing housing supply will not be able to meet that demand. The CRC recently reported on the impacts that economic recession has had on the supply of housing stock6 in both market and social housing sectors. Despite house prices falling over the last eighteen months, failure to strengthen supply to meet growing demand will exacerbate trends of higher average house prices in rural areas. Affordability problems have been well documented by the CRC7 and remain a key priority for our work.

Potentially, housing supply and demand pressures will have different implications for particular groups in rural areas. For instance, we know that an increasingly ageing rural population8 is starting to create greater demand pressures for smaller housing units as older residents seek to attain down-sized accommodation that enables them to age alongside existing friends and family networks. High demand in local markets will continue to affect and disadvantage those on the lowest incomes. With lending conditions being more stringent for the foreseeable future, we anticipate that first time buyers will face continuing high costs for some time to come.

Despite the weak supply of housing in rural areas, our analysis continues to demonstrate that second home ownership is growing at a higher rate in rural England. While second home ownership is most acute in coastal and national park areas, we can expect that the general upward trend within predominantly rural districts will exacerbate the demand pressures. In addition, privately owned vacant dwellings have increased markedly in predominantly rural districts. While this is a concerning trend, it may reverse in the near future as the housing market returns to more stable conditions following the economic recession.

It is encouraging to see the continual downward trend of homelessness and households in temporary accommodation. However, the increasing numbers of households on local authority waiting lists indicates that unmet need continues to increase in both rural and urban settlements. Encouragingly, there is a welcome increase in additional social rented housing in rural districts. However, these increases will need to be maintained on a year by year basis to accommodate existing and projected household growth.

In producing this report, the CRC has identified a scarcity in data below the local authority district and unitary authority level. Data available below this level would allow more in depth interrogation of local housing supply and demand trends. We suggest that those organisations responsible for data collection should enable rural analysis by extending this to a lower spatial scale. However, our analysis has begun to provide valuable evidence about the relationship between local demand pressures and housing supply.

5

6 CRC,2009.RecessionImpactsontheEconomiesandCommunitiesofRuralEngland:Report9.

7 ibid.

8 CRC, 2007. State of the countryside Report 2007. Between2001and2004medianageincreasedby1.4yearsinruraldistrictscomparedto1.1inurban districts.


The lower level analysis that we have been able to conduct demonstrates that housing supply tends to be concentrated in larger settlements. As noted, sparse hamlets and isolated dwellings account foraverysmallpercentageofnationalnewbuildproperties,just0.1%in2008.Thistrendiswelldocumentedby,forexample,theAffordable Rural Housing Commission and most recently Matthew Taylor’s review. The continuation of policies9 that restrict development in smaller rural settlements, the CRC argues, is inherently damaging to their long-term sustainability. The CRC remains committed to advocating more proactive planning and housing policies that will help to address the growing numbers of households requiring housing in rural areas.

We are contributing to the government’s efforts to streamline and simplify the planning system and to foster stronger community engagement in building more sustainable rural communities. The CRC continues to work closely with the Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, the Communities and Local Government Department and the Homes and Communities Agency to provide expert advice on the changing demographic trends which drive housing demand in rural England.

9 Post war spatial planning policies have tended to protect the countryside from development and to concentrate housing and businesses in larger urban and rural locations such as market towns and larger villages where existing service provision exists.


Annex One

Rural definitions used in this report

Ruralandurbandefinition

In2004,aprojectinvolvingtheCountrysideAgency,Departmentfor the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra), Office of the Deputy Prime Minister, now the Department for Communities and Local Government, National Assembly of Wales and the Office for National Statistics (ONS) produced the official definition of rural and urbanareas.Itdefinessettlementsofover10,000peopleas‘urban’,and defines smaller ‘rural’ settlements into three categories: ‘town and fringe’, ‘villages’, or ‘hamlets and isolated dwellings’. In addition, settlements are defined as to whether they are in ‘sparse’ or ‘less sparse’ areas. This definition can be used at most official levels of data collection from individual address and postcodes up to Ward and Super Output Area. Under this definition, people living in rural areas comprise19.3%ofthepopulation,abouthalfofwhomliveinsmalltowns.Only3.1%liveinsettlementssmallerthanvillagesandonly1.5%aredefinedaslivinginsparseareas.Figure26showshowthedefinitions are distributed around England.

A1


Figure26ONSruralandurbandefinition,2004.

Source:OfficeforNationalStatistics,2004.RuralandUrbanDefinitions.

Ruralandurbandefinition,2004

Hamlet & Isolated Dwellings – Less Sparse

Hamlet & Isolated Dwellings – Sparse

Village – Less Sparse

Village – Sparse

Town and Fringe – Less Sparse

Town and Fringe – Sparse

Urban>10K–LessSparse

Urban>10K–Sparse

Boundaries


Ruralandurbanclassificationoflocalauthoritydistrictsandunitary authorities

The classification of Local Authority Districts and Unitary Authorities wasintroducedin2005asaDefrainitiativeandwasdeliveredbytheRuralEvidenceResearchCentreatBirkbeckCollege.Manystatisticsare only available at district level and in order to differentiate between rural and urban for these statistics it was necessary to classify the districts based on their rurality.

There are six rural and urban classifications, which are defined as follows:

• Rural80:districtswithatleast80percentoftheirpopulationin rural settlements and larger market towns.

• Rural50:districtswithatleast50percentbutlessthan80percent of their population in rural settlements and larger market towns.

• Significantrural:districtswithmorethan37,000peopleormore than 26 percent of their population in rural settlements and larger market towns.

• Otherurban:districtswithfewerthan37,000peopleorlessthan 26 percent of their population in rural settlements and larger market towns.

• Largeurban:districtswitheither50,000peopleor50percentof theirpopulationinoneof17urbanareaswithapopulation between250,000and750,000.

• Majorurban:districtswitheither100,000peopleor50percent of their population in urban areas with a population of more than 750,000.

Districts can be aggregated into a broader three class rural and urban district classification as follows:

• Predominantlyrural:Rural80andRural50districts.

• Significantlyrural:Significantlyruraldistricts.

• Predominantlyurban:Otherurban,LargeurbanandMajorurban districts.


Figure27Defra classification of Local Authority Districts and Unitary Authorities, 2005.

Source:Defra,2005.

Classification of Local Authority DistrictsandUnitaryAuthorities2005

Rural80

Rural50

Significant rural

Other urban

Large urban

Major urban

Boundaries


2009updatetotheclassification

InApril2009significantchangesinthestructureoflocalgovernmentcame into force. These changes, especially the creation of nine new unitary authorities, necessitated an update to the classification of Local Authority Districts and Unitary Authorities. The Government Statistical Service Regional and Geography Group commissioned a working group to look at this issue, and the outcome of this working group is a reviseddistrictclassificationasshowninfigure28.

For more information on both the rural and urban definition and classification, please visit: www.statistics.gov.uk/geography/nrudp.asp.


Figure28Defra classification of Local Authority Districts and Unitary Authorities, 2009.

Source:Defra,2009.

Classification of Local Authority DistrictsandUnitaryAuthorities2009

Rural80

Rural50

Significant rural

Other urban

Large urban

Major urban

Boundaries

CommissionforRuralCommunities

John Dower House Crescent Place CheltenhamGlos.GL503RATelephone01242521381Facsimile01242584270

Email [email protected]

CRCWEB42/February2010

state of the countryside update: housing demand and supply · 5 state of the countryside update:...

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