Status of the NWP-System& based on COSMO managed by ARPA-SIM

COSMO I7 7 km BCs from IFS Nudging CINECA

COSMO I2 2.8 km BCs from COSMO I7

Interpolated from COSMO I7

CINECA

COSMO (e-suite):

test suite based on COSMO I7 CINECA

COSMO bk 7 km BCs from GME

Nudging ARPA SIM cluster

COSMO LEPS 10 km 16 members

Planned developments of NWP-System based on COSMO managed by ARPA-SIM

COSMO I7 7 km BCs from IFS Nudging CINECA

COSMO I2 2.8 km BCs from COSMO I7

Nudging CINECA

COSMO (e-suite):

test suite based on COSMO I7 & COSMO I2 CINECA

COSMO bk 7 km BCs from GME

Nudging ARPA SIM cluster

COSMO LEPS 7 km 16 members Larger integration domain

Introduction of the DWD soil moisture analysis scheme Dynamical database of physiographic parameters

(leaf area index) Adoption of the multi-layer soil model Assimilation of pseudo-profiles derived from satellite

by the 1-D var technique

Planned developments of NWP-System based on COSMO managed by ARPA-SIM

Implementation of the prototype for a Rapid Updating Cycle suite at 2.8 km hor. Res.

&

Soil Moisture Analysis

Uses T_2m temperatures to adjust soil moisture during a 24 hours integration time. The scheme was firstly developed by Martin Lange (DWD)

Rapidly Updating Cycle

Leaf Area Index DYNAMICAL DATASET

MODIS estimates of LAI are used to update daily the input to the TERRA Scheme

Example of variability introduced by the use of the MODIS dataset compared to a FIX LAI Assumption.

Full validation available at: C. Knote, G Bonafe and F . Di Giuseppe The specification of Leaf Area Index for use in mesoscale weather prediction system. Monthly Weather Review, Submitted

Future Developments & Contributions to COSMO

Code management Newsletter editing Coordination of WG3 Participation to Expert Team EPS Verification Data assimilation Ensemble Forecasting

Variational Assimilation SATELLITE RADAR

People involved: Francesca Di Giuseppe, Virginia Poli, Davide Cesari, Giovanni Bonafè

Variational AssimilationSame framework for satellite and radar observations:

Convert observations (Radiances and/or rain rates (RR)) in profiles of temperature and humidity and nudge them as “pseudo”-observations.

Model Space

Observation Space

no

yes

Analysisxa=x

Minimization?0 Jx

bxJ

0J

Backgroundxb=(Tb, qb, ps

b)

x=(T, q, ps)

Initializationx=xb

Jx

0Jx

bJ

∇ obs J 0

Data Assimilation

Example of MSG assimilation

Assimilation of RR is able to dry off precipitation and also to create structures in the right place

Cumulated precipitation at +24hr forecast time for two cases. The two simulations have been performed with and without the assimilation of SEVIRI data. Data from the rain gauges network on the far right. The areas underlined with red circles are regions where the forecast showed poor performance.

NO impact: too few data assimilated

GOOD impact in reducing over predicted precipitation

Data Assimilation

Control run – Forecast +1 hour Experimental run – Forecast +1 hour

Control run – Forecast +6 hours Experimental run – Forecast +6 hours

Example of RR assimilationVery encouraging results!

Shades: Radar observation

Contours: COSMO-I2 forecasted RR

Assimilation of RR is able to dry off precipitation and also to create structures in the right place

Data Assimilation

Other developments planned on COSMO LEPS

increase of horizontal mesh-size from 10 to 7 km:

enlarge the integration domain to the north (to cover part of the Baltic sea) and to the east (to cover all Greek islands);

use the soil moisture analysis fields provided by DWD

use a better snow analysis

test the impact of extending the cluster analysis so as to consider not only ECMWF EPS, but also UKMO MOGREPS as global ensemble providing initial and boundary conditions;

develop coding of COSMO-LEPS output files in GRIB2 format;

migration to the new machine;

Ensemble

Other possible developments on COSMO LEPS also included in the PP CONSENS

Calibration

Test the impact of other perturbations based on the outcome of the COSMO-SREPS investigations

Test COSMO-LEPS nested on the under-development ECMWF EDA during MAP D‑PHASE period.

Ensemble

Developments of COSMO SREPS included in the PP CONSENS

The system is presently running quasi-regularly at ECMWF, using the Billing Units provided by some COSMO Countries.

COSMO-SREPS provides initial and boundary conditions to the convection-resolving ensemble under development at DWD (COSMO-DE-EPS) and it is used to compute a flow-dependent B-matrix for a test version of the 1d-Var assimilation of satellite data under development at ARPA-SIM.

The main developments of the system planned for the next year , which are also part of the PP CONSENS, are:

to implement a greater number of parameter perturbations, derived from the results obtained within the COSMO-SREPS Priority Project;

consolidate the suite availability by implementing a back-up suite completely managed by COSMO;

move from 10 to 7 km horizontal resolution, depending of the availability of computing resources.