student population in texas · migration net international migration natural increase source: u.s....
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@TexasDemography
Student Population in Texas
Texas Commission on Public School Finance
January 23, 2018
Austin, Texas
Key points
• Texas is growing fast and by a lot, 50% from natural increase.• Urban core and suburban ring counties growing most.• Many rural counties continue to lose population.• Population growth driven by younger Latinos.• Children in poverty most substantial in the urban core counties and in the lower RGV.
• Percent children in poverty greatest in lower RGV.• Children in who do not speak English at home most substantial in urban core counties and lower RGV.
• Percent children who do not speak English at home greatest in lower RGV.• Substantial divide between Hispanics and other race/ethnic groups in educational attainment and income.
• Trends in educational attainment suggest increasing percent of labor force aged population has post‐secondary education.
2
Growing States, 2010‐2017
2010 CensusPopulation 2017 Population
NumericChange
2010-2017
PercentChange
2010-2017
United States 308,745,538 325,719,178 16,973,640 5.5%
Texas 25,145,561 28,304,596 3,159,035 12.6%
California 37,253,956 39,536,653 2,282,697 6.1%
Florida 18,801,310 20,984,400 2,183,090 11.6%
Georgia 9,687,653 10,429,379 741,726 7.7%
North Carolina 9,535,483 10,273,419 737,936 7.7%
Washington 6,724,540 7,405,743 681,203 10.1%
Arizona 6,392,017 7,016,270 624,253 9.8%
Colorado 5,029,196 5,607,154 577,958 11.5%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Count, 2017 Population Estimates.
Estimates of percent components of population change, Texas, 2011‐2017
53.2% 48.4% 51.6% 45.2% 43.0% 47.1% 52.5%
17.6%17.8%
20.7%20.3% 22.1%
24.9%27.7%
29.3% 33.7% 27.7% 34.5% 34.9%28.0%
19.8%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Net DomesticMigration
Net InternationalMigration
Natural Increase
4Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 Vintage population estimates
Domestic net‐migration, Texas, Florida, California, 2011‐2017
5
117,61
5
145,51
3
110,61
4
163,16
0
174,20
0
125,80
0
79,163
105,69
6
91,745
99,228
144,01
7
196,56
0
216,95
6
160,85
4
(54,62
6)
(40,75
6)
(53,07
6)
(46,33
0)
(80,85
9)
(122
,123
)
(138
,195
)
(200,000)
(150,000)
(100,000)
(50,000)
‐
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Texas Florida California
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 Vintage Population Estimates
Pecos
Brewster
Webb
Hudspeth
PresidioTerrell
CulbersonReeves
Val Verde
Crockett
Hill
Duval
Harris
Frio
Bell
Kerr
Kenedy
Starr
Polk
Clay
Edwards
Irion
Hall
Ellis
Jeff Davis
Sutton
Uvalde
Bee
Hale
Dallam
Leon
Bexar
Gaines
Hidalgo
Upton
Hartley
King
Erath
Jack
Kinney
Kent
Zavala
Brazoria
Tyler
GrayOldham
Dimmit
CassLynn HuntWise
La Salle
Rusk
Kimble
Lamb
Medina
Floyd
Terry
Coke
Llano
Liberty
Ector
Andrews
Milam
Travis Lee
Knox
Mills
Smith
Falls
Ward
Collin
Jones
Nolan
Potter
Burnet
Cottle
Nueces
Taylor
Zapata
Real
Coryell
Bowie
Motley
Young
Lamar
Martin
Garza
DallasFisher
Moore
Baylor
Kleberg
Archer
Scurry
Cameron
Cooke
Mason
Parker
Castro
Navarro
Brooks
Hardin
Deaf Smith
Lavaca
Donley
Hays
Goliad
Denton
El Paso
Fannin
Tarrant
Crane
Carson
Crosby
Borden
Schleicher
Gillespie
Shelby
Foard
Wood
Menard
Panola
Walker
Winkler
Harrison
Eastland
Loving
Bandera
Wichita
Hood
Matagorda
Brown
Reagan Houston
Maverick
Jasper
Coleman
Tom Green
Bailey
DeWittAtascosa
Bosque
Wharton
Concho
Runnels
Fayette
Haskell
Calhoun
Newton
Live Oak
Randall
Sterling
Jefferson
Briscoe
McMullen
Parmer
Jim Hogg
Mitchell
Wilson
Victoria
Trinity
Roberts
Howard
Bastrop
Grayson
San Saba
Midland
Hockley Dickens
Swisher
Gonzales
Anderson
Dawson
Willacy
Grimes
Wheeler
Cherokee
Colorado
Lubbock
Karnes
Red River
Refugio
Austin
Hemphill
Williamson
Jackson
Blanco
Ochiltree
McCulloch
Sherman
Wilbarger
Hansford
Callahan
McLennan
Yoakum
Angelina
Hopkins
Lipscomb
StephensPalo Pinto
Stonewall
Hamilton
MontagueCochran
Jim Wells
Limestone
Kaufman
Fort Bend
Titus
Comal
Armstrong
Kendall
FreestoneComancheGlasscock
Johnson
Galveston
Henderson
Montgomery
Brazos
Van Zandt
Chambers
Robertson
Waller
Sabine
Upshur
Hutchinson
Shackelford
Childress
Burleson
Nacogdoches
Lampasas
Collingsworth
Hardeman
Throckmorton
Guadalupe
Caldwell
Aransas
Marion
San Patricio
Madison
San Jacinto
Delta
Washington Orange
Rains
Gregg
Morris
San Augustine
Franklin
Somervell
Rockwall
Estimated Population Change, Texas Counties, 2010 to 2016
6Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Vintage Population Estimates
96 counties lost population over the 6 year period.
-2,010 - 0
1 - 1,000
1,001 - 20,000
20,001 - 100,000
100,001 - 497,469
CountyU.S. Rank Population Change
Population Change
Percent of Change from
Natural Increase
Percent Changefrom Domestic
Migration
Percent Change from
International Migration
Harris 2 56,587 79.9% ‐27.9% 48.1%Tarrant 5 35,462 44.4% 37.7% 17.9%Bexar 7 33,198 44.6% 39.3% 16.1%Dallas 9 29,209 79.9% ‐20.9% 41.0%Denton 11 27,689 23.9% 67.1% 9.0%
Fort Bend 13 27,388 24.8% 59.4% 15.8%Collin 14 26,506 25.8% 58.7% 15.5%Travis 17 24,505 44.2% 33.3% 22.5%
Williamson 22 20,659 20.3% 74.1% 5.6%Montgomery 24 19,769 18.5% 73.5% 8.0%Hidalgo* 54 10,529 113.5% ‐33.4% 19.9%
Hidalgo County had negative net migration (‐13.5% of total population growth).Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Vintage Population Estimates
Top Counties for Numeric Growth in Texas, 2015-2016
250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000Under 1 year
5 years
10 years
15 years
20 years
25 years
30 years
35 years
40 years
45 years
50 years
55 years
60 years
65 years
70 years
75 years
80 years
85 + years
Male White, Non‐Hispanic Male Black, Non Hispanic Male Other, Non Hispanic Male Hispanic
Female White, Non‐Hispanic Female Black, Non Hispanic Female Other, Non Hispanic Female, Hispanic
8
Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2014
Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2014 Population Estimates
Estimated Population by Age Group, Texas, 2010 through 2016
1,800,000
1,850,000
1,900,000
1,950,000
2,000,000
2,050,000
2,100,000
0‐4 5‐9 10‐14 15‐19
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
9Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 Vintage Population Estimates
Estimated number of children less than 18 years of age, living below poverty, by county, Texas, 2012‐2016
Pecos
Brewster
Webb
Hudspeth
PresidioTerrell
CulbersonReeves
Crockett
Val Verde
Hill
Duval
Harris
Bell
Frio
Kerr
Clay
Polk
Kenedy
Hall
Starr
Irion
Edwards
Ellis
Jeff Davis
Dallam
Hale
Sutton
Uvalde
Hartley
Leon
Gaines
Bee
Bexar
King
Upton
Erath
Jack
GrayOldham
Kent
Hidalgo
Kinney
Cass
Tyler
Lynn HuntWise
Zavala
Brazoria
Lamb Floyd
Dimmit
Rusk
Terry
Kimble
La Salle
Coke
Medina
Llano
Andrews
Ector
Knox
Milam
Travis Lee
Smith
Mills
Falls
Potter
Collin
Jones
Ward
Cottle
Nolan Taylor
Bowie
Motley
Coryell
Young
Moore
Lamar
Garza
Real
Martin
Dallas
Nueces
Fisher
Baylor Archer
Scurry
Cooke
Castro
Deaf Smith
Parker
Bailey
Donley
Mason
Navarro
Kleberg
Hardin
Denton
Fannin
Carson
Cameron
Tarrant
Crosby
Goliad
Crane
Borden
Randall
Haskell
BriscoeParmer
Schleicher
Foard
Shelby
Gillespie
Wood
Panola
Menard Walker
Winkler
HarrisonEastland
Loving
Wichita
Hood
Liberty
Burnet
Brown
Reagan Houston
Matagorda
Zapata
Coleman
Jasper
Maverick
Tom Green
Bosque
DeWitt
El Paso
Lavaca
Hays
Brooks
Atascosa
Runnels
Concho
Wharton
Fayette
Roberts
Newton
Sterling
Mitchell
Calhoun
Jefferson
Grayson
Live Oak
Trinity
Howard
Wilson
McMullen
Swisher
Hockley
Victoria
Dickens
Midland
San Saba
Jim Hogg
Wheeler
Bastrop
Dawson
Anderson
Gonzales
Hemphill
Grimes
Cherokee
LubbockRed River
OchiltreeShermanHansford
Willacy
Colorado
Wilbarger
Williamson
Austin
Karnes
Blanco
Callahan
Lipscomb
Refugio
McCulloch
Jackson
Yoakum
McLennan
Hopkins
Angelina
StephensPalo PintoStonewall
Montague
Hamilton
Cochran
Bandera
Armstrong
Kaufman
Titus
LimestoneFreestone
Fort Bend
Comanche
Jim Wells
Glasscock
Johnson
KendallComal
Henderson
Van Zandt
Montgomery
Galveston
Brazos
Hutchinson
Robertson
Upshur
Chambers
Sabine
Waller
Childress
Shackelford
Burleson
Nacogdoches
Collingsworth
Lampasas
Hardeman
Throckmorton
GuadalupeCaldwell
Marion
AransasSan Patricio
Madison
Delta
San Jacinto
Washington Orange
Rains
Gregg
Morris
San Augustine
Franklin
Somervell
Rockwall
10
0 - 5,000
5,001 - 20,000
20,001 - 75,000
75,001 - 150,000
150,001 - 309,991
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5‐Year Sample, 2012‐2016
Estimated percent of children less than 18 years of age, living below poverty, by county, Texas, 2012‐2016
11Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5‐Year Sample, 2012‐2016
Pecos
Brewster
Webb
Hudspeth
PresidioTerrell
CulbersonReeves
Crockett
Val Verde
Hill
Duval
Harris
Bell
Frio
Kerr
Clay
Polk
Kenedy
Hall
Starr
Irion
Edwards
Ellis
Jeff Davis
Dallam
Hale
Sutton
Uvalde
Hartley
Leon
Gaines
Bee
Bexar
King
Upton
Erath
Jack
GrayOldham
Kent
Hidalgo
Kinney
Cass
Tyler
Lynn HuntWise
Zavala
Brazoria
Lamb Floyd
Dimmit
Rusk
Terry
Kimble
La Salle
Coke
Medina
Llano
Andrews
Ector
Knox
Milam
Travis Lee
Smith
MillsFalls
Potter
Collin
Jones
Ward
Cottle
Nolan Taylor
Bowie
Motley
Coryell
Young
Moore
Lamar
Garza
Real
Martin
Dallas
Nueces
Fisher
Baylor Archer
Scurry
Cooke
Castro
Deaf Smith
Parker
Bailey
Donley
Mason
Navarro
Kleberg
Hardin
Denton
Fannin
Carson
Cameron
Tarrant
Crosby
Goliad
Crane
Borden
Randall
Haskell
BriscoeParmer
Schleicher
Foard
Shelby
Gillespie
Wood
Panola
Menard Walker
Winkler
HarrisonEastland
Loving
Wichita
Hood
Liberty
Burnet
Brown
Reagan Houston
Matagorda
Zapata
Coleman
Jasper
Maverick
Tom Green
Bosque
DeWitt
El Paso
Lavaca
Hays
Brooks
Atascosa
Runnels
Concho
Wharton
Fayette
Roberts
Newton
Sterling
Mitchell
Calhoun
Jefferson
Grayson
Live Oak
Trinity
Howard
Wilson
McMullen
Swisher
Hockley
Victoria
Dickens
Midland
San Saba
Jim Hogg
Wheeler
Bastrop
Dawson
Anderson
Gonzales
Hemphill
Grimes
Cherokee
LubbockRed River
OchiltreeShermanHansford
Willacy
Colorado
Wilbarger
Williamson
Austin
Karnes
Blanco
Callahan
Lipscomb
Refugio
McCulloch
Jackson
Yoakum
McLennan
Hopkins
Angelina
StephensPalo PintoStonewall
Montague
Hamilton
Cochran
Bandera
Armstrong
Kaufman
Titus
LimestoneFreestone
Fort Bend
Comanche
Jim Wells
Glasscock
Johnson
KendallComal
Henderson
Van Zandt
Montgomery
Galveston
Brazos
Hutchinson
Robertson
Upshur
Chambers
Sabine
Waller
Childress
Shackelford
Burleson
Nacogdoches
Collingsworth
Lampasas
Hardeman
Throckmorton
GuadalupeCaldwell
Marion
AransasSan Patricio
Madison
Delta
San Jacinto
Washington Orange
Rains
Gregg
Morris
San Augustine
Franklin
Somervell
Rockwall
0% - 10%
10.1% - 20%
20.1% - 30%
30.1% - 40%
40.1% - 56.5%
Estimated number of children ages 5‐17 years that do not speak English at home by county, Texas, 2012‐2016
Pecos
Brewster
Webb
Hudspeth
PresidioTerrell
CulbersonReeves
Crockett
Val Verde
Hill
Duval
Harris
Bell
Frio
Kerr
Clay
Polk
Kenedy
Hall
Starr
Irion
Edwards
Ellis
Jeff Davis
Dallam
Hale
Sutton
Uvalde
Hartley
Leon
Gaines
Bee
Bexar
King
Upton
Erath
Jack
GrayOldham
Kent
Hidalgo
Kinney
Cass
Tyler
Lynn HuntWise
Zavala
Brazoria
Lamb Floyd
Dimmit
Rusk
Terry
Kimble
La Salle
Coke
Medina
Llano
Andrews
Ector
Knox
Milam
Travis Lee
Smith
MillsFalls
Potter
Collin
Jones
Ward
Cottle
Nolan Taylor
Bowie
Motley
Coryell
Young
Moore
Lamar
Garza
Real
Martin
Dallas
Nueces
Fisher
Baylor Archer
Scurry
Cooke
Castro
Deaf Smith
Parker
Bailey
Donley
Mason
Navarro
Kleberg
Hardin
Denton
Fannin
Carson
Cameron
Tarrant
Crosby
Goliad
Crane
Borden
Randall
Haskell
BriscoeParmer
Schleicher
Foard
Shelby
Gillespie
Wood
Panola
Menard Walker
Winkler
HarrisonEastland
Loving
Wichita
Hood
Liberty
Burnet
Brown
Reagan Houston
Matagorda
Zapata
Coleman
Jasper
Maverick
Tom Green
Bosque
DeWitt
El Paso
Lavaca
Hays
Brooks
Atascosa
Runnels
Concho
Wharton
Fayette
Roberts
Newton
Sterling
Mitchell
Calhoun
Jefferson
Grayson
Live Oak
Trinity
Howard
Wilson
McMullen
Swisher
Hockley
Victoria
Dickens
Midland
San Saba
Jim Hogg
Wheeler
Bastrop
Dawson
Anderson
Gonzales
Hemphill
Grimes
Cherokee
LubbockRed River
OchiltreeShermanHansford
Willacy
Colorado
Wilbarger
Williamson
Austin
Karnes
Blanco
Callahan
Lipscomb
Refugio
McCulloch
Jackson
Yoakum
McLennan
Hopkins
Angelina
StephensPalo PintoStonewall
Montague
Hamilton
Cochran
Bandera
Armstrong
Kaufman
Titus
LimestoneFreestone
Fort Bend
Comanche
Jim Wells
Glasscock
Johnson
KendallComal
Henderson
Van Zandt
Montgomery
Galveston
Brazos
Hutchinson
Robertson
Upshur
Chambers
Sabine
Waller
Childress
Shackelford
Burleson
Nacogdoches
Collingsworth
Lampasas
Hardeman
Throckmorton
GuadalupeCaldwell
Marion
AransasSan Patricio
Madison
Delta
San Jacinto
Washington Orange
Rains
Gregg
Morris
San Augustine
Franklin
Somervell
Rockwall
12Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5‐Year Sample, 2012‐2016
0 - 2,500
2,501 - 10,000
10,001 - 50,000
50,001 - 100,000
100,001 - 391,754
Estimated percent of children ages 5‐17 years that do not speak English at home by county, Texas, 2012‐2016
13Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5‐Year Sample, 2012‐2016
Pecos
Brewster
Webb
Hudspeth
PresidioTerrell
CulbersonReeves
Crockett
Val Verde
Hill
Duval
Harris
Bell
Frio
Kerr
Clay
Polk
Kenedy
Hall
Starr
Irion
Edwards
Ellis
Jeff Davis
Dallam
Hale
Sutton
Uvalde
Hartley
Leon
Gaines
Bee
Bexar
King
Upton
Erath
Jack
GrayOldham
Kent
Hidalgo
Kinney
Cass
Tyler
Lynn HuntWise
Zavala
Brazoria
Lamb Floyd
Dimmit
Rusk
Terry
Kimble
La Salle
Coke
Medina
Llano
Andrews
Ector
Knox
Milam
Travis Lee
Smith
Mills
Falls
Potter
Collin
Jones
Ward
Cottle
Nolan Taylor
Bowie
Motley
Coryell
Young
Moore
Lamar
Garza
Real
Martin
Dallas
Nueces
Fisher
Baylor Archer
Scurry
Cooke
Castro
Deaf Smith
Parker
Bailey
Donley
Mason
Navarro
Kleberg
Hardin
Denton
Fannin
Carson
Cameron
Tarrant
Crosby
Goliad
Crane
Borden
Randall
Haskell
BriscoeParmer
Schleicher
Foard
Shelby
Gillespie
Wood
Panola
Menard Walker
Winkler
HarrisonEastland
Loving
Wichita
Hood
Liberty
Burnet
Brown
Reagan Houston
Matagorda
Zapata
Coleman
Jasper
Maverick
Tom Green
Bosque
DeWitt
El Paso
Lavaca
Hays
Brooks
Atascosa
Runnels
Concho
Wharton
Fayette
Roberts
Newton
Sterling
Mitchell
Calhoun
Jefferson
Grayson
Live Oak
Trinity
Howard
Wilson
McMullen
Swisher
Hockley
Victoria
Dickens
Midland
San Saba
Jim Hogg
Wheeler
Bastrop
Dawson
Anderson
Gonzales
Hemphill
Grimes
Cherokee
LubbockRed River
OchiltreeShermanHansford
Willacy
Colorado
Wilbarger
Williamson
Austin
Karnes
Blanco
Callahan
Lipscomb
Refugio
McCulloch
Jackson
Yoakum
McLennan
Hopkins
Angelina
StephensPalo PintoStonewall
Montague
Hamilton
Cochran
Bandera
Armstrong
Kaufman
Titus
LimestoneFreestone
Fort Bend
Comanche
Jim Wells
Glasscock
Johnson
KendallComal
Henderson
Van Zandt
Montgomery
Galveston
Brazos
Hutchinson
Robertson
Upshur
Chambers
Sabine
Waller
Childress
Shackelford
Burleson
Nacogdoches
Collingsworth
Lampasas
Hardeman
Throckmorton
GuadalupeCaldwell
Marion
AransasSan Patricio
Madison
Delta
San Jacinto
Washington Orange
Rains
Gregg
Morris
San Augustine
Franklin
Somervell
Rockwall
0% - 10%
10.1% - 25%
25.1% - 50%
50.1% - 75%
75.1% - 93.3%
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Millions
Zero Net Migration
Half 2000 ‐2010
2000 ‐2010
2010 ‐2015
Estimates
Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2010‐2050
14Source: Texas State Data Center 2016 Population Projections
Projected Population of Persons Aged 0‐18 Years by Race and Ethnicity, Texas 2010‐2050
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
NH White Total .5 NH Black Total .5 Hispanic Total .5 NH Other Total .5
NH White Total NH Black Total Hispanic Total NH Other Total
15Source: Texas State Data Center 2016 Population Projections
Projected change in total population aged 0‐18 years, Texas counties, 2010‐2030
16Source: Texas Demographic Center 2016 Population Projections, 2000-2010 migration scenario.
DallasHoward
FoardFloyd
Brewster
FranklinHunt
Newton
Starr
Kinney
Collingsworth
TomGreen
Coleman
Brazoria
Leon
Duval
Lamb
Morris
Smith
Jackson
Medina
Wheeler
Dallam
Callahan
Lamar
Coryell
Gaines
Kendall
Nacogdoches
Milam
Hays
Willacy
Johnson
Reagan
Webb
Shackelford
Bowie
Scurry
Kenedy
Somervell
Oldham
Taylor
King
Borden
Walker
Stephens
Deaf Smith
Roberts
Tyler
Val Verde
Brown
Parker
Harris
Zapata
RedRiver
Karnes
PaloPinto
GlasscockShelby
Wood
Crosby
Refugio
Burnet
Sterling
Montgomery
San Augustine
Rains
Nueces
Jack
Swisher
Brazos
Orange
Colorado
Pecos
Cochran
Parmer
Freestone
Winkler
Wichita
Gray
Schleicher
Hardeman
TravisGillespie
Yoakum
Fayette
Uvalde
Grimes
VanZandt
Throckmorton
Falls
Grayson
Ellis
Hall
Dickens
TrinityReeves
Marion
Terrell
Lynn
LaSalle
Jasper
Jones
Castro
Victoria
Kleberg
Briscoe
Clay
Matagorda
Brooks
Runnels
Carson
Liberty
Lee
Hale
Bexar
Garza
Montague
UptonHamilton
FisherDawson
Dimmit
Limestone
Hutchinson
Llano
Presidio
Eastland
Sabine
Wharton
Rusk
Tarrant
Lavaca
Childress
Hidalgo
Kaufman
Moore
Menard
Edwards
SanPatricio
Terry
Crockett
Houston
Waller
Coke
Ward
Titus
Lampasas
Haskell
Martin
Atascosa
HemphillHartley
Young
BurlesonHardin
Gonzales
McMullen
Erath
Galveston
Hopkins
McLennan
Madison
McCulloch
Donley
Kent
Real
Sutton
Midland
Hudspeth
Zavala
Harrison
Comanche
Mitchell
Navarro
Crane
Lubbock
Wise
Washington
Jeff Davis
El Paso
Gregg
Williamson
Lipscomb
Mason
Henderson
Hansford
Chambers
Hill
Potter
Jim Wells
DeltaStonewall
Ector
Cameron
Maverick
Collin
Baylor
Panola
Guadalupe
Bastrop
Austin
Andrews
Anderson
Blanco
DeWitt
Bandera
Bell
Aransas
Archer
Armstrong
Bee
Angelina
Bailey
Jefferson
Frio
Fannin
Goliad
Loving
Cass
Fort Bend
Bosque
Hockley
SanSaba
Kerr
Mills
Cooke
Wilbarger
Irion
Caldwell
JimHogg
Culberson
Upshur
Cherokee
Denton
Concho
Randall
Kimble
Knox
Polk
Hood
San Jacinto
Robertson
Wilson
Nolan
Cottle
Calhoun
Rockwall
LiveOak
Motley
Sherman Ochiltree
Comal
-587 - -250
-249 - 0
1 - 10,000
10,001 - 100,000
100,001 - 264,709
Projected percent change in total population aged 0‐18 years, Texas counties, 2010‐2030
17Source: Texas Demographic Center 2016 Population Projections, 2000-2010 migration scenario.
DallasHoward
FoardFloyd
Brewster
FranklinHunt
Newton
Starr
Kinney
Collingsworth
TomGreen
Coleman
Brazoria
Leon
Duval
Lamb
Morris
Smith
Jackson
Medina
Wheeler
Dallam
Callahan
Lamar
Coryell
Gaines
Kendall
Nacogdoches
Milam
Hays
Willacy
Johnson
Reagan
Webb
Shackelford
Bowie
Scurry
Kenedy
Somervell
Oldham
Taylor
King
Borden
Walker
Stephens
Deaf Smith
Roberts
Tyler
Val Verde
Brown
Parker
Harris
Zapata
RedRiver
Karnes
PaloPinto
GlasscockShelby
Wood
Crosby
Refugio
Burnet
Sterling
Montgomery
San Augustine
Rains
Nueces
Jack
Swisher
Brazos
Orange
Colorado
Pecos
Cochran
Parmer
Freestone
Winkler
Wichita
Gray
Schleicher
Hardeman
TravisGillespie
Yoakum
Fayette
Uvalde
Grimes
VanZandt
Throckmorton
Falls
Grayson
Ellis
Hall
Dickens
TrinityReeves
Marion
Terrell
Lynn
LaSalle
Jasper
Jones
Castro
Victoria
Kleberg
Briscoe
Clay
Matagorda
Brooks
Runnels
Carson
Liberty
Lee
Hale
Bexar
Garza
Montague
UptonHamilton
FisherDawson
Dimmit
Limestone
Hutchinson
Llano
Presidio
Eastland
Sabine
Wharton
Rusk
Tarrant
Lavaca
Childress
Hidalgo
Kaufman
Moore
Menard
Edwards
SanPatricio
Terry
Crockett
Houston
Waller
Coke
Ward
Titus
Lampasas
Haskell
Martin
Atascosa
HemphillHartley
Young
BurlesonHardin
Gonzales
McMullen
Erath
Galveston
Hopkins
McLennan
Madison
McCulloch
Donley
Kent
Real
Sutton
Midland
Hudspeth
Zavala
Harrison
Comanche
Mitchell
Navarro
Crane
Lubbock
Wise
Washington
Jeff Davis
El Paso
Gregg
Williamson
Lipscomb
Mason
Henderson
Hansford
Chambers
Hill
Potter
Jim Wells
DeltaStonewall
Ector
Cameron
Maverick
Collin
Baylor
Panola
Guadalupe
Bastrop
Austin
Andrews
Anderson
Blanco
DeWitt
Bandera
Bell
Aransas
Archer
Armstrong
Bee
Angelina
Bailey
Jefferson
Frio
Fannin
Goliad
Loving
Cass
Fort Bend
Bosque
Hockley
SanSaba
Kerr
Mills
Cooke
Wilbarger
Irion
Caldwell
JimHogg
Culberson
Upshur
Cherokee
Denton
Concho
Randall
Kimble
Knox
Polk
Hood
San Jacinto
Robertson
Wilson
Nolan
Cottle
Calhoun
Rockwall
LiveOak
Motley
Sherman Ochiltree
Comal
-100% - -10%
-9.9% - 0%
0.1% - 20%
20.1% - 40%
40.1% - 137.4%
Projected population and population change for persons aged 0‐18 years, 2010‐2030 for Texas counties by metro status
18
Total MetroMetro 1 million or more
Metro less than 1 million Nonmetro
Nonmetroadjacent to
metro
Nonmetro not adjacent to
metro
Projected Numeric
Change 2010‐2030
Total 2,184,778 2,066,849 1,599,918 466,931 117,929 91,145 26,784
NH White (24,243) (13,261) (5,787) (7,474) (10,982) (11,006) 24
Black 95,170 100,349 95,110 5,239 (5,179) (3,632) (1,547)
Hispanic 1,745,883 1,624,210 1,201,130 423,080 121,673 95,098 26,575
Other 367,968 355,551 309,465 46,086 12,417 10,685 1,732
Projected Percent Change
2010‐2030
Total 30.2% 32.0% 34.1% 26.4% 14.9% 15.1% 14.3%
NH White ‐1.0% ‐0.6% ‐0.4% ‐1.5% ‐3.0% ‐4.0% 0.0%
Black 11.1% 12.5% 14.3% 3.8% ‐8.7% ‐7.5% ‐14.2%
Hispanic 50.1% 51.7% 58.3% 39.1% 35.3% 36.0% 32.9%
Other 84.6% 86.0% 87.2% 79.1% 57.6% 63.8% 35.9%
Number of Counties 254 82 35 47 172 84 88
Source: Texas Demographic Center 2016 Population Projections, 2000-2010 migration scenario. U.S. Department of Agriculture 2013 Rural Urban Continuum Codes
Projected Population of Persons Aged 0‐18 Years by Race and Ethnicity, Texas 2010‐2050
2,463,178 2,467,812 2,469,546 2,461,588 2,438,935 2,366,195 2,310,523 2,278,393 2,258,900
860,281 879,934 901,617 924,721 955,451 984,840 1,007,739 1,026,601 1,045,760
3,487,625 3,843,101 4,219,839 4,649,1815,233,508
5,935,7996,625,020
7,297,8638,015,797
434,758525,369
619,809708,095
802,726
969,709
1,186,342
1,442,153
1,713,960
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
NH Other
Hispanic
NH Black
NH White
19Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2016 Population Projections, 2000-2010 Migration Scenario
Projected Percent of Population of Persons Aged 0‐18 Years by Race and Ethnicity, Texas 2010‐2050
34% 32% 30% 28% 26% 23% 21% 19% 17%
12% 11% 11% 11%10%
10%9% 9% 8%
48% 50% 51% 53% 55% 58% 60% 61% 61%
6% 7% 8% 8% 9% 9% 11% 12% 13%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
NH Other
Hispanic
NH Black
NH White
20Source: Texas Demographic Center, 2016 Population Projections, 2000-2010 Migration Scenario
11.8% 12.2%6.7%
36.5% 33.6%
29.6%
14.2% 23.9%
27.6%27.5%
36.3%
15.9%
32.2%
22.7%24.0%
22.4%
57.7%
37.2%
13.2% 15.0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Black Asian Non‐HispanicWhite
Hispanic All Other
Bachelor, Graduate,Professional Degree
Some College or AssociateDegree
High School or Equivelant
Less than High School
35.9%
69.4%
21
Educational Attainment of Persons Age 25 Years and Older by Race/Ethnicity, Texas, 2015
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1‐Year Sample, 2015
Percent Distribution of Educational Attainment of Persons Aged 25 Years and Older, Texas, 2008, 2011, and 2015
20.4% 18.9% 17.6%
25.4% 25.5% 25.3%
28.8% 29.1% 28.7%
17.1% 17.7% 18.7%
8.3% 8.7% 9.7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2008 2011 2015
Percen
t
Year
Graduate orProfessional Degree
Bachelor Degree
Some College orAssociate Degree
High School orEquivelent
Less than High School
42.9%
57.1%
45.8%
54.2%
22Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1‐Year Samples, 2008‐2015
Contact
State DemographerOffice: (210) 458‐6530Email: [email protected]: Demographics.Texas.gov
Lloyd Potter, Ph.D.
@TexasDemography
23