Summary of predicted climate effects on species

Source: Foden, Mace et al. 2009 IUCN

CLIMATE CHANGE PREDICTIONS BASED ON IPCC EMISSION SCENARIOS

Increases in surface air temperature, IPCC (2007) WGI: The Physical Basis of Climate Change

A2 Medium/high emissions scenario

“Business as usual”

B1 Low emissions scenario

A1B Medium emissions scenario

Vulnerability framework Levels of vulnerability used to grade

species

28 SPECIES STUDIED IDENTIFIED AS HAVING A HIGH VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE:

• Hawksbill Turtle, • Green Turtle, • Balearic Shearwater, • Kemp's Ridley Turtle, • Narwhal, • North Pacific Right

Whale, • Northern Atlantic

Right Whale, • Relict Gull, • Gharial,

• Loggerhead Turtle, • Short-tailed Albatross, • West African Manatee, • Bowhead Whale, • Dama Gazelle, • Leatherback Turtle,• Sociable Plover, • Southern Right Whale, • Olive Ridley, • Addax,

• Red-breasted Goose, • White-naped Crane, • Steller's Eider, • Siberian Crane, • Blue Whale, • Giant Catfish, • Basra Reed-warbler, • Common Sturgeon, • Bermuda Petrel and • Snow Leopard.

RIS light-trap network

Trap operating currentlyTrap no longer operated

> 400 have run at least 1 full year

80 – 100 run annually

56 sites sampled ≥15 years30 sites sampled ≥25 years

Continuous, national record of >400 macro-moth speciesOne of the world’s longest records of contemporary insect biodiversity

Decline in total trap catchesTotal Catch / Site

Year1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Abu

ndan

ce In

dex

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0.0

0.1

0.2

32 % decrease in 35 years

Two fundamental concerns…

• Are we sufficiently aware of the global warming threat?

• Are we sufficiently responding to that threat?

What is a safe temperature/CO2 level?

Current focus is all on 2oC (~450ppm CO2)